ComCat M5.06 (nc73799091), Point Source Results

ComCat M5.06 (nc73799091), Point Source
Num Simulations100000
Start Time2022/10/25 18:42:03 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1666723323660
Duration10 Years
Includes Spontaneous?false
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Config Generated Withu3etas_comcat_event_config_builder.sh --event-id nc73799091 --num-simulations 100000 --days-before 7 --finite-surf-shakemap --finite-surf-shakemap-min-mag 5 --hpc-site USC_CARC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec_hiprio

Table Of Contents

Probabilities Summary Table

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Magnitude1 Hour Prob1 Day Prob1 Week Prob1 Month Prob1 Year Prob10 Year Prob
M≥30.731 (73.11%)0.953 (95.32%)0.982 (98.20%)0.990 (99.05%)0.997 (99.68%)0.998 (99.85%)
95% Conf[72.83% 73.38%][95.18% 95.45%][98.12% 98.29%][98.99% 99.11%][99.64% 99.71%][99.82% 99.87%]
M≥3.50.344 (34.44%)0.631 (63.13%)0.732 (73.23%)0.785 (78.52%)0.846 (84.64%)0.884 (88.45%)
95% Conf[34.14% 34.73%][62.83% 63.43%][72.96% 73.51%][78.26% 78.77%][84.41% 84.86%][88.25% 88.64%]
M≥40.125 (12.52%)0.278 (27.80%)0.353 (35.26%)0.401 (40.11%)0.468 (46.81%)0.520 (51.98%)
95% Conf[12.32% 12.73%][27.52% 28.08%][34.96% 35.55%][39.81% 40.42%][46.51% 47.12%][51.67% 52.29%]
M≥4.50.043 (4.31%)0.102 (10.21%)0.135 (13.48%)0.158 (15.75%)0.194 (19.40%)0.224 (22.44%)
95% Conf[4.19% 4.44%][10.02% 10.40%][13.27% 13.69%][15.53% 15.98%][19.15% 19.64%][22.18% 22.70%]
M≥50.015 (1.49%)0.037 (3.71%)0.050 (4.95%)0.059 (5.90%)0.075 (7.49%)0.088 (8.83%)
95% Conf[1.41% 1.56%][3.59% 3.83%][4.82% 5.09%][5.76% 6.05%][7.33% 7.66%][8.66% 9.01%]
M≥5.060.013 (1.32%)0.033 (3.30%)0.044 (4.43%)0.053 (5.28%)0.067 (6.71%)0.079 (7.93%)
95% Conf[1.25% 1.40%][3.19% 3.42%][4.30% 4.56%][5.15% 5.42%][6.56% 6.87%][7.77% 8.10%]
M≥5.55.40E-3 (0.54%)0.014 (1.39%)0.019 (1.88%)0.023 (2.27%)0.029 (2.91%)0.035 (3.49%)
95% Conf[0.50% 0.59%][1.32% 1.46%][1.79% 1.96%][2.18% 2.36%][2.81% 3.02%][3.38% 3.61%]
M≥62.08E-3 (0.21%)5.66E-3 (0.57%)7.71E-3 (0.77%)9.34E-3 (0.93%)0.012 (1.21%)0.015 (1.47%)
95% Conf[0.18% 0.24%][0.52% 0.61%][0.72% 0.83%][0.88% 1.00%][1.14% 1.28%][1.40% 1.55%]
M≥6.57.60E-4 (0.08%)2.17E-3 (0.22%)3.07E-3 (0.31%)3.82E-3 (0.38%)4.91E-3 (0.49%)6.26E-3 (0.63%)
95% Conf[0.06% 0.10%][0.19% 0.25%][0.27% 0.34%][0.35% 0.42%][0.45% 0.54%][0.58% 0.68%]
M≥72.00E-4 (0.02%)5.90E-4 (0.06%)8.60E-4 (0.09%)1.04E-3 (0.10%)1.40E-3 (0.14%)1.94E-3 (0.19%)
95% Conf[0.01% 0.03%][0.05% 0.08%][0.07% 0.11%][0.09% 0.13%][0.12% 0.17%][0.17% 0.22%]
M≥7.52.00E-5 (0.00%)5.00E-5 (0.01%)1.10E-4 (0.01%)1.60E-4 (0.02%)2.60E-4 (0.03%)3.20E-4 (0.03%)
95% Conf[0.00% 0.01%][0.00% 0.01%][0.01% 0.02%][0.01% 0.03%][0.02% 0.04%][0.02% 0.05%]
M≥80.000 (0.00%)0.000 (0.00%)0.000 (0.00%)1.00E-5 (0.00%)1.00E-5 (0.00%)1.00E-5 (0.00%)
95% Conf[0.00% 0.00%][0.00% 0.00%][0.00% 0.00%][0.00% 0.01%][0.00% 0.01%][0.00% 0.01%]

Magnitude Number Distribution

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10 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode10 yr Probability10 yr Prob 95% Conf10 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.562.47113.000172.00026.00023.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.016 (1.64%)19.071
M≥2.649.61310.000136.00021.00018.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.016 (1.64%)15.139
M≥2.739.4117.000109.00017.00015.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.99% 100.00%]0.016 (1.64%)12.028
M≥2.831.3235.00087.00013.00012.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.99% 100.00%]0.016 (1.64%)9.562
M≥2.924.8743.00070.00010.0009.0001.000 (99.96%)[99.95% 99.97%]0.016 (1.64%)7.593
M≥319.7612.00056.0008.0007.0000.998 (99.85%)[99.82% 99.87%]0.016 (1.64%)6.033
M≥3.115.6951.00045.0007.0005.0000.995 (99.47%)[99.42% 99.51%]0.016 (1.64%)4.795
M≥3.212.4661.00036.0005.0004.0000.985 (98.45%)[98.37% 98.53%]0.016 (1.64%)3.809
M≥3.39.9010.00029.0004.0003.0000.965 (96.49%)[96.38% 96.61%]0.016 (1.64%)3.025
M≥3.47.8620.00023.0003.0002.0000.932 (93.25%)[93.09% 93.40%]0.016 (1.64%)2.399
M≥3.56.2420.00019.0002.0001.0000.884 (88.45%)[88.25% 88.64%]0.016 (1.64%)1.904
M≥3.64.9590.00016.0002.0001.0000.824 (82.38%)[82.14% 82.62%]0.016 (1.64%)1.513
M≥3.73.9430.00013.0001.0001.0000.753 (75.30%)[75.03% 75.57%]0.016 (1.64%)1.203
M≥3.83.1320.00011.0001.0000.0000.676 (67.64%)[67.35% 67.93%]0.016 (1.64%)0.955
M≥3.92.4910.0009.0001.0000.0000.598 (59.77%)[59.47% 60.07%]0.016 (1.64%)0.759
M≥41.9760.0007.0001.0000.0000.520 (51.98%)[51.67% 52.29%]0.016 (1.64%)0.602
M≥4.11.5730.0006.0000.0000.0000.448 (44.82%)[44.51% 45.13%]0.016 (1.64%)0.481
M≥4.21.2490.0005.0000.0000.0000.382 (38.19%)[37.89% 38.49%]0.016 (1.64%)0.383
M≥4.30.9930.0004.0000.0000.0000.322 (32.25%)[31.96% 32.54%]0.016 (1.64%)0.305
M≥4.40.7900.0004.0000.0000.0000.270 (26.97%)[26.70% 27.25%]0.016 (1.64%)0.242
M≥4.50.6280.0003.0000.0000.0000.224 (22.44%)[22.18% 22.70%]0.016 (1.64%)0.192
M≥4.60.4990.0003.0000.0000.0000.187 (18.74%)[18.50% 18.98%]0.016 (1.64%)0.155
M≥4.70.3960.0002.0000.0000.0000.155 (15.46%)[15.24% 15.69%]0.016 (1.64%)0.122
M≥4.80.3170.0002.0000.0000.0000.129 (12.86%)[12.65% 13.07%]0.016 (1.64%)0.098
M≥4.90.2530.0002.0000.0000.0000.107 (10.70%)[10.51% 10.89%]0.016 (1.64%)0.079
M≥50.2020.0002.0000.0000.0000.088 (8.83%)[8.66% 9.01%]0.016 (1.64%)0.064
M≥5.10.1600.0001.0000.0000.0000.073 (7.34%)[7.18% 7.50%]0.016 (1.64%)0.051
M≥5.20.1290.0001.0000.0000.0000.061 (6.11%)[5.96% 6.26%]0.016 (1.64%)0.042
M≥5.30.1030.0001.0000.0000.0000.051 (5.07%)[4.93% 5.20%]0.016 (1.64%)0.034
M≥5.40.0820.0001.0000.0000.0000.042 (4.21%)[4.09% 4.34%]0.016 (1.64%)0.028
M≥5.50.0660.0001.0000.0000.0000.035 (3.49%)[3.38% 3.61%]0.016 (1.64%)0.023
M≥5.60.0520.0001.0000.0000.0000.029 (2.94%)[2.83% 3.04%]0.016 (1.64%)0.019
M≥5.70.0410.0000.0000.0000.0000.024 (2.44%)[2.34% 2.53%]0.016 (1.64%)0.015
M≥5.80.0340.0000.0000.0000.0000.021 (2.08%)[2.00% 2.17%]0.016 (1.64%)0.013
M≥5.90.0260.0000.0000.0000.0000.016 (1.64%)[1.56% 1.72%]0.015 (1.49%)9.90E-3
M≥60.0220.0000.0000.0000.0000.015 (1.47%)[1.40% 1.55%]0.014 (1.40%)8.78E-3
M≥6.10.0140.0000.0000.0000.0008.55E-3 (0.85%)[0.80% 0.91%]8.29E-3 (0.83%)4.67E-3
M≥6.20.0130.0000.0000.0000.0008.44E-3 (0.84%)[0.79% 0.90%]8.23E-3 (0.82%)4.62E-3
M≥6.30.0120.0000.0000.0000.0008.21E-3 (0.82%)[0.77% 0.88%]8.06E-3 (0.81%)4.52E-3
M≥6.40.0110.0000.0000.0000.0007.79E-3 (0.78%)[0.73% 0.84%]7.70E-3 (0.77%)4.31E-3
M≥6.58.28E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.26E-3 (0.63%)[0.58% 0.68%]6.18E-3 (0.62%)3.20E-3
M≥6.67.55E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.93E-3 (0.59%)[0.55% 0.64%]5.88E-3 (0.59%)3.04E-3
M≥6.76.49E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.32E-3 (0.53%)[0.49% 0.58%]5.30E-3 (0.53%)2.68E-3
M≥6.85.55E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.67E-3 (0.47%)[0.43% 0.51%]4.65E-3 (0.46%)2.27E-3
M≥6.93.05E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.62E-3 (0.26%)[0.23% 0.30%]2.61E-3 (0.26%)1.18E-3
M≥72.23E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.94E-3 (0.19%)[0.17% 0.22%]1.93E-3 (0.19%)8.20E-4
M≥7.11.59E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.46E-3 (0.15%)[0.12% 0.17%]1.45E-3 (0.14%)5.80E-4
M≥7.21.00E-30.0000.0000.0000.0009.50E-4 (0.10%)[0.08% 0.12%]9.40E-4 (0.09%)3.80E-4
M≥7.36.90E-40.0000.0000.0000.0006.50E-4 (0.07%)[0.05% 0.08%]6.50E-4 (0.07%)2.50E-4
M≥7.44.40E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.10E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]4.10E-4 (0.04%)1.40E-4
M≥7.53.40E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.05%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)1.10E-4
M≥7.61.50E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.50E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.03%]1.50E-4 (0.01%)2.00E-5
M≥7.74.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)1.00E-5
M≥7.83.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0003.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]3.00E-5 (0.00%)1.00E-5
M≥7.93.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0003.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]3.00E-5 (0.00%)1.00E-5
M≥81.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.11.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 yr Probability1 yr Prob 95% Conf1 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.544.84811.000115.00022.00020.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.34%)16.880
M≥2.635.6098.00092.00018.00015.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.34%)13.399
M≥2.728.2846.00073.00014.00012.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.99% 100.00%]0.013 (1.34%)10.643
M≥2.822.4814.00059.00011.00010.0001.000 (99.98%)[99.97% 99.99%]0.013 (1.34%)8.462
M≥2.917.8503.00047.0009.0007.0000.999 (99.91%)[99.89% 99.93%]0.013 (1.34%)6.717
M≥314.1822.00038.0007.0006.0000.997 (99.68%)[99.64% 99.71%]0.013 (1.34%)5.339
M≥3.111.2671.00031.0005.0004.0000.990 (98.99%)[98.92% 99.05%]0.013 (1.34%)4.244
M≥3.28.9480.00025.0004.0003.0000.974 (97.39%)[97.29% 97.48%]0.013 (1.34%)3.371
M≥3.37.1090.00020.0003.0002.0000.946 (94.60%)[94.46% 94.74%]0.013 (1.34%)2.677
M≥3.45.6460.00016.0003.0002.0000.904 (90.38%)[90.19% 90.56%]0.013 (1.34%)2.124
M≥3.54.4830.00014.0002.0001.0000.846 (84.64%)[84.41% 84.86%]0.013 (1.34%)1.685
M≥3.63.5610.00011.0002.0001.0000.778 (77.77%)[77.51% 78.03%]0.013 (1.34%)1.339
M≥3.72.8300.0009.0001.0000.0000.702 (70.23%)[69.95% 70.52%]0.013 (1.34%)1.065
M≥3.82.2490.0008.0001.0000.0000.624 (62.37%)[62.07% 62.67%]0.013 (1.34%)0.845
M≥3.91.7870.0006.0001.0000.0000.545 (54.47%)[54.16% 54.77%]0.013 (1.34%)0.672
M≥41.4180.0006.0000.0000.0000.468 (46.81%)[46.51% 47.12%]0.013 (1.34%)0.532
M≥4.11.1290.0005.0000.0000.0000.400 (40.03%)[39.72% 40.33%]0.013 (1.34%)0.425
M≥4.20.8980.0004.0000.0000.0000.338 (33.84%)[33.55% 34.14%]0.013 (1.34%)0.338
M≥4.30.7140.0003.0000.0000.0000.283 (28.34%)[28.06% 28.62%]0.013 (1.34%)0.270
M≥4.40.5680.0003.0000.0000.0000.235 (23.49%)[23.22% 23.75%]0.013 (1.34%)0.214
M≥4.50.4520.0003.0000.0000.0000.194 (19.40%)[19.15% 19.64%]0.013 (1.34%)0.169
M≥4.60.3600.0002.0000.0000.0000.161 (16.12%)[15.89% 16.35%]0.013 (1.34%)0.136
M≥4.70.2860.0002.0000.0000.0000.132 (13.25%)[13.04% 13.46%]0.013 (1.34%)0.108
M≥4.80.2290.0002.0000.0000.0000.110 (10.98%)[10.79% 11.17%]0.013 (1.34%)0.087
M≥4.90.1830.0001.0000.0000.0000.091 (9.09%)[8.92% 9.27%]0.013 (1.34%)0.070
M≥50.1460.0001.0000.0000.0000.075 (7.49%)[7.33% 7.66%]0.013 (1.34%)0.056
M≥5.10.1160.0001.0000.0000.0000.062 (6.19%)[6.04% 6.34%]0.013 (1.34%)0.046
M≥5.20.0930.0001.0000.0000.0000.051 (5.12%)[4.98% 5.26%]0.013 (1.34%)0.037
M≥5.30.0750.0001.0000.0000.0000.042 (4.23%)[4.11% 4.36%]0.013 (1.34%)0.030
M≥5.40.0600.0001.0000.0000.0000.035 (3.52%)[3.40% 3.63%]0.013 (1.34%)0.025
M≥5.50.0480.0001.0000.0000.0000.029 (2.91%)[2.81% 3.02%]0.013 (1.34%)0.020
M≥5.60.0390.0000.0000.0000.0000.024 (2.44%)[2.35% 2.54%]0.013 (1.34%)0.017
M≥5.70.0310.0000.0000.0000.0000.020 (2.01%)[1.92% 2.10%]0.013 (1.34%)0.014
M≥5.80.0250.0000.0000.0000.0000.017 (1.71%)[1.63% 1.79%]0.013 (1.34%)0.012
M≥5.90.0190.0000.0000.0000.0000.013 (1.35%)[1.28% 1.42%]0.012 (1.23%)8.90E-3
M≥60.0170.0000.0000.0000.0000.012 (1.21%)[1.14% 1.28%]0.011 (1.15%)7.90E-3
M≥6.10.0100.0000.0000.0000.0006.92E-3 (0.69%)[0.64% 0.75%]6.69E-3 (0.67%)4.23E-3
M≥6.29.51E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.83E-3 (0.68%)[0.63% 0.74%]6.65E-3 (0.66%)4.18E-3
M≥6.38.89E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.65E-3 (0.66%)[0.62% 0.72%]6.53E-3 (0.65%)4.10E-3
M≥6.48.24E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.31E-3 (0.63%)[0.58% 0.68%]6.25E-3 (0.62%)3.92E-3
M≥6.56.12E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.91E-3 (0.49%)[0.45% 0.54%]4.85E-3 (0.48%)2.86E-3
M≥6.65.65E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.66E-3 (0.47%)[0.43% 0.51%]4.61E-3 (0.46%)2.72E-3
M≥6.74.95E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.22E-3 (0.42%)[0.38% 0.46%]4.20E-3 (0.42%)2.45E-3
M≥6.84.22E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.66E-3 (0.37%)[0.33% 0.41%]3.65E-3 (0.36%)2.07E-3
M≥6.92.18E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.92E-3 (0.19%)[0.17% 0.22%]1.91E-3 (0.19%)1.04E-3
M≥71.57E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.40E-3 (0.14%)[0.12% 0.17%]1.39E-3 (0.14%)7.10E-4
M≥7.11.13E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.05E-3 (0.10%)[0.09% 0.13%]1.04E-3 (0.10%)4.90E-4
M≥7.27.10E-40.0000.0000.0000.0006.80E-4 (0.07%)[0.05% 0.09%]6.70E-4 (0.07%)3.20E-4
M≥7.34.90E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.60E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.06%]4.60E-4 (0.05%)2.10E-4
M≥7.43.30E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.10E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]3.10E-4 (0.03%)1.30E-4
M≥7.52.70E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.60E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]2.60E-4 (0.03%)1.00E-4
M≥7.61.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)2.00E-5
M≥7.74.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)1.00E-5
M≥7.83.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0003.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]3.00E-5 (0.00%)1.00E-5
M≥7.93.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0003.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]3.00E-5 (0.00%)1.00E-5
M≥81.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.11.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Month Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 mo Probability1 mo Prob 95% Conf1 mo Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.530.0898.00069.00017.00016.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.010 (1.03%)14.071
M≥2.623.8926.00055.00014.00013.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.010 (1.03%)11.172
M≥2.718.9794.00044.00011.00010.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.010 (1.03%)8.876
M≥2.815.0893.00036.0009.0008.0000.999 (99.92%)[99.90% 99.94%]0.010 (1.03%)7.057
M≥2.911.9762.00029.0007.0006.0000.997 (99.70%)[99.67% 99.74%]0.010 (1.03%)5.602
M≥39.5171.00023.0005.0005.0000.990 (99.05%)[98.99% 99.11%]0.010 (1.03%)4.453
M≥3.17.5591.00019.0004.0003.0000.976 (97.60%)[97.50% 97.69%]0.010 (1.03%)3.537
M≥3.26.0070.00016.0003.0003.0000.950 (95.00%)[94.86% 95.14%]0.010 (1.03%)2.810
M≥3.34.7720.00013.0003.0002.0000.910 (90.99%)[90.81% 91.17%]0.010 (1.03%)2.233
M≥3.43.7900.00011.0002.0001.0000.854 (85.39%)[85.17% 85.61%]0.010 (1.03%)1.771
M≥3.53.0090.0009.0002.0001.0000.785 (78.52%)[78.26% 78.77%]0.010 (1.03%)1.407
M≥3.62.3910.0007.0001.0001.0000.709 (70.87%)[70.59% 71.15%]0.010 (1.03%)1.118
M≥3.71.9000.0006.0001.0000.0000.629 (62.89%)[62.59% 63.19%]0.010 (1.03%)0.889
M≥3.81.5100.0005.0001.0000.0000.550 (54.96%)[54.65% 55.27%]0.010 (1.03%)0.706
M≥3.91.2000.0005.0000.0000.0000.474 (47.37%)[47.06% 47.68%]0.010 (1.03%)0.562
M≥40.9510.0004.0000.0000.0000.401 (40.11%)[39.81% 40.42%]0.010 (1.03%)0.445
M≥4.10.7580.0003.0000.0000.0000.339 (33.93%)[33.63% 34.22%]0.010 (1.03%)0.355
M≥4.20.6040.0003.0000.0000.0000.284 (28.36%)[28.08% 28.64%]0.010 (1.03%)0.283
M≥4.30.4800.0003.0000.0000.0000.235 (23.47%)[23.21% 23.73%]0.010 (1.03%)0.225
M≥4.40.3820.0002.0000.0000.0000.193 (19.25%)[19.01% 19.50%]0.010 (1.03%)0.178
M≥4.50.3030.0002.0000.0000.0000.158 (15.75%)[15.53% 15.98%]0.010 (1.03%)0.141
M≥4.60.2420.0002.0000.0000.0000.130 (12.98%)[12.77% 13.19%]0.010 (1.03%)0.113
M≥4.70.1920.0001.0000.0000.0000.106 (10.58%)[10.39% 10.77%]0.010 (1.03%)0.090
M≥4.80.1540.0001.0000.0000.0000.087 (8.70%)[8.53% 8.88%]0.010 (1.03%)0.072
M≥4.90.1240.0001.0000.0000.0000.072 (7.20%)[7.04% 7.37%]0.010 (1.03%)0.059
M≥50.0980.0001.0000.0000.0000.059 (5.90%)[5.76% 6.05%]0.010 (1.03%)0.047
M≥5.10.0790.0001.0000.0000.0000.049 (4.87%)[4.74% 5.00%]0.010 (1.03%)0.038
M≥5.20.0630.0001.0000.0000.0000.040 (4.02%)[3.90% 4.15%]0.010 (1.03%)0.031
M≥5.30.0510.0001.0000.0000.0000.033 (3.31%)[3.20% 3.42%]0.010 (1.03%)0.025
M≥5.40.0410.0001.0000.0000.0000.027 (2.75%)[2.65% 2.85%]0.010 (1.03%)0.021
M≥5.50.0330.0000.0000.0000.0000.023 (2.27%)[2.18% 2.36%]0.010 (1.03%)0.017
M≥5.60.0270.0000.0000.0000.0000.019 (1.90%)[1.81% 1.98%]0.010 (1.03%)0.014
M≥5.70.0220.0000.0000.0000.0000.016 (1.55%)[1.48% 1.63%]0.010 (1.03%)0.011
M≥5.80.0180.0000.0000.0000.0000.013 (1.33%)[1.26% 1.40%]0.010 (1.03%)9.75E-3
M≥5.90.0140.0000.0000.0000.0000.010 (1.04%)[0.98% 1.11%]9.44E-3 (0.94%)7.55E-3
M≥60.0120.0000.0000.0000.0009.34E-3 (0.93%)[0.88% 1.00%]8.86E-3 (0.89%)6.69E-3
M≥6.17.16E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.33E-3 (0.53%)[0.49% 0.58%]5.18E-3 (0.52%)3.61E-3
M≥6.26.88E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.28E-3 (0.53%)[0.48% 0.58%]5.16E-3 (0.52%)3.58E-3
M≥6.36.53E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.15E-3 (0.52%)[0.47% 0.56%]5.06E-3 (0.51%)3.52E-3
M≥6.46.12E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.90E-3 (0.49%)[0.45% 0.54%]4.85E-3 (0.48%)3.37E-3
M≥6.54.54E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.82E-3 (0.38%)[0.35% 0.42%]3.77E-3 (0.38%)2.49E-3
M≥6.64.28E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.63E-3 (0.36%)[0.33% 0.40%]3.58E-3 (0.36%)2.38E-3
M≥6.73.82E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.34E-3 (0.33%)[0.30% 0.37%]3.32E-3 (0.33%)2.16E-3
M≥6.83.27E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.88E-3 (0.29%)[0.26% 0.32%]2.87E-3 (0.29%)1.80E-3
M≥6.91.65E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.48E-3 (0.15%)[0.13% 0.17%]1.47E-3 (0.15%)8.80E-4
M≥71.14E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.04E-3 (0.10%)[0.09% 0.13%]1.03E-3 (0.10%)5.80E-4
M≥7.18.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0007.70E-4 (0.08%)[0.06% 0.10%]7.60E-4 (0.08%)4.00E-4
M≥7.24.70E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.50E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]4.40E-4 (0.04%)2.40E-4
M≥7.33.10E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.90E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]2.90E-4 (0.03%)1.40E-4
M≥7.42.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.10E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.10E-4 (0.02%)9.00E-5
M≥7.51.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)6.00E-5
M≥7.67.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0007.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]7.00E-5 (0.01%)1.00E-5
M≥7.73.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0003.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]3.00E-5 (0.00%)1.00E-5
M≥7.82.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)1.00E-5
M≥7.92.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)1.00E-5
M≥81.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.11.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Week Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 wk Probability1 wk Prob 95% Conf1 wk Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.522.5657.00049.00015.00013.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)12.194
M≥2.617.9145.00039.00012.00010.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.99% 100.00%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)9.679
M≥2.714.2233.00031.0009.0008.0001.000 (99.97%)[99.96% 99.98%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)7.688
M≥2.811.3112.00026.0007.0006.0000.998 (99.80%)[99.77% 99.83%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)6.114
M≥2.98.9801.00021.0006.0005.0000.993 (99.32%)[99.27% 99.37%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)4.854
M≥37.1381.00017.0004.0004.0000.982 (98.20%)[98.12% 98.29%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)3.858
M≥3.15.6690.00014.0004.0003.0000.960 (95.99%)[95.86% 96.11%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)3.065
M≥3.24.5050.00012.0003.0002.0000.924 (92.40%)[92.23% 92.56%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)2.436
M≥3.33.5790.00010.0002.0001.0000.873 (87.34%)[87.14% 87.55%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)1.936
M≥3.42.8430.0008.0002.0001.0000.808 (80.76%)[80.52% 81.01%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)1.536
M≥3.52.2570.0007.0001.0001.0000.732 (73.23%)[72.96% 73.51%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)1.220
M≥3.61.7930.0006.0001.0000.0000.651 (65.09%)[64.79% 65.39%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)0.969
M≥3.71.4240.0005.0001.0000.0000.570 (56.99%)[56.68% 57.30%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)0.771
M≥3.81.1310.0004.0000.0000.0000.492 (49.23%)[48.92% 49.55%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)0.611
M≥3.90.8980.0004.0000.0000.0000.420 (42.00%)[41.69% 42.30%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)0.486
M≥40.7130.0003.0000.0000.0000.353 (35.26%)[34.96% 35.55%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)0.385
M≥4.10.5690.0003.0000.0000.0000.296 (29.60%)[29.31% 29.88%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)0.308
M≥4.20.4530.0002.0000.0000.0000.246 (24.60%)[24.34% 24.87%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)0.245
M≥4.30.3600.0002.0000.0000.0000.203 (20.27%)[20.02% 20.52%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)0.195
M≥4.40.2870.0002.0000.0000.0000.165 (16.55%)[16.32% 16.78%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)0.154
M≥4.50.2270.0002.0000.0000.0000.135 (13.48%)[13.27% 13.69%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)0.122
M≥4.60.1810.0001.0000.0000.0000.111 (11.06%)[10.87% 11.26%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)0.098
M≥4.70.1440.0001.0000.0000.0000.090 (8.98%)[8.80% 9.16%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)0.078
M≥4.80.1160.0001.0000.0000.0000.074 (7.37%)[7.21% 7.54%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)0.063
M≥4.90.0930.0001.0000.0000.0000.061 (6.07%)[5.92% 6.22%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)0.051
M≥50.0740.0001.0000.0000.0000.050 (4.95%)[4.82% 5.09%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)0.041
M≥5.10.0600.0001.0000.0000.0000.041 (4.08%)[3.96% 4.20%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)0.033
M≥5.20.0480.0001.0000.0000.0000.034 (3.36%)[3.25% 3.47%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)0.027
M≥5.30.0390.0001.0000.0000.0000.028 (2.75%)[2.65% 2.86%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)0.022
M≥5.40.0320.0000.0000.0000.0000.023 (2.28%)[2.19% 2.38%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)0.018
M≥5.50.0250.0000.0000.0000.0000.019 (1.88%)[1.79% 1.96%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)0.015
M≥5.60.0210.0000.0000.0000.0000.016 (1.57%)[1.49% 1.65%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)0.012
M≥5.70.0170.0000.0000.0000.0000.013 (1.28%)[1.21% 1.35%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)9.97E-3
M≥5.80.0140.0000.0000.0000.0000.011 (1.09%)[1.03% 1.16%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)8.48E-3
M≥5.90.0110.0000.0000.0000.0008.59E-3 (0.86%)[0.80% 0.92%]7.74E-3 (0.77%)6.54E-3
M≥69.53E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.71E-3 (0.77%)[0.72% 0.83%]7.28E-3 (0.73%)5.83E-3
M≥6.15.54E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.37E-3 (0.44%)[0.40% 0.48%]4.25E-3 (0.43%)3.21E-3
M≥6.25.39E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.33E-3 (0.43%)[0.39% 0.48%]4.24E-3 (0.42%)3.18E-3
M≥6.35.12E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.22E-3 (0.42%)[0.38% 0.46%]4.15E-3 (0.41%)3.12E-3
M≥6.44.79E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-3 (0.40%)[0.36% 0.44%]3.96E-3 (0.40%)2.97E-3
M≥6.53.50E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.07E-3 (0.31%)[0.27% 0.34%]3.03E-3 (0.30%)2.21E-3
M≥6.63.33E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.93E-3 (0.29%)[0.26% 0.33%]2.89E-3 (0.29%)2.13E-3
M≥6.72.97E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.69E-3 (0.27%)[0.24% 0.30%]2.67E-3 (0.27%)1.91E-3
M≥6.82.52E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.29E-3 (0.23%)[0.20% 0.26%]2.28E-3 (0.23%)1.61E-3
M≥6.91.32E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.23E-3 (0.12%)[0.10% 0.15%]1.22E-3 (0.12%)8.30E-4
M≥79.10E-40.0000.0000.0000.0008.60E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]8.50E-4 (0.08%)5.60E-4
M≥7.16.30E-40.0000.0000.0000.0006.30E-4 (0.06%)[0.05% 0.08%]6.20E-4 (0.06%)3.80E-4
M≥7.23.70E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.70E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.05%]3.60E-4 (0.04%)2.30E-4
M≥7.32.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.20E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.20E-4 (0.02%)1.30E-4
M≥7.41.40E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.40E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)8.00E-5
M≥7.51.10E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.10E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.10E-4 (0.01%)6.00E-5
M≥7.64.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)1.00E-5
M≥7.72.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)1.00E-5
M≥7.81.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)1.00E-5
M≥7.91.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)1.00E-5
M≥80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Day Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 d Probability1 d Prob 95% Conf1 d Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.514.4394.00028.00011.00010.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.98% 100.00%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)9.373
M≥2.611.4643.00023.0008.0007.0000.999 (99.94%)[99.93% 99.96%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)7.438
M≥2.79.1032.00019.0007.0006.0000.998 (99.75%)[99.72% 99.78%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)5.911
M≥2.87.2371.00016.0005.0005.0000.992 (99.16%)[99.10% 99.22%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)4.699
M≥2.95.7471.00013.0004.0004.0000.978 (97.76%)[97.67% 97.85%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)3.732
M≥34.5670.00011.0003.0003.0000.953 (95.32%)[95.18% 95.45%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)2.967
M≥3.13.6260.0009.0002.0002.0000.914 (91.36%)[91.18% 91.53%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)2.357
M≥3.22.8810.0008.0002.0001.0000.859 (85.88%)[85.66% 86.09%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)1.874
M≥3.32.2910.0007.0001.0001.0000.791 (79.07%)[78.82% 79.32%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)1.489
M≥3.41.8190.0006.0001.0001.0000.713 (71.26%)[70.98% 71.54%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)1.182
M≥3.51.4450.0005.0001.0000.0000.631 (63.13%)[62.83% 63.43%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)0.940
M≥3.61.1470.0004.0001.0000.0000.549 (54.85%)[54.54% 55.16%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)0.746
M≥3.70.9130.0004.0000.0000.0000.471 (47.06%)[46.75% 47.37%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)0.594
M≥3.80.7250.0003.0000.0000.0000.399 (39.90%)[39.59% 40.20%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)0.472
M≥3.90.5770.0003.0000.0000.0000.335 (33.51%)[33.22% 33.80%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)0.376
M≥40.4580.0002.0000.0000.0000.278 (27.80%)[27.52% 28.08%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)0.298
M≥4.10.3660.0002.0000.0000.0000.231 (23.05%)[22.79% 23.31%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)0.238
M≥4.20.2910.0002.0000.0000.0000.189 (18.88%)[18.64% 19.13%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)0.189
M≥4.30.2320.0002.0000.0000.0000.154 (15.45%)[15.22% 15.67%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)0.151
M≥4.40.1840.0001.0000.0000.0000.126 (12.56%)[12.35% 12.77%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)0.119
M≥4.50.1470.0001.0000.0000.0000.102 (10.21%)[10.02% 10.40%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)0.095
M≥4.60.1170.0001.0000.0000.0000.083 (8.34%)[8.17% 8.51%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)0.076
M≥4.70.0930.0001.0000.0000.0000.067 (6.72%)[6.56% 6.87%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)0.060
M≥4.80.0750.0001.0000.0000.0000.055 (5.51%)[5.37% 5.65%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)0.049
M≥4.90.0610.0001.0000.0000.0000.045 (4.55%)[4.42% 4.68%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)0.040
M≥50.0490.0001.0000.0000.0000.037 (3.71%)[3.59% 3.83%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)0.032
M≥5.10.0390.0001.0000.0000.0000.030 (3.03%)[2.93% 3.14%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)0.026
M≥5.20.0320.0000.0000.0000.0000.025 (2.49%)[2.39% 2.59%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)0.021
M≥5.30.0260.0000.0000.0000.0000.020 (2.05%)[1.96% 2.14%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)0.017
M≥5.40.0210.0000.0000.0000.0000.017 (1.70%)[1.63% 1.79%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)0.014
M≥5.50.0170.0000.0000.0000.0000.014 (1.39%)[1.32% 1.46%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)0.012
M≥5.60.0140.0000.0000.0000.0000.012 (1.16%)[1.09% 1.23%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)9.76E-3
M≥5.70.0110.0000.0000.0000.0009.40E-3 (0.94%)[0.88% 1.00%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)7.92E-3
M≥5.89.63E-30.0000.0000.0000.0008.11E-3 (0.81%)[0.76% 0.87%]6.35E-3 (0.64%)6.75E-3
M≥5.97.46E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.34E-3 (0.63%)[0.59% 0.69%]5.75E-3 (0.57%)5.23E-3
M≥66.58E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.66E-3 (0.57%)[0.52% 0.61%]5.39E-3 (0.54%)4.65E-3
M≥6.13.74E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.16E-3 (0.32%)[0.28% 0.35%]3.06E-3 (0.31%)2.52E-3
M≥6.23.67E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.13E-3 (0.31%)[0.28% 0.35%]3.06E-3 (0.31%)2.50E-3
M≥6.33.52E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.06E-3 (0.31%)[0.27% 0.34%]3.01E-3 (0.30%)2.46E-3
M≥6.43.33E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.91E-3 (0.29%)[0.26% 0.33%]2.89E-3 (0.29%)2.34E-3
M≥6.52.40E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.17E-3 (0.22%)[0.19% 0.25%]2.15E-3 (0.21%)1.70E-3
M≥6.62.28E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.08E-3 (0.21%)[0.18% 0.24%]2.06E-3 (0.21%)1.64E-3
M≥6.72.01E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.88E-3 (0.19%)[0.16% 0.22%]1.87E-3 (0.19%)1.45E-3
M≥6.81.74E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.63E-3 (0.16%)[0.14% 0.19%]1.63E-3 (0.16%)1.23E-3
M≥6.98.70E-40.0000.0000.0000.0008.50E-4 (0.08%)[0.07% 0.11%]8.50E-4 (0.08%)6.30E-4
M≥76.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.90E-4 (0.06%)[0.05% 0.08%]5.90E-4 (0.06%)4.30E-4
M≥7.14.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.20E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]4.20E-4 (0.04%)2.90E-4
M≥7.22.10E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.10E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.10E-4 (0.02%)1.80E-4
M≥7.31.30E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.30E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.30E-4 (0.01%)1.10E-4
M≥7.48.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0008.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)6.00E-5
M≥7.55.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0005.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]5.00E-5 (0.01%)4.00E-5
M≥7.62.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)1.00E-5
M≥7.72.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)1.00E-5
M≥7.81.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)1.00E-5
M≥7.91.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)1.00E-5
M≥80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Hour Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 hr Probability1 hr Prob 95% Conf1 hr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.54.7361.00010.0004.0004.0000.984 (98.36%)[98.28% 98.44%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)4.115
M≥2.63.7590.0008.0003.0003.0000.962 (96.19%)[96.07% 96.30%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)3.266
M≥2.72.9870.0007.0003.0002.0000.927 (92.69%)[92.53% 92.85%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)2.595
M≥2.82.3750.0006.0002.0002.0000.874 (87.41%)[87.20% 87.61%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)2.062
M≥2.91.8880.0005.0002.0001.0000.808 (80.77%)[80.53% 81.02%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)1.638
M≥31.5010.0005.0001.0001.0000.731 (73.11%)[72.83% 73.38%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)1.301
M≥3.11.1940.0004.0001.0001.0000.650 (64.98%)[64.69% 65.28%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)1.035
M≥3.20.9490.0003.0001.0000.0000.567 (56.67%)[56.36% 56.98%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)0.823
M≥3.30.7540.0003.0000.0000.0000.486 (48.57%)[48.26% 48.88%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)0.653
M≥3.40.5980.0003.0000.0000.0000.410 (41.05%)[40.74% 41.35%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)0.518
M≥3.50.4760.0002.0000.0000.0000.344 (34.44%)[34.14% 34.73%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)0.413
M≥3.60.3770.0002.0000.0000.0000.284 (28.41%)[28.13% 28.69%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)0.327
M≥3.70.3000.0002.0000.0000.0000.234 (23.44%)[23.17% 23.70%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)0.261
M≥3.80.2380.0002.0000.0000.0000.191 (19.12%)[18.87% 19.36%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)0.207
M≥3.90.1880.0001.0000.0000.0000.155 (15.55%)[15.32% 15.77%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)0.164
M≥40.1490.0001.0000.0000.0000.125 (12.52%)[12.32% 12.73%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)0.130
M≥4.10.1200.0001.0000.0000.0000.102 (10.20%)[10.01% 10.39%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)0.104
M≥4.20.0950.0001.0000.0000.0000.082 (8.22%)[8.05% 8.40%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)0.083
M≥4.30.0770.0001.0000.0000.0000.066 (6.65%)[6.50% 6.81%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)0.067
M≥4.40.0610.0001.0000.0000.0000.054 (5.36%)[5.23% 5.51%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)0.053
M≥4.50.0490.0001.0000.0000.0000.043 (4.31%)[4.19% 4.44%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)0.042
M≥4.60.0390.0001.0000.0000.0000.035 (3.48%)[3.37% 3.60%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)0.034
M≥4.70.0310.0001.0000.0000.0000.027 (2.74%)[2.64% 2.84%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)0.027
M≥4.80.0250.0000.0000.0000.0000.022 (2.23%)[2.13% 2.32%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)0.021
M≥4.90.0200.0000.0000.0000.0000.018 (1.83%)[1.75% 1.92%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)0.017
M≥50.0160.0000.0000.0000.0000.015 (1.49%)[1.41% 1.56%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)0.014
M≥5.10.0130.0000.0000.0000.0000.012 (1.21%)[1.15% 1.29%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)0.011
M≥5.20.0110.0000.0000.0000.0000.010 (1.00%)[0.94% 1.07%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)9.45E-3
M≥5.38.79E-30.0000.0000.0000.0008.15E-3 (0.81%)[0.76% 0.87%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)7.66E-3
M≥5.47.15E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.60E-3 (0.66%)[0.61% 0.71%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)6.22E-3
M≥5.55.83E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.40E-3 (0.54%)[0.50% 0.59%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)5.05E-3
M≥5.64.85E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.53E-3 (0.45%)[0.41% 0.50%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)4.25E-3
M≥5.73.88E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.64E-3 (0.36%)[0.33% 0.40%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)3.40E-3
M≥5.83.25E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.05E-3 (0.30%)[0.27% 0.34%]2.37E-3 (0.24%)2.84E-3
M≥5.92.51E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.33E-3 (0.23%)[0.20% 0.27%]2.13E-3 (0.21%)2.13E-3
M≥62.24E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.08E-3 (0.21%)[0.18% 0.24%]1.99E-3 (0.20%)1.90E-3
M≥6.11.30E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.21E-3 (0.12%)[0.10% 0.15%]1.18E-3 (0.12%)1.11E-3
M≥6.21.29E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.20E-3 (0.12%)[0.10% 0.14%]1.18E-3 (0.12%)1.10E-3
M≥6.31.25E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.17E-3 (0.12%)[0.10% 0.14%]1.16E-3 (0.12%)1.09E-3
M≥6.41.21E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.13E-3 (0.11%)[0.09% 0.14%]1.12E-3 (0.11%)1.06E-3
M≥6.58.10E-40.0000.0000.0000.0007.60E-4 (0.08%)[0.06% 0.10%]7.50E-4 (0.07%)7.20E-4
M≥6.67.90E-40.0000.0000.0000.0007.40E-4 (0.07%)[0.06% 0.09%]7.30E-4 (0.07%)7.00E-4
M≥6.77.10E-40.0000.0000.0000.0006.60E-4 (0.07%)[0.05% 0.08%]6.60E-4 (0.07%)6.20E-4
M≥6.86.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.70E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.07%]5.70E-4 (0.06%)5.30E-4
M≥6.93.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.10E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]3.10E-4 (0.03%)2.70E-4
M≥72.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)1.60E-4
M≥7.11.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)7.00E-5
M≥7.25.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0005.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]5.00E-5 (0.01%)4.00E-5
M≥7.33.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0003.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]3.00E-5 (0.00%)3.00E-5
M≥7.42.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)2.00E-5
M≥7.52.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)2.00E-5
M≥7.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Hazard Change Over Time

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These plots show how the probability of ruptures of various magnitudes within the region used to fetch ComCat trigger ruptures changes over time

M≥5.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard ChangeGain
Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour0.014 [0.014 - 0.015]0.0141.43E-5995.051.31E-5
1 Day0.036 [0.035 - 0.037]0.0363.44E-4104.53.15E-4
1 Week0.050 [0.048 - 0.051]0.0472.40E-320.632.20E-3
1 Month0.066 [0.064 - 0.067]0.0560.0106.419.41E-3
1 Year0.181 [0.179 - 0.182]0.0710.1181.530.109
10 Years0.738 [0.737 - 0.738]0.0840.7141.030.684
30 Years0.978 [0.978 - 0.978] **0.9761 *0.968
100 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **1.0001 *1.000

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥6.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard ChangeGain
Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour2.01E-3 [1.75E-3 - 2.32E-3]2.01E-33.32E-6606.352.22E-6
1 Day5.47E-3 [5.03E-3 - 5.95E-3]5.39E-37.97E-568.635.33E-5
1 Week7.90E-3 [7.39E-3 - 8.46E-3]7.35E-35.58E-414.173.73E-4
1 Month0.011 [0.011 - 0.012]8.90E-32.39E-34.721.60E-3
1 Year0.040 [0.039 - 0.041]0.0120.0291.390.019
10 Years0.260 [0.259 - 0.260]0.0140.2491.040.177
30 Years0.568 [0.567 - 0.568] **0.5611.01 *0.442
100 Years0.901 [0.901 - 0.901] **0.8991 *0.857

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥7.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard ChangeGain
Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour2.01E-4 [1.26E-4 - 3.16E-4]2.00E-47.81E-7257.144.91E-7
1 Day5.89E-4 [4.54E-4 - 7.63E-4]5.70E-41.87E-531.421.18E-5
1 Week9.51E-4 [7.87E-4 - 1.15E-3]8.20E-41.31E-47.258.25E-5
1 Month1.55E-3 [1.37E-3 - 1.77E-3]9.90E-45.62E-42.763.54E-4
1 Year8.16E-3 [7.95E-3 - 8.41E-3]1.35E-36.82E-31.24.30E-3
10 Years0.068 [0.068 - 0.068]1.84E-30.0661.030.042
30 Years0.186 [0.186 - 0.186] **0.1841.01 *0.121
100 Years0.457 [0.457 - 0.457] **0.4561 *0.350

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

Trigger Rupture Fault Map

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Map

Fault Distances To Triggers

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Section NameStrike, Dip, RakeHypocenter In Polygon?Surface In Polygon?Minimum Distance (km)Minimum Poly Distance (km)
Calaveras (Central) 2011 CFM329, 77, 180truetrue0.5860.000
Hayward (So) extension 2011 CFM326, 48, 135falsefalse2.1481.202
Silver Creek 2011 CFM322, 75, 180falsefalse5.7340.270
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM322, 76, 180falsefalse14.41514.362
Monte Vista - Shannon 2011 CFM121, 61, 90falsefalse16.16311.337
Greenville (So) 2011 CFM347, 87, 180falsefalse17.4085.976

Individual Simulated Catalog Maps

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These are map plots of individual catalogs from the simulations, selected as the closest catalog to each of the given percentiles in terms of total number of events.

Durationp0.0 %-ilep25.0 %-ilep50.0 %-ilep75.0 %-ilep90.0 %-ilep95.0 %-ilep97.5 %-ilep98.0 %-ilep99.0 %-ilep99.5 %-ilep99.9 %-ilep99.999 %-ile
1 WeekMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap
1 MonthMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap
1 YearMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap
10 YearMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap

ComCat Data Comparisons

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These plots compare simulated sequences with data from ComCat. All plots only consider events with hypocenters inside the ComCat region defined in the JSON input file.

Last updated at 2022/10/26 03:52:48 UTC, 9.2 hours after the simulation start time.

Total matching ComCat events found: 16

ComCat Magnitude-Number Distributions

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Incremental MNDCumulative MND
Incremental MNDCumi MND

ComCat Magnitude-Time Functions

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These plots show the show the magnitude versus time probability function since simulation start. Observed event data lie on top, with those input to the simulation plotted as magenta circles and those that occurred after the simulation start time as cyan circles. Time is relative to the mainshock (M5.06, nc73799091, plotted as a brown circle). Probabilities are only shown above the minimum simulated magnitude, M=2.5.

One Week
One Month
Full Mag/Time

ComCat Time-Dependent Mc

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The following plots compare simulation results with ComCat data above a magnitude threshold. Plots labeled as M≥Mc(t) use the time-dependent magnitude of completeness (Mc) defined in Helmstetter et al. (2006), which is plotted below. In the case of multiple M≥5 ruptures, either as input to the simulation or in the comparison data, the maximum calculated time-dependent Mc is used. This time-dependent Mc function is plotted below.

TD MC

ComCat Cumulative Number Vs Time

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M≥Mc(t)M≥2.5M≥3M≥3.5M≥4M≥4.5M≥5
MNDMNDMNDMNDMNDMNDMND

ComCat Cumulative Number Simulation Percentiles

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MND

ComCat Probability Spatial Distribution

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Note: maps labeled 'Forecast' are for a duration that extends into the future, only forecasted values are plotted (ComCat data omitted)

Current (9.2 Hour)Forecast: 1 DayForecast: 1 WeekForecast: 1 MonthForecast: 1 Year
M≥Mc(t)MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 99.94%, Actual: 3Prob: 99.99%Prob: 100.00%Prob: 100.00%Prob: 100.00%
M≥2.5MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 99.95%, Actual: 3Prob: 99.99%Prob: 100.00%Prob: 100.00%Prob: 100.00%
M≥3MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 91.34%, Actual: 1Prob: 94.71%Prob: 97.91%Prob: 98.85%Prob: 99.58%
M≥3.5MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 54.58%, Actual: 1Prob: 61.57%Prob: 71.74%Prob: 77.07%Prob: 83.36%
M≥4MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 22.57%, Actual: 0Prob: 26.82%Prob: 34.01%Prob: 38.68%Prob: 45.18%
M≥4.5MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 8.05%, Actual: 0Prob: 9.77%Prob: 12.86%Prob: 15.02%Prob: 18.47%
M≥5MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 2.85%, Actual: 0Prob: 3.56%Prob: 4.72%Prob: 5.60%Prob: 7.10%
M≥5.5MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 1.07%, Actual: 0Prob: 1.33%Prob: 1.79%Prob: 2.15%Prob: 2.75%
M≥6MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 0.43%, Actual: 0Prob: 0.53%Prob: 0.73%Prob: 0.88%Prob: 1.15%

ComCat Mean Expectation Spatial Distribution

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Note: maps labeled 'Forecast' are for a duration that extends into the future, only forecasted values are plotted (ComCat data omitted)

Current (9.2 Hour)Forecast: 1 DayForecast: 1 WeekForecast: 1 MonthForecast: 1 Year
M≥Mc(t)MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 9.290, Actual: 3Mean: 11.953Mean: 17.746Mean: 22.501Mean: 31.370
M≥2.5MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 9.605, Actual: 3Mean: 12.269Mean: 18.061Mean: 22.816Mean: 31.685
M≥3MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 3.045, Actual: 1Mean: 3.883Mean: 5.721Mean: 7.224Mean: 10.028
M≥3.5MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 0.965, Actual: 1Mean: 1.230Mean: 1.809Mean: 2.284Mean: 3.168
M≥4MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 0.304, Actual: 0Mean: 0.390Mean: 0.571Mean: 0.721Mean: 1.002
M≥4.5MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 0.098, Actual: 0Mean: 0.125Mean: 0.183Mean: 0.230Mean: 0.320
M≥5MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 0.032, Actual: 0Mean: 0.042Mean: 0.060Mean: 0.075Mean: 0.104
M≥5.5MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 0.012, Actual: 0Mean: 0.015Mean: 0.021Mean: 0.026Mean: 0.036
M≥6MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 4.58E-3, Actual: 0Mean: 5.82E-3Mean: 8.12E-3Mean: 0.010Mean: 0.013

ComCat Depth Distribution

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M≥Mc(t)M≥2.5M≥3M≥3.5M≥4M≥4.5M≥5M≥5.5M≥6
Depth DistributionDepth DistributionDepth DistributionDepth DistributionDepth DistributionDepth DistributionDepth DistributionDepth DistributionDepth Distribution

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min Mag1 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)10 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)10 yr Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 63 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
Hayward (So) extension 2011 CFM0.014255.04E-3 (0.50%)[0.46% 0.55%]6.76E-3 (0.68%)[0.63% 0.73%]8.32E-3 (0.83%)[0.78% 0.89%]0.011 (1.10%)[1.04% 1.17%]0.013 (1.34%)[1.27% 1.42%]0.00737
Calaveras (Central) 2011 CFM0.006592.14E-3 (0.21%)[0.19% 0.25%]2.93E-3 (0.29%)[0.26% 0.33%]3.63E-3 (0.36%)[0.33% 0.40%]4.77E-3 (0.48%)[0.44% 0.52%]5.91E-3 (0.59%)[0.54% 0.64%]0.00323
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.005441.56E-3 (0.16%)[0.13% 0.18%]2.23E-3 (0.22%)[0.20% 0.25%]2.87E-3 (0.29%)[0.26% 0.32%]3.84E-3 (0.38%)[0.35% 0.42%]5.00E-3 (0.50%)[0.46% 0.55%]0.00217
Calaveras (So) 2011 CFM0.001513.90E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.05%]5.80E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.08%]7.50E-4 (0.07%)[0.06% 0.09%]1.07E-3 (0.11%)[0.09% 0.13%]1.46E-3 (0.15%)[0.12% 0.17%]6.7E-4
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.00151.70E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]3.80E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.05%]5.80E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.08%]8.90E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.4E-4
Calaveras (So) - Paicines extension 2011 CFM0.001273.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]4.50E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]5.60E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.07%]7.80E-4 (0.08%)[0.06% 0.10%]1.09E-3 (0.11%)[0.09% 0.13%]4.7E-4
Calaveras (No) 2011 CFM0.001073.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]4.50E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]5.80E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.08%]7.70E-4 (0.08%)[0.06% 0.10%]1.05E-3 (0.10%)[0.09% 0.13%]3.8E-4
Mission (connected) 2011 CFM7.6E-42.20E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]3.10E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]5.10E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]7.50E-4 (0.07%)[0.06% 0.09%]2.2E-4
Hayward (No) 2011 CFM5.4E-41.10E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.80E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]3.80E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.05%]5.30E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]1.5E-4
Greenville (So) 2011 CFM4.9E-41.50E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.90E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]3.60E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.05%]4.90E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]1.6E-4

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 55 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.005141.53E-3 (0.15%)[0.13% 0.18%]2.19E-3 (0.22%)[0.19% 0.25%]2.83E-3 (0.28%)[0.25% 0.32%]3.77E-3 (0.38%)[0.34% 0.42%]4.80E-3 (0.48%)[0.44% 0.53%]0.00215
Calaveras (Central) 2011 CFM0.004111.33E-3 (0.13%)[0.11% 0.16%]1.83E-3 (0.18%)[0.16% 0.21%]2.34E-3 (0.23%)[0.21% 0.27%]3.00E-3 (0.30%)[0.27% 0.34%]3.89E-3 (0.39%)[0.35% 0.43%]0.00198
Hayward (So) extension 2011 CFM0.002748.70E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.23E-3 (0.12%)[0.10% 0.15%]1.54E-3 (0.15%)[0.13% 0.18%]2.02E-3 (0.20%)[0.18% 0.23%]2.54E-3 (0.25%)[0.22% 0.29%]0.00119
Calaveras (So) 2011 CFM0.001483.90E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.05%]5.80E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.08%]7.40E-4 (0.07%)[0.06% 0.09%]1.06E-3 (0.11%)[0.09% 0.13%]1.45E-3 (0.14%)[0.12% 0.17%]6.7E-4
Calaveras (So) - Paicines extension 2011 CFM0.001133.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]4.50E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]5.60E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.07%]7.80E-4 (0.08%)[0.06% 0.10%]1.08E-3 (0.11%)[0.09% 0.13%]4.7E-4
Calaveras (No) 2011 CFM0.001043.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]4.50E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]5.70E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.07%]7.50E-4 (0.07%)[0.06% 0.09%]1.02E-3 (0.10%)[0.08% 0.12%]3.8E-4
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM5.9E-49.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.30E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.70E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]1.4E-4
Hayward (No) 2011 CFM5.4E-41.10E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.80E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]3.80E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.05%]5.30E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]1.5E-4
Mission (connected) 2011 CFM4.5E-41.50E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.10E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.50E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]4.50E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]1.9E-4
Rodgers Creek - Healdsburg 2011 CFM3.3E-43.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.50E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.02% 0.04%]3.30E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.05%]1.1E-4

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 44 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
Calaveras (Central) 2011 CFM0.001524.10E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]6.10E-4 (0.06%)[0.05% 0.08%]7.40E-4 (0.07%)[0.06% 0.09%]1.07E-3 (0.11%)[0.09% 0.13%]1.49E-3 (0.15%)[0.13% 0.18%]6.3E-4
Calaveras (So) 2011 CFM0.001213.10E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]4.80E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.06%]5.90E-4 (0.06%)[0.05% 0.08%]8.60E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.19E-3 (0.12%)[0.10% 0.14%]5.3E-4
Calaveras (So) - Paicines extension 2011 CFM0.001012.70E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]4.10E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]5.10E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]7.30E-4 (0.07%)[0.06% 0.09%]1.01E-3 (0.10%)[0.08% 0.12%]4.3E-4
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM8.8E-42.50E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]3.90E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.05%]5.10E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]6.70E-4 (0.07%)[0.05% 0.09%]8.70E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]3.6E-4
Calaveras (No) 2011 CFM6.1E-41.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.50E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.05% 0.08%]2.6E-4
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM4.5E-48.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.30E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]4.10E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]1.4E-4
Hayward (No) 2011 CFM4.4E-48.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]2.20E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]3.10E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]4.30E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]1.4E-4
Hayward (So) extension 2011 CFM4.2E-41.50E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.10E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.70E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]3.10E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]4.10E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]1.6E-4
Rodgers Creek - Healdsburg 2011 CFM3.3E-43.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.50E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.02% 0.04%]3.30E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.05%]1.1E-4
Franklin 2011 CFM1.5E-45.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]7.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]9.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.10E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.50E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.03%]3.0E-5

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 29 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
Calaveras (Central) 2011 CFM2.8E-44.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]2.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.02% 0.04%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]1.1E-4
Hayward (No) 2011 CFM2.5E-42.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]7.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.10E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.50E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]9.0E-5
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM2.5E-42.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]7.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.10E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.50E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]9.0E-5
Rodgers Creek - Healdsburg 2011 CFM2.5E-42.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]7.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.10E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.50E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]9.0E-5
Calaveras (So) 2011 CFM2.3E-42.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]7.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.90E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.30E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]9.0E-5
Calaveras (So) - Paicines extension 2011 CFM1.9E-42.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]6.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]9.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.50E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.03%]1.90E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]6.0E-5
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM1.1E-41.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]5.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.10E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]2.0E-5
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM4.0E-50.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]0.0
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM4.0E-50.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]0.0
San Andreas (Big Bend)3.0E-51.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]3.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]3.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.0E-5

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 12 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (Big Bend)1.0E-50.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]0.0
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev1.0E-50.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]0.0
San Andreas (Cholame) rev1.0E-50.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]0.0
San Andreas (Coachella) rev1.0E-50.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]0.0
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM1.0E-50.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]0.0
San Andreas (Mojave N)1.0E-50.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]0.0
San Andreas (Mojave S)1.0E-50.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]0.0
San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek)1.0E-50.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]0.0
San Andreas (Parkfield)1.0E-50.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]0.0
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM1.0E-50.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]0.0

Fault Magnitude-Probability Distributions

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The first 5 sections (sorted by trigger rate) are plotted below. All fault MPDs are available here

1 Week1 Month1 Year10 Year
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥2.5Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 100000,
  "duration": 10.0,
  "startTimeMillis": 1666723323660,
  "includeSpontaneous": false,
  "randomSeed": 1666724812547,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "ComCat M5.06 (nc73799091), Point Source",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2022_10_25-ComCatM5p06_nc73799091_PointSource",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "triggerRuptures": [
    {
      "occurrenceTimeMillis": 1666723322660,
      "comcatEventID": "nc73799091",
      "mag": 5.06,
      "latitude": 37.3105011,
      "longitude": -121.6774979,
      "depth": 6.88
    }
  ],
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.29,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "maxPointSourceMag": 10.0,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_comcat_event_config_builder.sh --event-id nc73799091 --num-simulations 100000 --days-before 7 --finite-surf-shakemap --finite-surf-shakemap-min-mag 5 --hpc-site USC_CARC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec_hiprio",
  "configTime": 1666724812547,
  "comcatMetadata": {
    "region": {
      "centerLatitude": 37.3105011,
      "centerLongitude": -121.6774979,
      "radius": 20
    },
    "eventID": "nc73799091",
    "minDepth": -10.0,
    "maxDepth": 24.0,
    "minMag": 2.5,
    "startTime": 1666118522660,
    "endTime": 1666723322660
  }
}