Start 1919, 100 yr, kCOV=1.5, MaxPtSrcM=6, Scale 1.29, Spontaneous, Hist Catalog Results

Start 1919, 100 yr, kCOV=1.5, MaxPtSrcM=6, Scale 1.29, Spontaneous, Hist Catalog
Num Simulations1000
Start Time1919/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds-1609459200000
Duration100 Years
Includes Spontaneous?true
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Trigger Ruptures165 Trigger Ruptures
First: M7.3 at 1852/01/05 04:40:39 UTC
Last: M6.5 at 1918/07/15 00:24:39 UTC
Largest: M7.9 at 1857/01/09 16:25:39 UTC
Config Generated Withu3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 1919 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 100 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --scale-factor 1.29 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec --etas-k-cov 1.5 --max-point-src-mag 6 --ascii-output

Table Of Contents

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous

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Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution100 yr Probability100 yr Prob 95% Conf100 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥2.52688.8762169.9403772.7702583.5402936.5601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥2.62135.7921723.8502994.7402052.8001947.1701.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥2.71696.5401368.8902379.2001630.0701638.4101.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥2.81347.5631086.6001885.2301294.5801249.3701.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥2.91070.371862.7901497.0601028.800966.2501.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3850.168685.4401188.140816.360801.0401.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3.1675.327544.110941.950648.370629.9201.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3.2536.364431.850747.410514.700488.7001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3.3426.014342.780593.760408.780364.7801.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3.4338.370272.690472.080324.970318.2701.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3.5268.788216.650377.070258.070244.2001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3.6213.443172.120299.810204.790203.7901.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3.7169.509136.740238.200162.740169.0201.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3.8134.619108.550188.880129.280125.5101.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥3.9106.91086.050150.300102.94098.2701.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥484.91368.380118.92081.75082.8501.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4.167.41554.33094.71064.75060.2101.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4.253.51143.02075.22051.39051.0201.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4.342.48634.06059.60040.75040.6901.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4.433.73527.04047.48032.39030.3701.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4.526.77021.29037.70025.77025.3701.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4.621.23816.89029.82020.49017.9601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4.716.85013.33023.79016.24017.1801.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4.813.35310.53018.84012.88011.4201.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥4.910.5778.29014.96010.2109.6301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥58.3776.60011.7608.1208.8108.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.16.6285.1809.3906.4106.4006.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.25.2444.0707.3105.0904.9205.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.34.1403.1405.7804.0304.0304.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.43.2582.4704.5903.1603.3003.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.52.5571.9003.6402.4802.4202.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.62.0061.4902.8201.9501.7802.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.71.5701.1502.2301.5301.6001.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.81.2200.8801.7101.1901.1701.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.90.9310.6601.3100.9100.9101.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥60.7370.5101.0300.7200.6700.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.10.5660.3900.8000.5600.5000.6601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.20.4420.2900.6200.4300.4200.5291.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.30.3460.2200.5000.3400.3600.4201.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.40.2650.1500.3900.2600.2600.3321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.50.2030.1100.3200.2000.1900.2601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.60.1560.0800.2500.1500.1500.2051.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.70.1150.0500.1900.1100.1100.1601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.80.0880.0400.1600.0900.0900.1271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.90.0670.0200.1200.0600.0600.1000.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]0.996 (99.60%)
M≥70.0490.0100.1000.0500.0500.0780.993 (99.30%)[98.50% 99.69%]0.988 (98.80%)
M≥7.10.0360.0000.0800.0300.0300.0600.965 (96.50%)[95.11% 97.51%]0.956 (95.60%)
M≥7.20.0250.0000.0600.0200.0200.0450.908 (90.80%)[88.79% 92.48%]0.894 (89.40%)
M≥7.30.0180.0000.0500.0200.0100.0350.849 (84.90%)[82.49% 87.03%]0.838 (83.80%)
M≥7.40.0120.0000.0400.0100.0100.0270.706 (70.60%)[67.65% 73.39%]0.696 (69.60%)
M≥7.57.38E-30.0000.0300.0100.0000.0190.523 (52.30%)[49.15% 55.43%]0.516 (51.60%)
M≥7.64.69E-30.0000.0200.0000.0000.0140.371 (37.10%)[34.11% 40.19%]0.369 (36.90%)
M≥7.72.44E-30.0000.0100.0000.0009.58E-30.223 (22.30%)[19.78% 25.04%]0.222 (22.20%)
M≥7.81.08E-30.0000.0100.0000.0006.19E-30.104 (10.40%)[8.61% 12.50%]0.104 (10.40%)
M≥7.95.20E-40.0000.0100.0000.0003.51E-30.051 (5.10%)[3.86% 6.70%]0.051 (5.10%)
M≥82.40E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.03E-30.024 (2.40%)[1.58% 3.61%]0.024 (2.40%)
M≥8.16.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-36.00E-3 (0.60%)[0.24% 1.37%]6.00E-3 (0.60%)
M≥8.21.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.48E-41.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.01% 0.65%]1.00E-3 (0.10%)
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-40.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)

Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

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Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution100 yr Probability100 yr Prob 95% Conf100 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5123.14351.900355.260100.20074.8601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)47.026
M≥2.697.80041.450281.06079.78054.6501.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)37.343
M≥2.777.69832.730224.11063.49054.2101.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)29.673
M≥2.861.72626.010178.41050.36044.5801.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)23.575
M≥2.949.02820.680141.54039.90030.6501.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)18.726
M≥338.93616.430112.11031.71027.1701.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)14.873
M≥3.130.91913.02089.11025.16020.9201.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)11.806
M≥3.224.55310.28070.69020.04016.9001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)9.379
M≥3.319.5138.19055.67016.01014.0401.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)7.455
M≥3.415.4926.47044.39012.70010.7501.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)5.918
M≥3.512.3075.18035.50010.08011.6001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)4.700
M≥3.69.7804.11028.1407.9904.8601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)3.739
M≥3.77.7793.25022.3006.4004.8401.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)2.976
M≥3.86.1732.56017.6905.0803.4001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)2.360
M≥3.94.9002.02013.9504.0002.6501.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)1.872
M≥43.8931.60011.0303.1602.7501.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)1.489
M≥4.13.0851.2408.7602.5302.2001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)1.180
M≥4.22.4510.9706.9102.0001.7001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)0.938
M≥4.31.9440.7605.3901.5901.2101.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)0.743
M≥4.41.5410.5904.3001.2601.0901.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)0.589
M≥4.51.2230.4503.5101.0000.7801.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)0.468
M≥4.60.9720.3502.7500.8000.6001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)0.371
M≥4.70.7700.2802.2000.6400.4601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)0.295
M≥4.80.6110.2101.7000.5000.5101.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)0.234
M≥4.90.4850.1601.3700.4000.2901.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)0.186
M≥50.3840.1201.0900.3200.2408.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)0.147
M≥5.10.3050.0800.8600.2500.1806.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)0.118
M≥5.20.2420.0600.7000.2000.1705.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)0.094
M≥5.30.1920.0500.5600.1500.1304.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)0.075
M≥5.40.1510.0300.4600.1200.1103.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.776 (77.60%)0.059
M≥5.50.1190.0200.3600.1000.0702.6960.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]0.776 (77.60%)0.048
M≥5.60.0930.0100.2800.0800.0702.1330.992 (99.20%)[98.36% 99.63%]0.776 (77.60%)0.038
M≥5.70.0730.0100.2200.0600.0401.6860.984 (98.40%)[97.36% 99.05%]0.776 (77.60%)0.030
M≥5.80.0570.0000.1800.0500.0401.3310.967 (96.70%)[95.34% 97.68%]0.776 (77.60%)0.024
M≥5.90.0430.0000.1400.0300.0201.0360.935 (93.50%)[91.74% 94.91%]0.766 (76.60%)0.018
M≥60.0330.0000.1100.0300.0100.8360.899 (89.90%)[87.82% 91.66%]0.756 (75.60%)0.015
M≥6.10.0250.0000.0900.0200.0100.6600.835 (83.50%)[81.02% 85.72%]0.713 (71.30%)0.011
M≥6.20.0200.0000.0700.0100.0100.5290.782 (78.20%)[75.48% 80.70%]0.685 (68.50%)9.01E-3
M≥6.30.0160.0000.0600.0100.0100.4200.721 (72.10%)[69.19% 74.84%]0.645 (64.50%)7.55E-3
M≥6.40.0120.0000.0500.0100.0000.3320.610 (61.00%)[57.89% 64.02%]0.542 (54.20%)5.35E-3
M≥6.58.32E-30.0000.0400.0100.0000.2600.501 (50.10%)[46.96% 53.24%]0.439 (43.90%)3.78E-3
M≥6.66.30E-30.0000.0300.0000.0000.2050.414 (41.40%)[38.34% 44.53%]0.362 (36.20%)2.70E-3
M≥6.74.57E-30.0000.0300.0000.0000.1600.333 (33.30%)[30.40% 36.33%]0.298 (29.80%)1.92E-3
M≥6.83.21E-30.0000.0200.0000.0000.1270.253 (25.30%)[22.66% 28.14%]0.227 (22.70%)1.46E-3
M≥6.92.48E-30.0000.0200.0000.0000.1000.207 (20.70%)[18.26% 23.37%]0.187 (18.70%)1.12E-3
M≥71.85E-30.0000.0100.0000.0000.0780.162 (16.20%)[14.00% 18.66%]0.150 (15.00%)8.10E-4
M≥7.11.19E-30.0000.0100.0000.0000.0600.108 (10.80%)[8.98% 12.93%]0.099 (9.90%)4.90E-4
M≥7.28.60E-40.0000.0100.0000.0000.0450.082 (8.20%)[6.61% 10.12%]0.076 (7.60%)3.30E-4
M≥7.36.60E-40.0000.0100.0000.0000.0350.065 (6.50%)[5.09% 8.26%]0.062 (6.20%)2.60E-4
M≥7.45.00E-40.0000.0100.0000.0000.0270.050 (5.00%)[3.77% 6.59%]0.049 (4.90%)2.00E-4
M≥7.52.60E-40.0000.0100.0000.0000.0190.026 (2.60%)[1.74% 3.84%]0.026 (2.60%)9.00E-5
M≥7.62.10E-40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0140.021 (2.10%)[1.34% 3.25%]0.021 (2.10%)7.00E-5
M≥7.79.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0009.58E-39.00E-3 (0.90%)[0.44% 1.77%]9.00E-3 (0.90%)2.00E-5
M≥7.86.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0006.19E-36.00E-3 (0.60%)[0.24% 1.37%]6.00E-3 (0.60%)2.00E-5
M≥7.94.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0003.51E-34.00E-3 (0.40%)[0.13% 1.10%]4.00E-3 (0.40%)2.00E-5
M≥83.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0002.03E-33.00E-3 (0.30%)[0.08% 0.95%]3.00E-3 (0.30%)1.00E-5
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-30.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0004.48E-40.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-40.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Long Term Rate Variability

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80 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
2.52698.6122585.86252540.9875477.757662147.13752320.23055.23753891.1375
2.62143.5672053.252091.4126379.473241705.88751842.81252426.653090.2
2.71702.71681633.1251555.775301.532531354.2251463.11251929.21252455.25
2.81352.51271294.28751261.4239.540861075.11161.68751531.03751950.5125
2.91074.33521028.4125996.1875190.21246854.575922.2751215.9751554.575
3.0853.3166816.375772.375151.11821678.8732.65966.1251233.1
3.1677.8148649.3627.375120.06981538.6582.35767.0875980.3
3.2538.31915515.325499.512595.3494427.675462.6375609.3875778.3125
3.3427.59384409.1375403.32575.79535339.4625367.425483.9125619.05
3.4339.61685325.075307.562560.213814269.45291.175383.825491.1125
3.5269.78906258.6375227.612547.825176214.2231.5375304.925390.625
3.6214.23743205.1203.912537.97223170.075183.975242.3625310.0
3.7170.13588162.825171.77530.181202135.275146.1192.4375246.6875
3.8135.10112129.325123.97523.979725107.2625116.0875153.0196.425
3.9107.28957102.52597.92519.05297385.32592.0875121.225155.6
4.085.2327181.612576.412515.13327667.937573.062596.525123.45
4.167.6654564.7569.387512.044250553.712557.92576.687597.7125
4.253.71237651.42549.33759.57504942.587546.12560.862577.2
4.342.65081440.812537.78757.61456333.736.5548.461.0125
4.433.8680632.4531.056.04629926.837529.037538.462548.5875
4.526.86841225.787524.2754.791595521.1523.0530.62538.3625
4.621.3165520.519.83753.815006516.712518.27524.137530.825
4.716.9093516.22516.98753.031204713.22514.437519.187524.225
4.813.403912.887512.252.410402510.462511.4515.112519.275
4.910.6223510.23759.151.91282838.2759.087511.97515.1875
5.08.41048.1257.88751.52158166.457.159.512511.9875
5.16.6565256.46.31251.2173955.11255.6257.5759.5375
5.25.2686755.08755.13750.96983074.0254.43756.0257.675
5.34.1603254.0254.13750.77543113.1253.54.7756.0875
5.43.2755753.16252.81250.614255132.4252.753.76254.775
5.52.56898762.48752.2750.491440741.92.13752.96253.775
5.62.016251.96251.86250.388917981.451.6752.3252.9625
5.71.57838751.551.6250.309356061.1251.31.8252.3375
5.81.22551251.21.050.243185030.83751.01.4251.775
5.90.9351250.91250.80.190009830.63750.76251.08751.375
6.00.73946250.7250.68750.15203430.50.60.8751.0875
6.10.56768750.550.50.123122640.3750.450.68750.85
6.20.44273750.4250.40.101496180.2750.33750.53750.6625
6.30.34713750.33750.28750.0842490350.21250.26250.4250.5375
6.40.2660.26250.250.068644920.150.20.33750.4125
6.50.20331250.20.20.0580823420.10.150.26250.325
6.60.15608750.150.13750.0498275650.0750.11250.20.2625
6.70.11513750.11250.10.0407286730.050.0750.150.2
6.80.08771250.08750.06250.035343650.0250.050.1250.1625
6.90.06620.06250.06250.0302602870.01250.03750.10.1375
7.00.0486750.050.03750.0249898860.01250.0250.0750.1
7.10.03531250.03750.0250.021543470.00.01250.06250.075
7.20.02463750.0250.01250.0175897650.00.01250.03750.0625
7.30.0179750.01250.01250.0146743610.00.00.03750.05
7.40.011650.01250.00.0119855120.00.00.0250.0375
7.50.00708750.00.00.0094166660.00.00.01250.025
7.60.0043250.00.00.0073769490.00.00.01250.025
7.70.00223750.00.00.00528794340.00.00.01250.0125
7.89.125E-40.00.00.00339280020.00.00.00.0125
7.94.125E-40.00.00.00230186740.00.00.00.0125
8.02.0E-40.00.00.00156843870.00.00.00.0
8.13.75E-50.00.06.8362546E-40.00.00.00.0
8.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.30.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

28 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
2.52694.9272514.42852557.5748.627561973.07142185.71443128.71444368.0
2.62140.62331996.751871.4286594.661741569.35721736.03582485.42853470.8928
2.71700.40971587.251422.4286472.526061245.17861379.251973.57142759.0
2.81350.65551260.46421117.2858375.34137992.28571095.32141568.85722189.6072
2.91072.84961000.5714887.1786298.16565786.1429870.60711248.251736.7142
3.0852.1353794.8929773.1786236.95268625.25691.5714991.57141379.9286
3.1676.8695631.9286562.3929188.20459496.7857549.4286789.14291093.75
3.2537.56647501.75488.7143149.41792394.60715436.14285625.9286870.5
3.3426.98776398.42856418.32144118.69549313.10715346.0497.2143691.9643
3.4339.12836316.5275.4285694.289604248.28572274.9643394.4643549.5357
3.5269.4043251.71428233.7857274.892975197.32143218.21428313.64285436.89285
3.6213.93425199.89285223.6428559.489723156.92857173.25249.17857346.07144
3.7169.89726158.75161.6428547.276524124.42857137.39285197.71428276.10715
3.8134.91327126.07143111.1428637.56324898.64286109.17857157.07143218.75
3.9107.139015100.098.3571429.82664378.2586.67857124.64286174.32143
4.085.10367679.5714370.6071423.71782561.96428768.7857198.92857137.96428
4.167.55752663.0714358.018.84758649.14285754.578.64286110.17857
4.253.6239550.1785743.85714314.99079438.89285743.2562.4285787.10714
4.342.5792439.85714340.14285711.90912930.71428534.2549.60714369.60714
4.433.80840331.60714333.2857139.47169324.35714327.14285739.39285754.82143
4.526.82219125.07142824.1428577.527266519.2521.57142831.46428543.57143
4.621.2824419.92857218.05.994663715.07142817.07142825.03571535.142857
4.716.88416715.82142814.3214284.75482311.89285813.53571419.85714327.464285
4.813.38395212.57142813.6785723.7800029.32142810.71428615.82142821.75
4.910.6054889.9642869.8928583.0027637.3214298.46428612.53571417.107143
5.08.3960837.8928576.9642862.38979485.7142866.6428579.92857213.5
5.16.6440246.2857145.6785711.90474154.4285715.257.85714310.75
5.25.25829744.9642864.4285711.52026133.46428564.1428576.2857148.428572
5.34.1529523.92857153.92857151.21385742.67857153.21428564.9642866.821429
5.43.27007153.1071432.6428570.968156342.07142852.53571443.96428565.357143
5.52.56580952.42857152.21428560.77154421.57142851.96428573.1428574.25
5.62.01401191.92857151.82142850.612222851.17857151.52.53.357143
5.71.57698811.51.32142850.48878420.92857141.14285721.96428572.642857
5.81.22434521.17857151.03571430.384589970.67857140.892857131.53571432.0357144
5.90.934095260.892857130.785714270.30111630.50.67857141.17857151.5714285
6.00.738821450.714285730.642857130.24167350.357142870.50.964285731.2857143
6.10.567107140.535714270.535714270.199543570.250.392857130.751.0
6.20.441726180.428571430.392857130.165520710.178571430.28571430.607142870.78571427
6.30.346095230.321428570.321428570.139406140.107142860.214285720.46428570.64285713
6.40.265333320.250.214285720.115633820.0714285750.142857150.392857130.53571427
6.50.202964290.178571430.178571430.098387370.0357142870.107142860.28571430.42857143
6.60.155833330.142857150.142857150.084202860.0357142870.0714285750.250.32142857
6.70.114797620.107142860.107142860.0701043460.00.0357142870.178571430.2857143
6.80.0877142850.0714285750.0714285750.060700950.00.0357142870.142857150.21428572
6.90.0661904740.0714285750.0357142870.052413950.00.00.107142860.17857143
7.00.048750.0357142870.0357142870.0438250080.00.00.107142860.14285715
7.10.035273810.0357142870.00.0372785030.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.20.0245952380.00.00.0305784270.00.00.0357142870.10714286
7.30.0179404770.00.00.0258362160.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.40.0116547620.00.00.021043360.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.50.0071547620.00.00.016243780.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.60.00442857160.00.00.0128748560.00.00.00.035714287
7.70.00229761910.00.00.0091886790.00.00.00.035714287
7.89.2857145E-40.00.00.00583109770.00.00.00.035714287
7.94.404762E-40.00.00.00404816170.00.00.00.0
8.02.0238095E-40.00.00.00268084560.00.00.00.0
8.14.7619047E-50.00.00.00130323170.00.00.00.0
8.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.30.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

M2.5 Variability Duration Dependence

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Duration Dependence Plot

Download CSV Here

Duration (years)MeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
1.02688.87572139.01908.02810.76681600.01790.03082.07113.0
2.02688.87572212.01869.02121.6381662.51857.53142.56630.0
4.02688.87572296.252035.251615.84831734.751926.53179.56101.5
6.02688.97312348.66672137.33331394.17681777.83341978.66663184.33335720.0
8.02688.97312380.02246.51225.8551813.52014.03189.3755465.25
10.02688.87572399.72334.41122.72391836.82040.53176.45306.6
12.02688.97312423.16672448.91671054.81261857.16662063.753163.66675071.4165
14.02688.50372442.21442206.9285984.51921879.21422081.85723157.57154983.2856
16.02688.97312456.8752453.9375927.851141891.18752102.68753162.68754801.625
18.02689.1412466.66672620.5889.21861926.44452120.05573138.1114745.5557
20.02688.87572480.02374.5856.97511915.02129.83141.74714.0
22.02689.6742484.45462493.5454822.13651940.86362148.77273136.04544602.636
24.02688.97312492.29172412.9583787.391955.3752155.753133.04174571.4585
26.02697.39922512.73072728.0386760.44811978.03852179.15383138.53864480.6924
28.02694.9272514.42852557.5748.627561973.07142185.71443128.71444368.0
30.02689.1412506.72501.9666729.616461974.96672187.73121.53344406.033
32.02688.97312521.93752588.0703.17571980.18752200.46883108.04395.2812
34.02705.0392551.11772333.5588686.90752024.05882223.73543113.05884415.0
36.02700.74242545.52573.4167669.41022028.58342229.03117.8614338.8887
38.02695.6562543.3422321.1052643.825442029.97362226.73683109.36844250.8945
40.02698.6122543.8252452.825638.264342042.6252236.8753115.854250.95
42.02694.9272543.85722438.8333624.67262043.1192239.90483103.04166.3096
44.02689.6742540.02464.182607.07252040.95462245.13653088.54544145.2954
46.02687.78322546.4132555.1304594.56192046.56522247.5873089.82624153.5654
48.02688.97312553.3752552.5582.9572035.06252255.29173088.47924106.729
50.02688.87572551.722452.36571.144842040.062260.363069.384099.04
52.02718.9872577.9232491.1538549.07692116.252294.59623081.0774043.5386
54.02715.58762574.83332370.1482547.23182120.94432298.51863068.4634020.5186
56.02713.06742578.02584.3035541.60662128.30352300.14283074.83944067.9822
58.02712.86942578.96562590.3447534.577642131.74152304.41383065.32764009.3447
60.02709.9982580.72588.1528.872562133.53342300.46663057.91673952.55
62.02707.05542579.37082416.4194521.536252131.19362298.85473059.41943923.016
64.02708.96852585.1252565.375520.68732132.1252299.40623069.26563997.6875
66.02706.7712584.66672442.1667517.307072125.98492296.51513067.8944014.303
68.02705.0392580.02535.147509.674042133.77932308.32353053.51463980.7058
70.02702.58032577.4572426.8857504.03512132.55712302.0433058.11433981.5571
72.02700.74242580.1112419.1667496.533842132.3612308.3753061.59723963.7778
74.02697.70782579.71632844.4595490.981932133.20262305.6623055.71633943.7432
76.02695.6562586.0922835.3027483.304962150.86842309.88163040.69733911.25
78.02697.39922582.12822878.7563478.890532147.7052316.38453055.6413895.3206
80.02698.6122585.86252540.9875477.757662147.13752320.23055.23753891.1375
82.02697.5412583.6222484.9268472.59512148.8662323.8053038.82933855.5122
84.02694.9272578.55962404.6428467.463682155.17852318.2743024.11913838.7976
86.02691.02862574.88382462.5466461.898252152.75592320.66283017.11623813.6396
88.02689.6742578.63652435.3977456.080442162.52331.22733009.70463803.0
90.02689.1412578.87772353.2556452.084932158.62328.78883005.63775.9443
92.02687.78322586.6522622.8586446.564452156.9132325.46733003.95653752.5652
94.02687.782584.6812446.8936443.490172171.4682329.10643003.29793759.8723
96.02688.97312584.52082521.9895438.79262168.79172330.31253020.34383726.323
98.02688.50372583.24492368.0103435.49632168.33672331.01033022.74493725.4897
100.02688.87572583.542936.56431.640562169.942333.073022.013772.77

M5 Variability Duration Dependence

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Duration Dependence Plot

Download CSV Here

Duration (years)MeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
1.08.376747.05.09.309042.04.012.025.0
2.08.376747.06.06.98224162.54.511.022.0
4.08.376747.256.55.2734163.755.2510.7519.75
6.08.3762617.56.54.52368744.16666655.666666510.518.166666
8.08.3762617.56.8753.96913554.55.87510.37517.25
10.08.376747.67.33.62502844.86.010.316.7
12.08.3762617.66666657.16666653.40098055.06.083333510.2516.0
14.08.3747767.7142867.0714293.16905245.1428576.21428610.21428615.571428
16.08.3762617.757.252.99227865.18756.312510.062515.0
18.08.37957.77777777.22222232.8472465.33333356.38888910.014.833333
20.08.376747.87.752.75224885.46.4510.014.55
22.08.3812627.8181827.5909092.63532075.56.59.90909114.272727
24.08.3762617.83333357.3752.52204825.6256.54166659.95833314.25
26.08.4068847.9230777.69230752.44007735.69230756.61538469.88461514.0
28.08.3960837.8928576.9642862.38979485.7142866.6428579.92857213.5
30.08.37957.97.46666672.33117965.7333336.79.83333313.733334
32.08.3762617.93757.52.25115755.756.68759.8437513.65625
34.08.4332358.07.05882362.19654855.91176466.76470579.852941513.6470585
36.08.4175838.0277788.1111112.13495235.91666656.77777779.80555513.361111
38.08.4029477.97368437.94736862.0512166.06.81578979.84210513.105263
40.08.41047.9757.22.03550246.1256.859.87513.2
42.08.3960837.97619068.0238091.99142366.0476196.8571439.80952413.0
44.08.3812627.97727257.751.93851036.11363656.86363659.77272712.840909
46.08.3744027.95652157.3695651.89962576.10869556.8695659.71739112.891304
48.08.3762617.95833357.35416651.86109656.08333356.89583359.7512.75
50.08.376747.987.741.82845956.16.929.712.58
52.08.4810198.1346157.7307691.77130326.2307697.05769259.76923112.480769
54.08.4692228.129637.92592571.75881596.2407417.05555539.70370412.351851
56.08.4619828.1071427.9464291.73339626.3214297.0535719.7512.285714
58.08.4593458.1206897.81034471.707456.3275867.0862079.68965512.120689
60.08.4489838.1333337.58333351.68629096.33333357.19.63333312.083333
62.08.4427588.0967747.6935481.66395266.338717.1129039.6612912.17742
64.08.4490478.1093757.3593751.66334336.3281257.1093759.62512.28125
66.08.4387738.1060617.42424251.65460166.3181827.1212129.59090912.348485
68.08.4332358.0882357.58823541.63051196.3529417.1323539.61764712.205882
70.08.4243438.0857147.8571431.61136226.31428587.1428579.612.1285715
72.08.4175838.1258.9583331.58276926.34722237.15277779.58333312.152778
74.08.4069058.0945957.6891891.56344936.37837847.14864879.56756812.027027
76.08.4029478.0789477.251.5385586.40789467.15789469.55263111.894737
78.08.4068848.1153857.62820531.52641066.43589747.14102559.5128212.038462
80.08.41048.1257.88751.52158166.457.159.512511.9875
82.08.4026588.0731717.51.50434736.46341477.14634139.51219611.95122
84.08.3960838.0952387.51190471.48929156.5357147.1547629.51190511.833333
86.08.382938.0813957.79069761.47278426.4767447.1627919.47674511.755814
88.08.3812628.0795458.0568181.45597586.5568187.1818189.44318211.886364
90.08.37958.0777787.46666671.44264886.56666667.1777789.43333311.811111
92.08.3744028.0760878.0760871.42442086.56521757.1739139.40217411.913043
94.08.372998.0957457.5744681.41265266.6063837.15957459.40425511.946809
96.08.3762618.1041677.85416651.39805516.593757.19791659.4062511.885417
98.08.3747768.1122458.8163261.39054266.5714297.18367349.44897911.877551
100.08.376748.128.811.37889126.67.219.4311.76

Simulation Stationarity

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Stationarity Plot

Moment Rate Plot

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 10 of 313 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 100 Year ProbTotal 100 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 100 Year ProbTriggered 100 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.043660.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]0.004820.284 (28.40%)[25.64% 31.32%]0.002630.047238618
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.026360.970 (97.00%)[95.69% 97.93%]8.0E-40.073 (7.30%)[5.80% 9.14%]3.5E-40.03419009
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.017060.840 (84.00%)[81.55% 86.19%]0.003520.247 (24.70%)[22.08% 27.52%]0.001980.016211301
Mendocino0.015510.832 (83.20%)[80.70% 85.44%]1.0E-40.010 (1.00%)[0.51% 1.90%]8.0E-50.028919645
Imperial0.01210.820 (82.00%)[79.45% 84.30%]5.5E-40.053 (5.30%)[4.03% 6.92%]2.8E-40.014349225
Cerro Prieto0.011720.792 (79.20%)[76.52% 81.65%]5.0E-55.00E-3 (0.50%)[0.18% 1.23%]2.0E-50.015186971
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.01130.802 (80.20%)[77.56% 82.60%]2.9E-40.028 (2.80%)[1.90% 4.08%]1.4E-40.013392845
Hunting Creek - Berryessa 2011 CFM0.006730.528 (52.80%)[49.65% 55.93%]2.6E-40.024 (2.40%)[1.58% 3.61%]3.0E-50.0072375466
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.006710.555 (55.50%)[52.35% 58.60%]9.9E-40.092 (9.20%)[7.52% 11.21%]5.3E-40.009440966
San Andreas (Coachella) rev0.006490.580 (58.00%)[54.87% 61.07%]1.2E-40.012 (1.20%)[0.65% 2.15%]4.0E-50.006223159

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 305 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 100 Year ProbTotal 100 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 100 Year ProbTriggered 100 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
Cerro Prieto0.009970.733 (73.30%)[70.42% 76.00%]4.0E-54.00E-3 (0.40%)[0.13% 1.10%]2.0E-50.013091409
Imperial0.008320.671 (67.10%)[64.08% 69.99%]3.3E-40.032 (3.20%)[2.23% 4.54%]1.9E-40.0096799815
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.007940.655 (65.50%)[62.45% 68.43%]2.3E-40.022 (2.20%)[1.42% 3.37%]1.2E-40.009075132
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.006960.521 (52.10%)[48.95% 55.23%]3.1E-40.028 (2.80%)[1.90% 4.08%]1.3E-40.012216282
Mendocino0.006310.503 (50.30%)[47.16% 53.44%]4.0E-54.00E-3 (0.40%)[0.13% 1.10%]2.0E-50.012516479
San Andreas (Coachella) rev0.005590.525 (52.50%)[49.35% 55.63%]1.2E-40.012 (1.20%)[0.65% 2.15%]4.0E-50.005337052
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.005480.479 (47.90%)[44.77% 51.05%]7.4E-40.069 (6.90%)[5.44% 8.70%]3.9E-40.008140643
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.003990.363 (36.30%)[33.33% 39.38%]3.1E-40.029 (2.90%)[1.99% 4.19%]1.7E-40.0067538084
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)0.003990.359 (35.90%)[32.94% 38.97%]1.2E-40.012 (1.20%)[0.65% 2.15%]4.0E-50.005577705
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)0.003670.351 (35.10%)[32.16% 38.16%]8.0E-58.00E-3 (0.80%)[0.37% 1.64%]3.0E-50.0042052693

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 267 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 100 Year ProbTotal 100 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 100 Year ProbTriggered 100 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Coachella) rev0.004380.427 (42.70%)[39.62% 45.84%]9.0E-59.00E-3 (0.90%)[0.44% 1.77%]3.0E-50.004435764
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.004080.398 (39.80%)[36.76% 42.92%]8.0E-58.00E-3 (0.80%)[0.37% 1.64%]3.0E-50.003998075
Imperial0.003980.388 (38.80%)[35.78% 41.91%]8.0E-58.00E-3 (0.80%)[0.37% 1.64%]3.0E-50.0038191879
Cerro Prieto0.003350.320 (32.00%)[29.13% 35.01%]2.0E-52.00E-3 (0.20%)[0.03% 0.80%]1.0E-50.0048668785
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)0.003220.312 (31.20%)[28.36% 34.19%]8.0E-58.00E-3 (0.80%)[0.37% 1.64%]3.0E-50.0037061623
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.002620.246 (24.60%)[21.98% 27.41%]2.3E-40.023 (2.30%)[1.50% 3.49%]1.1E-40.007612852
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.002360.232 (23.20%)[20.64% 25.97%]3.8E-40.038 (3.80%)[2.74% 5.23%]2.3E-40.005722108
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.002120.210 (21.00%)[18.54% 23.69%]3.5E-40.035 (3.50%)[2.49% 4.89%]2.1E-40.0057427646
Maacama 2011 CFM0.001990.198 (19.80%)[17.40% 22.44%]2.0E-52.00E-3 (0.20%)[0.03% 0.80%]0.00.0036327762
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)0.001940.187 (18.70%)[16.36% 21.29%]1.0E-40.010 (1.00%)[0.51% 1.90%]2.0E-50.0030576885

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 186 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 100 Year ProbTotal 100 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 100 Year ProbTriggered 100 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Coachella) rev0.001280.127 (12.70%)[10.73% 14.96%]3.0E-53.00E-3 (0.30%)[0.08% 0.95%]0.00.0021020647
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)0.001170.115 (11.50%)[9.62% 13.68%]2.0E-52.00E-3 (0.20%)[0.03% 0.80%]0.00.0020508107
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.001160.115 (11.50%)[9.62% 13.68%]2.0E-52.00E-3 (0.20%)[0.03% 0.80%]0.00.0017912637
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)0.001120.110 (11.00%)[9.16% 13.14%]5.0E-55.00E-3 (0.50%)[0.18% 1.23%]1.0E-50.0022481368
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.001110.110 (11.00%)[9.16% 13.14%]1.2E-40.012 (1.20%)[0.65% 2.15%]6.0E-50.0049894005
Imperial0.001080.107 (10.70%)[8.89% 12.82%]2.0E-52.00E-3 (0.20%)[0.03% 0.80%]0.00.0016334486
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)9.9E-40.097 (9.70%)[7.97% 11.75%]9.0E-59.00E-3 (0.90%)[0.44% 1.77%]4.0E-50.0037959707
San Andreas (Mojave S)9.7E-40.097 (9.70%)[7.97% 11.75%]8.0E-58.00E-3 (0.80%)[0.37% 1.64%]4.0E-50.0045267143
San Andreas (Big Bend)9.6E-40.095 (9.50%)[7.79% 11.53%]1.4E-40.014 (1.40%)[0.80% 2.40%]8.0E-50.0044245115
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev9.3E-40.092 (9.20%)[7.52% 11.21%]1.2E-40.012 (1.20%)[0.65% 2.15%]6.0E-50.004201805

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 35 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 100 Year ProbTotal 100 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 100 Year ProbTriggered 100 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)2.4E-40.024 (2.40%)[1.58% 3.61%]3.0E-53.00E-3 (0.30%)[0.08% 0.95%]1.0E-50.0018098651
San Andreas (Mojave S)2.4E-40.024 (2.40%)[1.58% 3.61%]3.0E-53.00E-3 (0.30%)[0.08% 0.95%]1.0E-50.0017636013
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)2.4E-40.024 (2.40%)[1.58% 3.61%]3.0E-53.00E-3 (0.30%)[0.08% 0.95%]1.0E-50.0016807786
San Andreas (Big Bend)2.2E-40.022 (2.20%)[1.42% 3.37%]3.0E-53.00E-3 (0.30%)[0.08% 0.95%]1.0E-50.0017453934
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev2.2E-40.022 (2.20%)[1.42% 3.37%]3.0E-53.00E-3 (0.30%)[0.08% 0.95%]1.0E-50.0017508415
San Andreas (Cholame) rev2.2E-40.022 (2.20%)[1.42% 3.37%]3.0E-53.00E-3 (0.30%)[0.08% 0.95%]1.0E-50.0017193216
San Andreas (Parkfield)1.7E-40.017 (1.70%)[1.03% 2.77%]2.0E-52.00E-3 (0.20%)[0.03% 0.80%]0.00.0015122787
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM1.4E-40.014 (1.40%)[0.80% 2.40%]2.0E-52.00E-3 (0.20%)[0.03% 0.80%]0.00.0014250289
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)1.3E-40.013 (1.30%)[0.72% 2.27%]1.0E-51.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.01% 0.65%]0.06.4807484E-4
San Andreas (Coachella) rev1.1E-40.011 (1.10%)[0.58% 2.02%]0.00.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.06.20271E-4

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥2.5Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 1000,
  "duration": 100.0,
  "startYear": 1919,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 1621269538442,
  "binaryOutput": false,
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Start 1919, 100 yr, kCOV\u003d1.5, MaxPtSrcM\u003d6, Scale 1.29, Spontaneous, Hist Catalog",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2021_05_17-Start1919_100yr_kCOV1p5_MaxPtSrcM6_Scale1p29_Spontaneous_HistCatalog",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.29,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "etas_k_cov": 1.5,
  "maxPointSourceMag": 6.0,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 1919 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 100 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --scale-factor 1.29 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec --etas-k-cov 1.5 --max-point-src-mag 6 --ascii-output",
  "configTime": 1621269538442
}