Parent Section Magnitude-Probability Distributions
Only fault sections with at least one triggered aftershock are plotted. Sections are sorted by total supraseismogenic trigger rate (decreasing)
Table Of Contents
Polaris 2011 CFM
(top)
| 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Year | 10 Year |
|---|
 |  |  |  |
| Magnitude | 1 wk TI Prob | 1 wk TD Prob | 1 wk ETAS Prob | 1 wk ETAS/TD Gain | 1 wk ETAS Triggered Only | 1 mo TI Prob | 1 mo TD Prob | 1 mo ETAS Prob | 1 mo ETAS/TD Gain | 1 mo ETAS Triggered Only | 1 yr TI Prob | 1 yr TD Prob | 1 yr ETAS Prob | 1 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 1 yr ETAS Triggered Only | 10 yr TI Prob | 10 yr TD Prob | 10 yr ETAS Prob | 10 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 10 yr ETAS Triggered Only |
|---|
| 6.0 | 1.2630823E-5 | 1.3595956E-5 | 6.8358687E-4 | 50.27869 | 6.7E-4 | 5.413098E-5 | 5.8267375E-5 | 7.9822424E-4 | 13.699335 | 7.4E-4 | 6.5884535E-4 | 7.0922635E-4 | 0.0017085172 | 2.408987 | 0.001 | 0.0065689543 | 0.007074749 | 0.008335764 | 1.1782417 | 0.00127 |
| 6.1 | 1.2630823E-5 | 1.3595956E-5 | 6.8358687E-4 | 50.27869 | 6.7E-4 | 5.413098E-5 | 5.8267375E-5 | 7.9822424E-4 | 13.699335 | 7.4E-4 | 6.5884535E-4 | 7.0922635E-4 | 0.0017085172 | 2.408987 | 0.001 | 0.0065689543 | 0.007074749 | 0.008335764 | 1.1782417 | 0.00127 |
| 6.2 | 1.2630823E-5 | 1.3595956E-5 | 6.8358687E-4 | 50.27869 | 6.7E-4 | 5.413098E-5 | 5.8267375E-5 | 7.9822424E-4 | 13.699335 | 7.4E-4 | 6.5884535E-4 | 7.0922635E-4 | 0.0017085172 | 2.408987 | 0.001 | 0.0065689543 | 0.007074749 | 0.008335764 | 1.1782417 | 0.00127 |
| 6.3 | 1.2630823E-5 | 1.3595956E-5 | 6.8358687E-4 | 50.27869 | 6.7E-4 | 5.413098E-5 | 5.8267375E-5 | 7.9822424E-4 | 13.699335 | 7.4E-4 | 6.5884535E-4 | 7.0922635E-4 | 0.0017085172 | 2.408987 | 0.001 | 0.0065689543 | 0.007074749 | 0.008335764 | 1.1782417 | 0.00127 |
| 6.4 | 6.642994E-6 | 7.113379E-6 | 1.4711238E-4 | 20.681084 | 1.4E-4 | 2.8469662E-5 | 3.0485584E-5 | 1.8048102E-4 | 5.9202085 | 1.5E-4 | 3.46563E-4 | 3.7110393E-4 | 6.010186E-4 | 1.6195425 | 2.3E-4 | 0.0034602303 | 0.003705354 | 0.0040042424 | 1.0806639 | 3.0E-4 |
| 6.5 | 6.642994E-6 | 7.113379E-6 | 1.4711238E-4 | 20.681084 | 1.4E-4 | 2.8469662E-5 | 3.0485584E-5 | 1.8048102E-4 | 5.9202085 | 1.5E-4 | 3.46563E-4 | 3.7110393E-4 | 6.010186E-4 | 1.6195425 | 2.3E-4 | 0.0034602303 | 0.003705354 | 0.0040042424 | 1.0806639 | 3.0E-4 |
| 6.6 | 6.1286296E-6 | 6.561993E-6 | 1.1656127E-4 | 17.76309 | 1.1E-4 | 2.626529E-5 | 2.8122551E-5 | 1.4811917E-4 | 5.266918 | 1.2E-4 | 3.19733E-4 | 3.4234306E-4 | 5.3227803E-4 | 1.5548089 | 1.9E-4 | 0.0031927335 | 0.003418633 | 0.0036777442 | 1.0757937 | 2.6E-4 |
| 6.7 | 4.9474666E-6 | 5.3030303E-6 | 6.530271E-5 | 12.314226 | 6.0E-5 | 2.1203256E-5 | 2.272709E-5 | 9.27255E-5 | 4.0799546 | 7.0E-5 | 2.5811905E-4 | 2.7667003E-4 | 3.9663684E-4 | 1.4336096 | 1.2E-4 | 0.0025781945 | 0.0027635363 | 0.0029230942 | 1.0577369 | 1.6E-4 |
| 6.8 | 4.616407E-6 | 4.950762E-6 | 6.4950465E-5 | 13.119287 | 6.0E-5 | 1.978445E-5 | 2.1217395E-5 | 9.121591E-5 | 4.29911 | 7.0E-5 | 2.4084905E-4 | 2.5829385E-4 | 3.7826286E-4 | 1.4644672 | 1.2E-4 | 0.0024058819 | 0.0025802013 | 0.0027397883 | 1.0618507 | 1.6E-4 |
| 6.9 | 4.320343E-6 | 4.6351224E-6 | 6.463484E-5 | 13.944582 | 6.0E-5 | 1.8515624E-5 | 1.9864674E-5 | 8.9863286E-5 | 4.5237737 | 7.0E-5 | 2.2540441E-4 | 2.4182817E-4 | 3.6179915E-4 | 1.4961001 | 1.2E-4 | 0.0022517592 | 0.0024159073 | 0.002575521 | 1.0660677 | 1.6E-4 |
| 7.0 | 3.7382292E-6 | 4.0132563E-6 | 6.401302E-5 | 15.950393 | 6.0E-5 | 1.6020884E-5 | 1.719957E-5 | 8.7198365E-5 | 5.069799 | 7.0E-5 | 1.950368E-4 | 2.0938704E-4 | 3.1936402E-4 | 1.5252329 | 1.1E-4 | 0.0019486571 | 0.0020921335 | 0.0022318405 | 1.0667773 | 1.4E-4 |
| 7.1 | 3.193576E-6 | 3.430897E-6 | 6.343069E-5 | 18.488077 | 6.0E-5 | 1.3686683E-5 | 1.47037745E-5 | 8.470275E-5 | 5.7606125 | 7.0E-5 | 1.6662262E-4 | 1.7900598E-4 | 2.7898807E-4 | 1.5585406 | 1.0E-4 | 0.0016649774 | 0.0017888371 | 0.0019186045 | 1.0725429 | 1.3E-4 |
| 7.2 | 2.2356758E-6 | 2.4046478E-6 | 2.24046E-5 | 9.317206 | 2.0E-5 | 9.581432E-6 | 1.0305604E-5 | 4.0305295E-5 | 3.9110076 | 3.0E-5 | 1.1664769E-4 | 1.2546539E-4 | 1.8545786E-4 | 1.4781595 | 6.0E-5 | 0.0011658648 | 0.0012541318 | 0.0013340313 | 1.0637091 | 8.0E-5 |
Dog Valley
(top)
| 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Year | 10 Year |
|---|
 |  |  |  |
| Magnitude | 1 wk TI Prob | 1 wk TD Prob | 1 wk ETAS Prob | 1 wk ETAS/TD Gain | 1 wk ETAS Triggered Only | 1 mo TI Prob | 1 mo TD Prob | 1 mo ETAS Prob | 1 mo ETAS/TD Gain | 1 mo ETAS Triggered Only | 1 yr TI Prob | 1 yr TD Prob | 1 yr ETAS Prob | 1 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 1 yr ETAS Triggered Only | 10 yr TI Prob | 10 yr TD Prob | 10 yr ETAS Prob | 10 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 10 yr ETAS Triggered Only |
|---|
| 6.0 | 7.949598E-6 | 8.280055E-6 | 1.6827873E-4 | 20.323381 | 1.6E-4 | 3.4069257E-5 | 3.548558E-5 | 2.3547848E-4 | 6.635892 | 2.0E-4 | 4.1471425E-4 | 4.3197096E-4 | 6.81863E-4 | 1.5784926 | 2.5E-4 | 0.0041394117 | 0.0043132454 | 0.0046119513 | 1.0692532 | 3.0E-4 |
| 6.1 | 7.949598E-6 | 8.280055E-6 | 1.6827873E-4 | 20.323381 | 1.6E-4 | 3.4069257E-5 | 3.548558E-5 | 2.3547848E-4 | 6.635892 | 2.0E-4 | 4.1471425E-4 | 4.3197096E-4 | 6.81863E-4 | 1.5784926 | 2.5E-4 | 0.0041394117 | 0.0043132454 | 0.0046119513 | 1.0692532 | 3.0E-4 |
| 6.2 | 7.949598E-6 | 8.280055E-6 | 1.6827873E-4 | 20.323381 | 1.6E-4 | 3.4069257E-5 | 3.548558E-5 | 2.3547848E-4 | 6.635892 | 2.0E-4 | 4.1471425E-4 | 4.3197096E-4 | 6.81863E-4 | 1.5784926 | 2.5E-4 | 0.0041394117 | 0.0043132454 | 0.0046119513 | 1.0692532 | 3.0E-4 |
| 6.3 | 7.949598E-6 | 8.280055E-6 | 1.6827873E-4 | 20.323381 | 1.6E-4 | 3.4069257E-5 | 3.548558E-5 | 2.3547848E-4 | 6.635892 | 2.0E-4 | 4.1471425E-4 | 4.3197096E-4 | 6.81863E-4 | 1.5784926 | 2.5E-4 | 0.0041394117 | 0.0043132454 | 0.0046119513 | 1.0692532 | 3.0E-4 |
| 6.4 | 4.462132E-6 | 4.625292E-6 | 1.4625246E-5 | 3.1620157 | 1.0E-5 | 1.9123283E-5 | 1.9822579E-5 | 3.9822182E-5 | 2.0089304 | 2.0E-5 | 2.328011E-4 | 2.4132214E-4 | 2.713149E-4 | 1.1242852 | 3.0E-5 | 0.0023255737 | 0.002411479 | 0.0024613582 | 1.0206841 | 5.0E-5 |
| 6.5 | 4.462132E-6 | 4.625292E-6 | 1.4625246E-5 | 3.1620157 | 1.0E-5 | 1.9123283E-5 | 1.9822579E-5 | 3.9822182E-5 | 2.0089304 | 2.0E-5 | 2.328011E-4 | 2.4132214E-4 | 2.713149E-4 | 1.1242852 | 3.0E-5 | 0.0023255737 | 0.002411479 | 0.0024613582 | 1.0206841 | 5.0E-5 |
| 6.6 | 4.074213E-6 | 4.219267E-6 | 1.4219225E-5 | 3.37007 | 1.0E-5 | 1.7460794E-5 | 1.8082497E-5 | 3.8082137E-5 | 2.106022 | 2.0E-5 | 2.1256444E-4 | 2.2014095E-4 | 2.5013436E-4 | 1.1362463 | 3.0E-5 | 0.0021236122 | 0.0022000915 | 0.0022499815 | 1.0226763 | 5.0E-5 |
| 6.7 | 4.074213E-6 | 4.219267E-6 | 1.4219225E-5 | 3.37007 | 1.0E-5 | 1.7460794E-5 | 1.8082497E-5 | 3.8082137E-5 | 2.106022 | 2.0E-5 | 2.1256444E-4 | 2.2014095E-4 | 2.5013436E-4 | 1.1362463 | 3.0E-5 | 0.0021236122 | 0.0022000915 | 0.0022499815 | 1.0226763 | 5.0E-5 |
| 6.8 | 1.6159543E-6 | 1.6507872E-6 | 1.6507872E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 6.9255E-6 | 7.074786E-6 | 1.7074715E-5 | 2.4134603 | 1.0E-5 | 8.43147E-5 | 8.613267E-5 | 9.613181E-5 | 1.1160899 | 1.0E-5 | 8.4282714E-4 | 8.610471E-4 | 8.710385E-4 | 1.0116037 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.9 | 1.3952654E-6 | 1.4256776E-6 | 1.4256776E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 5.9796953E-6 | 6.1100354E-6 | 1.6109974E-5 | 2.6366417 | 1.0E-5 | 7.280036E-5 | 7.438763E-5 | 8.4386884E-5 | 1.134421 | 1.0E-5 | 7.2776515E-4 | 7.4367534E-4 | 7.536679E-4 | 1.0134367 | 1.0E-5 |
| 7.0 | 1.1619308E-6 | 1.1872777E-6 | 1.1872777E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.979694E-6 | 5.088326E-6 | 1.5088275E-5 | 2.965273 | 1.0E-5 | 6.0626087E-5 | 6.194905E-5 | 7.194843E-5 | 1.161413 | 1.0E-5 | 6.060955E-4 | 6.193615E-4 | 6.293554E-4 | 1.0161357 | 1.0E-5 |
| 7.1 | 7.8723247E-7 | 8.0492674E-7 | 8.0492674E-7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.373849E-6 | 3.4496832E-6 | 1.3449649E-5 | 3.8988068 | 1.0E-5 | 4.107584E-5 | 4.199939E-5 | 5.199897E-5 | 1.2380887 | 1.0E-5 | 4.1068246E-4 | 4.199444E-4 | 4.299402E-4 | 1.0238026 | 1.0E-5 |
West Tahoe
(top)
| 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Year | 10 Year |
|---|
 |  |  |  |
| Magnitude | 1 wk TI Prob | 1 wk TD Prob | 1 wk ETAS Prob | 1 wk ETAS/TD Gain | 1 wk ETAS Triggered Only | 1 mo TI Prob | 1 mo TD Prob | 1 mo ETAS Prob | 1 mo ETAS/TD Gain | 1 mo ETAS Triggered Only | 1 yr TI Prob | 1 yr TD Prob | 1 yr ETAS Prob | 1 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 1 yr ETAS Triggered Only | 10 yr TI Prob | 10 yr TD Prob | 10 yr ETAS Prob | 10 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 10 yr ETAS Triggered Only |
|---|
| 6.0 | 1.952444E-5 | 2.1206122E-5 | 8.120485E-5 | 3.8293116 | 6.0E-5 | 8.367348E-5 | 9.088052E-5 | 1.6087416E-4 | 1.770172 | 7.0E-5 | 0.0010182485 | 0.0011059636 | 0.0012258309 | 1.1083827 | 1.2E-4 | 0.010135954 | 0.011010095 | 0.011168333 | 1.0143721 | 1.6E-4 |
| 6.1 | 1.952444E-5 | 2.1206122E-5 | 8.120485E-5 | 3.8293116 | 6.0E-5 | 8.367348E-5 | 9.088052E-5 | 1.6087416E-4 | 1.770172 | 7.0E-5 | 0.0010182485 | 0.0011059636 | 0.0012258309 | 1.1083827 | 1.2E-4 | 0.010135954 | 0.011010095 | 0.011168333 | 1.0143721 | 1.6E-4 |
| 6.2 | 1.952444E-5 | 2.1206122E-5 | 8.120485E-5 | 3.8293116 | 6.0E-5 | 8.367348E-5 | 9.088052E-5 | 1.6087416E-4 | 1.770172 | 7.0E-5 | 0.0010182485 | 0.0011059636 | 0.0012258309 | 1.1083827 | 1.2E-4 | 0.010135954 | 0.011010095 | 0.011168333 | 1.0143721 | 1.6E-4 |
| 6.3 | 1.952444E-5 | 2.1206122E-5 | 8.120485E-5 | 3.8293116 | 6.0E-5 | 8.367348E-5 | 9.088052E-5 | 1.6087416E-4 | 1.770172 | 7.0E-5 | 0.0010182485 | 0.0011059636 | 0.0012258309 | 1.1083827 | 1.2E-4 | 0.010135954 | 0.011010095 | 0.011168333 | 1.0143721 | 1.6E-4 |
| 6.4 | 1.952444E-5 | 2.1206122E-5 | 8.120485E-5 | 3.8293116 | 6.0E-5 | 8.367348E-5 | 9.088052E-5 | 1.6087416E-4 | 1.770172 | 7.0E-5 | 0.0010182485 | 0.0011059636 | 0.0012258309 | 1.1083827 | 1.2E-4 | 0.010135954 | 0.011010095 | 0.011168333 | 1.0143721 | 1.6E-4 |
| 6.5 | 1.2685271E-5 | 1.3704452E-5 | 7.370363E-5 | 5.3780794 | 6.0E-5 | 5.4364315E-5 | 5.8732137E-5 | 1.2872802E-4 | 2.1917818 | 7.0E-5 | 6.616845E-4 | 7.1484566E-4 | 8.347599E-4 | 1.1677485 | 1.2E-4 | 0.0065971776 | 0.0071271155 | 0.0072859754 | 1.0222895 | 1.6E-4 |
| 6.6 | 1.2685271E-5 | 1.3704452E-5 | 7.370363E-5 | 5.3780794 | 6.0E-5 | 5.4364315E-5 | 5.8732137E-5 | 1.2872802E-4 | 2.1917818 | 7.0E-5 | 6.616845E-4 | 7.1484566E-4 | 8.347599E-4 | 1.1677485 | 1.2E-4 | 0.0065971776 | 0.0071271155 | 0.0072859754 | 1.0222895 | 1.6E-4 |
| 6.7 | 9.117886E-6 | 9.819327E-6 | 6.9818736E-5 | 7.1103387 | 6.0E-5 | 3.9076072E-5 | 4.208219E-5 | 1.12079244E-4 | 2.6633415 | 7.0E-5 | 4.756473E-4 | 5.122374E-4 | 6.3217594E-4 | 1.2341464 | 1.2E-4 | 0.0047463053 | 0.0051112864 | 0.0052704685 | 1.0311433 | 1.6E-4 |
| 6.8 | 8.786828E-6 | 9.46706E-6 | 6.946649E-5 | 7.3377047 | 6.0E-5 | 3.7657293E-5 | 4.0572522E-5 | 1.1056969E-4 | 2.7252355 | 7.0E-5 | 4.5838108E-4 | 4.938656E-4 | 6.138063E-4 | 1.2428612 | 1.2E-4 | 0.0045743673 | 0.004928383 | 0.0050875945 | 1.032305 | 1.6E-4 |
| 6.9 | 6.7562123E-6 | 7.2707558E-6 | 6.727032E-5 | 9.252177 | 6.0E-5 | 2.8954875E-5 | 3.1160038E-5 | 1.0115786E-4 | 3.246397 | 7.0E-5 | 3.5246857E-4 | 3.7931217E-4 | 4.9926667E-4 | 1.3162421 | 1.2E-4 | 0.0035191004 | 0.0037871206 | 0.0039465143 | 1.0420885 | 1.6E-4 |
| 7.0 | 5.1792854E-6 | 5.5726478E-6 | 6.557231E-5 | 11.766814 | 6.0E-5 | 2.2196748E-5 | 2.388258E-5 | 9.388091E-5 | 3.9309368 | 7.0E-5 | 2.702119E-4 | 2.9073542E-4 | 4.0070343E-4 | 1.3782408 | 1.1E-4 | 0.0026988357 | 0.0029039264 | 0.00304352 | 1.0480705 | 1.4E-4 |
| 7.1 | 4.090765E-6 | 4.4016183E-6 | 6.4401356E-5 | 14.63129 | 6.0E-5 | 1.7531731E-5 | 1.886396E-5 | 8.886264E-5 | 4.7107096 | 7.0E-5 | 2.134279E-4 | 2.2964792E-4 | 3.2962498E-4 | 1.4353492 | 1.0E-4 | 0.0021322304 | 0.0022944412 | 0.002424143 | 1.0565287 | 1.3E-4 |
| 7.2 | 2.2356758E-6 | 2.4046478E-6 | 2.24046E-5 | 9.317206 | 2.0E-5 | 9.581432E-6 | 1.0305604E-5 | 4.0305295E-5 | 3.9110076 | 3.0E-5 | 1.1664769E-4 | 1.2546539E-4 | 1.8545786E-4 | 1.4781595 | 6.0E-5 | 0.0011658648 | 0.0012541318 | 0.0013340313 | 1.0637091 | 8.0E-5 |
Mohawk Valley 2011 CFM
(top)
| 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Year | 10 Year |
|---|
 |  |  |  |
| Magnitude | 1 wk TI Prob | 1 wk TD Prob | 1 wk ETAS Prob | 1 wk ETAS/TD Gain | 1 wk ETAS Triggered Only | 1 mo TI Prob | 1 mo TD Prob | 1 mo ETAS Prob | 1 mo ETAS/TD Gain | 1 mo ETAS Triggered Only | 1 yr TI Prob | 1 yr TD Prob | 1 yr ETAS Prob | 1 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 1 yr ETAS Triggered Only | 10 yr TI Prob | 10 yr TD Prob | 10 yr ETAS Prob | 10 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 10 yr ETAS Triggered Only |
|---|
| 6.0 | 2.5425423E-5 | 2.7675525E-5 | 4.767497E-5 | 1.7226402 | 2.0E-5 | 1.0896155E-4 | 1.18604614E-4 | 1.3860225E-4 | 1.1686075 | 2.0E-5 | 0.0013257994 | 0.0014431634 | 0.0014930912 | 1.0345961 | 5.0E-5 | 0.013179175 | 0.014348822 | 0.014427674 | 1.0054954 | 8.0E-5 |
| 6.1 | 2.5425423E-5 | 2.7675525E-5 | 4.767497E-5 | 1.7226402 | 2.0E-5 | 1.0896155E-4 | 1.18604614E-4 | 1.3860225E-4 | 1.1686075 | 2.0E-5 | 0.0013257994 | 0.0014431634 | 0.0014930912 | 1.0345961 | 5.0E-5 | 0.013179175 | 0.014348822 | 0.014427674 | 1.0054954 | 8.0E-5 |
| 6.2 | 2.5425423E-5 | 2.7675525E-5 | 4.767497E-5 | 1.7226402 | 2.0E-5 | 1.0896155E-4 | 1.18604614E-4 | 1.3860225E-4 | 1.1686075 | 2.0E-5 | 0.0013257994 | 0.0014431634 | 0.0014930912 | 1.0345961 | 5.0E-5 | 0.013179175 | 0.014348822 | 0.014427674 | 1.0054954 | 8.0E-5 |
| 6.3 | 2.5425423E-5 | 2.7675525E-5 | 4.767497E-5 | 1.7226402 | 2.0E-5 | 1.0896155E-4 | 1.18604614E-4 | 1.3860225E-4 | 1.1686075 | 2.0E-5 | 0.0013257994 | 0.0014431634 | 0.0014930912 | 1.0345961 | 5.0E-5 | 0.013179175 | 0.014348822 | 0.014427674 | 1.0054954 | 8.0E-5 |
| 6.4 | 1.1812642E-5 | 1.2776665E-5 | 1.2776665E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 5.0624625E-5 | 5.475607E-5 | 5.475607E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 6.161805E-4 | 6.66466E-4 | 6.864527E-4 | 1.029989 | 2.0E-5 | 0.0061447476 | 0.0066461493 | 0.00667595 | 1.0044839 | 3.0E-5 |
| 6.5 | 1.1812642E-5 | 1.2776665E-5 | 1.2776665E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 5.0624625E-5 | 5.475607E-5 | 5.475607E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 6.161805E-4 | 6.66466E-4 | 6.864527E-4 | 1.029989 | 2.0E-5 | 0.0061447476 | 0.0066461493 | 0.00667595 | 1.0044839 | 3.0E-5 |
| 6.6 | 9.34204E-6 | 1.0095401E-5 | 1.0095401E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.0036703E-5 | 4.3265354E-5 | 4.3265354E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.873378E-4 | 5.2664016E-4 | 5.366349E-4 | 1.0189782 | 1.0E-5 | 0.0048627043 | 0.005255092 | 0.0052650394 | 1.0018929 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.7 | 7.0661854E-6 | 7.631863E-6 | 7.631863E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.02833E-5 | 3.2707627E-5 | 3.2707627E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.686368E-4 | 3.981517E-4 | 4.081477E-4 | 1.0251061 | 1.0E-5 | 0.0036802588 | 0.0039752806 | 0.003985241 | 1.0025055 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.8 | 4.806676E-6 | 5.1924426E-6 | 5.1924426E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0599877E-5 | 2.2253173E-5 | 2.2253173E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.507746E-4 | 2.7090506E-4 | 2.8090237E-4 | 1.0369033 | 1.0E-5 | 0.0025049183 | 0.0027063761 | 0.002716349 | 1.003685 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.9 | 3.4163209E-6 | 3.6926435E-6 | 3.6926435E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.4641293E-5 | 1.582555E-5 | 1.582555E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.7824316E-4 | 1.9266446E-4 | 2.0266253E-4 | 1.0518937 | 1.0E-5 | 0.0017810026 | 0.0019255073 | 0.0019354881 | 1.0051835 | 1.0E-5 |
| 7.0 | 2.5271734E-6 | 2.7338162E-6 | 2.7338162E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0830699E-5 | 1.171633E-5 | 1.171633E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.3185578E-4 | 1.4264192E-4 | 1.4264192E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0013177756 | 0.0014259883 | 0.0014259883 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
North Tahoe 2011 CFM
(top)
| 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Year | 10 Year |
|---|
 |  |  |  |
| Magnitude | 1 wk TI Prob | 1 wk TD Prob | 1 wk ETAS Prob | 1 wk ETAS/TD Gain | 1 wk ETAS Triggered Only | 1 mo TI Prob | 1 mo TD Prob | 1 mo ETAS Prob | 1 mo ETAS/TD Gain | 1 mo ETAS Triggered Only | 1 yr TI Prob | 1 yr TD Prob | 1 yr ETAS Prob | 1 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 1 yr ETAS Triggered Only | 10 yr TI Prob | 10 yr TD Prob | 10 yr ETAS Prob | 10 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 10 yr ETAS Triggered Only |
|---|
| 6.0 | 2.150391E-5 | 2.21965E-5 | 3.219628E-5 | 1.4505115 | 1.0E-5 | 9.215636E-5 | 9.51255E-5 | 1.151236E-4 | 1.2102286 | 2.0E-5 | 0.0011214261 | 0.0011577341 | 0.0011876994 | 1.0258827 | 3.0E-5 | 0.011157839 | 0.011536337 | 0.011585761 | 1.0042841 | 5.0E-5 |
| 6.1 | 2.150391E-5 | 2.21965E-5 | 3.219628E-5 | 1.4505115 | 1.0E-5 | 9.215636E-5 | 9.51255E-5 | 1.151236E-4 | 1.2102286 | 2.0E-5 | 0.0011214261 | 0.0011577341 | 0.0011876994 | 1.0258827 | 3.0E-5 | 0.011157839 | 0.011536337 | 0.011585761 | 1.0042841 | 5.0E-5 |
| 6.2 | 2.150391E-5 | 2.21965E-5 | 3.219628E-5 | 1.4505115 | 1.0E-5 | 9.215636E-5 | 9.51255E-5 | 1.151236E-4 | 1.2102286 | 2.0E-5 | 0.0011214261 | 0.0011577341 | 0.0011876994 | 1.0258827 | 3.0E-5 | 0.011157839 | 0.011536337 | 0.011585761 | 1.0042841 | 5.0E-5 |
| 6.3 | 2.150391E-5 | 2.21965E-5 | 3.219628E-5 | 1.4505115 | 1.0E-5 | 9.215636E-5 | 9.51255E-5 | 1.151236E-4 | 1.2102286 | 2.0E-5 | 0.0011214261 | 0.0011577341 | 0.0011876994 | 1.0258827 | 3.0E-5 | 0.011157839 | 0.011536337 | 0.011585761 | 1.0042841 | 5.0E-5 |
| 6.4 | 7.3563056E-6 | 6.4541123E-6 | 6.4541123E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.1526644E-5 | 2.766036E-5 | 2.766036E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.8376928E-4 | 3.367435E-4 | 3.367435E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.003831072 | 0.0033653372 | 0.0033653372 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 6.5 | 7.3563056E-6 | 6.4541123E-6 | 6.4541123E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.1526644E-5 | 2.766036E-5 | 2.766036E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.8376928E-4 | 3.367435E-4 | 3.367435E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.003831072 | 0.0033653372 | 0.0033653372 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 6.6 | 6.8508816E-6 | 5.8925E-6 | 5.8925E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.936059E-5 | 2.5253501E-5 | 2.5253501E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.5740656E-4 | 3.0744844E-4 | 3.0744844E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0035683226 | 0.0030732164 | 0.0030732164 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 6.7 | 1.8511148E-6 | 6.112571E-7 | 6.112571E-7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 7.933325E-6 | 2.6196733E-6 | 2.6196733E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 9.658395E-5 | 3.1894524E-5 | 3.1894524E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 9.6541987E-4 | 3.189452E-4 | 3.189452E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
Honey Lake 2011 CFM
(top)
| 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Year | 10 Year |
|---|
 |  |  |  |
| Magnitude | 1 wk TI Prob | 1 wk TD Prob | 1 wk ETAS Prob | 1 wk ETAS/TD Gain | 1 wk ETAS Triggered Only | 1 mo TI Prob | 1 mo TD Prob | 1 mo ETAS Prob | 1 mo ETAS/TD Gain | 1 mo ETAS Triggered Only | 1 yr TI Prob | 1 yr TD Prob | 1 yr ETAS Prob | 1 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 1 yr ETAS Triggered Only | 10 yr TI Prob | 10 yr TD Prob | 10 yr ETAS Prob | 10 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 10 yr ETAS Triggered Only |
|---|
| 6.0 | 6.155506E-5 | 7.983529E-5 | 7.983529E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.6378073E-4 | 3.421095E-4 | 3.521061E-4 | 1.0292205 | 1.0E-5 | 0.0032068014 | 0.004157668 | 0.0041676266 | 1.0023952 | 1.0E-5 | 0.03160919 | 0.04084671 | 0.04086589 | 1.0004697 | 2.0E-5 |
| 6.1 | 6.155506E-5 | 7.983529E-5 | 7.983529E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.6378073E-4 | 3.421095E-4 | 3.521061E-4 | 1.0292205 | 1.0E-5 | 0.0032068014 | 0.004157668 | 0.0041676266 | 1.0023952 | 1.0E-5 | 0.03160919 | 0.04084671 | 0.04086589 | 1.0004697 | 2.0E-5 |
| 6.2 | 4.1335024E-5 | 5.275627E-5 | 5.275627E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.7713808E-4 | 2.2607965E-4 | 2.3607738E-4 | 1.0442222 | 1.0E-5 | 0.0021545228 | 0.0027491944 | 0.0027591668 | 1.0036274 | 1.0E-5 | 0.021337535 | 0.027167726 | 0.027177453 | 1.0003581 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.3 | 4.1335024E-5 | 5.275627E-5 | 5.275627E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.7713808E-4 | 2.2607965E-4 | 2.3607738E-4 | 1.0442222 | 1.0E-5 | 0.0021545228 | 0.0027491944 | 0.0027591668 | 1.0036274 | 1.0E-5 | 0.021337535 | 0.027167726 | 0.027177453 | 1.0003581 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.4 | 3.2393702E-5 | 4.1022788E-5 | 4.1022788E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.3882275E-4 | 1.7580073E-4 | 1.8579897E-4 | 1.0568726 | 1.0E-5 | 0.0016888566 | 0.00213838 | 0.0021483586 | 1.0046664 | 1.0E-5 | 0.016760793 | 0.021188965 | 0.021198753 | 1.0004619 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.5 | 2.7205504E-5 | 3.432351E-5 | 3.432351E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.1658981E-4 | 1.4709297E-4 | 1.570915E-4 | 1.0679742 | 1.0E-5 | 0.0014185566 | 0.0017894797 | 0.0017994618 | 1.0055782 | 1.0E-5 | 0.014095354 | 0.01776019 | 0.017770011 | 1.000553 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.6 | 2.069265E-5 | 2.6039463E-5 | 2.6039463E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 8.867977E-5 | 1.11593414E-4 | 1.215923E-4 | 1.089601 | 1.0E-5 | 0.0010791414 | 0.0013578869 | 0.0013678733 | 1.0073544 | 1.0E-5 | 0.010739161 | 0.013504297 | 0.013514161 | 1.0007305 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.7 | 1.8060919E-5 | 2.2730344E-5 | 2.2730344E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 7.7401644E-5 | 9.741258E-5 | 1.0741161E-4 | 1.1026461 | 1.0E-5 | 9.419576E-4 | 0.0011854343 | 0.0011954224 | 1.0084257 | 1.0E-5 | 0.009379748 | 0.011799195 | 0.011809076 | 1.0008376 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.8 | 1.4474663E-5 | 1.8240637E-5 | 1.8240637E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 6.203279E-5 | 7.817225E-5 | 8.8171466E-5 | 1.1279126 | 1.0E-5 | 7.5498753E-4 | 9.5140835E-4 | 9.613988E-4 | 1.0105008 | 1.0E-5 | 0.007524277 | 0.009480922 | 0.009490826 | 1.0010448 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.9 | 8.564552E-6 | 1.0838293E-5 | 1.0838293E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.6704707E-5 | 4.644938E-5 | 5.6448913E-5 | 1.2152781 | 1.0E-5 | 4.4678818E-4 | 5.6544115E-4 | 5.754355E-4 | 1.0176753 | 1.0E-5 | 0.0044589094 | 0.0056465594 | 0.005656503 | 1.001761 | 1.0E-5 |
Hat Creek-McArthur-Mayfield
(top)
| 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Year | 10 Year |
|---|
 |  |  |  |
| Magnitude | 1 wk TI Prob | 1 wk TD Prob | 1 wk ETAS Prob | 1 wk ETAS/TD Gain | 1 wk ETAS Triggered Only | 1 mo TI Prob | 1 mo TD Prob | 1 mo ETAS Prob | 1 mo ETAS/TD Gain | 1 mo ETAS Triggered Only | 1 yr TI Prob | 1 yr TD Prob | 1 yr ETAS Prob | 1 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 1 yr ETAS Triggered Only | 10 yr TI Prob | 10 yr TD Prob | 10 yr ETAS Prob | 10 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 10 yr ETAS Triggered Only |
|---|
| 6.0 | 3.967457E-5 | 4.3206768E-5 | 5.3206335E-5 | 1.2314352 | 1.0E-5 | 1.7002279E-4 | 1.8515937E-4 | 1.9515753E-4 | 1.0539975 | 1.0E-5 | 0.002068062 | 0.002252099 | 0.0022620766 | 1.0044303 | 1.0E-5 | 0.02048922 | 0.022305153 | 0.022324707 | 1.0008767 | 2.0E-5 |
| 6.1 | 2.5044013E-5 | 2.7099139E-5 | 2.7099139E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0732707E-4 | 1.1613418E-4 | 1.1613418E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0013059238 | 0.0014130484 | 0.0014130484 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.01298276 | 0.014044061 | 0.014053921 | 1.000702 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.2 | 2.5044013E-5 | 2.7099139E-5 | 2.7099139E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0732707E-4 | 1.1613418E-4 | 1.1613418E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0013059238 | 0.0014130484 | 0.0014130484 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.01298276 | 0.014044061 | 0.014053921 | 1.000702 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.3 | 1.6624012E-5 | 1.7908458E-5 | 1.7908458E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 7.124382E-5 | 7.674832E-5 | 7.674832E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 8.670483E-4 | 9.3401887E-4 | 9.3401887E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.008636732 | 0.009301868 | 0.009311776 | 1.001065 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.4 | 1.6624012E-5 | 1.7908458E-5 | 1.7908458E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 7.124382E-5 | 7.674832E-5 | 7.674832E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 8.670483E-4 | 9.3401887E-4 | 9.3401887E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.008636732 | 0.009301868 | 0.009311776 | 1.001065 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.5 | 1.3394842E-5 | 1.4405791E-5 | 1.4405791E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 5.7405203E-5 | 6.173768E-5 | 6.173768E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 6.986842E-4 | 7.514026E-4 | 7.514026E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.006964916 | 0.0074892133 | 0.0074991384 | 1.0013252 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.6 | 1.1137514E-5 | 1.1965718E-5 | 1.1965718E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.7731326E-5 | 5.1280662E-5 | 5.1280662E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 5.809739E-4 | 6.241672E-4 | 6.241672E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.005794574 | 0.0062245643 | 0.006234502 | 1.0015966 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.7 | 7.0200663E-6 | 7.531171E-6 | 7.531171E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.008565E-5 | 3.2276057E-5 | 3.2276057E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.6623122E-4 | 3.9289173E-4 | 3.9289173E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0036562826 | 0.003922134 | 0.003922134 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 6.8 | 5.940172E-6 | 6.371279E-6 | 6.371279E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.545763E-5 | 2.7305203E-5 | 2.7305203E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0990256E-4 | 3.323914E-4 | 3.323914E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0030947074 | 0.0033190714 | 0.0033190714 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 6.9 | 4.129831E-6 | 4.427552E-6 | 4.427552E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.7699154E-5 | 1.897509E-5 | 1.897509E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.154659E-4 | 2.30998E-4 | 2.30998E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.002152571 | 0.0023076574 | 0.0023076574 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 7.0 | 2.6512955E-6 | 2.839935E-6 | 2.839935E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.1362646E-5 | 1.21710955E-5 | 1.21710955E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.3833142E-4 | 1.4817344E-4 | 1.4817344E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0013824535 | 0.001480789 | 0.001480789 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 7.1 | 1.2992575E-6 | 1.3921807E-6 | 1.3921807E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 5.568235E-6 | 5.9664762E-6 | 5.9664762E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 6.779115E-5 | 7.263965E-5 | 7.263965E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 6.7770475E-4 | 7.261807E-4 | 7.261807E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 7.2 | 4.968191E-7 | 5.3320457E-7 | 5.3320457E-7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.1292228E-6 | 2.2851611E-6 | 2.2851611E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.592298E-5 | 2.7821608E-5 | 2.7821608E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.5919956E-4 | 2.7819362E-4 | 2.7819362E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
Last Chance
(top)
| 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Year | 10 Year |
|---|
 |  |  |  |
| Magnitude | 1 wk TI Prob | 1 wk TD Prob | 1 wk ETAS Prob | 1 wk ETAS/TD Gain | 1 wk ETAS Triggered Only | 1 mo TI Prob | 1 mo TD Prob | 1 mo ETAS Prob | 1 mo ETAS/TD Gain | 1 mo ETAS Triggered Only | 1 yr TI Prob | 1 yr TD Prob | 1 yr ETAS Prob | 1 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 1 yr ETAS Triggered Only | 10 yr TI Prob | 10 yr TD Prob | 10 yr ETAS Prob | 10 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 10 yr ETAS Triggered Only |
|---|
| 6.0 | 3.23929E-6 | 3.3059853E-6 | 3.3059853E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.3882597E-5 | 1.4168446E-5 | 2.4168305E-5 | 1.7057837 | 1.0E-5 | 1.6900752E-4 | 1.7248966E-4 | 1.8248793E-4 | 1.0579644 | 1.0E-5 | 0.0016887904 | 0.0017238016 | 0.0017337843 | 1.0057912 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.1 | 3.23929E-6 | 3.3059853E-6 | 3.3059853E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.3882597E-5 | 1.4168446E-5 | 2.4168305E-5 | 1.7057837 | 1.0E-5 | 1.6900752E-4 | 1.7248966E-4 | 1.8248793E-4 | 1.0579644 | 1.0E-5 | 0.0016887904 | 0.0017238016 | 0.0017337843 | 1.0057912 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.2 | 3.23929E-6 | 3.3059853E-6 | 3.3059853E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.3882597E-5 | 1.4168446E-5 | 2.4168305E-5 | 1.7057837 | 1.0E-5 | 1.6900752E-4 | 1.7248966E-4 | 1.8248793E-4 | 1.0579644 | 1.0E-5 | 0.0016887904 | 0.0017238016 | 0.0017337843 | 1.0057912 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.3 | 3.23929E-6 | 3.3059853E-6 | 3.3059853E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.3882597E-5 | 1.4168446E-5 | 2.4168305E-5 | 1.7057837 | 1.0E-5 | 1.6900752E-4 | 1.7248966E-4 | 1.8248793E-4 | 1.0579644 | 1.0E-5 | 0.0016887904 | 0.0017238016 | 0.0017337843 | 1.0057912 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.4 | 3.23929E-6 | 3.3059853E-6 | 3.3059853E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.3882597E-5 | 1.4168446E-5 | 2.4168305E-5 | 1.7057837 | 1.0E-5 | 1.6900752E-4 | 1.7248966E-4 | 1.8248793E-4 | 1.0579644 | 1.0E-5 | 0.0016887904 | 0.0017238016 | 0.0017337843 | 1.0057912 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.5 | 3.23929E-6 | 3.3059853E-6 | 3.3059853E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.3882597E-5 | 1.4168446E-5 | 2.4168305E-5 | 1.7057837 | 1.0E-5 | 1.6900752E-4 | 1.7248966E-4 | 1.8248793E-4 | 1.0579644 | 1.0E-5 | 0.0016887904 | 0.0017238016 | 0.0017337843 | 1.0057912 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.6 | 3.23929E-6 | 3.3059853E-6 | 3.3059853E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.3882597E-5 | 1.4168446E-5 | 2.4168305E-5 | 1.7057837 | 1.0E-5 | 1.6900752E-4 | 1.7248966E-4 | 1.8248793E-4 | 1.0579644 | 1.0E-5 | 0.0016887904 | 0.0017238016 | 0.0017337843 | 1.0057912 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.7 | 1.9639244E-6 | 2.0049802E-6 | 2.0049802E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 8.416792E-6 | 8.592748E-6 | 1.8592662E-5 | 2.163762 | 1.0E-5 | 1.02469625E-4 | 1.04612314E-4 | 1.1461127E-4 | 1.095581 | 1.0E-5 | 0.0010242239 | 0.0010456932 | 0.0010556828 | 1.0095531 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.8 | 1.8490592E-6 | 1.8879906E-6 | 1.8879906E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 7.924516E-6 | 8.091367E-6 | 1.8091285E-5 | 2.2358751 | 1.0E-5 | 9.64767E-5 | 9.850856E-5 | 1.0850757E-4 | 1.101504 | 1.0E-5 | 9.643483E-4 | 9.847101E-4 | 9.947002E-4 | 1.0101453 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.9 | 1.6283703E-6 | 1.662881E-6 | 1.662881E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 6.9787116E-6 | 7.1266168E-6 | 1.7126546E-5 | 2.4031804 | 1.0E-5 | 8.49625E-5 | 8.676366E-5 | 9.676279E-5 | 1.1152456 | 1.0E-5 | 8.4930024E-4 | 8.673528E-4 | 8.773441E-4 | 1.0115193 | 1.0E-5 |
| 7.0 | 1.1619308E-6 | 1.1872777E-6 | 1.1872777E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.979694E-6 | 5.088326E-6 | 1.5088275E-5 | 2.965273 | 1.0E-5 | 6.0626087E-5 | 6.194905E-5 | 7.194843E-5 | 1.161413 | 1.0E-5 | 6.060955E-4 | 6.193615E-4 | 6.293554E-4 | 1.0161357 | 1.0E-5 |
| 7.1 | 7.8723247E-7 | 8.0492674E-7 | 8.0492674E-7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.373849E-6 | 3.4496832E-6 | 1.3449649E-5 | 3.8988068 | 1.0E-5 | 4.107584E-5 | 4.199939E-5 | 5.199897E-5 | 1.2380887 | 1.0E-5 | 4.1068246E-4 | 4.199444E-4 | 4.299402E-4 | 1.0238026 | 1.0E-5 |