Parent Section Magnitude-Probability Distributions
Only fault sections with at least one triggered aftershock are plotted. Sections are sorted by total supraseismogenic trigger rate (decreasing)
Table Of Contents
Polaris 2011 CFM
(top)
| 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Year | 10 Year |
|---|
 |  |  |  |
| Magnitude | 1 wk TI Prob | 1 wk TD Prob | 1 wk ETAS Prob | 1 wk ETAS/TD Gain | 1 wk ETAS Triggered Only | 1 mo TI Prob | 1 mo TD Prob | 1 mo ETAS Prob | 1 mo ETAS/TD Gain | 1 mo ETAS Triggered Only | 1 yr TI Prob | 1 yr TD Prob | 1 yr ETAS Prob | 1 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 1 yr ETAS Triggered Only | 10 yr TI Prob | 10 yr TD Prob | 10 yr ETAS Prob | 10 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 10 yr ETAS Triggered Only |
|---|
| 6.0 | 1.2630823E-5 | 1.3595956E-5 | 5.835882E-4 | 42.92366 | 5.7E-4 | 5.413098E-5 | 5.8267375E-5 | 7.3822774E-4 | 12.669659 | 6.8E-4 | 6.5884535E-4 | 7.0922635E-4 | 0.001608588 | 2.2680883 | 9.0E-4 | 0.0065689543 | 0.007074749 | 0.008157037 | 1.152979 | 0.00109 |
| 6.1 | 1.2630823E-5 | 1.3595956E-5 | 5.835882E-4 | 42.92366 | 5.7E-4 | 5.413098E-5 | 5.8267375E-5 | 7.3822774E-4 | 12.669659 | 6.8E-4 | 6.5884535E-4 | 7.0922635E-4 | 0.001608588 | 2.2680883 | 9.0E-4 | 0.0065689543 | 0.007074749 | 0.008157037 | 1.152979 | 0.00109 |
| 6.2 | 1.2630823E-5 | 1.3595956E-5 | 5.835882E-4 | 42.92366 | 5.7E-4 | 5.413098E-5 | 5.8267375E-5 | 7.3822774E-4 | 12.669659 | 6.8E-4 | 6.5884535E-4 | 7.0922635E-4 | 0.001608588 | 2.2680883 | 9.0E-4 | 0.0065689543 | 0.007074749 | 0.008157037 | 1.152979 | 0.00109 |
| 6.3 | 1.2630823E-5 | 1.3595956E-5 | 5.835882E-4 | 42.92366 | 5.7E-4 | 5.413098E-5 | 5.8267375E-5 | 7.3822774E-4 | 12.669659 | 6.8E-4 | 6.5884535E-4 | 7.0922635E-4 | 0.001608588 | 2.2680883 | 9.0E-4 | 0.0065689543 | 0.007074749 | 0.008157037 | 1.152979 | 0.00109 |
| 6.4 | 6.642994E-6 | 7.113379E-6 | 1.5711231E-4 | 22.086874 | 1.5E-4 | 2.8469662E-5 | 3.0485584E-5 | 2.004804E-4 | 6.5762362 | 1.7E-4 | 3.46563E-4 | 3.7110393E-4 | 6.1101484E-4 | 1.6464791 | 2.4E-4 | 0.0034602303 | 0.003705354 | 0.0039643906 | 1.0699087 | 2.6E-4 |
| 6.5 | 6.642994E-6 | 7.113379E-6 | 1.5711231E-4 | 22.086874 | 1.5E-4 | 2.8469662E-5 | 3.0485584E-5 | 2.004804E-4 | 6.5762362 | 1.7E-4 | 3.46563E-4 | 3.7110393E-4 | 6.1101484E-4 | 1.6464791 | 2.4E-4 | 0.0034602303 | 0.003705354 | 0.0039643906 | 1.0699087 | 2.6E-4 |
| 6.6 | 6.1286296E-6 | 6.561993E-6 | 1.1656127E-4 | 17.76309 | 1.1E-4 | 2.626529E-5 | 2.8122551E-5 | 1.4811917E-4 | 5.266918 | 1.2E-4 | 3.19733E-4 | 3.4234306E-4 | 5.3227803E-4 | 1.5548089 | 1.9E-4 | 0.0031927335 | 0.003418633 | 0.0036179493 | 1.0583029 | 2.0E-4 |
| 6.7 | 4.9474666E-6 | 5.3030303E-6 | 9.530255E-5 | 17.971338 | 9.0E-5 | 2.1203256E-5 | 2.272709E-5 | 1.2272481E-4 | 5.3999352 | 1.0E-4 | 2.5811905E-4 | 2.7667003E-4 | 4.0663406E-4 | 1.4697438 | 1.3E-4 | 0.0025781945 | 0.0027635363 | 0.0029031495 | 1.0505197 | 1.4E-4 |
| 6.8 | 4.616407E-6 | 4.950762E-6 | 9.4950316E-5 | 19.178928 | 9.0E-5 | 1.978445E-5 | 2.1217395E-5 | 1.2121527E-4 | 5.713014 | 1.0E-4 | 2.4084905E-4 | 2.5829385E-4 | 3.8826026E-4 | 1.5031728 | 1.3E-4 | 0.0024058819 | 0.0025802013 | 0.00271984 | 1.0541193 | 1.4E-4 |
| 6.9 | 4.320343E-6 | 4.6351224E-6 | 9.4634706E-5 | 20.416874 | 9.0E-5 | 1.8515624E-5 | 1.9864674E-5 | 1.19862685E-4 | 6.0339622 | 1.0E-4 | 2.2540441E-4 | 2.4182817E-4 | 3.7179672E-4 | 1.5374417 | 1.3E-4 | 0.0022517592 | 0.0024159073 | 0.0025555692 | 1.0578092 | 1.4E-4 |
| 7.0 | 3.7382292E-6 | 4.0132563E-6 | 8.4012936E-5 | 20.933857 | 8.0E-5 | 1.6020884E-5 | 1.719957E-5 | 1.0719802E-4 | 6.232599 | 9.0E-5 | 1.950368E-4 | 2.0938704E-4 | 3.0936612E-4 | 1.4774845 | 1.0E-4 | 0.0019486571 | 0.0020921335 | 0.0022019034 | 1.052468 | 1.1E-4 |
| 7.1 | 3.193576E-6 | 3.430897E-6 | 7.343066E-5 | 21.402758 | 7.0E-5 | 1.3686683E-5 | 1.47037745E-5 | 9.47026E-5 | 6.4407 | 8.0E-5 | 1.6662262E-4 | 1.7900598E-4 | 2.6898985E-4 | 1.5026865 | 9.0E-5 | 0.0016649774 | 0.0017888371 | 0.0018886582 | 1.0558022 | 1.0E-4 |
| 7.2 | 2.2356758E-6 | 2.4046478E-6 | 4.240455E-5 | 17.634413 | 4.0E-5 | 9.581432E-6 | 1.0305604E-5 | 5.0305192E-5 | 4.881344 | 4.0E-5 | 1.1664769E-4 | 1.2546539E-4 | 1.6546037E-4 | 1.318773 | 4.0E-5 | 0.0011658648 | 0.0012541318 | 0.0013040691 | 1.0398182 | 5.0E-5 |
Dog Valley
(top)
| 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Year | 10 Year |
|---|
 |  |  |  |
| Magnitude | 1 wk TI Prob | 1 wk TD Prob | 1 wk ETAS Prob | 1 wk ETAS/TD Gain | 1 wk ETAS Triggered Only | 1 mo TI Prob | 1 mo TD Prob | 1 mo ETAS Prob | 1 mo ETAS/TD Gain | 1 mo ETAS Triggered Only | 1 yr TI Prob | 1 yr TD Prob | 1 yr ETAS Prob | 1 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 1 yr ETAS Triggered Only | 10 yr TI Prob | 10 yr TD Prob | 10 yr ETAS Prob | 10 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 10 yr ETAS Triggered Only |
|---|
| 6.0 | 7.949598E-6 | 8.280055E-6 | 2.1827832E-4 | 26.361938 | 2.1E-4 | 3.4069257E-5 | 3.548558E-5 | 2.854767E-4 | 8.044866 | 2.5E-4 | 4.1471425E-4 | 4.3197096E-4 | 7.41837E-4 | 1.7173308 | 3.1E-4 | 0.0041394117 | 0.0043132454 | 0.0046716924 | 1.0831038 | 3.6E-4 |
| 6.1 | 7.949598E-6 | 8.280055E-6 | 2.1827832E-4 | 26.361938 | 2.1E-4 | 3.4069257E-5 | 3.548558E-5 | 2.854767E-4 | 8.044866 | 2.5E-4 | 4.1471425E-4 | 4.3197096E-4 | 7.41837E-4 | 1.7173308 | 3.1E-4 | 0.0041394117 | 0.0043132454 | 0.0046716924 | 1.0831038 | 3.6E-4 |
| 6.2 | 7.949598E-6 | 8.280055E-6 | 2.1827832E-4 | 26.361938 | 2.1E-4 | 3.4069257E-5 | 3.548558E-5 | 2.854767E-4 | 8.044866 | 2.5E-4 | 4.1471425E-4 | 4.3197096E-4 | 7.41837E-4 | 1.7173308 | 3.1E-4 | 0.0041394117 | 0.0043132454 | 0.0046716924 | 1.0831038 | 3.6E-4 |
| 6.3 | 7.949598E-6 | 8.280055E-6 | 2.1827832E-4 | 26.361938 | 2.1E-4 | 3.4069257E-5 | 3.548558E-5 | 2.854767E-4 | 8.044866 | 2.5E-4 | 4.1471425E-4 | 4.3197096E-4 | 7.41837E-4 | 1.7173308 | 3.1E-4 | 0.0041394117 | 0.0043132454 | 0.0046716924 | 1.0831038 | 3.6E-4 |
| 6.4 | 4.462132E-6 | 4.625292E-6 | 6.462501E-5 | 13.972094 | 6.0E-5 | 1.9123283E-5 | 1.9822579E-5 | 8.9821195E-5 | 4.5312567 | 7.0E-5 | 2.328011E-4 | 2.4132214E-4 | 3.2130282E-4 | 1.3314271 | 8.0E-5 | 0.0023255737 | 0.002411479 | 0.002501262 | 1.0372314 | 9.0E-5 |
| 6.5 | 4.462132E-6 | 4.625292E-6 | 6.462501E-5 | 13.972094 | 6.0E-5 | 1.9123283E-5 | 1.9822579E-5 | 8.9821195E-5 | 4.5312567 | 7.0E-5 | 2.328011E-4 | 2.4132214E-4 | 3.2130282E-4 | 1.3314271 | 8.0E-5 | 0.0023255737 | 0.002411479 | 0.002501262 | 1.0372314 | 9.0E-5 |
| 6.6 | 4.074213E-6 | 4.219267E-6 | 5.4219057E-5 | 12.850349 | 5.0E-5 | 1.7460794E-5 | 1.8082497E-5 | 7.8081415E-5 | 4.3180656 | 6.0E-5 | 2.1256444E-4 | 2.2014095E-4 | 2.9012555E-4 | 1.317908 | 7.0E-5 | 0.0021236122 | 0.0022000915 | 0.0022699374 | 1.0317469 | 7.0E-5 |
| 6.7 | 4.074213E-6 | 4.219267E-6 | 5.4219057E-5 | 12.850349 | 5.0E-5 | 1.7460794E-5 | 1.8082497E-5 | 7.8081415E-5 | 4.3180656 | 6.0E-5 | 2.1256444E-4 | 2.2014095E-4 | 2.9012555E-4 | 1.317908 | 7.0E-5 | 0.0021236122 | 0.0022000915 | 0.0022699374 | 1.0317469 | 7.0E-5 |
| 6.8 | 1.6159543E-6 | 1.6507872E-6 | 1.1650771E-5 | 7.057706 | 1.0E-5 | 6.9255E-6 | 7.074786E-6 | 2.7074644E-5 | 3.8269205 | 2.0E-5 | 8.43147E-5 | 8.613267E-5 | 1.06130945E-4 | 1.2321799 | 2.0E-5 | 8.4282714E-4 | 8.610471E-4 | 8.810299E-4 | 1.0232075 | 2.0E-5 |
| 6.9 | 1.3952654E-6 | 1.4256776E-6 | 1.1425664E-5 | 8.014198 | 1.0E-5 | 5.9796953E-6 | 6.1100354E-6 | 2.6109914E-5 | 4.2732835 | 2.0E-5 | 7.280036E-5 | 7.438763E-5 | 9.4386145E-5 | 1.2688419 | 2.0E-5 | 7.2776515E-4 | 7.4367534E-4 | 7.636605E-4 | 1.0268735 | 2.0E-5 |
| 7.0 | 1.1619308E-6 | 1.1872777E-6 | 1.1187266E-5 | 9.422619 | 1.0E-5 | 4.979694E-6 | 5.088326E-6 | 2.5088224E-5 | 4.930546 | 2.0E-5 | 6.0626087E-5 | 6.194905E-5 | 8.194781E-5 | 1.3228259 | 2.0E-5 | 6.060955E-4 | 6.193615E-4 | 6.3934916E-4 | 1.0322713 | 2.0E-5 |
| 7.1 | 7.8723247E-7 | 8.0492674E-7 | 1.0804919E-5 | 13.423481 | 1.0E-5 | 3.373849E-6 | 3.4496832E-6 | 2.3449615E-5 | 6.7976136 | 2.0E-5 | 4.107584E-5 | 4.199939E-5 | 6.199855E-5 | 1.4761775 | 2.0E-5 | 4.1068246E-4 | 4.199444E-4 | 4.39936E-4 | 1.0476054 | 2.0E-5 |
West Tahoe
(top)
| 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Year | 10 Year |
|---|
 |  |  |  |
| Magnitude | 1 wk TI Prob | 1 wk TD Prob | 1 wk ETAS Prob | 1 wk ETAS/TD Gain | 1 wk ETAS Triggered Only | 1 mo TI Prob | 1 mo TD Prob | 1 mo ETAS Prob | 1 mo ETAS/TD Gain | 1 mo ETAS Triggered Only | 1 yr TI Prob | 1 yr TD Prob | 1 yr ETAS Prob | 1 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 1 yr ETAS Triggered Only | 10 yr TI Prob | 10 yr TD Prob | 10 yr ETAS Prob | 10 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 10 yr ETAS Triggered Only |
|---|
| 6.0 | 1.952444E-5 | 2.1206122E-5 | 1.11204216E-4 | 5.2439675 | 9.0E-5 | 8.367348E-5 | 9.088052E-5 | 1.9087143E-4 | 2.1002457 | 1.0E-4 | 0.0010182485 | 0.0011059636 | 0.0012358199 | 1.1174146 | 1.3E-4 | 0.010135954 | 0.011010095 | 0.011148553 | 1.0125756 | 1.4E-4 |
| 6.1 | 1.952444E-5 | 2.1206122E-5 | 1.11204216E-4 | 5.2439675 | 9.0E-5 | 8.367348E-5 | 9.088052E-5 | 1.9087143E-4 | 2.1002457 | 1.0E-4 | 0.0010182485 | 0.0011059636 | 0.0012358199 | 1.1174146 | 1.3E-4 | 0.010135954 | 0.011010095 | 0.011148553 | 1.0125756 | 1.4E-4 |
| 6.2 | 1.952444E-5 | 2.1206122E-5 | 1.11204216E-4 | 5.2439675 | 9.0E-5 | 8.367348E-5 | 9.088052E-5 | 1.9087143E-4 | 2.1002457 | 1.0E-4 | 0.0010182485 | 0.0011059636 | 0.0012358199 | 1.1174146 | 1.3E-4 | 0.010135954 | 0.011010095 | 0.011148553 | 1.0125756 | 1.4E-4 |
| 6.3 | 1.952444E-5 | 2.1206122E-5 | 1.11204216E-4 | 5.2439675 | 9.0E-5 | 8.367348E-5 | 9.088052E-5 | 1.9087143E-4 | 2.1002457 | 1.0E-4 | 0.0010182485 | 0.0011059636 | 0.0012358199 | 1.1174146 | 1.3E-4 | 0.010135954 | 0.011010095 | 0.011148553 | 1.0125756 | 1.4E-4 |
| 6.4 | 1.952444E-5 | 2.1206122E-5 | 1.11204216E-4 | 5.2439675 | 9.0E-5 | 8.367348E-5 | 9.088052E-5 | 1.9087143E-4 | 2.1002457 | 1.0E-4 | 0.0010182485 | 0.0011059636 | 0.0012358199 | 1.1174146 | 1.3E-4 | 0.010135954 | 0.011010095 | 0.011148553 | 1.0125756 | 1.4E-4 |
| 6.5 | 1.2685271E-5 | 1.3704452E-5 | 1.0370322E-4 | 7.567119 | 9.0E-5 | 5.4364315E-5 | 5.8732137E-5 | 1.5872627E-4 | 2.7025454 | 1.0E-4 | 6.616845E-4 | 7.1484566E-4 | 8.447527E-4 | 1.1817274 | 1.3E-4 | 0.0065971776 | 0.0071271155 | 0.0072661177 | 1.0195032 | 1.4E-4 |
| 6.6 | 1.2685271E-5 | 1.3704452E-5 | 1.0370322E-4 | 7.567119 | 9.0E-5 | 5.4364315E-5 | 5.8732137E-5 | 1.5872627E-4 | 2.7025454 | 1.0E-4 | 6.616845E-4 | 7.1484566E-4 | 8.447527E-4 | 1.1817274 | 1.3E-4 | 0.0065971776 | 0.0071271155 | 0.0072661177 | 1.0195032 | 1.4E-4 |
| 6.7 | 9.117886E-6 | 9.819327E-6 | 9.981844E-5 | 10.165508 | 9.0E-5 | 3.9076072E-5 | 4.208219E-5 | 1.4207799E-4 | 3.376202 | 1.0E-4 | 4.756473E-4 | 5.122374E-4 | 6.4217084E-4 | 1.2536585 | 1.3E-4 | 0.0047463053 | 0.0051112864 | 0.005250571 | 1.0272504 | 1.4E-4 |
| 6.8 | 8.786828E-6 | 9.46706E-6 | 9.946621E-5 | 10.506557 | 9.0E-5 | 3.7657293E-5 | 4.0572522E-5 | 1.4056846E-4 | 3.4646223 | 1.0E-4 | 4.5838108E-4 | 4.938656E-4 | 6.238014E-4 | 1.2630996 | 1.3E-4 | 0.0045743673 | 0.004928383 | 0.005067693 | 1.0282669 | 1.4E-4 |
| 6.9 | 6.7562123E-6 | 7.2707558E-6 | 9.72701E-5 | 13.378265 | 9.0E-5 | 2.8954875E-5 | 3.1160038E-5 | 1.3115692E-4 | 4.209139 | 1.0E-4 | 3.5246857E-4 | 3.7931217E-4 | 5.092629E-4 | 1.3425956 | 1.3E-4 | 0.0035191004 | 0.0037871206 | 0.00392659 | 1.0368274 | 1.4E-4 |
| 7.0 | 5.1792854E-6 | 5.5726478E-6 | 8.55722E-5 | 15.355753 | 8.0E-5 | 2.2196748E-5 | 2.388258E-5 | 1.1388043E-4 | 4.7683473 | 9.0E-5 | 2.702119E-4 | 2.9073542E-4 | 3.9070635E-4 | 1.3438554 | 1.0E-4 | 0.0026988357 | 0.0029039264 | 0.003013607 | 1.0377698 | 1.1E-4 |
| 7.1 | 4.090765E-6 | 4.4016183E-6 | 7.440131E-5 | 16.903172 | 7.0E-5 | 1.7531731E-5 | 1.886396E-5 | 9.886245E-5 | 5.240811 | 8.0E-5 | 2.134279E-4 | 2.2964792E-4 | 3.1962726E-4 | 1.3918142 | 9.0E-5 | 0.0021322304 | 0.0022944412 | 0.0023942117 | 1.0434836 | 1.0E-4 |
| 7.2 | 2.2356758E-6 | 2.4046478E-6 | 4.240455E-5 | 17.634413 | 4.0E-5 | 9.581432E-6 | 1.0305604E-5 | 5.0305192E-5 | 4.881344 | 4.0E-5 | 1.1664769E-4 | 1.2546539E-4 | 1.6546037E-4 | 1.318773 | 4.0E-5 | 0.0011658648 | 0.0012541318 | 0.0013040691 | 1.0398182 | 5.0E-5 |
Mohawk Valley 2011 CFM
(top)
| 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Year | 10 Year |
|---|
 |  |  |  |
| Magnitude | 1 wk TI Prob | 1 wk TD Prob | 1 wk ETAS Prob | 1 wk ETAS/TD Gain | 1 wk ETAS Triggered Only | 1 mo TI Prob | 1 mo TD Prob | 1 mo ETAS Prob | 1 mo ETAS/TD Gain | 1 mo ETAS Triggered Only | 1 yr TI Prob | 1 yr TD Prob | 1 yr ETAS Prob | 1 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 1 yr ETAS Triggered Only | 10 yr TI Prob | 10 yr TD Prob | 10 yr ETAS Prob | 10 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 10 yr ETAS Triggered Only |
|---|
| 6.0 | 2.5425423E-5 | 2.7675525E-5 | 5.7674693E-5 | 2.0839603 | 3.0E-5 | 1.0896155E-4 | 1.18604614E-4 | 1.4860106E-4 | 1.2529112 | 3.0E-5 | 0.0013257994 | 0.0014431634 | 0.0014731202 | 1.0207577 | 3.0E-5 | 0.013179175 | 0.014348822 | 0.0143981045 | 1.0034347 | 5.0E-5 |
| 6.1 | 2.5425423E-5 | 2.7675525E-5 | 5.7674693E-5 | 2.0839603 | 3.0E-5 | 1.0896155E-4 | 1.18604614E-4 | 1.4860106E-4 | 1.2529112 | 3.0E-5 | 0.0013257994 | 0.0014431634 | 0.0014731202 | 1.0207577 | 3.0E-5 | 0.013179175 | 0.014348822 | 0.0143981045 | 1.0034347 | 5.0E-5 |
| 6.2 | 2.5425423E-5 | 2.7675525E-5 | 5.7674693E-5 | 2.0839603 | 3.0E-5 | 1.0896155E-4 | 1.18604614E-4 | 1.4860106E-4 | 1.2529112 | 3.0E-5 | 0.0013257994 | 0.0014431634 | 0.0014731202 | 1.0207577 | 3.0E-5 | 0.013179175 | 0.014348822 | 0.0143981045 | 1.0034347 | 5.0E-5 |
| 6.3 | 2.5425423E-5 | 2.7675525E-5 | 5.7674693E-5 | 2.0839603 | 3.0E-5 | 1.0896155E-4 | 1.18604614E-4 | 1.4860106E-4 | 1.2529112 | 3.0E-5 | 0.0013257994 | 0.0014431634 | 0.0014731202 | 1.0207577 | 3.0E-5 | 0.013179175 | 0.014348822 | 0.0143981045 | 1.0034347 | 5.0E-5 |
| 6.4 | 1.1812642E-5 | 1.2776665E-5 | 1.2776665E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 5.0624625E-5 | 5.475607E-5 | 5.475607E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 6.161805E-4 | 6.66466E-4 | 6.66466E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0061447476 | 0.0066461493 | 0.006656083 | 1.0014946 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.5 | 1.1812642E-5 | 1.2776665E-5 | 1.2776665E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 5.0624625E-5 | 5.475607E-5 | 5.475607E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 6.161805E-4 | 6.66466E-4 | 6.66466E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0061447476 | 0.0066461493 | 0.006656083 | 1.0014946 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.6 | 9.34204E-6 | 1.0095401E-5 | 1.0095401E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.0036703E-5 | 4.3265354E-5 | 4.3265354E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.873378E-4 | 5.2664016E-4 | 5.2664016E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0048627043 | 0.005255092 | 0.005255092 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 6.7 | 7.0661854E-6 | 7.631863E-6 | 7.631863E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.02833E-5 | 3.2707627E-5 | 3.2707627E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.686368E-4 | 3.981517E-4 | 3.981517E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0036802588 | 0.0039752806 | 0.0039752806 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 6.8 | 4.806676E-6 | 5.1924426E-6 | 5.1924426E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.0599877E-5 | 2.2253173E-5 | 2.2253173E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.507746E-4 | 2.7090506E-4 | 2.7090506E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0025049183 | 0.0027063761 | 0.0027063761 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 6.9 | 3.4163209E-6 | 3.6926435E-6 | 3.6926435E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.4641293E-5 | 1.582555E-5 | 1.582555E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.7824316E-4 | 1.9266446E-4 | 1.9266446E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0017810026 | 0.0019255073 | 0.0019255073 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 7.0 | 2.5271734E-6 | 2.7338162E-6 | 2.7338162E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0830699E-5 | 1.171633E-5 | 1.171633E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.3185578E-4 | 1.4264192E-4 | 1.4264192E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0013177756 | 0.0014259883 | 0.0014259883 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
Last Chance
(top)
| 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Year | 10 Year |
|---|
 |  |  |  |
| Magnitude | 1 wk TI Prob | 1 wk TD Prob | 1 wk ETAS Prob | 1 wk ETAS/TD Gain | 1 wk ETAS Triggered Only | 1 mo TI Prob | 1 mo TD Prob | 1 mo ETAS Prob | 1 mo ETAS/TD Gain | 1 mo ETAS Triggered Only | 1 yr TI Prob | 1 yr TD Prob | 1 yr ETAS Prob | 1 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 1 yr ETAS Triggered Only | 10 yr TI Prob | 10 yr TD Prob | 10 yr ETAS Prob | 10 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 10 yr ETAS Triggered Only |
|---|
| 6.0 | 3.23929E-6 | 3.3059853E-6 | 1.3305952E-5 | 4.024807 | 1.0E-5 | 1.3882597E-5 | 1.4168446E-5 | 3.4168163E-5 | 2.4115674 | 2.0E-5 | 1.6900752E-4 | 1.7248966E-4 | 1.924862E-4 | 1.115929 | 2.0E-5 | 0.0016887904 | 0.0017238016 | 0.0017437672 | 1.0115823 | 2.0E-5 |
| 6.1 | 3.23929E-6 | 3.3059853E-6 | 1.3305952E-5 | 4.024807 | 1.0E-5 | 1.3882597E-5 | 1.4168446E-5 | 3.4168163E-5 | 2.4115674 | 2.0E-5 | 1.6900752E-4 | 1.7248966E-4 | 1.924862E-4 | 1.115929 | 2.0E-5 | 0.0016887904 | 0.0017238016 | 0.0017437672 | 1.0115823 | 2.0E-5 |
| 6.2 | 3.23929E-6 | 3.3059853E-6 | 1.3305952E-5 | 4.024807 | 1.0E-5 | 1.3882597E-5 | 1.4168446E-5 | 3.4168163E-5 | 2.4115674 | 2.0E-5 | 1.6900752E-4 | 1.7248966E-4 | 1.924862E-4 | 1.115929 | 2.0E-5 | 0.0016887904 | 0.0017238016 | 0.0017437672 | 1.0115823 | 2.0E-5 |
| 6.3 | 3.23929E-6 | 3.3059853E-6 | 1.3305952E-5 | 4.024807 | 1.0E-5 | 1.3882597E-5 | 1.4168446E-5 | 3.4168163E-5 | 2.4115674 | 2.0E-5 | 1.6900752E-4 | 1.7248966E-4 | 1.924862E-4 | 1.115929 | 2.0E-5 | 0.0016887904 | 0.0017238016 | 0.0017437672 | 1.0115823 | 2.0E-5 |
| 6.4 | 3.23929E-6 | 3.3059853E-6 | 1.3305952E-5 | 4.024807 | 1.0E-5 | 1.3882597E-5 | 1.4168446E-5 | 3.4168163E-5 | 2.4115674 | 2.0E-5 | 1.6900752E-4 | 1.7248966E-4 | 1.924862E-4 | 1.115929 | 2.0E-5 | 0.0016887904 | 0.0017238016 | 0.0017437672 | 1.0115823 | 2.0E-5 |
| 6.5 | 3.23929E-6 | 3.3059853E-6 | 1.3305952E-5 | 4.024807 | 1.0E-5 | 1.3882597E-5 | 1.4168446E-5 | 3.4168163E-5 | 2.4115674 | 2.0E-5 | 1.6900752E-4 | 1.7248966E-4 | 1.924862E-4 | 1.115929 | 2.0E-5 | 0.0016887904 | 0.0017238016 | 0.0017437672 | 1.0115823 | 2.0E-5 |
| 6.6 | 3.23929E-6 | 3.3059853E-6 | 1.3305952E-5 | 4.024807 | 1.0E-5 | 1.3882597E-5 | 1.4168446E-5 | 3.4168163E-5 | 2.4115674 | 2.0E-5 | 1.6900752E-4 | 1.7248966E-4 | 1.924862E-4 | 1.115929 | 2.0E-5 | 0.0016887904 | 0.0017238016 | 0.0017437672 | 1.0115823 | 2.0E-5 |
| 6.7 | 1.9639244E-6 | 2.0049802E-6 | 1.200496E-5 | 5.987571 | 1.0E-5 | 8.416792E-6 | 8.592748E-6 | 2.8592576E-5 | 3.3275244 | 2.0E-5 | 1.02469625E-4 | 1.04612314E-4 | 1.2461022E-4 | 1.1911621 | 2.0E-5 | 0.0010242239 | 0.0010456932 | 0.0010656723 | 1.019106 | 2.0E-5 |
| 6.8 | 1.8490592E-6 | 1.8879906E-6 | 1.1887972E-5 | 6.2966266 | 1.0E-5 | 7.924516E-6 | 8.091367E-6 | 2.8091205E-5 | 3.4717503 | 2.0E-5 | 9.64767E-5 | 9.850856E-5 | 1.18506585E-4 | 1.203008 | 2.0E-5 | 9.643483E-4 | 9.847101E-4 | 0.0010046904 | 1.0202905 | 2.0E-5 |
| 6.9 | 1.6283703E-6 | 1.662881E-6 | 1.1662864E-5 | 7.0136495 | 1.0E-5 | 6.9787116E-6 | 7.1266168E-6 | 2.7126474E-5 | 3.8063607 | 2.0E-5 | 8.49625E-5 | 8.676366E-5 | 1.0676193E-4 | 1.2304913 | 2.0E-5 | 8.4930024E-4 | 8.673528E-4 | 8.8733545E-4 | 1.0230386 | 2.0E-5 |
| 7.0 | 1.1619308E-6 | 1.1872777E-6 | 1.1187266E-5 | 9.422619 | 1.0E-5 | 4.979694E-6 | 5.088326E-6 | 2.5088224E-5 | 4.930546 | 2.0E-5 | 6.0626087E-5 | 6.194905E-5 | 8.194781E-5 | 1.3228259 | 2.0E-5 | 6.060955E-4 | 6.193615E-4 | 6.3934916E-4 | 1.0322713 | 2.0E-5 |
| 7.1 | 7.8723247E-7 | 8.0492674E-7 | 1.0804919E-5 | 13.423481 | 1.0E-5 | 3.373849E-6 | 3.4496832E-6 | 2.3449615E-5 | 6.7976136 | 2.0E-5 | 4.107584E-5 | 4.199939E-5 | 6.199855E-5 | 1.4761775 | 2.0E-5 | 4.1068246E-4 | 4.199444E-4 | 4.39936E-4 | 1.0476054 | 2.0E-5 |
North Tahoe 2011 CFM
(top)
| 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Year | 10 Year |
|---|
 |  |  |  |
| Magnitude | 1 wk TI Prob | 1 wk TD Prob | 1 wk ETAS Prob | 1 wk ETAS/TD Gain | 1 wk ETAS Triggered Only | 1 mo TI Prob | 1 mo TD Prob | 1 mo ETAS Prob | 1 mo ETAS/TD Gain | 1 mo ETAS Triggered Only | 1 yr TI Prob | 1 yr TD Prob | 1 yr ETAS Prob | 1 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 1 yr ETAS Triggered Only | 10 yr TI Prob | 10 yr TD Prob | 10 yr ETAS Prob | 10 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 10 yr ETAS Triggered Only |
|---|
| 6.0 | 2.150391E-5 | 2.21965E-5 | 3.219628E-5 | 1.4505115 | 1.0E-5 | 9.215636E-5 | 9.51255E-5 | 1.0512455E-4 | 1.1051143 | 1.0E-5 | 0.0011214261 | 0.0011577341 | 0.0011677225 | 1.0086275 | 1.0E-5 | 0.011157839 | 0.011536337 | 0.011556108 | 1.0017136 | 2.0E-5 |
| 6.1 | 2.150391E-5 | 2.21965E-5 | 3.219628E-5 | 1.4505115 | 1.0E-5 | 9.215636E-5 | 9.51255E-5 | 1.0512455E-4 | 1.1051143 | 1.0E-5 | 0.0011214261 | 0.0011577341 | 0.0011677225 | 1.0086275 | 1.0E-5 | 0.011157839 | 0.011536337 | 0.011556108 | 1.0017136 | 2.0E-5 |
| 6.2 | 2.150391E-5 | 2.21965E-5 | 3.219628E-5 | 1.4505115 | 1.0E-5 | 9.215636E-5 | 9.51255E-5 | 1.0512455E-4 | 1.1051143 | 1.0E-5 | 0.0011214261 | 0.0011577341 | 0.0011677225 | 1.0086275 | 1.0E-5 | 0.011157839 | 0.011536337 | 0.011556108 | 1.0017136 | 2.0E-5 |
| 6.3 | 2.150391E-5 | 2.21965E-5 | 3.219628E-5 | 1.4505115 | 1.0E-5 | 9.215636E-5 | 9.51255E-5 | 1.0512455E-4 | 1.1051143 | 1.0E-5 | 0.0011214261 | 0.0011577341 | 0.0011677225 | 1.0086275 | 1.0E-5 | 0.011157839 | 0.011536337 | 0.011556108 | 1.0017136 | 2.0E-5 |
| 6.4 | 7.3563056E-6 | 6.4541123E-6 | 6.4541123E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.1526644E-5 | 2.766036E-5 | 2.766036E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.8376928E-4 | 3.367435E-4 | 3.367435E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.003831072 | 0.0033653372 | 0.0033653372 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 6.5 | 7.3563056E-6 | 6.4541123E-6 | 6.4541123E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.1526644E-5 | 2.766036E-5 | 2.766036E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.8376928E-4 | 3.367435E-4 | 3.367435E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.003831072 | 0.0033653372 | 0.0033653372 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 6.6 | 6.8508816E-6 | 5.8925E-6 | 5.8925E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.936059E-5 | 2.5253501E-5 | 2.5253501E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.5740656E-4 | 3.0744844E-4 | 3.0744844E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0035683226 | 0.0030732164 | 0.0030732164 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 6.7 | 1.8511148E-6 | 6.112571E-7 | 6.112571E-7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 7.933325E-6 | 2.6196733E-6 | 2.6196733E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 9.658395E-5 | 3.1894524E-5 | 3.1894524E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 9.6541987E-4 | 3.189452E-4 | 3.189452E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
Almanor 2011 CFM
(top)
| 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Year | 10 Year |
|---|
 |  |  |  |
| Magnitude | 1 wk TI Prob | 1 wk TD Prob | 1 wk ETAS Prob | 1 wk ETAS/TD Gain | 1 wk ETAS Triggered Only | 1 mo TI Prob | 1 mo TD Prob | 1 mo ETAS Prob | 1 mo ETAS/TD Gain | 1 mo ETAS Triggered Only | 1 yr TI Prob | 1 yr TD Prob | 1 yr ETAS Prob | 1 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 1 yr ETAS Triggered Only | 10 yr TI Prob | 10 yr TD Prob | 10 yr ETAS Prob | 10 yr ETAS/TD Gain | 10 yr ETAS Triggered Only |
|---|
| 6.0 | 6.1479834E-5 | 8.3623454E-5 | 9.362262E-5 | 1.1195737 | 1.0E-5 | 2.6345838E-4 | 3.583417E-4 | 3.683381E-4 | 1.0278963 | 1.0E-5 | 0.0032028882 | 0.004354737 | 0.0043646935 | 1.0022863 | 1.0E-5 | 0.031571172 | 0.042759914 | 0.042769484 | 1.0002239 | 1.0E-5 |
| 6.1 | 4.4387216E-5 | 6.0015664E-5 | 6.0015664E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.9021705E-4 | 2.571876E-4 | 2.571876E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0023134327 | 0.003127247 | 0.003127247 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.022894967 | 0.030879613 | 0.030879613 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 6.2 | 4.4387216E-5 | 6.0015664E-5 | 6.0015664E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.9021705E-4 | 2.571876E-4 | 2.571876E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0023134327 | 0.003127247 | 0.003127247 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.022894967 | 0.030879613 | 0.030879613 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 6.3 | 2.9523822E-5 | 3.970836E-5 | 3.970836E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.2652454E-4 | 1.7017031E-4 | 1.7017031E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0015393476 | 0.0020702032 | 0.0020702032 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.015287281 | 0.020542845 | 0.020542845 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 6.4 | 2.0512744E-5 | 2.75418E-5 | 2.75418E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 8.79088E-5 | 1.18033175E-4 | 1.18033175E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.001069764 | 0.001436421 | 0.001436421 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.010646289 | 0.014301363 | 0.014301363 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 6.5 | 1.6750226E-5 | 2.2480888E-5 | 2.2480888E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 7.178471E-5 | 9.6345466E-5 | 9.6345466E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 8.7362836E-4 | 0.0011726924 | 0.0011726924 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.008702018 | 0.011695641 | 0.011695641 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 6.6 | 1.4745303E-5 | 1.9786487E-5 | 1.9786487E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 6.319262E-5 | 8.4798805E-5 | 8.4798805E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 7.690986E-4 | 0.0010322615 | 0.0010322615 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0076644225 | 0.010306081 | 0.010306081 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 6.7 | 9.951145E-7 | 1.1641141E-6 | 1.1641141E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 4.26477E-6 | 4.989052E-6 | 4.989052E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 5.1922336E-5 | 6.074019E-5 | 6.074019E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 5.1910203E-4 | 6.0725317E-4 | 6.0725317E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 6.8 | 5.866312E-7 | 6.8640134E-7 | 6.8640134E-7 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.5141312E-6 | 2.9417174E-6 | 2.9417174E-6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0609117E-5 | 3.5814952E-5 | 3.5814952E-5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.06049E-4 | 3.581047E-4 | 3.581047E-4 | 1.0 | 0.0 |