Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, MaxPtSrcM=6, Scale Factor 1.29, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog, RedoLarger Results

Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, MaxPtSrcM=6, Scale Factor 1.29, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog, RedoLarger
Num Simulations5000
Start Time2012/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1325376000000
Duration500 Years
Includes Spontaneous?true
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Trigger Ruptures60366 Trigger Ruptures
First: M7.3 at 1852/01/05 04:40:39 UTC
Last: M3.2 at 2011/12/31 19:14:44 UTC
Largest: M7.9 at 1857/01/09 16:25:39 UTC
Config Generated Withu3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 5000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --max-point-src-mag 6 --scale-factor 1.29 --name-add RedoLarger --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec

Table Of Contents

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous

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Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥58.6527.39810.6948.5128.0748.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.16.8405.8428.4326.7286.5186.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.25.4024.6026.6405.3165.1505.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.34.2603.6305.2344.1944.0704.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.43.3532.8584.1063.3023.2303.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.52.6322.2383.2122.5962.4962.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.62.0601.7562.4982.0362.0102.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.71.6051.3681.9401.5881.5221.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.81.2441.0621.4961.2321.2601.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.90.9460.8081.1260.9380.9481.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥60.7470.6380.8840.7420.7200.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.10.5750.4880.6780.5720.5720.6601.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.20.4530.3820.5320.4520.4480.5291.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.30.3570.3000.4200.3560.3640.4201.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.40.2790.2320.3320.2780.2800.3321.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.50.2150.1760.2580.2160.2180.2601.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.60.1680.1340.2040.1680.1640.2051.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.70.1300.1020.1580.1300.1280.1601.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.80.1020.0780.1280.1020.1020.1271.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.90.0800.0580.1020.0800.0800.1001.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥70.0620.0440.0820.0620.0640.0781.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.10.0470.0320.0640.0460.0460.0601.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.20.0360.0240.0480.0360.0340.0451.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.30.0280.0180.0400.0280.0280.0351.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.40.0220.0120.0320.0220.0200.0271.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.50.0158.00E-30.0240.0160.0140.0191.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.60.0126.00E-30.0180.0120.0120.0141.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.78.14E-34.00E-30.0148.00E-38.00E-39.58E-31.000 (99.96%)[99.84% 99.99%]1.000 (99.96%)
M≥7.85.58E-32.00E-30.0106.00E-36.00E-36.19E-30.993 (99.32%)[99.04% 99.52%]0.993 (99.32%)
M≥7.93.10E-30.0006.00E-32.00E-32.00E-33.51E-30.891 (89.12%)[88.22% 89.96%]0.891 (89.12%)
M≥81.64E-30.0004.00E-32.00E-32.00E-32.03E-30.625 (62.54%)[61.18% 63.88%]0.625 (62.54%)
M≥8.17.78E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-30.345 (34.52%)[33.20% 35.86%]0.345 (34.52%)
M≥8.23.24E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0004.48E-40.153 (15.32%)[14.34% 16.36%]0.153 (15.32%)
M≥8.37.16E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-40.036 (3.56%)[3.07% 4.12%]0.036 (3.56%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)

Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

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Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥50.3440.1440.9740.2740.2148.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.995 (99.54%)0.094
M≥5.10.2720.1120.7640.2180.1826.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.995 (99.54%)0.075
M≥5.20.2150.0860.6020.1720.1245.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.995 (99.54%)0.059
M≥5.30.1690.0660.4780.1360.1104.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.995 (99.54%)0.047
M≥5.40.1330.0500.3760.1080.0903.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.995 (99.54%)0.038
M≥5.50.1050.0380.2900.0840.0722.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.995 (99.54%)0.030
M≥5.60.0820.0280.2240.0680.0502.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.995 (99.54%)0.024
M≥5.70.0640.0220.1720.0520.0461.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.995 (99.54%)0.019
M≥5.80.0490.0160.1320.0420.0281.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.995 (99.54%)0.016
M≥5.90.0370.0100.0980.0320.0261.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.995 (99.46%)0.012
M≥60.0298.00E-30.0760.0240.0200.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.993 (99.34%)9.85E-3
M≥6.10.0224.00E-30.0560.0180.0180.6600.999 (99.94%)[99.81% 99.98%]0.987 (98.72%)7.65E-3
M≥6.20.0184.00E-30.0460.0160.0120.5290.996 (99.58%)[99.35% 99.73%]0.984 (98.42%)6.36E-3
M≥6.30.0142.00E-30.0380.0120.0100.4200.990 (99.00%)[98.67% 99.25%]0.974 (97.44%)5.24E-3
M≥6.40.0112.00E-30.0280.0108.00E-30.3320.979 (97.92%)[97.48% 98.29%]0.956 (95.60%)4.13E-3
M≥6.58.51E-30.0000.0248.00E-34.00E-30.2600.959 (95.94%)[95.35% 96.46%]0.925 (92.52%)3.25E-3
M≥6.66.65E-30.0000.0206.00E-34.00E-30.2050.921 (92.12%)[91.33% 92.84%]0.886 (88.64%)2.57E-3
M≥6.75.16E-30.0000.0164.00E-32.00E-30.1600.866 (86.56%)[85.58% 87.49%]0.830 (83.02%)2.02E-3
M≥6.84.13E-30.0000.0124.00E-32.00E-30.1270.806 (80.62%)[79.49% 81.70%]0.771 (77.14%)1.65E-3
M≥6.93.33E-30.0000.0102.00E-32.00E-30.1000.743 (74.30%)[73.06% 75.50%]0.712 (71.24%)1.33E-3
M≥72.72E-30.0000.0102.00E-30.0000.0780.675 (67.50%)[66.18% 68.79%]0.651 (65.10%)1.09E-3
M≥7.12.06E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0600.584 (58.44%)[57.06% 59.81%]0.567 (56.72%)8.34E-4
M≥7.21.63E-30.0006.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0450.504 (50.42%)[49.02% 51.82%]0.494 (49.44%)6.85E-4
M≥7.31.34E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0350.442 (44.16%)[42.78% 45.55%]0.437 (43.66%)5.63E-4
M≥7.41.06E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0270.376 (37.58%)[36.24% 38.94%]0.374 (37.38%)4.49E-4
M≥7.57.70E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0190.294 (29.44%)[28.18% 30.73%]0.294 (29.36%)3.32E-4
M≥7.66.22E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0140.247 (24.66%)[23.48% 25.88%]0.246 (24.64%)2.72E-4
M≥7.74.62E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0009.58E-30.192 (19.20%)[18.12% 20.33%]0.192 (19.18%)2.04E-4
M≥7.83.27E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0006.19E-30.142 (14.24%)[13.29% 15.25%]0.142 (14.24%)1.42E-4
M≥7.91.79E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0003.51E-30.083 (8.28%)[7.54% 9.09%]0.083 (8.28%)7.48E-5
M≥88.80E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0002.03E-30.042 (4.24%)[3.71% 4.85%]0.042 (4.24%)3.80E-5
M≥8.14.12E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-30.020 (2.00%)[1.64% 2.44%]0.020 (2.00%)1.96E-5
M≥8.21.24E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.48E-45.80E-3 (0.58%)[0.40% 0.84%]5.80E-3 (0.58%)6.80E-6
M≥8.32.80E-60.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-41.40E-3 (0.14%)[0.06% 0.30%]1.40E-3 (0.14%)1.20E-6
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Long Term Rate Variability

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162 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.6565418.3827167.99382731.50570836.74691347.44444479.75308612.333333
5.16.84419446.62962966.58641961.18397475.32716045.8827167.70987659.716049
5.25.4049925.2407415.02469160.93019684.1913584.6481486.08641967.6666665
5.34.26245164.13580233.95061730.727487563.30246933.66049394.80246936.012346
5.43.35514623.26543213.01234580.566404342.58641982.8827163.77777774.7098765
5.52.6335612.56172852.56172850.439778752.02469132.26543212.97530873.6790123
5.62.06114822.01234582.00.337398771.58024691.77160492.32716062.851852
5.71.6062511.56790131.50.256992671.22839511.38271611.81481482.2037036
5.81.24456381.22222221.1913580.19480430.95061731.06790131.40740741.6790123
5.90.94682180.932098750.895061730.145211430.71604940.81481481.0740741.2654321
6.00.74773210.74074070.746913550.112129410.56172840.64197530.85185190.9876543
6.10.57557570.567901250.55555560.088051660.425925940.493827160.660493850.7654321
6.20.453815220.450617280.450617280.0708990540.32716050.382716060.524691340.60493827
6.30.356973260.351851850.339506180.0584397170.253086420.302469130.413580240.4814815
6.40.2793860.27777780.283950630.0484116930.191358030.23456790.32716050.38271606
6.50.21566050.216049390.209876540.0404040030.141975310.172839510.253086420.30246913
6.60.168047320.166666670.160493820.0341157470.104938270.135802460.20370370.24074075
6.70.129694660.129629630.123456790.0286886920.080246910.098765430.160493820.19135803
6.80.101980660.098765430.098765430.0245877190.0555555560.080246910.123456790.15432099
6.90.079676130.080246910.0740740750.0211574320.0432098770.0617283960.098765430.12345679
7.00.062234570.0617283960.0617283960.018303910.0308641980.0432098770.080246910.09876543
7.10.04720.0432098770.0432098770.0157367870.0185185190.0308641980.0617283960.08024691
7.20.0355938260.0370370370.0308641980.0131654830.0123456790.0246913580.0493827160.061728396
7.30.0280102880.0246913580.0246913580.01130654850.00617283960.0185185190.0370370370.049382716
7.40.0215691370.0185185190.0185185190.0097501550.00617283960.0123456790.0308641980.043209877
7.50.0153144030.0123456790.0123456790.0080352170.00.00617283960.0246913580.030864198
7.60.01151070.0123456790.0123456790.0067074170.00.00617283960.0185185190.024691358
7.70.0081362140.00617283960.00617283960.00544925830.00.00.0123456790.018518519
7.80.00558847750.00617283960.00617283960.00450562970.00.00.0123456790.012345679
7.90.00310411510.00.00.0035922450.00.00.00617283960.012345679
8.00.00164403290.00.00.00285066620.00.00.00617283960.0061728396
8.17.7160494E-40.00.00.00205882170.00.00.00.0061728396
8.23.213992E-40.00.00.0013769130.00.00.00.0061728396
8.37.242798E-50.00.06.647108E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

80 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.6589058.23757.7252.08101536.28757.087510.0513.5625
5.16.84612566.51256.06251.63690594.96255.67.962510.7375
5.25.40645655.154.9251.28656793.8754.4256.28758.4375
5.34.2636444.0753.9751.006173.053.48754.96256.65
5.43.35604243.21253.050.784169262.3752.73753.9255.2
5.52.6342872.5252.350.60887711.852.153.08754.0625
5.62.06174831.98751.8750.468452841.43751.6752.41253.15
5.71.60677921.551.51250.35780941.11251.31251.88752.425
5.81.24503671.21251.150.271509560.851.01251.46251.8625
5.90.947215440.9250.8750.203278960.63750.76251.1251.4125
6.00.748059150.73750.70.157721420.50.60.88751.1
6.10.575821640.56250.56250.124760150.36250.46250.68750.85
6.20.453981250.450.43750.101222160.2750.36250.550.675
6.30.357060820.350.33750.0839279150.21250.2750.43750.5375
6.40.279420820.2750.2750.070121760.16250.21250.350.4375
6.50.215678330.21250.20.059247820.11250.16250.2750.35
6.60.168075410.16250.150.0501599830.0750.11250.21250.275
6.70.129707080.1250.1250.0425352120.050.08750.1750.225
6.80.101989580.10.08750.0367029870.03750.06250.13750.1875
6.90.079693750.0750.0750.0317093730.0250.050.11250.15
7.00.06224250.06250.06250.027565760.01250.03750.08750.125
7.10.0472029150.050.03750.0237553570.01250.0250.0750.1
7.20.03559750.03750.0250.0201469940.00.01250.050.075
7.30.0280104170.0250.0250.0174721480.00.01250.050.0625
7.40.0215804170.0250.01250.0151347830.00.01250.03750.05
7.50.015323750.01250.01250.0126000330.00.00.0250.0375
7.60.0115170830.01250.01250.0106906070.00.00.0250.0375
7.70.0081383330.01250.00.008843950.00.00.01250.025
7.80.00559083330.00.00.00732169160.00.00.01250.025
7.90.00310250.00.00.0056420590.00.00.01250.0125
8.00.00164416670.00.00.00427868360.00.00.00.0125
8.17.691667E-40.00.00.00301075280.00.00.00.0125
8.23.2E-40.00.00.00197423410.00.00.00.0125
8.37.2083334E-50.00.09.4649126E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

28 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.66124257.8928577.3214293.34209755.56.46428610.46428616.392857
5.16.8480296.255.8214292.63196284.2857145.1071438.28571412.928572
5.25.40796664.9642864.52.06908463.3571434.06.57142910.178572
5.34.2648733.92857153.53571441.61983752.57142853.1428575.2142868.0
5.43.35698533.1071432.82142851.26480952.02.46428564.1071436.25
5.52.6349732.42857152.28571440.983500541.53571431.92857153.254.892857
5.62.06227521.92857151.85714280.75882751.17857151.52.57142853.7857144
5.71.60720751.51.39285720.58220210.892857131.14285722.02.9285715
5.81.24538311.17857151.07142850.44337530.642857130.892857131.57142852.25
5.90.947494570.892857130.82142860.33411340.46428570.67857141.21428571.7142857
6.00.74831050.714285730.67857140.26195040.357142870.50.964285731.3214285
6.10.57600040.535714270.535714270.208778320.250.392857130.751.0357143
6.20.454126060.428571430.392857130.171271180.178571430.28571430.607142870.8214286
6.30.357146230.357142870.321428570.142967180.142857150.214285720.50.6785714
6.40.279492860.250.250.120513710.0714285750.178571430.392857130.53571427
6.50.21573110.214285720.178571430.1025297340.0357142870.107142860.321428570.42857143
6.60.168113870.142857150.142857150.087394530.0357142870.0714285750.250.35714287
6.70.129747480.107142860.107142860.0746120440.00.0714285750.214285720.2857143
6.80.102009660.107142860.0714285750.064764910.00.0357142870.178571430.25
6.90.079715540.0714285750.0714285750.0563701130.00.0357142870.142857150.21428572
7.00.0622453760.0714285750.0357142870.0491494540.00.00.107142860.17857143
7.10.0472147050.0357142870.0357142870.0423845130.00.00.0714285750.14285715
7.20.035605460.0357142870.00.036171490.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.30.0280147060.0357142870.00.031566340.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.40.0215844530.00.00.0274354480.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.50.015325210.00.00.022998770.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.60.0115147060.00.00.0197095140.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.70.0081378150.00.00.0163850490.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.80.00559117650.00.00.0135502660.00.00.00.035714287
7.90.00310378150.00.00.0101983820.00.00.00.035714287
8.00.00164411760.00.00.0075103610.00.00.00.035714287
8.17.6890754E-40.00.00.00518360550.00.00.00.0
8.23.1890755E-40.00.00.00335974010.00.00.00.0
8.37.226891E-50.00.00.0016049330.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Variability Duration Dependence

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Duration Dependence Plot

Download CSV Here

Duration (years)MeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
1.08.6515637.05.013.1942781.04.012.027.0
4.08.6515637.256.257.54335983.55.011.022.75
8.08.6517457.56.55.6834024.3755.62510.7520.5
12.08.6537147.58333356.83333354.7660544.755.916666510.66666719.166666
16.08.6517457.68757.04.22682675.06.12510.62518.125
20.08.6515637.87.153.83605435.26.2510.5517.35
24.08.6589057.8756.95833353.56573825.3756.37510.516.75
28.08.66124257.8928577.3214293.34209755.56.46428610.46428616.392857
32.08.6589057.93757.281253.15769035.6256.562510.4062515.90625
36.08.6644338.07.58333353.00784835.69444476.63888910.38888915.611111
40.08.6589058.0257.22.85242925.7756.710.32515.25
44.08.6571118.0454557.3409092.72792485.86363656.7510.29545515.068182
48.08.6589058.0833337.22916652.62815935.91666656.791666510.27083314.8125
52.08.6644338.1153857.52.53668835.9807696.846153710.2514.576923
56.08.6741878.1428588.1785722.4656476.0535716.91071410.23214214.464286
60.08.6589058.158.0166662.3571066.16.933333410.214.216666
64.08.6741878.18757.5781252.31675176.1406256.98437510.17187514.125
68.08.66124258.1911767.67647082.25333176.17647087.010.11764713.941176
72.08.680868.2222228.1252.20086486.257.055555310.11111113.875
76.08.6683728.2236847.46052652.13376246.257.065789710.09210513.763158
80.08.6589058.23757.7252.08101536.28757.087510.0513.5625
84.08.6844718.2619058.0833332.05120186.3571437.130952410.04761913.583333
88.08.6762248.2613647.95454552.00089626.3757.15909110.03409113.431818
92.08.6671678.260877.9239131.9637556.3804357.17391310.013.358696
96.08.6589058.2708337.906251.91765996.406257.18759.9687513.1875
100.08.6515638.297.921.85805756.447.229.9413.07
200.08.6934238.4357.9551.37354046.9457.579.7112.015
300.08.7516628.5466678.2266661.14696687.21666677.789.686666511.44
400.08.6934238.5158.73250.99344137.31757.839.527511.045
500.08.6515638.5128.0740.88086647.3987.8729.39810.694

Simulation Stationarity

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Stationarity Plot

Moment Rate Plot

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 313 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.04494681.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.00380720.687 (68.68%)[67.37% 69.96%]0.00155880.047238618
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.03040121.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.00106320.354 (35.36%)[34.04% 36.71%]4.416E-40.03419009
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0199841.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.00168880.362 (36.20%)[34.87% 37.55%]6.232E-40.016211301
Mendocino0.01957081.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.00101880.351 (35.10%)[33.78% 36.44%]4.94E-40.028919645
Cerro Prieto0.01433281.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]6.952E-40.217 (21.70%)[20.57% 22.87%]2.48E-40.015186971
Imperial0.01239081.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]6.864E-40.259 (25.86%)[24.66% 27.10%]3.348E-40.014349225
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.01158921.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]5.376E-40.215 (21.50%)[20.37% 22.67%]2.544E-40.013392845
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.01007921.000 (99.98%)[99.87% 100.00%]5.964E-40.206 (20.56%)[19.45% 21.71%]2.628E-40.009440966
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.00887161.000 (99.96%)[99.84% 99.99%]8.052E-40.251 (25.06%)[23.87% 26.29%]3.636E-40.008909097
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev0.00856920.995 (99.52%)[99.27% 99.69%]2.492E-40.080 (7.98%)[7.25% 8.77%]8.6E-50.008455746

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 306 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
Cerro Prieto0.01230361.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]6.124E-40.202 (20.22%)[19.12% 21.37%]2.232E-40.013091409
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.01136720.999 (99.92%)[99.78% 99.97%]5.104E-40.207 (20.72%)[19.61% 21.88%]2.112E-40.012216282
Mendocino0.00980921.000 (99.98%)[99.87% 100.00%]6.352E-40.251 (25.08%)[23.89% 26.31%]3.1E-40.012516479
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0085541.000 (99.96%)[99.84% 99.99%]4.892E-40.177 (17.72%)[16.68% 18.81%]2.172E-40.008140643
Imperial0.00852841.000 (99.96%)[99.84% 99.99%]4.244E-40.176 (17.62%)[16.58% 18.71%]2.016E-40.0096799815
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.00811721.000 (99.96%)[99.84% 99.99%]3.82E-40.161 (16.08%)[15.08% 17.13%]1.788E-40.009075132
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.00740840.999 (99.94%)[99.81% 99.98%]5.28E-40.194 (19.38%)[18.30% 20.51%]2.152E-40.0067372364
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.00721960.998 (99.84%)[99.67% 99.93%]4.372E-40.179 (17.92%)[16.87% 19.02%]1.992E-40.00821497
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.00696120.999 (99.90%)[99.75% 99.96%]3.744E-40.145 (14.46%)[13.50% 15.47%]1.432E-40.0067538084
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.006380.998 (99.84%)[99.67% 99.93%]5.168E-40.191 (19.08%)[18.00% 20.20%]2.42E-40.006658823

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 274 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.00708480.993 (99.34%)[99.06% 99.54%]3.812E-40.165 (16.48%)[15.47% 17.54%]1.596E-40.007612852
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0059181.000 (99.98%)[99.87% 100.00%]4.66E-40.187 (18.66%)[17.59% 19.77%]2.04E-40.005722108
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.00591281.000 (99.98%)[99.87% 100.00%]4.64E-40.183 (18.32%)[17.26% 19.43%]2.004E-40.0057427646
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.00560280.994 (99.42%)[99.16% 99.60%]2.916E-40.127 (12.72%)[11.82% 13.68%]1.268E-40.0062776324
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.00550320.999 (99.92%)[99.78% 99.97%]3.616E-40.148 (14.78%)[13.81% 15.80%]1.604E-40.0052993274
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.00508041.000 (99.98%)[99.87% 100.00%]3.472E-40.145 (14.54%)[13.58% 15.55%]1.52E-40.0051040766
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.00487440.998 (99.82%)[99.65% 99.91%]3.248E-40.134 (13.44%)[12.51% 14.42%]1.424E-40.005556243
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.00477120.982 (98.24%)[97.83% 98.58%]2.728E-40.115 (11.52%)[10.65% 12.44%]1.172E-40.004749499
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.00469640.998 (99.82%)[99.65% 99.91%]3.26E-40.139 (13.92%)[12.98% 14.92%]1.408E-40.0045623486
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.00452480.994 (99.36%)[99.09% 99.55%]3.248E-40.137 (13.74%)[12.80% 14.73%]1.496E-40.0049385377

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 220 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.00495920.999 (99.94%)[99.81% 99.98%]3.352E-40.142 (14.24%)[13.29% 15.25%]1.468E-40.0049894005
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.00455520.997 (99.70%)[99.49% 99.83%]3.136E-40.136 (13.56%)[12.63% 14.55%]1.36E-40.0044245115
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.00448840.995 (99.46%)[99.20% 99.64%]2.872E-40.125 (12.50%)[11.60% 13.46%]1.272E-40.0045267143
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.00429920.993 (99.30%)[99.02% 99.50%]2.952E-40.129 (12.88%)[11.97% 13.85%]1.268E-40.004201805
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.00410280.988 (98.80%)[98.45% 99.08%]2.796E-40.123 (12.34%)[11.45% 13.29%]1.208E-40.0040264158
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.00383280.988 (98.78%)[98.42% 99.06%]2.332E-40.101 (10.14%)[9.32% 11.02%]1.056E-40.0045710644
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.00367680.953 (95.32%)[94.69% 95.88%]2.164E-40.097 (9.70%)[8.90% 10.56%]9.52E-50.0037959707
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0034860.902 (90.22%)[89.36% 91.02%]1.892E-40.089 (8.88%)[8.11% 9.71%]8.04E-50.0038110747
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.00316080.909 (90.88%)[90.04% 91.66%]2.072E-40.096 (9.58%)[8.79% 10.44%]8.92E-50.0032088608
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM0.00308240.938 (93.80%)[93.09% 94.44%]1.732E-40.081 (8.06%)[7.33% 8.86%]7.36E-50.0035515025

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 77 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.00149920.595 (59.54%)[58.16% 60.90%]8.32E-50.040 (4.00%)[3.48% 4.59%]3.6E-50.0018098651
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.00146960.587 (58.68%)[57.30% 60.05%]7.96E-50.038 (3.84%)[3.33% 4.42%]3.48E-50.0017636013
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.00145920.584 (58.36%)[56.98% 59.73%]8.08E-50.039 (3.88%)[3.37% 4.46%]3.6E-50.0017508415
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.00145240.582 (58.20%)[56.82% 59.57%]8.08E-50.039 (3.88%)[3.37% 4.46%]3.6E-50.0017453934
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0014320.575 (57.50%)[56.11% 58.87%]8.04E-50.039 (3.86%)[3.35% 4.44%]3.6E-50.0017193216
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.00140720.568 (56.82%)[55.43% 58.20%]7.64E-50.037 (3.72%)[3.22% 4.29%]3.36E-50.0016807786
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.00123360.508 (50.84%)[49.44% 52.23%]6.96E-50.034 (3.36%)[2.89% 3.91%]3.16E-50.0015122787
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.001130.469 (46.90%)[45.51% 48.30%]6.08E-50.030 (2.96%)[2.52% 3.48%]2.88E-50.0014250289
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM7.776E-40.347 (34.74%)[33.42% 36.08%]3.84E-50.019 (1.88%)[1.53% 2.31%]1.84E-50.0010319632
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM6.888E-40.312 (31.18%)[29.90% 32.49%]3.28E-50.016 (1.60%)[1.28% 2.00%]1.64E-59.2652056E-4

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 5000,
  "duration": 500.0,
  "startYear": 2012,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 1615935409518,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_triggered_descendants",
      "descendantsOnly": true
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV\u003d1.5, MaxPtSrcM\u003d6, Scale Factor 1.29, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog, RedoLarger",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2021_03_16-Start2012_500yr_kCOV1p5_MaxPtSrcM6_ScaleFactor1p29_Spontaneous_HistoricalCatalog_RedoLarg",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.29,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "etas_k_cov": 1.5,
  "maxPointSourceMag": 6.0,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 5000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --max-point-src-mag 6 --scale-factor 1.29 --name-add RedoLarger --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec",
  "configTime": 1615935409518
}