Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, MaxPtSrcM=6, Scale Factor 1.29, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog Results

Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, MaxPtSrcM=6, Scale Factor 1.29, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog
Num Simulations1000
Start Time2012/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1325376000000
Duration500 Years
Includes Spontaneous?true
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Trigger Ruptures60366 Trigger Ruptures
First: M7.3 at 1852/01/05 04:40:39 UTC
Last: M3.2 at 2011/12/31 19:14:44 UTC
Largest: M7.9 at 1857/01/09 16:25:39 UTC
Config Generated Withu3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --max-point-src-mag 6 --scale-factor 1.29 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec

Table Of Contents

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous

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Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥58.6327.38410.6008.5168.4548.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.16.8265.8208.3806.7266.3826.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.25.3944.6066.6665.3105.1945.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.34.2573.6585.2564.1884.1584.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.43.3512.8684.1163.3043.2323.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.52.6302.2463.2222.5902.5742.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.62.0591.7522.5042.0341.8622.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.71.6051.3721.9261.5881.5161.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.81.2451.0721.5061.2321.2661.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.90.9470.8141.1360.9380.9201.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥60.7480.6460.8880.7440.7600.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.10.5760.4940.6820.5720.5600.6601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.20.4540.3840.5320.4500.4480.5291.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.30.3570.2980.4240.3560.3700.4201.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.40.2790.2320.3300.2780.2880.3321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.50.2160.1760.2600.2140.2120.2601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.60.1680.1340.2040.1680.1700.2051.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.70.1300.1040.1620.1300.1240.1601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.80.1020.0760.1280.1020.0980.1271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.90.0800.0600.1020.0800.0820.1001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥70.0630.0460.0820.0620.0640.0781.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.10.0480.0320.0640.0480.0440.0601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.20.0360.0220.0500.0360.0360.0451.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.30.0280.0160.0400.0280.0300.0351.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.40.0220.0120.0300.0220.0220.0271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.50.0158.00E-30.0220.0160.0160.0191.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.60.0116.00E-30.0180.0120.0100.0141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.77.90E-34.00E-30.0148.00E-38.00E-39.58E-31.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.85.43E-32.00E-30.0106.00E-36.00E-36.19E-30.990 (99.00%)[98.10% 99.49%]0.990 (99.00%)
M≥7.93.00E-30.0006.00E-32.00E-32.00E-33.51E-30.880 (88.00%)[85.79% 89.92%]0.880 (88.00%)
M≥81.65E-30.0004.00E-32.00E-32.00E-32.03E-30.627 (62.70%)[59.61% 65.69%]0.627 (62.70%)
M≥8.17.50E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-30.344 (34.40%)[31.47% 37.45%]0.344 (34.40%)
M≥8.23.06E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0004.48E-40.143 (14.30%)[12.22% 16.66%]0.143 (14.30%)
M≥8.35.60E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-40.028 (2.80%)[1.90% 4.08%]0.028 (2.80%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)

Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

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Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥50.3310.1440.8800.2740.1988.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.998 (99.80%)0.093
M≥5.10.2620.1100.6860.2160.1726.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.998 (99.80%)0.074
M≥5.20.2080.0840.5340.1720.1325.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.998 (99.80%)0.059
M≥5.30.1640.0660.4160.1360.1244.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.998 (99.80%)0.047
M≥5.40.1290.0500.3340.1080.0863.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.998 (99.80%)0.038
M≥5.50.1010.0380.2620.0860.0662.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.998 (99.80%)0.030
M≥5.60.0790.0280.2040.0680.0542.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.998 (99.80%)0.024
M≥5.70.0620.0200.1560.0520.0401.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.998 (99.80%)0.019
M≥5.80.0480.0140.1140.0420.0381.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.998 (99.80%)0.016
M≥5.90.0360.0100.0880.0320.0261.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.994 (99.40%)0.012
M≥60.0288.00E-30.0680.0240.0240.8360.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.994 (99.40%)9.95E-3
M≥6.10.0214.00E-30.0500.0200.0120.6600.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]0.990 (99.00%)7.72E-3
M≥6.20.0174.00E-30.0420.0160.0100.5290.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]0.985 (98.50%)6.38E-3
M≥6.30.0142.00E-30.0360.0128.00E-30.4200.992 (99.20%)[98.36% 99.63%]0.978 (97.80%)5.28E-3
M≥6.40.0112.00E-30.0280.0108.00E-30.3320.978 (97.80%)[96.63% 98.58%]0.957 (95.70%)4.12E-3
M≥6.58.31E-30.0000.0228.00E-36.00E-30.2600.948 (94.80%)[93.19% 96.06%]0.928 (92.80%)3.23E-3
M≥6.66.50E-30.0000.0186.00E-36.00E-30.2050.912 (91.20%)[89.23% 92.85%]0.891 (89.10%)2.54E-3
M≥6.74.96E-30.0000.0164.00E-32.00E-30.1600.866 (86.60%)[84.29% 88.62%]0.837 (83.70%)1.94E-3
M≥6.83.96E-30.0000.0124.00E-32.00E-30.1270.814 (81.40%)[78.82% 83.74%]0.786 (78.60%)1.57E-3
M≥6.93.21E-30.0000.0102.00E-32.00E-30.1000.753 (75.30%)[72.48% 77.92%]0.730 (73.00%)1.29E-3
M≥72.67E-30.0000.0102.00E-32.00E-30.0780.690 (69.00%)[66.01% 71.84%]0.670 (67.00%)1.06E-3
M≥7.12.04E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0600.603 (60.30%)[57.18% 63.34%]0.585 (58.50%)8.00E-4
M≥7.21.63E-30.0006.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0450.524 (52.40%)[49.25% 55.53%]0.508 (50.80%)6.62E-4
M≥7.31.38E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0350.464 (46.40%)[43.28% 49.55%]0.455 (45.50%)5.50E-4
M≥7.41.12E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0270.400 (40.00%)[36.96% 43.12%]0.395 (39.50%)4.60E-4
M≥7.58.32E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0190.316 (31.60%)[28.74% 34.60%]0.314 (31.40%)3.42E-4
M≥7.66.54E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0140.252 (25.20%)[22.56% 28.03%]0.251 (25.10%)2.64E-4
M≥7.74.66E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0009.58E-30.194 (19.40%)[17.02% 22.02%]0.194 (19.40%)1.96E-4
M≥7.83.46E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0006.19E-30.153 (15.30%)[13.16% 17.72%]0.153 (15.30%)1.56E-4
M≥7.92.04E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0003.51E-30.093 (9.30%)[7.61% 11.31%]0.093 (9.30%)9.40E-5
M≥81.00E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0002.03E-30.048 (4.80%)[3.60% 6.36%]0.048 (4.80%)4.00E-5
M≥8.14.20E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-30.021 (2.10%)[1.34% 3.25%]0.021 (2.10%)1.40E-5
M≥8.21.60E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.48E-48.00E-3 (0.80%)[0.37% 1.64%]8.00E-3 (0.80%)4.00E-6
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-40.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Long Term Rate Variability

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162 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.6383398.3641987.97530841.39472416.77777777.4876549.70370412.179012
5.16.83051636.6172846.44444471.09770045.3395065.9197537.6851859.574074
5.25.39819345.2345685.1481480.865851464.22222234.67901236.0802477.5061727
5.34.26012754.13580234.06172850.67712383.32098773.6913584.77777775.9382715
5.43.35372833.26543213.16666670.52909222.61111122.90740753.76543214.648148
5.52.63252072.56172852.45061730.411292232.04938272.28395062.96296293.6234567
5.62.0608912.0061731.95061730.317011151.60493831.78395062.31481482.8333333
5.71.6068541.56790131.55555560.242508191.23456791.38888881.8086422.1851852
5.81.24588481.22222221.20370380.183780570.95061731.0740741.40740741.6728395
5.90.947561740.932098750.92592590.138124910.72222220.820987641.0740741.2654321
6.00.74902680.74074070.72222220.108226470.56172840.64814810.85185190.9876543
6.10.57654730.567901250.59259260.085336120.425925940.493827160.6543210.7654321
6.20.454191360.450617280.450617280.069180550.333333340.382716060.51851850.59876543
6.30.357481480.351851850.35802470.057996970.259259250.302469130.413580240.4814815
6.40.279847740.27777780.271604930.0480362550.197530870.23456790.32716050.38271606
6.50.215895060.216049390.216049390.040539960.141975310.179012340.253086420.30246913
6.60.168347730.166666670.148148150.0338870550.104938270.135802460.20370370.24074075
6.70.130086420.129629630.123456790.0284584130.080246910.104938270.160493820.19135803
6.80.102409470.098765430.104938270.0242542380.0617283960.080246910.123456790.15432099
6.90.080362140.080246910.0740740750.0211044180.0432098770.0617283960.098765430.12345679
7.00.0629876550.0617283960.0617283960.018560020.0308641980.0432098770.080246910.10493827
7.10.0482345670.0493827160.0493827160.0156787750.0185185190.0308641980.0617283960.08024691
7.20.0362654330.0370370370.0370370370.01331490.0123456790.0246913580.0493827160.061728396
7.30.0285576130.0246913580.0246913580.0115285770.00617283960.0185185190.0370370370.055555556
7.40.0218127570.0185185190.0185185190.0098537540.00617283960.0123456790.0308641980.043209877
7.50.01552880650.0123456790.0123456790.0081808670.00.00617283960.0246913580.030864198
7.60.0113786010.0123456790.0123456790.0066353160.00.00617283960.0185185190.024691358
7.70.0078806590.00617283960.00617283960.0054123830.00.00.0123456790.018518519
7.80.00540534970.00617283960.00617283960.0045116990.00.00.0123456790.012345679
7.90.00299176950.00.00.00359810840.00.00.00617283960.012345679
8.00.00163786010.00.00.0028528820.00.00.00617283960.0061728396
8.17.489712E-40.00.00.0020218120.00.00.00.0061728396
8.23.0658435E-40.00.00.00134108240.00.00.00.0061728396
8.35.7613168E-50.00.05.935634E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

80 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.6418238.257.68751.92725856.31257.12510.02513.1625
5.16.83331446.53756.2251.51635094.96255.6257.92510.4
5.25.4003525.16254.8251.19576053.91254.456.28758.175
5.34.2617044.0753.8250.939255953.0753.54.96256.45
5.43.35500843.21253.150.73392952.42.753.91255.0375
5.52.6334022.53752.4250.571523961.86252.153.0753.925
5.62.06161451.98751.90.441864041.451.68752.41253.0875
5.71.60734381.56251.56250.33877961.1251.31251.88752.3875
5.81.24619161.21251.18750.258305130.851.01251.46251.8375
5.90.94780.9250.8750.196154980.650.76251.1251.4
6.00.74928120.73750.7250.153695880.50.60.88751.1
6.10.57681670.56250.550.121611710.36250.46250.68750.85
6.20.454439580.450.40.0989594460.28750.36250.550.675
6.30.357691680.350.3250.082882980.21250.2750.43750.5375
6.40.280004170.2750.28750.069131220.16250.21250.350.425
6.50.216033340.21250.21250.0587798250.11250.16250.2750.3375
6.60.168489590.16250.16250.0498349850.0750.1250.21250.275
6.70.130206260.1250.11250.0421820730.06250.08750.1750.2125
6.80.1025520860.10.10.0365165840.03750.06250.13750.175
6.90.0804666650.0750.06250.0316575240.0250.050.11250.15
7.00.063043750.06250.050.0278143250.01250.03750.08750.125
7.10.0482854170.050.03750.0239694420.01250.0250.0750.1
7.20.0363020820.03750.0250.0205699370.00.01250.050.0875
7.30.028581250.0250.0250.0178408080.00.01250.050.0625
7.40.021818750.0250.01250.0153011250.00.01250.03750.05
7.50.0155250.01250.01250.0127359150.00.00.0250.0375
7.60.011368750.01250.01250.0106700740.00.00.0250.0375
7.70.0078750.01250.00.0087360.00.00.01250.025
7.80.00539166670.00.00.0072271720.00.00.01250.025
7.90.00298958340.00.00.0055476060.00.00.01250.0125
8.00.00163958340.00.00.0042627620.00.00.00.0125
8.17.4791664E-40.00.00.00296472250.00.00.00.0125
8.23.0833334E-40.00.00.00193883910.00.00.00.0
8.35.8333335E-50.00.08.519178E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

28 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.6385797.9285717.1428573.12147025.56.510.46428616.071428
5.16.8305996.2857145.6428572.45948654.3214295.1071438.28571412.642858
5.25.3982524.9642864.6071431.93914643.3571434.0357146.5714299.964286
5.34.26023533.92857153.71428561.52330662.6071433.17857155.2142867.821429
5.43.35388883.1071432.96428561.19310622.02.46428564.1071436.178571
5.52.63256722.46428562.21428560.93020031.53571431.92857153.254.821429
5.62.06098751.92857151.67857150.72124681.17857151.52.57142853.7857144
5.71.60701051.51.39285720.55595870.892857131.14285722.02.892857
5.81.24592231.17857151.07142850.425125630.642857130.892857131.57142852.25
5.90.94761340.892857130.857142870.323508830.46428570.67857141.21428571.6785715
6.00.7492080.714285730.67857140.25664470.357142870.50.964285731.3214285
6.10.576840340.57142860.535714270.204580590.250.392857130.751.0357143
6.20.454392850.428571430.392857130.168532650.178571430.28571430.607142870.8214286
6.30.357716380.357142870.321428570.141891330.107142860.214285720.50.6785714
6.40.28001050.250.250.12033410.0714285750.178571430.392857130.53571427
6.50.21600210.214285720.178571430.102926030.0357142870.107142860.321428570.4642857
6.60.168445380.142857150.142857150.088218580.0357142870.0714285750.250.35714287
6.70.130195380.107142860.107142860.075194950.00.0714285750.214285720.2857143
6.80.1025105040.107142860.0714285750.065320220.00.0357142870.178571430.25
6.90.080443280.0714285750.0714285750.0567660260.00.0357142870.142857150.21428572
7.00.063010510.0714285750.0357142870.0495587740.00.00.107142860.17857143
7.10.0482815130.0357142870.0357142870.0428738070.00.00.0714285750.14285715
7.20.0363088250.0357142870.0357142870.0367683620.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.30.0285819320.0357142870.00.0321230070.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.40.0218214280.00.00.0277677720.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.50.015523110.00.00.0234088380.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.60.0113697480.00.00.0198831260.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.70.0078655460.00.00.0163007430.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.80.00538655460.00.00.0133498280.00.00.00.035714287
7.90.00298949590.00.00.0099740310.00.00.00.035714287
8.00.00163655460.00.00.00751800280.00.00.00.035714287
8.17.4369746E-40.00.00.00509975850.00.00.00.0
8.23.0252102E-40.00.00.0032730420.00.00.00.0
8.35.252101E-50.00.00.00136857290.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Variability Duration Dependence

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Duration Dependence Plot

Download CSV Here

Duration (years)MeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
1.08.631917.05.012.5007541.04.012.027.0
4.08.631917.256.57.17053563.55.011.022.5
8.08.6328347.56.55.3540294.3755.62510.7520.25
12.08.634127.58333357.16666654.5457764.755.916666510.66666718.75
16.08.6328347.757.03.98971255.06256.12510.62517.8125
20.08.631917.86.83.61237675.256.310.5517.0
24.08.6418237.8756.91666653.3281735.3756.416666510.516.5
28.08.6385797.9285717.1428573.12147025.56.510.46428616.071428
32.08.6418238.07.252.91148695.593756.5937510.4062515.6875
36.08.6406848.0277787.05555532.78695875.756.666666510.36111115.472222
40.08.6418238.057.52.64369085.7756.72510.3515.025
44.08.6396968.0681827.6590912.5257875.9090916.795454510.29545514.727273
48.08.6418238.1041677.91666652.43895755.91666656.812510.22916714.520833
52.08.6406848.1346157.55769252.36185556.06.865384610.21153814.365385
56.08.6513038.1785727.8571432.26167856.0535716.91071410.21428614.017858
60.08.6418238.1666677.6333332.19298246.16.966666710.16666714.0
64.08.6513038.2031257.4531252.10990886.1718757.0312510.12513.65625
68.08.6385798.2058827.66176462.06282786.19117647.02941210.08823513.558824
72.08.6609318.2361117.79166652.02784356.27777777.097222310.05555513.472222
76.08.6465598.2368428.4078951.97178756.30263147.10526310.02631613.184211
80.08.6418238.257.68751.92725856.31257.12510.02513.1625
84.08.6678548.2619058.3452381.90881056.4047627.190476410.03571413.047619
88.08.6594238.2840918.3977271.83990736.42045457.20454559.98863613.068182
92.08.6424468.2934787.85869551.79056496.4239137.1956529.92391312.978261
96.08.6418238.31257.32291651.74886516.44791657.19791659.92708312.9375
100.08.631918.297.731.74309586.477.229.8612.9
200.08.6729228.4658.671.25183436.9957.69.62511.87
300.08.7148778.5466678.4933331.0058727.24333337.83666669.57666711.216666
400.08.6729228.53758.430.90453867.33257.85759.47510.8225
500.08.631918.5168.4540.822863167.3847.8929.3610.6

Simulation Stationarity

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Stationarity Plot

Moment Rate Plot

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 313 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0448121.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0036160.673 (67.30%)[64.28% 70.19%]0.00160.047238618
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0303941.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]9.66E-40.346 (34.60%)[31.67% 37.65%]3.94E-40.03419009
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0199841.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0018240.384 (38.40%)[35.39% 41.50%]7.08E-40.016211301
Mendocino0.0194761.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]9.96E-40.345 (34.50%)[31.57% 37.55%]5.0E-40.028919645
Cerro Prieto0.0142381.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.42E-40.208 (20.80%)[18.35% 23.48%]2.48E-40.015186971
Imperial0.0126681.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.78E-40.262 (26.20%)[23.52% 29.06%]2.94E-40.014349225
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0118521.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.44E-40.216 (21.60%)[19.11% 24.31%]2.18E-40.013392845
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0100521.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.22E-40.202 (20.20%)[17.78% 22.85%]2.56E-40.009440966
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0088641.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.66E-40.280 (28.00%)[25.26% 30.91%]4.16E-40.008909097
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev0.008570.997 (99.70%)[99.05% 99.92%]2.54E-40.078 (7.80%)[6.25% 9.68%]7.8E-50.008455746

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 306 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
Cerro Prieto0.0121621.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.52E-40.190 (19.00%)[16.64% 21.60%]2.22E-40.013091409
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.011441.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.78E-40.211 (21.10%)[18.64% 23.79%]2.08E-40.012216282
Mendocino0.0096641.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.86E-40.239 (23.90%)[21.31% 26.69%]3.1E-40.012516479
Imperial0.0087361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.96E-40.173 (17.30%)[15.03% 19.82%]1.5E-40.0096799815
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0085321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.2E-40.182 (18.20%)[15.88% 20.76%]2.14E-40.008140643
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0082681.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.64E-40.160 (16.00%)[13.81% 18.45%]1.36E-40.009075132
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.007291.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.62E-40.214 (21.40%)[18.92% 24.10%]2.42E-40.0067372364
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0071761.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.2E-40.174 (17.40%)[15.13% 19.93%]2.16E-40.00821497
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0070081.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.24E-40.166 (16.60%)[14.38% 19.09%]1.5E-40.0067538084
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0063241.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.64E-40.214 (21.40%)[18.92% 24.10%]2.78E-40.006658823

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 274 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0071860.993 (99.30%)[98.50% 99.69%]3.54E-40.165 (16.50%)[14.28% 18.98%]1.56E-40.007612852
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0059681.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.26E-40.179 (17.90%)[15.60% 20.45%]1.96E-40.0057427646
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0058481.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.3E-40.178 (17.80%)[15.51% 20.35%]2.0E-40.005722108
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0054920.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]2.76E-40.123 (12.30%)[10.36% 14.53%]1.36E-40.0062776324
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0053680.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]3.74E-40.159 (15.90%)[13.72% 18.35%]1.58E-40.0052993274
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0049761.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.4E-40.149 (14.90%)[12.78% 17.29%]1.44E-40.0051040766
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0048960.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]3.58E-40.150 (15.00%)[12.87% 17.40%]1.46E-40.005556243
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0046680.982 (98.20%)[97.11% 98.90%]2.96E-40.130 (13.00%)[11.01% 15.28%]1.16E-40.004749499
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0046460.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]3.26E-40.145 (14.50%)[12.41% 16.87%]1.46E-40.0045623486
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0045840.994 (99.40%)[98.63% 99.76%]3.46E-40.153 (15.30%)[13.16% 17.72%]1.66E-40.0049385377

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 210 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0048621.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.32E-40.146 (14.60%)[12.50% 16.98%]1.42E-40.0049894005
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0045160.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]3.18E-40.141 (14.10%)[12.03% 16.45%]1.42E-40.0044245115
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0043540.991 (99.10%)[98.23% 99.56%]3.04E-40.133 (13.30%)[11.29% 15.60%]1.28E-40.0045267143
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0042440.994 (99.40%)[98.63% 99.76%]3.02E-40.138 (13.80%)[11.75% 16.13%]1.38E-40.004201805
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0040040.984 (98.40%)[97.36% 99.05%]2.88E-40.131 (13.10%)[11.10% 15.39%]1.32E-40.0040264158
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0038480.982 (98.20%)[97.11% 98.90%]2.58E-40.114 (11.40%)[9.53% 13.57%]1.08E-40.0045710644
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0035460.942 (94.20%)[92.52% 95.53%]2.4E-40.108 (10.80%)[8.98% 12.93%]9.8E-50.0037959707
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0034760.894 (89.40%)[87.29% 91.21%]2.08E-40.100 (10.00%)[8.25% 12.07%]9.6E-50.0038110747
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0031240.905 (90.50%)[88.47% 92.21%]2.22E-40.101 (10.10%)[8.34% 12.18%]1.02E-40.0032088608
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM0.0031140.948 (94.80%)[93.19% 96.06%]1.92E-40.088 (8.80%)[7.15% 10.77%]9.0E-50.0035515025

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 53 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0014940.596 (59.60%)[56.48% 62.65%]9.2E-50.044 (4.40%)[3.25% 5.91%]3.6E-50.0018098651
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0014580.584 (58.40%)[55.27% 61.47%]9.2E-50.044 (4.40%)[3.25% 5.91%]3.6E-50.0017636013
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0014560.582 (58.20%)[55.07% 61.27%]9.0E-50.043 (4.30%)[3.16% 5.80%]3.6E-50.0017453934
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0014480.581 (58.10%)[54.97% 61.17%]9.0E-50.043 (4.30%)[3.16% 5.80%]3.6E-50.0017508415
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0014120.568 (56.80%)[53.66% 59.89%]9.0E-50.043 (4.30%)[3.16% 5.80%]3.6E-50.0017193216
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0013780.561 (56.10%)[52.96% 59.20%]8.0E-50.038 (3.80%)[2.74% 5.23%]3.0E-50.0016807786
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.001220.503 (50.30%)[47.16% 53.44%]7.6E-50.037 (3.70%)[2.65% 5.12%]3.2E-50.0015122787
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0011080.458 (45.80%)[42.68% 48.95%]7.0E-50.035 (3.50%)[2.49% 4.89%]2.8E-50.0014250289
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM7.62E-40.340 (34.00%)[31.08% 37.04%]4.8E-50.024 (2.40%)[1.58% 3.61%]2.0E-50.0010319632
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM6.8E-40.305 (30.50%)[27.68% 33.47%]4.2E-50.021 (2.10%)[1.34% 3.25%]1.6E-59.2652056E-4

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 1000,
  "duration": 500.0,
  "startYear": 2012,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 1615913088736,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_triggered_descendants",
      "descendantsOnly": true
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV\u003d1.5, MaxPtSrcM\u003d6, Scale Factor 1.29, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2021_03_16-Start2012_500yr_kCOV1p5_MaxPtSrcM6_ScaleFactor1p29_Spontaneous_HistoricalCatalog",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.29,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "etas_k_cov": 1.5,
  "maxPointSourceMag": 6.0,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --max-point-src-mag 6 --scale-factor 1.29 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec",
  "configTime": 1615913088736
}