Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, MaxPtSrcM=6, NoERT, Scale Factor 1.16, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog, RedoLarger Results

Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, MaxPtSrcM=6, NoERT, Scale Factor 1.16, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog, RedoLarger
Num Simulations5000
Start Time2012/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1325376000000
Duration500 Years
Includes Spontaneous?true
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Trigger Ruptures60366 Trigger Ruptures
First: M7.3 at 1852/01/05 04:40:39 UTC
Last: M3.2 at 2011/12/31 19:14:44 UTC
Largest: M7.9 at 1857/01/09 16:25:39 UTC
Config Generated Withu3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 5000 --duration-years 500 --prob-model NO_ERT --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --max-point-src-mag 6 --scale-factor 1.16 --name-add RedoLarger --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec

Table Of Contents

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous

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Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥58.6227.24610.8708.4827.8888.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.16.8255.7268.5706.7166.5246.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.25.3984.5386.7525.3125.4105.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.34.2653.5885.3204.1984.1524.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.43.3652.8264.1743.3163.2543.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.52.6502.2283.2722.6142.5062.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.62.0821.7542.5662.0561.9862.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.71.6311.3761.9861.6121.6581.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.81.2721.0761.5381.2601.2741.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.90.9750.8221.1720.9680.9521.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥60.7770.6580.9240.7740.7600.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.10.6040.5100.7160.6020.6140.6601.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.20.4820.4040.5680.4800.4820.5291.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.30.3840.3200.4560.3840.3840.4201.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.40.3050.2520.3620.3040.3120.3321.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.50.2380.1940.2860.2380.2440.2601.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.60.1870.1500.2260.1880.1880.2051.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.70.1460.1140.1780.1460.1500.1601.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.80.1160.0900.1440.1160.1200.1271.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.90.0910.0680.1160.0920.0940.1001.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥70.0720.0540.0940.0720.0700.0781.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.10.0550.0400.0740.0560.0560.0601.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.20.0420.0280.0560.0420.0420.0451.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.30.0330.0220.0460.0320.0320.0351.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.40.0260.0160.0360.0260.0240.0271.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.50.0180.0100.0260.0180.0160.0191.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.60.0148.00E-30.0200.0140.0120.0141.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.79.22E-34.00E-30.0140.0108.00E-39.58E-31.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.86.40E-32.00E-30.0106.00E-36.00E-36.19E-30.997 (99.70%)[99.49% 99.83%]0.997 (99.70%)
M≥7.93.50E-30.0008.00E-34.00E-34.00E-33.51E-30.910 (91.00%)[90.16% 91.77%]0.910 (91.00%)
M≥81.83E-30.0006.00E-32.00E-32.00E-32.03E-30.659 (65.92%)[64.58% 67.23%]0.659 (65.92%)
M≥8.18.32E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-30.365 (36.54%)[35.21% 37.89%]0.365 (36.54%)
M≥8.23.48E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0004.48E-40.166 (16.64%)[15.62% 17.71%]0.166 (16.64%)
M≥8.37.72E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-40.038 (3.82%)[3.31% 4.40%]0.038 (3.82%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)

Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

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Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥50.4230.1561.3080.3200.2208.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.998 (99.80%)0.095
M≥5.10.3350.1221.0460.2560.1706.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.998 (99.80%)0.075
M≥5.20.2650.0940.8140.2040.1765.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.998 (99.80%)0.060
M≥5.30.2100.0740.6400.1620.1044.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.998 (99.80%)0.048
M≥5.40.1660.0560.5000.1300.0863.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.998 (99.80%)0.039
M≥5.50.1310.0440.3900.1020.0742.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.998 (99.80%)0.031
M≥5.60.1030.0340.3000.0820.0482.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.998 (99.80%)0.025
M≥5.70.0810.0260.2320.0660.0501.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.998 (99.80%)0.020
M≥5.80.0630.0180.1820.0520.0421.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.998 (99.80%)0.016
M≥5.90.0480.0140.1340.0400.0321.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.998 (99.80%)0.013
M≥60.0380.0100.1020.0320.0220.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.998 (99.78%)0.011
M≥6.10.0296.00E-30.0760.0260.0180.6600.999 (99.94%)[99.81% 99.98%]0.996 (99.56%)8.25E-3
M≥6.20.0244.00E-30.0620.0200.0120.5290.999 (99.90%)[99.75% 99.96%]0.994 (99.42%)6.87E-3
M≥6.30.0204.00E-30.0520.0160.0120.4200.997 (99.68%)[99.47% 99.81%]0.991 (99.10%)5.68E-3
M≥6.40.0162.00E-30.0420.0148.00E-30.3320.991 (99.12%)[98.81% 99.35%]0.983 (98.30%)4.56E-3
M≥6.50.0122.00E-30.0320.0108.00E-30.2600.979 (97.92%)[97.48% 98.29%]0.968 (96.80%)3.57E-3
M≥6.69.55E-30.0000.0268.00E-34.00E-30.2050.961 (96.06%)[95.47% 96.57%]0.947 (94.70%)2.83E-3
M≥6.77.51E-30.0000.0226.00E-34.00E-30.1600.926 (92.62%)[91.85% 93.32%]0.906 (90.60%)2.23E-3
M≥6.86.15E-30.0000.0186.00E-34.00E-30.1270.892 (89.22%)[88.32% 90.06%]0.873 (87.26%)1.80E-3
M≥6.95.04E-30.0000.0164.00E-32.00E-30.1000.846 (84.62%)[83.58% 85.60%]0.829 (82.86%)1.44E-3
M≥74.17E-30.0000.0144.00E-32.00E-30.0780.796 (79.62%)[78.47% 80.72%]0.782 (78.18%)1.16E-3
M≥7.13.23E-30.0000.0122.00E-32.00E-30.0600.720 (71.98%)[70.71% 73.22%]0.707 (70.72%)8.88E-4
M≥7.22.55E-30.0000.0102.00E-30.0000.0450.641 (64.12%)[62.77% 65.45%]0.632 (63.22%)6.96E-4
M≥7.32.13E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0350.579 (57.88%)[56.50% 59.25%]0.573 (57.32%)5.68E-4
M≥7.41.71E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0270.504 (50.44%)[49.04% 51.83%]0.501 (50.08%)4.40E-4
M≥7.51.26E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0190.410 (40.96%)[39.59% 42.34%]0.408 (40.84%)3.16E-4
M≥7.61.03E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0140.355 (35.50%)[34.18% 36.85%]0.355 (35.46%)2.48E-4
M≥7.77.39E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0009.58E-30.281 (28.10%)[26.86% 29.37%]0.281 (28.06%)1.74E-4
M≥7.85.42E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0006.19E-30.218 (21.80%)[20.67% 22.98%]0.218 (21.80%)1.20E-4
M≥7.93.04E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0003.51E-30.133 (13.28%)[12.36% 14.26%]0.133 (13.28%)6.68E-5
M≥81.59E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0002.03E-30.074 (7.44%)[6.74% 8.21%]0.074 (7.44%)3.44E-5
M≥8.17.16E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-30.035 (3.46%)[2.98% 4.01%]0.035 (3.46%)1.60E-5
M≥8.22.80E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.48E-40.014 (1.36%)[1.07% 1.73%]0.014 (1.36%)6.40E-6
M≥8.36.40E-60.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-43.20E-3 (0.32%)[0.19% 0.53%]3.20E-3 (0.32%)1.60E-6
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Long Term Rate Variability

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162 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.6266428.3209887.8148151.6366826.54938277.29012359.85185112.518518
5.16.82871066.59259276.40123461.2873785.17901235.7716057.80246939.888889
5.25.40135575.2160495.1111111.00944334.09259274.57407436.16666657.8024693
5.34.26721674.1234573.95679020.79037093.22222233.61111124.8765436.1296296
5.43.36700323.25925923.16049390.61494972.53086422.85802463.8456794.8209877
5.52.65182382.5740742.43209890.477642331.99382712.25308633.03086423.7592592
5.62.08321022.02469131.89506170.367052261.56172841.77160492.37654332.9444444
5.71.63164151.59259261.59876540.279820741.22222221.38888881.86419752.271605
5.81.27309721.24691361.21604940.21130770.956790151.08641971.45679011.7530864
5.90.9754930.956790150.932098750.158238680.72222220.83333331.11728391.3271605
6.00.777809440.76543210.74074070.122018460.57407410.660493850.88888891.0493827
6.10.604359270.598765430.57407410.09644440.43827160.51234570.697530870.8148148
6.20.482104540.475308660.46913580.0778131260.345679010.40740740.55555560.6481481
6.30.384397120.382716060.364197520.0639478860.271604930.320987640.444444450.5185185
6.40.30513250.302469130.290123460.0533235560.209876540.253086420.35802470.41975307
6.50.238068310.23456790.222222220.044766340.154320990.191358030.283950630.33333334
6.60.187540320.185185180.191358030.0377169920.117283950.148148150.222222220.2654321
6.70.145665840.141975310.148148150.031818110.0864197540.111111110.179012340.21604939
6.80.1158888860.117283950.104938270.0270234030.067901230.0864197540.141975310.17283951
6.90.091543620.092592590.0864197540.023359220.0493827160.067901230.117283950.14197531
7.00.072398360.067901230.067901230.0203699080.0370370370.0493827160.092592590.11728395
7.10.0554181080.0555555560.0493827160.0174106580.0246913580.0370370370.0740740750.09259259
7.20.0418032930.0432098770.0370370370.0144761660.0185185190.0246913580.0555555560.074074075
7.30.0331979430.0308641980.0308641980.0124384360.0123456790.0185185190.0432098770.061728396
7.40.0256209880.0246913580.0246913580.0106489140.00617283960.0123456790.0370370370.049382716
7.50.018175720.0185185190.0185185190.0087852240.00617283960.0123456790.0246913580.037037037
7.60.0135246920.0123456790.0123456790.00712025440.00.00617283960.0185185190.030864198
7.70.0092255150.00617283960.00617283960.00564886260.00.00617283960.0123456790.018518519
7.80.00640658430.00617283960.00617283960.0046123110.00.00.0123456790.018518519
7.90.00350205760.00617283960.00.00374462760.00.00.00617283960.012345679
8.00.00183209880.00.00.0029726550.00.00.00617283960.0061728396
8.18.3045266E-40.00.00.00212672730.00.00.00.0061728396
8.23.4485597E-40.00.00.00142482880.00.00.00.0061728396
8.37.7366254E-50.00.06.867197E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

80 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.6285228.16257.7252.29241785.98756.87510.212514.1375
5.16.8304256.46256.0251.8033784.7255.43758.087511.1625
5.25.4026285.1254.8251.41442493.7254.31256.38758.8125
5.34.2682654.053.93751.10741852.93753.45.056.9
5.43.36785913.22.9750.862496262.32.68753.98755.425
5.52.65248162.53752.4250.6699061.82.11253.154.2375
5.62.08373952.01.88750.51612021.41.66252.4753.2875
5.71.6320751.56251.48750.393490971.08751.31.93752.55
5.81.27345121.2251.2250.298331980.83751.01251.51251.9625
5.90.97582750.950.9250.223510070.63750.7751.16251.4875
6.00.778119150.76250.73750.173304650.50.61250.93751.1625
6.10.604669150.58750.5750.137430620.3750.4750.73750.9125
6.20.482366260.4750.450.111365450.30.3750.58750.725
6.30.384626660.3750.350.092320630.2250.30.4750.5875
6.40.305337070.30.2750.077737270.1750.2250.3750.475
6.50.238239170.23750.21250.065721040.1250.1750.30.375
6.60.187682080.18750.1750.0559181240.08750.13750.23750.3125
6.70.145762090.13750.1250.047656470.06250.10.18750.25
6.80.115950410.11250.10.0409213640.050.0750.150.2
6.90.0915866640.08750.08750.0354654640.0250.06250.1250.1625
7.00.072432920.0750.06250.0309231020.0250.03750.10.1375
7.10.055454170.050.050.0266929290.01250.0250.08750.1125
7.20.041834580.03750.03750.0224473440.00.0250.06250.0875
7.30.0332350.0250.0250.0195130130.00.01250.050.075
7.40.0256545840.0250.0250.0168112570.00.01250.03750.0625
7.50.018203750.01250.01250.0139109350.00.00.03750.05
7.60.0135483330.01250.01250.0115823570.00.00.0250.0375
7.70.0092408330.01250.01250.0093865330.00.00.01250.025
7.80.00641750.00.00.0077502060.00.00.01250.025
7.90.00350958340.00.00.00597220240.00.00.01250.0125
8.00.00183666670.00.00.00449439320.00.00.00.0125
8.18.3416665E-40.00.00.0031278320.00.00.00.0125
8.23.4666667E-40.00.00.00205513320.00.00.00.0125
8.37.833333E-50.00.09.864231E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

28 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.6296617.756.8214293.70192225.1785716.17857110.67857217.214285
5.16.83135186.1785715.6785712.91512854.0357144.8928578.46428613.607142
5.25.40340384.8928574.1428572.29037453.1428573.8571436.71428610.714286
5.34.26890133.8928573.3928571.79349162.46428563.03571445.3214298.428572
5.43.36836983.07142852.6428571.3996941.89285722.3928574.2142866.642857
5.52.65292432.42857152.17857151.08836891.46428571.85714283.3571435.178571
5.62.08407521.92857151.750.84078191.10714281.46428572.6428574.035714
5.71.63237691.51.35714280.64362340.857142871.14285722.07142853.107143
5.81.27366551.17857151.03571430.490431930.642857130.892857131.64285722.392857
5.90.976048770.92857140.857142870.369192870.46428570.67857141.251.8214285
6.00.778285740.750.750.289208470.357142870.535714271.03571431.4285715
6.10.60482770.57142860.535714270.231203360.250.392857130.82142861.1428572
6.20.482486130.46428570.428571430.190198380.178571430.28571430.642857130.9285714
6.30.38471680.357142870.321428570.15957890.142857150.250.535714270.75
6.40.305411340.28571430.250.135258990.0714285750.178571430.428571430.60714287
6.50.238286140.214285720.214285720.115108450.0714285750.142857150.357142870.5
6.60.187724780.178571430.142857150.098522670.0357142870.107142860.28571430.42857143
6.70.145807980.142857150.107142860.0841760340.00.0714285750.214285720.35714287
6.80.115980250.107142860.107142860.072938910.00.0357142870.178571430.2857143
6.90.091624790.0714285750.0714285750.063497430.00.0357142870.142857150.25
7.00.0724588260.0714285750.0357142870.0555912330.00.0357142870.142857150.21428572
7.10.0554584040.0357142870.0357142870.047897060.00.00.107142860.17857143
7.20.041842440.0357142870.0357142870.0407224630.00.00.0714285750.14285715
7.30.0332399160.0357142870.00.035690960.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.40.0256571430.0357142870.00.0310204640.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.50.0182033610.00.00.0258167930.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.60.013551680.00.00.0218284450.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.70.0092407570.00.00.017712230.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.80.00641932760.00.00.0146323050.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.90.00351176480.00.00.0108784080.00.00.00.035714287
8.00.00183865540.00.00.0079470720.00.00.00.035714287
8.18.344538E-40.00.00.00540329940.00.00.00.0
8.23.4579833E-40.00.00.00349719360.00.00.00.0
8.37.8991594E-50.00.00.00167776310.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Variability Duration Dependence

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Duration Dependence Plot

Download CSV Here

Duration (years)MeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
1.08.621576.05.014.5396421.03.012.030.0
4.08.621577.06.08.4025013.254.7511.025.0
8.08.623077.256.3756.32850274.05.2511.022.25
12.08.6234227.41666656.41666655.32905774.41666655.583333510.91666720.5
16.08.623077.56.43754.711584.68755.812510.87519.375
20.08.621577.66.44.26633554.95.9510.818.5
24.08.6285227.70833357.1253.94639685.04166656.083333510.7517.833334
28.08.6296617.756.8214293.70192225.1785716.17857110.67857217.214285
32.08.6285227.81257.156253.48334965.281256.2812510.6562516.8125
36.08.6301887.8611117.02777773.3109475.3611116.36111110.58333316.416666
40.08.6285227.9257.053.152385.456.42510.5516.075
44.08.6267327.95454557.03.01185925.54545456.510.515.772727
48.08.6285228.07.18752.88817745.60416656.541666510.45833315.541667
52.08.6301888.07.34615372.7952755.6730776.615384610.44230715.307693
56.08.63517958.0535727.2678572.69876845.7321436.64285710.37515.142858
60.08.6285228.057.2666672.62146075.7666676.710.3514.883333
64.08.63517958.093757.5781252.54383665.8281256.7510.312514.71875
68.08.6296618.10294157.79411752.4730735.8676476.77941210.27941114.617647
72.08.6435188.1388897.52777772.42618185.93055536.819444710.27777814.472222
76.08.6353978.1447377.52631572.35418775.96052656.842105410.22368414.25
80.08.6285228.16257.7252.29241785.98756.87510.212514.1375
84.08.6485168.2023817.4285712.2570686.02380946.92857110.19047614.0
88.08.6373398.1931827.5340912.19868236.0681826.954545510.14772713.806818
92.08.6338378.2065227.73913052.13900356.0978266.97826110.14130413.75
96.08.6285228.2083337.77083352.09060146.1257.010.11458313.635417
100.08.621578.217.912.0416446.157.0210.0713.49
200.08.662938.4157.861.50124566.7257.439.812.075
300.08.7355388.5166668.321.25491617.057.67666679.74333311.596666
400.08.662938.49258.1251.0912387.117.7259.537511.085
500.08.621578.4827.8880.97227097.2467.7649.42410.87

Simulation Stationarity

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Stationarity Plot

Moment Rate Plot

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 313 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.05011241.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.00511160.710 (71.02%)[69.74% 72.27%]0.00163880.047238618
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0338141.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.00160920.445 (44.46%)[43.08% 45.85%]4.704E-40.03419009
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.02491681.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.0026720.385 (38.52%)[37.17% 39.89%]5.76E-40.016211301
Mendocino0.02075961.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.00146520.423 (42.26%)[40.89% 43.64%]5.464E-40.028919645
Cerro Prieto0.01572561.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]9.8E-40.267 (26.68%)[25.46% 27.93%]2.828E-40.015186971
Imperial0.01336921.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]9.16E-40.297 (29.66%)[28.40% 30.95%]3.652E-40.014349225
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.01247361.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]7.348E-40.263 (26.32%)[25.11% 27.57%]2.728E-40.013392845
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.01166961.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]7.868E-40.224 (22.40%)[21.26% 23.59%]2.728E-40.009440966
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.01070241.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]0.00123960.312 (31.24%)[29.96% 32.55%]3.892E-40.008909097
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev0.01040.996 (99.60%)[99.37% 99.75%]4.56E-40.107 (10.72%)[9.88% 11.62%]1.224E-40.008455746

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 306 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
Cerro Prieto0.01354961.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]8.596E-40.253 (25.34%)[24.14% 26.57%]2.568E-40.013091409
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.01326961.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]8.124E-40.293 (29.26%)[28.01% 30.55%]2.176E-40.012216282
Mendocino0.01095161.000 (99.98%)[99.87% 100.00%]9.632E-40.331 (33.06%)[31.76% 34.39%]3.48E-40.012516479
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.01002121.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]6.504E-40.203 (20.28%)[19.18% 21.43%]2.22E-40.008140643
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.00970521.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]9.464E-40.268 (26.78%)[25.56% 28.04%]1.916E-40.0067372364
Imperial0.00932841.000 (99.96%)[99.84% 99.99%]5.792E-40.216 (21.60%)[20.47% 22.77%]2.172E-40.0096799815
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0088821.000 (99.96%)[99.84% 99.99%]5.416E-40.205 (20.50%)[19.39% 21.65%]1.924E-40.009075132
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.00868481.000 (99.96%)[99.84% 99.99%]7.236E-40.222 (22.18%)[21.04% 23.36%]1.352E-40.0067538084
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.00812281.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]6.08E-40.224 (22.44%)[21.30% 23.63%]2.156E-40.00821497
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.00781281.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]8.504E-40.263 (26.34%)[25.13% 27.59%]2.644E-40.006658823

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 275 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0084280.999 (99.86%)[99.70% 99.94%]6.14E-40.244 (24.38%)[23.20% 25.60%]1.62E-40.007612852
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.00706521.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]7.372E-40.262 (26.16%)[24.95% 27.41%]1.624E-40.005722108
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.00692121.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]7.164E-40.254 (25.38%)[24.18% 26.62%]1.62E-40.0057427646
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.00683721.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]6.42E-40.220 (22.00%)[20.86% 23.18%]1.26E-40.0052993274
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.00639040.999 (99.86%)[99.70% 99.94%]4.368E-40.177 (17.68%)[16.64% 18.77%]1.476E-40.0062776324
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.00594241.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]5.652E-40.215 (21.54%)[20.41% 22.71%]1.212E-40.0051040766
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.00590960.995 (99.50%)[99.25% 99.67%]5.152E-40.190 (19.02%)[17.95% 20.14%]1.008E-40.004749499
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.00565321.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]5.008E-40.192 (19.18%)[18.10% 20.31%]1.416E-40.005556243
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.00561080.992 (99.18%)[98.88% 99.40%]5.632E-40.217 (21.68%)[20.55% 22.85%]1.136E-40.004465195
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0055141.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]5.472E-40.214 (21.36%)[20.24% 22.53%]1.196E-40.0045623486

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 224 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.00580041.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]5.532E-40.212 (21.24%)[20.12% 22.41%]1.172E-40.0049894005
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.00533361.000 (100.00%)[99.90% 100.00%]5.276E-40.209 (20.86%)[19.75% 22.02%]1.14E-40.0044245115
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0052420.999 (99.90%)[99.75% 99.96%]4.924E-40.192 (19.18%)[18.10% 20.31%]1.028E-40.0045267143
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.00495881.000 (99.96%)[99.84% 99.99%]4.864E-40.198 (19.82%)[18.73% 20.96%]1.012E-40.004201805
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.00474040.996 (99.62%)[99.40% 99.76%]4.644E-40.191 (19.14%)[18.06% 20.26%]9.68E-50.0040264158
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.00440320.997 (99.74%)[99.54% 99.86%]3.696E-40.150 (15.00%)[14.03% 16.03%]1.016E-40.0045710644
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.00430320.973 (97.28%)[96.78% 97.71%]3.884E-40.160 (15.98%)[14.98% 17.03%]8.56E-50.0037959707
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.00397760.933 (93.30%)[92.56% 93.97%]3.184E-40.141 (14.12%)[13.17% 15.12%]7.2E-50.0038110747
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.00369480.941 (94.14%)[93.44% 94.77%]3.536E-40.153 (15.26%)[14.28% 16.29%]7.16E-50.0032088608
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM0.00349880.976 (97.56%)[97.08% 97.96%]2.624E-40.122 (12.16%)[11.27% 13.11%]7.0E-50.0035515025

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 77 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.00165240.623 (62.30%)[60.94% 63.64%]1.448E-40.068 (6.78%)[6.11% 7.52%]3.04E-50.0018098651
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.00162040.615 (61.54%)[60.17% 62.89%]1.448E-40.068 (6.80%)[6.13% 7.54%]3.0E-50.0017508415
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.00161360.614 (61.42%)[60.05% 62.77%]1.436E-40.067 (6.74%)[6.07% 7.48%]2.96E-50.0017453934
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.001610.614 (61.44%)[60.07% 62.79%]1.42E-40.067 (6.70%)[6.03% 7.44%]3.0E-50.0017636013
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0015920.609 (60.86%)[59.49% 62.21%]1.436E-40.068 (6.76%)[6.09% 7.50%]2.96E-50.0017193216
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.00154760.596 (59.62%)[58.24% 60.98%]1.368E-40.065 (6.46%)[5.80% 7.19%]2.88E-50.0016807786
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.00139080.550 (55.04%)[53.65% 56.42%]1.248E-40.059 (5.88%)[5.25% 6.58%]2.68E-50.0015122787
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.00124840.507 (50.70%)[49.30% 52.09%]1.1E-40.053 (5.26%)[4.67% 5.92%]2.48E-50.0014250289
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM8.564E-40.375 (37.52%)[36.18% 38.88%]6.6E-50.032 (3.22%)[2.76% 3.76%]1.44E-50.0010319632
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM7.592E-40.340 (33.98%)[32.67% 35.31%]5.84E-50.029 (2.88%)[2.44% 3.39%]1.28E-59.2652056E-4

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 5000,
  "duration": 500.0,
  "startYear": 2012,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 1615935362631,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_triggered_descendants",
      "descendantsOnly": true
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV\u003d1.5, MaxPtSrcM\u003d6, NoERT, Scale Factor 1.16, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog, RedoLarger",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2021_03_16-Start2012_500yr_kCOV1p5_MaxPtSrcM6_NoERT_ScaleFactor1p16_Spontaneous_HistoricalCatalog_Re",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "NO_ERT",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.16,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "etas_k_cov": 1.5,
  "maxPointSourceMag": 6.0,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 5000 --duration-years 500 --prob-model NO_ERT --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --max-point-src-mag 6 --scale-factor 1.16 --name-add RedoLarger --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec",
  "configTime": 1615935362631
}