Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, MaxPtSrcM=6, NoERT, Scale Factor 1.16, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog Results

Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, MaxPtSrcM=6, NoERT, Scale Factor 1.16, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog
Num Simulations1000
Start Time2012/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1325376000000
Duration500 Years
Includes Spontaneous?true
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Trigger Ruptures60366 Trigger Ruptures
First: M7.3 at 1852/01/05 04:40:39 UTC
Last: M3.2 at 2011/12/31 19:14:44 UTC
Largest: M7.9 at 1857/01/09 16:25:39 UTC
Config Generated Withu3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --prob-model NO_ERT --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --max-point-src-mag 6 --scale-factor 1.16 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec

Table Of Contents

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous

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Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥58.6017.10010.7888.4708.1108.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.16.8105.6368.5446.6967.2086.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.25.3854.4506.7485.2985.1705.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.34.2533.5105.2744.1864.3364.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.43.3542.7704.1403.2983.1403.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.52.6412.2083.2502.5962.5222.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.62.0751.7362.5322.0462.0962.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.71.6241.3581.9701.6001.5661.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.81.2651.0641.5201.2501.2161.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.90.9700.8161.1600.9600.9761.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥60.7730.6540.9160.7680.7640.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.10.6000.5060.7100.5960.6140.6601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.20.4790.4040.5680.4780.4820.5291.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.30.3820.3180.4520.3800.3820.4201.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.40.3030.2500.3660.3020.2900.3321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.50.2370.1900.2860.2360.2260.2601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.60.1870.1500.2260.1860.1860.2051.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.70.1450.1140.1780.1460.1480.1601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.80.1150.0880.1420.1140.1160.1271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.90.0910.0680.1140.0900.0900.1001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥70.0720.0520.0920.0720.0720.0781.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.10.0550.0380.0720.0540.0540.0601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.20.0420.0280.0560.0420.0440.0451.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.30.0330.0200.0460.0340.0340.0351.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.40.0250.0160.0360.0260.0240.0271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.50.0180.0100.0280.0180.0180.0191.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.60.0148.00E-30.0200.0140.0140.0141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.79.11E-34.00E-30.0168.00E-38.00E-39.58E-31.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.86.37E-32.00E-30.0126.00E-36.00E-36.19E-30.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]0.998 (99.80%)
M≥7.93.44E-30.0008.00E-34.00E-34.00E-33.51E-30.901 (90.10%)[88.04% 91.85%]0.901 (90.10%)
M≥81.83E-30.0006.00E-32.00E-32.00E-32.03E-30.662 (66.20%)[63.16% 69.11%]0.662 (66.20%)
M≥8.18.52E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-30.379 (37.90%)[34.90% 41.00%]0.379 (37.90%)
M≥8.23.74E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0004.48E-40.178 (17.80%)[15.51% 20.35%]0.178 (17.80%)
M≥8.37.40E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-40.036 (3.60%)[2.57% 5.00%]0.036 (3.60%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)

Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

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Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥50.4280.1481.3020.3260.1968.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.094
M≥5.10.3390.1181.0460.2600.1866.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.075
M≥5.20.2690.0920.8280.2080.1465.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.060
M≥5.30.2130.0720.6320.1660.1224.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.048
M≥5.40.1680.0560.5100.1340.0943.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.038
M≥5.50.1330.0420.4060.1060.0802.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.031
M≥5.60.1040.0340.3060.0840.0642.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.025
M≥5.70.0820.0240.2380.0660.0441.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.020
M≥5.80.0640.0200.1800.0540.0321.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.016
M≥5.90.0480.0140.1360.0420.0261.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.998 (99.80%)0.013
M≥60.0380.0100.1040.0320.0220.8360.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.998 (99.80%)0.010
M≥6.10.0296.00E-30.0800.0260.0240.6600.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.994 (99.40%)8.13E-3
M≥6.20.0244.00E-30.0620.0200.0180.5290.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]0.994 (99.40%)6.81E-3
M≥6.30.0204.00E-30.0520.0160.0120.4200.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]0.990 (99.00%)5.67E-3
M≥6.40.0162.00E-30.0400.0140.0100.3320.989 (98.90%)[97.98% 99.42%]0.978 (97.80%)4.54E-3
M≥6.50.0120.0000.0320.0108.00E-30.2600.972 (97.20%)[95.92% 98.10%]0.963 (96.30%)3.62E-3
M≥6.69.74E-30.0000.0268.00E-38.00E-30.2050.960 (96.00%)[94.54% 97.09%]0.947 (94.70%)2.88E-3
M≥6.77.75E-30.0000.0226.00E-36.00E-30.1600.934 (93.40%)[91.63% 94.82%]0.915 (91.50%)2.27E-3
M≥6.86.29E-30.0000.0186.00E-34.00E-30.1270.895 (89.50%)[87.39% 91.30%]0.876 (87.60%)1.83E-3
M≥6.95.11E-30.0000.0164.00E-32.00E-30.1000.840 (84.00%)[81.55% 86.19%]0.824 (82.40%)1.45E-3
M≥74.16E-30.0000.0144.00E-32.00E-30.0780.787 (78.70%)[76.00% 81.17%]0.775 (77.50%)1.13E-3
M≥7.13.32E-30.0000.0122.00E-32.00E-30.0600.730 (73.00%)[70.11% 75.71%]0.720 (72.00%)8.48E-4
M≥7.22.60E-30.0000.0102.00E-30.0000.0450.647 (64.70%)[61.64% 67.65%]0.641 (64.10%)6.82E-4
M≥7.32.19E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0350.594 (59.40%)[56.28% 62.45%]0.591 (59.10%)5.60E-4
M≥7.41.77E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0270.520 (52.00%)[48.85% 55.13%]0.517 (51.70%)4.48E-4
M≥7.51.31E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0190.423 (42.30%)[39.22% 45.44%]0.422 (42.20%)3.26E-4
M≥7.61.06E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0140.359 (35.90%)[32.94% 38.97%]0.359 (35.90%)2.44E-4
M≥7.77.32E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0009.58E-30.276 (27.60%)[24.87% 30.50%]0.276 (27.60%)1.60E-4
M≥7.85.36E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0006.19E-30.215 (21.50%)[19.02% 24.20%]0.215 (21.50%)1.16E-4
M≥7.92.94E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0003.51E-30.128 (12.80%)[10.82% 15.07%]0.128 (12.80%)5.80E-5
M≥81.34E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0002.03E-30.062 (6.20%)[4.82% 7.92%]0.062 (6.20%)1.80E-5
M≥8.17.20E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-30.034 (3.40%)[2.40% 4.77%]0.034 (3.40%)1.00E-5
M≥8.23.80E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.48E-40.018 (1.80%)[1.10% 2.89%]0.018 (1.80%)8.00E-6
M≥8.31.40E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-46.00E-3 (0.60%)[0.24% 1.37%]6.00E-3 (0.60%)2.00E-6
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Long Term Rate Variability

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162 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.6070258.3086427.44444471.85141866.50617277.27777779.84567912.358025
5.16.81448556.58641966.3395061.45349735.1604945.7592597.80246939.716049
5.25.38804965.2160495.1604941.13407614.0679014.55555536.1604947.6419754
5.34.2555744.1234574.00617270.882567173.20987653.60493834.8456796.012346
5.43.3563273.24691373.3518520.680533232.53086422.83950613.82716064.703704
5.52.64299182.56790112.56790110.523668771.99382712.24074083.01851843.6851852
5.62.07666662.02469132.03086420.399811691.56790131.75925922.37654332.8580246
5.71.62523041.58641971.56790130.297165661.21604941.38271611.85802472.2160494
5.81.2663211.24074081.21604940.219380720.94444441.08024691.43827161.7222222
5.90.97047940.95061730.91975310.16127450.72222220.82716051.10493831.308642
6.00.77394030.76543210.790123460.122829250.57407410.660493850.882716061.037037
6.10.60092590.59259260.598765430.096376360.43827160.51234570.691358030.80246913
6.20.479584370.475308660.462962960.0769389940.345679010.40740740.55555560.6419753
6.30.38283950.376543220.370370360.0623530930.271604930.320987640.444444450.5185185
6.40.303831280.302469130.31481480.0526100660.209876540.253086420.35802470.41975307
6.50.237314820.23456790.228395060.04369320.160493820.191358030.27777780.33333334
6.60.18737860.185185180.185185180.037314330.117283950.148148150.222222220.2654321
6.70.14558230.141975310.148148150.0314828270.0864197540.117283950.179012340.20987654
6.80.115156380.111111110.117283950.0269104690.067901230.0864197540.141975310.17283951
6.90.09113580.092592590.0864197540.0230412930.0493827160.067901230.111111110.14197531
7.00.07193210.067901230.067901230.020045980.0370370370.0493827160.092592590.11728395
7.10.0551954730.0555555560.0555555560.016908320.0246913580.0370370370.0740740750.09259259
7.20.041569960.0432098770.0370370370.0141667510.0185185190.0246913580.0555555560.074074075
7.30.0330390930.0308641980.0308641980.0124372040.0123456790.0185185190.0432098770.061728396
7.40.0254218110.0246913580.0246913580.0106470250.00617283960.0123456790.0370370370.049382716
7.50.0181522630.0185185190.0185185190.0087132850.00617283960.0123456790.0246913580.037037037
7.60.0135144030.0123456790.0123456790.00715131640.00.00617283960.0185185190.030864198
7.70.00913786050.00617283960.00617283960.005595240.00.00617283960.0123456790.018518519
7.80.0063930040.00617283960.00617283960.00456565340.00.00.0123456790.018518519
7.90.00343415630.00.00.00374544320.00.00.00617283960.012345679
8.00.00184156370.00.00.00298600360.00.00.00617283960.0061728396
8.18.477366E-40.00.00.00214254340.00.00.00.0061728396
8.23.765432E-40.00.00.00147734760.00.00.00.0061728396
8.37.6131684E-50.00.06.812875E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

80 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.6069168.11258.03752.59869316.06.862510.214.075
5.16.81414376.43756.02.03654244.7255.4258.07511.1875
5.25.38786655.14.9251.58958383.71254.36.38758.775
5.34.25533344.054.08751.23698622.91253.38755.056.875
5.43.3563523.23.13750.95374222.32.66253.98755.3875
5.52.6432252.5252.350.733535351.82.13.154.1875
5.62.07687931.98751.90.560073441.41.652.4753.2625
5.71.62543131.56251.53750.41695981.08751.31.9252.525
5.81.26644371.2251.16250.308355330.83751.01251.51.9375
5.90.970489560.93750.91250.226510540.63750.7751.16251.475
6.00.77391460.750.70.173700510.50.61250.9251.1625
6.10.600958350.58750.5750.13707630.3750.4750.7250.9
6.20.479641680.4750.4250.111063120.28750.3750.58750.725
6.30.382831250.3750.350.091391730.2250.30.4750.5875
6.40.303783330.30.26250.077959380.1750.2250.3750.475
6.50.237233340.23750.2250.065632590.1250.1750.30.3875
6.60.187320830.18750.1750.0561162230.08750.13750.23750.3125
6.70.145470830.13750.13750.0475367980.06250.10.18750.25
6.80.115039590.11250.10.0406949220.03750.0750.150.2
6.90.091081250.08750.08750.0352500380.0250.06250.1250.1625
7.00.0718750.0750.06250.030664940.0250.03750.10.1375
7.10.055133330.050.050.0262520430.01250.0250.08750.1125
7.20.04153750.03750.03750.022190010.00.0250.06250.0875
7.30.033018750.0250.0250.019496170.00.01250.050.075
7.40.0253916660.0250.0250.0168047210.00.01250.03750.0625
7.50.0181333330.01250.01250.0138494480.00.00.0250.05
7.60.0135041670.01250.01250.0116360610.00.00.0250.0375
7.70.0091333330.01250.00.0093524140.00.00.01250.025
7.80.0063958330.00.00.0077176460.00.00.01250.025
7.90.00343333320.00.00.0059102430.00.00.01250.0125
8.00.00184583340.00.00.0045045330.00.00.00.0125
8.18.5E-40.00.00.00315508850.00.00.00.0125
8.23.7916665E-40.00.00.00214378540.00.00.00.0125
8.37.7083336E-50.00.09.785703E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

28 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.6072927.7142866.6785714.34503755.1428576.17857110.60714217.464285
5.16.81459476.1428575.3571433.40634974.0357144.8571438.42857213.785714
5.25.3882144.8571434.5714292.65846593.1428573.82142856.67857110.857142
5.34.25584463.8571433.46428562.06746652.42857153.05.2857148.5
5.43.35667233.07142852.6428571.59663081.85714282.3571434.2142866.642857
5.52.64352512.42857152.07142851.22920481.42857151.85714283.32142855.178571
5.62.07705471.92857151.64285720.9390641.10714281.46428572.6428574.035714
5.71.62541171.51.46428570.702367540.82142861.14285722.07142853.107143
5.81.26654621.17857151.17857150.51971810.642857130.857142871.60714282.392857
5.90.97050420.92857140.82142860.381461980.46428570.642857131.251.8214285
6.00.77401680.750.607142870.293510530.357142870.51.01.4285715
6.10.60100630.57142860.50.232261940.250.392857130.82142861.1428572
6.20.479691180.46428570.428571430.189498040.178571430.28571430.642857130.89285713
6.30.382834050.357142870.321428570.158417780.142857150.250.535714270.75
6.40.303802520.28571430.250.134397430.0714285750.178571430.428571430.60714287
6.50.237207980.214285720.214285720.1148097440.0714285750.142857150.357142870.5
6.60.187275220.178571430.142857150.098705350.0357142870.107142860.28571430.39285713
6.70.145439070.142857150.107142860.0841596350.00.0714285750.214285720.32142857
6.80.11499790.107142860.0714285750.072625810.00.0357142870.178571430.2857143
6.90.091037820.0714285750.0714285750.063305480.00.0357142870.142857150.25
7.00.0718340350.0714285750.0357142870.0553044680.00.0357142870.107142860.21428572
7.10.0550924350.0357142870.0357142870.04781320.00.00.107142860.17857143
7.20.04149580.0357142870.0357142870.040652780.00.00.0714285750.14285715
7.30.032972690.0357142870.00.035736150.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.40.0253550430.00.00.0309327780.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.50.0181029420.00.00.0257847920.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.60.0134789920.00.00.0217181520.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.70.0091197480.00.00.0175616570.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.80.0063865550.00.00.0145314380.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.90.0034222690.00.00.0107454150.00.00.00.035714287
8.00.00183613450.00.00.0079344280.00.00.00.035714287
8.18.487395E-40.00.00.00543983140.00.00.00.0
8.23.7605042E-40.00.00.00364540240.00.00.00.0
8.37.773109E-50.00.00.00166435230.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Variability Duration Dependence

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Duration Dependence Plot

Download CSV Here

Duration (years)MeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
1.08.6013846.05.016.84791.03.012.029.0
4.08.6013847.05.759.4951173.254.7511.024.5
8.08.6025927.1255.757.07721764.05.2510.87522.25
12.08.6034687.33333356.83333355.927614.41666655.583333510.83333320.5
16.08.6025927.57.06255.21952254.68755.812510.812519.4375
20.08.6013847.66.554.92652034.95.9510.718.55
24.08.6069167.66666657.20833354.37600955.04166656.041666510.66666718.0
28.08.6072927.7142866.6785714.34503755.1428576.17857110.60714217.464285
32.08.6069167.781257.18754.0252595.256.2812510.562516.875
36.08.6085927.83333357.58333353.67627295.3611116.333333510.52777816.63889
40.08.6069167.8758.153.61461145.456.410.47516.2
44.08.606817.9090917.253.5246165.54545456.477272510.43181815.818182
48.08.6069167.95833357.10416653.18319965.56256.520833510.41666715.416667
52.08.6085927.9807696.90384633.18971375.6730776.57692310.36538515.25
56.08.620197.9821437.3214293.17379335.7321436.62510.37515.107142
60.08.6069168.0166667.18333343.0425135.7333336.683333410.31666714.783334
64.08.620198.06257.3281253.02342685.7968756.7187510.26562514.78125
68.08.6072928.0735296.9705882.88385825.8823536.7510.2514.426471
72.08.6299248.0972227.47222232.73473245.91666656.777777710.27777814.472222
76.08.6133368.0921057.8552632.67563775.9868426.815789710.19736914.236842
80.08.6069168.11258.03752.59869316.06.862510.214.075
84.08.6356388.1666677.55952362.66215186.02380946.880952410.17857214.119047
88.08.6257718.1477278.1022732.59002956.0340916.920454510.17045513.920455
92.08.6108038.1413047.8043482.51854166.0543486.94565210.10869613.782609
96.08.6069168.1770838.031252.4462656.14583356.9687510.062513.489583
100.08.6013848.187.812.36289336.146.9810.0513.51
200.08.65599258.3658.291.80487946.6657.4259.7612.18
300.08.7028178.498.2166661.58509996.98666677.64333349.6511.643333
400.08.65599258.45758.01251.35625217.1157.7059.522511.27
500.08.6013848.478.111.18964747.17.7169.36210.788

Simulation Stationarity

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Stationarity Plot

Moment Rate Plot

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 313 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0500261.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0052640.683 (68.30%)[65.30% 71.16%]0.0015640.047238618
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.033751.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0016540.431 (43.10%)[40.01% 46.24%]4.4E-40.03419009
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.024481.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0026660.396 (39.60%)[36.56% 42.72%]5.62E-40.016211301
Mendocino0.0204661.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0014040.390 (39.00%)[35.98% 42.11%]5.04E-40.028919645
Cerro Prieto0.0159281.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.001070.279 (27.90%)[25.16% 30.81%]2.86E-40.015186971
Imperial0.013411.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]9.98E-40.318 (31.80%)[28.94% 34.80%]3.5E-40.014349225
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0125161.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.34E-40.279 (27.90%)[25.16% 30.81%]2.7E-40.013392845
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0118261.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]9.74E-40.284 (28.40%)[25.64% 31.32%]3.68E-40.009440966
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0105841.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0012140.305 (30.50%)[27.68% 33.47%]3.6E-40.008909097
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev0.0101040.993 (99.30%)[98.50% 99.69%]3.3E-40.097 (9.70%)[7.97% 11.75%]1.24E-40.008455746

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 306 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
Cerro Prieto0.0137981.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]9.28E-40.265 (26.50%)[23.81% 29.37%]2.52E-40.013091409
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0133561.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.26E-40.288 (28.80%)[26.03% 31.73%]2.08E-40.012216282
Mendocino0.010841.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]9.4E-40.312 (31.20%)[28.36% 34.19%]3.3E-40.012516479
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.011.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.02E-40.249 (24.90%)[22.27% 27.72%]3.08E-40.008140643
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.00961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]9.52E-40.276 (27.60%)[24.87% 30.50%]2.02E-40.0067372364
Imperial0.0093481.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.44E-40.232 (23.20%)[20.64% 25.97%]1.96E-40.0096799815
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0089241.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.14E-40.226 (22.60%)[20.07% 25.35%]1.88E-40.009075132
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0086821.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.94E-40.223 (22.30%)[19.78% 25.04%]1.38E-40.0067538084
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.008211.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.74E-40.198 (19.80%)[17.40% 22.44%]1.78E-40.00821497
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.007771.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.56E-40.258 (25.80%)[23.14% 28.65%]2.52E-40.006658823

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 275 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0084840.997 (99.70%)[99.05% 99.92%]6.06E-40.233 (23.30%)[20.74% 26.07%]1.44E-40.007612852
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0071121.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]7.4E-40.257 (25.70%)[23.04% 28.55%]1.6E-40.005722108
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0069661.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]7.18E-40.250 (25.00%)[22.37% 27.83%]1.6E-40.0057427646
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0067061.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.3E-40.222 (22.20%)[19.69% 24.93%]1.36E-40.0052993274
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0064720.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]4.12E-40.163 (16.30%)[14.09% 18.77%]1.14E-40.0062776324
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0058321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.84E-40.215 (21.50%)[19.02% 24.20%]1.24E-40.0051040766
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0057940.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]4.88E-40.185 (18.50%)[16.17% 21.08%]1.04E-40.004749499
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0056941.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.16E-40.193 (19.30%)[16.93% 21.91%]1.34E-40.005556243
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0056220.989 (98.90%)[97.98% 99.42%]5.9E-40.212 (21.20%)[18.73% 23.89%]1.18E-40.004465195
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0055080.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]5.62E-40.207 (20.70%)[18.26% 23.37%]1.52E-40.0049385377

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 212 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0057181.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.72E-40.211 (21.10%)[18.64% 23.79%]1.2E-40.0049894005
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0053041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.24E-40.196 (19.60%)[17.21% 22.23%]1.08E-40.0044245115
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0051980.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]4.98E-40.194 (19.40%)[17.02% 22.02%]1.1E-40.0045267143
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0049441.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.84E-40.187 (18.70%)[16.36% 21.29%]1.0E-40.004201805
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.004730.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]4.64E-40.181 (18.10%)[15.79% 20.66%]9.6E-50.0040264158
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0043660.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]3.8E-40.153 (15.30%)[13.16% 17.72%]9.4E-50.0045710644
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.004270.968 (96.80%)[95.46% 97.77%]3.88E-40.162 (16.20%)[14.00% 18.66%]8.4E-50.0037959707
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0040880.937 (93.70%)[91.97% 95.09%]3.32E-40.137 (13.70%)[11.66% 16.02%]7.4E-50.0038110747
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0036940.951 (95.10%)[93.52% 96.32%]3.74E-40.152 (15.20%)[13.06% 17.61%]7.6E-50.0032088608
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM0.0035120.977 (97.70%)[96.51% 98.50%]2.86E-40.126 (12.60%)[10.64% 14.85%]6.4E-50.0035515025

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 66 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0016540.629 (62.90%)[59.81% 65.89%]1.34E-40.062 (6.20%)[4.82% 7.92%]1.8E-50.0018098651
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0016340.621 (62.10%)[59.00% 65.10%]1.3E-40.060 (6.00%)[4.65% 7.70%]1.8E-50.0017508415
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.001630.624 (62.40%)[59.31% 65.40%]1.3E-40.060 (6.00%)[4.65% 7.70%]1.8E-50.0017636013
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0016260.620 (62.00%)[58.90% 65.01%]1.3E-40.060 (6.00%)[4.65% 7.70%]1.8E-50.0017453934
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0016080.620 (62.00%)[58.90% 65.01%]1.28E-40.059 (5.90%)[4.56% 7.59%]1.8E-50.0017193216
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.001570.612 (61.20%)[58.09% 64.22%]1.28E-40.060 (6.00%)[4.65% 7.70%]1.8E-50.0016807786
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.001370.560 (56.00%)[52.86% 59.10%]1.04E-40.050 (5.00%)[3.77% 6.59%]1.2E-50.0015122787
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0012540.519 (51.90%)[48.75% 55.03%]9.0E-50.043 (4.30%)[3.16% 5.80%]1.0E-50.0014250289
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM8.84E-40.390 (39.00%)[35.98% 42.11%]6.2E-50.029 (2.90%)[1.99% 4.19%]8.0E-60.0010319632
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM7.7E-40.344 (34.40%)[31.47% 37.45%]5.2E-50.024 (2.40%)[1.58% 3.61%]8.0E-69.2652056E-4

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 1000,
  "duration": 500.0,
  "startYear": 2012,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 1615913158278,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_triggered_descendants",
      "descendantsOnly": true
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV\u003d1.5, MaxPtSrcM\u003d6, NoERT, Scale Factor 1.16, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2021_03_16-Start2012_500yr_kCOV1p5_MaxPtSrcM6_NoERT_ScaleFactor1p16_Spontaneous_HistoricalCatalog",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "NO_ERT",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.16,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "etas_k_cov": 1.5,
  "maxPointSourceMag": 6.0,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --prob-model NO_ERT --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --max-point-src-mag 6 --scale-factor 1.16 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec",
  "configTime": 1615913158278
}