Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, MaxPtSrcM=6, NoERT, Scale Factor 1.16, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog Results

Table Of Contents

• Magnitude Frequency Distribution
  • Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous
  • Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events
• Long Term Rate Variability
  • 162 Year Variability
  • 80 Year Variability
  • 28 Year Variability
  • Variability Duration Dependence
• Simulation Stationarity
• Section Participation
  • Section Participation Plots
  • Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table
  • M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table
  • M≥7 Parent Sections Table
  • M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table
  • M≥8 Parent Sections Table
• Gridded Nucleation
• JSON Input File

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous

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Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

• Mean (thick black line): mean annual rate across all 1000 catalogs
• 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): annual rate percentiles across all 1000 catalogs
• Median (thin blue line): median annual rate across all 1000 catalogs
• Mode (thin cyan line): modal annual rate across all 1000 catalogs (scaled to annualized value)
• Fault System Solution (brown line): long-term MFD from the UCERF3 fault system solution
• 500 yr Probability (thin red line): 500 year probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
• 500 yr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
• 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
• Primary (thin green line): mean annual rate from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 1000 catalogs

Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

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Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

• Mean (thick black line): mean annual rate across all 1000 catalogs
• 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): annual rate percentiles across all 1000 catalogs
• Median (thin blue line): median annual rate across all 1000 catalogs
• Mode (thin cyan line): modal annual rate across all 1000 catalogs (scaled to annualized value)
• Fault System Solution (brown line): long-term MFD from the UCERF3 fault system solution
• 500 yr Probability (thin red line): 500 year probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
• 500 yr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
• 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
• Primary (thin green line): mean annual rate from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 1000 catalogs

Long Term Rate Variability

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162 Year Variability

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Download CSV Here

80 Year Variability

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Download CSV Here

28 Year Variability

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Download CSV Here

Variability Duration Dependence

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Download CSV Here

Simulation Stationarity

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Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min Mag	Complete Catalog (including spontaneous)	Ratio WRT Long-Term Model	Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)	Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.
M≥6.5
M≥7
M≥7.5
M≥8

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 313 with matching ruptures shown

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 306 with matching ruptures shown

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 275 with matching ruptures shown

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 212 with matching ruptures shown

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 66 with matching ruptures shown

Gridded Nucleation

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Min Mag	Complete Catalog (including spontaneous)	Ratio WRT Long-Term Model	Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)	Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥5
M≥6
M≥7

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 1000,
  "duration": 500.0,
  "startYear": 2012,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 1615913158278,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_triggered_descendants",
      "descendantsOnly": true
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV\u003d1.5, MaxPtSrcM\u003d6, NoERT, Scale Factor 1.16, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2021_03_16-Start2012_500yr_kCOV1p5_MaxPtSrcM6_NoERT_ScaleFactor1p16_Spontaneous_HistoricalCatalog",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "NO_ERT",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.16,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "etas_k_cov": 1.5,
  "maxPointSourceMag": 6.0,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --prob-model NO_ERT --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --max-point-src-mag 6 --scale-factor 1.16 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec",
  "configTime": 1615913158278
}