Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, Scale Factor 1.3, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog Results

Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, Scale Factor 1.3, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog
Num Simulations1000
Start Time2012/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1325376000000
Duration500 Years
Includes Spontaneous?true
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Trigger Ruptures60366 Trigger Ruptures
First: M7.3 at 1852/01/05 04:40:39 UTC
Last: M3.2 at 2011/12/31 19:14:44 UTC
Largest: M7.9 at 1857/01/09 16:25:39 UTC
Config Generated Withu3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --scale-factor 1.3 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec

Table Of Contents

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous

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Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥58.6097.33010.4528.5148.8908.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.16.8085.8008.2606.7326.6866.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.25.3744.5706.5105.3204.9945.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.34.2393.5985.1364.1964.2564.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.43.3342.8284.0363.3043.3123.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.52.6162.2183.1602.5942.5942.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.62.0461.7262.4822.0222.0402.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.71.5931.3541.9181.5761.5561.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.81.2331.0441.4761.2221.2441.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.90.9370.7961.1180.9280.9001.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥60.7380.6320.8740.7320.7180.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.10.5680.4840.6680.5640.5360.6601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.20.4470.3740.5280.4440.4340.5291.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.30.3510.2940.4140.3480.3460.4201.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.40.2750.2240.3260.2740.2740.3321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.50.2120.1720.2540.2120.2080.2601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.60.1650.1320.2000.1660.1660.2051.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.70.1280.1000.1560.1280.1280.1601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.80.1000.0780.1240.1000.0980.1271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.90.0790.0580.1000.0780.0780.1001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥70.0610.0440.0800.0620.0620.0781.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.10.0470.0320.0620.0460.0460.0601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.20.0350.0220.0480.0340.0340.0451.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.30.0280.0160.0380.0280.0280.0351.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.40.0210.0120.0320.0220.0220.0271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.50.0158.00E-30.0240.0140.0140.0191.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.60.0116.00E-30.0180.0120.0100.0141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.77.99E-34.00E-30.0148.00E-38.00E-39.58E-30.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.999 (99.90%)
M≥7.85.48E-32.00E-30.0106.00E-36.00E-36.19E-30.989 (98.90%)[97.98% 99.42%]0.989 (98.90%)
M≥7.93.00E-30.0006.00E-32.00E-32.00E-33.51E-30.865 (86.50%)[84.19% 88.53%]0.865 (86.50%)
M≥81.56E-30.0004.00E-32.00E-32.00E-32.03E-30.610 (61.00%)[57.89% 64.02%]0.610 (61.00%)
M≥8.16.94E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-30.313 (31.30%)[28.45% 34.29%]0.313 (31.30%)
M≥8.22.74E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0004.48E-40.135 (13.50%)[11.47% 15.81%]0.135 (13.50%)
M≥8.37.40E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-40.037 (3.70%)[2.65% 5.12%]0.037 (3.70%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)

Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

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Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥50.3260.1460.8340.2640.2028.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.093
M≥5.10.2570.1140.6540.2080.1426.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.074
M≥5.20.2030.0880.5180.1660.1425.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.059
M≥5.30.1600.0680.4020.1300.1164.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.047
M≥5.40.1260.0520.3220.1040.0923.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.038
M≥5.50.0990.0400.2520.0820.0702.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.030
M≥5.60.0780.0300.1980.0640.0622.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.024
M≥5.70.0600.0220.1560.0500.0441.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.019
M≥5.80.0470.0160.1180.0400.0281.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.015
M≥5.90.0350.0100.0900.0300.0281.0360.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.993 (99.30%)0.012
M≥60.0278.00E-30.0660.0240.0220.8360.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.991 (99.10%)9.75E-3
M≥6.10.0214.00E-30.0500.0180.0140.6600.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]0.986 (98.60%)7.51E-3
M≥6.20.0164.00E-30.0400.0140.0100.5290.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]0.981 (98.10%)6.25E-3
M≥6.30.0132.00E-30.0360.0128.00E-30.4200.989 (98.90%)[97.98% 99.42%]0.972 (97.20%)5.18E-3
M≥6.40.0102.00E-30.0268.00E-36.00E-30.3320.980 (98.00%)[96.87% 98.74%]0.955 (95.50%)4.13E-3
M≥6.57.96E-30.0000.0226.00E-36.00E-30.2600.955 (95.50%)[93.98% 96.66%]0.926 (92.60%)3.16E-3
M≥6.66.21E-30.0000.0186.00E-34.00E-30.2050.920 (92.00%)[90.10% 93.57%]0.894 (89.40%)2.49E-3
M≥6.74.81E-30.0000.0144.00E-32.00E-30.1600.870 (87.00%)[84.72% 88.99%]0.831 (83.10%)1.97E-3
M≥6.83.75E-30.0000.0122.00E-32.00E-30.1270.797 (79.70%)[77.04% 82.12%]0.759 (75.90%)1.56E-3
M≥6.92.97E-30.0000.0102.00E-32.00E-30.1000.734 (73.40%)[70.52% 76.09%]0.703 (70.30%)1.27E-3
M≥72.41E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-32.00E-30.0780.662 (66.20%)[63.16% 69.11%]0.640 (64.00%)1.05E-3
M≥7.11.85E-30.0006.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0600.573 (57.30%)[54.16% 60.38%]0.555 (55.50%)8.08E-4
M≥7.21.49E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0450.493 (49.30%)[46.16% 52.45%]0.480 (48.00%)6.72E-4
M≥7.31.21E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0350.424 (42.40%)[39.32% 45.54%]0.416 (41.60%)5.80E-4
M≥7.49.70E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0270.366 (36.60%)[33.62% 39.68%]0.360 (36.00%)4.58E-4
M≥7.56.94E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0190.282 (28.20%)[25.45% 31.12%]0.280 (28.00%)3.40E-4
M≥7.65.78E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0140.240 (24.00%)[21.41% 26.80%]0.239 (23.90%)2.88E-4
M≥7.74.28E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0009.58E-30.186 (18.60%)[16.26% 21.18%]0.185 (18.50%)2.24E-4
M≥7.83.16E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0006.19E-30.143 (14.30%)[12.22% 16.66%]0.143 (14.30%)1.64E-4
M≥7.91.54E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0003.51E-30.076 (7.60%)[6.07% 9.46%]0.076 (7.60%)8.00E-5
M≥86.00E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0002.03E-30.030 (3.00%)[2.07% 4.31%]0.030 (3.00%)3.20E-5
M≥8.12.20E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-30.011 (1.10%)[0.58% 2.02%]0.011 (1.10%)1.40E-5
M≥8.24.00E-60.0000.0000.0000.0004.48E-42.00E-3 (0.20%)[0.03% 0.80%]2.00E-3 (0.20%)4.00E-6
M≥8.32.00E-60.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-41.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.01% 0.65%]1.00E-3 (0.10%)2.00E-6
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Long Term Rate Variability

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162 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.6137518.3641988.1234571.43618586.7407417.42592579.70370411.987655
5.16.8117246.60493856.53086421.13214555.30246935.8765437.66666659.407408
5.25.377145.2160494.70987650.889031474.1851854.6543216.04938277.4012346
5.34.2414324.1234573.87654330.6945543.30246933.66666674.77777775.839506
5.43.33624083.24691373.1481480.54236172.59259252.87654333.75308634.537037
5.52.6175372.55555562.43209890.421552182.02469132.25925922.95061733.5555556
5.62.04713372.02.06790110.32766061.58024691.75925922.3086422.7592592
5.71.59348981.56172841.56172840.250887541.21604941.37037041.80246912.154321
5.81.23404531.20987651.1913580.189971160.93827161.06172841.40123461.6666666
5.90.93752880.92592590.9629630.143806040.71604940.802469131.06172841.2592592
6.00.73910490.728395040.73456790.110763420.55555560.635802450.83333330.9876543
6.10.56881480.56172840.51851850.087670420.419753070.487654330.64814810.7592593
6.20.447063770.444444450.444444450.0707269160.320987640.376543220.51234570.59876543
6.30.351187230.345679010.32716050.058110240.246913580.29629630.40740740.4691358
6.40.275168720.271604930.26543210.0482000970.185185180.228395060.320987640.37654322
6.50.212002050.209876540.191358030.0403811450.135802460.172839510.253086420.2962963
6.60.165623460.166666670.160493820.03384220.104938270.129629630.197530870.2345679
6.70.12775310.123456790.123456790.0284684930.0740740750.098765430.154320990.18518518
6.80.100413580.098765430.098765430.023952190.0555555560.0740740750.123456790.14814815
6.90.0786255150.080246910.080246910.0207120050.0370370370.0555555560.098765430.12345679
7.00.0615102870.0617283960.0617283960.0181710380.0308641980.0432098770.080246910.09876543
7.10.0467098770.0432098770.0432098770.0155781290.0185185190.0308641980.0617283960.08024691
7.20.0350740740.0370370370.0308641980.0131847710.0123456790.0246913580.0493827160.061728396
7.30.027672840.0246913580.0246913580.0112999120.00617283960.0185185190.0370370370.049382716
7.40.0211419760.0185185190.0185185190.0098256950.00617283960.0123456790.0308641980.043209877
7.50.0150699590.0123456790.0123456790.0080969170.00.00617283960.0246913580.030864198
7.60.01129629650.0123456790.0123456790.0066035920.00.00617283960.0185185190.024691358
7.70.0079897120.00617283960.00617283960.0053542680.00.00.0123456790.018518519
7.80.00548559660.00617283960.00617283960.00444103450.00.00.0123456790.012345679
7.90.00300823040.00.00.0035701550.00.00.00617283960.012345679
8.00.00157201650.00.00.00281848250.00.00.00617283960.0061728396
8.16.954732E-40.00.00.00197118470.00.00.00.0061728396
8.22.7572017E-40.00.00.00127512930.00.00.00.0061728396
8.37.407407E-50.00.06.7213125E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

80 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.6177528.2257.73751.97815416.28757.0759.962513.1625
5.16.8147256.56.18751.55887124.96255.58757.910.375
5.25.37945.155.2751.22492523.91254.41256.23758.15
5.34.24317074.06253.9250.958598263.0753.4754.93756.4625
5.43.33754593.21253.23750.74781782.42.73753.88755.0125
5.52.6186752.5252.23750.581066851.852.153.06253.95
5.62.04814391.9751.86250.450912541.451.66252.38753.0625
5.71.59425831.551.5750.344196621.11251.31.86252.375
5.81.23452291.21.20.261118920.851.01.451.8
5.90.93781670.91250.83750.197418380.63750.76251.11251.375
6.00.73933750.7250.70.153456550.50.60.8751.075
6.10.568904160.56250.56250.1216919650.36250.450.68750.825
6.20.447106240.43750.4250.098561990.2750.350.53750.6625
6.30.351227070.350.350.081358770.21250.2750.4250.525
6.40.275256250.2750.26250.0684026260.150.21250.33750.425
6.50.212052080.21250.18750.0579837670.11250.150.26250.3375
6.60.165702090.16250.16250.0493259950.0750.11250.21250.275
6.70.127791670.1250.1250.0419028920.050.08750.1750.2125
6.80.100422920.10.10.0358338650.03750.06250.13750.175
6.90.078633330.0750.06250.0310263150.0250.050.11250.15
7.00.061550.06250.050.0272121990.01250.03750.08750.125
7.10.0467229150.050.03750.0234424230.01250.0250.0750.1
7.20.0350750.03750.0250.0199440510.00.01250.050.075
7.30.02766250.0250.0250.0174282660.00.01250.050.0625
7.40.021131250.0250.01250.0150625940.00.00.03750.05
7.50.015056250.01250.01250.0125810690.00.00.0250.0375
7.60.0112833330.01250.01250.0106423360.00.00.0250.0375
7.70.0079854170.01250.00.0087980110.00.00.01250.025
7.80.00547916670.00.00.0072979440.00.00.01250.025
7.90.00301458340.00.00.0055995530.00.00.01250.0125
8.00.00157291660.00.00.0042019210.00.00.00.0125
8.16.9583335E-40.00.00.00287503330.00.00.00.0125
8.22.7708334E-40.00.00.00184031690.00.00.00.0
8.37.5E-50.00.09.6533675E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

28 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.6214047.8928576.9285713.2013985.5357146.510.35714216.142857
5.16.81769946.255.6785712.52542354.3214295.1071438.21428612.714286
5.25.3818824.9642864.4642861.98595213.3928574.06.510.0
5.34.24515963.92857153.71428561.55831422.6428573.1428575.1785717.857143
5.43.33907773.1071432.78571441.21665952.03571442.46428564.0714296.178571
5.52.61986352.42857152.17857150.943995831.53571431.92857153.21428564.785714
5.62.04904631.92857151.85714280.73010011.17857151.52.53571443.75
5.71.59501051.51.42857150.5605970.892857131.14285722.02.892857
5.81.23515131.17857151.00.42770110.67857140.892857131.57142852.2142856
5.90.93830250.892857130.82142860.324441280.46428570.642857131.17857151.6785715
6.00.73974370.714285730.67857140.254459020.357142870.50.964285731.3214285
6.10.569323540.535714270.535714270.203563870.250.392857130.751.0
6.20.44749790.428571430.357142870.166249860.178571430.28571430.607142870.8214286
6.30.351550430.321428570.321428570.13874630.107142860.214285720.50.64285713
6.40.27553570.250.250.1177967040.0714285750.178571430.392857130.53571427
6.50.212245790.214285720.178571430.100478870.0357142870.107142860.321428570.42857143
6.60.165880250.142857150.142857150.0856540050.0357142870.0714285750.250.35714287
6.70.127928570.107142860.107142860.0732005460.00.0714285750.214285720.2857143
6.80.1005189050.107142860.0714285750.063584060.00.0357142870.178571430.25
6.90.0787079860.0714285750.0714285750.0552134550.00.0357142870.142857150.21428572
7.00.061623950.0714285750.0357142870.0482836960.00.00.107142860.17857143
7.10.046773110.0357142870.0357142870.0417719930.00.00.0714285750.14285715
7.20.0351071430.0357142870.00.035657610.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.30.0276827740.0357142870.00.031273580.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.40.021153360.00.00.0271373150.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.50.01507563050.00.00.0228467730.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.60.011300420.00.00.0194287820.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.70.0079978990.00.00.0162569950.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.80.0054873950.00.00.013409790.00.00.00.035714287
7.90.00302100830.00.00.0100805660.00.00.00.035714287
8.00.00157773110.00.00.0073694290.00.00.00.035714287
8.16.97479E-40.00.00.0049571710.00.00.00.0
8.22.7941176E-40.00.00.00314657270.00.00.00.0
8.37.5630254E-50.00.00.00164175530.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Variability Duration Dependence

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Duration Dependence Plot

Download CSV Here

Duration (years)MeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
1.08.609267.05.012.8068071.04.012.027.0
4.08.609267.256.257.31582363.55.011.022.5
8.08.6099947.56.6255.49158674.3755.62510.7520.0
12.08.6116167.58333356.83333354.63367754.755.916666510.66666718.583334
16.08.6099947.68757.06254.07896665.06.12510.62517.875
20.08.609267.87.43.74025425.26.310.517.05
24.08.6177527.83333356.753.4623175.41666656.416666510.41666716.583334
28.08.6214047.8928576.9285713.2013985.5357146.510.35714216.142857
32.08.6177527.93757.253.03336955.6256.562510.3437515.6875
36.08.6221157.97222237.1111112.86951285.72222236.63888910.30555515.361111
40.08.6177528.0257.32.7516865.86.710.2515.025
44.08.6151388.0454557.4318182.6347795.86363656.727272510.22727314.704545
48.08.6177528.0833337.52083352.53667715.91666656.812510.20833314.541667
52.08.6221158.1153857.28846172.42373355.9807696.865384610.13461514.288462
56.08.6337578.1258.1252.36398436.0714296.91071410.16071414.0
60.08.6177528.157.41666652.28446656.1166676.933333410.13333313.733334
64.08.6337578.156257.343752.21283176.1093757.010.14062513.734375
68.08.6214048.1764717.8970592.14213046.20588257.014705710.07352913.558824
72.08.6494878.1944457.52.13252576.27777777.069444710.11111113.458333
76.08.6293628.2105267.5131582.04831466.28947357.078947510.03947413.171053
80.08.6177528.2257.73751.97815416.28757.0759.962513.1625
84.08.6581628.2619057.51190472.00157956.33333357.15476210.05952413.238095
88.08.6416688.2272738.3181821.9552096.36363657.170454510.04545513.056818
92.08.6266288.239137.58695651.89330676.3804357.1739139.94565212.858696
96.08.6177528.2291677.77083351.85280426.44791657.18759.92708312.802083
100.08.609268.237.891.800156.477.219.8812.78
200.08.6630488.4357.941.31201556.897.569.63511.655
300.08.701728.5566668.9333331.08077677.2333337.7666679.57333411.193334
400.08.6630488.52758.0850.9340937.317.83759.387510.7925
500.08.609268.5148.890.82679347.337.8629.3310.452

Simulation Stationarity

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Stationarity Plot

Moment Rate Plot

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 313 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0448421.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0037320.692 (69.20%)[66.22% 72.03%]0.001530.047238618
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0298061.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]9.52E-40.324 (32.40%)[29.52% 35.41%]4.3E-40.03419009
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0199041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0016660.357 (35.70%)[32.74% 38.77%]6.1E-40.016211301
Mendocino0.0193821.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]9.68E-40.350 (35.00%)[32.06% 38.06%]4.86E-40.028919645
Cerro Prieto0.014151.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.96E-40.222 (22.20%)[19.69% 24.93%]2.46E-40.015186971
Imperial0.0123141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.98E-40.233 (23.30%)[20.74% 26.07%]2.74E-40.014349225
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.011541.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.7E-40.199 (19.90%)[17.50% 22.54%]2.14E-40.013392845
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0097621.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.34E-40.183 (18.30%)[15.98% 20.87%]2.2E-40.009440966
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0088881.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.22E-40.265 (26.50%)[23.81% 29.37%]4.18E-40.008909097
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev0.0086440.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]2.72E-40.077 (7.70%)[6.16% 9.57%]8.0E-50.008455746

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 305 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
Cerro Prieto0.0121921.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.86E-40.199 (19.90%)[17.50% 22.54%]2.18E-40.013091409
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0111120.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]4.42E-40.186 (18.60%)[16.26% 21.18%]2.14E-40.012216282
Mendocino0.0097041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.3E-40.261 (26.10%)[23.42% 28.96%]3.16E-40.012516479
Imperial0.0085420.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]3.48E-40.154 (15.40%)[13.25% 17.82%]1.52E-40.0096799815
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0083961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.5E-40.167 (16.70%)[14.47% 19.19%]1.84E-40.008140643
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0081020.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]3.3E-40.148 (14.80%)[12.69% 17.19%]1.46E-40.009075132
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.007341.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.92E-40.181 (18.10%)[15.79% 20.66%]2.14E-40.0067372364
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0071521.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.74E-40.162 (16.20%)[14.00% 18.66%]1.94E-40.00821497
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0069021.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.36E-40.133 (13.30%)[11.29% 15.60%]1.34E-40.0067538084
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0064380.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]5.46E-40.203 (20.30%)[17.88% 22.96%]2.78E-40.006658823

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 272 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.007030.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]3.26E-40.146 (14.60%)[12.50% 16.98%]1.64E-40.007612852
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0058741.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.54E-40.173 (17.30%)[15.03% 19.82%]2.12E-40.005722108
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0058540.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]4.52E-40.171 (17.10%)[14.85% 19.61%]2.06E-40.0057427646
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0055720.997 (99.70%)[99.05% 99.92%]2.46E-40.111 (11.10%)[9.25% 13.25%]1.36E-40.0062776324
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0053821.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.14E-40.134 (13.40%)[11.38% 15.71%]1.58E-40.0052993274
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0049240.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]3.2E-40.135 (13.50%)[11.47% 15.81%]1.58E-40.0051040766
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0047820.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]2.78E-40.124 (12.40%)[10.45% 14.64%]1.44E-40.005556243
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0046860.990 (99.00%)[98.10% 99.49%]2.4E-40.104 (10.40%)[8.61% 12.50%]1.14E-40.004749499
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0046020.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]3.16E-40.134 (13.40%)[11.38% 15.71%]1.58E-40.0045623486
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.00460.997 (99.70%)[99.05% 99.92%]3.18E-40.140 (14.00%)[11.94% 16.34%]1.64E-40.0049385377

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 209 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0047980.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]3.08E-40.130 (13.00%)[11.01% 15.28%]1.54E-40.0049894005
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0044480.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]2.96E-40.126 (12.60%)[10.64% 14.85%]1.48E-40.0044245115
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0043320.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]2.6E-40.117 (11.70%)[9.81% 13.89%]1.32E-40.0045267143
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0041980.991 (99.10%)[98.23% 99.56%]2.92E-40.122 (12.20%)[10.27% 14.43%]1.44E-40.004201805
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0040240.984 (98.40%)[97.36% 99.05%]2.8E-40.117 (11.70%)[9.81% 13.89%]1.4E-40.0040264158
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0038060.987 (98.70%)[97.73% 99.28%]1.88E-40.089 (8.90%)[7.24% 10.88%]1.02E-40.0045710644
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0035380.952 (95.20%)[93.64% 96.40%]1.96E-40.090 (9.00%)[7.33% 10.99%]9.4E-50.0037959707
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0034780.896 (89.60%)[87.50% 91.39%]1.7E-40.080 (8.00%)[6.43% 9.90%]9.2E-50.0038110747
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.003120.892 (89.20%)[87.07% 91.02%]1.98E-40.091 (9.10%)[7.43% 11.10%]1.0E-40.0032088608
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM0.0030980.937 (93.70%)[91.97% 95.09%]1.42E-40.068 (6.80%)[5.35% 8.59%]8.4E-50.0035515025

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 55 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0014080.572 (57.20%)[54.06% 60.28%]5.6E-50.028 (2.80%)[1.90% 4.08%]2.8E-50.0018098651
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.001380.566 (56.60%)[53.46% 59.69%]5.6E-50.028 (2.80%)[1.90% 4.08%]2.8E-50.0017636013
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0013740.564 (56.40%)[53.26% 59.49%]5.6E-50.028 (2.80%)[1.90% 4.08%]3.0E-50.0017453934
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0013740.564 (56.40%)[53.26% 59.49%]5.6E-50.028 (2.80%)[1.90% 4.08%]3.0E-50.0017508415
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0013580.557 (55.70%)[52.56% 58.80%]5.6E-50.028 (2.80%)[1.90% 4.08%]3.0E-50.0017193216
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0013180.544 (54.40%)[51.25% 57.51%]5.4E-50.027 (2.70%)[1.82% 3.96%]2.6E-50.0016807786
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0011740.493 (49.30%)[46.16% 52.45%]4.4E-50.022 (2.20%)[1.42% 3.37%]2.8E-50.0015122787
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0010720.451 (45.10%)[41.99% 48.25%]4.0E-50.020 (2.00%)[1.26% 3.13%]2.6E-50.0014250289
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM7.48E-40.336 (33.60%)[30.69% 36.64%]3.0E-50.015 (1.50%)[0.87% 2.52%]2.2E-50.0010319632
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM6.56E-40.304 (30.40%)[27.58% 33.37%]2.0E-50.010 (1.00%)[0.51% 1.90%]1.6E-59.2652056E-4

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 1000,
  "duration": 500.0,
  "startYear": 2012,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 1615572485580,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_triggered_descendants",
      "descendantsOnly": true
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV\u003d1.5, Scale Factor 1.3, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2021_03_12-Start2012_500yr_kCOV1p5_ScaleFactor1p3_Spontaneous_HistoricalCatalog",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.3,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "etas_k_cov": 1.5,
  "maxPointSourceMag": 10.0,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --scale-factor 1.3 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec",
  "configTime": 1615572485580
}