Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, NoERT, Scale Factor 1.15, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog Results

Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, NoERT, Scale Factor 1.15, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog
Num Simulations1000
Start Time2012/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1325376000000
Duration500 Years
Includes Spontaneous?true
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Trigger Ruptures60366 Trigger Ruptures
First: M7.3 at 1852/01/05 04:40:39 UTC
Last: M3.2 at 2011/12/31 19:14:44 UTC
Largest: M7.9 at 1857/01/09 16:25:39 UTC
Config Generated Withu3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --prob-model NO_ERT --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --scale-factor 1.15 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec

Table Of Contents

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous

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Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥58.5247.19410.6308.3628.2808.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.16.7465.6688.4046.6326.4986.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.25.3354.4826.6425.2465.3705.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.34.2153.5365.2204.1484.0364.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.43.3262.8064.1103.2742.9683.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.52.6192.2103.2322.5842.4202.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.62.0571.7362.5442.0302.0262.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.71.6121.3621.9721.5941.6641.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.81.2561.0641.5181.2461.2061.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.90.9630.8121.1620.9540.9341.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥60.7690.6480.9140.7640.7640.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.10.5970.5000.7100.5960.5980.6601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.20.4770.3940.5580.4760.4520.5291.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.30.3800.3120.4500.3800.3840.4201.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.40.3020.2460.3620.3020.3100.3321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.50.2360.1900.2840.2340.2280.2601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.60.1850.1500.2240.1840.1820.2051.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.70.1440.1140.1760.1420.1340.1601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.80.1140.0880.1440.1140.1100.1271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.90.0900.0700.1160.0900.0860.1001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥70.0720.0520.0920.0720.0680.0781.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.10.0550.0380.0720.0540.0560.0601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.20.0410.0280.0560.0420.0400.0451.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.30.0330.0220.0460.0320.0340.0351.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.40.0250.0160.0360.0260.0260.0271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.50.0180.0100.0260.0180.0180.0191.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.60.0138.00E-30.0200.0140.0120.0141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.79.03E-34.00E-30.0148.00E-38.00E-39.58E-31.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.86.26E-32.00E-30.0106.00E-36.00E-36.19E-30.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]0.998 (99.80%)
M≥7.93.43E-30.0008.00E-34.00E-34.00E-33.51E-30.904 (90.40%)[88.36% 92.12%]0.904 (90.40%)
M≥81.83E-30.0006.00E-32.00E-32.00E-32.03E-30.666 (66.60%)[63.57% 69.50%]0.666 (66.60%)
M≥8.18.18E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-30.363 (36.30%)[33.33% 39.38%]0.363 (36.30%)
M≥8.23.26E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0004.48E-40.158 (15.80%)[13.62% 18.24%]0.158 (15.80%)
M≥8.37.40E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-40.037 (3.70%)[2.65% 5.12%]0.037 (3.70%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)

Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

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Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥50.4180.1521.2280.3320.2108.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)0.094
M≥5.10.3310.1220.9660.2640.2146.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)0.075
M≥5.20.2620.0920.7740.2100.1485.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)0.060
M≥5.30.2080.0720.6100.1660.1164.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)0.048
M≥5.40.1640.0560.4920.1340.0903.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)0.039
M≥5.50.1290.0440.3860.1080.0762.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)0.031
M≥5.60.1020.0340.2960.0840.0562.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)0.025
M≥5.70.0800.0240.2240.0660.0521.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)0.020
M≥5.80.0630.0180.1700.0520.0401.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)0.016
M≥5.90.0480.0120.1260.0420.0441.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)0.013
M≥60.0380.0100.1040.0340.0240.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.011
M≥6.10.0306.00E-30.0760.0260.0160.6600.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.995 (99.50%)8.35E-3
M≥6.20.0244.00E-30.0620.0220.0140.5290.997 (99.70%)[99.05% 99.92%]0.991 (99.10%)6.92E-3
M≥6.30.0204.00E-30.0520.0180.0160.4200.993 (99.30%)[98.50% 99.69%]0.987 (98.70%)5.72E-3
M≥6.40.0162.00E-30.0380.0140.0100.3320.988 (98.80%)[97.85% 99.35%]0.983 (98.30%)4.51E-3
M≥6.50.0120.0000.0320.0108.00E-30.2600.973 (97.30%)[96.04% 98.18%]0.963 (96.30%)3.45E-3
M≥6.69.48E-30.0000.0268.00E-36.00E-30.2050.954 (95.40%)[93.86% 96.58%]0.945 (94.50%)2.66E-3
M≥6.77.42E-30.0000.0206.00E-36.00E-30.1600.924 (92.40%)[90.54% 93.93%]0.915 (91.50%)2.09E-3
M≥6.86.01E-30.0000.0186.00E-34.00E-30.1270.887 (88.70%)[86.53% 90.56%]0.880 (88.00%)1.68E-3
M≥6.95.04E-30.0000.0164.00E-34.00E-30.1000.847 (84.70%)[82.28% 86.84%]0.837 (83.70%)1.39E-3
M≥74.22E-30.0000.0144.00E-32.00E-30.0780.795 (79.50%)[76.84% 81.93%]0.785 (78.50%)1.15E-3
M≥7.13.27E-30.0000.0122.00E-32.00E-30.0600.722 (72.20%)[69.29% 74.94%]0.713 (71.30%)8.68E-4
M≥7.22.69E-30.0000.0102.00E-30.0000.0450.669 (66.90%)[63.87% 69.80%]0.662 (66.20%)7.18E-4
M≥7.32.22E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0350.613 (61.30%)[58.19% 64.32%]0.608 (60.80%)5.56E-4
M≥7.41.79E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0270.537 (53.70%)[50.55% 56.82%]0.533 (53.30%)4.24E-4
M≥7.51.31E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0190.429 (42.90%)[39.82% 46.04%]0.429 (42.90%)3.04E-4
M≥7.61.04E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0140.373 (37.30%)[34.31% 40.39%]0.373 (37.30%)2.46E-4
M≥7.77.52E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0009.58E-30.288 (28.80%)[26.03% 31.73%]0.288 (28.80%)1.74E-4
M≥7.85.40E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0006.19E-30.223 (22.30%)[19.78% 25.04%]0.223 (22.30%)1.16E-4
M≥7.92.88E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0003.51E-30.134 (13.40%)[11.38% 15.71%]0.134 (13.40%)5.00E-5
M≥81.40E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0002.03E-30.067 (6.70%)[5.27% 8.48%]0.067 (6.70%)2.20E-5
M≥8.15.80E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-30.029 (2.90%)[1.99% 4.19%]0.029 (2.90%)8.00E-6
M≥8.23.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.48E-40.015 (1.50%)[0.87% 2.52%]0.015 (1.50%)4.00E-6
M≥8.36.00E-60.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-43.00E-3 (0.30%)[0.08% 0.95%]3.00E-3 (0.30%)2.00E-6
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Long Term Rate Variability

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162 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.5282558.2283958.2592591.53821926.4320997.24691349.71604912.6049385
5.16.7496.50617276.1851851.21306485.07407435.72222237.67901239.876543
5.25.3372125.1481484.66666650.954461164.01851844.52469166.0802477.796296
5.34.21630054.07407433.75925920.746301833.17283943.5802474.80246936.0987654
5.43.3271093.22222232.97530870.584113062.5061732.82716063.79012354.8024693
5.52.61984972.54320982.44444440.4526151.9629632.2283952.98148163.7407408
5.62.05781082.01.93827160.347105471.54938271.75308642.3456792.9074075
5.71.61249791.56790131.5370370.266879981.20370381.37654321.83333342.2469137
5.81.25654111.22839511.19753090.202610780.94444441.0740741.43209871.7407408
5.90.96393010.94444440.94444440.152781220.709876540.820987641.09876541.3148148
6.00.769172850.75925930.753086450.118803370.567901250.6543210.87654321.0432099
6.10.59760080.59259260.56172840.093694220.432098780.506172840.68518520.80246913
6.20.476989720.46913580.456790120.075352690.345679010.40740740.54938270.6419753
6.30.380133750.376543220.364197520.062225570.271604930.320987640.43827160.5185185
6.40.302016470.29629630.29629630.0522143240.209876540.253086420.351851850.41358024
6.50.235866250.23456790.228395060.043900460.160493820.191358030.27777780.3271605
6.60.185641970.185185180.185185180.036843730.117283950.148148150.222222220.2654321
6.70.143940330.141975310.154320990.0309203170.0864197540.111111110.172839510.20987654
6.80.114267490.111111110.111111110.026477480.067901230.0864197540.141975310.17283951
6.90.090413580.0864197540.0864197540.0225786380.0493827160.067901230.111111110.13580246
7.00.071623460.067901230.0740740750.0194570720.0370370370.0555555560.092592590.11111111
7.10.0549423880.0555555560.0555555560.016739060.0246913580.0370370370.0740740750.09259259
7.20.041430040.0432098770.0370370370.0141112030.0185185190.0246913580.0555555560.074074075
7.30.0326502060.0308641980.0308641980.0122022830.0123456790.0185185190.0432098770.061728396
7.40.0253827160.0246913580.0246913580.0106764360.00617283960.0123456790.0370370370.049382716
7.50.0180493840.0185185190.0123456790.0087243810.00617283960.0123456790.0246913580.037037037
7.60.0132345680.0123456790.0123456790.0069781230.00.00617283960.0185185190.030864198
7.70.0090699590.00617283960.00617283960.005647590.00.00617283960.0123456790.018518519
7.80.00629012330.00617283960.00617283960.00463020150.00.00.0123456790.018518519
7.90.00344650210.00617283960.00.00374766720.00.00.00617283960.012345679
8.00.0018456790.00.00.00295351070.00.00.00617283960.0061728396
8.18.2304527E-40.00.00.0021164430.00.00.00.0061728396
8.23.292181E-40.00.00.00138702060.00.00.00.0061728396
8.37.407407E-50.00.06.7213125E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

80 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.5274528.08756.9252.13265975.956.82510.113.8
5.16.7481336.45.51251.68233544.68755.48.010.825
5.25.3367735.0754.71.32289873.6754.26256.31258.5875
5.34.2161254.0253.71.03631222.88753.36254.98756.7625
5.43.3269983.1752.850.81080942.26252.66253.955.325
5.52.62006882.51252.21250.628905061.7752.08753.11254.1625
5.62.0579751.9751.76250.484217941.38751.652.453.25
5.71.61264371.551.40.372412171.08751.28751.9252.5125
5.81.25670841.21251.08750.284233060.83751.01.51.9375
5.90.964143750.93750.90.215527280.6250.76251.151.4625
6.00.769443750.750.76250.16878360.50.61250.9251.15
6.10.59787290.58750.5250.134260830.3750.4750.7250.9
6.20.477220830.46250.48750.109151870.28750.3750.58750.725
6.30.380306240.3750.3750.0909815950.2250.28750.46250.575
6.40.302206250.30.30.077717790.1750.2250.3750.475
6.50.23601250.23750.23750.065294010.1250.1750.30.375
6.60.185768750.1750.1750.055146090.08750.13750.23750.3
6.70.144002080.13750.1250.0470603440.06250.10.18750.25
6.80.114318750.11250.11250.0407149570.050.0750.150.2
6.90.0904291640.08750.08750.0351968150.0250.050.1250.1625
7.00.071668750.0750.06250.0306308960.0250.03750.10.1375
7.10.0549833330.050.050.0263195450.01250.0250.0750.1125
7.20.041468750.03750.03750.0222100320.00.0250.06250.0875
7.30.0326895830.0250.0250.0192410830.00.01250.050.075
7.40.02540.0250.0250.016765740.00.01250.03750.0625
7.50.018081250.01250.01250.0138357430.00.00.0250.05
7.60.013268750.01250.01250.0113792420.00.00.0250.0375
7.70.00908958350.01250.00.0092960170.00.00.01250.025
7.80.006293750.00.00.0076170150.00.00.01250.025
7.90.00343750.00.00.00586801440.00.00.01250.0125
8.00.00183333330.00.00.00445735970.00.00.00.0125
8.18.145833E-40.00.00.00308524650.00.00.00.0125
8.23.2291666E-40.00.00.00198297340.00.00.00.0125
8.37.2916664E-50.00.09.5191464E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

28 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.5307217.6785717.3214293.48253135.1071436.10714310.60714217.142857
5.16.7512296.0714295.752.7487324.04.8214298.42857213.5
5.25.339344.8214294.5714292.16006333.1071433.82142856.67857110.642858
5.34.21815543.82142853.3928571.69509122.3928573.05.2857148.392858
5.43.32857783.03571442.751.3286911.85714282.3571434.1785716.5
5.52.621252.3928572.21428561.03402321.42857151.82142853.32142855.142857
5.62.0589791.89285721.60714280.799851061.10714281.42857152.6071434.0
5.71.61349791.51.39285720.616794050.857142871.10714282.07142853.0714285
5.81.25742651.17857151.03571430.472866420.642857130.857142871.60714282.392857
5.90.96474160.892857130.785714270.358390480.46428570.642857131.251.8214285
6.00.76995380.714285730.67857140.283568020.357142870.51.01.4285715
6.10.59828990.57142860.57142860.227206960.250.392857130.82142861.1428572
6.20.477594520.46428570.392857130.187474740.178571430.28571430.642857130.89285713
6.30.380573540.357142870.321428570.158081130.142857150.214285720.535714270.75
6.40.30247480.28571430.250.135301770.0714285750.178571430.428571430.60714287
6.50.236275210.214285720.214285720.114489840.0714285750.142857150.357142870.5
6.60.185949580.178571430.142857150.0975473750.0357142870.107142860.28571430.39285713
6.70.144117650.142857150.107142860.08317980.00.0714285750.214285720.32142857
6.80.114430670.107142860.0714285750.072043110.00.0357142870.178571430.2857143
6.90.09048530.0714285750.0714285750.0625637840.00.0357142870.142857150.25
7.00.071726890.0714285750.0357142870.05462330.00.0357142870.107142860.21428572
7.10.055048320.0357142870.0357142870.0474000870.00.00.107142860.17857143
7.20.0415105040.0357142870.0357142870.040487010.00.00.0714285750.14285715
7.30.032726890.0357142870.00.0355131440.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.40.0254201680.0357142870.00.0309751070.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.50.0181092430.00.00.0256826860.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.60.0132920160.00.00.021554670.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.70.0090966380.00.00.0176141520.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.80.0063025210.00.00.0144854430.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.90.00343907550.00.00.0107470310.00.00.00.035714287
8.00.00183403360.00.00.0079112390.00.00.00.035714287
8.18.172269E-40.00.00.0053403010.00.00.00.0
8.23.2563024E-40.00.00.00339464540.00.00.00.0
8.37.352941E-50.00.00.00161884030.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Variability Duration Dependence

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Duration Dependence Plot

Download CSV Here

Duration (years)MeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
1.08.5244986.05.014.147621.03.012.029.0
4.08.5244986.755.758.109453.254.7511.024.5
8.08.5253257.1256.1256.11415774.05.2510.87522.0
12.08.5281897.33333356.05.1241964.33333355.583333510.83333320.25
16.08.5253257.43756.54.5411384.6255.7510.7519.1875
20.08.5244987.556.454.1036174.85.910.718.4
24.08.5274527.6256.6253.71919975.06.010.62517.875
28.08.5307217.6785717.3214293.48253135.1071436.10714310.60714217.142857
32.08.5274527.718757.53.2705485.218756.2187510.5937516.65625
36.08.5273097.77777777.1111113.08757355.27777776.305555310.47222216.38889
40.08.5274527.8256.8752.9476185.46.37510.4516.05
44.08.5301477.88636357.0681822.84821585.45454556.40909110.36363615.727273
48.08.5274527.91666656.81252.71778375.54166656.479166510.35416715.375
52.08.5273097.9230777.5192312.59770185.59615376.538461710.32692315.076923
56.08.5389337.9821437.52.5268195.6607146.58928610.33928614.767858
60.08.5274527.9833337.18333342.44937925.66666656.63333310.2514.5
64.08.5389338.08.0468752.37052425.7343756.687510.2187514.265625
68.08.5307218.0294116.8676472.28674675.80882366.72058810.147058514.264706
72.08.5497238.0555557.1111112.26159055.90277776.777777710.19444513.986111
76.08.5320068.0789477.47368432.18831285.8815796.789473510.11842113.894737
80.08.5274528.08756.9252.13265975.956.82510.113.8
84.08.553968.1309537.80952362.09209566.06.84523810.13095313.702381
88.08.5461168.1477277.48863652.04849226.06.897727510.06818213.613636
92.08.5284678.1195657.8695652.00862726.0217396.891304510.04347813.423913
96.08.5274528.1258.1770831.96768986.07291656.916666510.013.416667
100.08.5244988.137.691.9559926.136.9410.0113.27
200.08.5608258.2957.5451.38769386.687.379.6212.18
300.08.6090638.448.1666671.13916926.99666647.6166679.62333311.283334
400.08.5608258.377.96250.978550267.11257.7059.4610.845
500.08.5244988.3628.280.914618137.1947.79.35210.63

Simulation Stationarity

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Stationarity Plot

Moment Rate Plot

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 313 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0500581.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0051180.705 (70.50%)[67.55% 73.29%]0.0015680.047238618
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0335581.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0017040.462 (46.20%)[43.08% 49.35%]4.78E-40.03419009
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0245241.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0026920.405 (40.50%)[37.45% 43.62%]6.38E-40.016211301
Mendocino0.020551.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0015180.422 (42.20%)[39.13% 45.34%]5.16E-40.028919645
Cerro Prieto0.0159281.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0010480.259 (25.90%)[23.23% 28.76%]3.06E-40.015186971
Imperial0.0133661.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]9.52E-40.305 (30.50%)[27.68% 33.47%]3.66E-40.014349225
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0123821.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]7.62E-40.264 (26.40%)[23.71% 29.27%]2.68E-40.013392845
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0114621.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]7.56E-40.221 (22.10%)[19.59% 24.83%]2.28E-40.009440966
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0105641.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0013080.302 (30.20%)[27.39% 33.17%]3.86E-40.008909097
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev0.0102080.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]4.74E-40.117 (11.70%)[9.81% 13.89%]1.52E-40.008455746

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 306 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
Cerro Prieto0.0136481.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]9.04E-40.248 (24.80%)[22.18% 27.62%]2.78E-40.013091409
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0131581.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.54E-40.300 (30.00%)[27.19% 32.96%]2.24E-40.012216282
Mendocino0.0106561.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]9.56E-40.325 (32.50%)[29.62% 35.52%]3.06E-40.012516479
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0098741.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.28E-40.200 (20.00%)[17.59% 22.64%]1.84E-40.008140643
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0095541.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0010060.274 (27.40%)[24.68% 30.30%]2.0E-40.0067372364
Imperial0.0092841.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.88E-40.209 (20.90%)[18.45% 23.58%]1.96E-40.0096799815
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0088641.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.66E-40.205 (20.50%)[18.07% 23.16%]1.78E-40.009075132
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0084981.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]7.28E-40.237 (23.70%)[21.12% 26.48%]1.46E-40.0067538084
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0080641.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.64E-40.239 (23.90%)[21.31% 26.69%]2.18E-40.00821497
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.007730.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]8.7E-40.250 (25.00%)[22.37% 27.83%]2.44E-40.006658823

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 272 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0083940.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]6.44E-40.244 (24.40%)[21.79% 27.21%]1.7E-40.007612852
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0069741.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]7.58E-40.272 (27.20%)[24.48% 30.09%]1.62E-40.005722108
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0068981.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]7.52E-40.266 (26.60%)[23.91% 29.48%]1.62E-40.0057427646
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0067421.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.74E-40.230 (23.00%)[20.45% 25.76%]1.34E-40.0052993274
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0062460.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]4.4E-40.176 (17.60%)[15.32% 20.14%]1.38E-40.0062776324
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0058821.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.12E-40.235 (23.50%)[20.93% 26.28%]1.3E-40.0051040766
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0058180.994 (99.40%)[98.63% 99.76%]5.22E-40.197 (19.70%)[17.31% 22.33%]1.06E-40.004749499
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0056060.987 (98.70%)[97.73% 99.28%]5.9E-40.233 (23.30%)[20.74% 26.07%]1.2E-40.004465195
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0055821.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.88E-40.186 (18.60%)[16.26% 21.18%]1.3E-40.005556243
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0054761.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.86E-40.223 (22.30%)[19.78% 25.04%]1.22E-40.0045623486

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 211 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0057061.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.96E-40.234 (23.40%)[20.83% 26.17%]1.28E-40.0049894005
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.005261.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.62E-40.222 (22.20%)[19.69% 24.93%]1.2E-40.0044245115
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0051360.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]5.26E-40.209 (20.90%)[18.45% 23.58%]1.08E-40.0045267143
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0048740.997 (99.70%)[99.05% 99.92%]5.16E-40.205 (20.50%)[18.07% 23.16%]1.04E-40.004201805
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0046520.990 (99.00%)[98.10% 99.49%]4.88E-40.198 (19.80%)[17.40% 22.44%]9.6E-50.0040264158
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0042520.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]3.48E-40.146 (14.60%)[12.50% 16.98%]9.2E-50.0045710644
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0041660.962 (96.20%)[94.77% 97.26%]4.04E-40.169 (16.90%)[14.66% 19.40%]8.4E-50.0037959707
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0039180.928 (92.80%)[90.97% 94.29%]3.36E-40.149 (14.90%)[12.78% 17.29%]7.4E-50.0038110747
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0036460.930 (93.00%)[91.19% 94.47%]3.72E-40.164 (16.40%)[14.19% 18.88%]7.0E-50.0032088608
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM0.0034880.982 (98.20%)[97.11% 98.90%]2.62E-40.116 (11.60%)[9.71% 13.79%]6.4E-50.0035515025

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 63 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0016360.623 (62.30%)[59.20% 65.30%]1.26E-40.060 (6.00%)[4.65% 7.70%]2.0E-50.0018098651
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0016180.619 (61.90%)[58.80% 64.91%]1.28E-40.061 (6.10%)[4.73% 7.81%]2.2E-50.0017508415
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0016140.619 (61.90%)[58.80% 64.91%]1.26E-40.060 (6.00%)[4.65% 7.70%]2.2E-50.0017453934
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0015960.612 (61.20%)[58.09% 64.22%]1.26E-40.060 (6.00%)[4.65% 7.70%]2.2E-50.0017193216
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0015920.612 (61.20%)[58.09% 64.22%]1.24E-40.060 (6.00%)[4.65% 7.70%]1.8E-50.0017636013
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0015340.596 (59.60%)[56.48% 62.65%]1.1E-40.054 (5.40%)[4.12% 7.04%]1.8E-50.0016807786
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0013980.560 (56.00%)[52.86% 59.10%]1.08E-40.051 (5.10%)[3.86% 6.70%]2.0E-50.0015122787
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0012380.512 (51.20%)[48.05% 54.34%]9.2E-50.045 (4.50%)[3.34% 6.02%]1.4E-50.0014250289
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM8.64E-40.385 (38.50%)[35.48% 41.61%]6.4E-50.032 (3.20%)[2.23% 4.54%]8.0E-60.0010319632
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM7.66E-40.353 (35.30%)[32.35% 38.36%]5.4E-50.027 (2.70%)[1.82% 3.96%]8.0E-69.2652056E-4

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 1000,
  "duration": 500.0,
  "startYear": 2012,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 1615599280080,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_triggered_descendants",
      "descendantsOnly": true
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV\u003d1.5, NoERT, Scale Factor 1.15, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2021_03_12-Start2012_500yr_kCOV1p5_NoERT_ScaleFactor1p15_Spontaneous_HistoricalCatalog",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "NO_ERT",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.15,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "etas_k_cov": 1.5,
  "maxPointSourceMag": 10.0,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --prob-model NO_ERT --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --scale-factor 1.15 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec",
  "configTime": 1615599280080
}