Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, MaxPtSrcM=6, Scale Factor 1.3, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog Results

Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, MaxPtSrcM=6, Scale Factor 1.3, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog
Num Simulations1000
Start Time2012/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1325376000000
Duration500 Years
Includes Spontaneous?true
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Trigger Ruptures60366 Trigger Ruptures
First: M7.3 at 1852/01/05 04:40:39 UTC
Last: M3.2 at 2011/12/31 19:14:44 UTC
Largest: M7.9 at 1857/01/09 16:25:39 UTC
Config Generated Withu3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --max-point-src-mag 6 --scale-factor 1.3 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec

Table Of Contents

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous

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Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥58.7257.44010.8928.6008.4608.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.16.9015.8688.5826.8147.0906.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.25.4534.6486.7545.3805.6725.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.34.2993.6645.2764.2464.4184.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.43.3832.8864.1403.3443.3683.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.52.6532.2623.2442.6222.7062.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.62.0751.7642.5282.0542.1282.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.71.6161.3761.9621.6021.5981.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.81.2501.0661.5101.2401.2481.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.90.9490.8061.1340.9420.9681.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥60.7490.6380.8920.7420.7420.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.10.5760.4860.6780.5740.5680.6601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.20.4540.3840.5280.4540.4480.5291.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.30.3570.2980.4240.3560.3640.4201.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.40.2800.2300.3340.2780.2780.3321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.50.2160.1740.2600.2140.2220.2601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.60.1680.1320.2040.1680.1780.2051.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.70.1290.1000.1580.1280.1320.1601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.80.1020.0780.1300.1020.1000.1271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.90.0800.0600.1020.0780.0780.1001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥70.0620.0440.0820.0620.0600.0781.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.10.0470.0320.0640.0460.0460.0601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.20.0360.0240.0500.0360.0360.0451.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.30.0280.0180.0400.0280.0280.0351.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.40.0220.0120.0320.0220.0200.0271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.50.0158.00E-30.0240.0160.0160.0191.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.60.0126.00E-30.0200.0120.0100.0141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.78.18E-34.00E-30.0148.00E-38.00E-39.58E-30.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.999 (99.90%)
M≥7.85.69E-32.00E-30.0106.00E-36.00E-36.19E-30.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]0.996 (99.60%)
M≥7.93.17E-30.0008.00E-34.00E-32.00E-33.51E-30.881 (88.10%)[85.89% 90.01%]0.881 (88.10%)
M≥81.71E-30.0004.00E-32.00E-32.00E-32.03E-30.636 (63.60%)[60.52% 66.57%]0.636 (63.60%)
M≥8.17.92E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-30.349 (34.90%)[31.96% 37.96%]0.349 (34.90%)
M≥8.23.26E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0004.48E-40.156 (15.60%)[13.44% 18.03%]0.156 (15.60%)
M≥8.36.80E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-40.034 (3.40%)[2.40% 4.77%]0.034 (3.40%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)

Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

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Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥50.3530.1421.0100.2800.2448.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.996 (99.60%)0.094
M≥5.10.2790.1140.7960.2220.1866.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.996 (99.60%)0.075
M≥5.20.2210.0860.6060.1760.1525.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.996 (99.60%)0.059
M≥5.30.1740.0660.4860.1400.0964.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.996 (99.60%)0.047
M≥5.40.1370.0520.3780.1100.0843.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.996 (99.60%)0.038
M≥5.50.1070.0400.2960.0860.0682.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.996 (99.60%)0.030
M≥5.60.0840.0280.2260.0680.0702.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.996 (99.60%)0.024
M≥5.70.0650.0220.1740.0540.0521.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.996 (99.60%)0.019
M≥5.80.0510.0160.1340.0420.0321.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.996 (99.60%)0.015
M≥5.90.0380.0100.1020.0320.0241.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.012
M≥60.0306.00E-30.0800.0260.0200.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)9.74E-3
M≥6.10.0224.00E-30.0540.0200.0160.6600.997 (99.70%)[99.05% 99.92%]0.989 (98.90%)7.60E-3
M≥6.20.0184.00E-30.0460.0160.0160.5290.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]0.985 (98.50%)6.31E-3
M≥6.30.0142.00E-30.0360.0120.0140.4200.988 (98.80%)[97.85% 99.35%]0.975 (97.50%)5.30E-3
M≥6.40.0110.0000.0280.0100.0100.3320.974 (97.40%)[96.16% 98.26%]0.954 (95.40%)4.19E-3
M≥6.58.65E-30.0000.0248.00E-34.00E-30.2600.955 (95.50%)[93.98% 96.66%]0.934 (93.40%)3.35E-3
M≥6.66.78E-30.0000.0186.00E-34.00E-30.2050.926 (92.60%)[90.75% 94.11%]0.900 (90.00%)2.62E-3
M≥6.75.27E-30.0000.0164.00E-32.00E-30.1600.881 (88.10%)[85.89% 90.01%]0.851 (85.10%)2.05E-3
M≥6.84.29E-30.0000.0144.00E-32.00E-30.1270.819 (81.90%)[79.34% 84.21%]0.787 (78.70%)1.70E-3
M≥6.93.48E-30.0000.0122.00E-32.00E-30.1000.757 (75.70%)[72.89% 78.30%]0.728 (72.80%)1.40E-3
M≥72.86E-30.0000.0102.00E-32.00E-30.0780.695 (69.50%)[66.53% 72.32%]0.674 (67.40%)1.17E-3
M≥7.12.20E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0600.605 (60.50%)[57.38% 63.53%]0.590 (59.00%)9.20E-4
M≥7.21.73E-30.0006.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0450.528 (52.80%)[49.65% 55.93%]0.519 (51.90%)7.30E-4
M≥7.31.43E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0350.481 (48.10%)[44.97% 51.25%]0.475 (47.50%)6.22E-4
M≥7.41.13E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0270.410 (41.00%)[37.94% 44.13%]0.408 (40.80%)5.02E-4
M≥7.58.76E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0190.341 (34.10%)[31.18% 37.14%]0.340 (34.00%)3.68E-4
M≥7.66.80E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0140.285 (28.50%)[25.74% 31.43%]0.285 (28.50%)2.88E-4
M≥7.75.14E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0009.58E-30.230 (23.00%)[20.45% 25.76%]0.230 (23.00%)2.28E-4
M≥7.83.88E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0006.19E-30.174 (17.40%)[15.13% 19.93%]0.174 (17.40%)1.62E-4
M≥7.92.16E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0003.51E-30.101 (10.10%)[8.34% 12.18%]0.101 (10.10%)9.00E-5
M≥81.30E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0002.03E-30.063 (6.30%)[4.91% 8.03%]0.063 (6.30%)5.40E-5
M≥8.14.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-30.019 (1.90%)[1.18% 3.01%]0.019 (1.90%)1.60E-5
M≥8.21.40E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.48E-46.00E-3 (0.60%)[0.24% 1.37%]6.00E-3 (0.60%)6.00E-6
M≥8.32.00E-60.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-41.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.01% 0.65%]1.00E-3 (0.10%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Long Term Rate Variability

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162 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.7347318.456798.4938271.47726996.82098777.52469169.82716112.08642
5.16.90770776.67901236.51851841.15966875.3827165.956797.7839519.549383
5.25.45802455.2839515.1481480.91014534.24691344.70987656.1481487.5308642
5.34.30294664.17901234.16666650.713650353.32716063.70987654.8456795.9382715
5.43.3860743.29012353.2283950.556308872.61111122.9197533.82098774.6358023
5.52.65634162.58641982.45061730.4308322.03703712.29012352.9938273.617284
5.62.07777172.02469132.0061730.332623181.59259261.79012352.35802462.8333333
5.71.61785191.58024691.48765430.255257841.23456791.39506171.82716052.1851852
5.81.25204111.22222221.16049390.192943650.956790151.08024691.41975311.6851852
5.90.95004120.932098750.913580240.143783170.72222220.81481481.08024691.2716049
6.00.749720160.74074070.73456790.112300210.56172840.64814810.85185191.0
6.10.576744850.57407410.54938270.0882241350.425925940.493827160.660493850.7654321
6.20.45460080.450617280.450617280.07048080.32716050.38888890.524691340.6111111
6.30.35763990.351851850.345679010.0578619730.253086420.302469130.413580240.48765433
6.40.28016050.27777780.26543210.0475745350.191358030.23456790.32716050.37654322
6.50.21606790.216049390.222222220.0402661230.141975310.179012340.253086420.30246913
6.60.168183130.166666670.160493820.0339101780.104938270.135802460.20370370.24074075
6.70.129561720.129629630.123456790.0282458590.0740740750.098765430.154320990.18518518
6.80.102489710.098765430.098765430.0242485940.0555555560.080246910.123456790.15432099
6.90.0797839540.080246910.0740740750.0209646820.0432098770.0617283960.098765430.12345679
7.00.0622386820.0617283960.0555555560.018004350.0308641980.0432098770.080246910.09876543
7.10.047345680.0493827160.0493827160.0156605730.0185185190.0308641980.0617283960.08024691
7.20.0356502050.0370370370.0308641980.0130023770.0123456790.0246913580.0493827160.061728396
7.30.0281707810.0246913580.0246913580.0110789660.00617283960.0185185190.0370370370.049382716
7.40.0215967070.0185185190.0185185190.0097796130.00617283960.0123456790.0308641980.043209877
7.50.0154732510.0123456790.0123456790.0080309150.00.00617283960.0246913580.030864198
7.60.0116090530.0123456790.0123456790.00668006440.00.00617283960.0185185190.024691358
7.70.0081831270.00617283960.00617283960.0054898070.00.00.0123456790.018518519
7.80.00567695450.00617283960.00617283960.0044848980.00.00.0123456790.012345679
7.90.00315637860.00.00.00363728990.00.00.00617283960.012345679
8.00.00169753090.00.00.00289997570.00.00.00617283960.0061728396
8.17.839506E-40.00.00.00207384440.00.00.00.0061728396
8.23.2510288E-40.00.00.00137880970.00.00.00.0061728396
8.36.790124E-50.00.06.438423E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

80 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.7370048.37.152.09052926.36257.1510.112513.6125
5.16.9096926.5756.31.64072545.03755.658.037510.7
5.25.45978985.24.751.28737063.954.46256.358.4375
5.34.30457074.11253.93751.0065923.13.51255.01256.625
5.43.3873733.23753.0250.78155112.4252.76253.96255.1875
5.52.65739582.552.350.604171.88752.1753.11254.0375
5.62.07856252.01.81250.466341441.451.68752.43753.1625
5.71.61851451.56251.61250.357014541.1251.31251.92.45
5.81.25261661.21251.150.269802540.86251.01251.4751.875
5.90.950479150.9250.9250.20174080.63750.76251.1251.4
6.00.75010210.73750.68750.158136670.50.60.88751.1125
6.10.577245830.56250.56250.1246000160.3750.46250.68750.85
6.20.454993750.450.41250.100542720.28750.36250.550.675
6.30.357958350.350.33750.08317870.21250.2750.43750.5375
6.40.28043960.2750.26250.069530190.16250.21250.350.425
6.50.216231260.21250.21250.0585782940.11250.16250.2750.3375
6.60.168291670.16250.16250.049613070.0750.1250.21250.275
6.70.129618750.1250.1250.04207750.050.08750.1750.225
6.80.102535420.10.10.036394880.03750.06250.13750.175
6.90.079806250.0750.0750.031367260.0250.050.11250.15
7.00.062256250.06250.06250.027315060.01250.03750.08750.125
7.10.0473770830.050.050.0237405780.01250.0250.0750.1
7.20.0356895850.03750.0250.0200488590.00.01250.050.075
7.30.0281958340.0250.0250.0174103420.00.01250.050.0625
7.40.0216145830.0250.01250.0152282080.00.01250.03750.05
7.50.0154729170.01250.01250.0125577950.00.00.0250.0375
7.60.0116083330.01250.01250.0106891080.00.00.0250.0375
7.70.0081895830.01250.00.0089056690.00.00.01250.025
7.80.0056833330.00.00.00735921550.00.00.01250.025
7.90.003156250.00.00.00566067970.00.00.01250.0125
8.00.00168958330.00.00.0043222410.00.00.00.0125
8.17.7708333E-40.00.00.0030268410.00.00.00.0125
8.23.2291666E-40.00.00.00198297340.00.00.00.0125
8.36.875E-50.00.09.24472E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

28 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.7379287.9642867.253.34753565.5714296.53571410.57142816.464285
5.16.91040756.3214295.6071432.63128074.3571435.1428578.39285813.0
5.25.4605655.04.6071432.07040333.3571434.0714296.64285710.214286
5.34.30534273.96428563.6428571.62186992.6071433.17857155.258.035714
5.43.38811143.1428572.82142851.26431182.02.54.1785716.285714
5.52.65815332.46428562.17857150.98050651.53571431.92857153.28571444.928571
5.62.07904621.92857151.85714280.75793491.17857151.52.57142853.8214285
5.71.61904621.53571431.42857150.582767960.892857131.17857152.03571442.9642856
5.81.25297061.17857151.07142850.443405930.67857140.892857131.57142852.25
5.90.950682760.892857130.82142860.333372030.46428570.67857141.21428571.7142857
6.00.75030250.714285730.642857130.263470050.357142870.50.964285731.3571428
6.10.577336130.535714270.50.209890650.250.392857130.751.0357143
6.20.455102950.428571430.392857130.171238770.178571430.28571430.607142870.85714287
6.30.358037830.357142870.321428570.143163350.107142860.214285720.50.6785714
6.40.280474780.250.250.121536690.0714285750.178571430.392857130.53571427
6.50.216212180.214285720.178571430.102780060.0357142870.107142860.321428570.4642857
6.60.168287810.142857150.142857150.087944350.0357142870.0714285750.250.35714287
6.70.129613440.107142860.107142860.074981150.00.0714285750.214285720.2857143
6.80.1025336160.107142860.0714285750.065116510.00.0357142870.178571430.25
6.90.07974790.0714285750.0714285750.0561785440.00.0357142870.142857150.21428572
7.00.0621890760.0714285750.0357142870.048959930.00.00.107142860.17857143
7.10.0473592430.0357142870.0357142870.0422858070.00.00.0714285750.14285715
7.20.035670170.0357142870.00.0361517070.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.30.0281617640.0357142870.00.03163080.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.40.0215819330.00.00.027646650.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.50.0154474790.00.00.0230555520.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.60.0115945380.00.00.0197585840.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.70.0081806720.00.00.0164988560.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.80.00569327730.00.00.01378316150.00.00.00.035714287
7.90.00315966390.00.00.0103035420.00.00.00.035714287
8.00.0016974790.00.00.00763826260.00.00.00.035714287
8.17.7941176E-40.00.00.0052181080.00.00.00.0
8.23.2563024E-40.00.00.00339464540.00.00.00.0
8.36.932773E-50.00.00.0015720.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Variability Duration Dependence

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Duration Dependence Plot

Download CSV Here

Duration (years)MeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
1.08.7254587.05.013.2588931.04.012.027.0
4.08.7254587.256.257.59736443.55.011.023.25
8.08.7262177.57.1255.6981354.3755.62510.87520.625
12.08.7315467.66666656.754.76986464.83333356.010.83333319.416666
16.08.7262177.757.06254.2306955.06256.187510.7518.375
20.08.7254587.857.153.88813145.256.3510.6517.45
24.08.7370047.91666656.91666653.59445795.41666656.458333510.58333317.0
28.08.7379287.9642867.253.34753565.5714296.53571410.57142816.464285
32.08.7370048.031257.906253.1511445.68756.62510.516.15625
36.08.74261958.0833337.3888893.00147035.756.694444710.44444515.777778
40.08.7370048.17.6752.86639575.856.77510.415.375
44.08.7356968.1136367.5909092.74247075.88636356.81818210.40909115.136364
48.08.7370048.1458337.52083352.6443976.06.854166510.41666714.916667
52.08.74261958.1538466.9230772.5350966.0192316.92307710.38461514.865385
56.08.7542548.2142867.52.47148136.0714296.96428610.32142814.767858
60.08.7370048.2166667.58333352.41075526.1333336.966666710.314.366667
64.08.7542548.257.6252.35252796.1718757.01562510.312514.25
68.08.7379288.2647067.4705882.24205926.2205887.058823610.22058914.235294
72.08.7618598.2916677.68055532.20435076.2638897.11111110.20833313.958333
76.08.7470968.3026317.77631572.15847026.28947357.13157910.15789513.881579
80.08.7370048.37.152.09052926.36257.1510.112513.6125
84.08.7669648.3571428.1666672.04176456.44047647.190476410.16666713.464286
88.08.7598468.3758.0227272.0193946.42045457.19318210.13636413.477273
92.08.7469288.3369578.510871.96933646.43478257.239130510.08695713.347826
96.08.7370048.343757.8751.9211666.44791657.260416510.08333313.291667
100.08.7254588.358.131.88706236.487.2610.0413.13
200.08.7753128.529.031.35667287.07.649.7911.95
300.08.8301968.6333338.4733331.10432337.2333337.83666669.73666711.593333
400.08.7753128.64758.190.965431457.47.91759.542510.995
500.08.7254588.68.460.87831987.447.9529.41610.892

Simulation Stationarity

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Stationarity Plot

Moment Rate Plot

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 313 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0455221.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0039920.687 (68.70%)[65.71% 71.55%]0.0016080.047238618
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0304061.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0010520.354 (35.40%)[32.45% 38.47%]4.0E-40.03419009
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0201081.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0017120.356 (35.60%)[32.64% 38.67%]6.08E-40.016211301
Mendocino0.0197681.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0010580.376 (37.60%)[34.60% 40.69%]5.08E-40.028919645
Cerro Prieto0.0143261.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]7.24E-40.231 (23.10%)[20.55% 25.86%]2.72E-40.015186971
Imperial0.012421.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]7.0E-40.267 (26.70%)[24.00% 29.58%]3.46E-40.014349225
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0116381.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.94E-40.234 (23.40%)[20.83% 26.17%]2.94E-40.013392845
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.010131.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.22E-40.225 (22.50%)[19.97% 25.24%]2.94E-40.009440966
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0089341.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.66E-40.280 (28.00%)[25.26% 30.91%]3.86E-40.008909097
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev0.0086260.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]2.58E-40.081 (8.10%)[6.52% 10.01%]7.2E-50.008455746

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 306 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
Cerro Prieto0.012321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.26E-40.210 (21.00%)[18.54% 23.69%]2.42E-40.013091409
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0117841.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.58E-40.231 (23.10%)[20.55% 25.86%]2.48E-40.012216282
Mendocino0.009961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.5E-40.262 (26.20%)[23.52% 29.06%]3.08E-40.012516479
Imperial0.0086261.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.52E-40.195 (19.50%)[17.12% 22.12%]2.22E-40.0096799815
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0085181.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.96E-40.192 (19.20%)[16.83% 21.81%]2.34E-40.008140643
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0082020.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]4.26E-40.184 (18.40%)[16.07% 20.97%]2.1E-40.009075132
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0074060.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]4.96E-40.200 (20.00%)[17.59% 22.64%]2.4E-40.00821497
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.007381.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.56E-40.204 (20.40%)[17.97% 23.06%]2.16E-40.0067372364
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0071320.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]4.42E-40.164 (16.40%)[14.19% 18.88%]1.44E-40.0067538084
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0064741.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.88E-40.227 (22.70%)[20.16% 25.45%]2.66E-40.006658823

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 273 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.007360.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]4.34E-40.194 (19.40%)[17.02% 22.02%]1.98E-40.007612852
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0059481.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.8E-40.185 (18.50%)[16.17% 21.08%]2.22E-40.0057427646
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0059241.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.92E-40.190 (19.00%)[16.64% 21.60%]2.2E-40.005722108
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0058060.993 (99.30%)[98.50% 99.69%]3.78E-40.161 (16.10%)[13.91% 18.56%]1.64E-40.0062776324
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0054981.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.94E-40.162 (16.20%)[14.00% 18.66%]1.54E-40.0052993274
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0051461.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.68E-40.154 (15.40%)[13.25% 17.82%]1.56E-40.0051040766
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.004840.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]3.54E-40.151 (15.10%)[12.97% 17.51%]1.52E-40.0045623486
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.004820.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]3.28E-40.149 (14.90%)[12.78% 17.29%]1.44E-40.005556243
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0047640.984 (98.40%)[97.36% 99.05%]2.96E-40.128 (12.80%)[10.82% 15.07%]1.14E-40.004749499
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0045920.978 (97.80%)[96.63% 98.58%]3.36E-40.143 (14.30%)[12.22% 16.66%]1.58E-40.004465195

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 214 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0050221.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.64E-40.152 (15.20%)[13.06% 17.61%]1.52E-40.0049894005
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0046740.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]3.46E-40.148 (14.80%)[12.69% 17.19%]1.46E-40.0044245115
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0044740.997 (99.70%)[99.05% 99.92%]3.12E-40.135 (13.50%)[11.47% 15.81%]1.28E-40.0045267143
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0044140.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]3.26E-40.145 (14.50%)[12.41% 16.87%]1.4E-40.004201805
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0042340.990 (99.00%)[98.10% 99.49%]3.18E-40.142 (14.20%)[12.13% 16.55%]1.38E-40.0040264158
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0038240.992 (99.20%)[98.36% 99.63%]2.64E-40.124 (12.40%)[10.45% 14.64%]1.14E-40.0045710644
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.003710.928 (92.80%)[90.97% 94.29%]2.14E-40.099 (9.90%)[8.15% 11.96%]9.6E-50.0038110747
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0036680.951 (95.10%)[93.52% 96.32%]2.34E-40.106 (10.60%)[8.79% 12.71%]9.4E-50.0037959707
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0033180.924 (92.40%)[90.54% 93.93%]2.18E-40.101 (10.10%)[8.34% 12.18%]1.02E-40.0032088608
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM0.0031520.948 (94.80%)[93.19% 96.06%]2.1E-40.101 (10.10%)[8.34% 12.18%]8.6E-50.0035515025

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 71 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0015160.596 (59.60%)[56.48% 62.65%]1.1E-40.053 (5.30%)[4.03% 6.92%]4.6E-50.0018098651
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0015040.594 (59.40%)[56.28% 62.45%]1.1E-40.053 (5.30%)[4.03% 6.92%]4.6E-50.0017453934
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0015020.593 (59.30%)[56.17% 62.35%]1.1E-40.053 (5.30%)[4.03% 6.92%]4.6E-50.0017508415
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.001490.589 (58.90%)[55.77% 61.96%]1.1E-40.053 (5.30%)[4.03% 6.92%]4.6E-50.0017636013
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0014880.589 (58.90%)[55.77% 61.96%]1.1E-40.053 (5.30%)[4.03% 6.92%]4.6E-50.0017193216
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0014180.569 (56.90%)[53.76% 59.99%]1.06E-40.051 (5.10%)[3.86% 6.70%]4.4E-50.0016807786
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.001280.528 (52.80%)[49.65% 55.93%]7.8E-50.037 (3.70%)[2.65% 5.12%]3.8E-50.0015122787
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.001230.506 (50.60%)[47.45% 53.74%]7.6E-50.036 (3.60%)[2.57% 5.00%]3.6E-50.0014250289
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM8.46E-40.367 (36.70%)[33.72% 39.78%]4.8E-50.023 (2.30%)[1.50% 3.49%]2.2E-50.0010319632
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM7.36E-40.328 (32.80%)[29.91% 35.82%]4.4E-50.021 (2.10%)[1.34% 3.25%]1.8E-59.2652056E-4

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 1000,
  "duration": 500.0,
  "startYear": 2012,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 1615593483717,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_triggered_descendants",
      "descendantsOnly": true
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV\u003d1.5, MaxPtSrcM\u003d6, Scale Factor 1.3, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2021_03_12-Start2012_500yr_kCOV1p5_MaxPtSrcM6_ScaleFactor1p3_Spontaneous_HistoricalCatalog",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.3,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "etas_k_cov": 1.5,
  "maxPointSourceMag": 6.0,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --max-point-src-mag 6 --scale-factor 1.3 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec",
  "configTime": 1615593483717
}