Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, MaxPtSrcM=6, Scale Factor 1.3, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog Results

Table Of Contents

• Magnitude Frequency Distribution
  • Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous
  • Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events
• Long Term Rate Variability
  • 162 Year Variability
  • 80 Year Variability
  • 28 Year Variability
  • Variability Duration Dependence
• Simulation Stationarity
• Section Participation
  • Section Participation Plots
  • Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table
  • M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table
  • M≥7 Parent Sections Table
  • M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table
  • M≥8 Parent Sections Table
• Gridded Nucleation
• JSON Input File

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

(top)

Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous

(top)

Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

• Mean (thick black line): mean annual rate across all 1000 catalogs
• 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): annual rate percentiles across all 1000 catalogs
• Median (thin blue line): median annual rate across all 1000 catalogs
• Mode (thin cyan line): modal annual rate across all 1000 catalogs (scaled to annualized value)
• Fault System Solution (brown line): long-term MFD from the UCERF3 fault system solution
• 500 yr Probability (thin red line): 500 year probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
• 500 yr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
• 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
• Primary (thin green line): mean annual rate from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 1000 catalogs

Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

(top)

Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

• Mean (thick black line): mean annual rate across all 1000 catalogs
• 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): annual rate percentiles across all 1000 catalogs
• Median (thin blue line): median annual rate across all 1000 catalogs
• Mode (thin cyan line): modal annual rate across all 1000 catalogs (scaled to annualized value)
• Fault System Solution (brown line): long-term MFD from the UCERF3 fault system solution
• 500 yr Probability (thin red line): 500 year probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
• 500 yr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
• 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
• Primary (thin green line): mean annual rate from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 1000 catalogs

Long Term Rate Variability

(top)

162 Year Variability

(top)

Download CSV Here

80 Year Variability

(top)

Download CSV Here

28 Year Variability

(top)

Download CSV Here

Variability Duration Dependence

(top)

Download CSV Here

Simulation Stationarity

(top)

Section Participation

(top)

Section Participation Plots

(top)

Min Mag	Complete Catalog (including spontaneous)	Ratio WRT Long-Term Model	Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)	Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.
M≥6.5
M≥7
M≥7.5
M≥8

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 10 of 313 with matching ruptures shown

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 10 of 306 with matching ruptures shown

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 10 of 273 with matching ruptures shown

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 10 of 214 with matching ruptures shown

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 10 of 71 with matching ruptures shown

Gridded Nucleation

(top)

Min Mag	Complete Catalog (including spontaneous)	Ratio WRT Long-Term Model	Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)	Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥5
M≥6
M≥7

JSON Input File

(top)

{
  "numSimulations": 1000,
  "duration": 500.0,
  "startYear": 2012,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 1615593483717,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_triggered_descendants",
      "descendantsOnly": true
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV\u003d1.5, MaxPtSrcM\u003d6, Scale Factor 1.3, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2021_03_12-Start2012_500yr_kCOV1p5_MaxPtSrcM6_ScaleFactor1p3_Spontaneous_HistoricalCatalog",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.3,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "etas_k_cov": 1.5,
  "maxPointSourceMag": 6.0,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --max-point-src-mag 6 --scale-factor 1.3 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec",
  "configTime": 1615593483717
}