Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, MaxPtSrcM=6, Scale Factor 1.28, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog Results

Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, MaxPtSrcM=6, Scale Factor 1.28, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog
Num Simulations1000
Start Time2012/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1325376000000
Duration500 Years
Includes Spontaneous?true
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Trigger Ruptures60366 Trigger Ruptures
First: M7.3 at 1852/01/05 04:40:39 UTC
Last: M3.2 at 2011/12/31 19:14:44 UTC
Largest: M7.9 at 1857/01/09 16:25:39 UTC
Config Generated Withu3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --max-point-src-mag 6 --scale-factor 1.28 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec

Table Of Contents

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous

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Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥58.5597.32610.6248.4288.3048.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.16.7705.7988.4466.6686.1646.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.25.3484.5566.6565.2645.1825.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.34.2193.5945.2624.1604.0004.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.43.3212.8144.0823.2763.3423.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.52.6072.2223.1982.5682.4022.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.62.0411.7422.5302.0102.0142.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.71.5911.3561.9541.5661.5501.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.81.2321.0461.4901.2161.2281.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.90.9350.7921.1280.9240.9181.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥60.7400.6320.8840.7340.7120.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.10.5710.4840.6780.5680.5520.6601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.20.4500.3820.5340.4480.4500.5291.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.30.3540.2940.4260.3540.3480.4201.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.40.2770.2260.3340.2760.2820.3321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.50.2140.1720.2600.2120.2080.2601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.60.1660.1320.2060.1660.1640.2051.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.70.1290.1000.1620.1280.1280.1601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.80.1010.0780.1280.1000.1020.1271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.90.0790.0580.1000.0780.0720.1001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥70.0610.0440.0820.0600.0600.0781.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.10.0460.0320.0620.0460.0440.0601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.20.0350.0220.0500.0340.0320.0451.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.30.0280.0180.0400.0280.0300.0351.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.40.0210.0120.0320.0220.0220.0271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.50.0158.00E-30.0240.0140.0160.0191.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.60.0116.00E-30.0180.0100.0100.0141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.77.95E-34.00E-30.0148.00E-38.00E-39.58E-31.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.85.52E-32.00E-30.0106.00E-36.00E-36.19E-30.991 (99.10%)[98.23% 99.56%]0.991 (99.10%)
M≥7.93.10E-30.0006.00E-34.00E-34.00E-33.51E-30.885 (88.50%)[86.32% 90.38%]0.885 (88.50%)
M≥81.75E-30.0006.00E-32.00E-32.00E-32.03E-30.661 (66.10%)[63.06% 69.02%]0.661 (66.10%)
M≥8.18.02E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-30.362 (36.20%)[33.23% 39.28%]0.362 (36.20%)
M≥8.23.48E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0004.48E-40.167 (16.70%)[14.47% 19.19%]0.167 (16.70%)
M≥8.36.00E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-40.029 (2.90%)[1.99% 4.19%]0.029 (2.90%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)

Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

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Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥50.3440.1381.0880.2700.2088.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.092
M≥5.10.2710.1100.8800.2120.1826.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.073
M≥5.20.2140.0820.6800.1700.1605.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.058
M≥5.30.1690.0620.5420.1340.1004.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.046
M≥5.40.1330.0480.4160.1060.0823.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.037
M≥5.50.1040.0360.3180.0840.0602.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.029
M≥5.60.0810.0280.2540.0660.0502.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.024
M≥5.70.0630.0220.1980.0520.0381.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.019
M≥5.80.0490.0160.1500.0400.0281.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.015
M≥5.90.0370.0100.1060.0300.0261.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.994 (99.40%)0.012
M≥60.0298.00E-30.0800.0240.0160.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.992 (99.20%)9.75E-3
M≥6.10.0226.00E-30.0600.0180.0140.6601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.983 (98.30%)7.58E-3
M≥6.20.0174.00E-30.0460.0140.0100.5290.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.979 (97.90%)6.28E-3
M≥6.30.0142.00E-30.0400.0120.0120.4200.992 (99.20%)[98.36% 99.63%]0.968 (96.80%)5.18E-3
M≥6.40.0112.00E-30.0300.0106.00E-30.3320.977 (97.70%)[96.51% 98.50%]0.948 (94.80%)4.15E-3
M≥6.58.53E-30.0000.0228.00E-34.00E-30.2600.946 (94.60%)[92.96% 95.88%]0.912 (91.20%)3.22E-3
M≥6.66.66E-30.0000.0186.00E-34.00E-30.2050.902 (90.20%)[88.15% 91.94%]0.864 (86.40%)2.56E-3
M≥6.75.18E-30.0000.0164.00E-34.00E-30.1600.849 (84.90%)[82.49% 87.03%]0.812 (81.20%)2.06E-3
M≥6.84.22E-30.0000.0144.00E-32.00E-30.1270.793 (79.30%)[76.63% 81.74%]0.762 (76.20%)1.70E-3
M≥6.93.39E-30.0000.0122.00E-30.0000.1000.728 (72.80%)[69.91% 75.52%]0.702 (70.20%)1.39E-3
M≥72.80E-30.0000.0102.00E-30.0000.0780.673 (67.30%)[64.28% 70.19%]0.651 (65.10%)1.18E-3
M≥7.12.13E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0600.598 (59.80%)[56.68% 62.85%]0.583 (58.30%)9.20E-4
M≥7.21.70E-30.0006.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0450.527 (52.70%)[49.55% 55.83%]0.518 (51.80%)7.72E-4
M≥7.31.43E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0350.469 (46.90%)[43.78% 50.05%]0.463 (46.30%)6.50E-4
M≥7.41.15E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0270.405 (40.50%)[37.45% 43.62%]0.403 (40.30%)5.32E-4
M≥7.58.18E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0190.319 (31.90%)[29.04% 34.90%]0.318 (31.80%)3.84E-4
M≥7.66.70E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0140.277 (27.70%)[24.97% 30.61%]0.276 (27.60%)3.30E-4
M≥7.74.94E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0009.58E-30.217 (21.70%)[19.21% 24.41%]0.217 (21.70%)2.44E-4
M≥7.83.58E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0006.19E-30.159 (15.90%)[13.72% 18.35%]0.159 (15.90%)1.72E-4
M≥7.91.98E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0003.51E-30.092 (9.20%)[7.52% 11.21%]0.092 (9.20%)1.00E-4
M≥89.60E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0002.03E-30.047 (4.70%)[3.51% 6.25%]0.047 (4.70%)5.60E-5
M≥8.14.80E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-30.023 (2.30%)[1.50% 3.49%]0.023 (2.30%)2.60E-5
M≥8.22.20E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.48E-40.011 (1.10%)[0.58% 2.02%]0.011 (1.10%)1.60E-5
M≥8.34.00E-60.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-42.00E-3 (0.20%)[0.03% 0.80%]2.00E-3 (0.20%)4.00E-6
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Long Term Rate Variability

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162 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.565368.2901238.4506171.46675816.6913587.39506159.61111111.9382715
5.16.7745356.5679016.2654321.15388465.25308665.8456797.60493859.388889
5.25.3511565.1913585.10493850.90794214.14197544.6111116.07.3950615
5.34.22158864.09876544.02469160.7132853.24691373.6481484.7283955.8209877
5.43.32383543.23456793.1543210.555277172.54938272.86419753.7283954.5555553
5.52.6094672.53703712.43827150.431673081.99382712.25308632.93209893.5617285
5.62.04252271.99382711.91975310.33564861.55555561.75925922.3086422.771605
5.71.59204531.55555561.51851860.256564741.20987651.37037041.80246912.1419754
5.81.2325391.20987651.16049390.195116220.932098751.06172841.39506171.6358025
5.90.93593830.91975310.932098750.146225660.70370370.808641971.06172841.2407408
6.00.74104730.728395040.71604940.113315340.54938270.635802450.839506150.9814815
6.10.571218130.567901250.57407410.089063460.419753070.487654330.6543210.7592593
6.20.450541140.444444450.432098780.071492260.32716050.382716060.51851850.60493827
6.30.35472430.351851850.35802470.0590428560.253086420.29629630.413580240.4814815
6.40.27753910.27777780.27777780.048542690.191358030.228395060.320987640.37654322
6.50.214127570.209876540.20370370.0408355930.141975310.172839510.253086420.30246913
6.60.166384770.166666670.160493820.0342683870.104938270.135802460.197530870.24074075
6.70.12852880.129629630.123456790.02926030.0740740750.098765430.160493820.19135803
6.80.100855970.098765430.098765430.0248921660.0555555560.0740740750.123456790.15432099
6.90.0786604960.0740740750.0740740750.0212345830.0432098770.0555555560.098765430.12345679
7.00.0613827150.0617283960.0493827160.0182165340.0308641980.0432098770.080246910.09876543
7.10.0463477370.0432098770.0432098770.01555824650.0185185190.0308641980.0617283960.08024691
7.20.035207820.0370370370.0308641980.0130739710.0123456790.0246913580.0493827160.061728396
7.30.0275576130.0246913580.0246913580.0112045580.00617283960.0185185190.0370370370.049382716
7.40.0213251020.0185185190.0185185190.0096500750.00617283960.0123456790.0308641980.043209877
7.50.0150699590.0123456790.0123456790.0079576770.00.00617283960.0246913580.030864198
7.60.0112489710.0123456790.0123456790.0065193910.00.00617283960.0185185190.024691358
7.70.0079259260.00617283960.00617283960.00529334550.00.00.0123456790.018518519
7.80.0055061730.00617283960.00617283960.00440109150.00.00.0123456790.012345679
7.90.0031111110.00.00.00354952040.00.00.00617283960.012345679
8.00.00174897120.00.00.00291970880.00.00.00617283960.0061728396
8.18.065844E-40.00.00.0020987010.00.00.00.0061728396
8.23.45679E-40.00.00.001419270.00.00.00.0061728396
8.35.144033E-50.00.05.6114775E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

80 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.5647378.16258.11252.03205666.18757.0259.912513.225
5.16.77420856.4756.58751.60239644.86255.557.8510.4625
5.25.35098555.1254.8751.26220683.81254.3756.2258.25
5.34.22149374.03753.86250.9926062.98753.454.91256.4625
5.43.32391673.18753.2250.774967852.33752.71253.88755.1125
5.52.60961462.51252.36250.6031621.8252.1253.054.0
5.62.04273131.9751.88750.468080821.41251.66252.43.1125
5.71.59216671.53751.5750.35906351.11.28751.8752.3875
5.81.2327731.21.11250.273735580.83751.01.451.825
5.90.93620620.91250.88750.205943260.6250.751.11251.3875
6.00.74138120.7250.71250.161075860.48750.60.8751.0875
6.10.57160830.56250.5250.127428110.36250.450.68750.85
6.20.450839580.43750.4250.102702030.2750.350.550.675
6.30.354958330.350.3250.0853335860.21250.2750.43750.5375
6.40.277795820.2750.23750.070994030.150.21250.350.4375
6.50.214314580.21250.20.059913250.11250.16250.2750.3375
6.60.166491670.16250.13750.0507152380.0750.11250.21250.275
6.70.128597920.1250.1250.0434663150.050.08750.1750.225
6.80.1008979160.10.10.0373071580.03750.06250.13750.1875
6.90.07866250.0750.0750.0320566330.0250.050.11250.15
7.00.0613833330.06250.050.0277432970.01250.03750.08750.125
7.10.0463395830.050.03750.0237107630.01250.0250.0750.1
7.20.0351895840.03750.0250.020181480.00.01250.050.075
7.30.0275270830.0250.0250.0174774940.00.01250.050.0625
7.40.02128750.0250.01250.0151320110.00.01250.03750.05
7.50.01506250.01250.01250.0126056480.00.00.0250.0375
7.60.0112479170.01250.01250.0106296560.00.00.0250.0375
7.70.0079083330.01250.00.00873271750.00.00.01250.025
7.80.00550.00.00.00724281230.00.00.01250.025
7.90.00310208320.00.00.00563536030.00.00.01250.0125
8.00.00175208330.00.00.00442860.00.00.00.0125
8.18.0625E-40.00.00.00307051880.00.00.00.0125
8.23.4583334E-40.00.00.0020501990.00.00.00.0125
8.35.2083335E-50.00.08.051888E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

28 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.5672297.8571436.9642863.19467195.4642866.42857110.39285816.25
5.16.7763786.2142865.752.52439434.255.0714298.28571412.821428
5.25.3527674.9285714.4642861.99037713.28571443.96428566.53571410.107142
5.34.222963.8928573.3928571.56634092.53571443.1071435.1785717.928571
5.43.3251893.07142852.82142851.22669671.96428572.42857154.1071436.178571
5.52.61065752.42857152.17857150.95717671.51.89285723.21428564.821429
5.62.04335931.92857151.750.743290251.14285721.46428572.53571443.75
5.71.59269951.51.35714280.573297260.857142871.14285722.02.892857
5.81.23318281.17857151.10714280.438838480.642857130.857142871.57142852.2142856
5.90.936434860.892857130.82142860.332488860.46428570.642857131.21428571.6785715
6.00.74151680.714285730.642857130.262376250.357142870.50.964285731.3214285
6.10.57176050.535714270.50.20983910.250.392857130.751.0357143
6.20.450880260.428571430.392857130.171928080.178571430.28571430.607142870.8214286
6.30.354983180.321428570.28571430.144068350.107142860.214285720.50.6785714
6.40.277834030.250.214285720.120530960.0714285750.178571430.392857130.53571427
6.50.214378150.214285720.178571430.102405010.0357142870.107142860.321428570.42857143
6.60.166542020.142857150.142857150.0868643750.0357142870.0714285750.250.35714287
6.70.128644960.107142860.107142860.074754970.00.0714285750.214285720.2857143
6.80.100905460.107142860.0714285750.064623570.00.0357142870.178571430.25
6.90.078670170.0714285750.0714285750.055712180.00.0357142870.142857150.21428572
7.00.0613802520.0714285750.0357142870.0487164860.00.00.107142860.17857143
7.10.0463403350.0357142870.0357142870.04175140.00.00.0714285750.14285715
7.20.0351785720.0357142870.00.0358580870.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.30.0275168060.0357142870.00.0312220770.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.40.021298320.00.00.0272958070.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.50.0150903360.00.00.022782790.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.60.0112710080.00.00.0194535740.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.70.007924370.00.00.0161146930.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.80.0055147060.00.00.0134683980.00.00.00.035714287
7.90.00311344540.00.00.0102592610.00.00.00.035714287
8.00.0017626050.00.00.00780344940.00.00.00.035714287
8.18.130252E-40.00.00.00532687550.00.00.00.0
8.23.487395E-40.00.00.00351188870.00.00.00.0
8.35.252101E-50.00.00.00136857290.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Variability Duration Dependence

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Duration Dependence Plot

Download CSV Here

Duration (years)MeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
1.08.5593147.05.012.7112241.03.012.027.0
4.08.5593147.256.257.2583683.55.011.022.5
8.08.5604057.3756.3755.4993374.255.62510.7520.25
12.08.5632767.56.41666654.6706154.755.833333510.66666718.666666
16.08.5604057.6256.6254.0919425.06.062510.562517.8125
20.08.5593147.77.13.69549685.156.210.4516.95
24.08.5647377.79166656.91666653.46927935.33333356.333333510.41666716.583334
28.08.5672297.8571436.9642863.19467195.4642866.42857110.39285816.25
32.08.5647377.8757.1253.05314875.56256.510.312515.75
36.08.563887.91666657.3611112.8851195.66666656.583333510.2515.361111
40.08.5647377.9757.3252.73898895.7256.62510.22515.125
44.08.5663888.07.54545452.65053845.79545456.68181810.18181815.022727
48.08.5647378.0208337.14583352.54950645.85416656.7510.16666714.770833
52.08.563888.0384627.52.458255.88461546.788461710.11538514.480769
56.08.5788068.0714287.6252.38029435.9642866.85714310.08928614.196428
60.08.5647378.0666677.92.30808936.0166676.86666710.06666714.083333
64.08.5788068.1257.8752.26511816.06256.92187510.01562513.796875
68.08.5672298.1323537.752.141356.1029416.941176410.02941113.6470585
72.08.5870168.1388897.6252.14078026.15277776.98611110.02777813.666667
76.08.5758978.1578957.31578972.06274536.17105257.02631579.97368413.407895
80.08.5647378.16258.11252.03205666.18757.0259.912513.225
84.08.5883268.1785728.5119052.01172186.23809537.08333359.90476213.357142
88.08.5811938.1704557.85227251.94076266.32954557.10227259.87513.227273
92.08.5719198.1847837.58695651.86348196.31521757.1304359.86956512.847826
96.08.5647378.2083337.6251.85253146.31257.1259.8437512.90625
100.08.5593148.187.841.8072626.347.149.8412.89
200.08.6059978.3557.91.32756796.8857.529.5911.605
300.08.6544338.478.0333341.12151837.1166677.719.48333411.62
400.08.6059978.46758.510.99061017.2357.75259.367510.99
500.08.5593148.4288.3040.88158997.3267.7749.25410.624

Simulation Stationarity

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Stationarity Plot

Moment Rate Plot

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 313 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0448081.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0035080.670 (67.00%)[63.97% 69.89%]0.0014960.047238618
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0301461.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]9.82E-40.328 (32.80%)[29.91% 35.82%]3.98E-40.03419009
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0198481.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0016340.335 (33.50%)[30.59% 36.53%]6.44E-40.016211301
Mendocino0.019641.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0010040.340 (34.00%)[31.08% 37.04%]4.5E-40.028919645
Cerro Prieto0.014181.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.94E-40.205 (20.50%)[18.07% 23.16%]2.32E-40.015186971
Imperial0.0123321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.1E-40.244 (24.40%)[21.79% 27.21%]2.96E-40.014349225
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.011421.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.44E-40.220 (22.00%)[19.49% 24.72%]2.54E-40.013392845
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0100781.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.98E-40.221 (22.10%)[19.59% 24.83%]2.84E-40.009440966
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0089741.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.44E-40.264 (26.40%)[23.71% 29.27%]4.1E-40.008909097
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev0.008610.993 (99.30%)[98.50% 99.69%]2.18E-40.065 (6.50%)[5.09% 8.26%]7.0E-50.008455746

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 304 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
Cerro Prieto0.0122121.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.08E-40.192 (19.20%)[16.83% 21.81%]2.18E-40.013091409
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0116360.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]5.14E-40.198 (19.80%)[17.40% 22.44%]2.24E-40.012216282
Mendocino0.009781.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.24E-40.242 (24.20%)[21.60% 27.00%]2.9E-40.012516479
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0085280.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]4.84E-40.186 (18.60%)[16.26% 21.18%]2.24E-40.008140643
Imperial0.0084660.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]3.88E-40.167 (16.70%)[14.47% 19.19%]1.7E-40.0096799815
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0080380.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]3.66E-40.159 (15.90%)[13.72% 18.35%]1.62E-40.009075132
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.007371.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.58E-40.197 (19.70%)[17.31% 22.33%]2.42E-40.0067372364
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0072821.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.34E-40.169 (16.90%)[14.66% 19.40%]2.02E-40.00821497
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.006780.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]3.92E-40.149 (14.90%)[12.78% 17.29%]1.6E-40.0067538084
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0065060.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]5.66E-40.209 (20.90%)[18.45% 23.58%]2.64E-40.006658823

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 273 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.007170.994 (99.40%)[98.63% 99.76%]3.66E-40.148 (14.80%)[12.69% 17.19%]1.72E-40.007612852
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0059821.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.44E-40.179 (17.90%)[15.60% 20.45%]2.5E-40.0057427646
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0059121.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.48E-40.179 (17.90%)[15.60% 20.45%]2.4E-40.005722108
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0057040.994 (99.40%)[98.63% 99.76%]3.02E-40.123 (12.30%)[10.36% 14.53%]1.32E-40.0062776324
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0053980.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]3.78E-40.151 (15.10%)[12.97% 17.51%]1.78E-40.0052993274
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0049440.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]3.48E-40.147 (14.70%)[12.59% 17.08%]1.86E-40.0051040766
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0047940.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]3.48E-40.145 (14.50%)[12.41% 16.87%]1.64E-40.005556243
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.004650.983 (98.30%)[97.23% 98.97%]2.96E-40.127 (12.70%)[10.73% 14.96%]1.34E-40.004749499
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.004640.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]3.2E-40.137 (13.70%)[11.66% 16.02%]1.76E-40.0045623486
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.004570.989 (98.90%)[97.98% 99.42%]3.42E-40.155 (15.50%)[13.34% 17.93%]1.7E-40.0049385377

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 207 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.004850.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]3.38E-40.143 (14.30%)[12.22% 16.66%]1.78E-40.0049894005
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0045060.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]3.08E-40.132 (13.20%)[11.20% 15.49%]1.68E-40.0044245115
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0043920.994 (99.40%)[98.63% 99.76%]2.94E-40.132 (13.20%)[11.20% 15.49%]1.5E-40.0045267143
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.004280.993 (99.30%)[98.50% 99.69%]2.82E-40.122 (12.20%)[10.27% 14.43%]1.54E-40.004201805
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.004060.983 (98.30%)[97.23% 98.97%]2.68E-40.118 (11.80%)[9.90% 14.00%]1.48E-40.0040264158
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0038260.987 (98.70%)[97.73% 99.28%]2.56E-40.113 (11.30%)[9.44% 13.47%]1.24E-40.0045710644
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0035580.945 (94.50%)[92.85% 95.79%]2.34E-40.111 (11.10%)[9.25% 13.25%]1.18E-40.0037959707
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0035180.888 (88.80%)[86.64% 90.65%]1.92E-40.087 (8.70%)[7.06% 10.66%]9.4E-50.0038110747
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM0.0032120.948 (94.80%)[93.19% 96.06%]2.08E-40.095 (9.50%)[7.79% 11.53%]9.8E-50.0035515025
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0030940.897 (89.70%)[87.61% 91.48%]1.92E-40.088 (8.80%)[7.15% 10.77%]1.08E-40.0032088608

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 62 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0015720.630 (63.00%)[59.91% 65.99%]9.2E-50.045 (4.50%)[3.34% 6.02%]5.2E-50.0018098651
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0015460.619 (61.90%)[58.80% 64.91%]8.6E-50.042 (4.20%)[3.08% 5.69%]4.8E-50.0017508415
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0015440.618 (61.80%)[58.70% 64.81%]8.6E-50.042 (4.20%)[3.08% 5.69%]4.8E-50.0017453934
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0015360.621 (62.10%)[59.00% 65.10%]9.0E-50.045 (4.50%)[3.34% 6.02%]5.0E-50.0017636013
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0015040.602 (60.20%)[57.08% 63.24%]8.4E-50.041 (4.10%)[2.99% 5.57%]4.8E-50.0017193216
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0014740.603 (60.30%)[57.18% 63.34%]8.8E-50.044 (4.40%)[3.25% 5.91%]4.8E-50.0016807786
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0013020.542 (54.20%)[51.05% 57.32%]7.2E-50.035 (3.50%)[2.49% 4.89%]4.4E-50.0015122787
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.001190.487 (48.70%)[45.56% 51.85%]6.6E-50.032 (3.20%)[2.23% 4.54%]4.0E-50.0014250289
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM8.18E-40.357 (35.70%)[32.74% 38.77%]4.6E-50.022 (2.20%)[1.42% 3.37%]2.8E-50.0010319632
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM7.44E-40.329 (32.90%)[30.01% 35.92%]3.6E-50.018 (1.80%)[1.10% 2.89%]2.6E-59.2652056E-4

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 1000,
  "duration": 500.0,
  "startYear": 2012,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 1615602591298,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_triggered_descendants",
      "descendantsOnly": true
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV\u003d1.5, MaxPtSrcM\u003d6, Scale Factor 1.28, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2021_03_12-Start2012_500yr_kCOV1p5_MaxPtSrcM6_ScaleFactor1p28_Spontaneous_HistoricalCatalog",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.28,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "etas_k_cov": 1.5,
  "maxPointSourceMag": 6.0,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --max-point-src-mag 6 --scale-factor 1.28 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec",
  "configTime": 1615602591298
}