Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, MaxPtSrcM=6, NoERT, Scale Factor 1.15, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog Results

Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, MaxPtSrcM=6, NoERT, Scale Factor 1.15, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog
Num Simulations1000
Start Time2012/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1325376000000
Duration500 Years
Includes Spontaneous?true
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Trigger Ruptures60366 Trigger Ruptures
First: M7.3 at 1852/01/05 04:40:39 UTC
Last: M3.2 at 2011/12/31 19:14:44 UTC
Largest: M7.9 at 1857/01/09 16:25:39 UTC
Config Generated Withu3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --prob-model NO_ERT --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --max-point-src-mag 6 --scale-factor 1.15 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec

Table Of Contents

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous

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Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥58.5487.13810.7028.4108.5328.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.16.7665.6368.4286.6626.4326.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.25.3534.4526.6685.2685.2685.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.34.2303.5425.2684.1664.1204.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.43.3372.7944.1543.2923.3363.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.52.6282.2043.2422.5922.5922.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.62.0651.7262.5142.0361.8962.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.71.6181.3581.9441.6041.6161.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.81.2621.0701.5201.2501.2441.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.90.9660.8161.1560.9600.9461.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥60.7710.6540.9140.7680.7520.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.10.5990.5060.7080.5960.5900.6601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.20.4780.4020.5600.4760.4720.5291.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.30.3810.3220.4520.3820.3880.4201.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.40.3040.2520.3580.3040.3040.3321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.50.2370.1920.2820.2360.2380.2601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.60.1870.1500.2260.1880.1960.2051.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.70.1450.1140.1780.1440.1400.1601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.80.1150.0880.1440.1140.1120.1271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.90.0910.0680.1160.0900.0920.1001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥70.0720.0520.0920.0720.0680.0781.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.10.0550.0380.0720.0540.0560.0601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.20.0410.0280.0560.0420.0440.0451.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.30.0330.0220.0460.0340.0340.0351.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.40.0260.0160.0360.0260.0240.0271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.50.0180.0100.0280.0180.0180.0191.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.60.0138.00E-30.0200.0120.0120.0141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.79.15E-34.00E-30.0148.00E-38.00E-39.58E-31.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.86.35E-32.00E-30.0106.00E-36.00E-36.19E-30.993 (99.30%)[98.50% 99.69%]0.993 (99.30%)
M≥7.93.39E-30.0008.00E-34.00E-34.00E-33.51E-30.902 (90.20%)[88.15% 91.94%]0.902 (90.20%)
M≥81.85E-30.0006.00E-32.00E-32.00E-32.03E-30.677 (67.70%)[64.69% 70.57%]0.677 (67.70%)
M≥8.18.72E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-30.383 (38.30%)[35.29% 41.40%]0.383 (38.30%)
M≥8.23.34E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0004.48E-40.160 (16.00%)[13.81% 18.45%]0.160 (16.00%)
M≥8.37.20E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-40.035 (3.50%)[2.49% 4.89%]0.035 (3.50%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)

Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

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Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥50.4360.1541.3520.3220.2048.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.093
M≥5.10.3450.1201.0340.2580.2206.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.075
M≥5.20.2730.0940.8160.2060.1965.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.060
M≥5.30.2170.0740.6580.1640.1104.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.048
M≥5.40.1710.0580.5180.1300.0923.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.039
M≥5.50.1350.0440.4020.1040.0762.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.031
M≥5.60.1060.0340.3200.0820.0622.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.025
M≥5.70.0830.0260.2400.0660.0501.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.020
M≥5.80.0650.0200.1860.0520.0421.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.016
M≥5.90.0490.0140.1360.0400.0281.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.013
M≥60.0390.0120.1060.0320.0240.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.998 (99.80%)0.011
M≥6.10.0308.00E-30.0780.0260.0220.6600.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.995 (99.50%)8.38E-3
M≥6.20.0246.00E-30.0640.0200.0160.5290.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.995 (99.50%)6.98E-3
M≥6.30.0204.00E-30.0540.0180.0120.4200.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.994 (99.40%)5.77E-3
M≥6.40.0162.00E-30.0420.0140.0100.3320.991 (99.10%)[98.23% 99.56%]0.986 (98.60%)4.60E-3
M≥6.50.0122.00E-30.0340.0108.00E-30.2600.979 (97.90%)[96.75% 98.66%]0.972 (97.20%)3.65E-3
M≥6.69.85E-30.0000.0288.00E-36.00E-30.2050.960 (96.00%)[94.54% 97.09%]0.952 (95.20%)2.87E-3
M≥6.77.69E-30.0000.0226.00E-36.00E-30.1600.931 (93.10%)[91.30% 94.56%]0.918 (91.80%)2.21E-3
M≥6.86.21E-30.0000.0186.00E-34.00E-30.1270.890 (89.00%)[86.86% 90.84%]0.877 (87.70%)1.77E-3
M≥6.95.22E-30.0000.0164.00E-34.00E-30.1000.853 (85.30%)[82.92% 87.41%]0.840 (84.00%)1.46E-3
M≥74.28E-30.0000.0144.00E-32.00E-30.0780.808 (80.80%)[78.19% 83.17%]0.794 (79.40%)1.19E-3
M≥7.13.35E-30.0000.0122.00E-30.0000.0600.717 (71.70%)[68.78% 74.45%]0.704 (70.40%)8.90E-4
M≥7.22.64E-30.0000.0102.00E-30.0000.0450.628 (62.80%)[59.71% 65.79%]0.619 (61.90%)6.90E-4
M≥7.32.26E-30.0000.0102.00E-30.0000.0350.578 (57.80%)[54.66% 60.87%]0.572 (57.20%)5.76E-4
M≥7.41.78E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0270.504 (50.40%)[47.26% 53.54%]0.500 (50.00%)4.46E-4
M≥7.51.26E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0190.400 (40.00%)[36.96% 43.12%]0.399 (39.90%)3.02E-4
M≥7.61.03E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0140.359 (35.90%)[32.94% 38.97%]0.359 (35.90%)2.42E-4
M≥7.77.40E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0009.58E-30.286 (28.60%)[25.84% 31.53%]0.285 (28.50%)1.50E-4
M≥7.85.60E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0006.19E-30.227 (22.70%)[20.16% 25.45%]0.227 (22.70%)1.02E-4
M≥7.92.96E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0003.51E-30.133 (13.30%)[11.29% 15.60%]0.133 (13.30%)5.60E-5
M≥81.48E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0002.03E-30.070 (7.00%)[5.53% 8.81%]0.070 (7.00%)2.00E-5
M≥8.17.80E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-30.038 (3.80%)[2.74% 5.23%]0.038 (3.80%)1.40E-5
M≥8.23.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.48E-40.015 (1.50%)[0.87% 2.52%]0.015 (1.50%)6.00E-6
M≥8.34.00E-60.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-42.00E-3 (0.20%)[0.03% 0.80%]2.00E-3 (0.20%)2.00E-6
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Long Term Rate Variability

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162 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.5489148.2160498.0308641.63764426.4197537.19753079.80246912.271605
5.16.7676.51851846.22222231.29087765.0802475.7037047.77777779.734568
5.25.3536115.1604945.1111111.01461984.00617274.50617276.13580237.740741
5.34.2303684.0802473.91358020.794363743.16666673.56172854.8395066.0617285
5.43.33790953.23456792.83950610.618276242.4938272.8086423.82716064.728395
5.52.6281442.54938272.48765420.481639471.96913582.20987653.01234583.7098765
5.62.06516272.0061731.90123460.36984711.54320991.74074082.37654332.8950617
5.71.61868111.5740741.56172840.282003641.20370381.37037041.85185182.2469137
5.81.26248761.23456791.22222220.212099420.93827161.0740741.44444441.7530864
5.90.966347750.94444440.932098750.158187330.709876540.820987641.11111121.3271605
6.00.77140740.75925930.76543210.122166040.567901250.6543210.88888891.0432099
6.10.598726330.59259260.59259260.096508350.432098780.506172840.691358030.80864197
6.20.478170780.46913580.462962960.077712760.345679010.401234570.54938270.6481481
6.30.38165020.376543220.382716060.063924570.26543210.320987640.444444450.5185185
6.40.303823050.302469130.290123460.0532998480.20370370.253086420.35802470.41358024
6.50.237234560.23456790.228395060.0451521350.154320990.191358030.283950630.33333334
6.60.187059670.185185180.179012340.038010920.117283950.148148150.222222220.2654321
6.70.144783940.141975310.135802460.032091630.0864197540.111111110.172839510.20987654
6.80.115199590.111111110.104938270.027218640.067901230.0864197540.141975310.17283951
6.90.091226340.092592590.0864197540.0235457050.0493827160.067901230.111111110.14197531
7.00.072146090.067901230.0617283960.0201504340.0370370370.0555555560.092592590.11728395
7.10.05493210.0555555560.0493827160.0172067640.0246913580.0370370370.0740740750.09259259
7.20.0413641970.0370370370.0370370370.0143305610.0185185190.0246913580.0555555560.074074075
7.30.0330041160.0308641980.0308641980.0124059570.0123456790.0185185190.0432098770.061728396
7.40.025483540.0246913580.0246913580.0107222720.00617283960.0123456790.0370370370.049382716
7.50.0178477370.0185185190.0123456790.0087213980.00617283960.0123456790.0246913580.037037037
7.60.0133148150.0123456790.0123456790.00706428660.00.00617283960.0185185190.030864198
7.70.0091872430.00617283960.00617283960.0056973130.00.00617283960.0123456790.018518519
7.80.0063786010.00617283960.00617283960.00460923740.00.00.0123456790.018518519
7.90.0034094650.00.00.00372726330.00.00.00617283960.012345679
8.00.00186008230.00.00.00300213020.00.00.00617283960.0061728396
8.18.8065845E-40.00.00.002182250.00.00.00.0061728396
8.23.3539094E-40.00.00.00139922380.00.00.00.0061728396
8.37.201646E-50.00.06.628421E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

80 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.54597958.0757.53752.28224375.9256.77510.137514.1375
5.16.76471236.38755.88751.7978144.66255.36258.0511.1625
5.25.35181055.0754.68751.4124633.68754.23756.36258.7875
5.34.22912074.0253.71251.10448412.88753.355.03756.95
5.43.3368773.1753.01250.85952872.26252.653.9755.4625
5.52.62731672.51252.43750.66931831.7752.0753.13754.25
5.62.0646291.9751.750.514788871.38751.63752.453.325
5.71.61829581.56251.50.39359481.0751.28751.9252.5625
5.81.26219581.21251.20.298017950.83751.01.51251.975
5.90.966133360.93750.90.222150770.6250.76251.151.4875
6.00.7712250.750.750.173063140.50.61250.9251.1625
6.10.598566650.58750.61250.137440620.3750.46250.7250.9125
6.20.477979150.46250.450.111887820.28750.3750.58750.725
6.30.381531240.3750.3750.092923430.2250.28750.4750.5875
6.40.30376040.30.2750.0782733560.16250.2250.3750.475
6.50.237168740.23750.21250.066162830.1250.1750.30.375
6.60.186981250.18750.1750.0562746860.08750.13750.23750.3125
6.70.144766670.13750.150.0478191860.06250.10.18750.25
6.80.115147920.11250.10.040938140.050.0750.150.2
6.90.0911895860.08750.0750.0352868660.03750.06250.1250.1625
7.00.07208750.0750.06250.0303650820.0250.03750.10.1375
7.10.0548770840.050.050.0261075590.01250.0250.0750.1125
7.20.0413333330.03750.03750.0219823160.00.0250.06250.0875
7.30.0329791680.0250.0250.0191166810.00.01250.050.075
7.40.0254479160.0250.0250.0164247770.00.01250.03750.0625
7.50.01780.01250.01250.0136409920.00.00.0250.05
7.60.0132666670.01250.01250.0113553280.00.00.0250.0375
7.70.0091416670.01250.00.0094357880.00.00.01250.025
7.80.0063458330.00.00.00768800360.00.00.01250.025
7.90.00338750.00.00.0058704640.00.00.01250.0125
8.00.001850.00.00.00449124160.00.00.00.0125
8.18.75E-40.00.00.00318933770.00.00.00.0125
8.23.3541667E-40.00.00.00201995160.00.00.00.0125
8.37.2916664E-50.00.09.5191464E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

28 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.5465587.6785717.0714293.66024665.1071436.14285710.57142817.428572
5.16.7647566.0714295.6071432.88540224.04.8214298.35714213.821428
5.25.35160064.8214294.5714292.26707673.1071433.82142856.64285710.892858
5.34.2288093.82142853.53571441.77454922.42857153.05.258.607142
5.43.33681943.03571442.8571431.38399981.89285722.3571434.1785716.75
5.52.62723732.3928572.01.07825781.42857151.85714283.32142855.285714
5.62.06444121.89285721.82142850.8340341.10714281.42857152.6071434.107143
5.71.61805461.51.42857150.63958920.857142871.10714282.07142853.1785715
5.81.2619581.17857151.03571430.48588760.642857130.857142871.60714282.4285715
5.90.96593280.892857130.82142860.365667970.46428570.642857131.251.8214285
6.00.77102730.714285730.642857130.288600440.357142870.51.01.4642857
6.10.598418060.57142860.57142860.231239420.250.392857130.82142861.1428572
6.20.477825640.46428570.46428570.190526220.178571430.28571430.642857130.9285714
6.30.381451670.357142870.321428570.16013650.142857150.214285720.535714270.75
6.40.303632350.28571430.28571430.13568110.0714285750.178571430.428571430.60714287
6.50.237044110.214285720.214285720.115077950.0714285750.142857150.357142870.5
6.60.186886550.178571430.142857150.098112620.0357142870.107142860.28571430.39285713
6.70.144674380.142857150.107142860.083512060.00.0714285750.214285720.32142857
6.80.115071430.107142860.107142860.0724113960.00.0357142870.178571430.2857143
6.90.091178570.0714285750.0714285750.063272980.00.0357142870.142857150.25
7.00.0720567260.0714285750.0357142870.0552643840.00.0357142870.107142860.21428572
7.10.0548487380.0357142870.0357142870.0475954340.00.00.107142860.17857143
7.20.041329830.0357142870.0357142870.0404234680.00.00.0714285750.14285715
7.30.0329810940.0357142870.00.0355831980.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.40.0254558830.0357142870.00.0307450870.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.50.0178088230.00.00.0255696920.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.60.0132815130.00.00.0216774070.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.70.0091491590.00.00.0177926380.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.80.00635714270.00.00.0146368920.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.90.0033970590.00.00.0106693550.00.00.00.035714287
8.00.00185294120.00.00.0079870830.00.00.00.035714287
8.18.7605044E-40.00.00.00552449560.00.00.00.0
8.23.3403363E-40.00.00.003437760.00.00.00.0
8.37.352941E-50.00.00.00161884030.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Variability Duration Dependence

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Duration Dependence Plot

Download CSV Here

Duration (years)MeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
1.08.5481286.05.014.6390791.03.012.029.0
4.08.5481286.756.08.4733.254.7511.024.5
8.08.5477667.1256.06.4023734.05.2510.87521.875
12.08.5480617.33333356.33333355.4124694.33333355.583333510.7520.25
16.08.5477667.43756.18754.79358154.6255.7510.687519.25
20.08.5481287.556.64.3465464.855.910.6518.25
24.08.54597957.58333356.8753.97535445.06.041666510.58333317.958334
28.08.5465587.6785717.0714293.66024665.1071436.14285710.57142817.428572
32.08.54597957.718757.343753.4739425.18756.2187510.517.09375
36.08.5477917.757.19444473.33572055.33333356.277777710.47222216.63889
40.08.54597957.8257.13.1496845.3756.32510.42516.275
44.08.549777.86363656.97727253.05005765.45454556.40909110.38636415.840909
48.08.54597957.8757.33333352.90792255.52083356.479166510.35416715.625
52.08.5477917.9230777.11538462.80417825.59615376.510.28846215.442307
56.08.5547287.9821437.3928572.68803745.6607146.58928610.26785815.089286
60.08.54597957.9833337.66666652.60251935.76.610.2514.983334
64.08.5547288.0468757.2343752.5320125.781256.6562510.17187514.890625
68.08.5465588.0294117.3529412.45865325.83823546.691176410.17647114.6470585
72.08.5656228.0555557.30555532.43041635.8611116.73611110.15277814.638889
76.08.5526758.0789477.47368432.3349355.90789466.776315710.14473714.421053
80.08.54597958.0757.53752.28224375.9256.77510.137514.1375
84.08.5807528.1190478.2857142.22125056.06.833333510.15476213.976191
88.08.5639958.1136368.1477272.18230775.9659096.852272510.09090913.875
92.08.551648.0978267.53260852.1353776.06.88043510.07608713.695652
96.08.54597958.1041678.0104172.07555636.05208356.9062510.01041713.635417
100.08.5481288.137.682.05610976.046.9310.0213.39
200.08.5880478.3057.5951.45171096.6357.3759.78512.025
300.08.669748.458.351.24930276.937.6333339.68333311.753333
400.08.5880478.42258.3951.06502787.0157.6459.4911.1375
500.08.5481288.418.5320.9484037.1387.6989.3610.702

Simulation Stationarity

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Stationarity Plot

Moment Rate Plot

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 313 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.049921.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0050320.712 (71.20%)[68.27% 73.97%]0.0015680.047238618
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0337381.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0015740.420 (42.00%)[38.93% 45.13%]4.56E-40.03419009
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.024621.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0026080.397 (39.70%)[36.66% 42.82%]5.82E-40.016211301
Mendocino0.0205481.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0016460.455 (45.50%)[42.39% 48.65%]6.04E-40.028919645
Cerro Prieto0.0158441.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0010080.278 (27.80%)[25.06% 30.71%]2.84E-40.015186971
Imperial0.013471.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0010080.313 (31.30%)[28.45% 34.29%]3.98E-40.014349225
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0125661.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.32E-40.281 (28.10%)[25.35% 31.02%]3.16E-40.013392845
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0118181.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.42E-40.240 (24.00%)[21.41% 26.80%]2.54E-40.009440966
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0109881.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0013360.311 (31.10%)[28.26% 34.09%]3.36E-40.008909097
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev0.010440.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]4.76E-40.110 (11.00%)[9.16% 13.14%]1.14E-40.008455746

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 306 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
Cerro Prieto0.0136881.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.9E-40.264 (26.40%)[23.71% 29.27%]2.64E-40.013091409
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0134381.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.26E-40.290 (29.00%)[26.22% 31.94%]2.18E-40.012216282
Mendocino0.0111021.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0010280.340 (34.00%)[31.08% 37.04%]3.5E-40.012516479
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0101081.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]7.06E-40.218 (21.80%)[19.30% 24.52%]2.22E-40.008140643
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0095661.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]9.5E-40.258 (25.80%)[23.14% 28.65%]1.74E-40.0067372364
Imperial0.0093541.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.32E-40.232 (23.20%)[20.64% 25.97%]2.3E-40.0096799815
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.008951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.98E-40.224 (22.40%)[19.88% 25.14%]2.12E-40.009075132
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0086521.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]7.24E-40.231 (23.10%)[20.55% 25.86%]1.28E-40.0067538084
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0079461.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]9.26E-40.263 (26.30%)[23.62% 29.17%]2.2E-40.006658823
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0079180.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]6.22E-40.232 (23.20%)[20.64% 25.97%]2.02E-40.00821497

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 273 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0084161.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.26E-40.239 (23.90%)[21.31% 26.69%]1.54E-40.007612852
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0069961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]7.26E-40.248 (24.80%)[22.18% 27.62%]1.84E-40.005722108
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0068541.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.9E-40.234 (23.40%)[20.83% 26.17%]1.8E-40.0057427646
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0067361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.4E-40.220 (22.00%)[19.49% 24.72%]1.2E-40.0052993274
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0062420.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]4.06E-40.173 (17.30%)[15.03% 19.82%]1.16E-40.0062776324
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0058420.992 (99.20%)[98.36% 99.63%]5.16E-40.192 (19.20%)[16.83% 21.81%]8.8E-50.004749499
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.005781.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.56E-40.211 (21.10%)[18.64% 23.79%]1.12E-40.0051040766
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0056361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.38E-40.195 (19.50%)[17.12% 22.12%]1.18E-40.005556243
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0055880.993 (99.30%)[98.50% 99.69%]5.76E-40.213 (21.30%)[18.83% 24.00%]1.26E-40.004465195
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0055020.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]5.78E-40.206 (20.60%)[18.16% 23.27%]1.36E-40.0049385377

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 215 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.005641.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.38E-40.210 (21.00%)[18.54% 23.69%]1.12E-40.0049894005
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0051981.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.88E-40.197 (19.70%)[17.31% 22.33%]1.06E-40.0044245115
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0051180.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]4.82E-40.190 (19.00%)[16.64% 21.60%]9.0E-50.0045267143
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0048981.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.66E-40.188 (18.80%)[16.45% 21.39%]1.06E-40.004201805
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0046680.994 (99.40%)[98.63% 99.76%]4.56E-40.186 (18.60%)[16.26% 21.18%]1.0E-40.0040264158
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0044260.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]3.94E-40.159 (15.90%)[13.72% 18.35%]9.4E-50.0045710644
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0041640.966 (96.60%)[95.23% 97.60%]3.84E-40.160 (16.00%)[13.81% 18.45%]6.8E-50.0037959707
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0039980.923 (92.30%)[90.43% 93.84%]3.34E-40.148 (14.80%)[12.69% 17.19%]6.0E-50.0038110747
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.003660.942 (94.20%)[92.52% 95.53%]3.5E-40.158 (15.80%)[13.62% 18.24%]6.4E-50.0032088608
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM0.0034620.973 (97.30%)[96.04% 98.18%]2.92E-40.130 (13.00%)[11.01% 15.28%]7.0E-50.0035515025

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 64 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0016640.634 (63.40%)[60.32% 66.38%]1.4E-40.066 (6.60%)[5.18% 8.37%]2.0E-50.0018098651
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0016220.621 (62.10%)[59.00% 65.10%]1.38E-40.065 (6.50%)[5.09% 8.26%]1.8E-50.0017636013
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0016060.616 (61.60%)[58.50% 64.61%]1.36E-40.064 (6.40%)[5.00% 8.15%]2.0E-50.0017508415
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0015980.613 (61.30%)[58.19% 64.32%]1.36E-40.064 (6.40%)[5.00% 8.15%]2.0E-50.0017453934
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0015760.608 (60.80%)[57.69% 63.83%]1.34E-40.063 (6.30%)[4.91% 8.03%]2.0E-50.0017193216
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0015580.606 (60.60%)[57.49% 63.63%]1.34E-40.064 (6.40%)[5.00% 8.15%]1.8E-50.0016807786
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0013920.555 (55.50%)[52.35% 58.60%]1.24E-40.059 (5.90%)[4.56% 7.59%]2.0E-50.0015122787
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0012520.501 (50.10%)[46.96% 53.24%]1.06E-40.050 (5.00%)[3.77% 6.59%]1.8E-50.0014250289
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM8.68E-40.379 (37.90%)[34.90% 41.00%]6.4E-50.031 (3.10%)[2.15% 4.42%]1.0E-50.0010319632
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM7.7E-40.345 (34.50%)[31.57% 37.55%]5.6E-50.028 (2.80%)[1.90% 4.08%]1.0E-59.2652056E-4

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 1000,
  "duration": 500.0,
  "startYear": 2012,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 1615599273414,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_triggered_descendants",
      "descendantsOnly": true
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV\u003d1.5, MaxPtSrcM\u003d6, NoERT, Scale Factor 1.15, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2021_03_12-Start2012_500yr_kCOV1p5_MaxPtSrcM6_NoERT_ScaleFactor1p15_Spontaneous_HistoricalCatalog",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "NO_ERT",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.15,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "etas_k_cov": 1.5,
  "maxPointSourceMag": 6.0,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --prob-model NO_ERT --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --max-point-src-mag 6 --scale-factor 1.15 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec",
  "configTime": 1615599273414
}