Start 2012, 500 yr, Scale Factor 1.3, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog Results

Start 2012, 500 yr, Scale Factor 1.3, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog
Num Simulations1000
Start Time2012/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1325376000000
Duration500 Years
Includes Spontaneous?true
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Trigger Ruptures60366 Trigger Ruptures
First: M7.3 at 1852/01/05 04:40:39 UTC
Last: M3.2 at 2011/12/31 19:14:44 UTC
Largest: M7.9 at 1857/01/09 16:25:39 UTC
Config Generated Withu3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --scale-factor 1.3 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec

Table Of Contents

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous

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Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥58.6767.9589.3708.6748.8328.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.16.8566.2847.4106.8527.0406.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.25.4154.9545.8685.4125.2105.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.34.2733.8884.6444.2704.2044.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.43.3623.0583.6703.3603.3663.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.52.6402.3842.8742.6442.6722.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.62.0661.8462.2662.0662.1162.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.71.6111.4401.7821.6101.6261.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.81.2491.1061.3861.2481.2621.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.90.9520.8421.0620.9520.9681.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥60.7530.6600.8420.7520.7400.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.10.5790.5020.6560.5800.5820.6601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.20.4560.3900.5240.4580.4460.5291.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.30.3580.3060.4160.3580.3560.4201.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.40.2800.2340.3280.2800.2820.3321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.50.2160.1760.2560.2160.2240.2601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.60.1680.1360.2040.1660.1660.2051.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.70.1290.1000.1580.1280.1340.1601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.80.1020.0780.1280.1020.0980.1271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.90.0790.0580.1040.0800.0800.1001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥70.0620.0440.0820.0620.0600.0781.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.10.0470.0320.0640.0460.0460.0601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.20.0360.0220.0500.0360.0340.0451.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.30.0280.0180.0400.0280.0260.0351.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.40.0210.0120.0300.0220.0200.0271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.50.0158.00E-30.0240.0140.0140.0191.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.60.0116.00E-30.0180.0120.0120.0141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.78.08E-34.00E-30.0148.00E-38.00E-39.58E-30.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.999 (99.90%)
M≥7.85.51E-32.00E-30.0106.00E-36.00E-36.19E-30.993 (99.30%)[98.50% 99.69%]0.993 (99.30%)
M≥7.92.97E-30.0006.00E-32.00E-32.00E-33.51E-30.880 (88.00%)[85.79% 89.92%]0.880 (88.00%)
M≥81.59E-30.0004.00E-32.00E-32.00E-32.03E-30.614 (61.40%)[58.29% 64.42%]0.614 (61.40%)
M≥8.17.58E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-30.328 (32.80%)[29.91% 35.82%]0.328 (32.80%)
M≥8.23.38E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0004.48E-40.153 (15.30%)[13.16% 17.72%]0.153 (15.30%)
M≥8.36.00E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-40.029 (2.90%)[1.99% 4.19%]0.029 (2.90%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)

Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

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Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥50.3500.1780.7560.3080.2508.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.997 (99.70%)0.093
M≥5.10.2760.1360.6000.2440.1886.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.997 (99.70%)0.074
M≥5.20.2180.1060.4740.1940.1505.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.997 (99.70%)0.059
M≥5.30.1720.0820.3740.1540.1204.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.997 (99.70%)0.047
M≥5.40.1360.0600.2960.1200.0963.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.997 (99.70%)0.037
M≥5.50.1070.0460.2340.0960.0802.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.997 (99.70%)0.030
M≥5.60.0830.0340.1800.0740.0602.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.997 (99.70%)0.024
M≥5.70.0650.0240.1420.0580.0481.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.997 (99.70%)0.019
M≥5.80.0500.0180.1100.0440.0421.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.997 (99.70%)0.015
M≥5.90.0380.0140.0840.0340.0281.0360.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.996 (99.60%)0.012
M≥60.0308.00E-30.0640.0260.0220.8360.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]0.995 (99.50%)9.79E-3
M≥6.10.0226.00E-30.0480.0200.0160.6600.997 (99.70%)[99.05% 99.92%]0.991 (99.10%)7.65E-3
M≥6.20.0184.00E-30.0400.0160.0120.5290.997 (99.70%)[99.05% 99.92%]0.988 (98.80%)6.31E-3
M≥6.30.0142.00E-30.0340.0140.0100.4200.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]0.984 (98.40%)5.23E-3
M≥6.40.0112.00E-30.0280.0108.00E-30.3320.989 (98.90%)[97.98% 99.42%]0.969 (96.90%)4.21E-3
M≥6.58.77E-30.0000.0228.00E-36.00E-30.2600.967 (96.70%)[95.34% 97.68%]0.938 (93.80%)3.30E-3
M≥6.66.82E-30.0000.0186.00E-34.00E-30.2050.934 (93.40%)[91.63% 94.82%]0.893 (89.30%)2.58E-3
M≥6.75.33E-30.0000.0144.00E-34.00E-30.1600.885 (88.50%)[86.32% 90.38%]0.848 (84.80%)2.06E-3
M≥6.84.24E-30.0000.0124.00E-32.00E-30.1270.823 (82.30%)[79.76% 84.59%]0.797 (79.70%)1.63E-3
M≥6.93.44E-30.0000.0122.00E-32.00E-30.1000.765 (76.50%)[73.72% 79.07%]0.742 (74.20%)1.35E-3
M≥72.84E-30.0000.0102.00E-30.0000.0780.694 (69.40%)[66.42% 72.23%]0.676 (67.60%)1.09E-3
M≥7.12.22E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0600.603 (60.30%)[57.18% 63.34%]0.587 (58.70%)8.62E-4
M≥7.21.77E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0450.544 (54.40%)[51.25% 57.51%]0.531 (53.10%)6.98E-4
M≥7.31.47E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0350.483 (48.30%)[45.17% 51.45%]0.478 (47.80%)6.00E-4
M≥7.41.14E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0270.399 (39.90%)[36.86% 43.02%]0.398 (39.80%)4.50E-4
M≥7.58.46E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0190.316 (31.60%)[28.74% 34.60%]0.316 (31.60%)3.32E-4
M≥7.67.04E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0140.275 (27.50%)[24.77% 30.40%]0.275 (27.50%)2.82E-4
M≥7.75.38E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0009.58E-30.222 (22.20%)[19.69% 24.93%]0.222 (22.20%)2.20E-4
M≥7.83.86E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0006.19E-30.172 (17.20%)[14.94% 19.72%]0.172 (17.20%)1.54E-4
M≥7.92.00E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0003.51E-30.093 (9.30%)[7.61% 11.31%]0.093 (9.30%)8.40E-5
M≥89.00E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0002.03E-30.044 (4.40%)[3.25% 5.91%]0.044 (4.40%)4.40E-5
M≥8.14.40E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-30.021 (2.10%)[1.34% 3.25%]0.021 (2.10%)2.40E-5
M≥8.22.60E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.48E-40.013 (1.30%)[0.72% 2.27%]0.013 (1.30%)1.60E-5
M≥8.32.00E-60.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-41.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.01% 0.65%]1.00E-3 (0.10%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Long Term Rate Variability

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162 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.6812188.6543218.6234570.71205527.3456797.97530849.40123510.080247
5.16.8608666.8395067.043210.571626255.7839516.2962967.44444477.987654
5.25.4191135.39506155.3765430.46097874.55555534.956795.8888896.345679
5.34.27628374.25308664.24691340.372870863.58641983.90740754.6604945.012346
5.43.36484983.3518523.48148160.300482962.80246933.06790113.66666673.9629629
5.52.64148352.62962962.70987650.245802432.17283942.40740752.88888883.1358025
5.62.0673622.06172852.02469130.198683591.68518521.87037042.26543212.4753087
5.71.61217491.60493831.61111120.161664531.30246911.45679011.77777781.9444444
5.81.24998971.24691361.26543210.132593690.993827161.12345681.38271611.5185186
5.90.95265230.95061730.901234570.106711540.746913550.85185191.06172841.1728395
6.00.75346910.753086450.728395040.089321680.58024690.66666670.839506150.93209875
6.10.57982920.58024690.54938270.074790030.43827160.506172840.6543210.7345679
6.20.45677160.456790120.462962960.0629923050.339506180.395061730.51851850.58641976
6.30.358246920.35802470.35802470.053000470.259259250.302469130.413580240.4691358
6.40.280045270.27777780.27777780.0454234850.197530870.23456790.32716050.37654322
6.50.216113170.216049390.216049390.0386212430.148148150.179012340.253086420.2962963
6.60.167981480.166666670.154320990.033174230.104938270.135802460.197530870.24074075
6.70.129234570.129629630.129629630.0280262570.080246910.098765430.154320990.19135803
6.80.101786010.098765430.104938270.0241719170.0617283960.080246910.123456790.15432099
6.90.0794197540.080246910.080246910.0207992420.0432098770.0617283960.098765430.12345679
7.00.0621748980.0617283960.0555555560.018352930.0308641980.0432098770.080246910.09876543
7.10.047267490.0432098770.0432098770.0155949180.0185185190.0308641980.0617283960.08024691
7.20.0357551430.0370370370.0370370370.0132121960.0123456790.0246913580.0493827160.061728396
7.30.0280452670.0246913580.0246913580.0112747250.00617283960.0185185190.0370370370.049382716
7.40.0213991780.0185185190.0185185190.0098537980.00617283960.0123456790.0308641980.043209877
7.50.0152119340.0123456790.0123456790.0081364360.00.00617283960.0246913580.030864198
7.60.0114362140.0123456790.0123456790.00667397720.00.00617283960.0185185190.024691358
7.70.0080617280.00617283960.00617283960.00549705370.00.00.0123456790.018518519
7.80.00549176940.00617283960.00617283960.00448891750.00.00.0123456790.012345679
7.90.00297530860.00.00.00354786680.00.00.00617283960.012345679
8.00.00159053490.00.00.00279219770.00.00.00617283960.0061728396
8.17.592593E-40.00.00.00205229670.00.00.00.0061728396
8.23.3744855E-40.00.00.00141228430.00.00.00.0061728396
8.35.9670783E-50.00.06.0396816E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

80 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.6831568.58758.3751.10436346.78757.58759.787511.1125
5.16.86257936.78756.60.882978145.3255.98757.73758.8
5.25.42053755.36255.20.707935874.18754.7256.1256.95
5.34.27758554.23754.21250.569139363.2753.71254.8255.5
5.43.36578133.33753.48750.456632082.552.91253.81254.35
5.52.64217932.6252.50.370500421.98752.2753.01253.425
5.62.06806472.051.9750.29831681.53751.7752.36252.7
5.71.6127751.61.58750.241036771.18751.3751.852.125
5.81.25047921.23751.23750.19510690.91.051.451.6625
5.90.953170840.951.00.157075970.66250.81.11.2875
6.00.75386460.750.750.131294790.5250.6250.88751.0375
6.10.580214560.5750.5750.109845160.38750.4750.68750.8125
6.20.457054170.450.450.092566580.28750.36250.550.65
6.30.358443740.350.3250.078334420.21250.2750.43750.525
6.40.280170830.2750.2750.0665890050.16250.21250.350.425
6.50.216270830.21250.18750.0566734040.11250.16250.2750.3375
6.60.168083340.16250.1750.048739030.08750.1250.21250.275
6.70.129329160.1250.1250.0417002960.050.08750.1750.225
6.80.101843750.10.10.0360585670.03750.06250.13750.175
6.90.079485420.0750.0750.0313433740.0250.050.11250.15
7.00.06223750.06250.050.0276799760.01250.03750.08750.125
7.10.0472916660.050.03750.023640280.01250.0250.0750.1
7.20.0357708330.03750.0250.0201693250.00.01250.050.075
7.30.0280416660.0250.0250.0177002920.00.01250.050.0625
7.40.0213833340.0250.01250.0152903470.00.01250.03750.05
7.50.01520.01250.01250.0127107890.00.00.0250.0375
7.60.011418750.01250.01250.0106483890.00.00.0250.0375
7.70.0080458340.01250.00.0088596690.00.00.01250.025
7.80.005481250.00.00.0072588070.00.00.01250.025
7.90.00298333330.00.00.00553922870.00.00.01250.0125
8.00.00160.00.00.00420718640.00.00.00.0125
8.17.6458335E-40.00.00.00300412830.00.00.00.0125
8.23.4166666E-40.00.00.00203816030.00.00.00.0125
8.36.0416667E-50.00.08.669245E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

28 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.684468.3571428.1785721.90237095.9285716.92857110.46428613.321428
5.16.8637846.6071435.8571431.52370894.6071435.4642868.28571410.607142
5.25.42150835.2142864.7142861.22028983.6071434.2857146.5714298.392858
5.34.2784794.1428574.00.98057312.78571443.3571435.1785716.642857
5.43.36649583.253.03571440.78682622.1428572.6071434.1071435.25
5.52.6428132.57142852.3928570.634802761.64285722.03571443.254.142857
5.62.06854822.02.03571440.51175881.251.57142852.53571443.25
5.71.61319111.57142851.46428570.41418460.92857141.21428572.02.5714285
5.81.2508341.21428571.14285720.33513850.714285730.92857141.57142852.0
5.90.95352940.92857140.892857130.270222340.50.67857141.21428571.5357143
6.00.75419540.750.67857140.22602980.357142870.535714270.964285731.25
6.10.58048950.57142860.535714270.18937860.250.392857130.751.0
6.20.457252120.428571430.392857130.160358770.178571430.28571430.607142870.8214286
6.30.358590330.357142870.321428570.136577050.142857150.214285720.50.64285713
6.40.28023320.28571430.250.116517920.0714285750.178571430.392857130.53571427
6.50.216273110.214285720.178571430.100039520.0357142870.107142860.321428570.42857143
6.60.168058830.142857150.142857150.085727880.0357142870.0714285750.250.35714287
6.70.129300420.107142860.107142860.073480770.00.0714285750.214285720.2857143
6.80.1018466350.107142860.0714285750.06409820.00.0357142870.178571430.25
6.90.079491590.0714285750.0714285750.056004630.00.0357142870.142857150.21428572
7.00.0622373930.0714285750.0357142870.0492661330.00.00.107142860.17857143
7.10.047298320.0357142870.0357142870.042259060.00.00.0714285750.14285715
7.20.0357647050.0357142870.00.0360029970.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.30.0280357130.0357142870.00.0316952650.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.40.0213928580.00.00.0275164790.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.50.0152142860.00.00.0230657960.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.60.0114306720.00.00.0196601520.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.70.0080420170.00.00.0164167490.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.80.005474790.00.00.0134205330.00.00.00.035714287
7.90.00297899150.00.00.0099884470.00.00.00.035714287
8.00.00160294120.00.00.00741475540.00.00.00.035714287
8.17.6890754E-40.00.00.00518360550.00.00.00.0
8.23.445378E-40.00.00.00349087620.00.00.00.0
8.36.092437E-50.00.00.00147382450.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Variability Duration Dependence

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Duration Dependence Plot

Download CSV Here

Duration (years)MeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
1.08.6756587.06.08.0653342.04.012.026.0
4.08.6756587.56.54.52831133.755.511.2521.0
8.08.6767787.8757.03.3811864.756.011.018.0
12.08.6782078.07.33333352.8232645.16666656.333333510.91666716.333334
16.08.6767788.1257.31252.48186475.3756.562510.7515.25
20.08.6756588.27.252.24068435.66.710.6514.5
24.08.6831568.2916677.70833352.06163335.79166656.791666510.54166713.916667
28.08.684468.3571428.1785721.90237095.9285716.92857110.46428613.321428
32.08.6831568.3757.968751.78385136.031257.0312510.37513.0
36.08.6864988.4166677.751.687116.1388897.11111110.30555512.722222
40.08.6831568.458.051.59670236.2257.17510.27512.35
44.08.6827468.4772737.9090911.51835666.3181827.227272510.15909112.159091
48.08.6831568.4791677.72916651.45821076.3757.291666510.12512.041667
52.08.6864988.5192318.0192311.39819096.46153837.307692510.07692311.865385
56.08.6933038.5357148.3571421.33717326.57.39285710.011.714286
60.08.6831568.5333348.251.28879036.56666667.41666659.96666611.5
64.08.6933038.5468758.6406251.24112226.6257.468759.95312511.40625
68.08.684468.5735298.2647061.20026356.70588257.48529439.88235311.308824
72.08.6983428.5972228.3194451.17048936.72222237.52777779.84722211.305555
76.08.6895278.5921058.5921051.1378066.757.56578979.81578911.25
80.08.6831568.58758.3751.10436346.78757.58759.787511.1125
84.08.7046058.6190478.3571421.0790436.83333357.6547629.77380911.071428
88.08.6974128.6477278.5340911.03757126.8757.64772759.71590910.909091
92.08.6893788.6304358.6630431.01922686.9021747.68478259.69565210.913043
96.08.6831568.6041678.468750.987533456.94791657.718759.67708310.802083
100.08.6756588.618.140.95854056.987.739.6310.75
200.08.71285258.698.870.61982477.5558.19.3359.955
300.08.7616438.7566678.9333330.48113597.868.2666669.2433339.76
400.08.71285258.6958.88750.41925627.918.31759.13259.5825
500.08.6756588.6748.8320.366628327.9588.3129.0469.37

Simulation Stationarity

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Stationarity Plot

Moment Rate Plot

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 313 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0458141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0040340.732 (73.20%)[70.32% 75.90%]0.0016180.047238618
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0307261.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.001060.374 (37.40%)[34.41% 40.49%]4.38E-40.03419009
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0203181.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0018060.417 (41.70%)[38.63% 44.83%]6.32E-40.016211301
Mendocino0.019671.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]9.94E-40.355 (35.50%)[32.55% 38.57%]4.42E-40.028919645
Cerro Prieto0.0143261.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.86E-40.232 (23.20%)[20.64% 25.97%]2.48E-40.015186971
Imperial0.0124981.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.36E-40.234 (23.40%)[20.83% 26.17%]2.98E-40.014349225
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0117621.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.82E-40.195 (19.50%)[17.12% 22.12%]2.06E-40.013392845
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0103141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.68E-40.232 (23.20%)[20.64% 25.97%]2.62E-40.009440966
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0092641.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.96E-40.296 (29.60%)[26.80% 32.55%]3.74E-40.008909097
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev0.0087860.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]2.58E-40.073 (7.30%)[5.80% 9.14%]9.0E-50.008455746

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 305 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
Cerro Prieto0.0122481.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.14E-40.213 (21.30%)[18.83% 24.00%]2.28E-40.013091409
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0115741.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.26E-40.227 (22.70%)[20.16% 25.45%]2.46E-40.012216282
Mendocino0.0098941.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.26E-40.260 (26.00%)[23.33% 28.86%]2.84E-40.012516479
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0087161.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.5E-40.199 (19.90%)[17.50% 22.54%]2.14E-40.008140643
Imperial0.0086361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.96E-40.159 (15.90%)[13.72% 18.35%]1.76E-40.0096799815
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.008251.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.62E-40.151 (15.10%)[12.97% 17.51%]1.58E-40.009075132
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0073181.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.72E-40.219 (21.90%)[19.40% 24.62%]2.26E-40.0067372364
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0072020.997 (99.70%)[99.05% 99.92%]4.38E-40.181 (18.10%)[15.79% 20.66%]2.0E-40.00821497
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0068980.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]4.22E-40.165 (16.50%)[14.28% 18.98%]1.5E-40.0067538084
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0065881.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.74E-40.217 (21.70%)[19.21% 24.41%]2.3E-40.006658823

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 272 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.007120.991 (99.10%)[98.23% 99.56%]4.04E-40.181 (18.10%)[15.79% 20.66%]1.88E-40.007612852
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.005941.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.02E-40.214 (21.40%)[18.92% 24.10%]2.26E-40.005722108
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0058741.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.08E-40.217 (21.70%)[19.21% 24.41%]2.3E-40.0057427646
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0056380.990 (99.00%)[98.10% 99.49%]3.2E-40.144 (14.40%)[12.31% 16.77%]1.4E-40.0062776324
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0054580.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]3.98E-40.167 (16.70%)[14.47% 19.19%]1.66E-40.0052993274
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0049781.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.72E-40.156 (15.60%)[13.44% 18.03%]1.58E-40.0051040766
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0049281.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.72E-40.163 (16.30%)[14.09% 18.77%]1.6E-40.005556243
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0047120.976 (97.60%)[96.39% 98.42%]3.18E-40.135 (13.50%)[11.47% 15.81%]1.28E-40.004749499
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0046481.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.6E-40.153 (15.30%)[13.16% 17.72%]1.54E-40.0045623486
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0046220.993 (99.30%)[98.50% 99.69%]3.4E-40.152 (15.20%)[13.06% 17.61%]1.36E-40.0049385377

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 211 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.004881.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.68E-40.155 (15.50%)[13.34% 17.93%]1.56E-40.0049894005
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0045181.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.54E-40.151 (15.10%)[12.97% 17.51%]1.52E-40.0044245115
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.004420.986 (98.60%)[97.60% 99.20%]3.16E-40.138 (13.80%)[11.75% 16.13%]1.28E-40.0045267143
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0042180.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]3.38E-40.147 (14.70%)[12.59% 17.08%]1.48E-40.004201805
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.004040.986 (98.60%)[97.60% 99.20%]3.22E-40.142 (14.20%)[12.13% 16.55%]1.46E-40.0040264158
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0039240.992 (99.20%)[98.36% 99.63%]2.68E-40.124 (12.40%)[10.45% 14.64%]1.08E-40.0045710644
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0036160.942 (94.20%)[92.52% 95.53%]2.54E-40.112 (11.20%)[9.35% 13.36%]1.02E-40.0037959707
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0034480.878 (87.80%)[85.57% 89.73%]1.94E-40.088 (8.80%)[7.15% 10.77%]8.2E-50.0038110747
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM0.0031520.940 (94.00%)[92.30% 95.35%]2.14E-40.099 (9.90%)[8.15% 11.96%]9.4E-50.0035515025
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0030960.910 (91.00%)[89.01% 92.67%]2.18E-40.101 (10.10%)[8.34% 12.18%]9.6E-50.0032088608

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 55 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0014580.584 (58.40%)[55.27% 61.47%]8.2E-50.040 (4.00%)[2.91% 5.46%]4.0E-50.0018098651
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0014340.573 (57.30%)[54.16% 60.38%]8.4E-50.041 (4.10%)[2.99% 5.57%]4.2E-50.0017508415
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0014280.570 (57.00%)[53.86% 60.09%]8.2E-50.040 (4.00%)[2.91% 5.46%]4.0E-50.0017453934
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0014180.569 (56.90%)[53.76% 59.99%]7.8E-50.038 (3.80%)[2.74% 5.23%]3.8E-50.0017636013
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0014040.561 (56.10%)[52.96% 59.20%]8.2E-50.040 (4.00%)[2.91% 5.46%]4.2E-50.0017193216
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0013420.550 (55.00%)[51.85% 58.11%]7.0E-50.034 (3.40%)[2.40% 4.77%]3.6E-50.0016807786
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0012140.504 (50.40%)[47.26% 53.54%]6.8E-50.033 (3.30%)[2.32% 4.66%]3.6E-50.0015122787
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0011040.458 (45.80%)[42.68% 48.95%]6.0E-50.029 (2.90%)[1.99% 4.19%]3.4E-50.0014250289
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM7.74E-40.337 (33.70%)[30.79% 36.74%]4.4E-50.021 (2.10%)[1.34% 3.25%]2.2E-50.0010319632
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM6.86E-40.305 (30.50%)[27.68% 33.47%]4.4E-50.021 (2.10%)[1.34% 3.25%]2.2E-59.2652056E-4

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 1000,
  "duration": 500.0,
  "startYear": 2012,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 1615583802810,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_triggered_descendants",
      "descendantsOnly": true
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Start 2012, 500 yr, Scale Factor 1.3, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2021_03_12-Start2012_500yr_ScaleFactor1p3_Spontaneous_HistoricalCatalog",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.3,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "maxPointSourceMag": 10.0,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --scale-factor 1.3 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec",
  "configTime": 1615583802810
}