Start 2012, 500 yr, NoERT, Scale Factor 1.15, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog Results

Start 2012, 500 yr, NoERT, Scale Factor 1.15, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog
Num Simulations1000
Start Time2012/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1325376000000
Duration500 Years
Includes Spontaneous?true
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Trigger Ruptures60366 Trigger Ruptures
First: M7.3 at 1852/01/05 04:40:39 UTC
Last: M3.2 at 2011/12/31 19:14:44 UTC
Largest: M7.9 at 1857/01/09 16:25:39 UTC
Config Generated Withu3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --prob-model NO_ERT --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --scale-factor 1.15 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec

Table Of Contents

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous

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Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥58.7468.0249.5448.7548.8368.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.16.9276.3387.5566.9227.0026.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.25.4844.9945.9965.4845.4205.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.34.3383.9384.7504.3364.2664.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.43.4283.1003.7683.4223.4903.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.52.7052.4342.9682.7002.6782.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.62.1301.9162.3482.1242.1322.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.71.6731.4941.8501.6721.7061.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.81.3091.1601.4601.3081.3081.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.91.0070.8821.1281.0061.0121.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥60.8060.7040.9060.8040.8020.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.10.6270.5440.7140.6260.6320.6601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.20.5020.4300.5720.5020.5180.5291.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.30.4010.3400.4620.4000.3940.4201.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.40.3190.2720.3700.3180.3100.3321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.50.2480.2060.2920.2480.2440.2601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.60.1950.1600.2320.1960.1980.2051.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.70.1520.1220.1840.1520.1520.1601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.80.1210.0960.1480.1200.1240.1271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.90.0950.0720.1180.0940.0940.1001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥70.0750.0560.0960.0740.0700.0781.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.10.0570.0420.0740.0560.0580.0601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.20.0430.0280.0580.0420.0400.0451.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.30.0340.0220.0460.0340.0360.0351.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.40.0260.0160.0380.0260.0260.0271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.50.0190.0120.0280.0180.0180.0191.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.60.0148.00E-30.0200.0140.0140.0141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.79.30E-34.00E-30.0160.0108.00E-39.58E-31.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.86.45E-32.00E-30.0126.00E-36.00E-36.19E-30.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]0.995 (99.50%)
M≥7.93.51E-30.0008.00E-34.00E-34.00E-33.51E-30.914 (91.40%)[89.45% 93.03%]0.914 (91.40%)
M≥81.77E-30.0006.00E-32.00E-32.00E-32.03E-30.650 (65.00%)[61.94% 67.94%]0.650 (65.00%)
M≥8.17.88E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-30.347 (34.70%)[31.76% 37.75%]0.347 (34.70%)
M≥8.23.48E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0004.48E-40.166 (16.60%)[14.38% 19.09%]0.166 (16.60%)
M≥8.35.60E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-40.028 (2.80%)[1.90% 4.08%]0.028 (2.80%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)

Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

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Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥50.4530.1861.0240.3880.3268.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.095
M≥5.10.3590.1460.8200.3080.2586.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.076
M≥5.20.2840.1140.6540.2440.2145.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.061
M≥5.30.2250.0860.5260.1920.1664.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.048
M≥5.40.1780.0660.4140.1500.1223.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.038
M≥5.50.1410.0520.3240.1200.1162.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.031
M≥5.60.1110.0400.2560.0960.0782.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.025
M≥5.70.0870.0300.2020.0760.0641.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.020
M≥5.80.0680.0220.1580.0600.0521.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.016
M≥5.90.0520.0140.1220.0460.0381.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.998 (99.80%)0.013
M≥60.0420.0120.0980.0360.0320.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.998 (99.80%)0.010
M≥6.10.0328.00E-30.0760.0280.0200.6601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.994 (99.40%)8.08E-3
M≥6.20.0266.00E-30.0620.0240.0180.5290.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]0.992 (99.20%)6.72E-3
M≥6.30.0224.00E-30.0520.0200.0160.4200.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]0.990 (99.00%)5.59E-3
M≥6.40.0172.00E-30.0420.0160.0120.3320.985 (98.50%)[97.48% 99.13%]0.981 (98.10%)4.41E-3
M≥6.50.0130.0000.0340.0120.0100.2600.973 (97.30%)[96.04% 98.18%]0.968 (96.80%)3.45E-3
M≥6.60.0110.0000.0280.0106.00E-30.2050.960 (96.00%)[94.54% 97.09%]0.954 (95.40%)2.71E-3
M≥6.78.34E-30.0000.0228.00E-34.00E-30.1600.929 (92.90%)[91.08% 94.38%]0.923 (92.30%)2.17E-3
M≥6.86.85E-30.0000.0186.00E-34.00E-30.1270.899 (89.90%)[87.82% 91.66%]0.890 (89.00%)1.75E-3
M≥6.95.64E-30.0000.0164.00E-34.00E-30.1000.866 (86.60%)[84.29% 88.62%]0.857 (85.70%)1.42E-3
M≥74.72E-30.0000.0144.00E-32.00E-30.0780.825 (82.50%)[79.97% 84.78%]0.814 (81.40%)1.15E-3
M≥7.13.67E-30.0000.0122.00E-32.00E-30.0600.762 (76.20%)[73.41% 78.78%]0.751 (75.10%)8.38E-4
M≥7.22.88E-30.0000.0102.00E-30.0000.0450.688 (68.80%)[65.81% 71.64%]0.680 (68.00%)6.28E-4
M≥7.32.42E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0350.629 (62.90%)[59.81% 65.89%]0.625 (62.50%)5.16E-4
M≥7.41.93E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0270.542 (54.20%)[51.05% 57.32%]0.540 (54.00%)3.92E-4
M≥7.51.40E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0190.447 (44.70%)[41.60% 47.85%]0.446 (44.60%)2.84E-4
M≥7.61.14E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0140.397 (39.70%)[36.66% 42.82%]0.397 (39.70%)2.36E-4
M≥7.78.22E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0009.58E-30.322 (32.20%)[29.33% 35.21%]0.322 (32.20%)1.72E-4
M≥7.86.40E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0006.19E-30.265 (26.50%)[23.81% 29.37%]0.265 (26.50%)1.30E-4
M≥7.93.54E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0003.51E-30.161 (16.10%)[13.91% 18.56%]0.161 (16.10%)6.00E-5
M≥81.78E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0002.03E-30.085 (8.50%)[6.88% 10.45%]0.085 (8.50%)2.60E-5
M≥8.19.00E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-30.044 (4.40%)[3.25% 5.91%]0.044 (4.40%)8.00E-6
M≥8.23.80E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.48E-40.019 (1.90%)[1.18% 3.01%]0.019 (1.90%)2.00E-6
M≥8.34.00E-60.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-42.00E-3 (0.20%)[0.03% 0.80%]2.00E-3 (0.20%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Long Term Rate Variability

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162 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.7548838.7098778.7654320.79307657.36419777.95061739.561728510.41358
5.16.9342496.89506156.8456790.64048755.7962966.29012357.59259278.277778
5.25.4899015.456795.2037040.51642434.5679014.98148166.01851846.580247
5.34.3425334.3148154.1234570.419887963.58641983.9197534.7716055.216049
5.43.43135383.40740753.2716050.339915342.82716063.09259253.77777774.148148
5.52.70739722.6913582.79012350.277409882.20370362.43209892.98148163.2901235
5.62.13245682.1172841.98148140.226551411.72222221.91358032.35802462.6111112
5.71.67467281.66049391.59876540.18452091.33950611.49382711.85802472.0679011
5.81.31068931.30246911.25308640.149568681.04320991.16049391.45679011.6358025
5.91.00772831.00.98148150.122971140.790123460.882716061.12962961.2654321
6.00.806405370.802469130.820987640.103145370.62962960.70370370.90740741.0246913
6.10.627997930.62345680.62345680.0869948040.475308660.5370370.71604940.80864197
6.20.50280040.50.475308660.073058330.364197520.432098780.57407410.654321
6.30.40169340.401234570.40740740.0617578550.290123460.339506180.462962960.52469134
6.40.31903910.31481480.308641970.0529848860.222222220.26543210.370370360.42592594
6.50.248839510.246913580.240740750.045147610.166666670.20370370.29629630.33950618
6.60.195629630.191358030.172839510.038529170.129629630.154320990.23456790.27160493
6.70.15175720.148148150.154320990.0325042640.092592590.117283950.185185180.21604939
6.80.120763380.117283950.117283950.0274437720.0740740750.092592590.148148150.17901234
6.90.095094650.092592590.0864197540.0233844220.0555555560.0740740750.117283950.14197531
7.00.075150210.0740740750.0740740750.0202000070.0370370370.0555555560.092592590.11728395
7.10.057286010.0555555560.0555555560.017364320.0246913580.0370370370.0740740750.09259259
7.20.0429773670.0432098770.0432098770.0143721350.0185185190.0308641980.0555555560.074074075
7.30.03418930.0308641980.0308641980.0125515320.0123456790.0246913580.0432098770.061728396
7.40.026388890.0246913580.0246913580.0108263260.00617283960.0185185190.0370370370.049382716
7.50.0185905340.0185185190.0185185190.0089315050.00617283960.0123456790.0246913580.037037037
7.60.0136851850.0123456790.0123456790.0071719550.00.00617283960.0185185190.030864198
7.70.0093353910.00617283960.00617283960.00562998140.00.00617283960.0123456790.018518519
7.80.00648148130.00617283960.00617283960.00461451570.00.00.0123456790.018518519
7.90.00352469130.00617283960.00.0037528920.00.00.00617283960.012345679
8.00.00178395060.00.00.00292681340.00.00.00617283960.0061728396
8.17.983539E-40.00.00.00208972460.00.00.00.0061728396
8.23.4979425E-40.00.00.00142718870.00.00.00.0061728396
8.35.7613168E-50.00.05.935634E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

80 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.7553668.6757.83751.21998926.63757.53759.962511.4125
5.16.93492946.8757.0750.980856665.2255.96257.99.0625
5.25.4903695.43755.150.78758744.11254.76.26257.2
5.34.3429274.34.4250.633597253.2253.71254.96255.725
5.43.43184383.38753.36250.509197242.5252.93753.9254.5375
5.52.70795422.6752.56250.413728181.9752.33.11253.6125
5.62.1330272.11252.1250.336670551.53751.82.46252.8625
5.71.6753251.66251.63750.271139951.18751.41251.93752.2625
5.81.31116251.31.31250.218692690.9251.11.5251.7875
5.91.00800841.01.01250.178082620.70.83751.18751.4
6.00.80673330.80.750.149426770.53750.66250.951.125
6.10.62828960.6250.6250.125160050.41250.50.750.9
6.20.50303540.50.4750.1058393050.31250.40.61250.725
6.30.401779170.40.3750.090392150.23750.31250.48750.5875
6.40.319079160.31250.30.078247050.1750.23750.40.4875
6.50.248831260.23750.23750.066887370.1250.18750.31250.3875
6.60.19563750.18750.1750.0574350170.10.13750.250.3125
6.70.151764590.150.16250.0487530530.06250.10.20.25
6.80.120745830.11250.10.0420902560.050.0750.16250.2125
6.90.095066670.08750.08750.0362620060.03750.06250.1250.175
7.00.07510.0750.0750.0316941850.0250.03750.11250.1375
7.10.0572166670.050.050.0269510150.01250.0250.08750.1125
7.20.0429250.03750.03750.022539240.00.0250.06250.0875
7.30.0341666680.03750.0250.0197295080.00.01250.050.075
7.40.0263583320.0250.0250.0170180280.00.01250.03750.0625
7.50.01858750.01250.01250.0141080150.00.00.03750.05
7.60.01370.01250.01250.011660010.00.00.0250.0375
7.70.0093520830.01250.01250.0093408820.00.00.01250.025
7.80.00648541660.00.00.0076748230.00.00.01250.025
7.90.00352916660.00.00.0059898510.00.00.01250.0125
8.00.001781250.00.00.0044169490.00.00.00.0125
8.17.9791667E-40.00.00.00305569750.00.00.00.0125
8.23.5E-40.00.00.00206215910.00.00.00.0125
8.35.625E-50.00.08.366367E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

28 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.7565868.3214287.5714292.1826825.6071436.71428610.82142814.035714
5.16.93601276.6071436.251.75084514.3928575.3214298.57142811.178572
5.25.49121245.255.01.40372313.42857154.1785716.8214298.892858
5.34.3438054.1428573.96428561.12807232.6428573.28571445.3928577.035714
5.43.43255043.28571443.03571440.90757282.07142852.57142854.2857145.607143
5.52.70865752.6071432.3571430.732665541.57142852.03571443.3928574.428571
5.62.13370372.03571441.89285720.59287251.21428571.57142852.71428563.5357144
5.71.67584041.60714281.53571430.47845060.92857141.21428572.1428572.7857144
5.81.31160931.251.14285720.38673020.67857140.92857141.67857152.2142856
5.91.00833190.964285730.92857140.312868360.50.714285731.32142851.7142857
6.00.80703150.785714270.67857140.261794180.392857130.57142861.03571431.3928572
6.10.628502130.607142870.57142860.2191220.250.428571430.82142861.1071428
6.20.503184850.50.428571430.186280010.178571430.321428570.67857140.9285714
6.30.401913850.392857130.357142870.159179360.142857150.250.57142860.75
6.40.319161770.321428570.28571430.137371170.107142860.178571430.46428570.64285713
6.50.248899160.250.214285720.1171226950.0714285750.142857150.357142870.5
6.60.195699570.178571430.178571430.100627880.0357142870.107142860.28571430.42857143
6.70.151781510.142857150.107142860.085739010.00.0714285750.250.35714287
6.80.1207542050.107142860.107142860.074448620.00.0357142870.178571430.2857143
6.90.095075630.0714285750.0714285750.064344750.00.0357142870.142857150.25
7.00.075105040.0714285750.0714285750.0566535330.00.0357142870.142857150.21428572
7.10.0572100840.0357142870.0357142870.048762860.00.00.107142860.17857143
7.20.042924370.0357142870.0357142870.0412924620.00.00.0714285750.14285715
7.30.034153360.0357142870.00.0361699160.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.40.0263550410.0357142870.00.0312570860.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.50.0185693280.00.00.0259704220.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.60.01368697450.00.00.0217797250.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.70.0093613440.00.00.0177686960.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.80.00649579850.00.00.0145707380.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.90.00353151260.00.00.01093188950.00.00.00.035714287
8.00.0017773110.00.00.0077953020.00.00.00.035714287
8.17.920168E-40.00.00.00525918460.00.00.00.0
8.23.5084033E-40.00.00.00352234630.00.00.00.0
8.35.672269E-50.00.00.00142217890.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Variability Duration Dependence

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Duration Dependence Plot

Download CSV Here

Duration (years)MeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
1.08.746347.05.09.09569551.03.012.030.0
4.08.746347.56.255.1514913.55.011.7523.25
8.08.7485697.757.03.8296024.3755.7511.62519.25
12.08.7499758.06.91666653.2126264.83333356.083333511.33333317.25
16.08.7485698.1257.3752.82205775.1256.312511.187516.0625
20.08.746348.27.352.54476955.36.511.0515.2
24.08.7553668.257.58333352.32591185.56.62510.95833314.5
28.08.7565868.3214287.5714292.1826825.6071436.71428610.82142814.035714
32.08.7553668.406257.656252.0310995.756.8437510.687513.65625
36.08.7634498.4166677.69444471.92108745.8888896.944444710.63888913.305555
40.08.7553668.4758.2251.7975586.07.02510.52512.925
44.08.755258.57.9318181.71333556.04545457.113636510.43181812.681818
48.08.7553668.56257.52083351.63926946.16666657.145833510.37512.458333
52.08.7634498.5769238.3269231.57551976.2307697.211538310.32692312.307693
56.08.7696488.6258.4107141.51653976.3214297.26785710.26785812.160714
60.08.7553668.6166678.21.44610436.3666677.316666610.16666712.016666
64.08.7696488.6406258.4531251.40423766.406257.37510.1562511.875
68.08.7565868.6323538.10294151.35521926.51470577.39705910.08823511.661765
72.08.7796648.6805557.97222231.31217046.58333357.444444710.08333311.625
76.08.7646438.6578958.0394741.25856416.59210547.510.011.526316
80.08.7553668.6757.83751.21998926.63757.53759.962511.4125
84.08.7867268.7142868.3333331.20562486.72619067.5714299.97619111.369047
88.08.7740568.7159099.0568181.16604326.6931827.60227259.92045511.272727
92.08.7638268.6847838.6086961.12190386.78260857.64130459.88043511.163043
96.08.7553668.68758.8645831.09280656.83333357.68759.82291711.125
100.08.746348.78.71.06817676.857.699.7911.07
200.08.78766258.7458.720.70537677.488.19.47510.255
300.08.8703948.8166678.5366670.53791787.888.3366679.429.956667
400.08.78766258.77258.78750.452856457.93758.32759.2459.66
500.08.746348.7548.8360.390045058.0248.3449.1349.544

Simulation Stationarity

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Stationarity Plot

Moment Rate Plot

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 313 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0525361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0056860.756 (75.60%)[72.79% 78.21%]0.0015420.047238618
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0344261.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0018920.489 (48.90%)[45.76% 52.05%]4.38E-40.03419009
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0273281.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0032420.455 (45.50%)[42.39% 48.65%]5.88E-40.016211301
Mendocino0.0211741.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0016180.454 (45.40%)[42.29% 48.55%]5.3E-40.028919645
Cerro Prieto0.0168621.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0011340.282 (28.20%)[25.45% 31.12%]2.74E-40.015186971
Imperial0.0136421.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0010320.328 (32.80%)[29.91% 35.82%]3.6E-40.014349225
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.012761.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.54E-40.293 (29.30%)[26.51% 32.25%]2.72E-40.013392845
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0124760.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]8.7E-40.248 (24.80%)[22.18% 27.62%]2.52E-40.009440966
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev0.0113860.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]5.06E-40.090 (9.00%)[7.33% 10.99%]1.02E-40.008455746
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0113361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0014140.364 (36.40%)[33.43% 39.48%]4.02E-40.008909097

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 306 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
Cerro Prieto0.0144341.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]9.98E-40.273 (27.30%)[24.58% 30.20%]2.5E-40.013091409
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0135521.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]9.48E-40.326 (32.60%)[29.72% 35.62%]2.1E-40.012216282
Mendocino0.0114161.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0010760.366 (36.60%)[33.62% 39.68%]3.44E-40.012516479
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0106240.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]7.22E-40.229 (22.90%)[20.35% 25.66%]2.16E-40.008140643
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0102221.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0011320.303 (30.30%)[27.48% 33.27%]1.78E-40.0067372364
Imperial0.0094741.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.66E-40.234 (23.40%)[20.83% 26.17%]2.14E-40.0096799815
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0090361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.24E-40.226 (22.60%)[20.07% 25.35%]1.96E-40.009075132
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.008941.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.8E-40.272 (27.20%)[24.48% 30.09%]1.32E-40.0067538084
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0082381.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]9.78E-40.307 (30.70%)[27.87% 33.68%]2.66E-40.006658823
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0081861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]7.36E-40.259 (25.90%)[23.23% 28.76%]2.4E-40.00821497

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 273 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0085660.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]7.06E-40.271 (27.10%)[24.39% 29.99%]1.56E-40.007612852
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0071461.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.22E-40.289 (28.90%)[26.13% 31.84%]1.36E-40.005722108
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0070321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]7.54E-40.261 (26.10%)[23.42% 28.96%]1.28E-40.0052993274
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.007031.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]7.92E-40.285 (28.50%)[25.74% 31.43%]1.42E-40.0057427646
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.006410.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]5.26E-40.207 (20.70%)[18.26% 23.37%]1.6E-40.0062776324
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0060361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.62E-40.248 (24.80%)[22.18% 27.62%]1.12E-40.0051040766
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0059720.997 (99.70%)[99.05% 99.92%]5.96E-40.223 (22.30%)[19.78% 25.04%]9.8E-50.004749499
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.005730.993 (99.30%)[98.50% 99.69%]6.32E-40.244 (24.40%)[21.79% 27.21%]8.6E-50.004465195
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.00571.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.92E-40.228 (22.80%)[20.26% 25.55%]1.38E-40.005556243
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0056541.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.18E-40.236 (23.60%)[21.02% 26.38%]1.5E-40.0049385377

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 206 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0058721.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.4E-40.246 (24.60%)[21.98% 27.41%]1.08E-40.0049894005
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0053860.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]5.94E-40.241 (24.10%)[21.50% 26.90%]9.6E-50.0044245115
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0052480.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]5.64E-40.219 (21.90%)[19.40% 24.62%]1.0E-40.0045267143
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0050180.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]5.48E-40.229 (22.90%)[20.35% 25.66%]8.6E-50.004201805
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0047620.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]5.2E-40.217 (21.70%)[19.21% 24.41%]8.0E-50.0040264158
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0043580.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]4.14E-40.172 (17.20%)[14.94% 19.72%]9.0E-50.0045710644
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.004240.962 (96.20%)[94.77% 97.26%]4.4E-40.179 (17.90%)[15.60% 20.45%]8.0E-50.0037959707
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0040120.929 (92.90%)[91.08% 94.38%]3.82E-40.169 (16.90%)[14.66% 19.40%]6.4E-50.0038110747
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0037640.941 (94.10%)[92.41% 95.44%]4.06E-40.174 (17.40%)[15.13% 19.93%]5.6E-50.0032088608
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM0.00360.980 (98.00%)[96.87% 98.74%]3.28E-40.145 (14.50%)[12.41% 16.87%]7.4E-50.0035515025

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 68 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0015960.609 (60.90%)[57.79% 63.93%]1.66E-40.079 (7.90%)[6.34% 9.79%]2.4E-50.0018098651
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0015760.604 (60.40%)[57.28% 63.44%]1.6E-40.077 (7.70%)[6.16% 9.57%]2.4E-50.0017636013
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0015640.605 (60.50%)[57.38% 63.53%]1.64E-40.078 (7.80%)[6.25% 9.68%]2.4E-50.0017508415
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.001560.603 (60.30%)[57.18% 63.34%]1.66E-40.079 (7.90%)[6.34% 9.79%]2.6E-50.0017453934
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0015340.595 (59.50%)[56.38% 62.55%]1.56E-40.074 (7.40%)[5.89% 9.25%]2.2E-50.0017193216
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0014960.584 (58.40%)[55.27% 61.47%]1.54E-40.075 (7.50%)[5.98% 9.35%]2.4E-50.0016807786
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0013460.539 (53.90%)[50.75% 57.02%]1.38E-40.065 (6.50%)[5.09% 8.26%]1.6E-50.0015122787
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.001180.486 (48.60%)[45.46% 51.75%]1.18E-40.056 (5.60%)[4.29% 7.26%]1.0E-50.0014250289
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM8.2E-40.358 (35.80%)[32.84% 38.87%]8.6E-50.042 (4.20%)[3.08% 5.69%]8.0E-60.0010319632
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM7.26E-40.327 (32.70%)[29.81% 35.72%]7.6E-50.037 (3.70%)[2.65% 5.12%]8.0E-69.2652056E-4

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 1000,
  "duration": 500.0,
  "startYear": 2012,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 1615599287396,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_triggered_descendants",
      "descendantsOnly": true
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Start 2012, 500 yr, NoERT, Scale Factor 1.15, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2021_03_12-Start2012_500yr_NoERT_ScaleFactor1p15_Spontaneous_HistoricalCatalog",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "NO_ERT",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.15,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "maxPointSourceMag": 10.0,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --prob-model NO_ERT --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --scale-factor 1.15 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec",
  "configTime": 1615599287396
}