Start 2012, 1000 yr, Completeness=STRICT, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog Results

Start 2012, 1000 yr, Completeness=STRICT, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog
Num Simulations500
Start Time2012/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1325376000000
Duration1000 Years
Includes Spontaneous?true
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Trigger Ruptures10167 Trigger Ruptures
First: M7.6 at 1872/03/26 10:31:39 UTC
Last: M3.2 at 2011/12/31 19:14:44 UTC
Largest: M7.8 at 1906/04/18 13:12:21 UTC
Config Generated Withu3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 500 --duration-years 1000 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --random-seed 123456789 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec --completeness-model STRICT

Table Of Contents

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous

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Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution1000 yr Probability1000 yr Prob 95% Conf1000 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥57.8237.3618.3527.8287.8518.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.16.1885.7786.6086.1886.2706.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.24.8884.5715.2234.8944.9635.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.33.8563.5894.1203.8603.9244.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.43.0372.8203.2533.0413.0893.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.52.3842.2082.5502.3862.3852.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.61.8671.7271.9991.8661.8662.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.71.4571.3431.5661.4601.4621.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.81.1321.0341.2211.1331.1331.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.90.8620.7840.9290.8610.8481.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥60.6820.6230.7350.6810.6980.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.10.5260.4760.5700.5270.5280.6601.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.20.4150.3730.4550.4150.4150.5291.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.30.3270.2930.3620.3280.3320.4201.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.40.2560.2270.2870.2560.2530.3321.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.50.1980.1720.2230.1990.2000.2601.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.60.1540.1320.1760.1540.1540.2051.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.70.1200.1010.1380.1200.1200.1601.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.80.0940.0780.1100.0940.0970.1271.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.90.0740.0610.0890.0740.0730.1001.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥70.0580.0460.0700.0580.0570.0781.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.10.0440.0340.0550.0440.0450.0601.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.20.0340.0250.0420.0340.0350.0451.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.30.0270.0200.0350.0270.0270.0351.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.40.0210.0140.0270.0210.0210.0271.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.50.0159.00E-30.0210.0150.0140.0191.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.60.0117.00E-30.0160.0110.0110.0141.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.77.93E-35.00E-30.0128.00E-38.00E-39.58E-31.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.85.56E-33.00E-38.00E-36.00E-36.00E-36.19E-31.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.93.04E-31.00E-36.00E-33.00E-33.00E-33.51E-30.982 (98.20%)[96.49% 99.12%]0.982 (98.20%)
M≥81.73E-30.0004.00E-32.00E-31.00E-32.03E-30.902 (90.20%)[87.17% 92.60%]0.902 (90.20%)
M≥8.18.06E-40.0003.00E-31.00E-31.00E-31.02E-30.598 (59.80%)[55.34% 64.10%]0.598 (59.80%)
M≥8.23.48E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0004.48E-40.310 (31.00%)[27.01% 35.29%]0.310 (31.00%)
M≥8.39.00E-50.0001.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-40.084 (8.40%)[6.19% 11.27%]0.084 (8.40%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.95%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.95%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.95%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.95%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.95%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.95%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.95%]0.000 (0.00%)

Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

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Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution1000 yr Probability1000 yr Prob 95% Conf1000 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥50.1220.0600.3040.1020.0788.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]0.982 (98.20%)0.033
M≥5.10.0970.0460.2380.0810.0666.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]0.982 (98.20%)0.026
M≥5.20.0770.0350.1870.0650.0525.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]0.982 (98.20%)0.021
M≥5.30.0600.0270.1470.0510.0464.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]0.982 (98.20%)0.016
M≥5.40.0470.0190.1180.0400.0363.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]0.982 (98.20%)0.013
M≥5.50.0370.0150.0910.0320.0252.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]0.982 (98.20%)0.010
M≥5.60.0290.0110.0750.0250.0212.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]0.982 (98.20%)8.18E-3
M≥5.70.0237.00E-30.0540.0190.0131.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]0.982 (98.20%)6.50E-3
M≥5.80.0175.00E-30.0420.0150.0111.3310.998 (99.80%)[98.71% 99.99%]0.982 (98.20%)5.17E-3
M≥5.90.0133.00E-30.0320.0110.0111.0360.998 (99.80%)[98.71% 99.99%]0.974 (97.40%)3.94E-3
M≥60.0102.00E-30.0259.00E-37.00E-30.8360.996 (99.60%)[98.40% 99.93%]0.972 (97.20%)3.20E-3
M≥6.17.71E-31.00E-30.0217.00E-35.00E-30.6600.994 (99.40%)[98.10% 99.84%]0.958 (95.80%)2.50E-3
M≥6.26.17E-31.00E-30.0175.00E-33.00E-30.5290.986 (98.60%)[97.01% 99.39%]0.946 (94.60%)2.05E-3
M≥6.34.92E-30.0000.0144.00E-32.00E-30.4200.964 (96.40%)[94.26% 97.79%]0.924 (92.40%)1.66E-3
M≥6.44.03E-30.0000.0123.00E-32.00E-30.3320.944 (94.40%)[91.91% 96.18%]0.898 (89.80%)1.39E-3
M≥6.53.11E-30.0000.0102.00E-31.00E-30.2600.912 (91.20%)[88.28% 93.47%]0.854 (85.40%)1.09E-3
M≥6.62.39E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-31.00E-30.2050.838 (83.80%)[80.21% 86.86%]0.792 (79.20%)8.72E-4
M≥6.71.85E-30.0007.00E-31.00E-31.00E-30.1600.756 (75.60%)[71.55% 79.25%]0.716 (71.60%)6.84E-4
M≥6.81.46E-30.0006.00E-31.00E-30.0000.1270.678 (67.80%)[63.48% 71.84%]0.648 (64.80%)5.30E-4
M≥6.91.18E-30.0005.00E-31.00E-30.0000.1000.610 (61.00%)[56.56% 65.27%]0.584 (58.40%)4.36E-4
M≥79.90E-40.0004.00E-31.00E-30.0000.0780.540 (54.00%)[49.52% 58.42%]0.524 (52.40%)3.76E-4
M≥7.17.54E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0600.450 (45.00%)[40.60% 49.48%]0.440 (44.00%)2.86E-4
M≥7.25.94E-40.0003.00E-30.0000.0000.0450.394 (39.40%)[35.12% 43.85%]0.386 (38.60%)2.22E-4
M≥7.34.96E-40.0003.00E-30.0000.0000.0350.346 (34.60%)[30.47% 38.97%]0.344 (34.40%)1.88E-4
M≥7.43.78E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0000.0270.278 (27.80%)[23.96% 31.99%]0.278 (27.80%)1.52E-4
M≥7.52.42E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0000.0190.196 (19.60%)[16.27% 23.41%]0.196 (19.60%)1.06E-4
M≥7.61.82E-40.0001.00E-30.0000.0000.0140.148 (14.80%)[11.87% 18.29%]0.148 (14.80%)7.60E-5
M≥7.71.32E-40.0001.00E-30.0000.0009.58E-30.108 (10.80%)[8.28% 13.94%]0.108 (10.80%)5.20E-5
M≥7.89.40E-50.0001.00E-30.0000.0006.19E-30.076 (7.60%)[5.50% 10.37%]0.076 (7.60%)3.00E-5
M≥7.94.20E-50.0001.00E-30.0000.0003.51E-30.038 (3.80%)[2.37% 5.98%]0.038 (3.80%)1.40E-5
M≥82.40E-50.0000.0000.0000.0002.03E-30.022 (2.20%)[1.16% 4.02%]0.022 (2.20%)6.00E-6
M≥8.11.40E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-30.014 (1.40%)[0.61% 2.99%]0.014 (1.40%)4.00E-6
M≥8.24.00E-60.0000.0000.0000.0004.48E-44.00E-3 (0.40%)[0.07% 1.60%]4.00E-3 (0.40%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-40.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.95%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.95%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.95%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.95%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.95%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.95%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.95%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.95%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Long Term Rate Variability

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162 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.8237867.8148157.7592590.690490256.543217.13580238.59.222222
5.16.188656.1851856.2160490.55352795.1604945.62962966.7283957.3209877
5.24.88851834.87037044.85802460.445848974.05555534.44444475.32098775.796296
5.33.85666663.83950613.78395060.358455423.18518523.4938274.19753074.5925927
5.43.03701643.03086422.98765420.28932432.48765422.74691373.32098773.6234567
5.52.38434362.37654332.4938270.234764771.95679012.1543212.6172842.8703704
5.61.86727171.86419751.91975310.190854181.51234571.67901232.05555562.2530863
5.71.45740741.45679011.51234570.155436871.17283951.30246911.60493831.7777778
5.81.13234161.12962961.09876540.125560020.901234571.00617291.25308641.3827161
5.90.86148970.85802470.8456790.1003534050.66666670.76543210.9629631.0617284
6.00.681884770.679012360.697530870.083002270.524691340.598765430.76543210.8518519
6.10.52548970.524691340.53086420.069102160.395061730.456790120.59259260.6666667
6.20.41453910.413580240.401234570.058269950.302469130.35802470.46913580.537037
6.30.326882720.32716050.345679010.0492189820.23456790.27777780.376543220.42592594
6.40.25617490.253086420.240740750.0423137550.179012340.216049390.29629630.34567901
6.50.197711930.197530870.185185180.0356851030.129629630.160493820.23456790.27160493
6.60.154047330.154320990.148148150.0306579750.098765430.123456790.185185180.21604939
6.70.119473250.117283950.111111110.0262807960.0740740750.092592590.148148150.17283951
6.80.0942119360.092592590.098765430.0226761330.0555555560.0740740750.117283950.14197531
6.90.073925930.0740740750.0740740750.0197679570.0370370370.0555555560.092592590.11728395
7.00.058008230.0555555560.0493827160.0172870290.0246913580.0432098770.0740740750.09259259
7.10.04431070.0432098770.0432098770.01492993350.0185185190.0308641980.0617283960.074074075
7.20.033629630.0308641980.0308641980.0124928910.0123456790.0185185190.0432098770.061728396
7.30.0266008230.0246913580.0246913580.0109388450.00617283960.0185185190.0370370370.049382716
7.40.0205514410.0185185190.0185185190.0094457340.00617283960.0123456790.0308641980.043209877
7.50.0146913580.0123456790.0123456790.0079169720.00.00617283960.0246913580.030864198
7.60.0110308640.0123456790.0123456790.0066339050.00.00617283960.0185185190.024691358
7.70.007921810.00617283960.00617283960.0054530630.00.00.0123456790.018518519
7.80.00555555570.00617283960.00617283960.00453329130.00.00.0123456790.012345679
7.90.00304526740.00.00.003620230.00.00.00617283960.012345679
8.00.00173662560.00.00.00290529150.00.00.00617283960.0061728396
8.18.106996E-40.00.00.00211520630.00.00.00.0061728396
8.23.5185186E-40.00.00.0014399750.00.00.00.0061728396
8.39.259259E-50.00.07.503238E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

80 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.8247777.73757.61251.07228146.06.76258.912510.125
5.16.1898546.11256.050.85626624.7255.33757.06258.0
5.24.88956454.8254.3750.68646523.74.21255.58756.35
5.33.85716683.81253.7250.55099452.93.31254.41255.025
5.43.03743963.03.01250.44310122.26252.63.48753.9625
5.52.38454372.36252.350.355352881.76252.03752.73753.15
5.61.86732081.851.850.285662141.36251.58752.152.475
5.71.45740211.451.41250.229837641.03751.2251.68751.9375
5.81.13218131.1251.08750.185163830.80.951.31251.5125
5.90.86138330.850.83750.147625490.58750.71251.01251.1625
6.00.68183750.6750.6750.122346710.46250.56250.80.9375
6.10.52544790.5250.5250.101323440.33750.4250.6250.7375
6.20.414470820.41250.38750.0853755250.26250.3250.50.6
6.30.32682290.3250.31250.0721629040.20.250.40.475
6.40.256164580.250.250.062404870.150.18750.3250.3875
6.50.197756250.20.20.0535489660.10.150.250.3125
6.60.154050.150.150.0462551080.0750.11250.20.25
6.70.1194354150.11250.11250.0399609060.050.0750.16250.2
6.80.09420.08750.08750.034522120.03750.06250.1250.1625
6.90.073893750.0750.06250.0301567110.0250.03750.10.1375
7.00.057981250.06250.06250.0264392510.01250.03750.08750.1125
7.10.044306250.03750.03750.0229878350.00.0250.06250.1
7.20.0336291680.03750.0250.0197065980.00.01250.050.075
7.30.0266020840.0250.0250.0172228350.00.01250.03750.0625
7.40.020531250.01250.01250.0149060970.00.00.03750.05
7.50.0146895830.01250.01250.0125943310.00.00.0250.0375
7.60.0110250.01250.01250.0106512620.00.00.0250.0375
7.70.007918750.01250.00.0089108240.00.00.01250.025
7.80.00555208330.00.00.00743250130.00.00.01250.025
7.90.00304583340.00.00.00564523970.00.00.01250.0125
8.00.00173541670.00.00.0043819940.00.00.00.0125
8.18.145833E-40.00.00.00309367570.00.00.00.0125
8.23.5208333E-40.00.00.002068110.00.00.00.0125
8.39.375E-50.00.00.00107846470.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

28 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.8218537.4642867.1785711.87226715.1428576.1071439.53571412.464286
5.16.1870145.9285715.6071431.49939844.04.8214297.5714299.928572
5.24.88727334.6785714.2142861.2014743.1071433.78571446.07.857143
5.33.8558493.71428563.78571440.961096352.3928572.96428564.756.214286
5.43.03643872.92857152.8571430.76945871.85714282.32142853.754.892857
5.52.38381222.28571442.21428560.61571981.42857151.78571432.96428563.8214285
5.61.86684691.82142851.53571430.49513781.07142851.39285722.32142853.0357144
5.71.45696531.42857151.250.397617520.82142861.07142851.82142852.357143
5.81.13203671.10714281.10714280.32021240.607142870.82142861.42857151.8571428
5.90.861261250.82142860.82142860.255945530.428571430.607142871.10714281.4285715
6.00.681722460.67857140.642857130.21236790.321428570.46428570.892857131.1428572
6.10.52532040.50.50.176122960.214285720.357142870.714285730.9285714
6.20.41443470.392857130.392857130.149243250.142857150.28571430.57142860.75
6.30.326857150.321428570.28571430.127363280.107142860.214285720.46428570.60714287
6.40.25613060.250.214285720.109789870.0714285750.142857150.357142870.5
6.50.197704080.178571430.178571430.094512980.0357142870.107142860.28571430.39285713
6.60.154046940.142857150.142857150.081407580.0357142870.0714285750.250.32142857
6.70.119506120.107142860.107142860.070748240.00.0357142870.178571430.2857143
6.80.094222450.0714285750.0714285750.0614016470.00.0357142870.142857150.25
6.90.073930610.0714285750.0357142870.05362250.00.0357142870.142857150.21428572
7.00.0580.0357142870.0357142870.0470344460.00.00.107142860.17857143
7.10.0443020430.0357142870.0357142870.0408654180.00.00.0714285750.14285715
7.20.0336367340.0357142870.00.0351037420.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.30.0266040820.0357142870.00.0308661390.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.40.0205408170.00.00.0268270930.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.50.0146795920.00.00.0226689820.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.60.01101836750.00.00.0194106530.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.70.0079122450.00.00.0163286180.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.80.0055428570.00.00.0135700240.00.00.00.035714287
7.90.00303673460.00.00.01011406350.00.00.00.035714287
8.00.0017326530.00.00.00773000760.00.00.00.035714287
8.18.040816E-40.00.00.00529817450.00.00.00.0
8.23.4897958E-40.00.00.00351308570.00.00.00.0
8.39.183674E-50.00.00.00180871480.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Variability Duration Dependence

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Duration Dependence Plot

Download CSV Here

Duration (years)MeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
1.07.8227066.05.07.9357561.03.011.025.0
4.07.8227066.756.04.4603933.254.7510.2520.0
8.07.8227067.06.3753.31942374.05.2510.12517.0
12.07.82137977.16666656.66666652.77298714.41666655.58333359.91666715.333333
16.07.82139547.256.52.43769984.68755.759.87514.25
20.07.8227067.357.02.1932684.855.99.7513.5
24.07.8216387.41666657.1252.00786925.06.04166659.62512.916667
28.07.8218537.4642867.1785711.87226715.1428576.1071439.53571412.464286
32.07.82139547.57.218751.74806235.256.218759.4687512.125
36.07.8237867.55555537.05555531.6494415.3611116.30555539.41666711.805555
40.07.8227067.5756.7751.56318315.456.359.32511.575
44.07.8242217.61363657.29545451.49189675.52272756.38636359.27272711.386364
48.07.8247777.6257.251.40843495.60416656.45833359.20833311.0625
52.07.8222417.65384637.36538461.36459175.65384636.59.15384610.980769
56.07.82646667.6785717.2678571.30698055.7142866.5535719.10714210.767858
60.07.8247777.66666657.08333351.26183595.756.69.0510.716666
64.07.8247777.68757.4843751.21820625.81256.6406259.04687510.515625
68.07.82646667.69117647.29411751.18164785.8529416.67647089.010.514706
72.07.8286567.7361117.41666651.14010075.94444476.68055538.97222210.277778
76.07.8222417.72368437.43421031.10712975.96052656.7368428.92105310.223684
80.07.8247777.73757.61251.07228146.06.76258.912510.125
84.07.830347.72619067.61904761.05002256.0476196.7857148.88095310.071428
88.07.8242217.76136357.42045451.01109046.0909096.8068188.8522739.954545
92.07.8317097.757.23913050.993626536.1521746.8260878.8260879.923913
96.07.8247777.73958357.27083350.964737836.14583356.86458358.81259.84375
100.07.8227067.767.560.949251656.166.868.89.76
200.07.8227067.8057.60.60564276.677.2158.4159.05
300.07.83578877.8266677.8066670.486120136.97.368.3233348.763333
400.07.83788737.82757.82750.407638977.01257.44258.23258.63
500.07.8227067.8188.0320.355759057.1727.4788.1848.53
600.07.8594037.84166677.85333350.308749627.23166667.5566678.1666678.445
700.07.84375437.83571437.930.282814987.32714277.57714278.1242868.412857
800.07.83788737.81257.780.26933897.348757.573758.1158.40375
900.07.83578877.83444457.940.265277657.35222247.5622228.0955558.381111
1000.07.8227067.8287.8510.251116667.3617.5658.0568.352

Simulation Stationarity

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Stationarity Plot

Moment Rate Plot

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 313 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 1000 Year ProbTotal 1000 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 1000 Year ProbTriggered 1000 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0445221.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]0.001160.504 (50.40%)[45.93% 54.86%]3.98E-40.047238618
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0288941.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]2.6E-40.182 (18.20%)[14.97% 21.93%]8.4E-50.03419009
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.019761.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.3E-40.052 (5.20%)[3.49% 7.63%]2.0E-50.016211301
Mendocino0.0180041.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]5.4E-40.324 (32.40%)[28.35% 36.73%]2.06E-40.028919645
Cerro Prieto0.0140161.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]3.82E-40.214 (21.40%)[17.94% 25.31%]1.32E-40.015186971
Imperial0.011871.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]2.76E-40.214 (21.40%)[17.94% 25.31%]1.34E-40.014349225
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0109381.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]2.0E-40.160 (16.00%)[12.96% 19.58%]9.2E-50.013392845
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0097481.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]4.8E-50.030 (3.00%)[1.75% 5.01%]6.0E-60.009440966
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0092281.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]5.9E-40.334 (33.40%)[29.31% 37.75%]2.08E-40.008909097
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev0.008751.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]6.4E-50.034 (3.40%)[2.06% 5.50%]1.8E-50.008455746

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 306 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 1000 Year ProbTotal 1000 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 1000 Year ProbTriggered 1000 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
Cerro Prieto0.0120961.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]3.48E-40.206 (20.60%)[17.19% 24.47%]1.26E-40.013091409
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0110661.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.52E-40.120 (12.00%)[9.35% 15.25%]5.6E-50.012216282
Mendocino0.0091861.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]3.36E-40.242 (24.20%)[20.56% 28.25%]1.32E-40.012516479
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0082241.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]4.4E-50.028 (2.80%)[1.60% 4.77%]6.0E-60.008140643
Imperial0.0081741.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.62E-40.134 (13.40%)[10.60% 16.78%]8.4E-50.0096799815
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0076981.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.4E-40.118 (11.80%)[9.17% 15.03%]6.6E-50.009075132
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.007211.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]5.8E-50.042 (4.20%)[2.68% 6.45%]1.4E-50.0067372364
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0071741.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]2.0E-40.160 (16.00%)[12.96% 19.58%]9.4E-50.00821497
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0067181.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]6.6E-50.042 (4.20%)[2.68% 6.45%]1.4E-50.0067538084
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0065921.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]3.34E-40.226 (22.60%)[19.06% 26.57%]1.16E-40.006658823

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 274 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 1000 Year ProbTotal 1000 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 1000 Year ProbTriggered 1000 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0070661.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.06E-40.096 (9.60%)[7.23% 12.61%]4.4E-50.007612852
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.005651.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.34E-40.110 (11.00%)[8.46% 14.16%]6.6E-50.0062776324
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.005631.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]5.8E-50.046 (4.60%)[3.00% 6.93%]1.0E-50.0057427646
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0056141.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]6.2E-50.050 (5.00%)[3.33% 7.39%]1.2E-50.005722108
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0053041.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]5.2E-50.040 (4.00%)[2.52% 6.22%]1.4E-50.0052993274
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0050721.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.96E-40.172 (17.20%)[14.05% 20.86%]8.8E-50.005556243
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.004821.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]4.2E-50.036 (3.60%)[2.21% 5.74%]1.0E-50.0051040766
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0046121.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.94E-40.154 (15.40%)[12.41% 18.93%]6.8E-50.0049385377
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0045860.998 (99.80%)[98.71% 99.99%]4.8E-50.038 (3.80%)[2.37% 5.98%]1.2E-50.004749499
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0044841.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]4.2E-50.036 (3.60%)[2.21% 5.74%]1.0E-50.0045623486

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 211 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 1000 Year ProbTotal 1000 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 1000 Year ProbTriggered 1000 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.004731.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]4.2E-50.036 (3.60%)[2.21% 5.74%]1.0E-50.0049894005
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0043781.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]4.0E-50.036 (3.60%)[2.21% 5.74%]1.2E-50.0045267143
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0043581.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]4.2E-50.036 (3.60%)[2.21% 5.74%]1.0E-50.0044245115
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0041321.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]4.2E-50.036 (3.60%)[2.21% 5.74%]1.0E-50.004201805
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0040761.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]1.32E-40.114 (11.40%)[8.81% 14.59%]6.6E-50.0045710644
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0039261.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]3.8E-50.032 (3.20%)[1.90% 5.26%]1.0E-50.0040264158
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.003590.994 (99.40%)[98.10% 99.84%]5.4E-50.052 (5.20%)[3.49% 7.63%]2.6E-50.0038110747
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0035540.996 (99.60%)[98.40% 99.93%]3.8E-50.034 (3.40%)[2.06% 5.50%]1.0E-50.0037959707
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM0.0033081.000 (100.00%)[99.05% 100.00%]9.8E-50.084 (8.40%)[6.19% 11.27%]4.6E-50.0035515025
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0030720.994 (99.40%)[98.10% 99.84%]3.0E-50.028 (2.80%)[1.60% 4.77%]1.0E-50.0032088608

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 71 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 1000 Year ProbTotal 1000 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 1000 Year ProbTriggered 1000 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0015220.866 (86.60%)[83.22% 89.40%]2.0E-50.018 (1.80%)[0.88% 3.51%]4.0E-60.0018098651
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0015140.856 (85.60%)[82.14% 88.50%]2.2E-50.020 (2.00%)[1.02% 3.77%]4.0E-60.0017508415
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0015060.858 (85.80%)[82.36% 88.68%]2.2E-50.020 (2.00%)[1.02% 3.77%]4.0E-60.0017453934
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.001480.860 (86.00%)[82.58% 88.86%]1.8E-50.018 (1.80%)[0.88% 3.51%]4.0E-60.0017636013
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0014680.840 (84.00%)[80.42% 87.04%]2.0E-50.018 (1.80%)[0.88% 3.51%]4.0E-60.0017193216
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0014060.842 (84.20%)[80.64% 87.23%]1.6E-50.016 (1.60%)[0.75% 3.26%]2.0E-60.0016807786
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0013080.784 (78.40%)[74.48% 81.88%]1.8E-50.016 (1.60%)[0.75% 3.26%]4.0E-60.0015122787
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0012220.766 (76.60%)[72.59% 80.19%]1.8E-50.018 (1.80%)[0.88% 3.51%]6.0E-60.0014250289
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM8.48E-40.616 (61.60%)[57.16% 65.86%]1.6E-50.016 (1.60%)[0.75% 3.26%]6.0E-60.0010319632
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM7.62E-40.574 (57.40%)[52.92% 61.76%]1.4E-50.014 (1.40%)[0.61% 2.99%]6.0E-69.2652056E-4

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 500,
  "duration": 1000.0,
  "startYear": 2012,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 123456789,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_triggered_descendants",
      "descendantsOnly": true
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Start 2012, 1000 yr, Completeness\u003dSTRICT, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2021_03_03-Start2012_1000yr_CompletenessSTRICT_Spontaneous_HistoricalCatalog",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.14,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "STRICT",
  "maxPointSourceMag": 10.0,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 500 --duration-years 1000 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --random-seed 123456789 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec --completeness-model STRICT",
  "configTime": 1614804087305
}