Start 2012, 500 yr, Completeness=STRICT, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog Results

Start 2012, 500 yr, Completeness=STRICT, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog
Num Simulations1000
Start Time2012/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1325376000000
Duration500 Years
Includes Spontaneous?true
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Trigger Ruptures10167 Trigger Ruptures
First: M7.6 at 1872/03/26 10:31:39 UTC
Last: M3.2 at 2011/12/31 19:14:44 UTC
Largest: M7.8 at 1906/04/18 13:12:21 UTC
Config Generated Withu3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --random-seed 123456789 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec --completeness-model STRICT

Table Of Contents

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous

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Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥57.8847.2408.6147.8767.6588.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.16.2375.7166.8166.2286.2366.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.24.9274.5085.4044.9224.9665.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.33.8853.5304.2783.8823.8144.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.43.0602.7863.3723.0563.1523.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.52.4042.1802.6482.4022.3822.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.61.8841.6962.0761.8781.8522.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.71.4701.3161.6341.4641.4181.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.81.1401.0141.2741.1361.1161.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.90.8690.7760.9820.8640.8421.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥60.6880.6080.7800.6860.6920.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.10.5300.4640.6060.5280.5360.6601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.20.4180.3620.4860.4180.4140.5291.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.30.3290.2780.3820.3280.3160.4201.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.40.2580.2140.3020.2580.2600.3321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.50.2000.1620.2400.2000.1980.2601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.60.1560.1240.1900.1560.1540.2051.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.70.1200.0940.1500.1200.1220.1601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.80.0950.0720.1200.0940.1000.1271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.90.0740.0540.0960.0740.0760.1001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥70.0580.0400.0760.0580.0560.0781.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.10.0440.0300.0580.0440.0460.0601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.20.0340.0220.0460.0340.0360.0451.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.30.0270.0160.0380.0260.0260.0351.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.40.0210.0120.0300.0200.0220.0271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.50.0158.00E-30.0220.0140.0140.0191.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.60.0116.00E-30.0180.0100.0100.0141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.77.84E-34.00E-30.0148.00E-38.00E-39.58E-31.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.85.41E-32.00E-30.0106.00E-34.00E-36.19E-30.997 (99.70%)[99.05% 99.92%]0.997 (99.70%)
M≥7.93.05E-30.0006.00E-32.00E-32.00E-33.51E-30.882 (88.20%)[86.00% 90.10%]0.882 (88.20%)
M≥81.69E-30.0006.00E-32.00E-32.00E-32.03E-30.636 (63.60%)[60.52% 66.57%]0.636 (63.60%)
M≥8.17.48E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-30.337 (33.70%)[30.79% 36.74%]0.337 (33.70%)
M≥8.23.46E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0004.48E-40.168 (16.80%)[14.56% 19.30%]0.168 (16.80%)
M≥8.37.00E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-40.035 (3.50%)[2.49% 4.89%]0.035 (3.50%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)

Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

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Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥50.1930.0840.4900.1620.1148.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.966 (96.60%)0.054
M≥5.10.1520.0620.3980.1280.1006.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.966 (96.60%)0.043
M≥5.20.1200.0480.3060.1020.0825.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.966 (96.60%)0.034
M≥5.30.0950.0380.2380.0800.0584.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.966 (96.60%)0.027
M≥5.40.0740.0260.1840.0620.0643.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.966 (96.60%)0.022
M≥5.50.0580.0200.1420.0480.0442.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.966 (96.60%)0.017
M≥5.60.0450.0140.1160.0380.0282.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.966 (96.60%)0.014
M≥5.70.0350.0100.0880.0300.0241.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.965 (96.50%)0.011
M≥5.80.0276.00E-30.0720.0240.0201.3310.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.965 (96.50%)8.76E-3
M≥5.90.0204.00E-30.0540.0180.0121.0360.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.954 (95.40%)6.70E-3
M≥60.0162.00E-30.0400.0148.00E-30.8360.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]0.946 (94.60%)5.36E-3
M≥6.10.0122.00E-30.0320.0108.00E-30.6600.981 (98.10%)[96.99% 98.82%]0.927 (92.70%)4.12E-3
M≥6.29.39E-30.0000.0268.00E-36.00E-30.5290.963 (96.30%)[94.88% 97.35%]0.903 (90.30%)3.37E-3
M≥6.37.53E-30.0000.0226.00E-36.00E-30.4200.937 (93.70%)[91.97% 95.09%]0.872 (87.20%)2.71E-3
M≥6.46.23E-30.0000.0186.00E-34.00E-30.3320.900 (90.00%)[87.93% 91.75%]0.842 (84.20%)2.28E-3
M≥6.54.93E-30.0000.0144.00E-34.00E-30.2600.842 (84.20%)[81.76% 86.38%]0.785 (78.50%)1.83E-3
M≥6.63.74E-30.0000.0124.00E-32.00E-30.2050.762 (76.20%)[73.41% 78.78%]0.703 (70.30%)1.37E-3
M≥6.72.92E-30.0000.0102.00E-30.0000.1600.689 (68.90%)[65.91% 71.74%]0.638 (63.80%)1.09E-3
M≥6.82.28E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-30.0000.1270.612 (61.20%)[58.09% 64.22%]0.571 (57.10%)8.72E-4
M≥6.91.89E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-30.0000.1000.555 (55.50%)[52.35% 58.60%]0.519 (51.90%)7.32E-4
M≥71.57E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0780.496 (49.60%)[46.46% 52.74%]0.469 (46.90%)6.18E-4
M≥7.11.21E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0600.421 (42.10%)[39.03% 45.23%]0.396 (39.60%)4.74E-4
M≥7.29.50E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0450.353 (35.30%)[32.35% 38.36%]0.336 (33.60%)3.80E-4
M≥7.37.96E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0350.310 (31.00%)[28.16% 33.99%]0.303 (30.30%)3.18E-4
M≥7.46.24E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0270.246 (24.60%)[21.98% 27.41%]0.241 (24.10%)2.46E-4
M≥7.54.48E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0190.189 (18.90%)[16.55% 21.50%]0.188 (18.80%)1.80E-4
M≥7.63.66E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0000.0140.161 (16.10%)[13.91% 18.56%]0.161 (16.10%)1.54E-4
M≥7.72.66E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0009.58E-30.121 (12.10%)[10.18% 14.32%]0.121 (12.10%)1.20E-4
M≥7.81.74E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0006.19E-30.083 (8.30%)[6.70% 10.23%]0.083 (8.30%)7.80E-5
M≥7.98.60E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0003.51E-30.041 (4.10%)[2.99% 5.57%]0.041 (4.10%)2.80E-5
M≥84.40E-50.0000.0000.0000.0002.03E-30.020 (2.00%)[1.26% 3.13%]0.020 (2.00%)2.00E-5
M≥8.12.40E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-30.011 (1.10%)[0.58% 2.02%]0.011 (1.10%)1.00E-5
M≥8.21.20E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.48E-46.00E-3 (0.60%)[0.24% 1.37%]6.00E-3 (0.60%)4.00E-6
M≥8.32.00E-60.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-41.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.01% 0.65%]1.00E-3 (0.10%)2.00E-6
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Long Term Rate Variability

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162 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.88787847.86419778.39506150.692234646.6111117.2160498.543219.351851
5.16.24026736.2283956.456790.55883525.1913585.6851856.7716057.4074073
5.24.9296714.9197535.1604940.44813534.09259274.4876545.35802465.845679
5.33.8873253.8827163.86419750.362415853.22222233.53086424.2345684.6419754
5.43.06201033.05555563.20987650.294100022.51851842.7716053.3456793.6666667
5.52.4054672.40123462.4197530.238739461.9629632.16666672.63580252.9135802
5.61.88526951.87654321.86419750.192716991.51851861.6913582.0740742.2901235
5.71.47055551.4629631.43209870.156609011.17901231.31481481.62345681.808642
5.81.14104941.13580251.10493830.12620140.901234571.01234571.26543211.4135803
5.90.869720160.864197550.85185190.1022018340.679012360.76543210.96913581.0864197
6.00.68834570.68518520.679012360.085310310.524691340.604938270.771604960.8703704
6.10.530119360.53086420.50.0711026340.395061730.456790120.598765430.67901236
6.20.418613170.419753070.419753070.0591760050.308641970.35802470.475308660.537037
6.30.329662560.32716050.31481480.0502573180.23456790.283950630.376543220.43209878
6.40.258728380.259259250.240740750.042662880.179012340.216049390.302469130.34567901
6.50.200222220.197530870.197530870.0364479420.129629630.166666670.23456790.27160493
6.60.155841560.154320990.160493820.0312252450.098765430.123456790.185185180.22222222
6.70.120251030.117283950.111111110.0269117110.067901230.092592590.148148150.17901234
6.80.094722220.092592590.0864197540.0229094480.0493827160.0740740750.117283950.14197531
6.90.0739423860.0740740750.0740740750.0199401620.0370370370.0555555560.092592590.11728395
7.00.0579753070.0555555560.0555555560.0174051490.0246913580.0432098770.0740740750.09259259
7.10.0442366260.0432098770.0432098770.014950510.0185185190.0308641980.0617283960.074074075
7.20.0335637850.0308641980.0308641980.0126827540.0123456790.0185185190.0432098770.061728396
7.30.0266419760.0246913580.0246913580.0108931720.00617283960.0185185190.0370370370.049382716
7.40.0205534980.0185185190.0185185190.0094365470.00617283960.0123456790.0308641980.043209877
7.50.0146111110.0123456790.0123456790.0078494090.00.00617283960.0246913580.030864198
7.60.011086420.0123456790.0123456790.00653772570.00.00617283960.0185185190.024691358
7.70.0078353910.00617283960.00617283960.0053581510.00.00.0123456790.018518519
7.80.00540740740.00617283960.00617283960.0044511150.00.00.0123456790.012345679
7.90.00304732520.00.00.00351703750.00.00.00617283960.012345679
8.00.00168930040.00.00.0028740070.00.00.00617283960.0061728396
8.17.489712E-40.00.00.00202808440.00.00.00.0061728396
8.23.4156378E-40.00.00.00141129470.00.00.00.0061728396
8.36.995885E-50.00.06.534145E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

80 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.88861047.78757.41.06276176.08756.8258.9510.1875
5.16.24116.16256.01250.85449224.78755.38757.08758.075
5.24.93002274.8754.50.68543273.73754.26255.61256.4125
5.33.8875043.853.86250.55188222.9253.33754.43755.075
5.43.06211663.0253.08750.443016142.28752.63753.54.0125
5.52.4055272.3752.31250.35802781.78752.052.76253.1625
5.61.8852251.86251.83750.288050351.3751.62.1752.4875
5.71.47058751.451.38750.232222411.051.251.71.9625
5.81.14099171.1251.13750.186646240.81250.96251.3251.5375
5.90.86967290.86250.86250.149460960.60.7251.01251.175
6.00.688293760.6750.66250.124026080.46250.56250.81250.95
6.10.530089560.5250.51250.103102180.33750.4250.6250.75
6.20.418606250.41250.38750.086383230.26250.33750.50.6
6.30.329645840.3250.30.07373220.20.26250.40.4875
6.40.258735420.250.23750.063352270.150.20.3250.3875
6.50.200243760.20.18750.0536895770.10.150.250.3125
6.60.155843750.150.150.046258350.0750.11250.20.25
6.70.1202833350.11250.11250.040304090.050.0750.16250.2
6.80.09473750.08750.08750.0349339250.03750.06250.1250.175
6.90.073958330.0750.06250.0301836110.0250.050.10.1375
7.00.0580.06250.06250.026420280.01250.03750.08750.1125
7.10.0442479180.03750.03750.0229585670.00.0250.06250.0875
7.20.0335750.03750.0250.0195632150.00.01250.050.075
7.30.0266583340.0250.0250.0170922730.00.01250.03750.0625
7.40.0205833330.0250.01250.0147698780.00.00.03750.05
7.50.01461250.01250.01250.012341320.00.00.0250.0375
7.60.0110791670.01250.01250.0104414030.00.00.0250.0375
7.70.0078354170.01250.00.0087878350.00.00.01250.025
7.80.0054083330.00.00.0072901140.00.00.01250.025
7.90.00304166670.00.00.0055732180.00.00.01250.0125
8.00.00168333330.00.00.0043337020.00.00.00.0125
8.17.458333E-40.00.00.00296963520.00.00.00.0125
8.23.4166666E-40.00.00.00203816030.00.00.00.0125
8.36.875E-50.00.09.24472E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

28 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.8881097.5357147.1071431.8607765.2857146.1785719.60714212.535714
5.16.24079855.9642865.6428571.48884324.1071434.8571437.6071439.892858
5.24.92986774.7142864.5357141.19241813.17857153.82142856.0714297.821429
5.33.88740973.71428563.32142850.9561732.46428563.04.7857146.214286
5.43.06179622.92857152.8928570.7681691.89285722.3571433.78571444.892857
5.52.40541392.32142852.250.6186271.42857151.82142853.03.857143
5.61.88503361.82142851.750.49759071.10714281.42857152.3571433.0357144
5.71.47065761.42857151.250.401217550.82142861.07142851.85714282.392857
5.81.14100641.10714281.00.323706150.607142870.82142861.46428571.8928572
5.90.86974790.857142870.82142860.259763780.428571430.607142871.10714281.4642857
6.00.68838230.67857140.607142870.215252220.321428570.46428570.892857131.1785715
6.10.53017440.50.428571430.179365040.214285720.357142870.714285730.9285714
6.20.418644960.392857130.392857130.151771680.178571430.28571430.57142860.75
6.30.329680680.321428570.28571430.130270170.107142860.214285720.46428570.60714287
6.40.258806740.250.250.112401850.0714285750.142857150.357142870.5
6.50.200306730.178571430.142857150.095984640.0357142870.107142860.28571430.39285713
6.60.155871850.142857150.107142860.082399790.0357142870.0714285750.250.35714287
6.70.1202710050.107142860.107142860.071125370.00.0357142870.178571430.2857143
6.80.094678570.0714285750.0714285750.061887080.00.0357142870.142857150.25
6.90.073918070.0714285750.0357142870.0537297350.00.0357142870.142857150.17857143
7.00.057947480.0357142870.0357142870.0470376760.00.00.107142860.17857143
7.10.0442121850.0357142870.0357142870.0407394580.00.00.0714285750.14285715
7.20.033569330.0357142870.00.035090860.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.30.026647060.0357142870.00.030966140.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.40.0205693280.00.00.0269525050.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.50.0145861350.00.00.0225234930.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.60.011050420.00.00.0193387340.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.70.0078109240.00.00.0161653460.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.80.0053949580.00.00.0133239290.00.00.00.035714287
7.90.00302731080.00.00.0100600470.00.00.00.035714287
8.00.00167647060.00.00.0075936580.00.00.00.035714287
8.17.478992E-40.00.00.00511383730.00.00.00.0
8.23.4033615E-40.00.00.0034697310.00.00.00.0
8.36.932773E-50.00.00.0015720.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Variability Duration Dependence

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Duration Dependence Plot

Download CSV Here

Duration (years)MeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
1.07.8835826.05.07.95707271.03.011.025.0
4.07.8835826.756.04.47511863.254.7510.2520.25
8.07.8851297.1256.3753.32561284.1255.37510.12517.25
12.07.8870187.256.58333352.78058964.55.666666510.015.5
16.07.8851297.31256.52.43680554.81255.81259.87514.375
20.07.8835827.46.452.18290425.06.09.813.45
24.07.88861047.45833357.02.01541975.1256.08333359.70833312.958333
28.07.8881097.5357147.1071431.8607765.2857146.1785719.60714212.535714
32.07.88861047.56257.06251.75509065.3756.281259.562512.1875
36.07.8886887.58333357.02777771.65853815.44444476.33333359.47222211.888889
40.07.88861047.657.051.55816835.556.49.411.575
44.07.8882117.6590917.27272751.48807065.61363656.45454559.36363611.318182
48.07.88861047.68757.251.42556765.68756.52083359.29166711.125
52.07.8886887.69230757.36538461.36980745.756.55769259.2511.076923
56.07.8943687.7321437.4107141.30735595.8214296.6259.19642810.857142
60.07.88861047.7333337.58333351.2604365.8666676.659.13333310.716666
64.07.8943687.7343757.6093751.22248715.9218756.68759.10937510.578125
68.07.8881097.76470576.9705881.17141495.98529436.73529439.05882410.5
72.07.89981467.77777777.31944471.14749536.04166656.7638899.08333310.444445
76.07.8916627.78947357.4868421.11642136.03947356.77631579.010.315789
80.07.88861047.78757.41.06276176.08756.8258.9510.1875
84.07.90115267.7976197.66666651.03479746.0952386.88095248.92857210.166667
88.07.89750437.8181827.51136351.00852956.13636356.89772758.89772710.090909
92.07.89107377.8260877.5217390.98447426.1956526.89130458.8695659.98913
96.07.88861047.81257.68750.96931556.218756.88541658.843759.9375
100.07.8835827.827.10.94247376.246.948.799.92
200.07.9026157.8857.8950.6078146.7657.328.499.12
300.07.94600347.927.65666680.470093257.067.48666678.4066678.933333
400.07.9026157.88757.9050.39467067.16257.51758.29258.7125
500.07.8835827.8767.6580.347883737.247.5388.2368.614

Simulation Stationarity

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Stationarity Plot

Moment Rate Plot

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 313 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.043311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0018280.447 (44.70%)[41.60% 47.85%]7.64E-40.047238618
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0290621.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.28E-40.167 (16.70%)[14.47% 19.19%]1.8E-40.03419009
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0189081.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.94E-40.051 (5.10%)[3.86% 6.70%]3.8E-50.016211301
Mendocino0.0182861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.42E-40.307 (30.70%)[27.87% 33.68%]3.9E-40.028919645
Cerro Prieto0.0139221.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.46E-40.184 (18.40%)[16.07% 20.97%]2.16E-40.015186971
Imperial0.0118161.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.16E-40.176 (17.60%)[15.32% 20.14%]1.98E-40.014349225
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0109981.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.24E-40.138 (13.80%)[11.75% 16.13%]1.64E-40.013392845
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.00960.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]8.0E-50.027 (2.70%)[1.82% 3.96%]8.0E-60.009440966
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0087761.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]9.1E-40.310 (31.00%)[28.16% 33.99%]4.18E-40.008909097
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev0.0082540.990 (99.00%)[98.10% 99.49%]7.8E-50.028 (2.80%)[1.90% 4.08%]3.2E-50.008455746

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 306 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
Cerro Prieto0.0119941.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.52E-40.167 (16.70%)[14.47% 19.19%]1.94E-40.013091409
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0112020.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]2.28E-40.099 (9.90%)[8.15% 11.96%]1.02E-40.012216282
Mendocino0.0092441.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.56E-40.222 (22.20%)[19.69% 24.93%]2.62E-40.012516479
Imperial0.0081941.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]2.44E-40.108 (10.80%)[8.98% 12.93%]1.2E-40.0096799815
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0080940.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]7.4E-50.025 (2.50%)[1.66% 3.72%]8.0E-60.008140643
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0077881.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]2.16E-40.095 (9.50%)[7.79% 11.53%]1.1E-40.009075132
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0070941.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.0E-40.039 (3.90%)[2.82% 5.34%]2.8E-50.0067372364
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0068740.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]2.7E-40.122 (12.20%)[10.27% 14.43%]1.46E-40.00821497
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0066140.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]1.04E-40.041 (4.10%)[2.99% 5.57%]2.8E-50.0067538084
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0062560.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]5.9E-40.230 (23.00%)[20.45% 25.76%]2.64E-40.006658823

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 273 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0070180.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]1.84E-40.085 (8.50%)[6.88% 10.45%]8.6E-50.007612852
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.005751.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.18E-40.050 (5.00%)[3.77% 6.59%]3.6E-50.0057427646
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.005691.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.3E-40.055 (5.50%)[4.21% 7.15%]4.2E-50.005722108
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0054040.994 (99.40%)[98.63% 99.76%]1.78E-40.085 (8.50%)[6.88% 10.45%]9.2E-50.0062776324
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.005321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]9.6E-50.039 (3.90%)[2.82% 5.34%]2.8E-50.0052993274
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.004910.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]1.1E-40.046 (4.60%)[3.42% 6.14%]3.2E-50.0051040766
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0047020.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]3.32E-40.141 (14.10%)[12.03% 16.45%]1.52E-40.005556243
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0046280.994 (99.40%)[98.63% 99.76%]1.06E-40.046 (4.60%)[3.42% 6.14%]3.4E-50.0045623486
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.004560.976 (97.60%)[96.39% 98.42%]8.2E-50.037 (3.70%)[2.65% 5.12%]2.4E-50.004749499
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0043920.967 (96.70%)[95.34% 97.68%]1.18E-40.052 (5.20%)[3.94% 6.81%]4.2E-50.004465195

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 211 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0048260.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]1.06E-40.045 (4.50%)[3.34% 6.02%]3.2E-50.0049894005
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0044860.992 (99.20%)[98.36% 99.63%]1.04E-40.045 (4.50%)[3.34% 6.02%]3.4E-50.0044245115
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0044240.993 (99.30%)[98.50% 99.69%]9.0E-50.039 (3.90%)[2.82% 5.34%]2.8E-50.0045267143
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0042220.990 (99.00%)[98.10% 99.49%]9.8E-50.044 (4.40%)[3.25% 5.91%]3.4E-50.004201805
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.004040.983 (98.30%)[97.23% 98.97%]9.8E-50.044 (4.40%)[3.25% 5.91%]3.4E-50.0040264158
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.003780.983 (98.30%)[97.23% 98.97%]2.58E-40.114 (11.40%)[9.53% 13.57%]1.2E-40.0045710644
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0035520.939 (93.90%)[92.19% 95.27%]7.2E-50.034 (3.40%)[2.40% 4.77%]2.2E-50.0037959707
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.003550.912 (91.20%)[89.23% 92.85%]1.22E-40.058 (5.80%)[4.47% 7.48%]5.4E-50.0038110747
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0031540.908 (90.80%)[88.79% 92.48%]9.0E-50.040 (4.00%)[2.91% 5.46%]3.4E-50.0032088608
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM0.0031280.937 (93.70%)[91.97% 95.09%]1.84E-40.089 (8.90%)[7.24% 10.88%]9.2E-50.0035515025

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 63 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.001510.589 (58.90%)[55.77% 61.96%]4.2E-50.019 (1.90%)[1.18% 3.01%]2.0E-50.0018098651
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0014840.585 (58.50%)[55.37% 61.56%]4.2E-50.019 (1.90%)[1.18% 3.01%]2.0E-50.0017508415
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0014820.580 (58.00%)[54.87% 61.07%]3.8E-50.017 (1.70%)[1.03% 2.77%]1.6E-50.0017636013
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0014760.582 (58.20%)[55.07% 61.27%]4.2E-50.019 (1.90%)[1.18% 3.01%]2.0E-50.0017453934
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0014580.578 (57.80%)[54.66% 60.87%]4.2E-50.019 (1.90%)[1.18% 3.01%]2.0E-50.0017193216
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0014040.555 (55.50%)[52.35% 58.60%]3.8E-50.017 (1.70%)[1.03% 2.77%]1.6E-50.0016807786
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0012820.520 (52.00%)[48.85% 55.13%]3.8E-50.017 (1.70%)[1.03% 2.77%]1.8E-50.0015122787
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0011840.486 (48.60%)[45.46% 51.75%]3.6E-50.017 (1.70%)[1.03% 2.77%]1.8E-50.0014250289
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM8.2E-40.370 (37.00%)[34.01% 40.09%]2.4E-50.012 (1.20%)[0.65% 2.15%]1.2E-50.0010319632
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM7.38E-40.338 (33.80%)[30.89% 36.84%]2.4E-50.012 (1.20%)[0.65% 2.15%]1.2E-59.2652056E-4

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 1000,
  "duration": 500.0,
  "startYear": 2012,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 123456789,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_triggered_descendants",
      "descendantsOnly": true
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Start 2012, 500 yr, Completeness\u003dSTRICT, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2021_03_02-Start2012_500yr_CompletenessSTRICT_Spontaneous_HistoricalCatalog",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.14,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "STRICT",
  "maxPointSourceMag": 10.0,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --random-seed 123456789 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec --completeness-model STRICT",
  "configTime": 1614734335373
}