Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, MaxPtSrcM=6, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog Results

Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, MaxPtSrcM=6, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog
Num Simulations1000
Start Time2012/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1325376000000
Duration500 Years
Includes Spontaneous?true
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Trigger Ruptures60366 Trigger Ruptures
First: M7.3 at 1852/01/05 04:40:39 UTC
Last: M3.2 at 2011/12/31 19:14:44 UTC
Largest: M7.9 at 1857/01/09 16:25:39 UTC
Config Generated Withu3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --random-seed 123456789 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec --max-point-src-mag 6

Table Of Contents

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous

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Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥57.8736.54410.0347.7087.7648.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.16.2295.1707.9166.1145.8506.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.24.9214.0746.2884.8264.7085.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.33.8803.2104.9163.8063.5264.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.43.0542.5263.8722.9942.8663.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.52.3981.9903.0122.3522.3422.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.61.8781.5642.3481.8461.8102.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.71.4641.2181.8161.4401.4161.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.81.1350.9481.3941.1201.1001.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.90.8640.7261.0460.8520.8421.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥60.6840.5740.8300.6800.7120.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.10.5260.4400.6300.5220.5180.6601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.20.4150.3440.4980.4140.4280.5291.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.30.3270.2680.3920.3260.3380.4201.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.40.2570.2100.3120.2560.2560.3321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.50.1990.1580.2460.1980.1980.2601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.60.1560.1220.1920.1560.1560.2051.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.70.1210.0900.1520.1200.1180.1601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.80.0950.0700.1220.0960.0960.1271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.90.0750.0520.0960.0740.0740.1001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥70.0590.0400.0780.0580.0560.0781.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.10.0450.0300.0600.0440.0420.0601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.20.0330.0220.0460.0340.0300.0451.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.30.0270.0160.0380.0260.0260.0351.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.40.0210.0100.0320.0200.0200.0271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.50.0158.00E-30.0240.0140.0140.0191.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.60.0116.00E-30.0180.0100.0100.0141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.78.03E-34.00E-30.0148.00E-38.00E-39.58E-31.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.85.49E-32.00E-30.0106.00E-36.00E-36.19E-30.989 (98.90%)[97.98% 99.42%]0.989 (98.90%)
M≥7.93.05E-30.0006.00E-34.00E-34.00E-33.51E-30.890 (89.00%)[86.86% 90.84%]0.890 (89.00%)
M≥81.71E-30.0004.00E-32.00E-32.00E-32.03E-30.654 (65.40%)[62.35% 68.33%]0.654 (65.40%)
M≥8.18.60E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-30.382 (38.20%)[35.19% 41.30%]0.382 (38.20%)
M≥8.23.42E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0004.48E-40.165 (16.50%)[14.28% 18.98%]0.165 (16.50%)
M≥8.37.80E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-40.039 (3.90%)[2.82% 5.34%]0.039 (3.90%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)

Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

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Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥50.3480.1440.9560.2780.2528.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.997 (99.70%)0.093
M≥5.10.2750.1120.7640.2200.1646.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.997 (99.70%)0.074
M≥5.20.2170.0880.6080.1740.1545.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.997 (99.70%)0.059
M≥5.30.1720.0680.4660.1380.1244.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.997 (99.70%)0.047
M≥5.40.1350.0500.3720.1100.1083.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.997 (99.70%)0.038
M≥5.50.1060.0380.2860.0860.0742.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.997 (99.70%)0.030
M≥5.60.0830.0280.2280.0680.0562.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.997 (99.70%)0.024
M≥5.70.0640.0200.1780.0540.0461.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.997 (99.70%)0.019
M≥5.80.0500.0140.1340.0420.0441.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.997 (99.70%)0.015
M≥5.90.0370.0100.1040.0320.0241.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.012
M≥60.0298.00E-30.0760.0260.0220.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.994 (99.40%)9.86E-3
M≥6.10.0224.00E-30.0600.0200.0200.6601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.988 (98.80%)7.67E-3
M≥6.20.0184.00E-30.0460.0160.0140.5290.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]0.978 (97.80%)6.36E-3
M≥6.30.0152.00E-30.0400.0120.0120.4200.992 (99.20%)[98.36% 99.63%]0.972 (97.20%)5.31E-3
M≥6.40.0112.00E-30.0320.0108.00E-30.3320.976 (97.60%)[96.39% 98.42%]0.950 (95.00%)4.23E-3
M≥6.58.71E-30.0000.0268.00E-36.00E-30.2600.951 (95.10%)[93.52% 96.32%]0.924 (92.40%)3.34E-3
M≥6.66.90E-30.0000.0206.00E-34.00E-30.2050.922 (92.20%)[90.32% 93.75%]0.889 (88.90%)2.70E-3
M≥6.75.36E-30.0000.0164.00E-34.00E-30.1600.869 (86.90%)[84.61% 88.90%]0.837 (83.70%)2.12E-3
M≥6.84.29E-30.0000.0144.00E-32.00E-30.1270.815 (81.50%)[78.92% 83.83%]0.779 (77.90%)1.73E-3
M≥6.93.48E-30.0000.0122.00E-32.00E-30.1000.758 (75.80%)[73.00% 78.40%]0.719 (71.90%)1.43E-3
M≥72.86E-30.0000.0102.00E-32.00E-30.0780.697 (69.70%)[66.73% 72.52%]0.665 (66.50%)1.20E-3
M≥7.12.20E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0600.601 (60.10%)[56.98% 63.14%]0.580 (58.00%)9.28E-4
M≥7.21.69E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0450.523 (52.30%)[49.15% 55.43%]0.511 (51.10%)7.66E-4
M≥7.31.40E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0350.459 (45.90%)[42.78% 49.05%]0.455 (45.50%)6.28E-4
M≥7.41.16E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0270.407 (40.70%)[37.65% 43.83%]0.404 (40.40%)5.24E-4
M≥7.58.46E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0190.315 (31.50%)[28.65% 34.50%]0.315 (31.50%)3.66E-4
M≥7.67.00E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0140.266 (26.60%)[23.91% 29.48%]0.266 (26.60%)3.04E-4
M≥7.75.30E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0009.58E-30.219 (21.90%)[19.40% 24.62%]0.219 (21.90%)2.20E-4
M≥7.83.90E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0006.19E-30.168 (16.80%)[14.56% 19.30%]0.168 (16.80%)1.62E-4
M≥7.92.38E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0003.51E-30.113 (11.30%)[9.44% 13.47%]0.113 (11.30%)9.80E-5
M≥81.38E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0002.03E-30.069 (6.90%)[5.44% 8.70%]0.069 (6.90%)6.00E-5
M≥8.17.60E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-30.038 (3.80%)[2.74% 5.23%]0.038 (3.80%)2.80E-5
M≥8.23.20E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.48E-40.016 (1.60%)[0.95% 2.64%]0.016 (1.60%)8.00E-6
M≥8.36.00E-60.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-43.00E-3 (0.30%)[0.08% 0.95%]3.00E-3 (0.30%)2.00E-6
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Long Term Rate Variability

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162 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.88541567.63580237.3888891.46983486.06.6913588.93209811.524692
5.16.239226.0370375.54938271.15602894.7654325.2962967.06172859.080247
5.24.92869144.7654324.56172850.90715823.75925924.1851855.57407437.154321
5.33.88587863.75925923.72222230.711479542.94444443.30246934.40123465.648148
5.43.05816252.96913583.09876540.55360262.30246932.59876543.45679024.4259257
5.52.4013172.33333332.47530870.428126571.80246912.04320982.72222233.4753087
5.61.88036621.83333341.66666660.329323321.41358031.60493832.12962962.6790123
5.71.4657121.43209871.45061730.250552121.10493831.25308641.66049392.0679011
5.81.13640121.11111121.10493830.188799190.85185190.96913581.29012351.5802469
5.90.865430060.8456790.839506150.140659820.64814810.73456790.98765431.191358
6.00.685255170.67283950.6543210.109048860.506172840.586419760.78395060.9259259
6.10.52741360.51851850.51851850.0851010160.382716060.444444450.604938270.70987654
6.20.41592180.413580240.38888890.068203620.29629630.351851850.48148150.5617284
6.30.328020570.32716050.320987640.0562387970.23456790.271604930.382716060.44444445
6.40.257211920.253086420.26543210.0469183180.172839510.209876540.302469130.3580247
6.50.199405360.197530870.191358030.0396387880.129629630.160493820.23456790.28395063
6.60.155890940.154320990.148148150.0331956740.098765430.123456790.185185180.22839506
6.70.120851850.117283950.111111110.0274326410.0740740750.092592590.148148150.17901234
6.80.095462960.092592590.092592590.0233009570.0555555560.0740740750.117283950.14197531
6.90.074841570.0740740750.067901230.0203705650.0370370370.0555555560.092592590.11728395
7.00.0587798360.0555555560.0617283960.0177660940.0246913580.0432098770.0740740750.09876543
7.10.0447366240.0432098770.0370370370.0153696170.0185185190.0308641980.0617283960.08024691
7.20.0335699580.0308641980.0308641980.0130287330.0123456790.0185185190.0432098770.061728396
7.30.0267901230.0246913580.0246913580.0113414620.00617283960.0185185190.0370370370.049382716
7.40.0205679010.0185185190.0185185190.0097349210.00617283960.0123456790.0308641980.043209877
7.50.0146831270.0123456790.0123456790.0079848920.00.00617283960.0246913580.030864198
7.60.0111563780.0123456790.0123456790.0065856210.00.00617283960.0185185190.024691358
7.70.0080534980.00617283960.00617283960.0053214680.00.00.0123456790.018518519
7.80.00551851840.00617283960.00617283960.0044886520.00.00.0123456790.012345679
7.90.0030637860.00.00.00356738080.00.00.00617283960.012345679
8.00.0017181070.00.00.0028701860.00.00.00617283960.0061728396
8.18.683128E-40.00.00.00216383840.00.00.00.0061728396
8.23.45679E-40.00.00.001419270.00.00.00.0061728396
8.38.0246915E-50.00.06.9922226E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

80 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.88491067.43757.12.0307725.61256.36259.22512.8375
5.16.23857075.95.36251.59632724.43755.03757.32510.1875
5.24.9282464.66254.251.25276343.48753.96255.7758.025
5.33.88553953.68753.38750.98122172.71253.1254.556.3125
5.43.05817912.91252.71250.764277162.11252.46253.58754.95
5.52.40138342.32.050.591556431.651.9252.8253.8
5.61.88049791.81.68750.454992231.28751.51252.21252.95
5.71.46584581.41251.31250.3462540.98751.1751.7252.275
5.81.13641251.11.06250.261056480.76250.91251.351.75
5.90.86549790.83750.83750.194009360.5750.68751.03751.3
6.00.68536250.66250.6250.150409730.450.550.8251.0125
6.10.52751040.51250.51250.118123230.3250.41250.63750.775
6.20.416045840.41250.40.095866280.250.3250.51250.625
6.30.32808960.3250.30.079664410.18750.250.40.5
6.40.257281240.250.26250.066858670.13750.18750.3250.4
6.50.199491660.20.18750.0569178130.10.150.250.325
6.60.155958340.150.150.0480426070.0750.11250.20.2625
6.70.120904170.11250.11250.040722580.050.0750.16250.2125
6.80.095479170.08750.08750.0349863020.03750.06250.1250.175
6.90.074833330.0750.0750.0304843430.0250.050.10.1375
7.00.0587729180.06250.050.0268384350.01250.03750.08750.1125
7.10.0447145850.03750.03750.0233208330.01250.0250.06250.1
7.20.0335354170.03750.0250.0197901970.00.01250.050.075
7.30.026750.0250.0250.017278660.00.01250.03750.0625
7.40.020531250.0250.01250.0148114560.00.00.03750.05
7.50.01466250.01250.01250.0124628890.00.00.0250.0375
7.60.01113750.01250.01250.0105755140.00.00.0250.0375
7.70.0080354170.01250.00.0088057630.00.00.01250.025
7.80.005493750.00.00.00733150770.00.00.01250.025
7.90.00304791660.00.00.0055908030.00.00.01250.0125
8.00.00169791670.00.00.00432499960.00.00.00.0125
8.18.5625E-40.00.00.00316576120.00.00.00.0125
8.23.4375E-40.00.00.00204418950.00.00.00.0125
8.38.125E-50.00.00.00100450160.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

28 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.88743937.1428576.4285713.29144074.8571435.7857149.60714215.5
5.16.2405695.6428575.252.5893093.78571444.5714297.60714312.178572
5.24.92993074.4642863.96428562.03124832.96428563.6071436.0357149.535714
5.33.88673333.53571443.21428561.59111892.28571442.82142854.7857147.535714
5.43.05918482.78571442.57142851.24197071.752.21428563.78571445.928571
5.52.40214092.21428561.92857150.96264171.35714281.71428572.96428564.607143
5.61.88100421.751.60714280.74107461.03571431.32142852.3571433.607143
5.71.46614711.35714281.21428570.56627960.785714271.03571431.85714282.7857144
5.81.13667641.07142851.00.426782580.57142860.785714271.46428572.107143
5.90.865659650.82142860.750.318842680.428571430.607142871.10714281.6071428
6.00.68549580.642857130.607142870.250569430.321428570.46428570.892857131.25
6.10.527640760.50.46428570.199462490.214285720.357142870.714285730.96428573
6.20.416102950.392857130.357142870.163767220.142857150.250.57142860.78571427
6.30.328100830.321428570.28571430.137372840.107142860.214285720.46428570.64285713
6.40.257262620.250.214285720.1162521240.0714285750.142857150.357142870.5
6.50.199460090.178571430.178571430.099034020.0357142870.107142860.28571430.42857143
6.60.155920160.142857150.107142860.084116620.0357142870.0714285750.250.35714287
6.70.1208655460.107142860.107142860.07189980.00.0357142870.178571430.2857143
6.80.0954369750.0714285750.0714285750.0620779250.00.0357142870.142857150.25
6.90.074787820.0714285750.0714285750.054210890.00.0357142870.142857150.21428572
7.00.0587436970.0357142870.0357142870.0474353060.00.00.107142860.17857143
7.10.0446827750.0357142870.0357142870.041210470.00.00.0714285750.14285715
7.20.03350.0357142870.00.0353623960.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.30.0267289910.0357142870.00.0311313250.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.40.0205168070.00.00.0268154180.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.50.0146722690.00.00.0226023220.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.60.0111533620.00.00.0193901430.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.70.0080483190.00.00.0162644180.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.80.00551890770.00.00.0135167280.00.00.00.035714287
7.90.00306092440.00.00.0101019950.00.00.00.035714287
8.00.0017100840.00.00.00763545050.00.00.00.035714287
8.18.634454E-40.00.00.00549925960.00.00.00.0
8.23.4663867E-40.00.00.00350139870.00.00.00.0
8.38.1932776E-50.00.00.0017086420.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Variability Duration Dependence

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Duration Dependence Plot

Download CSV Here

Duration (years)MeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
1.07.8731146.05.013.1597211.03.011.026.0
4.07.8731146.55.57.5127163.04.510.021.5
8.07.87605056.756.1255.67466833.755.09.87519.375
12.07.88151036.83333355.66666654.7691854.16666655.259.83333318.083334
16.07.87605056.93756.54.196784.43755.43759.7517.0625
20.07.8731147.06.13.793534.65.69.716.35
24.07.88491067.08333356.53.5351154.755.70833359.66666715.875
28.07.88743937.1428576.4285713.29144074.8571435.7857149.60714215.5
32.07.88491067.18756.218753.11778764.968755.843759.562514.90625
36.07.8875947.22222236.44444472.91012385.08333355.91666659.55555514.694445
40.07.88491067.256.6252.79022725.1255.9759.5514.225
44.07.8850317.27272756.9090912.69800525.20454556.02272759.45454514.136364
48.07.88491067.31257.31252.5997565.27083356.08333359.437513.9375
52.07.8875947.3269236.6730772.48783335.34615376.13461549.38461513.826923
56.07.88972337.3571437.0714292.36972625.3756.1785719.35714213.803572
60.07.88491067.3833337.03333332.33468255.43333346.21666679.313.316667
64.07.88972337.406256.968752.25580865.4843756.259.35937513.4375
68.07.88743937.3970597.55882362.19377375.56.2794129.27941113.338235
72.07.88348157.41666657.20833352.11905225.54166656.30555539.27777813.069445
76.07.88876967.43421036.6052632.06147655.6184216.32894759.30263112.973684
80.07.88491067.43757.12.0307725.61256.36259.22512.8375
84.07.88661677.4642867.41666651.96809265.6547626.4047629.19047612.75
88.07.88475477.48863657.45454551.93088365.67045456.4318189.13636412.681818
92.07.88835867.57.33695651.88697665.73913056.43478259.11956512.554348
96.07.88491067.57.19791651.87485835.76041656.44791659.13541712.46875
100.07.8731147.497.271.84049695.726.479.1112.3
200.07.88462267.6657.3251.3037686.2056.788.81511.225
300.07.92747357.727.411.0622866.41333346.98666678.7710.4366665
400.07.88462267.7157.42250.92850496.53257.068.6410.055
500.07.8731147.7087.7640.88387826.5447.1068.64810.034

Simulation Stationarity

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Stationarity Plot

Moment Rate Plot

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 313 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0429321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.003840.693 (69.30%)[66.32% 72.13%]0.0015320.047238618
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.028511.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0010580.331 (33.10%)[30.20% 36.13%]3.96E-40.03419009
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0190221.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0017760.394 (39.40%)[36.37% 42.51%]6.36E-40.016211301
Mendocino0.0181721.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0010340.372 (37.20%)[34.21% 40.29%]4.7E-40.028919645
Cerro Prieto0.013481.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.58E-40.265 (26.50%)[23.81% 29.37%]2.86E-40.015186971
Imperial0.0116361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.52E-40.229 (22.90%)[20.35% 25.66%]3.08E-40.014349225
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0108641.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.38E-40.207 (20.70%)[18.26% 23.37%]2.52E-40.013392845
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0094520.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]6.76E-40.213 (21.30%)[18.83% 24.00%]3.1E-40.009440966
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0084480.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]8.34E-40.281 (28.10%)[25.35% 31.02%]4.2E-40.008909097
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev0.0080480.987 (98.70%)[97.73% 99.28%]2.8E-40.091 (9.10%)[7.43% 11.10%]9.0E-50.008455746

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 306 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
Cerro Prieto0.011661.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]7.3E-40.243 (24.30%)[21.70% 27.11%]2.56E-40.013091409
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0110040.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]5.28E-40.193 (19.30%)[16.93% 21.91%]2.04E-40.012216282
Mendocino0.0091521.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.24E-40.255 (25.50%)[22.85% 28.34%]2.9E-40.012516479
Imperial0.0080720.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]4.12E-40.167 (16.70%)[14.47% 19.19%]2.02E-40.0096799815
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.008050.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]5.44E-40.189 (18.90%)[16.55% 21.50%]2.64E-40.008140643
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.007760.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]3.78E-40.158 (15.80%)[13.62% 18.24%]1.82E-40.009075132
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0070861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.82E-40.221 (22.10%)[19.59% 24.83%]2.48E-40.0067372364
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0070021.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.58E-40.184 (18.40%)[16.07% 20.97%]2.02E-40.00821497
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0067420.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]4.18E-40.161 (16.10%)[13.91% 18.56%]1.54E-40.0067538084
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0061481.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.38E-40.209 (20.90%)[18.45% 23.58%]2.52E-40.006128417

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 272 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0070480.994 (99.40%)[98.63% 99.76%]4.0E-40.166 (16.60%)[14.38% 19.09%]1.7E-40.007612852
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0058161.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.9E-40.199 (19.90%)[17.50% 22.54%]2.32E-40.0057427646
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0057420.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]4.98E-40.198 (19.80%)[17.40% 22.44%]2.32E-40.005722108
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0054980.993 (99.30%)[98.50% 99.69%]3.22E-40.141 (14.10%)[12.03% 16.45%]1.5E-40.0062776324
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0054241.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.98E-40.168 (16.80%)[14.56% 19.30%]1.86E-40.0052993274
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0050141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.12E-40.170 (17.00%)[14.75% 19.51%]1.92E-40.0051040766
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0046780.991 (99.10%)[98.23% 99.56%]3.32E-40.140 (14.00%)[11.94% 16.34%]1.38E-40.005556243
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0046620.988 (98.80%)[97.85% 99.35%]3.14E-40.135 (13.50%)[11.47% 15.81%]1.32E-40.004749499
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.004660.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]3.84E-40.158 (15.80%)[13.62% 18.24%]1.84E-40.0045623486
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0044540.972 (97.20%)[95.92% 98.10%]3.74E-40.152 (15.20%)[13.06% 17.61%]1.62E-40.004465195

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 207 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0049061.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.06E-40.170 (17.00%)[14.75% 19.51%]1.92E-40.0049894005
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0045020.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]3.72E-40.157 (15.70%)[13.53% 18.14%]1.84E-40.0044245115
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0044020.997 (99.70%)[99.05% 99.92%]3.42E-40.148 (14.80%)[12.69% 17.19%]1.58E-40.0045267143
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0042460.991 (99.10%)[98.23% 99.56%]3.5E-40.151 (15.10%)[12.97% 17.51%]1.72E-40.004201805
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.004060.980 (98.00%)[96.87% 98.74%]3.32E-40.145 (14.50%)[12.41% 16.87%]1.64E-40.0040264158
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.003770.971 (97.10%)[95.81% 98.01%]2.48E-40.111 (11.10%)[9.25% 13.25%]9.0E-50.0045710644
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0035660.950 (95.00%)[93.41% 96.23%]2.66E-40.118 (11.80%)[9.90% 14.00%]1.14E-40.0037959707
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0034920.882 (88.20%)[86.00% 90.10%]2.38E-40.102 (10.20%)[8.43% 12.28%]9.4E-50.0038110747
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0031960.896 (89.60%)[87.50% 91.39%]2.52E-40.109 (10.90%)[9.07% 13.04%]1.18E-40.0032088608
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM0.0029940.931 (93.10%)[91.30% 94.56%]1.86E-40.089 (8.90%)[7.24% 10.88%]7.0E-50.0035515025

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 72 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.001560.626 (62.60%)[59.51% 65.59%]1.34E-40.067 (6.70%)[5.27% 8.48%]5.8E-50.0018098651
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0015240.618 (61.80%)[58.70% 64.81%]1.3E-40.065 (6.50%)[5.09% 8.26%]5.8E-50.0017636013
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0015160.608 (60.80%)[57.69% 63.83%]1.28E-40.064 (6.40%)[5.00% 8.15%]5.6E-50.0017508415
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0015120.609 (60.90%)[57.79% 63.93%]1.28E-40.064 (6.40%)[5.00% 8.15%]5.6E-50.0017453934
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0014920.604 (60.40%)[57.28% 63.44%]1.28E-40.064 (6.40%)[5.00% 8.15%]5.6E-50.0017193216
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0014540.596 (59.60%)[56.48% 62.65%]1.24E-40.062 (6.20%)[4.82% 7.92%]5.8E-50.0016807786
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.001290.530 (53.00%)[49.85% 56.13%]1.1E-40.055 (5.50%)[4.21% 7.15%]4.4E-50.0015122787
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.001160.488 (48.80%)[45.66% 51.95%]9.0E-50.045 (4.50%)[3.34% 6.02%]3.2E-50.0014250289
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM7.8E-40.351 (35.10%)[32.16% 38.16%]5.6E-50.028 (2.80%)[1.90% 4.08%]1.6E-50.0010319632
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM6.98E-40.321 (32.10%)[29.23% 35.11%]5.4E-50.027 (2.70%)[1.82% 3.96%]1.4E-59.2652056E-4

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 1000,
  "duration": 500.0,
  "startYear": 2012,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 123456789,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_triggered_descendants",
      "descendantsOnly": true
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV\u003d1.5, MaxPtSrcM\u003d6, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2021_02_26-Start2012_500yr_kCOV1p5_MaxPtSrcM6_Spontaneous_HistoricalCatalog",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.14,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "etas_k_cov": 1.5,
  "maxPointSourceMag": 6.0,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --random-seed 123456789 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec --max-point-src-mag 6",
  "configTime": 1614369596030
}