Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, NoERT, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog Results

Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, NoERT, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog
Num Simulations1000
Start Time2012/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1325376000000
Duration500 Years
Includes Spontaneous?true
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Trigger Ruptures60366 Trigger Ruptures
First: M7.3 at 1852/01/05 04:40:39 UTC
Last: M3.2 at 2011/12/31 19:14:44 UTC
Largest: M7.9 at 1857/01/09 16:25:39 UTC
Config Generated Withu3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --random-seed 123456789 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec --prob-model NO_ERT

Table Of Contents

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous

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Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥57.7556.2989.9827.6467.7528.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.16.1424.9848.0066.0505.9006.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.24.8623.9426.2864.7884.8625.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.33.8423.1164.9443.7843.8564.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.43.0312.4543.8542.9943.3043.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.52.3881.9403.0242.3642.3882.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.61.8771.5362.3901.8581.7722.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.71.4711.2021.8361.4601.4661.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.81.1480.9461.4221.1401.1221.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.90.8800.7241.0820.8740.9101.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥60.7020.5860.8460.7000.7080.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.10.5450.4520.6540.5460.5480.6601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.20.4350.3600.5180.4340.4280.5291.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.30.3480.2860.4160.3460.3400.4201.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.40.2770.2240.3320.2760.2900.3321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.50.2170.1700.2620.2160.2080.2601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.60.1720.1340.2100.1720.1700.2051.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.70.1350.1040.1680.1340.1240.1601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.80.1070.0820.1360.1080.1100.1271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.90.0850.0620.1080.0840.0840.1001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥70.0670.0480.0880.0680.0640.0781.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.10.0520.0360.0680.0520.0500.0601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.20.0390.0260.0560.0380.0380.0451.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.30.0310.0200.0440.0320.0300.0351.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.40.0250.0140.0360.0240.0240.0271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.50.0170.0100.0260.0180.0160.0191.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.60.0136.00E-30.0200.0120.0140.0141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.79.11E-34.00E-30.0148.00E-38.00E-39.58E-31.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.86.45E-32.00E-30.0106.00E-36.00E-36.19E-30.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]0.996 (99.60%)
M≥7.93.50E-30.0008.00E-34.00E-34.00E-33.51E-30.917 (91.70%)[89.77% 93.30%]0.917 (91.70%)
M≥81.86E-30.0006.00E-32.00E-32.00E-32.03E-30.678 (67.80%)[64.79% 70.67%]0.678 (67.80%)
M≥8.18.94E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-30.394 (39.40%)[36.37% 42.51%]0.394 (39.40%)
M≥8.24.02E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0004.48E-40.197 (19.70%)[17.31% 22.33%]0.197 (19.70%)
M≥8.37.40E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-40.037 (3.70%)[2.65% 5.12%]0.037 (3.70%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)

Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

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Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥50.4510.1601.4680.3280.2528.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.094
M≥5.10.3570.1221.1740.2600.2126.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.075
M≥5.20.2830.0960.9120.2100.1985.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.060
M≥5.30.2240.0760.7080.1660.1344.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.048
M≥5.40.1760.0580.5480.1320.1003.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.039
M≥5.50.1390.0460.4280.1060.0802.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.031
M≥5.60.1090.0340.3320.0840.0722.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.025
M≥5.70.0860.0260.2500.0660.0621.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.020
M≥5.80.0670.0200.1920.0540.0381.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.016
M≥5.90.0510.0140.1460.0400.0381.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.013
M≥60.0400.0100.1060.0340.0280.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.999 (99.90%)0.011
M≥6.10.0318.00E-30.0800.0260.0180.6600.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.994 (99.40%)8.33E-3
M≥6.20.0254.00E-30.0660.0220.0160.5290.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]0.991 (99.10%)6.95E-3
M≥6.30.0214.00E-30.0540.0180.0140.4200.992 (99.20%)[98.36% 99.63%]0.983 (98.30%)5.70E-3
M≥6.40.0162.00E-30.0420.0140.0120.3320.988 (98.80%)[97.85% 99.35%]0.980 (98.00%)4.55E-3
M≥6.50.0132.00E-30.0340.0128.00E-30.2600.983 (98.30%)[97.23% 98.97%]0.971 (97.10%)3.58E-3
M≥6.60.0100.0000.0288.00E-36.00E-30.2050.961 (96.10%)[94.66% 97.18%]0.951 (95.10%)2.80E-3
M≥6.78.19E-30.0000.0228.00E-36.00E-30.1600.939 (93.90%)[92.19% 95.27%]0.923 (92.30%)2.26E-3
M≥6.86.70E-30.0000.0206.00E-32.00E-30.1270.906 (90.60%)[88.58% 92.30%]0.889 (88.90%)1.83E-3
M≥6.95.47E-30.0000.0164.00E-32.00E-30.1000.858 (85.80%)[83.45% 87.87%]0.838 (83.80%)1.48E-3
M≥74.61E-30.0000.0164.00E-32.00E-30.0780.816 (81.60%)[79.03% 83.93%]0.801 (80.10%)1.22E-3
M≥7.13.66E-30.0000.0122.00E-32.00E-30.0600.743 (74.30%)[71.45% 76.96%]0.731 (73.10%)9.34E-4
M≥7.22.89E-30.0000.0102.00E-30.0000.0450.673 (67.30%)[64.28% 70.19%]0.662 (66.20%)7.30E-4
M≥7.32.41E-30.0000.0102.00E-30.0000.0350.618 (61.80%)[58.70% 64.81%]0.611 (61.10%)6.18E-4
M≥7.41.96E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0270.533 (53.30%)[50.15% 56.42%]0.529 (52.90%)4.86E-4
M≥7.51.48E-30.0008.00E-30.0000.0000.0190.430 (43.00%)[39.91% 46.14%]0.430 (43.00%)3.48E-4
M≥7.61.19E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0140.380 (38.00%)[34.99% 41.10%]0.380 (38.00%)2.72E-4
M≥7.78.72E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0009.58E-30.304 (30.40%)[27.58% 33.37%]0.304 (30.40%)2.04E-4
M≥7.86.68E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0006.19E-30.251 (25.10%)[22.46% 27.93%]0.251 (25.10%)1.54E-4
M≥7.93.62E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0003.51E-30.153 (15.30%)[13.16% 17.72%]0.153 (15.30%)8.20E-5
M≥81.94E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0002.03E-30.091 (9.10%)[7.43% 11.10%]0.091 (9.10%)4.60E-5
M≥8.19.00E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-30.044 (4.40%)[3.25% 5.91%]0.044 (4.40%)2.00E-5
M≥8.25.40E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0004.48E-40.027 (2.70%)[1.82% 3.96%]0.027 (2.70%)1.40E-5
M≥8.36.00E-60.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-43.00E-3 (0.30%)[0.08% 0.95%]3.00E-3 (0.30%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Long Term Rate Variability

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162 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.76194437.46913586.79012351.51827415.72222236.45061739.011.808642
5.16.14702655.92592575.7592591.19540214.5370375.10493857.1172849.327161
5.24.86659864.7037044.7962960.94019753.55555564.04938275.62962967.376543
5.33.8451093.71604943.83950610.736635152.78395063.1913584.4629635.7777777
5.43.0336072.93827152.6543210.573356872.2283952.51851843.51851844.5246916
5.52.38954332.32098772.12962960.445688871.75308641.98148142.76543213.5432098
5.61.87855351.82716051.74074080.343082161.36419751.56790132.17901232.7469137
5.71.47240131.43827161.33333340.263304651.06172841.22839511.69753092.1358025
5.81.14877991.12345681.08641970.199395250.83333330.9629631.32098771.6419753
5.90.880425930.864197550.808641970.149536370.635802450.746913551.01851861.2407408
6.00.702890930.691358030.64197530.115747960.51234570.59259260.808641970.97530866
6.10.5458580.5370370.524691340.0913732350.38888890.456790120.635802450.75308645
6.20.4356070.432098780.432098780.073541460.302469130.364197520.506172840.59876543
6.30.34809260.345679010.31481480.0611007550.240740750.290123460.40740740.4814815
6.40.277119340.271604930.259259250.0510219040.185185180.228395060.32716050.3888889
6.50.216907410.216049390.222222220.0430899340.141975310.172839510.259259250.30864197
6.60.171991770.172839510.172839510.0360741470.104938270.135802460.209876540.25308642
6.70.134537040.129629630.129629630.030262220.080246910.104938270.166666670.19753087
6.80.107345680.104938270.098765430.0260436530.0617283960.080246910.135802460.16049382
6.90.0851954740.0864197540.080246910.02282810.0432098770.0617283960.111111110.13580246
7.00.06743210.067901230.067901230.0196404550.0308641980.0493827160.0864197540.11111111
7.10.0516131670.0493827160.0493827160.0167352330.0246913580.0370370370.067901230.086419754
7.20.0391316860.0370370370.0370370370.0139368440.0123456790.0246913580.0555555560.06790123
7.30.0315390940.0308641980.0308641980.0119707150.0123456790.0185185190.0432098770.055555556
7.40.0245411530.0246913580.0246913580.0104216980.00617283960.0123456790.0370370370.049382716
7.50.0174691360.0185185190.0185185190.0084707470.00617283960.00617283960.0246913580.037037037
7.60.0131152260.0123456790.0123456790.00701405430.00.00617283960.0185185190.030864198
7.70.0091049380.00617283960.00617283960.0056125620.00.00617283960.0123456790.018518519
7.80.0064526750.00617283960.00617283960.00461084630.00.00.0123456790.018518519
7.90.00351234570.00617283960.00.0037373590.00.00.00617283960.012345679
8.00.0018724280.00.00.00299868450.00.00.00617283960.0061728396
8.19.032922E-40.00.00.00221064570.00.00.00.0061728396
8.24.053498E-40.00.00.00152900310.00.00.00.0061728396
8.37.6131684E-50.00.06.812875E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

80 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.76133737.28756.76252.15137845.26.03759.313.1875
5.16.1466565.78755.21.6937554.14.7757.362510.3625
5.24.8664564.58754.58751.33128133.253.7755.86258.2
5.33.84472083.653.26251.04149212.552.9754.6256.45
5.43.03325412.8752.86250.81153512.01252.353.655.0375
5.52.38918332.2752.20.628088241.5751.86252.88753.9375
5.61.87815831.78751.750.484677431.23751.46252.2753.0625
5.71.47191041.41251.350.371414960.96251.151.7752.375
5.81.14838761.11.08750.281626220.73750.91.38751.8125
5.90.88015630.850.78750.211421530.550.68751.06251.375
6.00.702716650.68750.650.165702780.43750.550.851.0875
6.10.54570210.53750.5250.131474780.3250.4250.66250.85
6.20.435495820.4250.41250.107000990.250.33750.53750.675
6.30.3480.33750.350.088855040.20.26250.43750.55
6.40.27708750.2750.2750.074633940.150.20.350.4375
6.50.216910420.21250.21250.063496240.11250.150.2750.35
6.60.171977090.16250.150.053844420.0750.1250.2250.2875
6.70.134529170.1250.1250.0457697730.050.08750.1750.2375
6.80.1073020850.10.10.0395572820.03750.06250.150.2
6.90.0851729140.08750.0750.0347629820.0250.050.11250.1625
7.00.067454170.06250.06250.0299824250.01250.03750.10.1375
7.10.051643750.050.050.0256312230.01250.0250.0750.1125
7.20.039154170.03750.03750.0217400160.00.01250.06250.0875
7.30.031543750.0250.0250.0191177040.00.01250.050.075
7.40.0245479160.0250.0250.0165777470.00.01250.03750.0625
7.50.0174958330.01250.01250.0137135870.00.00.0250.05
7.60.0131291660.01250.01250.0114596210.00.00.0250.0375
7.70.0091020840.01250.00.0094560930.00.00.01250.025
7.80.0064520830.00.00.0078236280.00.00.01250.025
7.90.00351250.00.00.0059517020.00.00.01250.0125
8.00.00187083330.00.00.00451155750.00.00.00.0125
8.19.0208335E-40.00.00.00325060820.00.00.00.0125
8.24.0833335E-40.00.00.0022220330.00.00.00.0125
8.37.7083336E-50.00.09.785703E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

28 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.76221666.8571436.253.49691964.4285715.3928579.78571416.535715
5.16.1471685.4642864.752.7536493.46428564.257.78571412.964286
5.24.8669734.3214294.02.16647742.67857153.3571436.17857110.25
5.33.84514713.42857153.17857151.69614032.07142852.6428574.8928578.035714
5.43.03353792.71428562.53571441.32374951.60714282.07142853.8928576.321429
5.52.38932562.1428571.85714281.02913731.21428571.60714283.07142854.928571
5.61.87840331.71428571.46428570.79668450.964285731.252.42857153.8214285
5.71.472251.35714281.21428570.61378080.714285731.01.92857152.9642856
5.81.14855251.07142850.92857140.467792570.535714270.751.52.25
5.90.880376040.82142860.750.353526320.392857130.57142861.17857151.7142857
6.00.702865540.642857130.57142860.279008450.28571430.46428570.92857141.3571428
6.10.54583190.50.428571430.223079980.214285720.357142870.751.0714285
6.20.43555670.428571430.357142870.183435980.142857150.250.607142870.85714287
6.30.348039930.321428570.28571430.15420930.107142860.214285720.50.71428573
6.40.277071420.250.214285720.131121550.0714285750.142857150.392857130.5714286
6.50.216850850.214285720.178571430.111476540.0357142870.107142860.321428570.4642857
6.60.171903360.142857150.142857150.095387080.0357142870.0714285750.250.39285713
6.70.134487390.107142860.107142860.08163450.00.0714285750.214285720.32142857
6.80.107239490.107142860.0714285750.0706458540.00.0357142870.178571430.2857143
6.90.085132350.0714285750.0714285750.0618371740.00.0357142870.142857150.21428572
7.00.067397060.0714285750.0357142870.053714360.00.00.107142860.17857143
7.10.051600840.0357142870.0357142870.046273370.00.00.107142860.17857143
7.20.0391197470.0357142870.00.0395070460.00.00.0714285750.14285715
7.30.0315315130.0357142870.00.03516150.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.40.024523110.00.00.0304746480.00.00.0357142870.10714286
7.50.0174789910.00.00.02536660.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.60.0131113450.00.00.0215260720.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.70.0090945380.00.00.0176514050.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.80.00644117640.00.00.0146974230.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.90.00349579820.00.00.0108227130.00.00.00.035714287
8.00.00186134460.00.00.0079380090.00.00.00.035714287
8.19.0126053E-40.00.00.0056013930.00.00.00.035714287
8.24.054622E-40.00.00.0037837010.00.00.00.0
8.37.5630254E-50.00.00.00164175530.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Variability Duration Dependence

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Duration Dependence Plot

Download CSV Here

Duration (years)MeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
1.07.754545.04.013.6829531.03.010.028.0
4.07.754546.05.07.8592662.754.010.023.75
8.07.7586436.3755.1255.9205253.3754.62510.021.125
12.07.759886.55.33333354.99957473.754.83333359.91666719.75
16.07.7586436.6255.54.42390354.05.06259.87518.5
20.07.754546.756.054.0042874.25.159.8517.55
24.07.76133736.79166656.16666653.7124384.29166655.29166659.83333317.166666
28.07.76221666.8571436.253.49691964.4285715.3928579.78571416.535715
32.07.76133736.968755.81253.26962474.531255.468759.7187515.9375
36.07.7650736.97222236.44444473.1310464.6111115.52777779.69444515.666667
40.07.76133737.0256.1752.9651944.75.69.6515.2
44.07.76104747.0681826.8181822.83816054.755.6590919.61363614.909091
48.07.76133737.08333356.02.73600274.85416655.68759.62514.791667
52.07.7650737.13461546.44230752.64721754.88461545.759.57692314.538462
56.07.775467.1785716.6785712.57274274.9464295.7857149.53571414.482142
60.07.76133737.18333346.6333332.46199734.9833335.8666679.48333414.083333
64.07.775467.2031256.9218752.41569285.0468755.906259.5312513.90625
68.07.76221667.23529436.3823532.31395865.08823545.92647089.41176513.75
72.07.7745467.256.2361112.26340065.1111115.97222239.43055513.625
76.07.7701037.28947357.2631582.20206935.1447376.0131589.39473713.263158
80.07.76133737.28756.76252.15137845.26.03759.313.1875
84.07.77923357.3452386.1547622.11295755.2142866.05952369.36904713.166667
88.07.77110247.32954556.9090912.06845335.3068186.0681829.36363612.988636
92.07.76894147.35869557.4239132.0245655.26086956.10869559.29347812.75
96.07.76133737.3757.156251.96041455.31256.1259.30208312.5625
100.07.754547.376.511.91595275.366.149.2212.49
200.07.78552257.5357.431.36300675.8856.6158.9211.22
300.07.83103667.64666657.3666671.15191196.0766676.79666668.80333310.856667
400.07.78552257.6357.40750.998195656.1856.89758.632510.48
500.07.754547.6467.7520.905932256.2986.9128.529.982

Simulation Stationarity

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Stationarity Plot

Moment Rate Plot

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 313 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0475221.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0051920.719 (71.90%)[68.98% 74.65%]0.001540.047238618
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.031621.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0016680.446 (44.60%)[41.50% 47.75%]4.56E-40.03419009
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0236921.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0030420.414 (41.40%)[38.34% 44.53%]6.1E-40.016211301
Mendocino0.0189281.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.001560.423 (42.30%)[39.22% 45.44%]5.54E-40.028919645
Cerro Prieto0.0148721.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]9.98E-40.257 (25.70%)[23.04% 28.55%]2.78E-40.015186971
Imperial0.0124641.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0010280.326 (32.60%)[29.72% 35.62%]3.8E-40.014349225
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0115861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.62E-40.292 (29.20%)[26.42% 32.14%]2.78E-40.013392845
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0112541.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]9.18E-40.247 (24.70%)[22.08% 27.52%]2.7E-40.009440966
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0103041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0013660.318 (31.80%)[28.94% 34.80%]4.06E-40.008909097
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev0.0097880.991 (99.10%)[98.23% 99.56%]6.06E-40.127 (12.70%)[10.73% 14.96%]1.48E-40.008455746

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 306 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
Cerro Prieto0.0128641.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.7E-40.245 (24.50%)[21.89% 27.31%]2.42E-40.013091409
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.012631.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.56E-40.295 (29.50%)[26.71% 32.45%]2.3E-40.012216282
Mendocino0.0102061.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.001040.342 (34.20%)[31.28% 37.25%]3.22E-40.012516479
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0096261.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]7.8E-40.225 (22.50%)[19.97% 25.24%]2.22E-40.008140643
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0093241.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0011720.291 (29.10%)[26.32% 32.04%]2.12E-40.0067372364
Imperial0.0087481.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.42E-40.245 (24.50%)[21.89% 27.31%]2.12E-40.0096799815
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0085881.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.78E-40.254 (25.40%)[22.75% 28.24%]1.42E-40.0067538084
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0084421.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.3E-40.242 (24.20%)[21.60% 27.00%]1.98E-40.009075132
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0076061.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.56E-40.247 (24.70%)[22.08% 27.52%]2.14E-40.00821497
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0075080.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]9.74E-40.282 (28.20%)[25.45% 31.12%]2.72E-40.006658823

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 273 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0082180.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]6.56E-40.251 (25.10%)[22.46% 27.93%]1.78E-40.007612852
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0069081.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]7.72E-40.264 (26.40%)[23.71% 29.27%]1.72E-40.005722108
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0068281.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]7.8E-40.268 (26.80%)[24.10% 29.68%]1.78E-40.0057427646
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0067541.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.2E-40.254 (25.40%)[22.75% 28.24%]1.46E-40.0052993274
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0060760.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]4.92E-40.197 (19.70%)[17.31% 22.33%]1.56E-40.0062776324
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0060120.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]6.64E-40.227 (22.70%)[20.16% 25.45%]1.1E-40.004749499
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0058741.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.8E-40.243 (24.30%)[21.70% 27.11%]1.4E-40.0051040766
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0055281.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.9E-40.213 (21.30%)[18.83% 24.00%]1.6E-40.005556243
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0055240.990 (99.00%)[98.10% 99.49%]5.76E-40.213 (21.30%)[18.83% 24.00%]1.26E-40.004465195
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0054461.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.24E-40.233 (23.30%)[20.74% 26.07%]1.32E-40.0045623486

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 207 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0057221.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.62E-40.239 (23.90%)[21.31% 26.69%]1.34E-40.0049894005
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0052841.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.08E-40.230 (23.00%)[20.45% 25.76%]1.24E-40.0044245115
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0052320.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]6.2E-40.226 (22.60%)[20.07% 25.35%]1.26E-40.0045267143
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0049661.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.64E-40.219 (21.90%)[19.40% 24.62%]1.16E-40.004201805
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0047280.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]5.3E-40.208 (20.80%)[18.35% 23.48%]1.06E-40.0040264158
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.004450.972 (97.20%)[95.92% 98.10%]4.8E-40.192 (19.20%)[16.83% 21.81%]9.4E-50.0037959707
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.004360.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]4.42E-40.176 (17.60%)[15.32% 20.14%]1.26E-40.0045710644
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0040360.951 (95.10%)[93.52% 96.32%]3.8E-40.159 (15.90%)[13.72% 18.35%]8.6E-50.0038110747
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0037120.953 (95.30%)[93.75% 96.49%]3.94E-40.159 (15.90%)[13.72% 18.35%]8.4E-50.0032088608
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM0.0034660.972 (97.20%)[95.92% 98.10%]3.42E-40.141 (14.10%)[12.03% 16.45%]9.0E-50.0035515025

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 61 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.001710.647 (64.70%)[61.64% 67.65%]1.8E-40.084 (8.40%)[6.79% 10.34%]4.2E-50.0018098651
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0016760.635 (63.50%)[60.42% 66.48%]1.76E-40.082 (8.20%)[6.61% 10.12%]4.2E-50.0017508415
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0016580.629 (62.90%)[59.81% 65.89%]1.76E-40.082 (8.20%)[6.61% 10.12%]4.2E-50.0017453934
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0016580.632 (63.20%)[60.12% 66.18%]1.74E-40.081 (8.10%)[6.52% 10.01%]4.2E-50.0017193216
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0016540.631 (63.10%)[60.01% 66.08%]1.8E-40.084 (8.40%)[6.79% 10.34%]4.2E-50.0017636013
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0015760.611 (61.10%)[57.99% 64.12%]1.64E-40.079 (7.90%)[6.34% 9.79%]3.8E-50.0016807786
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0014280.561 (56.10%)[52.96% 59.20%]1.46E-40.067 (6.70%)[5.27% 8.48%]3.8E-50.0015122787
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0013060.531 (53.10%)[49.95% 56.22%]1.34E-40.062 (6.20%)[4.82% 7.92%]3.2E-50.0014250289
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM9.1E-40.405 (40.50%)[37.45% 43.62%]9.4E-50.045 (4.50%)[3.34% 6.02%]2.0E-50.0010319632
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM8.06E-40.369 (36.90%)[33.92% 39.99%]8.0E-50.038 (3.80%)[2.74% 5.23%]1.8E-59.2652056E-4

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 1000,
  "duration": 500.0,
  "startYear": 2012,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 123456789,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_triggered_descendants",
      "descendantsOnly": true
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV\u003d1.5, NoERT, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2020_12_07-Start2012_500yr_kCOV1p5_NoERT_Spontaneous_HistoricalCatalog",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "NO_ERT",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.0,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "etas_k_cov": 1.5,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --random-seed 123456789 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec --prob-model NO_ERT",
  "configTime": 1607365171266
}