Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, Scale Factor 1.5, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog Results

Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, Scale Factor 1.5, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog
Num Simulations1000
Start Time2012/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1325376000000
Duration500 Years
Includes Spontaneous?true
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Trigger Ruptures60366 Trigger Ruptures
First: M7.3 at 1852/01/05 04:40:39 UTC
Last: M3.2 at 2011/12/31 19:14:44 UTC
Largest: M7.9 at 1857/01/09 16:25:39 UTC
Config Generated Withu3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --random-seed 123456789 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec --scale-factor 1.5

Table Of Contents

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous

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Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥59.7018.31611.7889.59210.0508.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.17.6706.5649.2767.5987.5206.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.26.0565.2027.3105.9865.8345.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.34.7744.0905.7704.7224.5464.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.43.7543.2224.5363.7183.5783.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.52.9432.5243.5642.9102.8022.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.62.2991.9822.7562.2802.2302.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.71.7891.5422.1341.7741.7241.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.81.3821.1901.6341.3701.3141.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.91.0470.8961.2341.0401.0501.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥60.8240.7100.9660.8200.8260.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.10.6340.5440.7400.6320.6280.6601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.20.4970.4220.5820.4960.4940.5291.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.30.3890.3260.4540.3880.3960.4201.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.40.3040.2500.3580.3020.3100.3321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.50.2340.1900.2760.2320.2360.2601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.60.1820.1440.2180.1800.1780.2051.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.70.1400.1080.1700.1400.1400.1601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.80.1100.0820.1360.1100.1020.1271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.90.0860.0620.1060.0860.0900.1001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥70.0660.0480.0840.0660.0680.0781.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.10.0500.0340.0660.0500.0480.0601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.20.0380.0240.0520.0380.0400.0451.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.30.0290.0180.0400.0300.0300.0351.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.40.0220.0120.0320.0220.0240.0271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.50.0168.00E-30.0240.0160.0160.0191.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.60.0126.00E-30.0180.0120.0120.0141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.78.32E-34.00E-30.0148.00E-38.00E-39.58E-31.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.85.72E-32.00E-30.0106.00E-36.00E-36.19E-30.994 (99.40%)[98.63% 99.76%]0.994 (99.40%)
M≥7.93.14E-30.0006.00E-34.00E-34.00E-33.51E-30.885 (88.50%)[86.32% 90.38%]0.885 (88.50%)
M≥81.67E-30.0004.00E-32.00E-32.00E-32.03E-30.645 (64.50%)[61.43% 67.45%]0.645 (64.50%)
M≥8.17.42E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-30.338 (33.80%)[30.89% 36.84%]0.338 (33.80%)
M≥8.22.82E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0004.48E-40.139 (13.90%)[11.85% 16.24%]0.139 (13.90%)
M≥8.36.40E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-40.032 (3.20%)[2.23% 4.54%]0.032 (3.20%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)

Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

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Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥50.3340.1421.0480.2560.1788.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.996 (99.60%)0.093
M≥5.10.2640.1120.8160.2020.1466.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.996 (99.60%)0.074
M≥5.20.2080.0880.6440.1620.1225.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.996 (99.60%)0.059
M≥5.30.1640.0640.5020.1280.0944.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.996 (99.60%)0.047
M≥5.40.1290.0480.3880.1000.0783.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.996 (99.60%)0.037
M≥5.50.1010.0360.3020.0800.0642.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.996 (99.60%)0.030
M≥5.60.0780.0280.2300.0620.0482.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.996 (99.60%)0.024
M≥5.70.0600.0200.1760.0480.0361.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.996 (99.60%)0.019
M≥5.80.0470.0160.1340.0380.0341.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.996 (99.60%)0.015
M≥5.90.0340.0100.1000.0280.0261.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.991 (99.10%)0.012
M≥60.0276.00E-30.0760.0220.0180.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.990 (99.00%)9.34E-3
M≥6.10.0204.00E-30.0540.0180.0140.6600.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]0.979 (97.90%)7.22E-3
M≥6.20.0162.00E-30.0440.0140.0100.5290.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]0.972 (97.20%)6.00E-3
M≥6.30.0132.00E-30.0360.0128.00E-30.4200.983 (98.30%)[97.23% 98.97%]0.956 (95.60%)4.92E-3
M≥6.40.0100.0000.0288.00E-38.00E-30.3320.968 (96.80%)[95.46% 97.77%]0.938 (93.80%)3.90E-3
M≥6.57.75E-30.0000.0226.00E-34.00E-30.2600.930 (93.00%)[91.19% 94.47%]0.894 (89.40%)3.04E-3
M≥6.66.15E-30.0000.0204.00E-34.00E-30.2050.887 (88.70%)[86.53% 90.56%]0.844 (84.40%)2.45E-3
M≥6.74.70E-30.0000.0164.00E-32.00E-30.1600.826 (82.60%)[80.07% 84.87%]0.778 (77.80%)1.89E-3
M≥6.83.75E-30.0000.0142.00E-32.00E-30.1270.760 (76.00%)[73.20% 78.59%]0.714 (71.40%)1.55E-3
M≥6.93.04E-30.0000.0102.00E-30.0000.1000.693 (69.30%)[66.32% 72.13%]0.658 (65.80%)1.28E-3
M≥72.49E-30.0000.0102.00E-30.0000.0780.626 (62.60%)[59.51% 65.59%]0.599 (59.90%)1.05E-3
M≥7.11.85E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0600.526 (52.60%)[49.45% 55.73%]0.505 (50.50%)7.78E-4
M≥7.21.46E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0450.451 (45.10%)[41.99% 48.25%]0.440 (44.00%)6.26E-4
M≥7.31.21E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0350.398 (39.80%)[36.76% 42.92%]0.390 (39.00%)5.38E-4
M≥7.49.30E-40.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0270.325 (32.50%)[29.62% 35.52%]0.321 (32.10%)4.22E-4
M≥7.56.88E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0190.255 (25.50%)[22.85% 28.34%]0.254 (25.40%)3.16E-4
M≥7.65.50E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0140.211 (21.10%)[18.64% 23.79%]0.211 (21.10%)2.42E-4
M≥7.74.14E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0009.58E-30.173 (17.30%)[15.03% 19.82%]0.173 (17.30%)1.90E-4
M≥7.83.02E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0006.19E-30.131 (13.10%)[11.10% 15.39%]0.131 (13.10%)1.42E-4
M≥7.91.54E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0003.51E-30.072 (7.20%)[5.71% 9.03%]0.072 (7.20%)7.00E-5
M≥88.80E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0002.03E-30.042 (4.20%)[3.08% 5.69%]0.042 (4.20%)4.00E-5
M≥8.13.80E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-30.018 (1.80%)[1.10% 2.89%]0.018 (1.80%)1.80E-5
M≥8.28.00E-60.0000.0000.0000.0004.48E-44.00E-3 (0.40%)[0.13% 1.10%]4.00E-3 (0.40%)4.00E-6
M≥8.32.00E-60.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-41.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.01% 0.65%]1.00E-3 (0.10%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Long Term Rate Variability

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162 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.09.7043199.4320988.6172841.55282997.66666658.4567910.8703713.203704
5.17.67224077.46913587.72222231.21938066.0802476.6851858.604938510.444445
5.26.05779035.90123465.7962960.956322434.7839515.27777776.7962968.228395
5.34.7752414.6543214.2962960.75062143.76543214.16666655.3456796.4382715
5.43.75529843.66049393.55555560.586309252.95061733.2716054.2037045.0617285
5.52.9436092.87654332.8518520.453227042.29629642.56790113.29629643.9691358
5.62.2998212.25308632.13580250.347135541.80246912.0061732.56790113.080247
5.71.7892881.75308641.74691360.264607131.38888881.56172842.02.3888888
5.81.38276141.35802471.38888880.200798141.06790131.20987651.54320991.8395061
5.91.04741161.03086421.03086420.150989730.802469130.913580241.17283951.3888888
6.00.824504140.81481480.78395060.117134810.62962960.71604940.92592591.0802469
6.10.634086430.62962960.64814810.091933470.475308660.543209850.71604940.8333333
6.20.497458850.493827160.506172840.07357640.370370360.425925940.567901250.654321
6.30.389179020.38888890.401234570.059854520.27777780.32716050.444444450.5123457
6.40.30396710.302469130.31481480.04982280.216049390.253086420.351851850.4074074
6.50.233921810.23456790.240740750.0418433440.154320990.191358030.27777780.32098764
6.60.181695480.179012340.179012340.03515940.117283950.148148150.216049390.25308642
6.70.139611110.135802460.129629630.0296088180.0864197540.111111110.166666670.19753087
6.80.109578190.111111110.104938270.0254273020.0617283960.0864197540.135802460.16049382
6.90.08555350.0864197540.080246910.0221110380.0432098770.0617283960.104938270.12962963
7.00.0661851840.067901230.067901230.0187021590.0308641980.0493827160.0864197540.10493827
7.10.049930040.0493827160.0432098770.0161174610.0185185190.0308641980.067901230.08024691
7.20.037493830.0370370370.0308641980.01370850950.0123456790.0246913580.0493827160.06790123
7.30.02931070.0308641980.0246913580.0117039990.0123456790.0185185190.0432098770.055555556
7.40.0224341560.0246913580.0185185190.0099111170.00617283960.0123456790.0308641980.043209877
7.50.0158148150.0123456790.0123456790.0081522530.00.00617283960.0246913580.030864198
7.60.0119300410.0123456790.0123456790.0067247120.00.00617283960.0185185190.024691358
7.70.0082942390.00617283960.00617283960.00556775040.00.00.0123456790.018518519
7.80.00570370350.00617283960.00617283960.00457883250.00.00.0123456790.012345679
7.90.00314197530.00.00.0036305480.00.00.00617283960.012345679
8.00.00168518520.00.00.00284534410.00.00.00617283960.0061728396
8.17.510288E-40.00.00.0020429260.00.00.00.0061728396
8.22.8806584E-40.00.00.00130199930.00.00.00.0061728396
8.36.584362E-50.00.06.3411886E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

80 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.09.7037259.258.78752.1690837.23758.062511.212514.725
5.17.67187.33756.96251.70460265.76.36258.862511.525
5.26.05758765.85.451.33915414.4755.01257.09.0625
5.34.7750674.5754.31.04916273.51253.96255.51257.15
5.43.75505423.61253.43750.81917512.73753.11254.33755.5875
5.52.94332722.83752.68750.6340462.1252.43753.41254.3625
5.62.29969382.21252.13750.486716031.651.92.68753.4
5.71.78911461.7251.6750.37276581.2751.4752.08752.625
5.81.38266461.351.3250.282023520.9751.13751.61252.0125
5.91.04740831.0251.03750.21174290.7250.86251.2251.5125
6.00.824554150.81250.76250.16466210.56250.6750.9751.1875
6.10.63415620.6250.650.129999370.41250.51250.750.9125
6.20.497454170.48750.48750.104696880.31250.40.60.725
6.30.389189570.38750.36250.085487480.23750.31250.4750.575
6.40.303985420.30.28750.071894580.1750.23750.3750.45
6.50.233964580.2250.21250.0605244080.1250.1750.28750.3625
6.60.181714580.1750.16250.0514497420.08750.13750.2250.2875
6.70.139633330.13750.1250.0437259560.06250.10.18750.2375
6.80.1095750.11250.10.0375671160.03750.0750.150.1875
6.90.085543750.08750.0750.0329369870.0250.050.1250.15
7.00.0661354140.06250.06250.0282195150.01250.03750.10.125
7.10.0498604180.050.03750.024482270.01250.0250.0750.1
7.20.0374416670.03750.03750.0205749830.00.01250.06250.0875
7.30.0292583330.0250.0250.017708340.00.01250.050.0625
7.40.0223895830.0250.01250.0150894310.00.01250.03750.05
7.50.0157958320.01250.01250.012672640.00.00.0250.0375
7.60.011906250.01250.01250.0107352880.00.00.0250.0375
7.70.0082750.01250.00.0089508730.00.00.01250.025
7.80.005693750.00.00.007331650.00.00.01250.025
7.90.0031250.00.00.00568486660.00.00.01250.0125
8.00.001681250.00.00.0043134310.00.00.00.0125
8.17.4166665E-40.00.00.00297067850.00.00.00.0125
8.22.8333333E-40.00.00.00186048090.00.00.00.0
8.36.0416667E-50.00.08.669245E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

28 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.09.7054968.9642868.1428583.50259696.3928577.46428611.53571417.607143
5.17.6736187.0714296.5714292.7596495.05.8571439.14285813.928572
5.26.05885935.6071435.2857142.16912963.8928574.6071437.2511.0
5.34.77609444.4285714.0714291.70149993.03571443.6071435.7142868.642858
5.43.75586343.53.17857151.32952242.32142852.82142854.5357146.785714
5.52.94404842.752.57142851.03324581.78571432.21428563.57142855.25
5.62.30036542.1428571.96428570.79561211.35714281.71428572.82142854.071429
5.71.78956941.67857151.57142850.611658161.03571431.32142852.21428563.142857
5.81.38293911.32142851.250.465672940.785714271.01.71428572.392857
5.91.04768491.00.964285730.3491720.57142860.751.32142851.8214285
6.00.82478780.785714270.750.274355440.428571430.57142861.03571431.4285715
6.10.634386540.607142870.607142870.218313980.28571430.428571430.82142861.1071428
6.20.497558830.46428570.46428570.17753280.214285720.321428570.642857130.89285713
6.30.38925420.357142870.321428570.14648850.142857150.250.535714270.71428573
6.40.304050420.28571430.250.124186710.107142860.178571430.428571430.5714286
6.50.23401260.214285720.214285720.105150030.0714285750.142857150.321428570.4642857
6.60.181794120.178571430.142857150.089996160.0357142870.107142860.250.39285713
6.70.13973950.142857150.107142860.076925290.00.0714285750.214285720.32142857
6.80.1096617650.107142860.107142860.0662052560.00.0357142870.178571430.25
6.90.085588230.0714285750.0714285750.0579795540.00.0357142870.142857150.21428572
7.00.066172270.0714285750.0357142870.0501227230.00.00.107142860.17857143
7.10.049880250.0357142870.0357142870.0433622260.00.00.107142860.14285715
7.20.0374369730.0357142870.0357142870.037053110.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.30.0292542020.0357142870.00.032267250.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.40.0223844540.00.00.0279995580.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.50.0157836140.00.00.0233177970.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.60.0118823530.00.00.019990650.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.70.0082563020.00.00.0166244190.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.80.0056848740.00.00.0136058510.00.00.00.035714287
7.90.00311134450.00.00.0102122540.00.00.00.035714287
8.00.00168067230.00.00.0075927290.00.00.00.035714287
8.17.394958E-40.00.00.00510036950.00.00.00.0
8.22.815126E-40.00.00.00315828620.00.00.00.0
8.36.092437E-50.00.00.00147382450.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Variability Duration Dependence

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Duration Dependence Plot

Download CSV Here

Duration (years)MeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
1.09.7013488.06.013.7752832.04.013.029.0
4.09.7013488.257.57.81282474.256.012.2524.25
8.09.7040528.57.6255.8651585.1256.512.021.75
12.09.705648.6666678.0833335.0300795.58333356.833333511.83333320.666666
16.09.7040528.758.43754.36519865.8757.062511.7519.5
20.09.7013488.858.14.00968466.17.211.718.8
24.09.7037258.9166678.5833333.72077426.257.333333511.62518.041666
28.09.7054968.9642868.1428583.50259696.3928577.46428611.53571417.607143
32.09.7037259.08.06253.31404286.57.5312511.517.28125
36.09.7035989.0277788.5555553.10328846.6111117.583333511.47222216.916666
40.09.7037259.0758.052.9968556.77.6511.42516.425
44.09.7033399.1136368.2727272.86261636.757.727272511.34090916.204546
48.09.7037259.1258.2916672.74748786.83333357.770833511.37515.854167
52.09.7035989.1538468.7307692.595486.88461547.82692311.32692315.711538
56.09.71239959.1964289.1428582.5436346.9821437.87511.33928615.696428
60.09.7037259.28.3666672.49519787.0166677.911.31666715.266666
64.09.71239959.218758.968752.4240387.0781257.92187511.2515.265625
68.09.7054969.2205899.1323532.3684147.1176477.97058811.22058914.970589
72.09.7178439.258.9305552.28974157.15277778.02777811.19444515.097222
76.09.7117089.2631589.0394742.20688827.19736868.06578911.21052614.75
80.09.7037259.258.78752.1690837.23758.062511.212514.725
84.09.7178939.3095248.8095242.11364827.2857148.10714211.16666714.738095
88.09.7193079.3068188.9886362.09536747.2840918.12511.12514.511364
92.09.708169.2934789.1956522.04469047.33695658.16304311.09782614.369565
96.09.7037259.3020839.0208332.01636987.343758.17708311.0937514.395833
100.09.7013489.338.261.95265087.48.2211.0614.09
200.09.7305889.4859.221.43867367.858.55510.8612.975
300.09.779499.619.281.1892258.2133338.7710.712.35
400.09.7305889.60259.1851.03716278.2658.787510.53512.1
500.09.7013489.59210.050.93018628.3168.87210.4611.788

Simulation Stationarity

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Stationarity Plot

Moment Rate Plot

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 313 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0474441.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0032940.653 (65.30%)[62.25% 68.24%]0.0014180.047238618
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0322681.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]9.24E-40.314 (31.40%)[28.55% 34.39%]3.94E-40.03419009
Mendocino0.0213281.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.72E-40.300 (30.00%)[27.19% 32.96%]4.44E-40.028919645
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0205021.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0015840.352 (35.20%)[32.25% 38.26%]6.0E-40.016211301
Cerro Prieto0.0151421.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.46E-40.195 (19.50%)[17.12% 22.12%]2.38E-40.015186971
Imperial0.0131481.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.04E-40.230 (23.00%)[20.45% 25.76%]3.0E-40.014349225
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0123221.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.9E-40.191 (19.10%)[16.74% 21.71%]2.26E-40.013392845
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0104780.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]4.68E-40.173 (17.30%)[15.03% 19.82%]2.32E-40.009440966
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0092741.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.72E-40.216 (21.60%)[19.11% 24.31%]3.32E-40.008909097
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev0.0091281.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]2.62E-40.081 (8.10%)[6.52% 10.01%]8.8E-50.008455746

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 305 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
Cerro Prieto0.0129161.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.56E-40.181 (18.10%)[15.79% 20.66%]2.18E-40.013091409
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0119981.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.22E-40.179 (17.90%)[15.60% 20.45%]1.9E-40.012216282
Mendocino0.01051.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.28E-40.205 (20.50%)[18.07% 23.16%]2.72E-40.012516479
Imperial0.009011.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.74E-40.153 (15.30%)[13.16% 17.72%]1.72E-40.0096799815
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0088980.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]3.82E-40.144 (14.40%)[12.31% 16.77%]1.94E-40.008140643
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0085721.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.5E-40.145 (14.50%)[12.41% 16.87%]1.62E-40.009075132
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0076141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.32E-40.172 (17.20%)[14.94% 19.72%]2.14E-40.00821497
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0074861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.2E-40.186 (18.60%)[16.26% 21.18%]2.2E-40.0067372364
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0072760.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]3.88E-40.151 (15.10%)[12.97% 17.51%]1.58E-40.0067538084
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0066441.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.2E-40.158 (15.80%)[13.62% 18.24%]2.2E-40.006658823

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 271 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0073120.992 (99.20%)[98.36% 99.63%]3.24E-40.140 (14.00%)[11.94% 16.34%]1.6E-40.007612852
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0061221.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.02E-40.163 (16.30%)[14.09% 18.77%]1.84E-40.0057427646
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0060881.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.08E-40.167 (16.70%)[14.47% 19.19%]1.94E-40.005722108
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0058920.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]2.82E-40.116 (11.60%)[9.71% 13.79%]1.38E-40.0062776324
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0055580.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]3.56E-40.141 (14.10%)[12.03% 16.45%]1.6E-40.0052993274
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0052261.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.18E-40.128 (12.80%)[10.82% 15.07%]1.5E-40.0051040766
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0049720.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]3.08E-40.128 (12.80%)[10.82% 15.07%]1.32E-40.005556243
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0048420.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]2.92E-40.120 (12.00%)[10.08% 14.21%]1.36E-40.0045623486
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0048180.982 (98.20%)[97.11% 98.90%]2.92E-40.124 (12.40%)[10.45% 14.64%]1.22E-40.004749499
Cerro Prieto0.0047440.974 (97.40%)[96.16% 98.26%]1.96E-40.086 (8.60%)[6.97% 10.55%]7.8E-50.0048668785

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 207 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0051041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.02E-40.125 (12.50%)[10.55% 14.75%]1.4E-40.0049894005
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0047120.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]2.8E-40.117 (11.70%)[9.81% 13.89%]1.3E-40.0044245115
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0045020.993 (99.30%)[98.50% 99.69%]2.64E-40.115 (11.50%)[9.62% 13.68%]1.22E-40.0045267143
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0044440.997 (99.70%)[99.05% 99.92%]2.58E-40.110 (11.00%)[9.16% 13.14%]1.18E-40.004201805
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0042140.990 (99.00%)[98.10% 99.49%]2.4E-40.105 (10.50%)[8.70% 12.61%]1.14E-40.0040264158
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0038720.991 (99.10%)[98.23% 99.56%]2.06E-40.092 (9.20%)[7.52% 11.21%]9.2E-50.0045710644
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0037240.954 (95.40%)[93.86% 96.58%]2.26E-40.103 (10.30%)[8.52% 12.39%]9.4E-50.0037959707
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0034420.887 (88.70%)[86.53% 90.56%]1.92E-40.089 (8.90%)[7.24% 10.88%]8.2E-50.0038110747
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0031980.923 (92.30%)[90.43% 93.84%]1.82E-40.082 (8.20%)[6.61% 10.12%]8.4E-50.0032088608
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM0.003180.949 (94.90%)[93.30% 96.14%]1.88E-40.083 (8.30%)[6.70% 10.23%]8.8E-50.0035515025

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 60 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0015580.620 (62.00%)[58.90% 65.01%]8.2E-50.040 (4.00%)[2.91% 5.46%]3.6E-50.0018098651
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.001510.606 (60.60%)[57.49% 63.63%]8.2E-50.040 (4.00%)[2.91% 5.46%]3.6E-50.0017636013
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0015040.606 (60.60%)[57.49% 63.63%]7.6E-50.037 (3.70%)[2.65% 5.12%]3.2E-50.0017453934
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0015040.605 (60.50%)[57.38% 63.53%]7.6E-50.037 (3.70%)[2.65% 5.12%]3.2E-50.0017508415
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0014680.590 (59.00%)[55.87% 62.06%]7.2E-50.035 (3.50%)[2.49% 4.89%]3.0E-50.0017193216
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0014620.593 (59.30%)[56.17% 62.35%]8.0E-50.039 (3.90%)[2.82% 5.34%]3.4E-50.0016807786
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0012460.516 (51.60%)[48.45% 54.74%]6.2E-50.030 (3.00%)[2.07% 4.31%]2.4E-50.0015122787
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0010820.459 (45.90%)[42.78% 49.05%]5.2E-50.026 (2.60%)[1.74% 3.84%]2.6E-50.0014250289
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM7.42E-40.332 (33.20%)[30.30% 36.23%]3.6E-50.018 (1.80%)[1.10% 2.89%]1.8E-50.0010319632
San Andreas (Coachella) rev6.76E-40.309 (30.90%)[28.07% 33.88%]4.2E-50.021 (2.10%)[1.34% 3.25%]2.6E-56.20271E-4

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 1000,
  "duration": 500.0,
  "startYear": 2012,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 123456789,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_triggered_descendants",
      "descendantsOnly": true
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV\u003d1.5, Scale Factor 1.5, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2020_12_04-Start2012_500yr_kCOV1p5_ScaleFactor1p5_Spontaneous_HistoricalCatalog",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.5,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "etas_k_cov": 1.5,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --random-seed 123456789 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec --scale-factor 1.5",
  "configTime": 1607103779355
}