Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, Scale Factor 1.4, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog Results

Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, Scale Factor 1.4, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog
Num Simulations1000
Start Time2012/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1325376000000
Duration500 Years
Includes Spontaneous?true
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Trigger Ruptures60366 Trigger Ruptures
First: M7.3 at 1852/01/05 04:40:39 UTC
Last: M3.2 at 2011/12/31 19:14:44 UTC
Largest: M7.9 at 1857/01/09 16:25:39 UTC
Config Generated Withu3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --random-seed 123456789 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec --scale-factor 1.4

Table Of Contents

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous

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Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥59.1537.87411.3429.0008.8888.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.17.2366.2388.9067.1127.1966.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.25.7144.9307.0645.6245.4125.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.34.5063.8885.5244.4304.2024.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.43.5443.0464.3423.4903.5023.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.52.7792.4023.4082.7442.7482.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.62.1731.8702.6482.1442.1122.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.71.6911.4602.0441.6741.6261.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.81.3071.1301.5601.2921.2921.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.90.9920.8501.1760.9840.9621.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥60.7820.6680.9140.7760.8020.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.10.6010.5120.7020.5980.5920.6601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.20.4730.4040.5560.4720.4580.5291.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.30.3710.3080.4380.3700.3720.4201.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.40.2900.2400.3440.2900.2900.3321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.50.2230.1820.2680.2240.2360.2601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.60.1730.1380.2100.1740.1760.2051.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.70.1340.1040.1660.1340.1340.1601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.80.1040.0800.1300.1040.1020.1271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.90.0810.0620.1040.0820.0840.1001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥70.0630.0440.0840.0640.0620.0781.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.10.0480.0320.0660.0480.0480.0601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.20.0360.0240.0500.0360.0360.0451.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.30.0290.0180.0400.0280.0280.0351.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.40.0220.0140.0320.0220.0220.0271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.50.0158.00E-30.0240.0160.0160.0191.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.60.0116.00E-30.0180.0120.0120.0141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.78.02E-34.00E-30.0148.00E-38.00E-39.58E-30.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]0.998 (99.80%)
M≥7.85.57E-32.00E-30.0106.00E-36.00E-36.19E-30.990 (99.00%)[98.10% 99.49%]0.990 (99.00%)
M≥7.93.10E-30.0006.00E-34.00E-34.00E-33.51E-30.884 (88.40%)[86.21% 90.29%]0.884 (88.40%)
M≥81.65E-30.0004.00E-32.00E-32.00E-32.03E-30.635 (63.50%)[60.42% 66.48%]0.635 (63.50%)
M≥8.17.66E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-30.343 (34.30%)[31.37% 37.35%]0.343 (34.30%)
M≥8.22.86E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0004.48E-40.136 (13.60%)[11.57% 15.92%]0.136 (13.60%)
M≥8.35.60E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-40.028 (2.80%)[1.90% 4.08%]0.028 (2.80%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)

Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

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Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥50.3470.1461.0880.2700.2328.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.997 (99.70%)0.093
M≥5.10.2740.1100.8640.2140.1766.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.997 (99.70%)0.074
M≥5.20.2160.0860.6560.1680.1185.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.997 (99.70%)0.059
M≥5.30.1700.0660.5160.1340.1084.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.997 (99.70%)0.047
M≥5.40.1340.0500.3920.1060.0803.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.997 (99.70%)0.038
M≥5.50.1050.0380.3180.0840.0722.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.997 (99.70%)0.030
M≥5.60.0820.0280.2460.0660.0562.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.997 (99.70%)0.024
M≥5.70.0640.0200.1900.0520.0361.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.997 (99.70%)0.019
M≥5.80.0490.0160.1460.0400.0341.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.997 (99.70%)0.015
M≥5.90.0370.0100.1080.0300.0241.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.012
M≥60.0288.00E-30.0800.0240.0220.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.992 (99.20%)9.59E-3
M≥6.10.0216.00E-30.0580.0180.0160.6600.997 (99.70%)[99.05% 99.92%]0.989 (98.90%)7.46E-3
M≥6.20.0174.00E-30.0440.0140.0140.5290.993 (99.30%)[98.50% 99.69%]0.976 (97.60%)6.13E-3
M≥6.30.0142.00E-30.0360.0128.00E-30.4200.983 (98.30%)[97.23% 98.97%]0.962 (96.20%)5.05E-3
M≥6.40.0110.0000.0280.0106.00E-30.3320.975 (97.50%)[96.28% 98.34%]0.947 (94.70%)4.05E-3
M≥6.58.04E-30.0000.0226.00E-34.00E-30.2600.947 (94.70%)[93.08% 95.97%]0.905 (90.50%)3.18E-3
M≥6.66.18E-30.0000.0186.00E-34.00E-30.2050.903 (90.30%)[88.25% 92.03%]0.859 (85.90%)2.45E-3
M≥6.74.86E-30.0000.0164.00E-32.00E-30.1600.851 (85.10%)[82.71% 87.22%]0.805 (80.50%)1.98E-3
M≥6.83.82E-30.0000.0124.00E-32.00E-30.1270.786 (78.60%)[75.90% 81.08%]0.742 (74.20%)1.57E-3
M≥6.93.11E-30.0000.0122.00E-32.00E-30.1000.719 (71.90%)[68.98% 74.65%]0.686 (68.60%)1.29E-3
M≥72.59E-30.0000.0102.00E-30.0000.0780.665 (66.50%)[63.47% 69.41%]0.638 (63.80%)1.08E-3
M≥7.11.99E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0600.579 (57.90%)[54.77% 60.97%]0.563 (56.30%)8.34E-4
M≥7.21.57E-30.0006.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0450.504 (50.40%)[47.26% 53.54%]0.494 (49.40%)6.54E-4
M≥7.31.28E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0350.440 (44.00%)[40.90% 47.14%]0.434 (43.40%)5.22E-4
M≥7.41.02E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0270.368 (36.80%)[33.82% 39.88%]0.367 (36.70%)4.36E-4
M≥7.57.48E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0190.283 (28.30%)[25.55% 31.22%]0.283 (28.30%)3.08E-4
M≥7.66.24E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0140.251 (25.10%)[22.46% 27.93%]0.251 (25.10%)2.58E-4
M≥7.74.62E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0009.58E-30.195 (19.50%)[17.12% 22.12%]0.195 (19.50%)1.78E-4
M≥7.83.22E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0006.19E-30.139 (13.90%)[11.85% 16.24%]0.139 (13.90%)1.14E-4
M≥7.91.80E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0003.51E-30.081 (8.10%)[6.52% 10.01%]0.081 (8.10%)6.40E-5
M≥88.00E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0002.03E-30.039 (3.90%)[2.82% 5.34%]0.039 (3.90%)3.20E-5
M≥8.12.40E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-30.012 (1.20%)[0.65% 2.15%]0.012 (1.20%)1.40E-5
M≥8.26.00E-60.0000.0000.0000.0004.48E-43.00E-3 (0.30%)[0.08% 0.95%]3.00E-3 (0.30%)4.00E-6
M≥8.34.00E-60.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-42.00E-3 (0.20%)[0.03% 0.80%]2.00E-3 (0.20%)2.00E-6
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Long Term Rate Variability

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162 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.09.1581078.8888898.3209881.60017037.2407417.9567910.21604912.734568
5.17.24083767.03086426.87037041.25779375.7345686.2962968.0864210.037037
5.25.71791555.54938275.7037040.9894954.52469164.9629636.3888897.882716
5.34.50858834.3888894.48148160.77331153.56172853.90740755.03086426.234568
5.43.54608633.45061733.3827160.599729242.80246933.0740743.95679024.8703704
5.52.78119972.70987652.68518520.461419882.17901232.41358023.10493833.808642
5.62.17379642.12345672.09876540.35066261.69753091.88888882.43209892.9753087
5.71.69252471.66049391.61728390.265715031.32098771.46913581.89506172.271605
5.81.30794861.28395061.22839510.198174151.01234571.13580251.46913581.7222222
5.90.9927490.975308661.01851860.14440840.75925930.864197551.11728391.3024691
6.00.78288480.771604960.790123460.1100586060.598765430.679012360.882716061.0185186
6.10.60193620.59259260.57407410.085971160.450617280.524691340.68518520.79012346
6.20.473681060.46913580.444444450.069857750.345679010.40740740.5370370.6234568
6.30.371259270.364197520.364197520.0579096340.271604930.31481480.425925940.49382716
6.40.289940330.290123460.290123460.047754850.20370370.246913580.333333340.39506173
6.50.223298360.222222220.222222220.0404487960.148148150.185185180.26543210.30864197
6.60.173609050.172839510.154320990.0337892470.111111110.141975310.209876540.24074075
6.70.133788060.129629630.135802460.0284650960.080246910.104938270.160493820.19135803
6.80.104598770.104938270.098765430.0242333880.0617283960.080246910.129629630.15432099
6.90.081569960.080246910.0740740750.0208964330.0432098770.0617283960.104938270.12962963
7.00.063594650.0617283960.0555555560.0183451360.0308641980.0432098770.080246910.10493827
7.10.0482119360.0493827160.0432098770.0157114960.0185185190.0308641980.0617283960.08024691
7.20.0361358040.0370370370.0308641980.0131652120.0123456790.0246913580.0493827160.061728396
7.30.0285925920.0308641980.0246913580.0114465420.00617283960.0185185190.0432098770.049382716
7.40.0219032910.0185185190.0185185190.009781560.00617283960.0123456790.0308641980.043209877
7.50.0154094650.0123456790.0123456790.0080720040.00.00617283960.0246913580.030864198
7.60.0114300410.0123456790.0123456790.0066816930.00.00617283960.0185185190.024691358
7.70.0080226330.00617283960.00617283960.00535011060.00.00.0123456790.018518519
7.80.00556172850.00617283960.00617283960.0044335670.00.00.0123456790.012345679
7.90.00310288070.00.00.00355671740.00.00.00617283960.012345679
8.00.00164609050.00.00.00283024670.00.00.00617283960.0061728396
8.17.592593E-40.00.00.00203988140.00.00.00.0061728396
8.22.7572017E-40.00.00.00127512930.00.00.00.0061728396
8.35.5555556E-50.00.05.829658E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

80 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.09.1620988.73758.73752.2191286.76257.610.487514.025
5.17.24421266.91256.551.74535475.3256.01258.287511.1375
5.25.7206755.46255.21.37235364.18754.73756.56258.775
5.34.51068744.31254.01.07453553.28753.7255.18756.8875
5.43.5478753.43.2250.835090162.56252.9254.0755.3875
5.52.78244382.6752.6750.64298321.98752.33.21254.1875
5.62.1746522.12.10.489314261.53751.78752.51253.2375
5.71.69331.63751.58750.37182251.18751.41.96252.5
5.81.30841041.2751.2250.278423130.91251.0751.51251.9125
5.90.992931250.9750.96250.204513420.6750.81251.151.4375
6.00.78292710.7750.76250.155931680.5250.63750.91251.1125
6.10.60187920.58750.58750.1220062750.40.48750.71250.875
6.20.473654180.46250.4250.099363920.30.3750.56250.6875
6.30.37127710.36250.33750.083086740.2250.28750.450.55
6.40.289954160.28750.2750.0698645860.16250.2250.36250.4375
6.50.223291670.2250.21250.0592544670.11250.16250.2750.35
6.60.173629160.1750.1750.0497545640.08750.1250.2250.2875
6.70.133822920.13750.1250.042136250.06250.08750.1750.225
6.80.104635420.10.10.0362686370.03750.0750.13750.1875
6.90.081581250.0750.0750.0314360220.0250.050.11250.15
7.00.06361250.06250.050.0275324020.01250.03750.08750.125
7.10.0482166670.050.03750.0237849950.01250.0250.0750.1
7.20.0361541660.03750.03750.020259030.00.01250.050.075
7.30.0286229160.0250.0250.0176341440.00.01250.050.0625
7.40.0219166670.0250.01250.0152589910.00.01250.03750.05
7.50.0154166670.01250.01250.0127284680.00.00.0250.0375
7.60.0114291660.01250.01250.0106945850.00.00.0250.0375
7.70.008018750.01250.00.0087527770.00.00.01250.025
7.80.005556250.00.00.0072914020.00.00.01250.025
7.90.003106250.00.00.0056330650.00.00.01250.0125
8.00.00165416660.00.00.004272390.00.00.00.0125
8.17.604167E-40.00.00.00299650760.00.00.00.0125
8.22.7291666E-40.00.00.00182673880.00.00.00.0
8.35.4166667E-50.00.08.21066E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

28 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.09.1620698.4285727.3571433.65184525.9285716.96428610.92857216.535715
5.17.2439796.6785715.8214292.8758094.6428575.58.67857213.0
5.25.72060065.2857144.9642862.26325733.6071434.3214296.89285710.285714
5.34.5106724.1785713.96428561.77422582.78571443.3928575.4642868.107142
5.43.54786973.28571443.17857151.37898242.17857152.6428574.3214296.321429
5.52.7823152.6071432.28571441.06315181.64285722.07142853.3928574.928571
5.62.1744352.03571441.78571430.81080151.251.60714282.67857153.857143
5.71.69306521.60714281.50.617455960.964285731.252.1071432.9642856
5.81.30823951.251.21428570.46144930.714285730.964285731.64285722.2857144
5.90.99274160.964285730.857142870.33977240.50.714285731.251.7142857
6.00.78273950.750.714285730.261503640.392857130.535714271.01.3571428
6.10.60177310.57142860.535714270.206832870.28571430.428571430.785714271.0714285
6.20.473567220.46428570.428571430.170145720.178571430.321428570.642857130.85714287
6.30.37120170.357142870.321428570.142375160.142857150.250.50.6785714
6.40.289863440.28571430.250.1207518060.107142860.178571430.392857130.5714286
6.50.223210080.214285720.178571430.102973680.0714285750.107142860.321428570.4642857
6.60.173529420.178571430.142857150.087532010.0357142870.0714285750.250.35714287
6.70.13374580.142857150.107142860.07471060.00.0714285750.214285720.2857143
6.80.104567230.107142860.0714285750.064549870.00.0357142870.178571430.25
6.90.081527310.0714285750.0714285750.056155970.00.0357142870.142857150.21428572
7.00.063548320.0714285750.0357142870.049132140.00.00.107142860.17857143
7.10.048155460.0357142870.0357142870.0425117870.00.00.0714285750.14285715
7.20.0361113440.0357142870.00.036406010.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.30.0285819320.0357142870.00.0320153870.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.40.0218844540.00.00.02775870.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.50.015399160.00.00.0231673340.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.60.0114180670.00.00.0198005480.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.70.0080084040.00.00.0163828710.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.80.0055546220.00.00.0135547780.00.00.00.035714287
7.90.00310294120.00.00.0102074620.00.00.00.035714287
8.00.00165336140.00.00.0075243030.00.00.00.035714287
8.17.584034E-40.00.00.00514885040.00.00.00.0
8.22.710084E-40.00.00.00309926220.00.00.00.0
8.35.4621847E-50.00.00.00139563480.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Variability Duration Dependence

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Duration Dependence Plot

Download CSV Here

Duration (years)MeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
1.09.152517.06.013.91092.04.012.028.0
4.09.152517.756.758.2208554.05.511.523.25
8.09.1561138.07.1256.12834454.756.12511.37520.75
12.09.1598628.1666677.255.2634345.16666656.416666511.2519.416666
16.09.1561138.257.54.5829665.43756.62511.187518.375
20.09.152518.37.64.1362345.76.7511.0517.75
24.09.1620988.3758.03.91814335.83333356.87511.017.125
28.09.1620698.4285727.3571433.65184525.9285716.96428610.92857216.535715
32.09.1620988.57.843753.39992796.06257.0312510.87516.375
36.09.1692488.57.72222233.33341536.16666657.13888910.83333315.861111
40.09.1620988.5757.553.06373986.257.17510.82515.65
44.09.1602838.5681828.2954553.00272736.3409097.227272510.81818215.431818
48.09.1620988.6041678.43752.90947156.3757.270833510.77083315.020833
52.09.1692488.5961547.9807692.84489756.40384637.346153710.73076914.903846
56.09.1724668.6607148.5357142.67479756.57.37510.64285814.785714
60.09.1620988.6833337.9833332.59589366.53333337.416666510.6514.7
64.09.1724668.68757.8593752.55623466.5781257.48437510.5937514.8125
68.09.1620698.6911767.6323532.47756726.6029417.510.58823514.338235
72.09.1844238.7222228.2361112.4635836.68055537.541666510.61111114.388889
76.09.1746168.7236847.82894752.36660436.7368427.578947510.51315814.355263
80.09.1620988.73758.73752.2191286.76257.610.487514.025
84.09.1857748.7738098.1309532.24807836.80952367.630952410.46428614.142858
88.09.17915258.7613648.1590912.21845486.85227257.647727510.48863613.988636
92.09.1727268.7717398.5326092.16283466.8804357.67391310.45652213.673913
96.09.1620988.7708338.2708332.11589036.906257.677083510.42708313.65625
100.09.152518.777.842.05754476.927.710.4113.56
200.09.193138.929.0051.52103567.4158.10510.2412.51
300.09.2355438.9966678.921.3284737.62333358.2810.063333512.206667
400.09.193138.9858.7651.08714017.8658.35259.95511.6525
500.09.152519.08.8880.956437777.8748.3649.86211.342

Simulation Stationarity

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Stationarity Plot

Moment Rate Plot

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 313 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0460761.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0037660.673 (67.30%)[64.28% 70.19%]0.0015240.047238618
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0311821.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]9.66E-40.329 (32.90%)[30.01% 35.92%]3.9E-40.03419009
Mendocino0.0203261.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]9.8E-40.350 (35.00%)[32.06% 38.06%]5.0E-40.028919645
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0199641.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0016040.337 (33.70%)[30.79% 36.74%]5.5E-40.016211301
Cerro Prieto0.0146521.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]7.24E-40.216 (21.60%)[19.11% 24.31%]2.5E-40.015186971
Imperial0.0127141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.82E-40.229 (22.90%)[20.35% 25.66%]2.86E-40.014349225
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0121141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.72E-40.188 (18.80%)[16.45% 21.39%]2.12E-40.013392845
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0103121.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.5E-40.203 (20.30%)[17.88% 22.96%]2.64E-40.009440966
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.009111.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.32E-40.269 (26.90%)[24.20% 29.78%]4.0E-40.008909097
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev0.0088240.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]2.6E-40.087 (8.70%)[7.06% 10.66%]7.6E-50.008455746

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 306 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
Cerro Prieto0.0126341.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.24E-40.203 (20.30%)[17.88% 22.96%]2.26E-40.013091409
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0116221.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.74E-40.199 (19.90%)[17.50% 22.54%]2.08E-40.012216282
Mendocino0.0102241.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.12E-40.248 (24.80%)[22.18% 27.62%]3.02E-40.012516479
Imperial0.0087721.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.52E-40.145 (14.50%)[12.41% 16.87%]1.64E-40.0096799815
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0087421.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.56E-40.172 (17.20%)[14.94% 19.72%]2.16E-40.008140643
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0083421.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.2E-40.132 (13.20%)[11.20% 15.49%]1.44E-40.009075132
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0074061.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.4E-40.179 (17.90%)[15.60% 20.45%]2.06E-40.00821497
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0073961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.88E-40.172 (17.20%)[14.94% 19.72%]1.68E-40.0067372364
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0069720.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]3.5E-40.139 (13.90%)[11.85% 16.24%]1.14E-40.0067538084
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0064540.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]5.32E-40.203 (20.30%)[17.88% 22.96%]2.78E-40.006658823

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 273 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0072460.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]3.72E-40.161 (16.10%)[13.91% 18.56%]1.58E-40.007612852
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0060061.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.5E-40.170 (17.00%)[14.75% 19.51%]2.02E-40.0057427646
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0059921.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.5E-40.171 (17.10%)[14.85% 19.61%]2.06E-40.005722108
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0057880.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]3.02E-40.131 (13.10%)[11.10% 15.39%]1.48E-40.0062776324
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0053960.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]3.56E-40.135 (13.50%)[11.47% 15.81%]1.26E-40.0052993274
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0049820.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]3.34E-40.133 (13.30%)[11.29% 15.60%]1.32E-40.0051040766
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0048640.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]3.18E-40.137 (13.70%)[11.66% 16.02%]1.46E-40.005556243
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0047040.978 (97.80%)[96.63% 98.58%]2.82E-40.118 (11.80%)[9.90% 14.00%]9.8E-50.004749499
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.004650.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]3.34E-40.132 (13.20%)[11.20% 15.49%]1.32E-40.0045623486
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0045640.990 (99.00%)[98.10% 99.49%]3.14E-40.141 (14.10%)[12.03% 16.45%]1.54E-40.0049385377

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 216 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0048920.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]3.26E-40.132 (13.20%)[11.20% 15.49%]1.28E-40.0049894005
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0045420.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]3.28E-40.131 (13.10%)[11.10% 15.39%]1.3E-40.0044245115
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0044140.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]2.8E-40.114 (11.40%)[9.53% 13.57%]1.02E-40.0045267143
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.004310.992 (99.20%)[98.36% 99.63%]3.1E-40.126 (12.60%)[10.64% 14.85%]1.22E-40.004201805
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0040960.988 (98.80%)[97.85% 99.35%]2.96E-40.121 (12.10%)[10.18% 14.32%]1.16E-40.0040264158
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0038440.987 (98.70%)[97.73% 99.28%]2.4E-40.107 (10.70%)[8.89% 12.82%]1.18E-40.0045710644
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0036380.949 (94.90%)[93.30% 96.14%]2.26E-40.098 (9.80%)[8.06% 11.85%]7.8E-50.0037959707
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0034840.909 (90.90%)[88.90% 92.57%]2.0E-40.095 (9.50%)[7.79% 11.53%]7.4E-50.0038110747
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0031720.914 (91.40%)[89.45% 93.03%]2.22E-40.099 (9.90%)[8.15% 11.96%]8.2E-50.0032088608
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM0.0031360.938 (93.80%)[92.08% 95.18%]1.64E-40.080 (8.00%)[6.43% 9.90%]7.4E-50.0035515025

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 65 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0014920.593 (59.30%)[56.17% 62.35%]7.8E-50.038 (3.80%)[2.74% 5.23%]3.2E-50.0018098651
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0014780.587 (58.70%)[55.57% 61.76%]7.8E-50.038 (3.80%)[2.74% 5.23%]3.2E-50.0017508415
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0014740.585 (58.50%)[55.37% 61.56%]7.8E-50.038 (3.80%)[2.74% 5.23%]3.2E-50.0017453934
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0014520.583 (58.30%)[55.17% 61.37%]7.8E-50.038 (3.80%)[2.74% 5.23%]3.2E-50.0017636013
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0014460.580 (58.00%)[54.87% 61.07%]7.6E-50.038 (3.80%)[2.74% 5.23%]3.2E-50.0017193216
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0013740.556 (55.60%)[52.45% 58.70%]7.4E-50.036 (3.60%)[2.57% 5.00%]3.2E-50.0016807786
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.001260.523 (52.30%)[49.15% 55.43%]7.0E-50.035 (3.50%)[2.49% 4.89%]3.0E-50.0015122787
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0011520.486 (48.60%)[45.46% 51.75%]6.0E-50.030 (3.00%)[2.07% 4.31%]2.4E-50.0014250289
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM8.14E-40.363 (36.30%)[33.33% 39.38%]2.4E-50.012 (1.20%)[0.65% 2.15%]1.4E-50.0010319632
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM6.78E-40.306 (30.60%)[27.77% 33.58%]2.0E-50.010 (1.00%)[0.51% 1.90%]1.0E-59.2652056E-4

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 1000,
  "duration": 500.0,
  "startYear": 2012,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 123456789,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_triggered_descendants",
      "descendantsOnly": true
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV\u003d1.5, Scale Factor 1.4, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2020_12_03-Start2012_500yr_kCOV1p5_ScaleFactor1p4_Spontaneous_HistoricalCatalog",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.4,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "etas_k_cov": 1.5,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --random-seed 123456789 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec --scale-factor 1.4",
  "configTime": 1607013674530
}