M6.5OnSAF Results

M6.5OnSAF
Num Simulations25000
Start Time2020/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1577836800000
Duration1 Year
Includes Spontaneous?false
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Config Generated Withu3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2020 --num-simulations 25000 --duration-years 1 --magnitude 6.5 --latitude 34.695 --depth 5 --longitude -118.5 --name M6.5OnSAF --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec

Table Of Contents

Probabilities Summary Table

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Magnitude1 Hour Prob1 Day Prob1 Week Prob1 Month Prob1 Year Prob
M≥31.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf[99.98% 100.00%][99.98% 100.00%][99.98% 100.00%][99.98% 100.00%][99.98% 100.00%]
M≥3.51.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf[99.98% 100.00%][99.98% 100.00%][99.98% 100.00%][99.98% 100.00%][99.98% 100.00%]
M≥40.974 (97.40%)1.000 (99.98%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf[97.19% 97.59%][99.94% 99.99%][99.98% 100.00%][99.98% 100.00%][99.98% 100.00%]
M≥4.50.689 (68.88%)0.944 (94.41%)0.980 (97.97%)0.991 (99.07%)0.997 (99.72%)
95% Conf[68.30% 69.45%][94.12% 94.69%][97.78% 98.14%][98.94% 99.19%][99.65% 99.78%]
M≥50.304 (30.36%)0.593 (59.35%)0.711 (71.11%)0.774 (77.42%)0.850 (84.95%)
95% Conf[29.80% 30.94%][58.74% 59.96%][70.54% 71.67%][76.90% 77.94%][84.50% 85.39%]
M≥5.50.095 (9.54%)0.229 (22.92%)0.307 (30.68%)0.359 (35.93%)0.438 (43.80%)
95% Conf[9.18% 9.92%][22.41% 23.45%][30.11% 31.26%][35.33% 36.53%][43.18% 44.42%]
M≥60.019 (1.87%)0.048 (4.82%)0.069 (6.86%)0.083 (8.35%)0.109 (10.90%)
95% Conf[1.71% 2.05%][4.56% 5.09%][6.55% 7.18%][8.01% 8.70%][10.52% 11.30%]
M≥6.53.48E-3 (0.35%)8.04E-3 (0.80%)0.012 (1.20%)0.015 (1.52%)0.021 (2.08%)
95% Conf[0.28% 0.43%][0.70% 0.92%][1.07% 1.34%][1.37% 1.68%][1.91% 2.27%]
M≥73.00E-3 (0.30%)6.48E-3 (0.65%)9.80E-3 (0.98%)0.012 (1.21%)0.017 (1.66%)
95% Conf[0.24% 0.38%][0.55% 0.76%][0.86% 1.11%][1.08% 1.36%][1.51% 1.83%]
M≥7.52.64E-3 (0.26%)5.72E-3 (0.57%)8.60E-3 (0.86%)0.010 (1.04%)0.014 (1.40%)
95% Conf[0.21% 0.34%][0.48% 0.68%][0.75% 0.98%][0.92% 1.18%][1.26% 1.56%]
M≥86.00E-4 (0.06%)1.08E-3 (0.11%)1.60E-3 (0.16%)1.84E-3 (0.18%)2.52E-3 (0.25%)
95% Conf[0.03% 0.10%][0.07% 0.16%][0.12% 0.22%][0.14% 0.25%][0.20% 0.32%]

Magnitude Number Distribution

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1 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 yr Probability1 yr Prob 95% Conf1 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.51068.924582.0001541.000732.000658.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.024 (2.40%)465.695
M≥2.6849.124459.0001227.000581.000555.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.024 (2.40%)369.940
M≥2.7674.481361.000982.000462.000442.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.024 (2.40%)293.820
M≥2.8535.864284.000780.000368.000339.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.024 (2.40%)233.487
M≥2.9425.631223.000617.000293.000273.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.024 (2.40%)185.467
M≥3338.044174.000490.000233.000217.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.024 (2.40%)147.306
M≥3.1268.494136.000394.000185.000175.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.024 (2.40%)117.000
M≥3.2213.254106.000313.000147.000139.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.024 (2.40%)92.917
M≥3.3169.33882.000250.000117.000107.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.024 (2.40%)73.783
M≥3.4134.46564.000201.00093.00086.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.024 (2.40%)58.589
M≥3.5106.74249.000160.00074.00070.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.024 (2.40%)46.491
M≥3.684.76637.000128.00059.00053.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.024 (2.40%)36.899
M≥3.767.33128.000102.00047.00043.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.024 (2.40%)29.303
M≥3.853.41921.00083.00037.00033.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.024 (2.40%)23.236
M≥3.942.39816.00068.00029.00027.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.024 (2.40%)18.447
M≥433.65412.00055.00023.00022.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.024 (2.40%)14.646
M≥4.126.7039.00045.00018.00016.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.024 (2.40%)11.627
M≥4.221.1686.00037.00015.00013.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.024 (2.40%)9.221
M≥4.316.7724.00030.00011.00010.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.97% 100.00%]0.024 (2.40%)7.304
M≥4.413.2943.00025.0009.0008.0001.000 (99.96%)[99.92% 99.98%]0.024 (2.40%)5.793
M≥4.510.5202.00021.0007.0006.0000.997 (99.72%)[99.65% 99.78%]0.024 (2.40%)4.587
M≥4.68.3161.00017.0006.0004.0000.991 (99.12%)[99.00% 99.23%]0.024 (2.40%)3.630
M≥4.76.5731.00014.0004.0003.0000.976 (97.64%)[97.44% 97.82%]0.024 (2.40%)2.868
M≥4.85.1770.00012.0003.0003.0000.949 (94.85%)[94.57% 95.12%]0.024 (2.40%)2.263
M≥4.94.0840.00010.0003.0002.0000.906 (90.57%)[90.20% 90.93%]0.024 (2.40%)1.785
M≥53.2180.0009.0002.0001.0000.850 (84.95%)[84.50% 85.39%]0.024 (2.40%)1.401
M≥5.12.5250.0007.0002.0001.0000.780 (77.98%)[77.46% 78.49%]0.024 (2.40%)1.101
M≥5.21.9730.0006.0001.0001.0000.703 (70.33%)[69.76% 70.89%]0.024 (2.40%)0.860
M≥5.31.5340.0005.0001.0000.0000.617 (61.68%)[61.07% 62.28%]0.024 (2.40%)0.670
M≥5.41.1810.0005.0001.0000.0000.529 (52.92%)[52.30% 53.54%]0.024 (2.40%)0.516
M≥5.50.9020.0004.0000.0000.0000.438 (43.80%)[43.18% 44.42%]0.024 (2.40%)0.393
M≥5.60.6770.0003.0000.0000.0000.357 (35.70%)[35.10% 36.29%]0.024 (2.40%)0.292
M≥5.70.5060.0003.0000.0000.0000.284 (28.40%)[27.84% 28.96%]0.024 (2.40%)0.219
M≥5.80.3650.0002.0000.0000.0000.218 (21.78%)[21.27% 22.30%]0.024 (2.40%)0.156
M≥5.90.2530.0002.0000.0000.0000.159 (15.85%)[15.40% 16.31%]0.024 (2.40%)0.106
M≥60.1680.0001.0000.0000.0000.109 (10.90%)[10.52% 11.30%]0.024 (2.38%)0.070
M≥6.10.1040.0001.0000.0000.0000.068 (6.82%)[6.51% 7.14%]0.024 (2.35%)0.041
M≥6.20.0650.0001.0000.0000.0000.044 (4.41%)[4.16% 4.68%]0.023 (2.33%)0.024
M≥6.30.0460.0001.0000.0000.0000.032 (3.18%)[2.97% 3.41%]0.023 (2.30%)0.017
M≥6.40.0340.0000.0000.0000.0000.024 (2.43%)[2.25% 2.63%]0.021 (2.13%)0.014
M≥6.50.0280.0000.0000.0000.0000.021 (2.08%)[1.91% 2.27%]0.019 (1.86%)0.012
M≥6.60.0240.0000.0000.0000.0000.020 (1.96%)[1.80% 2.15%]0.018 (1.80%)0.011
M≥6.70.0210.0000.0000.0000.0000.018 (1.83%)[1.67% 2.00%]0.017 (1.73%)0.011
M≥6.80.0200.0000.0000.0000.0000.018 (1.77%)[1.61% 1.95%]0.017 (1.71%)0.010
M≥6.90.0180.0000.0000.0000.0000.017 (1.70%)[1.55% 1.87%]0.017 (1.67%)0.010
M≥70.0180.0000.0000.0000.0000.017 (1.66%)[1.51% 1.83%]0.016 (1.64%)9.96E-3
M≥7.10.0170.0000.0000.0000.0000.016 (1.63%)[1.48% 1.79%]0.016 (1.62%)9.92E-3
M≥7.20.0160.0000.0000.0000.0000.016 (1.58%)[1.43% 1.74%]0.016 (1.57%)9.64E-3
M≥7.30.0150.0000.0000.0000.0000.015 (1.48%)[1.34% 1.64%]0.015 (1.48%)9.20E-3
M≥7.40.0150.0000.0000.0000.0000.015 (1.45%)[1.31% 1.61%]0.015 (1.45%)9.12E-3
M≥7.50.0140.0000.0000.0000.0000.014 (1.40%)[1.26% 1.56%]0.014 (1.40%)8.88E-3
M≥7.60.0130.0000.0000.0000.0000.013 (1.34%)[1.21% 1.50%]0.013 (1.34%)8.44E-3
M≥7.70.0120.0000.0000.0000.0000.012 (1.21%)[1.08% 1.35%]0.012 (1.21%)7.68E-3
M≥7.89.92E-30.0000.0000.0000.0009.92E-3 (0.99%)[0.87% 1.12%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)6.24E-3
M≥7.95.80E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.80E-3 (0.58%)[0.49% 0.68%]5.80E-3 (0.58%)3.88E-3
M≥82.52E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.52E-3 (0.25%)[0.20% 0.32%]2.52E-3 (0.25%)1.68E-3
M≥8.15.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.60E-4 (0.06%)[0.03% 0.10%]5.60E-4 (0.06%)3.60E-4
M≥8.21.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)1.20E-4
M≥8.38.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0008.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)4.00E-5
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Month Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 mo Probability1 mo Prob 95% Conf1 mo Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5738.185451.000987.000552.000518.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.017 (1.70%)388.261
M≥2.6586.400355.000788.000439.000410.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.017 (1.70%)308.411
M≥2.7465.771280.000624.000349.000333.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.017 (1.70%)244.943
M≥2.8370.058219.000499.000278.000260.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.017 (1.70%)194.643
M≥2.9293.916171.000397.000221.000202.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.017 (1.70%)154.612
M≥3233.403133.000315.000176.000169.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.017 (1.70%)122.797
M≥3.1185.394104.000254.000140.000130.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.017 (1.70%)97.534
M≥3.2147.24181.000203.000111.000107.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.017 (1.70%)77.450
M≥3.3116.92162.000163.00088.00085.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.017 (1.70%)61.513
M≥3.492.86048.000131.00070.00067.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.017 (1.70%)48.848
M≥3.573.72536.000106.00056.00053.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.017 (1.70%)38.768
M≥3.658.54628.00085.00044.00041.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.017 (1.70%)30.773
M≥3.746.48821.00068.00035.00034.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.017 (1.70%)24.440
M≥3.836.88415.00055.00028.00027.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.017 (1.70%)19.378
M≥3.929.28711.00045.00022.00021.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.017 (1.70%)15.389
M≥423.2428.00037.00018.00016.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.017 (1.70%)12.212
M≥4.118.4416.00031.00014.00013.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.97% 100.00%]0.017 (1.70%)9.690
M≥4.214.6054.00025.00011.00010.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.96% 100.00%]0.017 (1.70%)7.677
M≥4.311.5633.00021.0009.0007.0000.999 (99.92%)[99.87% 99.95%]0.017 (1.70%)6.076
M≥4.49.1702.00017.0007.0006.0000.997 (99.70%)[99.63% 99.77%]0.017 (1.70%)4.825
M≥4.57.2611.00014.0005.0005.0000.991 (99.07%)[98.94% 99.19%]0.017 (1.70%)3.822
M≥4.65.7381.00012.0004.0004.0000.975 (97.52%)[97.31% 97.70%]0.017 (1.70%)3.024
M≥4.74.5320.00010.0003.0003.0000.948 (94.76%)[94.47% 95.03%]0.017 (1.70%)2.388
M≥4.83.5730.0009.0002.0002.0000.904 (90.43%)[90.06% 90.79%]0.017 (1.70%)1.883
M≥4.92.8230.0007.0002.0001.0000.845 (84.52%)[84.06% 84.97%]0.017 (1.70%)1.487
M≥52.2220.0006.0001.0001.0000.774 (77.42%)[76.90% 77.94%]0.017 (1.70%)1.167
M≥5.11.7460.0005.0001.0001.0000.694 (69.37%)[68.80% 69.94%]0.017 (1.70%)0.918
M≥5.21.3640.0005.0001.0000.0000.610 (61.03%)[60.42% 61.63%]0.017 (1.70%)0.720
M≥5.31.0630.0004.0001.0000.0000.525 (52.47%)[51.85% 53.09%]0.017 (1.70%)0.561
M≥5.40.8180.0003.0000.0000.0000.441 (44.10%)[43.48% 44.71%]0.017 (1.70%)0.431
M≥5.50.6260.0003.0000.0000.0000.359 (35.93%)[35.33% 36.53%]0.017 (1.70%)0.328
M≥5.60.4710.0002.0000.0000.0000.289 (28.88%)[28.32% 29.45%]0.017 (1.70%)0.246
M≥5.70.3520.0002.0000.0000.0000.227 (22.70%)[22.19% 23.23%]0.017 (1.70%)0.184
M≥5.80.2530.0002.0000.0000.0000.171 (17.13%)[16.66% 17.60%]0.017 (1.70%)0.132
M≥5.90.1760.0001.0000.0000.0000.124 (12.38%)[11.98% 12.80%]0.017 (1.69%)0.091
M≥60.1160.0001.0000.0000.0000.083 (8.35%)[8.01% 8.70%]0.017 (1.69%)0.060
M≥6.10.0700.0001.0000.0000.0000.052 (5.15%)[4.88% 5.44%]0.017 (1.67%)0.035
M≥6.20.0430.0001.0000.0000.0000.032 (3.22%)[3.01% 3.45%]0.017 (1.66%)0.021
M≥6.30.0300.0000.0000.0000.0000.023 (2.31%)[2.13% 2.51%]0.016 (1.64%)0.014
M≥6.40.0230.0000.0000.0000.0000.018 (1.77%)[1.61% 1.95%]0.015 (1.54%)0.011
M≥6.50.0190.0000.0000.0000.0000.015 (1.52%)[1.37% 1.68%]0.014 (1.35%)9.60E-3
M≥6.60.0160.0000.0000.0000.0000.014 (1.43%)[1.29% 1.58%]0.013 (1.31%)9.32E-3
M≥6.70.0150.0000.0000.0000.0000.013 (1.34%)[1.20% 1.49%]0.013 (1.26%)8.88E-3
M≥6.80.0140.0000.0000.0000.0000.013 (1.30%)[1.16% 1.45%]0.012 (1.25%)8.60E-3
M≥6.90.0130.0000.0000.0000.0000.012 (1.24%)[1.11% 1.39%]0.012 (1.22%)8.36E-3
M≥70.0130.0000.0000.0000.0000.012 (1.21%)[1.08% 1.36%]0.012 (1.20%)8.16E-3
M≥7.10.0120.0000.0000.0000.0000.012 (1.18%)[1.06% 1.33%]0.012 (1.18%)8.12E-3
M≥7.20.0120.0000.0000.0000.0000.012 (1.16%)[1.03% 1.30%]0.012 (1.15%)7.88E-3
M≥7.30.0110.0000.0000.0000.0000.011 (1.08%)[0.96% 1.22%]0.011 (1.08%)7.52E-3
M≥7.40.0110.0000.0000.0000.0000.011 (1.06%)[0.94% 1.20%]0.011 (1.06%)7.48E-3
M≥7.50.0110.0000.0000.0000.0000.010 (1.04%)[0.92% 1.18%]0.010 (1.04%)7.36E-3
M≥7.69.92E-30.0000.0000.0000.0009.88E-3 (0.99%)[0.87% 1.12%]9.88E-3 (0.99%)7.00E-3
M≥7.78.96E-30.0000.0000.0000.0008.92E-3 (0.89%)[0.78% 1.02%]8.92E-3 (0.89%)6.40E-3
M≥7.87.44E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.44E-3 (0.74%)[0.64% 0.86%]7.44E-3 (0.74%)5.32E-3
M≥7.94.32E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.32E-3 (0.43%)[0.36% 0.52%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)3.32E-3
M≥81.84E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.84E-3 (0.18%)[0.14% 0.25%]1.84E-3 (0.18%)1.36E-3
M≥8.13.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)2.40E-4
M≥8.21.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)1.20E-4
M≥8.38.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0008.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)4.00E-5
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Week Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 wk Probability1 wk Prob 95% Conf1 wk Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5572.897374.000747.000449.000435.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.34%)336.532
M≥2.6455.134293.000594.000358.000349.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.34%)267.330
M≥2.7361.504230.000473.000284.000271.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.34%)212.320
M≥2.8287.218180.000378.000226.000213.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.34%)168.720
M≥2.9228.081141.000302.000180.000172.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.34%)134.000
M≥3181.138109.000241.000143.000135.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.34%)106.430
M≥3.1143.86985.000193.000114.000106.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.34%)84.527
M≥3.2114.24766.000155.00090.00087.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.34%)67.106
M≥3.390.73450.000124.00072.00069.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.34%)53.292
M≥3.472.07438.000100.00057.00057.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.34%)42.314
M≥3.557.21629.00081.00045.00044.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.34%)33.579
M≥3.645.43822.00066.00036.00035.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.34%)26.656
M≥3.736.09417.00053.00029.00028.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.34%)21.180
M≥3.828.63012.00043.00023.00023.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.34%)16.788
M≥3.922.7399.00035.00018.00017.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.34%)13.326
M≥418.0516.00029.00014.00013.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.34%)10.576
M≥4.114.3194.00024.00011.00010.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.96% 100.00%]0.013 (1.34%)8.388
M≥4.211.3373.00020.0009.0008.0000.999 (99.94%)[99.90% 99.97%]0.013 (1.34%)6.640
M≥4.38.9802.00016.0007.0006.0000.998 (99.77%)[99.70% 99.82%]0.013 (1.34%)5.254
M≥4.47.1221.00014.0005.0005.0000.992 (99.20%)[99.08% 99.31%]0.013 (1.34%)4.175
M≥4.55.6431.00012.0004.0004.0000.980 (97.97%)[97.78% 98.14%]0.013 (1.34%)3.307
M≥4.64.4550.00010.0003.0003.0000.954 (95.37%)[95.10% 95.63%]0.013 (1.34%)2.614
M≥4.73.5160.0008.0003.0002.0000.915 (91.53%)[91.18% 91.87%]0.013 (1.34%)2.065
M≥4.82.7750.0007.0002.0001.0000.860 (86.01%)[85.57% 86.44%]0.013 (1.34%)1.629
M≥4.92.1920.0006.0002.0001.0000.789 (78.87%)[78.36% 79.38%]0.013 (1.34%)1.287
M≥51.7270.0005.0001.0001.0000.711 (71.11%)[70.54% 71.67%]0.013 (1.34%)1.011
M≥5.11.3600.0004.0001.0000.0000.628 (62.76%)[62.16% 63.36%]0.013 (1.34%)0.798
M≥5.21.0620.0004.0001.0000.0000.542 (54.17%)[53.55% 54.79%]0.013 (1.34%)0.625
M≥5.30.8280.0003.0000.0000.0000.458 (45.84%)[45.22% 46.46%]0.013 (1.34%)0.487
M≥5.40.6380.0003.0000.0000.0000.381 (38.07%)[37.47% 38.67%]0.013 (1.34%)0.375
M≥5.50.4870.0002.0000.0000.0000.307 (30.68%)[30.11% 31.26%]0.013 (1.34%)0.285
M≥5.60.3680.0002.0000.0000.0000.245 (24.52%)[23.99% 25.06%]0.013 (1.34%)0.215
M≥5.70.2730.0002.0000.0000.0000.190 (19.02%)[18.54% 19.51%]0.013 (1.34%)0.160
M≥5.80.1960.0001.0000.0000.0000.142 (14.21%)[13.78% 14.65%]0.013 (1.34%)0.114
M≥5.90.1360.0001.0000.0000.0000.102 (10.17%)[9.80% 10.55%]0.013 (1.34%)0.078
M≥60.0890.0001.0000.0000.0000.069 (6.86%)[6.55% 7.18%]0.013 (1.34%)0.052
M≥6.10.0540.0001.0000.0000.0000.042 (4.18%)[3.93% 4.43%]0.013 (1.32%)0.030
M≥6.20.0320.0001.0000.0000.0000.026 (2.56%)[2.37% 2.76%]0.013 (1.31%)0.017
M≥6.30.0230.0000.0000.0000.0000.018 (1.81%)[1.65% 1.98%]0.013 (1.29%)0.012
M≥6.40.0170.0000.0000.0000.0000.014 (1.37%)[1.23% 1.52%]0.012 (1.21%)9.40E-3
M≥6.50.0150.0000.0000.0000.0000.012 (1.20%)[1.07% 1.34%]0.011 (1.08%)8.20E-3
M≥6.60.0130.0000.0000.0000.0000.011 (1.14%)[1.01% 1.28%]0.011 (1.06%)8.04E-3
M≥6.70.0120.0000.0000.0000.0000.011 (1.06%)[0.94% 1.20%]0.010 (1.02%)7.68E-3
M≥6.80.0110.0000.0000.0000.0000.010 (1.04%)[0.92% 1.18%]0.010 (1.01%)7.48E-3
M≥6.90.0110.0000.0000.0000.0000.010 (1.00%)[0.89% 1.14%]9.88E-3 (0.99%)7.28E-3
M≥70.0100.0000.0000.0000.0009.80E-3 (0.98%)[0.86% 1.11%]9.72E-3 (0.97%)7.16E-3
M≥7.10.0100.0000.0000.0000.0009.68E-3 (0.97%)[0.85% 1.10%]9.64E-3 (0.96%)7.12E-3
M≥7.29.76E-30.0000.0000.0000.0009.52E-3 (0.95%)[0.84% 1.08%]9.48E-3 (0.95%)6.96E-3
M≥7.39.08E-30.0000.0000.0000.0008.96E-3 (0.90%)[0.78% 1.02%]8.96E-3 (0.90%)6.64E-3
M≥7.48.92E-30.0000.0000.0000.0008.80E-3 (0.88%)[0.77% 1.01%]8.80E-3 (0.88%)6.60E-3
M≥7.58.68E-30.0000.0000.0000.0008.60E-3 (0.86%)[0.75% 0.98%]8.60E-3 (0.86%)6.48E-3
M≥7.68.16E-30.0000.0000.0000.0008.12E-3 (0.81%)[0.71% 0.93%]8.12E-3 (0.81%)6.16E-3
M≥7.77.32E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.28E-3 (0.73%)[0.63% 0.84%]7.28E-3 (0.73%)5.56E-3
M≥7.86.16E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.16E-3 (0.62%)[0.52% 0.72%]6.16E-3 (0.62%)4.72E-3
M≥7.93.52E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.52E-3 (0.35%)[0.28% 0.44%]3.52E-3 (0.35%)2.88E-3
M≥81.60E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.60E-3 (0.16%)[0.12% 0.22%]1.60E-3 (0.16%)1.20E-3
M≥8.12.40E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.06%]2.40E-4 (0.02%)2.00E-4
M≥8.21.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)1.20E-4
M≥8.34.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.03%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)4.00E-5
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Day Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 d Probability1 d Prob 95% Conf1 d Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5375.018266.000479.000318.000313.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)258.870
M≥2.6297.896209.000381.000253.000250.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)205.611
M≥2.7236.566163.000305.000201.000191.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)163.303
M≥2.8187.956127.000244.000160.000160.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)129.762
M≥2.9149.24499.000195.000127.000121.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)103.050
M≥3118.52476.000156.000101.00096.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)81.856
M≥3.194.13559.000126.00080.00077.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)65.017
M≥3.274.75545.000101.00064.00063.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)51.620
M≥3.359.37335.00082.00051.00049.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)40.995
M≥3.447.16326.00066.00040.00039.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)32.540
M≥3.537.43220.00054.00032.00032.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)25.824
M≥3.629.71715.00044.00025.00025.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)20.507
M≥3.723.61311.00036.00020.00019.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)16.296
M≥3.818.7358.00029.00016.00015.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)12.917
M≥3.914.8736.00024.00013.00012.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)10.252
M≥411.7994.00020.00010.0009.0001.000 (99.98%)[99.94% 99.99%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)8.130
M≥4.19.3623.00017.0008.0007.0000.999 (99.89%)[99.84% 99.93%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)6.450
M≥4.27.4112.00014.0006.0005.0000.997 (99.66%)[99.57% 99.72%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)5.107
M≥4.35.8681.00012.0005.0004.0000.989 (98.90%)[98.76% 99.02%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)4.042
M≥4.44.6460.00010.0004.0003.0000.973 (97.26%)[97.05% 97.46%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)3.209
M≥4.53.6820.0008.0003.0003.0000.944 (94.41%)[94.12% 94.69%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)2.542
M≥4.62.9080.0007.0002.0002.0000.897 (89.66%)[89.27% 90.03%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)2.009
M≥4.72.2970.0006.0002.0001.0000.837 (83.66%)[83.19% 84.11%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)1.587
M≥4.81.8110.0005.0001.0001.0000.760 (76.05%)[75.51% 76.58%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)1.252
M≥4.91.4300.0004.0001.0001.0000.679 (67.86%)[67.27% 68.43%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)0.988
M≥51.1260.0004.0001.0000.0000.593 (59.35%)[58.74% 59.96%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)0.776
M≥5.10.8860.0003.0001.0000.0000.509 (50.92%)[50.29% 51.54%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)0.611
M≥5.20.6930.0003.0000.0000.0000.430 (43.04%)[42.43% 43.66%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)0.479
M≥5.30.5390.0003.0000.0000.0000.355 (35.52%)[34.92% 36.11%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)0.372
M≥5.40.4160.0002.0000.0000.0000.290 (28.98%)[28.41% 29.54%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)0.287
M≥5.50.3160.0002.0000.0000.0000.229 (22.92%)[22.41% 23.45%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)0.218
M≥5.60.2390.0002.0000.0000.0000.181 (18.07%)[17.60% 18.56%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)0.165
M≥5.70.1770.0001.0000.0000.0000.138 (13.78%)[13.36% 14.22%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)0.122
M≥5.80.1260.0001.0000.0000.0000.102 (10.17%)[9.80% 10.55%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)0.087
M≥5.90.0880.0001.0000.0000.0000.072 (7.18%)[6.87% 7.51%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)0.060
M≥60.0570.0001.0000.0000.0000.048 (4.82%)[4.56% 5.09%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)0.039
M≥6.10.0340.0001.0000.0000.0000.029 (2.88%)[2.68% 3.10%]9.08E-3 (0.91%)0.023
M≥6.20.0200.0000.0000.0000.0000.017 (1.73%)[1.57% 1.90%]9.04E-3 (0.90%)0.013
M≥6.30.0140.0000.0000.0000.0000.012 (1.23%)[1.10% 1.38%]8.92E-3 (0.89%)9.28E-3
M≥6.40.0110.0000.0000.0000.0009.32E-3 (0.93%)[0.82% 1.06%]8.32E-3 (0.83%)7.32E-3
M≥6.59.32E-30.0000.0000.0000.0008.04E-3 (0.80%)[0.70% 0.92%]7.36E-3 (0.74%)6.44E-3
M≥6.68.48E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.68E-3 (0.77%)[0.67% 0.89%]7.20E-3 (0.72%)6.36E-3
M≥6.77.64E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.20E-3 (0.72%)[0.62% 0.83%]6.92E-3 (0.69%)6.04E-3
M≥6.87.32E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.00E-3 (0.70%)[0.60% 0.81%]6.84E-3 (0.68%)5.84E-3
M≥6.96.92E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.68E-3 (0.67%)[0.57% 0.78%]6.60E-3 (0.66%)5.64E-3
M≥76.68E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.48E-3 (0.65%)[0.55% 0.76%]6.44E-3 (0.64%)5.52E-3
M≥7.16.64E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.44E-3 (0.64%)[0.55% 0.75%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)5.48E-3
M≥7.26.44E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.32E-3 (0.63%)[0.54% 0.74%]6.28E-3 (0.63%)5.36E-3
M≥7.35.96E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.92E-3 (0.59%)[0.50% 0.70%]5.92E-3 (0.59%)5.12E-3
M≥7.45.84E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.80E-3 (0.58%)[0.49% 0.68%]5.80E-3 (0.58%)5.08E-3
M≥7.55.72E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.72E-3 (0.57%)[0.48% 0.68%]5.72E-3 (0.57%)5.00E-3
M≥7.65.44E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.44E-3 (0.54%)[0.46% 0.65%]5.44E-3 (0.54%)4.76E-3
M≥7.74.88E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.88E-3 (0.49%)[0.41% 0.58%]4.88E-3 (0.49%)4.24E-3
M≥7.84.16E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.16E-3 (0.42%)[0.34% 0.51%]4.16E-3 (0.42%)3.68E-3
M≥7.92.48E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.48E-3 (0.25%)[0.19% 0.32%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)2.28E-3
M≥81.08E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.08E-3 (0.11%)[0.07% 0.16%]1.08E-3 (0.11%)9.60E-4
M≥8.12.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)1.60E-4
M≥8.28.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0008.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)8.00E-5
M≥8.34.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.03%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)4.00E-5
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Hour Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 hr Probability1 hr Prob 95% Conf1 hr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5130.20498.000158.000122.000123.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)113.919
M≥2.6103.42476.000127.00097.00094.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)90.484
M≥2.782.12759.000103.00077.00075.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)71.861
M≥2.865.24745.00083.00061.00061.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)57.091
M≥2.951.81635.00068.00049.00047.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)45.344
M≥341.17626.00055.00039.00038.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)36.024
M≥3.132.72520.00045.00031.00030.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)28.625
M≥3.225.99715.00037.00024.00024.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)22.736
M≥3.320.63511.00031.00019.00019.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)18.046
M≥3.416.3728.00025.00015.00015.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)14.312
M≥3.512.9856.00021.00012.00012.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)11.353
M≥3.610.3114.00017.00010.0009.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.97% 100.00%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)9.015
M≥3.78.1863.00014.0008.0007.0000.999 (99.93%)[99.88% 99.96%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)7.160
M≥3.86.4902.00012.0006.0005.0000.998 (99.76%)[99.69% 99.82%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)5.676
M≥3.95.1501.00010.0005.0004.0000.990 (99.02%)[98.89% 99.14%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)4.503
M≥44.0880.0009.0004.0003.0000.974 (97.40%)[97.19% 97.59%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)3.573
M≥4.13.2410.0007.0003.0002.0000.945 (94.53%)[94.24% 94.81%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)2.832
M≥4.22.5650.0006.0002.0002.0000.900 (90.04%)[89.66% 90.41%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)2.242
M≥4.32.0280.0005.0002.0001.0000.841 (84.14%)[83.68% 84.59%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)1.772
M≥4.41.6120.0005.0001.0001.0000.768 (76.85%)[76.32% 77.37%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)1.409
M≥4.51.2830.0004.0001.0001.0000.689 (68.88%)[68.30% 69.45%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)1.122
M≥4.61.0190.0003.0001.0000.0000.606 (60.64%)[60.03% 61.25%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)0.890
M≥4.70.8030.0003.0001.0000.0000.523 (52.34%)[51.71% 52.96%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)0.702
M≥4.80.6310.0003.0000.0000.0000.441 (44.10%)[43.48% 44.72%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)0.553
M≥4.90.4990.0002.0000.0000.0000.371 (37.09%)[36.49% 37.69%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)0.437
M≥50.3910.0002.0000.0000.0000.304 (30.36%)[29.80% 30.94%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)0.341
M≥5.10.3060.0002.0000.0000.0000.248 (24.78%)[24.25% 25.32%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)0.269
M≥5.20.2390.0002.0000.0000.0000.200 (19.99%)[19.50% 20.49%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)0.210
M≥5.30.1850.0001.0000.0000.0000.158 (15.84%)[15.39% 16.30%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)0.163
M≥5.40.1430.0001.0000.0000.0000.124 (12.43%)[12.03% 12.85%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)0.126
M≥5.50.1080.0001.0000.0000.0000.095 (9.54%)[9.18% 9.92%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)0.095
M≥5.60.0800.0001.0000.0000.0000.072 (7.18%)[6.87% 7.51%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)0.071
M≥5.70.0590.0001.0000.0000.0000.054 (5.40%)[5.12% 5.69%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)0.053
M≥5.80.0420.0001.0000.0000.0000.039 (3.89%)[3.66% 4.14%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)0.037
M≥5.90.0300.0001.0000.0000.0000.028 (2.76%)[2.56% 2.97%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)0.026
M≥60.0200.0000.0000.0000.0000.019 (1.87%)[1.71% 2.05%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)0.017
M≥6.10.0120.0000.0000.0000.0000.011 (1.15%)[1.02% 1.29%]3.72E-3 (0.37%)0.011
M≥6.27.60E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.24E-3 (0.72%)[0.62% 0.84%]3.72E-3 (0.37%)6.56E-3
M≥6.35.28E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.96E-3 (0.50%)[0.41% 0.59%]3.64E-3 (0.36%)4.48E-3
M≥6.44.16E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.92E-3 (0.39%)[0.32% 0.48%]3.44E-3 (0.34%)3.52E-3
M≥6.53.72E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.48E-3 (0.35%)[0.28% 0.43%]3.16E-3 (0.32%)3.12E-3
M≥6.63.60E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.44E-3 (0.34%)[0.28% 0.43%]3.12E-3 (0.31%)3.12E-3
M≥6.73.32E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.20E-3 (0.32%)[0.26% 0.40%]3.00E-3 (0.30%)2.96E-3
M≥6.83.12E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.08E-3 (0.31%)[0.24% 0.39%]3.00E-3 (0.30%)2.84E-3
M≥6.93.04E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.00E-3 (0.30%)[0.24% 0.38%]2.96E-3 (0.30%)2.80E-3
M≥73.04E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.00E-3 (0.30%)[0.24% 0.38%]2.96E-3 (0.30%)2.80E-3
M≥7.13.00E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.96E-3 (0.30%)[0.23% 0.37%]2.92E-3 (0.29%)2.76E-3
M≥7.22.96E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.92E-3 (0.29%)[0.23% 0.37%]2.88E-3 (0.29%)2.72E-3
M≥7.32.72E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.72E-3 (0.27%)[0.21% 0.35%]2.72E-3 (0.27%)2.56E-3
M≥7.42.68E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.68E-3 (0.27%)[0.21% 0.34%]2.68E-3 (0.27%)2.56E-3
M≥7.52.64E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.64E-3 (0.26%)[0.21% 0.34%]2.64E-3 (0.26%)2.52E-3
M≥7.62.52E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.52E-3 (0.25%)[0.20% 0.32%]2.52E-3 (0.25%)2.40E-3
M≥7.72.12E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.12E-3 (0.21%)[0.16% 0.28%]2.12E-3 (0.21%)2.00E-3
M≥7.81.80E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.80E-3 (0.18%)[0.13% 0.24%]1.80E-3 (0.18%)1.72E-3
M≥7.91.04E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.04E-3 (0.10%)[0.07% 0.15%]1.04E-3 (0.10%)1.04E-3
M≥86.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0006.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.03% 0.10%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)6.00E-4
M≥8.18.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0008.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)8.00E-5
M≥8.24.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.03%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)4.00E-5
M≥8.34.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.03%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)4.00E-5
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Hazard Change Over Time

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These plots show how the probability of ruptures of various magnitudes within 100km of any scenario rupture changes over time

M≥5.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard Change

Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour0.302 [0.296 - 0.307]0.3027.94E-53800.177.88E-5
1 Day0.591 [0.585 - 0.597]0.5911.90E-3310.71.89E-3
1 Week0.712 [0.706 - 0.717]0.7080.01353.740.013
1 Month0.784 [0.779 - 0.789]0.7710.05614.120.055
1 Year0.924 [0.921 - 0.926]0.8470.5011.840.499
10 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **0.9991 *0.999
30 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **1.0001 *1.000
100 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **1.0001 *1.000

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 1 year are included

M≥6.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard Change

Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour0.019 [0.017 - 0.020]0.0191.22E-51523.481.16E-5
1 Day0.048 [0.045 - 0.051]0.0482.92E-4164.32.79E-4
1 Week0.070 [0.067 - 0.073]0.0682.04E-334.121.95E-3
1 Month0.090 [0.087 - 0.094]0.0828.72E-310.358.34E-3
1 Year0.198 [0.194 - 0.201]0.1070.1011.950.097
10 Years0.688 [0.687 - 0.689] **0.6501.06 *0.639
30 Years0.958 [0.958 - 0.958] **0.9531.01 *0.953
100 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **1.0001 *1.000

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 1 year are included

M≥7.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard Change

Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour3.00E-3 [2.38E-3 - 3.78E-3]3.00E-32.78E-61079.892.57E-6
1 Day6.51E-3 [5.57E-3 - 7.60E-3]6.44E-36.67E-597.56.17E-5
1 Week0.010 [8.95E-3 - 0.011]9.64E-34.67E-421.634.32E-4
1 Month0.014 [0.013 - 0.015]0.0122.00E-36.931.85E-3
1 Year0.040 [0.039 - 0.042]0.0160.0241.660.022
10 Years0.229 [0.228 - 0.231] **0.2171.06 *0.202
30 Years0.524 [0.524 - 0.525] **0.5161.02 *0.491
100 Years0.882 [0.882 - 0.882] **0.8801 *0.895

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 1 year are included

M≥8.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard Change

Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour6.00E-4 [3.49E-4 - 1.01E-3]6.00E-43.29E-71826.452.77E-7
1 Day1.09E-3 [7.34E-4 - 1.60E-3]1.08E-37.89E-6137.916.66E-6
1 Week1.66E-3 [1.21E-3 - 2.26E-3]1.60E-35.52E-529.974.66E-5
1 Month2.08E-3 [1.60E-3 - 2.71E-3]1.84E-32.37E-48.772.00E-4
1 Year5.39E-3 [4.82E-3 - 6.11E-3]2.52E-32.88E-31.872.43E-3
10 Years0.032 [0.031 - 0.033] **0.0291.08 *0.024
30 Years0.095 [0.094 - 0.095] **0.0921.02 *0.070
100 Years0.285 [0.284 - 0.285] **0.2831.01 *0.216

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 1 year are included

Trigger Rupture Fault Map

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Map

Fault Distances To Triggers

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Section NameStrike, Dip, RakeHypocenter In Polygon?Surface In Polygon?Minimum Distance (km)Minimum Poly Distance (km)
San Andreas (Mojave S)115, 90, 180truetrue0.3230.000
San Andreas (Mojave N)109, 90, 180falsefalse0.9480.895
San Gabriel313, 61, 161falsefalse18.03715.250

Individual Simulated Catalog Maps

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These are map plots of individual catalogs from the simulations, selected as the closest catalog to each of the given percentiles in terms of total number of events.

Durationp0.0 %-ilep25.0 %-ilep50.0 %-ilep75.0 %-ilep90.0 %-ilep95.0 %-ilep97.5 %-ilep98.0 %-ilep99.0 %-ilep99.996 %-ile
1 WeekMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap
1 MonthMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap
1 YearMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min Mag1 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)1 yr Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 143 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 1 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.01887.08E-3 (0.71%)[0.61% 0.82%]0.010 (1.04%)[0.92% 1.18%]0.013 (1.30%)[1.16% 1.45%]0.018 (1.81%)[1.65% 1.99%]0.01088
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.015126.00E-3 (0.60%)[0.51% 0.71%]8.92E-3 (0.89%)[0.78% 1.02%]0.011 (1.10%)[0.98% 1.24%]0.015 (1.50%)[1.35% 1.66%]0.0094
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.012764.92E-3 (0.49%)[0.41% 0.59%]7.36E-3 (0.74%)[0.64% 0.85%]9.08E-3 (0.91%)[0.80% 1.04%]0.012 (1.24%)[1.11% 1.39%]0.00768
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.013.96E-3 (0.40%)[0.32% 0.48%]6.12E-3 (0.61%)[0.52% 0.72%]7.44E-3 (0.74%)[0.64% 0.86%]0.010 (1.00%)[0.88% 1.13%]0.00636
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.009723.64E-3 (0.36%)[0.29% 0.45%]5.52E-3 (0.55%)[0.47% 0.65%]6.72E-3 (0.67%)[0.58% 0.78%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)[0.81% 1.05%]0.00572
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.009283.72E-3 (0.37%)[0.30% 0.46%]5.76E-3 (0.58%)[0.49% 0.68%]6.88E-3 (0.69%)[0.59% 0.80%]9.24E-3 (0.92%)[0.81% 1.05%]0.0058
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.006322.36E-3 (0.24%)[0.18% 0.31%]3.44E-3 (0.34%)[0.28% 0.43%]4.44E-3 (0.44%)[0.37% 0.54%]5.96E-3 (0.60%)[0.51% 0.70%]0.0036
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)0.005522.28E-3 (0.23%)[0.17% 0.30%]3.16E-3 (0.32%)[0.25% 0.40%]3.96E-3 (0.40%)[0.32% 0.48%]5.52E-3 (0.55%)[0.47% 0.65%]0.00328
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)0.00361.68E-3 (0.17%)[0.12% 0.23%]2.36E-3 (0.24%)[0.18% 0.31%]2.96E-3 (0.30%)[0.23% 0.37%]3.60E-3 (0.36%)[0.29% 0.44%]0.00236
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.003481.20E-3 (0.12%)[0.08% 0.17%]1.60E-3 (0.16%)[0.12% 0.22%]2.16E-3 (0.22%)[0.16% 0.28%]2.96E-3 (0.30%)[0.23% 0.37%]0.00212

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 117 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 1 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.015085.96E-3 (0.60%)[0.51% 0.70%]8.96E-3 (0.90%)[0.78% 1.02%]0.011 (1.08%)[0.96% 1.22%]0.015 (1.50%)[1.35% 1.66%]0.00928
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0155.92E-3 (0.59%)[0.50% 0.70%]8.84E-3 (0.88%)[0.77% 1.01%]0.011 (1.09%)[0.97% 1.23%]0.015 (1.49%)[1.34% 1.65%]0.00928
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.012324.88E-3 (0.49%)[0.41% 0.58%]7.24E-3 (0.72%)[0.62% 0.84%]8.92E-3 (0.89%)[0.78% 1.02%]0.012 (1.21%)[1.08% 1.35%]0.00764
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.013.96E-3 (0.40%)[0.32% 0.48%]6.12E-3 (0.61%)[0.52% 0.72%]7.44E-3 (0.74%)[0.64% 0.86%]0.010 (1.00%)[0.88% 1.13%]0.00636
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.009523.64E-3 (0.36%)[0.29% 0.45%]5.52E-3 (0.55%)[0.47% 0.65%]6.72E-3 (0.67%)[0.58% 0.78%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)[0.81% 1.05%]0.00572
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.009243.72E-3 (0.37%)[0.30% 0.46%]5.76E-3 (0.58%)[0.49% 0.68%]6.88E-3 (0.69%)[0.59% 0.80%]9.24E-3 (0.92%)[0.81% 1.05%]0.0058
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.005562.28E-3 (0.23%)[0.17% 0.30%]3.28E-3 (0.33%)[0.26% 0.41%]4.20E-3 (0.42%)[0.35% 0.51%]5.56E-3 (0.56%)[0.47% 0.66%]0.0036
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)0.005442.24E-3 (0.22%)[0.17% 0.29%]3.08E-3 (0.31%)[0.24% 0.39%]3.88E-3 (0.39%)[0.32% 0.48%]5.44E-3 (0.54%)[0.46% 0.65%]0.00328
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)0.00361.68E-3 (0.17%)[0.12% 0.23%]2.36E-3 (0.24%)[0.18% 0.31%]2.96E-3 (0.30%)[0.23% 0.37%]3.60E-3 (0.36%)[0.29% 0.44%]0.00236
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0031.20E-3 (0.12%)[0.08% 0.17%]1.60E-3 (0.16%)[0.12% 0.22%]2.16E-3 (0.22%)[0.16% 0.28%]2.92E-3 (0.29%)[0.23% 0.37%]0.00212

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 91 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 1 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.014685.76E-3 (0.58%)[0.49% 0.68%]8.68E-3 (0.87%)[0.76% 0.99%]0.011 (1.07%)[0.95% 1.21%]0.015 (1.46%)[1.31% 1.61%]0.00912
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.014485.84E-3 (0.58%)[0.50% 0.69%]8.76E-3 (0.88%)[0.77% 1.00%]0.011 (1.05%)[0.93% 1.19%]0.014 (1.44%)[1.30% 1.60%]0.00896
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.012044.84E-3 (0.48%)[0.40% 0.58%]7.20E-3 (0.72%)[0.62% 0.83%]8.84E-3 (0.88%)[0.77% 1.01%]0.012 (1.20%)[1.07% 1.34%]0.00764
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.013.96E-3 (0.40%)[0.32% 0.48%]6.12E-3 (0.61%)[0.52% 0.72%]7.44E-3 (0.74%)[0.64% 0.86%]0.010 (1.00%)[0.88% 1.13%]0.00636
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.009243.72E-3 (0.37%)[0.30% 0.46%]5.76E-3 (0.58%)[0.49% 0.68%]6.88E-3 (0.69%)[0.59% 0.80%]9.24E-3 (0.92%)[0.81% 1.05%]0.0058
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.009083.60E-3 (0.36%)[0.29% 0.44%]5.40E-3 (0.54%)[0.45% 0.64%]6.60E-3 (0.66%)[0.57% 0.77%]9.08E-3 (0.91%)[0.80% 1.04%]0.00572
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.005562.28E-3 (0.23%)[0.17% 0.30%]3.28E-3 (0.33%)[0.26% 0.41%]4.20E-3 (0.42%)[0.35% 0.51%]5.56E-3 (0.56%)[0.47% 0.66%]0.0036
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)0.0052.16E-3 (0.22%)[0.16% 0.28%]3.00E-3 (0.30%)[0.24% 0.38%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)[0.31% 0.46%]5.00E-3 (0.50%)[0.42% 0.60%]0.00328
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)0.003521.68E-3 (0.17%)[0.12% 0.23%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)[0.18% 0.30%]2.92E-3 (0.29%)[0.23% 0.37%]3.52E-3 (0.35%)[0.28% 0.44%]0.00236
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.002881.20E-3 (0.12%)[0.08% 0.17%]1.60E-3 (0.16%)[0.12% 0.22%]2.12E-3 (0.21%)[0.16% 0.28%]2.88E-3 (0.29%)[0.23% 0.36%]0.00208

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 58 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 1 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.01385.56E-3 (0.56%)[0.47% 0.66%]8.40E-3 (0.84%)[0.73% 0.96%]0.010 (1.02%)[0.90% 1.15%]0.014 (1.38%)[1.24% 1.53%]0.00872
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.01325.36E-3 (0.54%)[0.45% 0.64%]8.12E-3 (0.81%)[0.71% 0.93%]9.76E-3 (0.98%)[0.86% 1.11%]0.013 (1.32%)[1.18% 1.47%]0.0084
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.011524.80E-3 (0.48%)[0.40% 0.58%]7.08E-3 (0.71%)[0.61% 0.82%]8.60E-3 (0.86%)[0.75% 0.98%]0.012 (1.15%)[1.03% 1.29%]0.00744
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.013.96E-3 (0.40%)[0.32% 0.48%]6.12E-3 (0.61%)[0.52% 0.72%]7.44E-3 (0.74%)[0.64% 0.86%]0.010 (1.00%)[0.88% 1.13%]0.00636
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.009243.72E-3 (0.37%)[0.30% 0.46%]5.76E-3 (0.58%)[0.49% 0.68%]6.88E-3 (0.69%)[0.59% 0.80%]9.24E-3 (0.92%)[0.81% 1.05%]0.0058
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.008843.56E-3 (0.36%)[0.29% 0.44%]5.28E-3 (0.53%)[0.44% 0.63%]6.48E-3 (0.65%)[0.55% 0.76%]8.84E-3 (0.88%)[0.77% 1.01%]0.00568
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.005562.28E-3 (0.23%)[0.17% 0.30%]3.28E-3 (0.33%)[0.26% 0.41%]4.20E-3 (0.42%)[0.35% 0.51%]5.56E-3 (0.56%)[0.47% 0.66%]0.0036
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)0.004962.16E-3 (0.22%)[0.16% 0.28%]3.00E-3 (0.30%)[0.24% 0.38%]3.76E-3 (0.38%)[0.31% 0.46%]4.96E-3 (0.50%)[0.41% 0.59%]0.00328
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)0.003521.68E-3 (0.17%)[0.12% 0.23%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)[0.18% 0.30%]2.92E-3 (0.29%)[0.23% 0.37%]3.52E-3 (0.35%)[0.28% 0.44%]0.00236
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.002881.20E-3 (0.12%)[0.08% 0.17%]1.60E-3 (0.16%)[0.12% 0.22%]2.12E-3 (0.21%)[0.16% 0.28%]2.88E-3 (0.29%)[0.23% 0.36%]0.00208

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 38 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 1 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.002521.08E-3 (0.11%)[0.07% 0.16%]1.60E-3 (0.16%)[0.12% 0.22%]1.84E-3 (0.18%)[0.14% 0.25%]2.52E-3 (0.25%)[0.20% 0.32%]0.00168
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.002521.08E-3 (0.11%)[0.07% 0.16%]1.60E-3 (0.16%)[0.12% 0.22%]1.84E-3 (0.18%)[0.14% 0.25%]2.52E-3 (0.25%)[0.20% 0.32%]0.00168
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.002521.08E-3 (0.11%)[0.07% 0.16%]1.60E-3 (0.16%)[0.12% 0.22%]1.84E-3 (0.18%)[0.14% 0.25%]2.52E-3 (0.25%)[0.20% 0.32%]0.00168
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.002249.60E-4 (0.10%)[0.06% 0.15%]1.44E-3 (0.14%)[0.10% 0.20%]1.68E-3 (0.17%)[0.12% 0.23%]2.24E-3 (0.22%)[0.17% 0.29%]0.00152
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.002249.60E-4 (0.10%)[0.06% 0.15%]1.44E-3 (0.14%)[0.10% 0.20%]1.68E-3 (0.17%)[0.12% 0.23%]2.24E-3 (0.22%)[0.17% 0.29%]0.00152
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.00229.60E-4 (0.10%)[0.06% 0.15%]1.44E-3 (0.14%)[0.10% 0.20%]1.64E-3 (0.16%)[0.12% 0.22%]2.20E-3 (0.22%)[0.17% 0.29%]0.00148
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)0.001688.80E-4 (0.09%)[0.06% 0.14%]1.16E-3 (0.12%)[0.08% 0.17%]1.32E-3 (0.13%)[0.09% 0.19%]1.68E-3 (0.17%)[0.12% 0.23%]0.00112
San Andreas (Coachella) rev0.00167.60E-4 (0.08%)[0.05% 0.12%]1.12E-3 (0.11%)[0.08% 0.16%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)[0.08% 0.17%]1.60E-3 (0.16%)[0.12% 0.22%]0.001
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)0.00168.40E-4 (0.08%)[0.05% 0.13%]1.12E-3 (0.11%)[0.08% 0.16%]1.24E-3 (0.12%)[0.09% 0.18%]1.60E-3 (0.16%)[0.12% 0.22%]0.00104
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.001446.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.03% 0.10%]8.40E-4 (0.08%)[0.05% 0.13%]1.04E-3 (0.10%)[0.07% 0.15%]1.44E-3 (0.14%)[0.10% 0.20%]0.00104

Fault Magnitude-Probability Distributions

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The first 5 sections (sorted by trigger rate) are plotted below. All fault MPDs are available here

1 Week1 Month1 Year
MPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPD

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥2.5Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 25000,
  "duration": 1.0,
  "startYear": 2020,
  "includeSpontaneous": false,
  "randomSeed": 1583281188645,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "M6.5OnSAF",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2020_03_03-M6p5OnSAF",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "triggerRuptures": [
    {
      "mag": 6.5,
      "latitude": 34.695,
      "longitude": -118.50000000000001,
      "depth": 5.0
    }
  ],
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.14,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2020 --num-simulations 25000 --duration-years 1 --magnitude 6.5 --latitude 34.695 --depth 5 --longitude -118.5 --name M6.5OnSAF --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec",
  "configTime": 1583281188645
}