M6.5AwaySAF Results

M6.5AwaySAF
Num Simulations25000
Start Time2020/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1577836800000
Duration1 Year
Includes Spontaneous?false
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Config Generated Withu3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2020 --num-simulations 25000 --duration-years 1 --magnitude 6.5 --latitude 34.695 --depth 5 --longitude -117.7 --name M6.5AwaySAF --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec

Table Of Contents

Probabilities Summary Table

(top)

Magnitude1 Hour Prob1 Day Prob1 Week Prob1 Month Prob1 Year Prob
M≥31.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf[99.98% 100.00%][99.98% 100.00%][99.98% 100.00%][99.98% 100.00%][99.98% 100.00%]
M≥3.51.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf[99.97% 100.00%][99.98% 100.00%][99.98% 100.00%][99.98% 100.00%][99.98% 100.00%]
M≥40.974 (97.38%)1.000 (99.99%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf[97.17% 97.57%][99.97% 100.00%][99.98% 100.00%][99.98% 100.00%][99.98% 100.00%]
M≥4.50.688 (68.83%)0.946 (94.63%)0.982 (98.16%)0.990 (99.04%)0.997 (99.71%)
95% Conf[68.25% 69.40%][94.34% 94.91%][97.98% 98.32%][98.90% 99.15%][99.64% 99.77%]
M≥50.311 (31.06%)0.605 (60.49%)0.723 (72.28%)0.783 (78.28%)0.857 (85.68%)
95% Conf[30.49% 31.64%][59.88% 61.10%][71.72% 72.84%][77.76% 78.79%][85.24% 86.11%]
M≥5.50.107 (10.74%)0.248 (24.80%)0.332 (33.24%)0.388 (38.81%)0.469 (46.85%)
95% Conf[10.36% 11.13%][24.26% 25.34%][32.66% 33.83%][38.21% 39.42%][46.23% 47.47%]
M≥60.032 (3.22%)0.081 (8.10%)0.112 (11.21%)0.137 (13.70%)0.177 (17.70%)
95% Conf[3.01% 3.45%][7.76% 8.44%][10.82% 11.61%][13.27% 14.13%][17.23% 18.18%]
M≥6.58.00E-3 (0.80%)0.021 (2.10%)0.030 (2.96%)0.038 (3.77%)0.051 (5.07%)
95% Conf[0.70% 0.92%][1.93% 2.29%][2.75% 3.18%][3.54% 4.02%][4.80% 5.35%]
M≥71.32E-3 (0.13%)3.36E-3 (0.34%)4.84E-3 (0.48%)6.12E-3 (0.61%)9.12E-3 (0.91%)
95% Conf[0.09% 0.19%][0.27% 0.42%][0.40% 0.58%][0.52% 0.72%][0.80% 1.04%]
M≥7.52.40E-4 (0.02%)4.00E-4 (0.04%)7.20E-4 (0.07%)1.16E-3 (0.12%)1.96E-3 (0.20%)
95% Conf[0.01% 0.06%][0.02% 0.08%][0.04% 0.12%][0.08% 0.17%][0.15% 0.26%]
M≥88.00E-5 (0.01%)1.20E-4 (0.01%)1.60E-4 (0.02%)2.00E-4 (0.02%)3.60E-4 (0.04%)
95% Conf[0.00% 0.03%][0.00% 0.04%][0.01% 0.04%][0.01% 0.05%][0.02% 0.07%]

Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

1 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 yr Probability1 yr Prob 95% Conf1 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5933.922582.0002351.000742.000691.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.021 (2.14%)465.628
M≥2.6741.688460.0001867.000590.000515.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.021 (2.14%)369.772
M≥2.7589.111362.0001485.000469.000432.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.021 (2.14%)293.636
M≥2.8467.886284.0001179.000373.000344.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.021 (2.14%)233.286
M≥2.9371.515223.000938.000297.000271.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.021 (2.14%)185.195
M≥3295.182174.000745.000236.000214.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.021 (2.14%)147.165
M≥3.1234.428136.000593.000188.000175.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.021 (2.14%)116.870
M≥3.2186.189106.000474.000150.000137.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.021 (2.14%)92.796
M≥3.3147.87382.000377.000119.000110.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.021 (2.14%)73.723
M≥3.4117.49963.000298.00095.00082.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.021 (2.14%)58.577
M≥3.593.30149.000239.00075.00068.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.021 (2.14%)46.515
M≥3.674.09637.000191.00060.00054.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.021 (2.14%)36.921
M≥3.758.82728.000152.00048.00044.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.021 (2.14%)29.313
M≥3.846.75321.000121.00038.00033.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.021 (2.14%)23.287
M≥3.937.09316.00096.00030.00025.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.021 (2.14%)18.475
M≥429.45312.00077.00024.00021.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.021 (2.14%)14.676
M≥4.123.3678.00062.00019.00018.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.021 (2.14%)11.651
M≥4.218.5416.00051.00015.00013.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.021 (2.14%)9.238
M≥4.314.7174.00041.00012.00010.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.97% 100.00%]0.021 (2.14%)7.336
M≥4.411.6693.00033.0009.0008.0000.999 (99.95%)[99.91% 99.97%]0.021 (2.14%)5.813
M≥4.59.2602.00027.0007.0006.0000.997 (99.71%)[99.64% 99.77%]0.021 (2.14%)4.615
M≥4.67.3461.00022.0006.0005.0000.990 (99.03%)[98.90% 99.14%]0.021 (2.14%)3.661
M≥4.75.8201.00018.0005.0003.0000.976 (97.64%)[97.44% 97.82%]0.021 (2.14%)2.903
M≥4.84.6040.00015.0004.0002.0000.951 (95.06%)[94.78% 95.32%]0.021 (2.14%)2.293
M≥4.93.6470.00012.0003.0002.0000.910 (91.02%)[90.66% 91.37%]0.021 (2.14%)1.820
M≥52.8920.00010.0002.0001.0000.857 (85.68%)[85.24% 86.11%]0.021 (2.14%)1.441
M≥5.12.2830.0008.0002.0001.0000.793 (79.32%)[78.81% 79.82%]0.021 (2.14%)1.136
M≥5.21.8010.0007.0001.0001.0000.716 (71.57%)[71.01% 72.13%]0.021 (2.14%)0.896
M≥5.31.4230.0006.0001.0000.0000.636 (63.62%)[63.02% 64.21%]0.021 (2.14%)0.709
M≥5.41.1130.0005.0001.0000.0000.551 (55.06%)[54.44% 55.68%]0.021 (2.14%)0.551
M≥5.50.8670.0004.0000.0000.0000.469 (46.85%)[46.23% 47.47%]0.021 (2.14%)0.429
M≥5.60.6780.0004.0000.0000.0000.394 (39.36%)[38.75% 39.97%]0.021 (2.14%)0.336
M≥5.70.5280.0003.0000.0000.0000.326 (32.58%)[32.00% 33.17%]0.021 (2.14%)0.260
M≥5.80.4060.0003.0000.0000.0000.266 (26.62%)[26.07% 27.17%]0.021 (2.14%)0.200
M≥5.90.3130.0002.0000.0000.0000.216 (21.61%)[21.10% 22.13%]0.021 (2.13%)0.154
M≥60.2450.0002.0000.0000.0000.177 (17.70%)[17.23% 18.18%]0.021 (2.13%)0.122
M≥6.10.1980.0002.0000.0000.0000.149 (14.88%)[14.45% 15.33%]0.021 (2.10%)0.099
M≥6.20.1560.0001.0000.0000.0000.121 (12.11%)[11.71% 12.52%]0.020 (1.99%)0.077
M≥6.30.1180.0001.0000.0000.0000.094 (9.45%)[9.09% 9.82%]0.018 (1.82%)0.057
M≥6.40.0840.0001.0000.0000.0000.071 (7.06%)[6.75% 7.39%]0.013 (1.26%)0.041
M≥6.50.0570.0001.0000.0000.0000.051 (5.07%)[4.80% 5.35%]7.28E-3 (0.73%)0.029
M≥6.60.0410.0001.0000.0000.0000.037 (3.74%)[3.51% 3.98%]6.80E-3 (0.68%)0.021
M≥6.70.0280.0001.0000.0000.0000.026 (2.62%)[2.42% 2.82%]4.88E-3 (0.49%)0.014
M≥6.80.0190.0000.0000.0000.0000.018 (1.80%)[1.64% 1.98%]4.28E-3 (0.43%)9.80E-3
M≥6.90.0130.0000.0000.0000.0000.012 (1.21%)[1.08% 1.36%]3.96E-3 (0.40%)5.88E-3
M≥79.72E-30.0000.0000.0000.0009.12E-3 (0.91%)[0.80% 1.04%]3.60E-3 (0.36%)4.12E-3
M≥7.16.84E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.44E-3 (0.64%)[0.55% 0.75%]3.04E-3 (0.30%)2.88E-3
M≥7.24.88E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.68E-3 (0.47%)[0.39% 0.56%]2.80E-3 (0.28%)1.84E-3
M≥7.33.72E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.56E-3 (0.36%)[0.29% 0.44%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)1.28E-3
M≥7.42.60E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.52E-3 (0.25%)[0.20% 0.32%]2.08E-3 (0.21%)8.80E-4
M≥7.52.04E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.96E-3 (0.20%)[0.15% 0.26%]1.88E-3 (0.19%)6.00E-4
M≥7.61.92E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.84E-3 (0.18%)[0.14% 0.25%]1.80E-3 (0.18%)6.00E-4
M≥7.71.64E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.56E-3 (0.16%)[0.11% 0.22%]1.52E-3 (0.15%)5.20E-4
M≥7.81.40E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.40E-3 (0.14%)[0.10% 0.20%]1.36E-3 (0.14%)4.80E-4
M≥7.98.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0008.00E-4 (0.08%)[0.05% 0.13%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)3.20E-4
M≥83.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.60E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.07%]3.60E-4 (0.04%)2.40E-4
M≥8.14.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.03%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)4.00E-5
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Month Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 mo Probability1 mo Prob 95% Conf1 mo Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5657.596452.0001471.000556.000504.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.35%)388.179
M≥2.6522.202356.0001164.000442.000411.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.35%)308.261
M≥2.7414.731279.000926.000352.000333.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.35%)244.789
M≥2.8329.378219.000735.000280.000264.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.35%)194.469
M≥2.9261.549171.000585.000222.000207.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.35%)154.392
M≥3207.808134.000466.000177.000166.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.35%)122.690
M≥3.1165.036104.000370.000141.000132.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.35%)97.440
M≥3.2131.04280.000295.000112.000105.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.35%)77.368
M≥3.3104.08362.000234.00089.00082.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.35%)61.462
M≥3.482.68748.000187.00071.00063.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.35%)48.837
M≥3.565.66136.000149.00056.00054.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.35%)38.778
M≥3.652.15228.000118.00045.00040.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.35%)30.784
M≥3.741.40021.00095.00036.00033.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.35%)24.438
M≥3.832.89916.00077.00028.00026.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.35%)19.407
M≥3.926.10811.00062.00023.00021.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.35%)15.400
M≥420.7348.00050.00018.00015.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.35%)12.234
M≥4.116.4476.00040.00014.00013.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.35%)9.715
M≥4.213.0484.00032.00011.00010.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.97% 100.00%]0.013 (1.35%)7.699
M≥4.310.3613.00026.0009.0007.0000.999 (99.93%)[99.89% 99.96%]0.013 (1.35%)6.113
M≥4.48.2142.00021.0007.0006.0000.997 (99.72%)[99.64% 99.78%]0.013 (1.35%)4.844
M≥4.56.5161.00018.0005.0004.0000.990 (99.04%)[98.90% 99.15%]0.013 (1.35%)3.842
M≥4.65.1731.00015.0004.0003.0000.975 (97.55%)[97.35% 97.73%]0.013 (1.35%)3.051
M≥4.74.0960.00012.0003.0003.0000.949 (94.90%)[94.62% 95.17%]0.013 (1.35%)2.417
M≥4.83.2390.00010.0003.0002.0000.906 (90.62%)[90.25% 90.98%]0.013 (1.35%)1.909
M≥4.92.5690.0008.0002.0001.0000.850 (85.02%)[84.57% 85.46%]0.013 (1.35%)1.517
M≥52.0400.0007.0002.0001.0000.783 (78.28%)[77.76% 78.79%]0.013 (1.35%)1.204
M≥5.11.6070.0006.0001.0001.0000.709 (70.88%)[70.32% 71.45%]0.013 (1.35%)0.947
M≥5.21.2660.0005.0001.0000.0000.625 (62.50%)[61.90% 63.10%]0.013 (1.35%)0.746
M≥5.31.0000.0004.0001.0000.0000.544 (54.44%)[53.82% 55.05%]0.013 (1.35%)0.589
M≥5.40.7800.0004.0000.0000.0000.463 (46.25%)[45.63% 46.87%]0.013 (1.35%)0.457
M≥5.50.6090.0003.0000.0000.0000.388 (38.81%)[38.21% 39.42%]0.013 (1.35%)0.357
M≥5.60.4740.0003.0000.0000.0000.320 (32.04%)[31.46% 32.62%]0.013 (1.35%)0.279
M≥5.70.3690.0002.0000.0000.0000.262 (26.24%)[25.69% 26.79%]0.013 (1.35%)0.216
M≥5.80.2840.0002.0000.0000.0000.212 (21.23%)[20.72% 21.74%]0.013 (1.35%)0.166
M≥5.90.2200.0002.0000.0000.0000.169 (16.94%)[16.48% 17.41%]0.013 (1.34%)0.129
M≥60.1730.0002.0000.0000.0000.137 (13.70%)[13.27% 14.13%]0.013 (1.34%)0.102
M≥6.10.1400.0001.0000.0000.0000.115 (11.48%)[11.08% 11.88%]0.013 (1.32%)0.083
M≥6.20.1090.0001.0000.0000.0000.092 (9.22%)[8.86% 9.58%]0.012 (1.25%)0.065
M≥6.30.0830.0001.0000.0000.0000.071 (7.11%)[6.79% 7.44%]0.011 (1.14%)0.048
M≥6.40.0590.0001.0000.0000.0000.052 (5.22%)[4.95% 5.51%]7.76E-3 (0.78%)0.034
M≥6.50.0410.0001.0000.0000.0000.038 (3.77%)[3.54% 4.02%]4.60E-3 (0.46%)0.024
M≥6.60.0300.0001.0000.0000.0000.028 (2.79%)[2.59% 3.01%]4.36E-3 (0.44%)0.018
M≥6.70.0200.0000.0000.0000.0000.019 (1.91%)[1.75% 2.09%]3.04E-3 (0.30%)0.012
M≥6.80.0140.0000.0000.0000.0000.013 (1.32%)[1.18% 1.47%]2.68E-3 (0.27%)8.04E-3
M≥6.98.88E-30.0000.0000.0000.0008.32E-3 (0.83%)[0.72% 0.95%]2.40E-3 (0.24%)4.64E-3
M≥76.52E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.12E-3 (0.61%)[0.52% 0.72%]2.16E-3 (0.22%)3.20E-3
M≥7.14.40E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.16E-3 (0.42%)[0.34% 0.51%]1.84E-3 (0.18%)2.16E-3
M≥7.23.00E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.88E-3 (0.29%)[0.23% 0.36%]1.64E-3 (0.16%)1.24E-3
M≥7.32.24E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.16E-3 (0.22%)[0.16% 0.28%]1.36E-3 (0.14%)8.40E-4
M≥7.41.48E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.44E-3 (0.14%)[0.10% 0.20%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)5.20E-4
M≥7.51.20E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.16E-3 (0.12%)[0.08% 0.17%]1.12E-3 (0.11%)3.60E-4
M≥7.61.12E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.08E-3 (0.11%)[0.07% 0.16%]1.08E-3 (0.11%)3.60E-4
M≥7.79.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0009.20E-4 (0.09%)[0.06% 0.14%]9.20E-4 (0.09%)3.20E-4
M≥7.88.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0008.00E-4 (0.08%)[0.05% 0.13%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)2.80E-4
M≥7.94.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.08%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)1.60E-4
M≥82.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)1.20E-4
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Week Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 wk Probability1 wk Prob 95% Conf1 wk Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5516.638373.0001059.000453.000427.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)336.499
M≥2.6410.282293.000844.000360.000333.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)267.243
M≥2.7325.788230.000670.000286.000272.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)212.193
M≥2.8258.734180.000533.000228.000214.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)168.549
M≥2.9205.429141.000422.000181.000172.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)133.811
M≥3163.185109.000336.000144.000139.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)106.317
M≥3.1129.60485.000268.000115.000109.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)84.441
M≥3.2102.91265.000215.00091.00087.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)67.056
M≥3.381.74850.000171.00073.00070.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)53.274
M≥3.464.94838.000136.00058.00052.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)42.331
M≥3.551.58129.000109.00046.00042.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)33.615
M≥3.640.96422.00087.00036.00034.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)26.686
M≥3.732.52016.00070.00029.00025.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)21.188
M≥3.825.82712.00056.00023.00021.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)16.827
M≥3.920.5019.00045.00018.00017.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)13.356
M≥416.2856.00036.00014.00013.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)10.615
M≥4.112.9214.00030.00011.00011.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.97% 100.00%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)8.432
M≥4.210.2533.00024.0009.0007.0001.000 (99.96%)[99.92% 99.98%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)6.685
M≥4.38.1442.00020.0007.0006.0000.998 (99.79%)[99.72% 99.84%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)5.309
M≥4.46.4511.00016.0006.0005.0000.993 (99.34%)[99.23% 99.43%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)4.206
M≥4.55.1121.00013.0004.0003.0000.982 (98.16%)[97.98% 98.32%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)3.334
M≥4.64.0610.00011.0003.0003.0000.959 (95.86%)[95.60% 96.10%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)2.650
M≥4.73.2150.0009.0003.0002.0000.920 (92.03%)[91.68% 92.36%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)2.098
M≥4.82.5440.0008.0002.0001.0000.867 (86.73%)[86.30% 87.14%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)1.659
M≥4.92.0190.0007.0002.0001.0000.798 (79.81%)[79.30% 80.30%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)1.317
M≥51.6010.0006.0001.0001.0000.723 (72.28%)[71.72% 72.84%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)1.043
M≥5.11.2590.0005.0001.0000.0000.642 (64.21%)[63.61% 64.80%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)0.820
M≥5.20.9920.0004.0001.0000.0000.558 (55.78%)[55.16% 56.40%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)0.646
M≥5.30.7830.0004.0000.0000.0000.477 (47.72%)[47.10% 48.34%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)0.508
M≥5.40.6120.0003.0000.0000.0000.401 (40.08%)[39.48% 40.69%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)0.395
M≥5.50.4770.0003.0000.0000.0000.332 (33.24%)[32.66% 33.83%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)0.308
M≥5.60.3720.0002.0000.0000.0000.272 (27.24%)[26.69% 27.80%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)0.241
M≥5.70.2900.0002.0000.0000.0000.221 (22.09%)[21.58% 22.61%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)0.188
M≥5.80.2230.0002.0000.0000.0000.177 (17.66%)[17.19% 18.14%]9.92E-3 (0.99%)0.143
M≥5.90.1730.0001.0000.0000.0000.140 (13.96%)[13.53% 14.39%]9.88E-3 (0.99%)0.111
M≥60.1350.0001.0000.0000.0000.112 (11.21%)[10.82% 11.61%]9.88E-3 (0.99%)0.088
M≥6.10.1100.0001.0000.0000.0000.094 (9.36%)[9.00% 9.73%]9.76E-3 (0.98%)0.071
M≥6.20.0860.0001.0000.0000.0000.075 (7.49%)[7.17% 7.83%]9.16E-3 (0.92%)0.056
M≥6.30.0640.0001.0000.0000.0000.057 (5.73%)[5.45% 6.03%]8.28E-3 (0.83%)0.041
M≥6.40.0450.0001.0000.0000.0000.042 (4.16%)[3.92% 4.42%]5.36E-3 (0.54%)0.029
M≥6.50.0320.0001.0000.0000.0000.030 (2.96%)[2.75% 3.18%]3.16E-3 (0.32%)0.020
M≥6.60.0230.0000.0000.0000.0000.022 (2.17%)[2.00% 2.36%]3.04E-3 (0.30%)0.015
M≥6.70.0150.0000.0000.0000.0000.015 (1.46%)[1.32% 1.62%]2.12E-3 (0.21%)0.010
M≥6.80.0100.0000.0000.0000.0000.010 (1.01%)[0.89% 1.14%]1.84E-3 (0.18%)6.80E-3
M≥6.96.80E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.60E-3 (0.66%)[0.57% 0.77%]1.60E-3 (0.16%)4.08E-3
M≥74.96E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.84E-3 (0.48%)[0.40% 0.58%]1.40E-3 (0.14%)2.84E-3
M≥7.13.36E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.28E-3 (0.33%)[0.26% 0.41%]1.16E-3 (0.12%)1.92E-3
M≥7.22.16E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.12E-3 (0.21%)[0.16% 0.28%]9.60E-4 (0.10%)1.04E-3
M≥7.31.60E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.56E-3 (0.16%)[0.11% 0.22%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)6.80E-4
M≥7.49.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0009.60E-4 (0.10%)[0.06% 0.15%]7.20E-4 (0.07%)4.00E-4
M≥7.57.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0007.20E-4 (0.07%)[0.04% 0.12%]6.80E-4 (0.07%)2.80E-4
M≥7.66.40E-40.0000.0000.0000.0006.40E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.11%]6.40E-4 (0.06%)2.80E-4
M≥7.75.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.60E-4 (0.06%)[0.03% 0.10%]5.60E-4 (0.06%)2.40E-4
M≥7.85.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.20E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]5.20E-4 (0.05%)2.40E-4
M≥7.93.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)1.60E-4
M≥81.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)1.20E-4
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Day Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 d Probability1 d Prob 95% Conf1 d Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5350.501266.000627.000319.000310.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)258.851
M≥2.6278.366209.000503.000254.000242.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)205.592
M≥2.7221.020163.000399.000202.000196.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)163.253
M≥2.8175.519127.000318.000160.000153.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)129.654
M≥2.9139.32499.000252.000128.000123.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)102.925
M≥3110.68777.000201.000102.00099.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)81.788
M≥3.187.90959.000162.00081.00077.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)64.958
M≥3.269.81845.000128.00064.00059.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)51.607
M≥3.355.47635.000103.00051.00050.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)41.018
M≥3.444.08826.00083.00041.00039.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)32.596
M≥3.535.01120.00066.00032.00032.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)25.881
M≥3.627.80815.00053.00026.00023.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)20.551
M≥3.722.07211.00043.00020.00019.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)16.315
M≥3.817.5278.00035.00016.00015.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)12.957
M≥3.913.9096.00028.00013.00012.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)10.280
M≥411.0464.00023.00010.0009.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.97% 100.00%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)8.166
M≥4.18.7763.00019.0008.0007.0000.999 (99.95%)[99.91% 99.97%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)6.486
M≥4.26.9662.00016.0006.0005.0000.997 (99.69%)[99.61% 99.75%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)5.146
M≥4.35.5351.00013.0005.0004.0000.989 (98.91%)[98.77% 99.04%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)4.089
M≥4.44.3781.00011.0004.0003.0000.976 (97.57%)[97.37% 97.75%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)3.234
M≥4.53.4660.0009.0003.0002.0000.946 (94.63%)[94.34% 94.91%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)2.561
M≥4.62.7530.0008.0002.0002.0000.902 (90.16%)[89.78% 90.52%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)2.036
M≥4.72.1790.0007.0002.0001.0000.841 (84.13%)[83.67% 84.58%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)1.611
M≥4.81.7210.0006.0001.0001.0000.770 (76.97%)[76.44% 77.49%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)1.270
M≥4.91.3680.0005.0001.0001.0000.688 (68.78%)[68.20% 69.35%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)1.010
M≥51.0840.0004.0001.0000.0000.605 (60.49%)[59.88% 61.10%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)0.799
M≥5.10.8530.0004.0001.0000.0000.522 (52.22%)[51.60% 52.84%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)0.629
M≥5.20.6710.0003.0000.0000.0000.442 (44.16%)[43.55% 44.78%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)0.493
M≥5.30.5260.0003.0000.0000.0000.369 (36.93%)[36.33% 37.53%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)0.386
M≥5.40.4120.0002.0000.0000.0000.304 (30.41%)[29.84% 30.99%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)0.301
M≥5.50.3220.0002.0000.0000.0000.248 (24.80%)[24.26% 25.34%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)0.235
M≥5.60.2510.0002.0000.0000.0000.200 (20.00%)[19.50% 20.50%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)0.184
M≥5.70.1970.0002.0000.0000.0000.161 (16.13%)[15.68% 16.59%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)0.143
M≥5.80.1520.0001.0000.0000.0000.128 (12.82%)[12.41% 13.24%]6.64E-3 (0.66%)0.110
M≥5.90.1180.0001.0000.0000.0000.101 (10.09%)[9.72% 10.47%]6.60E-3 (0.66%)0.086
M≥60.0930.0001.0000.0000.0000.081 (8.10%)[7.76% 8.44%]6.60E-3 (0.66%)0.068
M≥6.10.0760.0001.0000.0000.0000.067 (6.74%)[6.43% 7.06%]6.52E-3 (0.65%)0.056
M≥6.20.0590.0001.0000.0000.0000.054 (5.35%)[5.08% 5.64%]6.28E-3 (0.63%)0.044
M≥6.30.0440.0001.0000.0000.0000.041 (4.06%)[3.82% 4.31%]5.64E-3 (0.56%)0.032
M≥6.40.0310.0001.0000.0000.0000.029 (2.94%)[2.74% 3.16%]3.48E-3 (0.35%)0.023
M≥6.50.0220.0000.0000.0000.0000.021 (2.10%)[1.93% 2.29%]1.96E-3 (0.20%)0.016
M≥6.60.0160.0000.0000.0000.0000.015 (1.54%)[1.40% 1.71%]1.92E-3 (0.19%)0.012
M≥6.70.0110.0000.0000.0000.0000.010 (1.04%)[0.92% 1.17%]1.36E-3 (0.14%)8.00E-3
M≥6.87.44E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.24E-3 (0.72%)[0.62% 0.84%]1.16E-3 (0.12%)5.28E-3
M≥6.94.72E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.60E-3 (0.46%)[0.38% 0.55%]1.00E-3 (0.10%)3.16E-3
M≥73.44E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.36E-3 (0.34%)[0.27% 0.42%]8.40E-4 (0.08%)2.36E-3
M≥7.12.36E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.28E-3 (0.23%)[0.17% 0.30%]6.80E-4 (0.07%)1.56E-3
M≥7.21.48E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.44E-3 (0.14%)[0.10% 0.20%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)8.40E-4
M≥7.31.08E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.04E-3 (0.10%)[0.07% 0.15%]4.40E-4 (0.04%)6.00E-4
M≥7.46.40E-40.0000.0000.0000.0006.40E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.11%]4.40E-4 (0.04%)3.60E-4
M≥7.54.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.08%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)2.40E-4
M≥7.64.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.08%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)2.40E-4
M≥7.73.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)2.00E-4
M≥7.83.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)2.00E-4
M≥7.92.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)1.60E-4
M≥81.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)1.20E-4
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Hour Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 hr Probability1 hr Prob 95% Conf1 hr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5126.19699.000168.000122.000120.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)113.814
M≥2.6100.20677.000135.00097.00098.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)90.366
M≥2.779.57759.000108.00077.00074.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)71.775
M≥2.863.20645.00088.00061.00059.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)57.011
M≥2.950.18634.00071.00049.00048.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)45.263
M≥339.87626.00057.00039.00037.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)35.968
M≥3.131.66720.00047.00031.00031.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)28.564
M≥3.225.14415.00038.00024.00024.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)22.686
M≥3.319.97811.00031.00019.00019.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)18.033
M≥3.415.8608.00026.00015.00014.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)14.317
M≥3.512.5906.00022.00012.00012.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.97% 100.00%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)11.360
M≥3.610.0074.00018.00010.0009.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.97% 100.00%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)9.027
M≥3.77.9353.00015.0008.0007.0000.999 (99.92%)[99.87% 99.95%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)7.161
M≥3.86.2912.00012.0006.0006.0000.997 (99.72%)[99.64% 99.78%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)5.681
M≥3.94.9951.00010.0005.0004.0000.990 (98.98%)[98.85% 99.10%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)4.507
M≥43.9520.0009.0004.0003.0000.974 (97.38%)[97.17% 97.57%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)3.567
M≥4.13.1430.0007.0003.0003.0000.945 (94.54%)[94.25% 94.82%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)2.836
M≥4.22.4910.0006.0002.0002.0000.901 (90.08%)[89.71% 90.45%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)2.247
M≥4.31.9760.0005.0002.0001.0000.841 (84.13%)[83.67% 84.58%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)1.785
M≥4.41.5650.0005.0001.0001.0000.770 (76.98%)[76.45% 77.50%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)1.415
M≥4.51.2450.0004.0001.0001.0000.688 (68.83%)[68.25% 69.40%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)1.123
M≥4.60.9910.0004.0001.0000.0000.605 (60.49%)[59.88% 61.10%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)0.895
M≥4.70.7850.0003.0001.0000.0000.523 (52.29%)[51.67% 52.91%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)0.709
M≥4.80.6190.0003.0000.0000.0000.443 (44.35%)[43.73% 44.97%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)0.558
M≥4.90.4950.0002.0000.0000.0000.372 (37.24%)[36.64% 37.85%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)0.447
M≥50.3930.0002.0000.0000.0000.311 (31.06%)[30.49% 31.64%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)0.354
M≥5.10.3080.0002.0000.0000.0000.254 (25.40%)[24.86% 25.94%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)0.278
M≥5.20.2420.0002.0000.0000.0000.206 (20.57%)[20.07% 21.08%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)0.217
M≥5.30.1910.0001.0000.0000.0000.166 (16.64%)[16.18% 17.10%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)0.172
M≥5.40.1500.0001.0000.0000.0000.134 (13.37%)[12.95% 13.80%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)0.135
M≥5.50.1180.0001.0000.0000.0000.107 (10.74%)[10.36% 11.13%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)0.106
M≥5.60.0930.0001.0000.0000.0000.086 (8.56%)[8.22% 8.92%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)0.084
M≥5.70.0730.0001.0000.0000.0000.067 (6.74%)[6.43% 7.06%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)0.065
M≥5.80.0560.0001.0000.0000.0000.052 (5.22%)[4.95% 5.50%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)0.050
M≥5.90.0430.0001.0000.0000.0000.041 (4.06%)[3.82% 4.31%]2.28E-3 (0.23%)0.039
M≥60.0340.0001.0000.0000.0000.032 (3.22%)[3.01% 3.45%]2.28E-3 (0.23%)0.031
M≥6.10.0280.0001.0000.0000.0000.026 (2.63%)[2.43% 2.84%]2.24E-3 (0.22%)0.025
M≥6.20.0220.0000.0000.0000.0000.021 (2.12%)[1.95% 2.31%]2.16E-3 (0.22%)0.020
M≥6.30.0160.0000.0000.0000.0000.016 (1.57%)[1.42% 1.74%]1.92E-3 (0.19%)0.014
M≥6.40.0120.0000.0000.0000.0000.011 (1.12%)[0.99% 1.26%]1.32E-3 (0.13%)0.010
M≥6.58.24E-30.0000.0000.0000.0008.00E-3 (0.80%)[0.70% 0.92%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)7.20E-3
M≥6.65.88E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.80E-3 (0.58%)[0.49% 0.68%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)5.08E-3
M≥6.73.88E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.84E-3 (0.38%)[0.31% 0.47%]4.80E-4 (0.05%)3.36E-3
M≥6.82.60E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.56E-3 (0.26%)[0.20% 0.33%]4.40E-4 (0.04%)2.16E-3
M≥6.91.68E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.64E-3 (0.16%)[0.12% 0.22%]3.60E-4 (0.04%)1.24E-3
M≥71.36E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.32E-3 (0.13%)[0.09% 0.19%]3.60E-4 (0.04%)1.00E-3
M≥7.18.80E-40.0000.0000.0000.0008.40E-4 (0.08%)[0.05% 0.13%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)5.60E-4
M≥7.25.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.20E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]2.40E-4 (0.02%)2.80E-4
M≥7.35.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.80E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]2.40E-4 (0.02%)2.80E-4
M≥7.44.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.08%]2.40E-4 (0.02%)2.00E-4
M≥7.52.40E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.06%]2.40E-4 (0.02%)1.60E-4
M≥7.62.40E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.06%]2.40E-4 (0.02%)1.60E-4
M≥7.72.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)1.60E-4
M≥7.82.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)1.60E-4
M≥7.91.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)1.20E-4
M≥88.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0008.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)8.00E-5
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Hazard Change Over Time

(top)

These plots show how the probability of ruptures of various magnitudes within 100km of any scenario rupture changes over time

M≥5.0 Hazard Change Over Time

(top)

Hazard Change

Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour0.308 [0.303 - 0.314]0.3088.81E-53502.758.71E-5
1 Day0.603 [0.597 - 0.609]0.6022.11E-3285.432.09E-3
1 Week0.724 [0.718 - 0.729]0.7200.01549.280.015
1 Month0.794 [0.789 - 0.798]0.7800.06112.920.061
1 Year0.933 [0.931 - 0.935]0.8540.5381.730.534
10 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **1.0001 *1.000
30 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **1.0001 *1.000
100 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **1.0001 *1.000

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 1 year are included

M≥6.0 Hazard Change Over Time

(top)

Hazard Change

Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour0.032 [0.030 - 0.034]0.0321.40E-52273.041.30E-5
1 Day0.080 [0.077 - 0.084]0.0803.36E-4239.33.12E-4
1 Week0.113 [0.109 - 0.117]0.1112.35E-347.992.18E-3
1 Month0.144 [0.140 - 0.148]0.1350.01014.349.32E-3
1 Year0.270 [0.266 - 0.274]0.1750.1162.340.108
10 Years0.754 [0.752 - 0.755] **0.7021.07 *0.680
30 Years0.975 [0.975 - 0.975] **0.9701.01 *0.967
100 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **1.0001 *1.000

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 1 year are included

M≥7.0 Hazard Change Over Time

(top)

Hazard Change

Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour1.32E-3 [9.26E-4 - 1.88E-3]1.32E-32.64E-6501.12.41E-6
1 Day3.38E-3 [2.72E-3 - 4.20E-3]3.32E-36.33E-553.415.78E-5
1 Week5.08E-3 [4.29E-3 - 6.02E-3]4.64E-34.43E-411.464.05E-4
1 Month7.73E-3 [6.84E-3 - 8.77E-3]5.84E-31.90E-34.071.73E-3
1 Year0.031 [0.030 - 0.033]8.76E-30.0231.370.021
10 Years0.214 [0.213 - 0.215] **0.2071.03 *0.190
30 Years0.503 [0.502 - 0.504] **0.4991.01 *0.469
100 Years0.872 [0.872 - 0.872] **0.8711 *0.879

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 1 year are included

M≥8.0 Hazard Change Over Time

(top)

Hazard Change

Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour8.03E-5 [1.42E-5 - 3.23E-4]8.00E-53.28E-7245.052.77E-7
1 Day1.28E-4 [3.89E-5 - 3.90E-4]1.20E-47.87E-616.256.65E-6
1 Week2.15E-4 [1.06E-4 - 4.95E-4]1.60E-45.51E-53.914.66E-5
1 Month4.36E-4 [3.10E-4 - 7.32E-4]2.00E-42.36E-41.852.00E-4
1 Year3.23E-3 [3.04E-3 - 3.58E-3]3.60E-42.87E-31.132.43E-3
10 Years0.030 [0.030 - 0.030] **0.0291.01 *0.024
30 Years0.092 [0.092 - 0.093] **0.0921 *0.070
100 Years0.280 [0.280 - 0.280] **0.2801 *0.216

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 1 year are included

Trigger Rupture Fault Map

(top)

Map

Fault Distances To Triggers

(top)

No fault sections within 20.0 km of any trigger rupture

Individual Simulated Catalog Maps

(top)

These are map plots of individual catalogs from the simulations, selected as the closest catalog to each of the given percentiles in terms of total number of events.

Durationp0.0 %-ilep25.0 %-ilep50.0 %-ilep75.0 %-ilep90.0 %-ilep95.0 %-ilep97.5 %-ilep98.0 %-ilep99.0 %-ilep99.996 %-ile
1 WeekMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap
1 MonthMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap
1 YearMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap

Section Participation

(top)

Section Participation Plots

(top)

Min Mag1 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)1 yr Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 10 of 113 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 1 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.017764.32E-3 (0.43%)[0.36% 0.52%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)[0.55% 0.75%]9.00E-3 (0.90%)[0.79% 1.03%]0.014 (1.44%)[1.30% 1.60%]0.00448
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.002966.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.03% 0.10%]9.60E-4 (0.10%)[0.06% 0.15%]1.56E-3 (0.16%)[0.11% 0.22%]2.76E-3 (0.28%)[0.22% 0.35%]8.4E-4
Lenwood-Lockhart-Old Woman Springs0.001646.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.03% 0.10%]7.60E-4 (0.08%)[0.05% 0.12%]1.04E-3 (0.10%)[0.07% 0.15%]1.52E-3 (0.15%)[0.11% 0.21%]5.2E-4
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.001483.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]5.60E-4 (0.06%)[0.03% 0.10%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)[0.06% 0.14%]1.48E-3 (0.15%)[0.11% 0.21%]4.4E-4
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)0.001323.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]4.80E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]7.20E-4 (0.07%)[0.04% 0.12%]1.24E-3 (0.12%)[0.09% 0.18%]4.4E-4
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.001283.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]5.60E-4 (0.06%)[0.03% 0.10%]7.20E-4 (0.07%)[0.04% 0.12%]1.24E-3 (0.12%)[0.09% 0.18%]3.6E-4
Helendale-So Lockhart9.6E-43.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]4.80E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]6.40E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.11%]9.60E-4 (0.10%)[0.06% 0.15%]4.0E-4
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev9.6E-42.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.06%]4.80E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]4.80E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]9.60E-4 (0.10%)[0.06% 0.15%]3.6E-4
Gravel Hills-Harper Lk9.2E-42.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.06%]5.20E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]5.20E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)[0.06% 0.14%]4.0E-4
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)8.8E-42.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.06%]3.60E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.07%]5.60E-4 (0.06%)[0.03% 0.10%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)[0.06% 0.14%]3.6E-4

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 10 of 91 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 1 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.004641.08E-3 (0.11%)[0.07% 0.16%]1.80E-3 (0.18%)[0.13% 0.24%]2.84E-3 (0.28%)[0.22% 0.36%]4.52E-3 (0.45%)[0.37% 0.55%]0.0014
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.002845.60E-4 (0.06%)[0.03% 0.10%]9.20E-4 (0.09%)[0.06% 0.14%]1.52E-3 (0.15%)[0.11% 0.21%]2.68E-3 (0.27%)[0.21% 0.34%]8.0E-4
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.001483.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]5.60E-4 (0.06%)[0.03% 0.10%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)[0.06% 0.14%]1.48E-3 (0.15%)[0.11% 0.21%]4.4E-4
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.001283.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]5.60E-4 (0.06%)[0.03% 0.10%]7.20E-4 (0.07%)[0.04% 0.12%]1.24E-3 (0.12%)[0.09% 0.18%]3.6E-4
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)0.00123.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]4.80E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]7.20E-4 (0.07%)[0.04% 0.12%]1.16E-3 (0.12%)[0.08% 0.17%]4.4E-4
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev9.6E-42.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.06%]4.80E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]4.80E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]9.60E-4 (0.10%)[0.06% 0.15%]3.6E-4
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)8.8E-42.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.06%]3.60E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.07%]5.60E-4 (0.06%)[0.03% 0.10%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)[0.06% 0.14%]3.6E-4
San Andreas (Cholame) rev8.4E-42.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.06%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.08%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.08%]8.40E-4 (0.08%)[0.05% 0.13%]3.6E-4
San Andreas (Coachella) rev7.6E-42.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.06%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]5.20E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]7.20E-4 (0.07%)[0.04% 0.12%]2.8E-4
San Andreas (Parkfield)6.8E-42.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]6.80E-4 (0.07%)[0.04% 0.11%]2.4E-4

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 10 of 71 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 1 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.002525.20E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)[0.06% 0.14%]1.48E-3 (0.15%)[0.11% 0.21%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)[0.19% 0.32%]7.6E-4
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.002084.40E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.08%]6.80E-4 (0.07%)[0.04% 0.11%]1.16E-3 (0.12%)[0.08% 0.17%]2.04E-3 (0.20%)[0.15% 0.27%]6.8E-4
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.001483.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]5.60E-4 (0.06%)[0.03% 0.10%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)[0.06% 0.14%]1.48E-3 (0.15%)[0.11% 0.21%]4.4E-4
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.001243.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]5.60E-4 (0.06%)[0.03% 0.10%]7.20E-4 (0.07%)[0.04% 0.12%]1.24E-3 (0.12%)[0.09% 0.18%]3.6E-4
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)0.001083.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]4.80E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]7.20E-4 (0.07%)[0.04% 0.12%]1.08E-3 (0.11%)[0.07% 0.16%]4.4E-4
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev9.6E-42.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.06%]4.80E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]4.80E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]9.60E-4 (0.10%)[0.06% 0.15%]3.6E-4
San Andreas (Cholame) rev8.4E-42.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.06%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.08%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.08%]8.40E-4 (0.08%)[0.05% 0.13%]3.6E-4
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)8.0E-42.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.06%]3.60E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.07%]5.20E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)[0.05% 0.13%]3.6E-4
San Andreas (Coachella) rev7.2E-42.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.06%]4.80E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]6.80E-4 (0.07%)[0.04% 0.11%]2.8E-4
San Andreas (Parkfield)6.8E-42.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]6.80E-4 (0.07%)[0.04% 0.11%]2.4E-4

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 10 of 51 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 1 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.001684.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.08%]6.40E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.11%]1.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.07% 0.15%]1.64E-3 (0.16%)[0.12% 0.22%]4.8E-4
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.001483.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]4.80E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]8.40E-4 (0.08%)[0.05% 0.13%]1.44E-3 (0.14%)[0.10% 0.20%]4.4E-4
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.001443.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]5.60E-4 (0.06%)[0.03% 0.10%]8.40E-4 (0.08%)[0.05% 0.13%]1.44E-3 (0.14%)[0.10% 0.20%]4.0E-4
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.001243.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]5.60E-4 (0.06%)[0.03% 0.10%]7.20E-4 (0.07%)[0.04% 0.12%]1.24E-3 (0.12%)[0.09% 0.18%]3.6E-4
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev9.6E-42.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.06%]4.80E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]4.80E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]9.60E-4 (0.10%)[0.06% 0.15%]3.6E-4
San Andreas (Cholame) rev8.4E-42.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.06%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.08%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.08%]8.40E-4 (0.08%)[0.05% 0.13%]3.6E-4
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)8.4E-42.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.06%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.08%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.03% 0.10%]8.40E-4 (0.08%)[0.05% 0.13%]2.8E-4
San Andreas (Coachella) rev6.8E-42.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]2.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.06%]4.40E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.08%]6.40E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.11%]2.8E-4
San Andreas (Parkfield)6.8E-42.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]6.80E-4 (0.07%)[0.04% 0.11%]2.4E-4
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)6.4E-42.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.06%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]4.80E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]6.40E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.11%]2.8E-4

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 10 of 25 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 1 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (Mojave N)3.6E-41.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]3.60E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.07%]2.4E-4
San Andreas (Mojave S)3.6E-41.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]3.60E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.07%]2.4E-4
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)3.6E-41.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]3.60E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.07%]2.4E-4
San Andreas (Big Bend)3.2E-41.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]2.4E-4
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev3.2E-41.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]2.4E-4
San Andreas (Cholame) rev3.2E-41.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]2.4E-4
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 12.0E-48.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]1.6E-4
San Andreas (Coachella) rev2.0E-48.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]1.6E-4
San Andreas (Parkfield)2.0E-48.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]1.6E-4
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)2.0E-48.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]1.6E-4

Fault Magnitude-Probability Distributions

(top)

The first 5 sections (sorted by trigger rate) are plotted below. All fault MPDs are available here

1 Week1 Month1 Year
MPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPD

Gridded Nucleation

(top)

Min MagTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥2.5Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

(top)

{
  "numSimulations": 25000,
  "duration": 1.0,
  "startYear": 2020,
  "includeSpontaneous": false,
  "randomSeed": 1583281181544,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "M6.5AwaySAF",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2020_03_03-M6p5AwaySAF",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "triggerRuptures": [
    {
      "mag": 6.5,
      "latitude": 34.695,
      "longitude": -117.7,
      "depth": 5.0
    }
  ],
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.14,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2020 --num-simulations 25000 --duration-years 1 --magnitude 6.5 --latitude 34.695 --depth 5 --longitude -117.7 --name M6.5AwaySAF --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec",
  "configTime": 1583281181544
}