M6AwaySAF Results

M6AwaySAF
Num Simulations25000
Start Time2020/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1577836800000
Duration1 Year
Includes Spontaneous?false
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Config Generated Withu3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2020 --num-simulations 25000 --duration-years 1 --magnitude 6 --latitude 34.695 --depth 5 --longitude -117.7 --name M6AwaySAF --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec

Table Of Contents

Probabilities Summary Table

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Magnitude1 Hour Prob1 Day Prob1 Week Prob1 Month Prob1 Year Prob
M≥31.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf[99.97% 100.00%][99.98% 100.00%][99.98% 100.00%][99.98% 100.00%][99.98% 100.00%]
M≥3.50.974 (97.40%)1.000 (99.98%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf[97.20% 97.60%][99.95% 99.99%][99.98% 100.00%][99.98% 100.00%][99.98% 100.00%]
M≥40.691 (69.10%)0.939 (93.92%)0.976 (97.62%)0.988 (98.82%)0.996 (99.56%)
95% Conf[68.53% 69.68%][93.62% 94.22%][97.43% 97.81%][98.68% 98.95%][99.46% 99.63%]
M≥4.50.313 (31.31%)0.600 (59.95%)0.708 (70.79%)0.770 (77.03%)0.842 (84.22%)
95% Conf[30.73% 31.89%][59.34% 60.56%][70.22% 71.35%][76.50% 77.55%][83.76% 84.66%]
M≥50.112 (11.21%)0.252 (25.23%)0.330 (32.95%)0.382 (38.18%)0.459 (45.94%)
95% Conf[10.82% 11.61%][24.70% 25.78%][32.37% 33.54%][37.57% 38.78%][45.32% 46.56%]
M≥5.50.036 (3.62%)0.086 (8.57%)0.117 (11.71%)0.141 (14.09%)0.179 (17.92%)
95% Conf[3.40% 3.86%][8.23% 8.93%][11.32% 12.12%][13.66% 14.53%][17.45% 18.40%]
M≥60.011 (1.10%)0.026 (2.62%)0.037 (3.69%)0.045 (4.54%)0.060 (5.98%)
95% Conf[0.97% 1.23%][2.43% 2.83%][3.46% 3.93%][4.29% 4.81%][5.69% 6.28%]
M≥6.52.84E-3 (0.28%)6.72E-3 (0.67%)9.64E-3 (0.96%)0.012 (1.16%)0.016 (1.62%)
95% Conf[0.22% 0.36%][0.58% 0.78%][0.85% 1.10%][1.03% 1.30%][1.47% 1.78%]
M≥72.80E-4 (0.03%)1.04E-3 (0.10%)1.76E-3 (0.18%)2.20E-3 (0.22%)3.44E-3 (0.34%)
95% Conf[0.01% 0.06%][0.07% 0.15%][0.13% 0.24%][0.17% 0.29%][0.28% 0.43%]
M≥7.58.00E-5 (0.01%)2.40E-4 (0.02%)3.60E-4 (0.04%)4.80E-4 (0.05%)7.60E-4 (0.08%)
95% Conf[0.00% 0.03%][0.01% 0.06%][0.02% 0.07%][0.03% 0.09%][0.05% 0.12%]

Magnitude Number Distribution

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1 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 yr Probability1 yr Prob 95% Conf1 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5297.055162.000868.000219.000199.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)147.412
M≥2.6235.890127.000695.000174.000158.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)117.088
M≥2.7187.31199.000546.000139.000128.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)92.966
M≥2.8148.73976.000437.000110.000106.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)73.796
M≥2.9118.16259.000349.00088.00080.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)58.624
M≥393.84545.000277.00070.00064.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)46.559
M≥3.174.53234.000220.00056.00048.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)36.992
M≥3.259.20426.000175.00044.00039.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)29.396
M≥3.347.00420.000139.00035.00030.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)23.335
M≥3.437.33215.000110.00028.00025.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)18.525
M≥3.529.65111.00088.00022.00019.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)14.719
M≥3.623.5658.00071.00018.00016.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.97% 100.00%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)11.711
M≥3.718.7086.00057.00014.00013.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.96% 100.00%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)9.302
M≥3.814.8564.00045.00011.00010.0001.000 (99.98%)[99.94% 99.99%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)7.387
M≥3.911.7993.00036.0009.0007.0000.999 (99.88%)[99.82% 99.91%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)5.866
M≥49.3762.00030.0007.0006.0000.996 (99.56%)[99.46% 99.63%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)4.660
M≥4.17.4561.00024.0005.0004.0000.988 (98.82%)[98.67% 98.94%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)3.709
M≥4.25.9180.00020.0004.0003.0000.972 (97.23%)[97.02% 97.43%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)2.943
M≥4.34.6900.00016.0003.0002.0000.943 (94.26%)[93.96% 94.54%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)2.331
M≥4.43.7120.00013.0003.0002.0000.900 (90.02%)[89.64% 90.39%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)1.845
M≥4.52.9360.00011.0002.0001.0000.842 (84.22%)[83.76% 84.66%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)1.462
M≥4.62.3220.0009.0001.0001.0000.773 (77.29%)[76.76% 77.81%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)1.153
M≥4.71.8390.0008.0001.0000.0000.695 (69.55%)[68.97% 70.12%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)0.911
M≥4.81.4600.0006.0001.0000.0000.615 (61.51%)[60.91% 62.12%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)0.723
M≥4.91.1500.0005.0001.0000.0000.536 (53.65%)[53.03% 54.27%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)0.571
M≥50.9100.0005.0000.0000.0000.459 (45.94%)[45.32% 46.56%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)0.450
M≥5.10.7210.0004.0000.0000.0000.389 (38.94%)[38.33% 39.54%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)0.358
M≥5.20.5690.0003.0000.0000.0000.326 (32.60%)[32.02% 33.19%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)0.281
M≥5.30.4460.0003.0000.0000.0000.268 (26.82%)[26.27% 27.37%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)0.221
M≥5.40.3490.0002.0000.0000.0000.220 (21.97%)[21.46% 22.49%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)0.173
M≥5.50.2720.0002.0000.0000.0000.179 (17.92%)[17.45% 18.40%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)0.133
M≥5.60.2120.0002.0000.0000.0000.145 (14.50%)[14.07% 14.94%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)0.103
M≥5.70.1650.0002.0000.0000.0000.117 (11.75%)[11.35% 12.16%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)0.080
M≥5.80.1270.0001.0000.0000.0000.094 (9.35%)[9.00% 9.72%]6.40E-3 (0.64%)0.062
M≥5.90.0980.0001.0000.0000.0000.074 (7.39%)[7.07% 7.72%]6.36E-3 (0.64%)0.048
M≥60.0770.0001.0000.0000.0000.060 (5.98%)[5.69% 6.28%]6.36E-3 (0.64%)0.037
M≥6.10.0610.0001.0000.0000.0000.048 (4.85%)[4.59% 5.12%]6.28E-3 (0.63%)0.029
M≥6.20.0490.0001.0000.0000.0000.039 (3.90%)[3.67% 4.15%]6.16E-3 (0.62%)0.023
M≥6.30.0380.0001.0000.0000.0000.031 (3.12%)[2.91% 3.35%]5.68E-3 (0.57%)0.018
M≥6.40.0270.0000.0000.0000.0000.023 (2.30%)[2.12% 2.50%]4.16E-3 (0.42%)0.013
M≥6.50.0190.0000.0000.0000.0000.016 (1.62%)[1.47% 1.78%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)9.04E-3
M≥6.60.0130.0000.0000.0000.0000.012 (1.16%)[1.03% 1.30%]2.20E-3 (0.22%)6.40E-3
M≥6.79.24E-30.0000.0000.0000.0008.44E-3 (0.84%)[0.74% 0.97%]1.84E-3 (0.18%)4.48E-3
M≥6.87.16E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.64E-3 (0.66%)[0.57% 0.77%]1.64E-3 (0.16%)3.44E-3
M≥6.95.28E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.92E-3 (0.49%)[0.41% 0.59%]1.56E-3 (0.16%)2.32E-3
M≥73.68E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.44E-3 (0.34%)[0.28% 0.43%]1.40E-3 (0.14%)1.64E-3
M≥7.12.84E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.76E-3 (0.28%)[0.22% 0.35%]1.28E-3 (0.13%)1.16E-3
M≥7.21.80E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.76E-3 (0.18%)[0.13% 0.24%]1.04E-3 (0.10%)7.60E-4
M≥7.31.16E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.16E-3 (0.12%)[0.08% 0.17%]9.20E-4 (0.09%)4.00E-4
M≥7.49.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0009.20E-4 (0.09%)[0.06% 0.14%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)2.80E-4
M≥7.57.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0007.60E-4 (0.08%)[0.05% 0.12%]6.80E-4 (0.07%)2.80E-4
M≥7.66.80E-40.0000.0000.0000.0006.80E-4 (0.07%)[0.04% 0.11%]6.40E-4 (0.06%)2.00E-4
M≥7.75.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.60E-4 (0.06%)[0.03% 0.10%]5.60E-4 (0.06%)1.20E-4
M≥7.85.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.20E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]5.20E-4 (0.05%)1.20E-4
M≥7.92.40E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.06%]2.40E-4 (0.02%)4.00E-5
M≥80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Month Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 mo Probability1 mo Prob 95% Conf1 mo Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5208.518126.000518.000168.000153.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)122.933
M≥2.6165.57798.000412.000133.000121.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)97.632
M≥2.7131.47976.000328.000106.000102.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)77.534
M≥2.8104.43558.000262.00085.00077.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)61.561
M≥2.982.98645.000210.00067.00061.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)48.904
M≥365.90634.000167.00054.00053.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)38.842
M≥3.152.34626.000133.00043.00039.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)30.859
M≥3.241.58919.000107.00034.00032.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)24.523
M≥3.333.00714.00086.00027.00026.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)19.456
M≥3.426.21311.00069.00021.00020.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)15.442
M≥3.520.8228.00055.00017.00014.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)12.270
M≥3.616.5466.00044.00013.00011.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.97% 100.00%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)9.761
M≥3.713.1364.00035.00011.0009.0001.000 (99.97%)[99.94% 99.99%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)7.754
M≥3.810.4313.00029.0008.0007.0000.999 (99.86%)[99.80% 99.90%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)6.154
M≥3.98.2792.00023.0007.0006.0000.996 (99.57%)[99.48% 99.65%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)4.886
M≥46.5781.00019.0005.0004.0000.988 (98.82%)[98.68% 98.95%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)3.880
M≥4.15.2290.00015.0004.0003.0000.972 (97.19%)[96.97% 97.39%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)3.085
M≥4.24.1500.00013.0003.0002.0000.943 (94.32%)[94.03% 94.61%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)2.448
M≥4.33.2860.00011.0002.0002.0000.899 (89.88%)[89.50% 90.25%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)1.937
M≥4.42.6040.0009.0002.0001.0000.840 (84.04%)[83.58% 84.49%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)1.532
M≥4.52.0590.0007.0001.0001.0000.770 (77.03%)[76.50% 77.55%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)1.215
M≥4.61.6270.0006.0001.0000.0000.691 (69.11%)[68.53% 69.68%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)0.958
M≥4.71.2900.0005.0001.0000.0000.609 (60.93%)[60.32% 61.54%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)0.756
M≥4.81.0230.0005.0001.0000.0000.530 (52.97%)[52.35% 53.59%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)0.600
M≥4.90.8090.0004.0000.0000.0000.454 (45.36%)[44.74% 45.98%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)0.475
M≥50.6390.0003.0000.0000.0000.382 (38.18%)[37.57% 38.78%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)0.374
M≥5.10.5050.0003.0000.0000.0000.318 (31.84%)[31.27% 32.43%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)0.297
M≥5.20.3990.0002.0000.0000.0000.264 (26.37%)[25.82% 26.92%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)0.233
M≥5.30.3130.0002.0000.0000.0000.215 (21.51%)[21.01% 22.03%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)0.184
M≥5.40.2450.0002.0000.0000.0000.175 (17.45%)[16.98% 17.93%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)0.143
M≥5.50.1910.0002.0000.0000.0000.141 (14.09%)[13.66% 14.53%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)0.110
M≥5.60.1490.0001.0000.0000.0000.113 (11.28%)[10.90% 11.68%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)0.085
M≥5.70.1160.0001.0000.0000.0000.091 (9.08%)[8.72% 9.44%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)0.067
M≥5.80.0890.0001.0000.0000.0000.071 (7.14%)[6.83% 7.47%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)0.051
M≥5.90.0690.0001.0000.0000.0000.056 (5.62%)[5.34% 5.92%]4.04E-3 (0.40%)0.040
M≥60.0550.0001.0000.0000.0000.045 (4.54%)[4.29% 4.81%]4.04E-3 (0.40%)0.031
M≥6.10.0440.0001.0000.0000.0000.037 (3.68%)[3.45% 3.92%]3.96E-3 (0.40%)0.024
M≥6.20.0340.0001.0000.0000.0000.029 (2.89%)[2.69% 3.11%]3.84E-3 (0.38%)0.019
M≥6.30.0260.0000.0000.0000.0000.023 (2.27%)[2.09% 2.47%]3.64E-3 (0.36%)0.015
M≥6.40.0190.0000.0000.0000.0000.017 (1.67%)[1.52% 1.84%]2.64E-3 (0.26%)0.011
M≥6.50.0130.0000.0000.0000.0000.012 (1.16%)[1.03% 1.30%]1.36E-3 (0.14%)7.68E-3
M≥6.68.72E-30.0000.0000.0000.0008.08E-3 (0.81%)[0.70% 0.93%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)5.40E-3
M≥6.76.28E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.88E-3 (0.59%)[0.50% 0.69%]1.04E-3 (0.10%)3.84E-3
M≥6.84.80E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.60E-3 (0.46%)[0.38% 0.55%]9.20E-4 (0.09%)2.84E-3
M≥6.93.32E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.20E-3 (0.32%)[0.26% 0.40%]8.40E-4 (0.08%)1.92E-3
M≥72.32E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.20E-3 (0.22%)[0.17% 0.29%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)1.32E-3
M≥7.11.68E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.64E-3 (0.16%)[0.12% 0.22%]7.60E-4 (0.08%)8.80E-4
M≥7.21.12E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.12E-3 (0.11%)[0.08% 0.16%]6.40E-4 (0.06%)6.40E-4
M≥7.37.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0007.60E-4 (0.08%)[0.05% 0.12%]5.60E-4 (0.06%)4.00E-4
M≥7.46.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0006.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.03% 0.10%]4.80E-4 (0.05%)2.80E-4
M≥7.54.80E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.80E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)2.80E-4
M≥7.64.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.08%]3.60E-4 (0.04%)2.00E-4
M≥7.72.80E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.06%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)1.20E-4
M≥7.82.80E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.06%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)1.20E-4
M≥7.98.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0008.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)4.00E-5
M≥80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Week Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 wk Probability1 wk Prob 95% Conf1 wk Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5164.455104.000372.000138.000134.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)106.551
M≥2.6130.60981.000293.000110.000104.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)84.631
M≥2.7103.70162.000235.00087.00083.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)67.202
M≥2.882.34348.000188.00069.00067.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)53.337
M≥2.965.41236.000149.00055.00050.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)42.367
M≥351.95528.000119.00044.00043.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)33.651
M≥3.141.27121.00095.00035.00033.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)26.727
M≥3.232.78816.00076.00028.00025.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)21.241
M≥3.326.02012.00061.00022.00020.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)16.847
M≥3.420.6648.00049.00017.00016.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)13.376
M≥3.516.4076.00040.00014.00013.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)10.624
M≥3.613.0364.00032.00011.00010.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.96% 100.00%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)8.448
M≥3.710.3513.00026.0009.0008.0000.999 (99.92%)[99.87% 99.95%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)6.710
M≥3.88.2162.00021.0007.0006.0000.997 (99.66%)[99.57% 99.72%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)5.323
M≥3.96.5231.00017.0005.0005.0000.990 (99.03%)[98.90% 99.15%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)4.226
M≥45.1881.00014.0004.0003.0000.976 (97.62%)[97.43% 97.81%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)3.358
M≥4.14.1220.00012.0003.0003.0000.950 (95.00%)[94.72% 95.27%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)2.670
M≥4.23.2710.00010.0003.0002.0000.911 (91.06%)[90.69% 91.41%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)2.120
M≥4.32.5870.0008.0002.0001.0000.854 (85.37%)[84.92% 85.80%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)1.677
M≥4.42.0490.0007.0002.0001.0000.785 (78.53%)[78.01% 79.03%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)1.328
M≥4.51.6220.0006.0001.0001.0000.708 (70.79%)[70.22% 71.35%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)1.052
M≥4.61.2820.0005.0001.0000.0000.625 (62.54%)[61.94% 63.14%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)0.829
M≥4.71.0150.0004.0001.0000.0000.543 (54.32%)[53.70% 54.94%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)0.654
M≥4.80.8050.0004.0000.0000.0000.466 (46.56%)[45.94% 47.18%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)0.520
M≥4.90.6370.0003.0000.0000.0000.395 (39.53%)[38.93% 40.14%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)0.412
M≥50.5020.0003.0000.0000.0000.330 (32.95%)[32.37% 33.54%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)0.323
M≥5.10.3960.0002.0000.0000.0000.272 (27.24%)[26.69% 27.79%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)0.256
M≥5.20.3140.0002.0000.0000.0000.223 (22.35%)[21.83% 22.87%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)0.202
M≥5.30.2460.0002.0000.0000.0000.181 (18.08%)[17.60% 18.56%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)0.158
M≥5.40.1930.0002.0000.0000.0000.146 (14.64%)[14.20% 15.08%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)0.124
M≥5.50.1490.0001.0000.0000.0000.117 (11.71%)[11.32% 12.12%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)0.096
M≥5.60.1170.0001.0000.0000.0000.094 (9.39%)[9.03% 9.76%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)0.074
M≥5.70.0920.0001.0000.0000.0000.076 (7.55%)[7.23% 7.89%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)0.058
M≥5.80.0700.0001.0000.0000.0000.059 (5.87%)[5.59% 6.17%]3.56E-3 (0.36%)0.045
M≥5.90.0540.0001.0000.0000.0000.046 (4.60%)[4.34% 4.86%]3.52E-3 (0.35%)0.035
M≥60.0430.0001.0000.0000.0000.037 (3.69%)[3.46% 3.93%]3.52E-3 (0.35%)0.027
M≥6.10.0340.0001.0000.0000.0000.030 (2.98%)[2.77% 3.20%]3.44E-3 (0.34%)0.021
M≥6.20.0270.0000.0000.0000.0000.023 (2.35%)[2.17% 2.55%]3.36E-3 (0.34%)0.016
M≥6.30.0210.0000.0000.0000.0000.019 (1.86%)[1.70% 2.04%]3.20E-3 (0.32%)0.013
M≥6.40.0150.0000.0000.0000.0000.014 (1.38%)[1.24% 1.53%]2.24E-3 (0.22%)9.56E-3
M≥6.50.0110.0000.0000.0000.0009.64E-3 (0.96%)[0.85% 1.10%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)6.88E-3
M≥6.66.96E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.60E-3 (0.66%)[0.57% 0.77%]1.04E-3 (0.10%)4.72E-3
M≥6.75.24E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.00E-3 (0.50%)[0.42% 0.60%]9.20E-4 (0.09%)3.44E-3
M≥6.84.04E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.92E-3 (0.39%)[0.32% 0.48%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)2.60E-3
M≥6.92.68E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.60E-3 (0.26%)[0.20% 0.33%]7.20E-4 (0.07%)1.72E-3
M≥71.84E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.76E-3 (0.18%)[0.13% 0.24%]6.80E-4 (0.07%)1.16E-3
M≥7.11.40E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.36E-3 (0.14%)[0.10% 0.19%]6.40E-4 (0.06%)8.00E-4
M≥7.29.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0009.60E-4 (0.10%)[0.06% 0.15%]5.20E-4 (0.05%)6.00E-4
M≥7.36.40E-40.0000.0000.0000.0006.40E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.11%]4.40E-4 (0.04%)3.60E-4
M≥7.44.80E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.80E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]3.60E-4 (0.04%)2.40E-4
M≥7.53.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.60E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.07%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)2.40E-4
M≥7.62.80E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.06%]2.40E-4 (0.02%)1.60E-4
M≥7.71.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)8.00E-5
M≥7.81.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)8.00E-5
M≥7.98.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0008.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)4.00E-5
M≥80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Day Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 d Probability1 d Prob 95% Conf1 d Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5110.96874.000209.00099.00094.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)81.931
M≥2.688.12857.000168.00078.00075.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)65.072
M≥2.769.98144.000133.00062.00060.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)51.675
M≥2.855.56633.000106.00050.00049.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)41.021
M≥2.944.13925.00085.00039.00038.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)32.587
M≥335.06119.00068.00031.00029.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)25.892
M≥3.127.85114.00055.00025.00023.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)20.565
M≥3.222.12210.00044.00020.00019.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)16.347
M≥3.317.5507.00036.00016.00015.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)12.964
M≥3.413.9385.00029.00012.00012.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)10.292
M≥3.511.0654.00024.00010.0009.0001.000 (99.98%)[99.95% 99.99%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)8.173
M≥3.68.7952.00020.0008.0007.0000.999 (99.91%)[99.86% 99.94%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)6.497
M≥3.76.9802.00016.0006.0006.0000.996 (99.60%)[99.51% 99.67%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)5.159
M≥3.85.5391.00013.0005.0004.0000.987 (98.74%)[98.59% 98.87%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)4.089
M≥3.94.3980.00011.0004.0003.0000.970 (97.01%)[96.79% 97.22%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)3.250
M≥43.4930.0009.0003.0002.0000.939 (93.92%)[93.62% 94.22%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)2.579
M≥4.12.7750.0008.0002.0002.0000.895 (89.47%)[89.08% 89.85%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)2.051
M≥4.22.2040.0007.0002.0001.0000.835 (83.52%)[83.05% 83.97%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)1.630
M≥4.31.7470.0006.0001.0001.0000.762 (76.17%)[75.64% 76.70%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)1.291
M≥4.41.3850.0005.0001.0001.0000.683 (68.32%)[67.74% 68.90%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)1.024
M≥4.51.0940.0004.0001.0000.0000.600 (59.95%)[59.34% 60.56%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)0.811
M≥4.60.8650.0004.0001.0000.0000.516 (51.59%)[50.97% 52.21%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)0.640
M≥4.70.6840.0003.0000.0000.0000.438 (43.80%)[43.18% 44.41%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)0.504
M≥4.80.5410.0003.0000.0000.0000.369 (36.88%)[36.28% 37.48%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)0.400
M≥4.90.4280.0002.0000.0000.0000.307 (30.68%)[30.11% 31.26%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)0.316
M≥50.3370.0002.0000.0000.0000.252 (25.23%)[24.70% 25.78%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)0.249
M≥5.10.2670.0002.0000.0000.0000.206 (20.65%)[20.15% 21.16%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)0.197
M≥5.20.2110.0002.0000.0000.0000.167 (16.67%)[16.21% 17.14%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)0.154
M≥5.30.1660.0001.0000.0000.0000.134 (13.38%)[12.97% 13.81%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)0.121
M≥5.40.1300.0001.0000.0000.0000.107 (10.73%)[10.35% 11.12%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)0.095
M≥5.50.1020.0001.0000.0000.0000.086 (8.57%)[8.23% 8.93%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)0.074
M≥5.60.0800.0001.0000.0000.0000.068 (6.79%)[6.48% 7.11%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)0.057
M≥5.70.0630.0001.0000.0000.0000.054 (5.44%)[5.16% 5.73%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)0.045
M≥5.80.0480.0001.0000.0000.0000.042 (4.23%)[3.98% 4.49%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)0.035
M≥5.90.0370.0001.0000.0000.0000.033 (3.29%)[3.07% 3.52%]2.44E-3 (0.24%)0.027
M≥60.0290.0001.0000.0000.0000.026 (2.62%)[2.43% 2.83%]2.44E-3 (0.24%)0.021
M≥6.10.0230.0000.0000.0000.0000.021 (2.11%)[1.94% 2.30%]2.40E-3 (0.24%)0.017
M≥6.20.0180.0000.0000.0000.0000.017 (1.68%)[1.52% 1.84%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)0.013
M≥6.30.0150.0000.0000.0000.0000.014 (1.36%)[1.22% 1.51%]2.28E-3 (0.23%)0.010
M≥6.40.0110.0000.0000.0000.0009.84E-3 (0.98%)[0.87% 1.12%]1.52E-3 (0.15%)7.48E-3
M≥6.57.28E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.72E-3 (0.67%)[0.58% 0.78%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)5.24E-3
M≥6.64.76E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.52E-3 (0.45%)[0.37% 0.55%]6.80E-4 (0.07%)3.44E-3
M≥6.73.44E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.28E-3 (0.33%)[0.26% 0.41%]5.60E-4 (0.06%)2.36E-3
M≥6.82.60E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.52E-3 (0.25%)[0.20% 0.32%]5.20E-4 (0.05%)1.80E-3
M≥6.91.60E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.56E-3 (0.16%)[0.11% 0.22%]4.40E-4 (0.04%)1.04E-3
M≥71.08E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.04E-3 (0.10%)[0.07% 0.15%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)6.40E-4
M≥7.18.40E-40.0000.0000.0000.0008.40E-4 (0.08%)[0.05% 0.13%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)4.40E-4
M≥7.26.80E-40.0000.0000.0000.0006.80E-4 (0.07%)[0.04% 0.11%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)3.60E-4
M≥7.34.40E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.40E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.08%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)2.00E-4
M≥7.43.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]2.40E-4 (0.02%)1.20E-4
M≥7.52.40E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.06%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)1.20E-4
M≥7.61.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)4.00E-5
M≥7.78.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0008.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)0.000
M≥7.88.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0008.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)0.000
M≥7.94.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.03%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)0.000
M≥80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Hour Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 hr Probability1 hr Prob 95% Conf1 hr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.539.85026.00058.00038.00037.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)36.027
M≥2.631.64119.00047.00030.00030.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)28.611
M≥2.725.12014.00038.00024.00023.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)22.719
M≥2.819.92811.00031.00019.00019.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)18.023
M≥2.915.8278.00026.00015.00014.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.98% 100.00%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)14.316
M≥312.5806.00022.00012.00011.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.97% 100.00%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)11.380
M≥3.110.0034.00018.00010.0009.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.97% 100.00%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)9.050
M≥3.27.9443.00015.0008.0007.0000.999 (99.94%)[99.90% 99.97%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)7.189
M≥3.36.3002.00013.0006.0006.0000.997 (99.73%)[99.66% 99.79%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)5.704
M≥3.44.9991.00011.0005.0004.0000.991 (99.05%)[98.92% 99.17%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)4.526
M≥3.53.9780.0009.0004.0003.0000.974 (97.40%)[97.20% 97.60%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)3.602
M≥3.63.1620.0008.0003.0002.0000.947 (94.68%)[94.39% 94.95%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)2.866
M≥3.72.5090.0006.0002.0002.0000.903 (90.32%)[89.94% 90.68%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)2.275
M≥3.81.9930.0006.0002.0001.0000.843 (84.34%)[83.89% 84.79%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)1.805
M≥3.91.5820.0005.0001.0001.0000.770 (77.04%)[76.51% 77.56%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)1.434
M≥41.2590.0004.0001.0001.0000.691 (69.10%)[68.53% 69.68%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)1.140
M≥4.11.0040.0004.0001.0000.0000.610 (60.98%)[60.38% 61.59%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)0.910
M≥4.20.7980.0003.0001.0000.0000.526 (52.64%)[52.01% 53.26%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)0.724
M≥4.30.6350.0003.0000.0000.0000.449 (44.90%)[44.29% 45.52%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)0.577
M≥4.40.5040.0002.0000.0000.0000.379 (37.94%)[37.34% 38.55%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)0.458
M≥4.50.3970.0002.0000.0000.0000.313 (31.31%)[30.73% 31.89%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)0.361
M≥4.60.3130.0002.0000.0000.0000.257 (25.72%)[25.18% 26.26%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)0.284
M≥4.70.2460.0002.0000.0000.0000.210 (21.01%)[20.51% 21.52%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)0.223
M≥4.80.1970.0001.0000.0000.0000.171 (17.12%)[16.66% 17.59%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)0.178
M≥4.90.1560.0001.0000.0000.0000.139 (13.89%)[13.47% 14.33%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)0.141
M≥50.1250.0001.0000.0000.0000.112 (11.21%)[10.82% 11.61%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)0.112
M≥5.10.0990.0001.0000.0000.0000.091 (9.12%)[8.77% 9.49%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)0.090
M≥5.20.0780.0001.0000.0000.0000.073 (7.25%)[6.94% 7.58%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)0.071
M≥5.30.0620.0001.0000.0000.0000.058 (5.76%)[5.48% 6.06%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)0.056
M≥5.40.0490.0001.0000.0000.0000.046 (4.61%)[4.36% 4.88%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)0.044
M≥5.50.0380.0001.0000.0000.0000.036 (3.62%)[3.40% 3.86%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)0.034
M≥5.60.0300.0001.0000.0000.0000.028 (2.83%)[2.63% 3.05%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)0.027
M≥5.70.0230.0000.0000.0000.0000.023 (2.25%)[2.07% 2.45%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)0.021
M≥5.80.0180.0000.0000.0000.0000.018 (1.77%)[1.61% 1.94%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)0.017
M≥5.90.0140.0000.0000.0000.0000.014 (1.38%)[1.24% 1.53%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)0.013
M≥60.0110.0000.0000.0000.0000.011 (1.10%)[0.97% 1.23%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)0.010
M≥6.19.12E-30.0000.0000.0000.0009.00E-3 (0.90%)[0.79% 1.03%]8.40E-4 (0.08%)8.40E-3
M≥6.27.12E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.04E-3 (0.70%)[0.61% 0.82%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)6.48E-3
M≥6.35.68E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.60E-3 (0.56%)[0.47% 0.66%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)5.24E-3
M≥6.43.96E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.92E-3 (0.39%)[0.32% 0.48%]4.80E-4 (0.05%)3.68E-3
M≥6.52.88E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.84E-3 (0.28%)[0.22% 0.36%]2.40E-4 (0.02%)2.64E-3
M≥6.61.68E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.68E-3 (0.17%)[0.12% 0.23%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)1.56E-3
M≥6.71.16E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.16E-3 (0.12%)[0.08% 0.17%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)1.04E-3
M≥6.88.40E-40.0000.0000.0000.0008.40E-4 (0.08%)[0.05% 0.13%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)8.00E-4
M≥6.94.80E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.80E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)4.40E-4
M≥72.80E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.06%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)2.80E-4
M≥7.12.40E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.06%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)2.40E-4
M≥7.22.40E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.06%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)2.40E-4
M≥7.31.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)1.20E-4
M≥7.48.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0008.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)8.00E-5
M≥7.58.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0008.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)8.00E-5
M≥7.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.02%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Hazard Change Over Time

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These plots show how the probability of ruptures of various magnitudes within 100km of any scenario rupture changes over time

M≥5.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard Change

Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour0.111 [0.108 - 0.115]0.1118.81E-51264.998.71E-5
1 Day0.252 [0.247 - 0.258]0.2512.11E-3119.482.09E-3
1 Week0.337 [0.331 - 0.343]0.3270.01522.950.015
1 Month0.417 [0.411 - 0.423]0.3790.0616.790.061
1 Year0.749 [0.746 - 0.751]0.4560.5381.390.534
10 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **1.0001 *1.000
30 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **1.0001 *1.000
100 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **1.0001 *1.000

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 1 year are included

M≥6.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard Change

Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour0.011 [9.66E-3 - 0.012]0.0111.40E-5777.381.30E-5
1 Day0.026 [0.024 - 0.028]0.0263.36E-477.583.12E-4
1 Week0.038 [0.036 - 0.041]0.0362.35E-316.292.18E-3
1 Month0.054 [0.052 - 0.057]0.0450.0105.399.32E-3
1 Year0.167 [0.165 - 0.170]0.0590.1161.450.108
10 Years0.719 [0.718 - 0.720] **0.7021.02 *0.680
30 Years0.971 [0.971 - 0.972] **0.9701 *0.967
100 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **1.0001 *1.000

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 1 year are included

M≥7.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard Change

Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour2.83E-4 [1.25E-4 - 6.07E-4]2.80E-42.64E-6107.082.41E-6
1 Day1.10E-3 [7.57E-4 - 1.61E-3]1.04E-36.33E-517.425.78E-5
1 Week2.16E-3 [1.70E-3 - 2.78E-3]1.72E-34.43E-44.884.05E-4
1 Month4.05E-3 [3.53E-3 - 4.73E-3]2.16E-31.90E-32.141.73E-3
1 Year0.026 [0.026 - 0.027]3.40E-30.0231.150.021
10 Years0.209 [0.209 - 0.210] **0.2071.01 *0.190
30 Years0.500 [0.500 - 0.501] **0.4991 *0.469
100 Years0.871 [0.871 - 0.871] **0.8711 *0.879

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 1 year are included

Trigger Rupture Fault Map

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Map

Fault Distances To Triggers

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No fault sections within 20.0 km of any trigger rupture

Individual Simulated Catalog Maps

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These are map plots of individual catalogs from the simulations, selected as the closest catalog to each of the given percentiles in terms of total number of events.

Durationp0.0 %-ilep25.0 %-ilep50.0 %-ilep75.0 %-ilep90.0 %-ilep95.0 %-ilep97.5 %-ilep98.0 %-ilep99.0 %-ilep99.996 %-ile
1 WeekMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap
1 MonthMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap
1 YearMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min Mag1 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)1 yr Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 52 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 1 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.005121.80E-3 (0.18%)[0.13% 0.24%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)[0.19% 0.32%]2.76E-3 (0.28%)[0.22% 0.35%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)[0.36% 0.52%]0.00144
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.00143.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.03% 0.10%]7.60E-4 (0.08%)[0.05% 0.12%]1.28E-3 (0.13%)[0.09% 0.18%]3.2E-4
Lenwood-Lockhart-Old Woman Springs5.2E-42.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]2.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.06%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.06%]4.40E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.08%]1.2E-4
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)5.2E-41.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]2.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.06%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]5.20E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]1.2E-4
Helendale-So Lockhart4.8E-41.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.06%]4.80E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]1.2E-4
San Andreas (Mojave N)4.0E-48.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.08%]8.0E-5
San Andreas (Big Bend)3.2E-44.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.03%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]8.0E-5
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev3.2E-44.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.03%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]8.0E-5
San Andreas (Cholame) rev3.2E-44.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.03%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]8.0E-5
San Andreas (Parkfield)3.2E-48.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]1.2E-4

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 42 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 1 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.001524.40E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.08%]6.80E-4 (0.07%)[0.04% 0.11%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)[0.05% 0.13%]1.52E-3 (0.15%)[0.11% 0.21%]3.6E-4
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.001363.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.03% 0.10%]7.20E-4 (0.07%)[0.04% 0.12%]1.24E-3 (0.12%)[0.09% 0.18%]3.2E-4
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)5.2E-41.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]2.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.06%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]5.20E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]1.2E-4
San Andreas (Mojave N)4.0E-48.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.08%]8.0E-5
Lenwood-Lockhart-Old Woman Springs3.6E-41.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]1.2E-4
San Andreas (Big Bend)3.2E-44.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.03%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]8.0E-5
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev3.2E-44.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.03%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]8.0E-5
San Andreas (Cholame) rev3.2E-44.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.03%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]8.0E-5
San Andreas (Parkfield)2.8E-44.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.03%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.06%]8.0E-5
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)2.8E-41.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]2.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.06%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.06%]1.2E-4

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 32 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 1 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.001123.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]5.20E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]6.40E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.11%]1.12E-3 (0.11%)[0.08% 0.16%]2.4E-4
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)9.2E-42.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.06%]4.80E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.09%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.03% 0.10%]9.20E-4 (0.09%)[0.06% 0.14%]2.4E-4
San Andreas (Mojave N)4.0E-48.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.08%]8.0E-5
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)3.6E-41.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]2.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.06%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.06%]3.60E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.07%]1.2E-4
San Andreas (Big Bend)3.2E-44.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.03%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]8.0E-5
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev3.2E-44.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.03%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]8.0E-5
San Andreas (Cholame) rev3.2E-44.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.03%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]8.0E-5
San Andreas (Parkfield)2.8E-44.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.03%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.06%]8.0E-5
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)2.8E-41.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]2.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.06%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.06%]1.2E-4
San Andreas (Coachella) rev2.0E-48.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]8.0E-5

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 27 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 1 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (Mojave S)6.8E-42.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.06%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.08%]6.80E-4 (0.07%)[0.04% 0.11%]2.0E-4
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)6.4E-42.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.06%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.08%]6.40E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.11%]2.0E-4
San Andreas (Mojave N)3.6E-48.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]3.60E-4 (0.04%)[0.02% 0.07%]8.0E-5
San Andreas (Big Bend)3.2E-44.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.03%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]8.0E-5
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev3.2E-44.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.03%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]8.0E-5
San Andreas (Cholame) rev3.2E-44.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.03%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.07%]8.0E-5
San Andreas (Parkfield)2.8E-44.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.03%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.06%]8.0E-5
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)2.4E-41.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]2.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.06%]1.2E-4
San Andreas (Coachella) rev2.0E-48.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]8.0E-5
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)2.0E-48.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.03%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.04%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.05%]8.0E-5

Fault Magnitude-Probability Distributions

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The first 5 sections (sorted by trigger rate) are plotted below. All fault MPDs are available here

1 Week1 Month1 Year
MPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPD

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥2.5Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 25000,
  "duration": 1.0,
  "startYear": 2020,
  "includeSpontaneous": false,
  "randomSeed": 1583273573519,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "M6AwaySAF",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2020_03_03-M6AwaySAF",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "triggerRuptures": [
    {
      "mag": 6.0,
      "latitude": 34.695,
      "longitude": -117.7,
      "depth": 5.0
    }
  ],
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.14,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2020 --num-simulations 25000 --duration-years 1 --magnitude 6 --latitude 34.695 --depth 5 --longitude -117.7 --name M6AwaySAF --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec",
  "configTime": 1583273573519
}