Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog Results

Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog
Num Simulations1000
Start Time2012/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1325376000000
Duration500 Years
Includes Spontaneous?true
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Historical Ruptures60366 Trigger Ruptures
First: M7.3 at 1852/01/05 04:40:39 UTC
Last: M3.2 at 2011/12/31 19:14:44 UTC
Largest: M7.9 at 1857/01/09 16:25:39 UTC
Config Generated Withu3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --random-seed 123456789 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec

Table Of Contents

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

(top)

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥57.7976.5909.6087.6767.1788.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.16.1665.2107.6586.0686.1966.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.24.8694.1266.0144.8004.5445.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.33.8383.2344.7323.7903.6704.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.43.0202.5523.7222.9802.8663.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.52.3722.0042.8942.3422.1882.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.61.8541.5502.2501.8361.8382.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.71.4441.2281.7561.4281.4501.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.81.1190.9581.3541.1081.0821.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.90.8520.7241.0320.8440.8501.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥60.6720.5700.8020.6660.6660.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.10.5170.4340.6180.5120.4940.6601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.20.4070.3400.4860.4040.3940.5291.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.30.3200.2680.3840.3180.3320.4201.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.40.2510.2060.3000.2500.2500.3321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.50.1940.1540.2320.1940.1900.2601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.60.1520.1180.1860.1520.1560.2051.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.70.1180.0900.1460.1180.1220.1601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.80.0930.0700.1180.0920.0860.1271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.90.0730.0540.0940.0720.0740.1001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥70.0570.0400.0740.0560.0540.0781.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.10.0440.0300.0580.0440.0420.0601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.20.0330.0220.0460.0320.0320.0451.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.30.0260.0160.0380.0260.0240.0351.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.40.0200.0120.0300.0200.0200.0271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.50.0148.00E-30.0220.0140.0140.0191.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.60.0114.00E-30.0180.0100.0100.0141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.77.85E-34.00E-30.0148.00E-38.00E-39.58E-31.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.85.45E-32.00E-30.0106.00E-36.00E-36.19E-30.992 (99.20%)[98.36% 99.63%]0.992 (99.20%)
M≥7.93.10E-30.0006.00E-34.00E-32.00E-33.51E-30.894 (89.40%)[87.29% 91.21%]0.894 (89.40%)
M≥81.60E-30.0004.00E-32.00E-32.00E-32.03E-30.610 (61.00%)[57.89% 64.02%]0.610 (61.00%)
M≥8.17.36E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-30.333 (33.30%)[30.40% 36.33%]0.333 (33.30%)
M≥8.23.38E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0004.48E-40.162 (16.20%)[14.00% 18.66%]0.162 (16.20%)
M≥8.36.60E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-40.033 (3.30%)[2.32% 4.66%]0.033 (3.30%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)

Long Term Rate Variability

(top)

162 Year Variability

(top)

Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.7977477.5370377.3086421.44153796.01851846.6604948.85802511.1049385
5.16.16662555.9629635.60493851.13732084.7407415.2592597.0123468.722222
5.24.8685744.7160494.43827150.89374263.7283954.1543215.51851846.845679
5.33.83861333.72222233.45679020.69756672.91358023.2716054.3518525.4012346
5.43.02023242.93209892.89506170.539979762.29629642.5802473.4259264.2098765
5.52.37205552.3086422.14197540.420628161.79629622.02469132.69753073.2654321
5.61.85450411.80246911.70987650.32428991.40123461.58641972.11111122.5493827
5.71.44419751.40740741.33950610.245279371.08641971.23456791.64197531.9567901
5.81.11855351.09259261.0740740.185036870.8456790.9629631.27777781.4938271
5.90.851730470.83333330.78395060.13794960.64197530.728395040.96913581.1481482
6.00.67202880.660493850.64197530.105416480.50.57407410.76543210.90123457
6.10.51734980.51234570.51851850.083570740.376543220.43827160.598765430.69135803
6.20.40717490.401234570.38888890.066408050.290123460.345679010.46913580.54320985
6.30.320390940.31481480.308641970.0542202480.222222220.26543210.376543220.43209878
6.40.25091360.246913580.253086420.0445703570.172839510.20370370.29629630.34567901
6.50.194403290.191358030.185185180.037447090.123456790.160493820.228395060.27160493
6.60.151613180.148148150.154320990.0316635220.092592590.117283950.185185180.21604939
6.70.117676960.117283950.117283950.0268239830.0740740750.092592590.141975310.17283951
6.80.0929382740.092592590.092592590.0230108370.0493827160.067901230.117283950.14197531
6.90.072604940.0740740750.067901230.0199139790.0370370370.0493827160.092592590.11111111
7.00.0568148160.0555555560.0555555560.0170026870.0246913580.0370370370.0740740750.09259259
7.10.0434423870.0432098770.0432098770.0149796350.0185185190.0308641980.0555555560.074074075
7.20.0328868330.0308641980.0308641980.0127112260.0123456790.0185185190.0432098770.061728396
7.30.025965020.0246913580.0246913580.0110253140.00617283960.0123456790.0370370370.049382716
7.40.0200637860.0185185190.0185185190.00952658150.00617283960.0123456790.0308641980.043209877
7.50.014362140.0123456790.0123456790.0078417580.00.00617283960.0246913580.030864198
7.60.0108950610.0123456790.00617283960.0066315940.00.00617283960.0185185190.024691358
7.70.0078353910.00617283960.00617283960.0053756150.00.00.0123456790.018518519
7.80.0054465020.00617283960.00617283960.00441113250.00.00.0123456790.012345679
7.90.003094650.00.00.00356090880.00.00.00617283960.012345679
8.00.00159876540.00.00.0028241810.00.00.00617283960.0061728396
8.17.2427985E-40.00.00.0019996050.00.00.00.0061728396
8.23.3539094E-40.00.00.00139945710.00.00.00.0061728396
8.36.1728395E-50.00.06.1429216E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

80 Year Variability

(top)

Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.80060437.38756.93752.0145185.5756.3259.087512.4125
5.16.1690295.855.451.58800594.45.07.18759.8125
5.24.87043764.6254.36251.24601163.453.93755.68757.6875
5.33.84015823.66253.43750.97203962.73.14.48756.0
5.43.0214482.8752.80.75401922.11252.43753.554.7
5.52.37299162.26252.2250.58805691.651.91252.83.6625
5.61.85534171.7751.63750.45164361.2751.52.18752.85
5.71.44468551.38751.36250.342037140.98751.16251.72.1875
5.81.11892711.08750.96250.25621670.750.91.3251.675
5.90.852133330.8250.80.190822110.56250.68751.01251.2625
6.00.67231040.650.61250.146441160.43750.53750.80.9875
6.10.517522930.50.50.115535170.3250.41250.6250.7625
6.20.407291680.40.38750.093125120.250.31250.48750.6125
6.30.320495840.31250.30.0771877240.18750.250.40.4875
6.40.251004160.250.2250.064666620.13750.18750.31250.3875
6.50.19453750.18750.18750.0547792430.10.13750.250.3125
6.60.15166250.150.150.0461816820.0750.10.20.25
6.70.117722910.11250.11250.039741220.050.0750.16250.2
6.80.09296250.08750.08750.034589050.03750.06250.1250.1625
6.90.072616670.0750.06250.03031680.0250.03750.10.1375
7.00.0568083340.050.050.02634530.01250.0250.08750.1125
7.10.043441670.03750.03750.0229717470.00.0250.06250.1
7.20.0328750.0250.0250.019446120.00.01250.050.075
7.30.0259520840.0250.0250.0169650630.00.01250.03750.0625
7.40.0200458340.01250.01250.0147486860.00.00.03750.05
7.50.0143666670.01250.01250.0122422990.00.00.0250.0375
7.60.010906250.01250.01250.0104783570.00.00.0250.0375
7.70.0078416660.01250.00.00871601050.00.00.01250.025
7.80.00544583330.00.00.00719428760.00.00.01250.025
7.90.00309583340.00.00.005646190.00.00.01250.0125
8.00.00159583330.00.00.00422764240.00.00.00.0125
8.17.2708336E-40.00.00.00292597320.00.00.00.0125
8.23.375E-40.00.00.00202621030.00.00.00.0125
8.36.25E-50.00.08.817445E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

28 Year Variability

(top)

Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.8025047.0714296.3571433.28523184.8571435.759.515.142858
5.16.1705235.6071435.0357142.58802083.78571444.5357147.511.928572
5.24.87153344.4285714.1071432.02937252.96428563.57142855.9285719.357142
5.33.8409813.53.1071431.58583252.28571442.78571444.7142867.357143
5.43.02194122.78571442.6071431.23329371.752.17857153.71428565.75
5.52.37338232.17857151.92857150.961248761.35714281.71428572.92857154.5
5.61.85547481.71428571.57142850.74123561.01.32142852.32142853.5
5.71.44481721.35714281.21428570.56476510.751.03571431.82142852.6785715
5.81.11890971.03571430.964285730.426146150.57142860.785714271.42857152.0357144
5.90.852084040.82142860.714285730.319931540.428571430.57142861.10714281.5714285
6.00.67225630.642857130.642857130.247811030.321428570.46428570.892857131.2142857
6.10.51746220.50.46428570.196070340.214285720.321428570.67857140.96428573
6.20.40722690.392857130.321428570.159615730.142857150.250.535714270.78571427
6.30.320426460.321428570.28571430.133843720.107142860.178571430.428571430.60714287
6.40.25097270.250.214285720.112687860.0714285750.142857150.357142870.5
6.50.194516810.178571430.178571430.095537610.0357142870.107142860.28571430.39285713
6.60.151661770.142857150.142857150.0819137540.0357142870.0714285750.214285720.32142857
6.70.117705880.107142860.107142860.070424020.00.0357142870.178571430.2857143
6.80.0929474760.0714285750.0714285750.0610447080.00.0357142870.142857150.21428572
6.90.0725882350.0714285750.0357142870.0532245750.00.0357142870.107142860.17857143
7.00.0567857140.0357142870.0357142870.046577010.00.00.107142860.17857143
7.10.0434411760.0357142870.0357142870.040503970.00.00.0714285750.14285715
7.20.0328655470.0357142870.00.0347223430.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.30.0259432770.0357142870.00.0305134020.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.40.0200441180.00.00.0267384950.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.50.0143529410.00.00.0225090630.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.60.0108928570.00.00.0194072390.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.70.0078424370.00.00.0162316560.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.80.00545168060.00.00.0133995680.00.00.00.035714287
7.90.00309663870.00.00.01016917450.00.00.00.035714287
8.00.00160084040.00.00.00740023380.00.00.00.035714287
8.17.289916E-40.00.00.00505029550.00.00.00.0
8.23.382353E-40.00.00.00345920980.00.00.00.0
8.36.302521E-50.00.00.00149901980.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Variability Duration Dependence

(top)

Duration Dependence Plot

Download CSV Here

Duration (years)MeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
1.07.7974426.05.012.9298821.03.011.025.0
4.07.7974426.55.757.4749053.04.510.021.25
8.07.7990046.6256.05.59159043.755.09.7519.125
12.07.7981836.755.754.73451854.16666655.259.66666717.916666
16.07.7990046.8756.18754.18711574.43755.3759.62516.9375
20.07.7974426.956.053.79205234.65.559.5516.35
24.07.80060437.04166656.16666653.5078914.755.66666659.515.666667
28.07.8025047.0714296.3571433.28523184.8571435.759.515.142858
32.07.80060437.1256.406253.11208654.93755.81259.4062514.75
36.07.812787.16666656.6111112.93237855.02777775.8888899.41666714.472222
40.07.80060437.1756.9752.79157765.1255.959.3513.975
44.07.7993457.22727256.86363652.70327575.1818186.09.31818213.727273
48.07.80060437.256.45833352.57517085.22916656.04166659.312513.479167
52.07.812787.2692316.71153832.5154275.2692316.11538469.2513.365385
56.07.81883247.3035716.3571432.43006095.3571436.1428579.32142813.125
60.07.80060437.31666666.92.30770045.3666676.18333349.21666613.0
64.07.81883247.343756.5468752.29104835.4218756.2031259.23437512.859375
68.07.8025047.3529417.1323532.18488055.4705886.2205889.16176512.617647
72.07.82553247.3756.93055532.13968255.56.27777779.19444512.555555
76.07.81396067.3815796.8815792.0823845.55263146.31578979.13157912.486842
80.07.80060437.38756.93752.0145185.5756.3259.087512.4125
84.07.8282267.4047627.26190472.00370225.6071436.3571439.14285812.25
88.07.82367047.4431827.73863651.96140585.6590916.4090919.10227312.170455
92.07.8163267.4239136.76086951.90477415.6521746.4239139.05434812.021739
96.07.80060437.41666657.08333351.8574445.69791656.41666659.0312511.927083
100.07.7974427.447.011.83229555.716.439.0111.98
200.07.83670767.67.231.34779186.186.7958.7910.96
300.07.86826667.677.3833331.09883216.41333346.958.69666710.293333
400.07.83670767.67757.46750.961268666.557.0358.589.72
500.07.7974427.6767.1780.86424816.597.0548.4649.608

Simulation Stationarity

(top)

Stationarity Plot

Moment Rate Plot

Section Participation

(top)

Section Participation Plots

(top)

Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term Model
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 10 of 313 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0421321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.047238618
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0283441.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.03419009
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0185061.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.016211301
Mendocino0.0179941.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.028919645
Cerro Prieto0.0134461.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.015186971
Imperial0.0117681.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.014349225
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0110741.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.013392845
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0093461.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.009440966
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.008610.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.008909097
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev0.0078820.993 (99.30%)[98.50% 99.69%]0.008455746

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 10 of 305 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
Cerro Prieto0.0115441.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.013091409
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0107760.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.012216282
Mendocino0.0092681.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.012516479
Imperial0.008161.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0096799815
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0079520.997 (99.70%)[99.05% 99.92%]0.008140643
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0077741.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.009075132
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0070020.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]0.0067372364
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0068080.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.00821497
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0067461.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0067538084
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0062920.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.006658823

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 10 of 272 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0068840.992 (99.20%)[98.36% 99.63%]0.007612852
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.00560.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.005722108
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0055980.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.0057427646
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0052980.992 (99.20%)[98.36% 99.63%]0.0062776324
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0052720.997 (99.70%)[99.05% 99.92%]0.0052993274
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0049680.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.0051040766
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0047320.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]0.005556243
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0046260.986 (98.60%)[97.60% 99.20%]0.004749499
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0045580.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]0.0045623486
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0044440.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]0.0049385377

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 10 of 203 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0048660.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.0049894005
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0044360.997 (99.70%)[99.05% 99.92%]0.0044245115
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0044020.991 (99.10%)[98.23% 99.56%]0.0045267143
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0041440.993 (99.30%)[98.50% 99.69%]0.004201805
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.003960.982 (98.20%)[97.11% 98.90%]0.0040264158
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0037280.982 (98.20%)[97.11% 98.90%]0.0045710644
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0036440.947 (94.70%)[93.08% 95.97%]0.0037959707
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0035280.909 (90.90%)[88.90% 92.57%]0.0038110747
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM0.003130.951 (95.10%)[93.52% 96.32%]0.0035515025
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0031240.910 (91.00%)[89.01% 92.67%]0.0032088608

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 10 of 55 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0014320.569 (56.90%)[53.76% 59.99%]0.0018098651
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0014180.566 (56.60%)[53.46% 59.69%]0.0017636013
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0014040.561 (56.10%)[52.96% 59.20%]0.0017508415
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0014020.560 (56.00%)[52.86% 59.10%]0.0017453934
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.001380.555 (55.50%)[52.35% 58.60%]0.0017193216
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0013680.552 (55.20%)[52.05% 58.31%]0.0016807786
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0011880.494 (49.40%)[46.26% 52.55%]0.0015122787
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0010820.452 (45.20%)[42.09% 48.35%]0.0014250289
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM7.42E-40.330 (33.00%)[30.11% 36.03%]0.0010319632
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM6.82E-40.308 (30.80%)[27.97% 33.78%]9.2652056E-4

Gridded Nucleation

(top)

Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term Model
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

(top)

{
  "numSimulations": 1000,
  "duration": 500.0,
  "startYear": 2012,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 123456789,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_triggered_descendants",
      "descendantsOnly": true
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV\u003d1.5, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2019_11_05-Start2012_500yr_kCOV1p5_Spontaneous_HistoricalCatalog",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": true,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.14,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "etas_k_cov": 1.5,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --random-seed 123456789 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec",
  "configTime": 1572975610580
}