Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.16, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog Results

Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.16, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog
Num Simulations1000
Start Time2012/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1325376000000
Duration500 Years
Includes Spontaneous?true
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Trigger Ruptures60366 Trigger Ruptures
First: M7.3 at 1852/01/05 04:40:39 UTC
Last: M3.2 at 2011/12/31 19:14:44 UTC
Largest: M7.9 at 1857/01/09 16:25:39 UTC
Config Generated Withu3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.16 --random-seed 123456789 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec

Table Of Contents

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous

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Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥57.7796.6949.5127.6667.7588.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.16.1535.2667.5006.0686.3746.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.24.8614.1565.9004.7984.9645.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.33.8333.2744.6783.7863.7204.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.43.0162.5743.6822.9783.1063.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.52.3692.0322.8842.3482.3262.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.61.8581.5942.2541.8421.7802.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.71.4481.2461.7301.4381.3741.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.81.1230.9681.3341.1141.0721.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.90.8540.7341.0020.8500.8441.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥60.6750.5780.7880.6700.6620.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.10.5190.4380.6080.5180.4980.6601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.20.4090.3440.4840.4100.4160.5291.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.30.3220.2700.3820.3220.3140.4201.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.40.2530.2080.3000.2520.2460.3321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.50.1950.1580.2360.1940.1900.2601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.60.1520.1200.1860.1520.1460.2051.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.70.1180.0920.1480.1180.1220.1601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.80.0930.0700.1200.0920.0900.1271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.90.0730.0540.0940.0720.0700.1001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥70.0570.0400.0760.0560.0580.0781.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.10.0430.0300.0600.0420.0420.0601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.20.0330.0220.0460.0320.0300.0451.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.30.0260.0160.0380.0260.0240.0351.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.40.0200.0120.0300.0200.0200.0271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.50.0148.00E-30.0220.0140.0140.0191.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.60.0116.00E-30.0180.0100.0100.0141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.77.77E-34.00E-30.0128.00E-36.00E-39.58E-31.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.85.48E-32.00E-30.0106.00E-36.00E-36.19E-30.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]0.995 (99.50%)
M≥7.93.04E-30.0006.00E-32.00E-32.00E-33.51E-30.867 (86.70%)[84.40% 88.71%]0.867 (86.70%)
M≥81.63E-30.0004.00E-32.00E-32.00E-32.03E-30.611 (61.10%)[57.99% 64.12%]0.611 (61.10%)
M≥8.17.90E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-30.354 (35.40%)[32.45% 38.47%]0.354 (35.40%)
M≥8.23.30E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0004.48E-40.157 (15.70%)[13.53% 18.14%]0.157 (15.70%)
M≥8.36.60E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-40.032 (3.20%)[2.23% 4.54%]0.032 (3.20%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)

Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

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Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥50.3450.1580.9600.2760.2348.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.996 (99.60%)0.094
M≥5.10.2740.1200.7660.2220.1806.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.996 (99.60%)0.075
M≥5.20.2160.0940.6060.1740.1545.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.996 (99.60%)0.060
M≥5.30.1710.0720.4780.1400.1224.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.996 (99.60%)0.048
M≥5.40.1340.0560.3660.1100.1003.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.996 (99.60%)0.038
M≥5.50.1060.0420.2860.0880.0842.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.996 (99.60%)0.031
M≥5.60.0830.0320.2220.0700.0642.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.996 (99.60%)0.025
M≥5.70.0650.0240.1720.0540.0501.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.996 (99.60%)0.020
M≥5.80.0500.0180.1280.0420.0341.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.996 (99.60%)0.016
M≥5.90.0380.0120.0940.0320.0261.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.994 (99.40%)0.013
M≥60.0290.0100.0740.0260.0240.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.994 (99.40%)0.010
M≥6.10.0226.00E-30.0540.0200.0160.6600.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.991 (99.10%)7.95E-3
M≥6.20.0184.00E-30.0440.0160.0120.5290.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]0.987 (98.70%)6.64E-3
M≥6.30.0142.00E-30.0360.0120.0100.4200.994 (99.40%)[98.63% 99.76%]0.980 (98.00%)5.44E-3
M≥6.40.0112.00E-30.0280.0108.00E-30.3320.987 (98.70%)[97.73% 99.28%]0.968 (96.80%)4.30E-3
M≥6.58.59E-30.0000.0228.00E-38.00E-30.2600.969 (96.90%)[95.58% 97.85%]0.938 (93.80%)3.36E-3
M≥6.66.70E-30.0000.0186.00E-34.00E-30.2050.934 (93.40%)[91.63% 94.82%]0.894 (89.40%)2.64E-3
M≥6.75.14E-30.0000.0144.00E-34.00E-30.1600.877 (87.70%)[85.47% 89.64%]0.838 (83.80%)2.07E-3
M≥6.84.09E-30.0000.0124.00E-32.00E-30.1270.811 (81.10%)[78.50% 83.45%]0.768 (76.80%)1.67E-3
M≥6.93.25E-30.0000.0102.00E-32.00E-30.1000.742 (74.20%)[71.35% 76.86%]0.703 (70.30%)1.33E-3
M≥72.66E-30.0000.0102.00E-30.0000.0780.664 (66.40%)[63.36% 69.31%]0.635 (63.50%)1.10E-3
M≥7.12.05E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0600.574 (57.40%)[54.26% 60.48%]0.559 (55.90%)8.60E-4
M≥7.21.60E-30.0006.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0450.503 (50.30%)[47.16% 53.44%]0.494 (49.40%)6.94E-4
M≥7.31.33E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0350.448 (44.80%)[41.69% 47.95%]0.445 (44.50%)5.84E-4
M≥7.49.96E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0270.354 (35.40%)[32.45% 38.47%]0.352 (35.20%)4.44E-4
M≥7.57.64E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0190.297 (29.70%)[26.90% 32.66%]0.297 (29.70%)3.60E-4
M≥7.66.22E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0140.252 (25.20%)[22.56% 28.03%]0.252 (25.20%)2.92E-4
M≥7.74.64E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0009.58E-30.201 (20.10%)[17.69% 22.75%]0.201 (20.10%)2.24E-4
M≥7.83.42E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0006.19E-30.152 (15.20%)[13.06% 17.61%]0.152 (15.20%)1.64E-4
M≥7.91.92E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0003.51E-30.090 (9.00%)[7.33% 10.99%]0.090 (9.00%)9.80E-5
M≥81.02E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0002.03E-30.049 (4.90%)[3.68% 6.48%]0.049 (4.90%)4.80E-5
M≥8.14.20E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-30.021 (2.10%)[1.34% 3.25%]0.021 (2.10%)2.00E-5
M≥8.22.60E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.48E-40.013 (1.30%)[0.72% 2.27%]0.013 (1.30%)1.40E-5
M≥8.36.00E-60.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-43.00E-3 (0.30%)[0.08% 0.95%]3.00E-3 (0.30%)2.00E-6
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Long Term Rate Variability

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162 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.782857.59259277.22222231.20144956.09259276.7345688.71604910.518518
5.16.15641986.0123466.04938270.94970184.8395065.33333356.89506158.327161
5.24.8635994.74691344.59259270.74814693.79629644.2037045.46913586.5740743
5.33.83493613.75308633.46296290.58735612.9938273.31481484.32098775.1790123
5.43.01793222.95061732.93209890.45985152.33950612.61111123.40740754.080247
5.52.37066052.32716062.16666670.360523221.82716052.04938272.67901233.191358
5.61.85908021.82098771.90123460.277625561.43209871.60493832.10493832.4814816
5.71.4488211.4259261.38888880.214907651.11111121.25308641.63580251.9197531
5.81.12395261.11111121.08641970.165124460.85185190.96913581.27160491.4753087
5.90.854438250.8456790.802469130.124536040.64197530.73456790.96913581.1234568
6.00.67569750.66666670.64197530.0989948360.50.58024690.771604960.8888889
6.10.51981480.51234570.493827160.078862360.382716060.444444450.59259260.6851852
6.20.40986830.40740740.413580240.0636873540.290123460.345679010.46913580.54320985
6.30.322586420.320987640.308641970.0532292760.222222220.271604930.376543220.43209878
6.40.252788070.253086420.240740750.0442031620.172839510.209876540.29629630.34567901
6.50.195450620.197530870.179012340.037545260.123456790.160493820.23456790.27160493
6.60.152304530.154320990.154320990.0318105670.092592590.123456790.185185180.21604939
6.70.1181502040.117283950.117283950.026967120.067901230.092592590.148148150.17283951
6.80.093372430.092592590.092592590.0232951770.0493827160.067901230.117283950.14197531
6.90.072942380.0740740750.0740740750.0200464220.0370370370.0555555560.092592590.11728395
7.00.057094650.0555555560.0555555560.0175824820.0246913580.0370370370.0740740750.09259259
7.10.043534980.0432098770.0432098770.0153063520.0185185190.0308641980.0617283960.074074075
7.20.032923870.0308641980.0308641980.0129242020.0123456790.0185185190.0432098770.061728396
7.30.0259732510.0246913580.0246913580.0108295510.00617283960.0185185190.0370370370.049382716
7.40.0199876540.0185185190.0185185190.0094116860.00617283960.0123456790.0308641980.043209877
7.50.0143209870.0123456790.0123456790.0078201210.00.00617283960.0246913580.030864198
7.60.01085802450.0123456790.0123456790.0064944580.00.00617283960.0185185190.024691358
7.70.00779012360.00617283960.00617283960.0054120330.00.00.0123456790.018518519
7.80.0054938270.00617283960.00617283960.0045075820.00.00.0123456790.012345679
7.90.00303909460.00.00.00363765470.00.00.00617283960.012345679
8.00.00163374480.00.00.002846330.00.00.00617283960.0061728396
8.17.983539E-40.00.00.00207753320.00.00.00.0061728396
8.23.3127572E-40.00.00.00139110330.00.00.00.0061728396
8.36.584362E-50.00.06.3411886E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

80 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.7817777.457.16251.68444855.76.49.062511.7875
5.16.15551475.95.551.33225294.48755.06257.16259.3625
5.24.86298754.6754.451.04842483.5254.05.657.3125
5.33.8343233.68753.41250.82550362.76253.154.4755.75
5.43.01758962.91252.83750.64765172.152.4753.53754.5125
5.52.37047722.28752.30.505872251.6751.93752.78753.5125
5.61.8590271.81.81250.389595151.31.5252.18752.75
5.71.44889381.41251.28750.30317271.01.1751.71252.15
5.81.12411051.11.0250.23178950.76250.91251.3251.6375
5.90.85462710.83750.850.176174250.5750.68751.01251.2375
6.00.67596040.66250.61250.140445680.43750.53750.80.9875
6.10.5200250.51250.46250.112670880.3250.41250.6250.7625
6.20.409977080.40.40.091912920.250.3250.50.6125
6.30.32271460.31250.3250.076934840.18750.250.40.4875
6.40.252820820.250.23750.064494520.13750.18750.31250.3875
6.50.195489590.18750.18750.054872910.10.13750.250.3125
6.60.152383330.150.13750.046439330.0750.11250.20.25
6.70.118189580.11250.10.039631090.050.0750.16250.2
6.80.0933895860.08750.0750.034479390.03750.06250.1250.1625
6.90.0729229150.0750.06250.0298325750.0250.03750.10.1375
7.00.0570583340.050.050.0263791010.01250.0250.08750.1125
7.10.0435041670.03750.03750.0229058750.00.0250.06250.0875
7.20.032891670.0250.0250.0194872490.00.01250.050.075
7.30.0259520840.0250.0250.0167411290.00.01250.03750.0625
7.40.0199708340.01250.01250.0145977020.00.00.03750.05
7.50.01430.01250.01250.0122086720.00.00.0250.0375
7.60.0108395830.01250.01250.010499420.00.00.0250.0375
7.70.00777291650.01250.00.0087840710.00.00.01250.025
7.80.0054854170.00.00.007327090.00.00.01250.025
7.90.00303958330.00.00.0055953380.00.00.01250.0125
8.00.001631250.00.00.00425373160.00.00.00.0125
8.17.9583336E-40.00.00.00306049830.00.00.00.0125
8.23.2708334E-40.00.00.00199538420.00.00.00.0125
8.36.666667E-50.00.09.1043336E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

28 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.78380877.1785716.6785712.72823144.9285715.8571439.46428614.357142
5.16.15713025.6785715.0714292.15736963.8571434.6071437.511.357142
5.24.8642314.54.1785711.69971123.03.6071435.9642868.964286
5.33.83522273.57142853.17857151.33858032.32142852.8571434.7142867.035714
5.43.0183362.82142852.6071431.05093611.78571432.21428563.71428565.571429
5.52.3711012.21428562.17857150.82174021.35714281.71428572.96428564.357143
5.61.85949371.751.64285720.63823651.03571431.35714282.32142853.357143
5.71.44926891.35714281.32142850.49639460.785714271.03571431.82142852.607143
5.81.12435931.07142851.03571430.38315940.57142860.785714271.42857152.0
5.90.854785740.82142860.714285730.293642370.392857130.607142871.10714281.5357143
6.00.67614080.642857130.57142860.234135640.321428570.46428570.892857131.2142857
6.10.520140770.50.46428570.189259250.214285720.357142870.67857140.96428573
6.20.410077720.392857130.357142870.156760080.142857150.250.57142860.75
6.30.32279830.321428570.28571430.132298620.107142860.178571430.46428570.60714287
6.40.252909660.250.214285720.1122628750.0714285750.142857150.357142870.5
6.50.195573520.178571430.142857150.096364850.0357142870.107142860.28571430.42857143
6.60.152468490.142857150.107142860.08238810.0357142870.0714285750.214285720.32142857
6.70.1182457950.107142860.107142860.070988130.00.0357142870.178571430.2857143
6.80.0934306760.0714285750.0714285750.0616262560.00.0357142870.142857150.25
6.90.072974790.0714285750.0357142870.053279410.00.0357142870.107142860.17857143
7.00.0571071430.0357142870.0357142870.0468991850.00.00.107142860.17857143
7.10.043548320.0357142870.0357142870.040520170.00.00.0714285750.14285715
7.20.032928570.0357142870.00.0348515250.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.30.0259684880.0357142870.00.03025390.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.40.0199768920.00.00.0263445640.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.50.0143067230.00.00.0222496650.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.60.0108403360.00.00.019107070.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.70.0077647060.00.00.0160104970.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.80.00547899170.00.00.0133908320.00.00.00.035714287
7.90.00303361360.00.00.0101065190.00.00.00.035714287
8.00.00163235290.00.00.0074989320.00.00.00.035714287
8.17.920168E-40.00.00.00525918460.00.00.00.0
8.23.277311E-40.00.00.00340547720.00.00.00.0
8.36.7226894E-50.00.00.00154804430.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Variability Duration Dependence

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Duration Dependence Plot

Download CSV Here

Duration (years)MeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
1.07.778516.05.010.9044881.03.011.025.0
4.07.778516.55.56.2142443.04.510.020.75
8.07.78092966.755.8754.66174273.8755.09.87518.375
12.07.78068076.91666656.08333353.92332824.16666655.33333359.7517.166666
16.07.78092967.06.43753.49244334.55.59.62516.1875
20.07.778517.056.353.16077734.655.659.5515.4
24.07.7817777.1256.41666652.89310814.83333355.759.514.791667
28.07.78380877.1785716.6785712.72823144.9285715.8571439.46428614.357142
32.07.7817777.218756.68752.56786425.031255.93759.4062513.84375
36.07.78206637.256.41666652.43301825.08333356.09.36111113.666667
40.07.7817777.2756.652.34043745.1756.059.32513.45
44.07.78377067.29545456.52.23030835.256.11363659.29545513.159091
48.07.7817777.33333356.66666652.1347065.31256.14583359.2512.895833
52.07.78206637.34615377.11538462.06099465.36538466.19230759.23076912.634615
56.07.78811177.3928577.3214291.94780285.4642866.259.23214212.392858
60.07.7817777.3833336.651.92603975.56.28333339.16666712.316667
64.07.78811177.4218757.218751.83866185.531256.2968759.1562512.21875
68.07.78380877.42647087.0294121.82129745.55882366.3529419.147058512.014706
72.07.7940957.44444477.09722231.75829125.59722236.3888899.11111111.972222
76.07.78991467.44736867.251.70336945.6447376.40789469.10526311.815789
80.07.7817777.457.16251.68444855.76.49.062511.7875
84.07.7974817.57.51.61535735.72619066.4642869.05952411.511905
88.07.7878757.48863656.8181821.58398015.73863656.47727259.02272711.522727
92.07.78730447.57.4021741.56918015.78260856.5217398.97826111.478261
96.07.7817777.48958356.8751.52337125.80208356.531258.95833311.489583
100.07.778517.497.01.50895115.836.548.9611.36
200.07.7982857.637.3351.06129366.316.8458.6810.235
300.07.84407667.74333337.21666670.85740696.527.098.5733349.88
400.07.7982857.77.46250.768353166.6457.0858.429.6575
500.07.778517.6667.7580.700344446.6947.1288.3549.512

Simulation Stationarity

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Stationarity Plot

Moment Rate Plot

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 313 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0425861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0038840.702 (70.20%)[67.24% 73.00%]0.001640.047238618
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0285281.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.001050.357 (35.70%)[32.74% 38.77%]4.1E-40.03419009
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0188481.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0018340.384 (38.40%)[35.39% 41.50%]6.9E-40.016211301
Mendocino0.0183241.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]9.74E-40.335 (33.50%)[30.59% 36.53%]4.74E-40.028919645
Cerro Prieto0.0135741.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.72E-40.221 (22.10%)[19.59% 24.83%]2.7E-40.015186971
Imperial0.0117341.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]7.1E-40.264 (26.40%)[23.71% 29.27%]3.44E-40.014349225
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0109321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.3E-40.212 (21.20%)[18.73% 23.89%]2.46E-40.013392845
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.009561.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.58E-40.221 (22.10%)[19.59% 24.83%]2.92E-40.009440966
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.008430.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]8.5E-40.278 (27.80%)[25.06% 30.71%]3.78E-40.008909097
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev0.0078640.990 (99.00%)[98.10% 99.49%]2.42E-40.079 (7.90%)[6.34% 9.79%]9.4E-50.008455746

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 306 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
Cerro Prieto0.0116441.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.78E-40.196 (19.60%)[17.21% 22.23%]2.26E-40.013091409
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0109140.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]4.7E-40.197 (19.70%)[17.31% 22.33%]2.0E-40.012216282
Mendocino0.0090741.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]6.46E-40.250 (25.00%)[22.37% 27.83%]3.06E-40.012516479
Imperial0.0081181.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.12E-40.168 (16.80%)[14.56% 19.30%]1.88E-40.0096799815
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0080920.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]5.16E-40.192 (19.20%)[16.83% 21.81%]2.3E-40.008140643
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0077840.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]3.72E-40.153 (15.30%)[13.16% 17.72%]1.7E-40.009075132
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0070940.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]5.32E-40.195 (19.50%)[17.12% 22.12%]2.42E-40.0067372364
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0068640.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]4.3E-40.180 (18.00%)[15.70% 20.55%]1.94E-40.00821497
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0066760.997 (99.70%)[99.05% 99.92%]3.78E-40.154 (15.40%)[13.25% 17.82%]1.36E-40.0067538084
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0061260.997 (99.70%)[99.05% 99.92%]6.0E-40.227 (22.70%)[20.16% 25.45%]2.64E-40.006658823

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 273 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0068840.989 (98.90%)[97.98% 99.42%]3.56E-40.155 (15.50%)[13.34% 17.93%]1.5E-40.007612852
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.005741.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.64E-40.185 (18.50%)[16.17% 21.08%]2.14E-40.0057427646
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0057220.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]4.62E-40.184 (18.40%)[16.07% 20.97%]2.02E-40.005722108
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0053740.991 (99.10%)[98.23% 99.56%]2.92E-40.125 (12.50%)[10.55% 14.75%]1.18E-40.0062776324
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0053060.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]3.64E-40.154 (15.40%)[13.25% 17.82%]1.74E-40.0052993274
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0049521.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.6E-40.148 (14.80%)[12.69% 17.19%]1.72E-40.0051040766
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0046620.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]3.52E-40.147 (14.70%)[12.59% 17.08%]1.68E-40.0045623486
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0046160.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]3.5E-40.142 (14.20%)[12.13% 16.55%]1.68E-40.005556243
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0045560.978 (97.80%)[96.63% 98.58%]2.88E-40.123 (12.30%)[10.36% 14.53%]1.16E-40.004749499
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.004350.963 (96.30%)[94.88% 97.35%]3.26E-40.137 (13.70%)[11.66% 16.02%]1.4E-40.004465195

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 207 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0048660.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]3.5E-40.146 (14.60%)[12.50% 16.98%]1.68E-40.0049894005
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0045280.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]3.38E-40.144 (14.40%)[12.31% 16.77%]1.6E-40.0044245115
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0043680.997 (99.70%)[99.05% 99.92%]3.0E-40.129 (12.90%)[10.92% 15.17%]1.48E-40.0045267143
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0042460.994 (99.40%)[98.63% 99.76%]3.22E-40.140 (14.00%)[11.94% 16.34%]1.58E-40.004201805
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0040640.981 (98.10%)[96.99% 98.82%]3.04E-40.133 (13.30%)[11.29% 15.60%]1.46E-40.0040264158
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.003630.984 (98.40%)[97.36% 99.05%]2.34E-40.103 (10.30%)[8.52% 12.39%]1.16E-40.0045710644
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.003530.937 (93.70%)[91.97% 95.09%]2.3E-40.102 (10.20%)[8.43% 12.28%]1.04E-40.0037959707
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0034560.885 (88.50%)[86.32% 90.38%]1.92E-40.088 (8.80%)[7.15% 10.77%]8.0E-50.0038110747
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0030880.888 (88.80%)[86.64% 90.65%]2.24E-40.100 (10.00%)[8.25% 12.07%]1.04E-40.0032088608
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM0.003040.927 (92.70%)[90.86% 94.20%]1.84E-40.084 (8.40%)[6.79% 10.34%]8.6E-50.0035515025

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 61 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.00150.588 (58.80%)[55.67% 61.86%]1.0E-40.048 (4.80%)[3.60% 6.36%]4.8E-50.0018098651
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0014760.579 (57.90%)[54.77% 60.97%]9.8E-50.047 (4.70%)[3.51% 6.25%]4.6E-50.0017508415
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0014740.579 (57.90%)[54.77% 60.97%]9.8E-50.047 (4.70%)[3.51% 6.25%]4.6E-50.0017453934
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0014480.575 (57.50%)[54.36% 60.58%]9.4E-50.046 (4.60%)[3.42% 6.14%]4.6E-50.0017636013
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0014320.567 (56.70%)[53.56% 59.79%]9.6E-50.046 (4.60%)[3.42% 6.14%]4.4E-50.0017193216
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0013780.556 (55.60%)[52.45% 58.70%]9.2E-50.045 (4.50%)[3.34% 6.02%]4.6E-50.0016807786
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0012420.504 (50.40%)[47.26% 53.54%]7.4E-50.036 (3.60%)[2.57% 5.00%]3.4E-50.0015122787
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0011240.459 (45.90%)[42.78% 49.05%]6.6E-50.032 (3.20%)[2.23% 4.54%]3.2E-50.0014250289
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM7.98E-40.349 (34.90%)[31.96% 37.96%]5.2E-50.025 (2.50%)[1.66% 3.72%]2.4E-50.0010319632
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM7.26E-40.323 (32.30%)[29.43% 35.31%]5.0E-50.024 (2.40%)[1.58% 3.61%]2.2E-59.2652056E-4

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 1000,
  "duration": 500.0,
  "startYear": 2012,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 123456789,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_triggered_descendants",
      "descendantsOnly": true
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV\u003d1.16, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2019_11_05-Start2012_500yr_kCOV1p16_Spontaneous_HistoricalCatalog",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.14,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "etas_k_cov": 1.16,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.16 --random-seed 123456789 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec",
  "configTime": 1572975614427
}