Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog Results

Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.5, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog
Num Simulations1000
Start Time2012/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1325376000000
Duration500 Years
Includes Spontaneous?true
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Trigger Ruptures60366 Trigger Ruptures
First: M7.3 at 1852/01/05 04:40:39 UTC
Last: M3.2 at 2011/12/31 19:14:44 UTC
Largest: M7.9 at 1857/01/09 16:25:39 UTC
Config Generated Withu3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --random-seed 123456789 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec

Table Of Contents

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous

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Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥57.7686.5429.8507.6267.4448.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.16.1405.1727.7086.0366.5246.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.24.8504.0806.0704.7704.9185.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.33.8223.2164.7323.7543.8364.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.43.0102.5563.7422.9662.9403.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.52.3642.0002.9162.3342.3842.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.61.8511.5682.2841.8281.8862.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.71.4421.2221.7561.4281.3321.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.81.1160.9481.3481.1061.0681.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.90.8470.7161.0100.8440.8721.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥60.6690.5680.7840.6660.6520.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.10.5140.4360.6040.5120.5040.6601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.20.4050.3380.4780.4040.3980.5291.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.30.3190.2660.3780.3180.3160.4201.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.40.2500.2060.3000.2500.2500.3321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.50.1930.1560.2320.1920.1920.2601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.60.1510.1200.1820.1500.1440.2051.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.70.1170.0920.1460.1160.1140.1601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.80.0920.0700.1180.0920.0880.1271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.90.0730.0540.0940.0720.0720.1001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥70.0570.0400.0760.0560.0540.0781.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.10.0430.0280.0580.0420.0400.0601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.20.0330.0200.0460.0320.0300.0451.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.30.0260.0160.0380.0260.0260.0351.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.40.0200.0120.0300.0200.0200.0271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.50.0148.00E-30.0220.0140.0140.0191.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.60.0116.00E-30.0180.0100.0100.0141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.77.84E-34.00E-30.0128.00E-38.00E-39.58E-31.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.85.53E-32.00E-30.0106.00E-36.00E-36.19E-30.989 (98.90%)[97.98% 99.42%]0.989 (98.90%)
M≥7.93.00E-30.0006.00E-32.00E-34.00E-33.51E-30.855 (85.50%)[83.13% 87.59%]0.855 (85.50%)
M≥81.53E-30.0004.00E-32.00E-32.00E-32.03E-30.601 (60.10%)[56.98% 63.14%]0.601 (60.10%)
M≥8.17.16E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-30.321 (32.10%)[29.23% 35.11%]0.321 (32.10%)
M≥8.22.84E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0004.48E-40.139 (13.90%)[11.85% 16.24%]0.139 (13.90%)
M≥8.36.40E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-40.032 (3.20%)[2.23% 4.54%]0.032 (3.20%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)

Magnitude Frequency Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

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Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥50.3360.1420.9080.2660.2348.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.090
M≥5.10.2660.1080.7100.2120.1606.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.072
M≥5.20.2100.0840.5580.1680.1485.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.057
M≥5.30.1660.0640.4380.1340.1104.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.046
M≥5.40.1310.0480.3440.1060.0743.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.037
M≥5.50.1030.0360.2660.0840.0582.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.029
M≥5.60.0810.0260.2080.0660.0522.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.024
M≥5.70.0630.0200.1620.0520.0441.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.019
M≥5.80.0490.0140.1260.0400.0241.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.995 (99.50%)0.015
M≥5.90.0360.0100.0960.0300.0241.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.994 (99.40%)0.012
M≥60.0288.00E-30.0700.0240.0220.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.994 (99.40%)9.74E-3
M≥6.10.0214.00E-30.0520.0180.0140.6600.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]0.986 (98.60%)7.55E-3
M≥6.20.0174.00E-30.0440.0160.0160.5290.993 (99.30%)[98.50% 99.69%]0.975 (97.50%)6.24E-3
M≥6.30.0142.00E-30.0380.0128.00E-30.4200.985 (98.50%)[97.48% 99.13%]0.972 (97.20%)5.26E-3
M≥6.40.0112.00E-30.0280.0108.00E-30.3320.976 (97.60%)[96.39% 98.42%]0.961 (96.10%)4.19E-3
M≥6.58.46E-30.0000.0228.00E-36.00E-30.2600.959 (95.90%)[94.43% 97.01%]0.935 (93.50%)3.28E-3
M≥6.66.72E-30.0000.0186.00E-34.00E-30.2050.930 (93.00%)[91.19% 94.47%]0.895 (89.50%)2.67E-3
M≥6.75.20E-30.0000.0144.00E-32.00E-30.1600.875 (87.50%)[85.25% 89.45%]0.836 (83.60%)2.11E-3
M≥6.84.17E-30.0000.0144.00E-32.00E-30.1270.813 (81.30%)[78.71% 83.64%]0.774 (77.40%)1.74E-3
M≥6.93.37E-30.0000.0122.00E-32.00E-30.1000.753 (75.30%)[72.48% 77.92%]0.722 (72.20%)1.45E-3
M≥72.76E-30.0000.0102.00E-30.0000.0780.674 (67.40%)[64.38% 70.28%]0.654 (65.40%)1.21E-3
M≥7.12.08E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0600.582 (58.20%)[55.07% 61.27%]0.563 (56.30%)9.32E-4
M≥7.21.66E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-30.0000.0450.511 (51.10%)[47.95% 54.24%]0.502 (50.20%)7.60E-4
M≥7.31.38E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0350.447 (44.70%)[41.60% 47.85%]0.441 (44.10%)6.50E-4
M≥7.41.12E-30.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0270.389 (38.90%)[35.88% 42.01%]0.387 (38.70%)5.34E-4
M≥7.58.74E-40.0006.00E-30.0000.0000.0190.321 (32.10%)[29.23% 35.11%]0.320 (32.00%)4.06E-4
M≥7.66.94E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0000.0140.262 (26.20%)[23.52% 29.06%]0.262 (26.20%)3.06E-4
M≥7.75.22E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0009.58E-30.210 (21.00%)[18.54% 23.69%]0.210 (21.00%)2.32E-4
M≥7.84.14E-40.0004.00E-30.0000.0006.19E-30.174 (17.40%)[15.13% 19.93%]0.174 (17.40%)1.86E-4
M≥7.92.08E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0003.51E-30.096 (9.60%)[7.88% 11.64%]0.096 (9.60%)7.80E-5
M≥89.80E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0002.03E-30.048 (4.80%)[3.60% 6.36%]0.048 (4.80%)4.40E-5
M≥8.13.20E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-30.016 (1.60%)[0.95% 2.64%]0.016 (1.60%)1.00E-5
M≥8.28.00E-60.0000.0000.0000.0004.48E-44.00E-3 (0.40%)[0.13% 1.10%]4.00E-3 (0.40%)2.00E-6
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-40.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Long Term Rate Variability

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162 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.76856377.50617277.13580231.46617595.9876546.63580238.76543211.148149
5.16.140945.9320995.6604941.14993174.72222235.2345686.9320998.796296
5.24.85086634.6913584.45061730.897770053.72222234.14197545.48148166.9135804
5.33.82294443.6913583.58641980.70202312.93827153.25308634.32716045.4691358
5.43.01009062.9197533.00.54586462.30246932.56790113.41358024.296296
5.52.36465642.29629642.22222230.420408071.79629622.01851842.67901233.3395061
5.61.85108231.80246911.6543210.32252811.40123461.58024692.10493832.6049383
5.71.44229221.40740741.33950610.243711051.09259261.23456791.64197532.0123458
5.81.11653911.08641971.06790130.182812590.839506150.956790151.27160491.537037
5.90.84773660.83333330.78395060.13262360.635802450.72222220.96913581.1481482
6.00.66891770.660493850.64197530.101277160.50.57407410.76543210.8888889
6.10.51419750.506172840.50.0794996840.376543220.43827160.586419760.6851852
6.20.405298350.401234570.395061730.064126940.290123460.345679010.46913580.537037
6.30.319563780.31481480.29629630.052729250.222222220.271604930.370370360.43209878
6.40.250615240.246913580.228395060.04347190.172839510.209876540.29629630.33950618
6.50.193144040.191358030.185185180.0365104640.129629630.154320990.228395060.27160493
6.60.151251030.148148150.141975310.0310864370.098765430.123456790.185185180.21604939
6.70.117222220.117283950.117283950.0262723530.067901230.092592590.141975310.17283951
6.80.092358020.092592590.0864197540.0223634260.0493827160.067901230.117283950.13580246
6.90.0723909440.0740740750.067901230.0196508930.0370370370.0555555560.092592590.11111111
7.00.056734570.0555555560.0555555560.0172101450.0246913580.0370370370.0740740750.09259259
7.10.0432016480.0432098770.0432098770.0146622780.0185185190.0308641980.0555555560.074074075
7.20.0328292180.0308641980.0308641980.0123893220.0123456790.0185185190.0432098770.061728396
7.30.0260411520.0246913580.0246913580.0106884370.00617283960.0185185190.0370370370.049382716
7.40.0200823040.0185185190.0185185190.0091692940.00617283960.0123456790.0308641980.037037037
7.50.0144547330.0123456790.0123456790.0077810360.00.00617283960.0246913580.030864198
7.60.0109094650.0123456790.0123456790.00645014830.00.00617283960.0185185190.024691358
7.70.0078209880.00617283960.00617283960.00532576070.00.00.0123456790.018518519
7.80.00550.00617283960.00617283960.00454638060.00.00.0123456790.012345679
7.90.00298148140.00.00.00356234520.00.00.00617283960.012345679
8.00.00153497940.00.00.00275711250.00.00.00617283960.0061728396
8.17.160494E-40.00.00.00198311220.00.00.00.0061728396
8.22.8395062E-40.00.00.00129311780.00.00.00.0061728396
8.36.378601E-50.00.06.2423723E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

80 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.7659547.33757.06252.03509045.56.39.0512.575
5.16.138895.81255.3751.59774484.33754.9757.16259.925
5.24.8491964.64.3751.24956923.4253.9255.66257.8
5.33.82148553.6253.6250.978139462.68753.08754.46256.1375
5.43.0092.86252.81250.76158932.12.4253.5254.8
5.52.3637272.26252.2250.587539851.63751.92.7753.75
5.61.85038751.7751.73750.451007041.26251.48752.1752.925
5.71.44164791.38751.450.34229610.9751.16251.72.2375
5.81.11606041.0751.1250.25686350.750.91.31251.725
5.90.84743750.8250.78750.187640770.56250.68751.01251.275
6.00.66877920.650.6250.144558060.43750.53750.80.9875
6.10.51410420.50.4750.1141532660.3250.40.6250.7625
6.20.405191660.40.38750.092991790.23750.31250.50.6125
6.30.31952710.31250.30.0765698250.18750.250.38750.4875
6.40.250579180.250.23750.063938270.13750.18750.31250.3875
6.50.193091660.18750.18750.054328610.10.13750.250.3125
6.60.151233330.150.1250.046432520.0750.10.20.25
6.70.117166670.11250.11250.039634310.050.0750.150.2
6.80.092331250.08750.08750.0342070530.03750.06250.1250.1625
6.90.0723770860.0750.06250.0301510170.0250.03750.10.1375
7.00.0567416660.050.050.0263216870.01250.0250.08750.1125
7.10.0432020840.03750.03750.0227236990.00.0250.06250.0875
7.20.0328104160.0250.0250.0192370770.00.01250.050.075
7.30.02603750.0250.0250.016722820.00.01250.03750.0625
7.40.0200770830.01250.01250.0144467160.00.00.03750.05
7.50.0144666670.01250.01250.0122935850.00.00.0250.0375
7.60.0109270830.01250.01250.0104731750.00.00.0250.0375
7.70.0078416660.01250.00.0087242430.00.00.01250.025
7.80.00551666650.00.00.00735156840.00.00.01250.025
7.90.002993750.00.00.00561071930.00.00.01250.0125
8.00.00154166670.00.00.00415435670.00.00.00.0125
8.17.208333E-40.00.00.0029228240.00.00.00.0125
8.22.875E-40.00.00.00187379130.00.00.00.0
8.36.4583335E-50.00.08.9617E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

28 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.7641457.0357146.3571433.2184534.8214295.759.42857215.107142
5.16.13727955.5714295.2142862.52924923.78571444.5357147.46428611.892858
5.24.84816174.4285714.1428571.98397042.92857153.53571445.9285719.428572
5.33.82045173.53.28571441.55531952.252.78571444.6785717.392857
5.43.00789282.752.57142851.21624581.71428572.17857153.71428565.821429
5.52.3628782.17857151.92857150.942278561.32142851.71428572.92857154.535714
5.61.84967231.71428571.50.724278031.01.32142852.32142853.5
5.71.44114911.35714281.250.55187570.751.03571431.82142852.7142856
5.81.11572061.03571430.964285730.417704340.57142860.785714271.42857152.0714285
5.90.847287830.785714270.750.31235470.392857130.57142861.10714281.5714285
6.00.6686870.642857130.57142860.24337390.28571430.46428570.892857131.2142857
6.10.514048340.50.46428570.193438010.214285720.321428570.67857140.96428573
6.20.405117660.392857130.357142870.159072030.142857150.250.535714270.75
6.30.319418070.321428570.250.132984240.107142860.178571430.428571430.60714287
6.40.25051680.250.214285720.1123137550.0714285750.142857150.357142870.5
6.50.19299580.178571430.178571430.095770770.0357142870.107142860.28571430.39285713
6.60.151201680.142857150.142857150.081697710.0357142870.0714285750.214285720.32142857
6.70.117132350.107142860.107142860.069867930.00.0357142870.178571430.2857143
6.80.0923193250.0714285750.0714285750.060660720.00.0357142870.142857150.21428572
6.90.072350840.0714285750.0357142870.0529471080.00.0357142870.107142860.17857143
7.00.056720590.0357142870.0357142870.0462113730.00.00.107142860.17857143
7.10.0431953780.0357142870.0357142870.0401182550.00.00.0714285750.14285715
7.20.0328193270.0357142870.00.034489830.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.30.0260399150.0357142870.00.0304571840.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.40.0200882350.00.00.0264916010.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.50.014474790.00.00.0224302370.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.60.0109306720.00.00.0193194840.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.70.0078361340.00.00.0161763490.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.80.0055126050.00.00.0135220740.00.00.00.035714287
7.90.00298949590.00.00.0100489740.00.00.00.035714287
8.00.00154621850.00.00.00728913020.00.00.00.035714287
8.17.2058826E-40.00.00.00503647750.00.00.00.0
8.22.8571428E-40.00.00.00318157950.00.00.00.0
8.36.512605E-50.00.00.00152370890.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Variability Duration Dependence

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Duration Dependence Plot

Download CSV Here

Duration (years)MeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
1.07.7679646.05.012.8560021.03.011.025.0
4.07.7679646.55.757.358423.04.510.021.0
8.07.76841556.6256.05.51584673.755.09.7518.875
12.07.7698726.755.83333354.6744634.16666655.259.58333317.5
16.07.76841556.8756.1254.12503624.3755.3759.62516.6875
20.07.7679646.956.053.75331124.555.59.5516.25
24.07.7659547.06.8753.47507724.70833355.6259.45833315.625
28.07.7641457.0357146.3571433.2184534.8214295.759.42857215.107142
32.07.7659547.093756.093753.0732324.906255.781259.4062514.6875
36.07.76744037.1388896.27777772.88184745.05.8611119.33333314.444445
40.07.7659547.156.2252.81012185.0755.9259.314.225
44.07.7688437.1818186.72727252.6483295.1590915.97727259.27272714.0
48.07.7659547.22916656.72916652.54089765.18756.02083359.22916713.625
52.07.76744037.2307696.7692312.4985045.2692316.03846179.19230713.442307
56.07.7758777.2678576.4821432.3474915.3571436.1071439.19642813.178572
60.07.7659547.28333337.03333332.2926515.3666676.1333339.16666713.233334
64.07.7758777.31256.7031252.27272875.4218756.18759.1562513.046875
68.07.7641457.32352926.8529412.18712885.44117646.19117649.11764712.926471
72.07.78967147.33333356.752.11589435.52777776.259.11111112.944445
76.07.77304367.34210547.1315792.09279445.56.259.07894712.671053
80.07.7659547.33757.06252.03509045.56.39.0512.575
84.07.7889077.38095247.33333351.94429375.5952386.3452389.01190512.464286
88.07.78268867.3756.86363651.93750855.63636356.35227259.01136412.340909
92.07.7723637.3804356.96739151.92513615.6195656.35869558.97826112.336957
96.07.7659547.3757.31251.88942365.656256.36458359.01041712.1875
100.07.7679647.397.471.84014145.686.419.012.05
200.07.78779277.5257.4851.31029246.126.758.76510.585
300.07.81253677.687.681.00029676.37666656.90666688.64333310.16
400.07.78779277.64257.65750.9294946.53256.9658.5659.7825
500.07.7679647.6267.4440.866219046.5426.9988.4749.85

Simulation Stationarity

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Stationarity Plot

Moment Rate Plot

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 313 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0423821.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0040740.708 (70.80%)[67.86% 73.58%]0.0017260.047238618
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0278941.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0010660.348 (34.80%)[31.86% 37.86%]4.44E-40.03419009
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0187941.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0017140.336 (33.60%)[30.69% 36.64%]6.96E-40.016211301
Mendocino0.0178861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.001140.388 (38.80%)[35.78% 41.91%]5.64E-40.028919645
Cerro Prieto0.0133881.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.0E-40.243 (24.30%)[21.70% 27.11%]2.7E-40.015186971
Imperial0.0117841.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.74E-40.223 (22.30%)[19.78% 25.04%]2.66E-40.014349225
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0110241.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.58E-40.187 (18.70%)[16.36% 21.29%]2.06E-40.013392845
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0094421.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.64E-40.205 (20.50%)[18.07% 23.16%]2.48E-40.009440966
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.00841.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]8.48E-40.278 (27.80%)[25.06% 30.71%]3.8E-40.008909097
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev0.0079120.985 (98.50%)[97.48% 99.13%]2.76E-40.082 (8.20%)[6.61% 10.12%]8.2E-50.008455746

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 306 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
Cerro Prieto0.0114121.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]7.04E-40.229 (22.90%)[20.35% 25.66%]2.48E-40.013091409
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0108781.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.58E-40.217 (21.70%)[19.21% 24.41%]2.38E-40.012216282
Mendocino0.0091280.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]7.56E-40.289 (28.90%)[26.13% 31.84%]3.62E-40.012516479
Imperial0.0082561.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.64E-40.153 (15.30%)[13.16% 17.72%]1.66E-40.0096799815
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0080280.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]4.6E-40.174 (17.40%)[15.13% 19.93%]1.94E-40.008140643
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0078921.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]3.4E-40.143 (14.30%)[12.22% 16.66%]1.44E-40.009075132
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0070960.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]5.36E-40.185 (18.50%)[16.17% 21.08%]2.32E-40.0067372364
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0069321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]4.7E-40.194 (19.40%)[17.02% 22.02%]2.26E-40.00821497
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0066240.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]3.68E-40.136 (13.60%)[11.57% 15.92%]1.28E-40.0067538084
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.006081.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.66E-40.209 (20.90%)[18.45% 23.58%]2.6E-40.006128417

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 273 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.006840.990 (99.00%)[98.10% 99.49%]4.1E-40.172 (17.20%)[14.94% 19.72%]1.8E-40.007612852
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0057161.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.22E-40.198 (19.80%)[17.40% 22.44%]2.44E-40.005722108
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0056721.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]5.04E-40.189 (18.90%)[16.55% 21.50%]2.42E-40.0057427646
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0054360.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]3.28E-40.142 (14.20%)[12.13% 16.55%]1.54E-40.0062776324
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0053820.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]4.08E-40.159 (15.90%)[13.72% 18.35%]1.92E-40.0052993274
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.004960.997 (99.70%)[99.05% 99.92%]4.02E-40.163 (16.30%)[14.09% 18.77%]1.86E-40.0051040766
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0047360.979 (97.90%)[96.75% 98.66%]2.88E-40.121 (12.10%)[10.18% 14.32%]1.14E-40.004749499
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0046740.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]3.52E-40.149 (14.90%)[12.78% 17.29%]1.64E-40.005556243
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.004610.993 (99.30%)[98.50% 99.69%]4.02E-40.165 (16.50%)[14.28% 18.98%]1.92E-40.0045623486
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0043680.956 (95.60%)[94.09% 96.75%]3.54E-40.147 (14.70%)[12.59% 17.08%]1.62E-40.004465195

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 209 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0048380.997 (99.70%)[99.05% 99.92%]4.0E-40.162 (16.20%)[14.00% 18.66%]1.86E-40.0049894005
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.004460.993 (99.30%)[98.50% 99.69%]3.94E-40.162 (16.20%)[14.00% 18.66%]1.88E-40.0044245115
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0044040.991 (99.10%)[98.23% 99.56%]3.28E-40.136 (13.60%)[11.57% 15.92%]1.58E-40.0045267143
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0042080.988 (98.80%)[97.85% 99.35%]3.68E-40.152 (15.20%)[13.06% 17.61%]1.8E-40.004201805
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0040280.981 (98.10%)[96.99% 98.82%]3.54E-40.148 (14.80%)[12.69% 17.19%]1.72E-40.0040264158
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.003690.984 (98.40%)[97.36% 99.05%]2.6E-40.118 (11.80%)[9.90% 14.00%]1.14E-40.0045710644
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0036340.945 (94.50%)[92.85% 95.79%]2.24E-40.097 (9.70%)[7.97% 11.75%]9.2E-50.0037959707
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0034160.886 (88.60%)[86.43% 90.47%]2.32E-40.107 (10.70%)[8.89% 12.82%]1.04E-40.0038110747
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0030940.893 (89.30%)[87.18% 91.11%]2.32E-40.101 (10.10%)[8.34% 12.18%]1.1E-40.0032088608
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM0.0030180.925 (92.50%)[90.65% 94.02%]2.02E-40.093 (9.30%)[7.61% 11.31%]9.8E-50.0035515025

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 61 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Mean Annual RateTriggered 500 Year ProbTriggered 500 Year 95% ConfTriggered Primary Mean Annual RateLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.001370.557 (55.70%)[52.56% 58.80%]8.2E-50.040 (4.00%)[2.91% 5.46%]3.8E-50.0018098651
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0013660.555 (55.50%)[52.35% 58.60%]8.4E-50.041 (4.10%)[2.99% 5.57%]4.0E-50.0017508415
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.001360.552 (55.20%)[52.05% 58.31%]8.4E-50.041 (4.10%)[2.99% 5.57%]4.0E-50.0017453934
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.001350.551 (55.10%)[51.95% 58.21%]8.6E-50.042 (4.20%)[3.08% 5.69%]4.0E-50.0017193216
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0013460.550 (55.00%)[51.85% 58.11%]8.2E-50.040 (4.00%)[2.91% 5.46%]3.8E-50.0017636013
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.001290.534 (53.40%)[50.25% 56.52%]8.0E-50.039 (3.90%)[2.82% 5.34%]3.6E-50.0016807786
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.001180.492 (49.20%)[46.06% 52.35%]7.0E-50.034 (3.40%)[2.40% 4.77%]3.4E-50.0015122787
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0010720.452 (45.20%)[42.09% 48.35%]6.8E-50.033 (3.30%)[2.32% 4.66%]3.4E-50.0014250289
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM7.38E-40.330 (33.00%)[30.11% 36.03%]4.2E-50.021 (2.10%)[1.34% 3.25%]1.8E-50.0010319632
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM6.36E-40.292 (29.20%)[26.42% 32.14%]3.4E-50.017 (1.70%)[1.03% 2.77%]1.6E-59.2652056E-4

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term ModelTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 1000,
  "duration": 500.0,
  "startYear": 2012,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 123456789,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_triggered_descendants",
      "descendantsOnly": true
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV\u003d1.5, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2019_10_29-Start2012_500yr_kCOV1p5_Spontaneous_HistoricalCatalog",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.14,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "etas_k_cov": 1.5,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.5 --random-seed 123456789 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec",
  "configTime": 1572354013349
}