ComCat data 5.7 yr between historical and 2018-01-01, Statewide, Point Sources, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog Results

ComCat data 5.7 yr between historical and 2018-01-01, Statewide, Point Sources, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog
Num Simulations10000
Start Time2018/01/01 00:00:01 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1514764801000
Duration10 Years
Includes Spontaneous?true
Trigger Ruptures6246 Trigger Ruptures
First: M2.54 at 2012/04/24 19:45:59 UTC
Last: M2.6 at 2017/12/31 14:29:31 UTC
Largest: M6.8 at 2014/03/10 05:18:13 UTC
Trigger Ruptures60415 Trigger Ruptures
First: M7.3 at 1852/01/05 04:40:39 UTC
Last: M3.31 at 2012/04/24 19:44:09 UTC
Largest: M7.9 at 1857/01/09 16:25:39 UTC
Config Generated Withu3etas_comcat_config_builder.sh --start-after-historical --end-date 2018-01-01 --historical-catalog --include-spontaneous --num-simulations 10000 --finite-surf-shakemap --finite-surf-shakemap-min-mag 6 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec

Table Of Contents

Probabilities Summary Table

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Probabilities Summary Table, Including Spontaneous

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Magnitude1 Hour Prob1 Day Prob1 Week Prob1 Month Prob1 Year Prob10 Year Prob
M≥43.60E-3 (0.36%)0.094 (9.42%)0.519 (51.89%)0.956 (95.61%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf[0.26% 0.50%][8.86% 10.01%][50.91% 52.87%][95.19% 96.00%][99.95% 100.00%][99.95% 100.00%]
M≥4.51.00E-3 (0.10%)0.031 (3.11%)0.220 (21.98%)0.650 (65.04%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf[0.05% 0.19%][2.78% 3.47%][21.17% 22.81%][64.09% 65.97%][99.95% 100.00%][99.95% 100.00%]
M≥54.00E-4 (0.04%)0.012 (1.18%)0.082 (8.24%)0.301 (30.14%)0.988 (98.82%)1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf[0.01% 0.11%][0.98% 1.42%][7.71% 8.80%][29.24% 31.05%][98.58% 99.02%][99.95% 100.00%]
M≥5.51.00E-4 (0.01%)4.30E-3 (0.43%)0.032 (3.21%)0.119 (11.89%)0.787 (78.71%)1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf[0.00% 0.06%][0.32% 0.58%][2.88% 3.58%][11.27% 12.54%][77.89% 79.51%][99.95% 100.00%]
M≥60.000 (0.00%)1.70E-3 (0.17%)0.011 (1.13%)0.043 (4.28%)0.436 (43.59%)0.997 (99.66%)
95% Conf[0.00% 0.05%][0.10% 0.28%][0.94% 1.36%][3.90% 4.70%][42.62% 44.57%][99.52% 99.76%]
M≥6.50.000 (0.00%)1.00E-3 (0.10%)4.50E-3 (0.45%)0.016 (1.56%)0.179 (17.94%)0.870 (86.96%)
95% Conf[0.00% 0.05%][0.05% 0.19%][0.33% 0.61%][1.33% 1.83%][17.20% 18.71%][86.28% 87.61%]
M≥70.000 (0.00%)2.00E-4 (0.02%)1.80E-3 (0.18%)6.00E-3 (0.60%)0.060 (5.99%)0.469 (46.90%)
95% Conf[0.00% 0.05%][0.00% 0.08%][0.11% 0.29%][0.46% 0.78%][5.54% 6.48%][45.92% 47.88%]
M≥7.50.000 (0.00%)0.000 (0.00%)5.00E-4 (0.05%)1.90E-3 (0.19%)0.014 (1.37%)0.136 (13.63%)
95% Conf[0.00% 0.05%][0.00% 0.05%][0.02% 0.12%][0.12% 0.30%][1.16% 1.62%][12.97% 14.32%]
M≥7.90.000 (0.00%)0.000 (0.00%)0.000 (0.00%)5.00E-4 (0.05%)2.50E-3 (0.25%)0.032 (3.17%)
95% Conf[0.00% 0.05%][0.00% 0.05%][0.00% 0.05%][0.02% 0.12%][0.17% 0.37%][2.84% 3.54%]
M≥80.000 (0.00%)0.000 (0.00%)0.000 (0.00%)5.00E-4 (0.05%)1.60E-3 (0.16%)0.016 (1.62%)
95% Conf[0.00% 0.05%][0.00% 0.05%][0.00% 0.05%][0.02% 0.12%][0.09% 0.27%][1.39% 1.89%]

Probabilities Summary Table, Triggered Only

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Magnitude1 Hour Prob1 Day Prob1 Week Prob1 Month Prob1 Year Prob10 Year Prob
M≥41.00E-3 (0.10%)0.027 (2.73%)0.178 (17.77%)0.531 (53.13%)1.000 (99.99%)1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf[0.05% 0.19%][2.42% 3.07%][17.03% 18.54%][52.15% 54.11%][99.94% 100.00%][99.95% 100.00%]
M≥4.54.00E-4 (0.04%)8.80E-3 (0.88%)0.064 (6.35%)0.220 (22.02%)0.934 (93.43%)1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf[0.01% 0.11%][0.71% 1.09%][5.88% 6.85%][21.21% 22.85%][92.92% 93.90%][99.95% 100.00%]
M≥52.00E-4 (0.02%)4.30E-3 (0.43%)0.024 (2.41%)0.084 (8.42%)0.602 (60.21%)0.999 (99.92%)
95% Conf[0.00% 0.08%][0.32% 0.58%][2.12% 2.73%][7.89% 8.99%][59.24% 61.17%][99.84% 99.96%]
M≥5.50.000 (0.00%)1.20E-3 (0.12%)9.00E-3 (0.90%)0.031 (3.08%)0.270 (27.03%)0.911 (91.09%)
95% Conf[0.00% 0.05%][0.07% 0.22%][0.73% 1.11%][2.75% 3.44%][26.16% 27.91%][90.51% 91.64%]
M≥60.000 (0.00%)9.00E-4 (0.09%)3.80E-3 (0.38%)0.010 (1.04%)0.109 (10.93%)0.579 (57.94%)
95% Conf[0.00% 0.05%][0.04% 0.18%][0.27% 0.53%][0.85% 1.26%][10.33% 11.56%][56.96% 58.91%]
M≥6.50.000 (0.00%)4.00E-4 (0.04%)1.60E-3 (0.16%)4.10E-3 (0.41%)0.037 (3.75%)0.256 (25.55%)
95% Conf[0.00% 0.05%][0.01% 0.11%][0.09% 0.27%][0.30% 0.56%][3.39% 4.15%][24.70% 26.42%]
M≥70.000 (0.00%)0.000 (0.00%)6.00E-4 (0.06%)1.70E-3 (0.17%)0.012 (1.23%)0.094 (9.42%)
95% Conf[0.00% 0.05%][0.00% 0.05%][0.02% 0.14%][0.10% 0.28%][1.03% 1.47%][8.86% 10.01%]
M≥7.50.000 (0.00%)0.000 (0.00%)1.00E-4 (0.01%)5.00E-4 (0.05%)2.40E-3 (0.24%)0.022 (2.19%)
95% Conf[0.00% 0.05%][0.00% 0.05%][0.00% 0.06%][0.02% 0.12%][0.16% 0.36%][1.92% 2.50%]
M≥7.90.000 (0.00%)0.000 (0.00%)0.000 (0.00%)3.00E-4 (0.03%)5.00E-4 (0.05%)5.60E-3 (0.56%)
95% Conf[0.00% 0.05%][0.00% 0.05%][0.00% 0.05%][0.01% 0.10%][0.02% 0.12%][0.43% 0.73%]
M≥80.000 (0.00%)0.000 (0.00%)0.000 (0.00%)3.00E-4 (0.03%)4.00E-4 (0.04%)2.90E-3 (0.29%)
95% Conf[0.00% 0.05%][0.00% 0.05%][0.00% 0.05%][0.01% 0.10%][0.01% 0.11%][0.20% 0.42%]

Magnitude Number Distribution

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10 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

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10 Year Magnitude Number Distribution, Including Spontaneous

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Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode10 yr Probability10 yr Prob 95% Conf10 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥2.525116.05616573.00051305.00022346.00018665.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥2.619949.51713180.00040696.00017740.00015785.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥2.715846.77210462.00032356.00014097.00011783.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥2.812588.0998304.00025717.00011199.0009283.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥2.99998.9686593.00020387.0008897.0007819.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥37942.6425234.00016219.0007074.0006179.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥3.16308.4564154.00012870.0005618.0004945.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥3.25010.8533298.00010225.0004464.0003995.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥3.33980.7652608.0008122.0003546.0003256.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥3.43161.9292068.0006434.0002816.0002478.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥3.52511.4791640.0005112.0002237.0002080.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥3.61995.0491298.0004085.0001779.0001512.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥3.71584.6111028.0003239.0001414.0001188.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥3.81258.838814.0002571.0001124.000963.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥3.9999.703643.0002044.000893.000753.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥4794.016507.0001616.000709.000589.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥4.1630.540401.0001288.000564.000473.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥4.2500.978315.0001024.000449.000365.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥4.3397.811247.000814.000357.000314.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥4.4315.821194.000645.000284.000245.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥4.5250.797152.000511.000226.000195.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥4.6199.220119.000407.000180.000165.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥4.7158.11793.000321.000143.000117.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥4.8125.51172.000256.000114.00094.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥4.999.60856.000203.00090.00078.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥579.03543.000162.00072.00062.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥5.162.64533.000128.00057.00049.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥5.249.65225.000101.00045.00039.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥5.339.34119.00080.00036.00031.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥5.431.14414.00064.00029.00024.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥5.524.64410.00051.00023.00020.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥5.619.4868.00041.00018.00017.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥5.715.3506.00032.00014.00012.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.51%)
M≥5.812.0884.00025.00011.00010.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.975 (97.50%)
M≥5.99.3603.00020.0009.0007.0000.999 (99.89%)[99.80% 99.94%]0.972 (97.15%)
M≥67.5442.00016.0007.0006.0000.997 (99.66%)[99.52% 99.76%]0.967 (96.73%)
M≥6.15.8991.00013.0005.0005.0000.992 (99.15%)[98.94% 99.32%]0.950 (94.99%)
M≥6.24.7021.00011.0004.0004.0000.980 (97.95%)[97.65% 98.21%]0.927 (92.74%)
M≥6.33.7280.0009.0003.0003.0000.957 (95.66%)[95.24% 96.05%]0.897 (89.75%)
M≥6.42.9200.0007.0003.0002.0000.923 (92.31%)[91.77% 92.82%]0.854 (85.41%)
M≥6.52.2710.0006.0002.0002.0000.870 (86.96%)[86.28% 87.61%]0.796 (79.63%)
M≥6.61.7910.0005.0002.0001.0000.808 (80.84%)[80.05% 81.60%]0.739 (73.87%)
M≥6.71.3770.0004.0001.0001.0000.724 (72.35%)[71.46% 73.22%]0.658 (65.80%)
M≥6.81.0730.0004.0001.0000.0000.639 (63.92%)[62.97% 64.86%]0.583 (58.31%)
M≥6.90.8360.0003.0001.0000.0000.552 (55.25%)[54.27% 56.23%]0.506 (50.59%)
M≥70.6570.0003.0000.0000.0000.469 (46.90%)[45.92% 47.88%]0.435 (43.49%)
M≥7.10.4990.0002.0000.0000.0000.385 (38.52%)[37.57% 39.48%]0.361 (36.11%)
M≥7.20.3740.0002.0000.0000.0000.309 (30.89%)[29.99% 31.81%]0.296 (29.57%)
M≥7.30.2930.0002.0000.0000.0000.253 (25.26%)[24.41% 26.13%]0.246 (24.56%)
M≥7.40.2140.0001.0000.0000.0000.192 (19.22%)[18.45% 20.01%]0.190 (19.00%)
M≥7.50.1460.0001.0000.0000.0000.136 (13.63%)[12.97% 14.32%]0.135 (13.54%)
M≥7.60.1100.0001.0000.0000.0000.105 (10.50%)[9.91% 11.12%]0.104 (10.45%)
M≥7.70.0740.0001.0000.0000.0000.073 (7.31%)[6.81% 7.84%]0.073 (7.30%)
M≥7.80.0560.0001.0000.0000.0000.055 (5.54%)[5.10% 6.01%]0.055 (5.54%)
M≥7.90.0320.0001.0000.0000.0000.032 (3.17%)[2.84% 3.54%]0.032 (3.17%)
M≥80.0160.0000.0000.0000.0000.016 (1.62%)[1.39% 1.89%]0.016 (1.62%)
M≥8.15.50E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.50E-3 (0.55%)[0.42% 0.72%]5.50E-3 (0.55%)
M≥8.21.60E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.60E-3 (0.16%)[0.09% 0.27%]1.60E-3 (0.16%)
M≥8.31.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)

10 Year Magnitude Number Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

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Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode10 yr Probability10 yr Prob 95% Conf10 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.53977.5742219.00012421.0002954.0002611.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.454 (45.42%)1531.016
M≥2.63159.8901755.0009855.0002350.0001917.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.454 (45.42%)1216.399
M≥2.72509.9191391.0007840.0001866.0001551.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.454 (45.42%)966.108
M≥2.81993.8481099.0006214.0001484.0001208.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.454 (45.42%)767.401
M≥2.91583.718870.0004939.0001179.000983.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.454 (45.42%)609.676
M≥31258.042686.0003927.000938.000791.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.454 (45.42%)484.341
M≥3.1999.085542.0003107.000745.000657.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.454 (45.42%)384.634
M≥3.2793.454428.0002491.000593.000529.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.454 (45.42%)305.401
M≥3.3630.272336.0001989.000471.000422.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.454 (45.42%)242.613
M≥3.4500.669265.0001579.000375.000339.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.454 (45.42%)192.785
M≥3.5397.702207.0001252.000298.000264.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.454 (45.42%)153.158
M≥3.6315.977162.000995.000237.000215.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.454 (45.42%)121.777
M≥3.7251.022126.000793.000189.000154.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.454 (45.42%)96.746
M≥3.8199.47199.000629.000150.000140.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.454 (45.42%)76.968
M≥3.9158.37077.000499.000120.000107.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.454 (45.42%)61.107
M≥4125.72059.000398.00095.00084.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.454 (45.42%)48.479
M≥4.199.84745.000318.00076.00060.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.454 (45.42%)38.501
M≥4.279.27734.000255.00061.00051.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.454 (45.42%)30.569
M≥4.362.90326.000201.00048.00039.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.454 (45.42%)24.270
M≥4.449.93020.000161.00038.00033.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.454 (45.42%)19.300
M≥4.539.59915.000126.00030.00026.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.454 (45.42%)15.303
M≥4.631.41411.000102.00024.00021.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.454 (45.42%)12.171
M≥4.724.8948.00081.00019.00014.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.454 (45.42%)9.675
M≥4.819.7226.00064.00015.00012.0001.000 (99.98%)[99.92% 100.00%]0.454 (45.42%)7.680
M≥4.915.6214.00051.00012.00010.0001.000 (99.95%)[99.88% 99.98%]0.454 (45.42%)6.108
M≥512.3723.00040.00010.0008.0000.999 (99.92%)[99.84% 99.96%]0.454 (45.42%)4.857
M≥5.19.7752.00033.0008.0005.0000.995 (99.53%)[99.37% 99.65%]0.454 (45.42%)3.873
M≥5.27.7361.00026.0006.0004.0000.989 (98.89%)[98.66% 99.08%]0.454 (45.42%)3.082
M≥5.36.1171.00021.0005.0003.0000.976 (97.60%)[97.28% 97.89%]0.454 (45.42%)2.465
M≥5.44.8320.00017.0004.0002.0000.952 (95.15%)[94.71% 95.56%]0.454 (45.42%)1.979
M≥5.53.8110.00014.0003.0002.0000.911 (91.09%)[90.51% 91.64%]0.454 (45.42%)1.585
M≥5.62.9960.00011.0002.0001.0000.860 (85.99%)[85.29% 86.66%]0.454 (45.42%)1.270
M≥5.72.3450.0009.0002.0001.0000.798 (79.84%)[79.04% 80.62%]0.454 (45.40%)1.020
M≥5.81.8390.0007.0001.0001.0000.732 (73.15%)[72.27% 74.01%]0.454 (45.39%)0.828
M≥5.91.3890.0006.0001.0000.0000.646 (64.58%)[63.63% 65.52%]0.427 (42.75%)0.649
M≥61.1110.0005.0001.0000.0000.579 (57.94%)[56.96% 58.91%]0.411 (41.10%)0.530
M≥6.10.8560.0004.0000.0000.0000.495 (49.54%)[48.56% 50.52%]0.362 (36.19%)0.414
M≥6.20.6920.0003.0000.0000.0000.433 (43.29%)[42.32% 44.27%]0.335 (33.48%)0.342
M≥6.30.5520.0003.0000.0000.0000.373 (37.31%)[36.36% 38.27%]0.299 (29.89%)0.280
M≥6.40.4290.0002.0000.0000.0000.312 (31.18%)[30.27% 32.10%]0.255 (25.51%)0.217
M≥6.50.3340.0002.0000.0000.0000.256 (25.55%)[24.70% 26.42%]0.213 (21.32%)0.173
M≥6.60.2700.0002.0000.0000.0000.217 (21.69%)[20.89% 22.51%]0.185 (18.54%)0.142
M≥6.70.2050.0002.0000.0000.0000.172 (17.18%)[16.45% 17.94%]0.148 (14.80%)0.108
M≥6.80.1610.0001.0000.0000.0000.139 (13.93%)[13.26% 14.63%]0.123 (12.26%)0.087
M≥6.90.1280.0001.0000.0000.0000.114 (11.42%)[10.81% 12.06%]0.103 (10.32%)0.070
M≥70.1040.0001.0000.0000.0000.094 (9.42%)[8.86% 10.01%]0.086 (8.62%)0.058
M≥7.10.0780.0001.0000.0000.0000.072 (7.17%)[6.68% 7.70%]0.067 (6.67%)0.044
M≥7.20.0590.0001.0000.0000.0000.055 (5.47%)[5.04% 5.94%]0.052 (5.23%)0.033
M≥7.30.0460.0001.0000.0000.0000.044 (4.38%)[3.99% 4.80%]0.043 (4.27%)0.026
M≥7.40.0340.0001.0000.0000.0000.033 (3.26%)[2.92% 3.63%]0.033 (3.25%)0.019
M≥7.50.0230.0000.0000.0000.0000.022 (2.19%)[1.92% 2.50%]0.022 (2.19%)0.012
M≥7.60.0170.0000.0000.0000.0000.016 (1.64%)[1.40% 1.91%]0.016 (1.64%)9.10E-3
M≥7.70.0120.0000.0000.0000.0000.012 (1.21%)[1.01% 1.45%]0.012 (1.21%)7.20E-3
M≥7.89.80E-30.0000.0000.0000.0009.80E-3 (0.98%)[0.80% 1.20%]9.80E-3 (0.98%)5.90E-3
M≥7.95.60E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.60E-3 (0.56%)[0.43% 0.73%]5.60E-3 (0.56%)3.10E-3
M≥82.90E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.90E-3 (0.29%)[0.20% 0.42%]2.90E-3 (0.29%)1.80E-3
M≥8.17.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0007.00E-4 (0.07%)[0.03% 0.15%]7.00E-4 (0.07%)6.00E-4
M≥8.22.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)1.00E-4
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

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1 Year Magnitude Number Distribution, Including Spontaneous

(top)

Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 yr Probability1 yr Prob 95% Conf1 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥2.52279.4621347.0007053.0001704.0001477.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥2.61810.4551067.0005607.0001354.0001167.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥2.71438.029841.0004456.0001076.000931.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥2.81142.218665.0003533.000856.000760.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥2.9907.391525.0002823.000680.000642.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥3720.736414.0002242.000541.000495.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥3.1572.431326.0001770.000430.000394.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥3.2454.738256.0001410.000343.000300.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥3.3361.286201.0001119.000272.000249.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥3.4286.988157.000888.000217.000195.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥3.5227.952122.000703.000173.000147.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥3.6181.06695.000560.000137.000120.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥3.7143.79573.000446.000110.00093.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥3.8114.28557.000355.00087.00075.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥3.990.77044.000283.00070.00061.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥472.16033.000225.00055.00051.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥4.157.35425.000179.00044.00038.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥4.245.57719.000140.00035.00031.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥4.336.20214.000112.00028.00024.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥4.428.73010.00089.00022.00020.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥4.522.8497.00070.00018.00015.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥4.618.1445.00058.00014.00011.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥4.714.3894.00046.00011.0009.0001.000 (99.98%)[99.92% 100.00%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥4.811.3903.00036.0009.0007.0000.999 (99.85%)[99.75% 99.91%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥4.99.0352.00030.0007.0005.0000.996 (99.61%)[99.46% 99.72%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥57.1541.00024.0005.0004.0000.988 (98.82%)[98.58% 99.02%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥5.15.6920.00019.0004.0003.0000.972 (97.20%)[96.85% 97.51%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥5.24.5160.00016.0003.0003.0000.946 (94.59%)[94.12% 95.02%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥5.33.5760.00013.0003.0002.0000.904 (90.44%)[89.84% 91.01%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥5.42.8310.00011.0002.0001.0000.850 (85.03%)[84.31% 85.72%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥5.52.2470.0009.0002.0001.0000.787 (78.71%)[77.89% 79.51%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥5.61.7860.0007.0001.0001.0000.718 (71.79%)[70.89% 72.67%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥5.71.4160.0006.0001.0000.0000.644 (64.40%)[63.45% 65.34%]0.306 (30.58%)
M≥5.81.1220.0005.0001.0000.0000.570 (57.04%)[56.06% 58.01%]0.306 (30.56%)
M≥5.90.8700.0004.0000.0000.0000.494 (49.43%)[48.45% 50.41%]0.293 (29.32%)
M≥60.7090.0004.0000.0000.0000.436 (43.59%)[42.62% 44.57%]0.284 (28.36%)
M≥6.10.5570.0003.0000.0000.0000.369 (36.91%)[35.96% 37.87%]0.251 (25.14%)
M≥6.20.4470.0003.0000.0000.0000.317 (31.73%)[30.82% 32.65%]0.229 (22.91%)
M≥6.30.3580.0002.0000.0000.0000.268 (26.78%)[25.92% 27.66%]0.202 (20.15%)
M≥6.40.2780.0002.0000.0000.0000.220 (22.00%)[21.19% 22.83%]0.170 (17.03%)
M≥6.50.2190.0002.0000.0000.0000.179 (17.94%)[17.20% 18.71%]0.143 (14.29%)
M≥6.60.1730.0001.0000.0000.0000.147 (14.75%)[14.06% 15.46%]0.122 (12.18%)
M≥6.70.1340.0001.0000.0000.0000.117 (11.71%)[11.09% 12.36%]0.099 (9.93%)
M≥6.80.1050.0001.0000.0000.0000.093 (9.33%)[8.77% 9.92%]0.082 (8.17%)
M≥6.90.0830.0001.0000.0000.0000.076 (7.59%)[7.08% 8.13%]0.068 (6.75%)
M≥70.0640.0001.0000.0000.0000.060 (5.99%)[5.54% 6.48%]0.054 (5.43%)
M≥7.10.0490.0001.0000.0000.0000.047 (4.66%)[4.26% 5.10%]0.043 (4.30%)
M≥7.20.0370.0001.0000.0000.0000.035 (3.53%)[3.18% 3.92%]0.034 (3.40%)
M≥7.30.0280.0001.0000.0000.0000.027 (2.73%)[2.42% 3.07%]0.027 (2.69%)
M≥7.40.0210.0000.0000.0000.0000.020 (2.01%)[1.75% 2.31%]0.020 (2.01%)
M≥7.50.0140.0000.0000.0000.0000.014 (1.37%)[1.16% 1.62%]0.014 (1.37%)
M≥7.60.0110.0000.0000.0000.0000.011 (1.13%)[0.94% 1.36%]0.011 (1.13%)
M≥7.77.40E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.30E-3 (0.73%)[0.58% 0.92%]7.30E-3 (0.73%)
M≥7.85.30E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.30E-3 (0.53%)[0.40% 0.70%]5.30E-3 (0.53%)
M≥7.92.50E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.50E-3 (0.25%)[0.17% 0.37%]2.50E-3 (0.25%)
M≥81.60E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.60E-3 (0.16%)[0.09% 0.27%]1.60E-3 (0.16%)
M≥8.16.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0006.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.02% 0.14%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)
M≥8.22.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)

1 Year Magnitude Number Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

(top)

Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 yr Probability1 yr Prob 95% Conf1 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5477.168246.0001540.000322.000292.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.075 (7.48%)216.548
M≥2.6379.018193.0001220.000256.000238.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.075 (7.48%)172.001
M≥2.7301.052150.000974.000204.000194.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.075 (7.48%)136.537
M≥2.8239.046117.000787.000162.000151.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.075 (7.48%)108.406
M≥2.9189.92391.000618.000129.000116.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.075 (7.48%)86.128
M≥3150.86271.000494.000103.00092.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.075 (7.48%)68.456
M≥3.1119.79055.000395.00082.00076.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.075 (7.48%)54.361
M≥3.295.19542.000314.00065.00058.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.075 (7.48%)43.205
M≥3.375.62232.000249.00052.00047.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.075 (7.48%)34.313
M≥3.460.06424.000196.00041.00036.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.075 (7.48%)27.278
M≥3.547.72418.000156.00033.00030.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.075 (7.48%)21.657
M≥3.637.92014.000125.00026.00024.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.075 (7.48%)17.199
M≥3.730.09610.000100.00021.00018.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.075 (7.48%)13.656
M≥3.823.9417.00080.00017.00014.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.075 (7.48%)10.885
M≥3.919.0135.00064.00013.00011.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.075 (7.48%)8.636
M≥415.1343.00052.00010.0009.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.94% 100.00%]0.075 (7.48%)6.872
M≥4.112.0432.00042.0008.0008.0000.999 (99.88%)[99.78% 99.93%]0.075 (7.48%)5.465
M≥4.29.5651.00033.0006.0005.0000.995 (99.46%)[99.29% 99.59%]0.075 (7.48%)4.343
M≥4.37.5981.00027.0005.0004.0000.985 (98.48%)[98.22% 98.71%]0.075 (7.48%)3.453
M≥4.46.0260.00022.0004.0003.0000.967 (96.65%)[96.27% 96.99%]0.075 (7.48%)2.745
M≥4.54.7840.00018.0003.0002.0000.934 (93.43%)[92.92% 93.90%]0.075 (7.48%)2.175
M≥4.63.8080.00015.0002.0001.0000.889 (88.95%)[88.32% 89.55%]0.075 (7.48%)1.736
M≥4.73.0170.00012.0002.0001.0000.835 (83.47%)[82.72% 84.19%]0.075 (7.48%)1.380
M≥4.82.3850.00010.0001.0001.0000.756 (75.65%)[74.79% 76.49%]0.075 (7.48%)1.090
M≥4.91.8960.0008.0001.0000.0000.679 (67.90%)[66.97% 68.81%]0.075 (7.48%)0.869
M≥51.4930.0007.0001.0000.0000.602 (60.21%)[59.24% 61.17%]0.075 (7.48%)0.691
M≥5.11.1790.0006.0001.0000.0000.523 (52.27%)[51.29% 53.25%]0.075 (7.48%)0.551
M≥5.20.9280.0005.0000.0000.0000.447 (44.71%)[43.73% 45.69%]0.075 (7.48%)0.435
M≥5.30.7400.0004.0000.0000.0000.383 (38.25%)[37.30% 39.21%]0.075 (7.48%)0.350
M≥5.40.5830.0004.0000.0000.0000.324 (32.35%)[31.44% 33.28%]0.075 (7.48%)0.279
M≥5.50.4620.0003.0000.0000.0000.270 (27.03%)[26.16% 27.91%]0.075 (7.48%)0.223
M≥5.60.3670.0003.0000.0000.0000.228 (22.80%)[21.98% 23.64%]0.075 (7.48%)0.179
M≥5.70.2900.0002.0000.0000.0000.190 (18.96%)[18.20% 19.75%]0.075 (7.48%)0.143
M≥5.80.2300.0002.0000.0000.0000.160 (16.01%)[15.30% 16.75%]0.075 (7.48%)0.117
M≥5.90.1760.0002.0000.0000.0000.130 (12.97%)[12.32% 13.65%]0.070 (6.95%)0.092
M≥60.1430.0001.0000.0000.0000.109 (10.93%)[10.33% 11.56%]0.066 (6.61%)0.076
M≥6.10.1120.0001.0000.0000.0000.088 (8.78%)[8.24% 9.36%]0.057 (5.71%)0.060
M≥6.20.0920.0001.0000.0000.0000.074 (7.40%)[6.90% 7.93%]0.053 (5.28%)0.051
M≥6.30.0730.0001.0000.0000.0000.061 (6.11%)[5.65% 6.60%]0.046 (4.61%)0.042
M≥6.40.0570.0001.0000.0000.0000.048 (4.81%)[4.40% 5.25%]0.037 (3.73%)0.032
M≥6.50.0440.0001.0000.0000.0000.037 (3.75%)[3.39% 4.15%]0.031 (3.06%)0.025
M≥6.60.0360.0001.0000.0000.0000.032 (3.17%)[2.84% 3.54%]0.027 (2.68%)0.022
M≥6.70.0270.0000.0000.0000.0000.024 (2.41%)[2.12% 2.73%]0.021 (2.10%)0.017
M≥6.80.0210.0000.0000.0000.0000.019 (1.94%)[1.68% 2.23%]0.018 (1.75%)0.013
M≥6.90.0170.0000.0000.0000.0000.016 (1.61%)[1.38% 1.88%]0.015 (1.47%)0.011
M≥70.0130.0000.0000.0000.0000.012 (1.23%)[1.03% 1.47%]0.011 (1.13%)8.40E-3
M≥7.10.0100.0000.0000.0000.0009.70E-3 (0.97%)[0.79% 1.19%]9.00E-3 (0.90%)6.20E-3
M≥7.27.20E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.10E-3 (0.71%)[0.56% 0.90%]6.90E-3 (0.69%)4.30E-3
M≥7.35.40E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.40E-3 (0.54%)[0.41% 0.71%]5.30E-3 (0.53%)3.20E-3
M≥7.43.80E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.80E-3 (0.38%)[0.27% 0.53%]3.80E-3 (0.38%)2.30E-3
M≥7.52.40E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.40E-3 (0.24%)[0.16% 0.36%]2.40E-3 (0.24%)1.30E-3
M≥7.62.00E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-3 (0.20%)[0.13% 0.31%]2.00E-3 (0.20%)1.00E-3
M≥7.71.10E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.10E-3 (0.11%)[0.06% 0.20%]1.10E-3 (0.11%)6.00E-4
M≥7.88.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0008.00E-4 (0.08%)[0.04% 0.16%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)4.00E-4
M≥7.95.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)2.00E-4
M≥84.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.01% 0.11%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)2.00E-4
M≥8.12.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)1.00E-4
M≥8.21.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Month Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

1 Month Magnitude Number Distribution, Including Spontaneous

(top)

Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 mo Probability1 mo Prob 95% Conf1 mo Supra-Seis Prob
M≥2.5171.86884.000417.000115.000111.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥2.6136.45365.000334.00092.00086.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥2.7108.39250.000265.00073.00067.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥2.886.03338.000210.00058.00053.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥2.968.32029.000168.00046.00042.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥354.23022.000135.00037.00034.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥3.143.07816.000108.00029.00025.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥3.234.21412.00087.00023.00020.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥3.327.1929.00071.00018.00016.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥3.421.5956.00056.00015.00013.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥3.517.1614.00044.00012.0009.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥3.613.6303.00036.0009.0007.0001.000 (99.96%)[99.89% 99.99%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥3.710.8342.00029.0007.0006.0000.998 (99.77%)[99.65% 99.85%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥3.88.6141.00023.0006.0004.0000.992 (99.24%)[99.04% 99.40%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥3.96.8301.00019.0005.0004.0000.980 (97.97%)[97.67% 98.23%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥45.4260.00015.0004.0002.0000.956 (95.61%)[95.19% 96.00%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥4.14.3170.00013.0003.0002.0000.917 (91.67%)[91.11% 92.20%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥4.23.4260.00011.0002.0001.0000.871 (87.06%)[86.38% 87.71%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥4.32.7320.0009.0002.0001.0000.806 (80.63%)[79.84% 81.40%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥4.42.1680.0008.0001.0001.0000.729 (72.91%)[72.03% 73.78%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥4.51.7290.0007.0001.0000.0000.650 (65.04%)[64.09% 65.97%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥4.61.3750.0005.0001.0000.0000.577 (57.66%)[56.68% 58.63%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥4.71.0930.0005.0001.0000.0000.505 (50.51%)[49.53% 51.49%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥4.80.8550.0004.0000.0000.0000.425 (42.55%)[41.58% 43.53%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥4.90.6790.0003.0000.0000.0000.359 (35.95%)[35.01% 36.90%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥50.5400.0003.0000.0000.0000.301 (30.14%)[29.24% 31.05%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥5.10.4340.0003.0000.0000.0000.254 (25.37%)[24.52% 26.24%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥5.20.3440.0002.0000.0000.0000.208 (20.80%)[20.01% 21.61%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥5.30.2750.0002.0000.0000.0000.173 (17.26%)[16.53% 18.02%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥5.40.2200.0002.0000.0000.0000.144 (14.44%)[13.76% 15.15%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥5.50.1760.0002.0000.0000.0000.119 (11.89%)[11.27% 12.54%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥5.60.1380.0001.0000.0000.0000.097 (9.74%)[9.17% 10.34%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥5.70.1060.0001.0000.0000.0000.079 (7.87%)[7.35% 8.42%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥5.80.0850.0001.0000.0000.0000.065 (6.47%)[6.00% 6.97%]0.031 (3.09%)
M≥5.90.0670.0001.0000.0000.0000.052 (5.21%)[4.79% 5.67%]0.029 (2.95%)
M≥60.0530.0001.0000.0000.0000.043 (4.28%)[3.90% 4.70%]0.028 (2.82%)
M≥6.10.0400.0001.0000.0000.0000.033 (3.31%)[2.97% 3.68%]0.024 (2.35%)
M≥6.20.0330.0001.0000.0000.0000.028 (2.79%)[2.48% 3.14%]0.021 (2.10%)
M≥6.30.0270.0000.0000.0000.0000.023 (2.30%)[2.02% 2.62%]0.018 (1.82%)
M≥6.40.0230.0000.0000.0000.0000.020 (2.00%)[1.74% 2.30%]0.016 (1.62%)
M≥6.50.0180.0000.0000.0000.0000.016 (1.56%)[1.33% 1.83%]0.013 (1.32%)
M≥6.60.0130.0000.0000.0000.0000.012 (1.22%)[1.02% 1.46%]0.011 (1.08%)
M≥6.70.0100.0000.0000.0000.0009.40E-3 (0.94%)[0.76% 1.15%]8.40E-3 (0.84%)
M≥6.88.40E-30.0000.0000.0000.0008.30E-3 (0.83%)[0.67% 1.03%]7.60E-3 (0.76%)
M≥6.97.20E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.10E-3 (0.71%)[0.56% 0.90%]6.60E-3 (0.66%)
M≥76.00E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.00E-3 (0.60%)[0.46% 0.78%]5.70E-3 (0.57%)
M≥7.15.00E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.00E-3 (0.50%)[0.38% 0.66%]4.80E-3 (0.48%)
M≥7.23.50E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.50E-3 (0.35%)[0.25% 0.49%]3.40E-3 (0.34%)
M≥7.33.00E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.00E-3 (0.30%)[0.21% 0.43%]2.90E-3 (0.29%)
M≥7.42.40E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.40E-3 (0.24%)[0.16% 0.36%]2.40E-3 (0.24%)
M≥7.51.90E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.90E-3 (0.19%)[0.12% 0.30%]1.90E-3 (0.19%)
M≥7.61.20E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.20E-3 (0.12%)[0.07% 0.22%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥7.71.10E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.10E-3 (0.11%)[0.06% 0.20%]1.10E-3 (0.11%)
M≥7.89.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0009.00E-4 (0.09%)[0.04% 0.18%]9.00E-4 (0.09%)
M≥7.95.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)
M≥85.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)
M≥8.12.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)
M≥8.21.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)

1 Month Magnitude Number Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

(top)

Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 mo Probability1 mo Prob 95% Conf1 mo Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.545.62915.00092.00027.00024.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)21.453
M≥2.636.23011.00074.00021.00019.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)17.033
M≥2.728.7448.00058.00017.00015.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)13.513
M≥2.822.8376.00047.00013.00012.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)10.738
M≥2.918.1544.00038.00011.0009.0001.000 (99.98%)[99.92% 100.00%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)8.535
M≥314.3933.00030.0008.0007.0000.999 (99.91%)[99.82% 99.96%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)6.758
M≥3.111.4302.00025.0007.0005.0000.996 (99.62%)[99.47% 99.73%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)5.368
M≥3.29.0661.00020.0005.0004.0000.988 (98.76%)[98.52% 98.96%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)4.247
M≥3.37.2210.00016.0004.0003.0000.971 (97.14%)[96.79% 97.45%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)3.386
M≥3.45.7310.00014.0003.0002.0000.943 (94.25%)[93.77% 94.69%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)2.683
M≥3.54.5600.00011.0002.0002.0000.898 (89.82%)[89.21% 90.40%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)2.130
M≥3.63.6270.0009.0002.0001.0000.839 (83.89%)[83.15% 84.60%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)1.693
M≥3.72.8630.0008.0001.0001.0000.768 (76.80%)[75.96% 77.62%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)1.343
M≥3.82.2780.0007.0001.0000.0000.687 (68.74%)[67.82% 69.65%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)1.071
M≥3.91.8070.0006.0001.0000.0000.609 (60.87%)[59.90% 61.83%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)0.847
M≥41.4320.0005.0001.0000.0000.531 (53.13%)[52.15% 54.11%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)0.667
M≥4.11.1410.0004.0000.0000.0000.454 (45.37%)[44.39% 46.35%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)0.530
M≥4.20.9030.0004.0000.0000.0000.387 (38.74%)[37.78% 39.70%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)0.422
M≥4.30.7210.0003.0000.0000.0000.325 (32.54%)[31.62% 33.47%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)0.336
M≥4.40.5690.0003.0000.0000.0000.269 (26.87%)[26.01% 27.75%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)0.264
M≥4.50.4500.0002.0000.0000.0000.220 (22.02%)[21.21% 22.85%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)0.207
M≥4.60.3600.0002.0000.0000.0000.185 (18.46%)[17.71% 19.24%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)0.169
M≥4.70.2870.0002.0000.0000.0000.153 (15.31%)[14.61% 16.03%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)0.136
M≥4.80.2270.0002.0000.0000.0000.127 (12.67%)[12.03% 13.34%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)0.109
M≥4.90.1810.0001.0000.0000.0000.104 (10.39%)[9.80% 11.01%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)0.088
M≥50.1420.0001.0000.0000.0000.084 (8.42%)[7.89% 8.99%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)0.070
M≥5.10.1130.0001.0000.0000.0000.069 (6.91%)[6.42% 7.43%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)0.057
M≥5.20.0900.0001.0000.0000.0000.055 (5.52%)[5.08% 5.99%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)0.045
M≥5.30.0720.0001.0000.0000.0000.046 (4.62%)[4.22% 5.05%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)0.037
M≥5.40.0570.0001.0000.0000.0000.038 (3.79%)[3.43% 4.19%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)0.030
M≥5.50.0450.0001.0000.0000.0000.031 (3.08%)[2.75% 3.44%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)0.024
M≥5.60.0340.0000.0000.0000.0000.025 (2.45%)[2.16% 2.78%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)0.020
M≥5.70.0260.0000.0000.0000.0000.019 (1.91%)[1.65% 2.20%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)0.016
M≥5.80.0210.0000.0000.0000.0000.015 (1.54%)[1.31% 1.81%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)0.013
M≥5.90.0160.0000.0000.0000.0000.012 (1.24%)[1.04% 1.48%]7.40E-3 (0.74%)0.011
M≥60.0130.0000.0000.0000.0000.010 (1.04%)[0.85% 1.26%]7.00E-3 (0.70%)9.00E-3
M≥6.19.70E-30.0000.0000.0000.0008.10E-3 (0.81%)[0.65% 1.01%]6.00E-3 (0.60%)6.70E-3
M≥6.28.50E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.10E-3 (0.71%)[0.56% 0.90%]5.40E-3 (0.54%)5.90E-3
M≥6.37.30E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.20E-3 (0.62%)[0.48% 0.80%]4.90E-3 (0.49%)5.00E-3
M≥6.46.40E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.40E-3 (0.54%)[0.41% 0.71%]4.50E-3 (0.45%)4.40E-3
M≥6.54.70E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.10E-3 (0.41%)[0.30% 0.56%]3.70E-3 (0.37%)3.20E-3
M≥6.63.50E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.30E-3 (0.33%)[0.23% 0.47%]3.10E-3 (0.31%)2.50E-3
M≥6.72.50E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.40E-3 (0.24%)[0.16% 0.36%]2.30E-3 (0.23%)1.70E-3
M≥6.82.30E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.30E-3 (0.23%)[0.15% 0.35%]2.30E-3 (0.23%)1.60E-3
M≥6.92.00E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-3 (0.20%)[0.13% 0.31%]2.00E-3 (0.20%)1.30E-3
M≥71.70E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.70E-3 (0.17%)[0.10% 0.28%]1.70E-3 (0.17%)1.20E-3
M≥7.11.40E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.40E-3 (0.14%)[0.08% 0.24%]1.40E-3 (0.14%)1.10E-3
M≥7.21.10E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.10E-3 (0.11%)[0.06% 0.20%]1.10E-3 (0.11%)9.00E-4
M≥7.39.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0009.00E-4 (0.09%)[0.04% 0.18%]9.00E-4 (0.09%)7.00E-4
M≥7.47.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0007.00E-4 (0.07%)[0.03% 0.15%]7.00E-4 (0.07%)5.00E-4
M≥7.55.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)3.00E-4
M≥7.65.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)3.00E-4
M≥7.75.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)3.00E-4
M≥7.83.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)1.00E-4
M≥7.93.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)1.00E-4
M≥83.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)1.00E-4
M≥8.12.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)1.00E-4
M≥8.21.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Week Magnitude Number Distribution

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1 Week Magnitude Number Distribution, Including Spontaneous

(top)

Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 wk Probability1 wk Prob 95% Conf1 wk Supra-Seis Prob
M≥2.536.97514.00077.00025.00023.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥2.629.38710.00062.00020.00018.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥2.723.3617.00050.00016.00015.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥2.818.5415.00040.00013.00011.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.95% 100.00%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥2.914.7194.00033.00010.0009.0001.000 (99.96%)[99.89% 99.99%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥311.6822.00026.0008.0007.0000.999 (99.87%)[99.77% 99.93%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥3.19.2862.00022.0006.0006.0000.996 (99.58%)[99.43% 99.69%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥3.27.3691.00017.0005.0004.0000.988 (98.80%)[98.56% 99.00%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥3.35.8430.00014.0004.0003.0000.968 (96.77%)[96.40% 97.10%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥3.44.6480.00012.0003.0002.0000.936 (93.63%)[93.13% 94.10%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥3.53.6860.00010.0002.0002.0000.888 (88.76%)[88.12% 89.37%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥3.62.9340.0008.0002.0001.0000.830 (83.04%)[82.29% 83.77%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥3.72.3390.0007.0001.0001.0000.760 (75.99%)[75.14% 76.82%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥3.81.8480.0006.0001.0000.0000.678 (67.79%)[66.86% 68.70%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥3.91.4680.0005.0001.0000.0000.596 (59.64%)[58.67% 60.60%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥41.1720.0004.0001.0000.0000.519 (51.89%)[50.91% 52.87%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥4.10.9340.0004.0000.0000.0000.445 (44.49%)[43.51% 45.47%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥4.20.7450.0003.0000.0000.0000.382 (38.20%)[37.25% 39.16%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥4.30.5930.0003.0000.0000.0000.322 (32.23%)[31.32% 33.16%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥4.40.4680.0003.0000.0000.0000.265 (26.45%)[25.59% 27.33%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥4.50.3740.0002.0000.0000.0000.220 (21.98%)[21.17% 22.81%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥4.60.3000.0002.0000.0000.0000.182 (18.25%)[17.50% 19.02%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥4.70.2380.0002.0000.0000.0000.151 (15.10%)[14.41% 15.82%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥4.80.1900.0002.0000.0000.0000.123 (12.34%)[11.70% 13.00%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥4.90.1510.0001.0000.0000.0000.101 (10.07%)[9.49% 10.68%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥50.1210.0001.0000.0000.0000.082 (8.24%)[7.71% 8.80%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥5.10.0980.0001.0000.0000.0000.068 (6.84%)[6.36% 7.36%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥5.20.0810.0001.0000.0000.0000.057 (5.70%)[5.26% 6.18%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥5.30.0660.0001.0000.0000.0000.047 (4.73%)[4.33% 5.17%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥5.40.0550.0001.0000.0000.0000.039 (3.94%)[3.57% 4.34%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥5.50.0430.0001.0000.0000.0000.032 (3.21%)[2.88% 3.58%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥5.60.0340.0001.0000.0000.0000.026 (2.60%)[2.30% 2.94%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥5.70.0260.0000.0000.0000.0000.020 (2.04%)[1.78% 2.34%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥5.80.0210.0000.0000.0000.0000.017 (1.65%)[1.41% 1.92%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)
M≥5.90.0170.0000.0000.0000.0000.013 (1.33%)[1.12% 1.58%]8.30E-3 (0.83%)
M≥60.0140.0000.0000.0000.0000.011 (1.13%)[0.94% 1.36%]7.90E-3 (0.79%)
M≥6.10.0110.0000.0000.0000.0009.30E-3 (0.93%)[0.76% 1.14%]6.80E-3 (0.68%)
M≥6.29.30E-30.0000.0000.0000.0008.20E-3 (0.82%)[0.66% 1.02%]6.10E-3 (0.61%)
M≥6.37.70E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.00E-3 (0.70%)[0.55% 0.89%]5.40E-3 (0.54%)
M≥6.46.50E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.00E-3 (0.60%)[0.46% 0.78%]5.10E-3 (0.51%)
M≥6.54.90E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.50E-3 (0.45%)[0.33% 0.61%]4.20E-3 (0.42%)
M≥6.64.00E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.80E-3 (0.38%)[0.27% 0.53%]3.50E-3 (0.35%)
M≥6.72.90E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.80E-3 (0.28%)[0.19% 0.41%]2.70E-3 (0.27%)
M≥6.82.40E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.40E-3 (0.24%)[0.16% 0.36%]2.30E-3 (0.23%)
M≥6.92.00E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-3 (0.20%)[0.13% 0.31%]1.90E-3 (0.19%)
M≥71.80E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.80E-3 (0.18%)[0.11% 0.29%]1.70E-3 (0.17%)
M≥7.11.30E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.30E-3 (0.13%)[0.07% 0.23%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥7.29.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0009.00E-4 (0.09%)[0.04% 0.18%]9.00E-4 (0.09%)
M≥7.38.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0008.00E-4 (0.08%)[0.04% 0.16%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)
M≥7.47.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0007.00E-4 (0.07%)[0.03% 0.15%]7.00E-4 (0.07%)
M≥7.55.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)
M≥7.62.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)
M≥7.72.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)
M≥7.81.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)
M≥7.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)

1 Week Magnitude Number Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

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Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 wk Probability1 wk Prob 95% Conf1 wk Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.510.3041.00021.0006.0006.0000.996 (99.61%)[99.46% 99.72%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)5.492
M≥2.68.2041.00017.0005.0004.0000.987 (98.66%)[98.41% 98.87%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)4.382
M≥2.76.5100.00014.0004.0003.0000.970 (97.03%)[96.67% 97.35%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)3.476
M≥2.85.1790.00012.0003.0002.0000.942 (94.20%)[93.72% 94.65%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)2.763
M≥2.94.1030.00010.0002.0002.0000.893 (89.27%)[88.64% 89.87%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)2.189
M≥33.2640.0008.0002.0001.0000.833 (83.30%)[82.55% 84.02%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)1.743
M≥3.12.6010.0007.0001.0001.0000.758 (75.85%)[75.00% 76.68%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)1.389
M≥3.22.0600.0006.0001.0000.0000.680 (67.98%)[67.05% 68.89%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)1.099
M≥3.31.6380.0005.0001.0000.0000.601 (60.05%)[59.08% 61.01%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)0.878
M≥3.41.3020.0004.0001.0000.0000.524 (52.38%)[51.40% 53.36%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)0.697
M≥3.51.0340.0004.0000.0000.0000.449 (44.93%)[43.95% 45.91%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)0.553
M≥3.60.8220.0003.0000.0000.0000.380 (37.97%)[37.02% 38.93%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)0.441
M≥3.70.6500.0003.0000.0000.0000.317 (31.72%)[30.81% 32.64%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)0.351
M≥3.80.5130.0002.0000.0000.0000.260 (26.04%)[25.18% 26.91%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)0.278
M≥3.90.4080.0002.0000.0000.0000.213 (21.33%)[20.53% 22.15%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)0.218
M≥40.3270.0002.0000.0000.0000.178 (17.77%)[17.03% 18.54%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)0.175
M≥4.10.2610.0002.0000.0000.0000.144 (14.43%)[13.75% 15.14%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)0.139
M≥4.20.2080.0001.0000.0000.0000.118 (11.85%)[11.23% 12.50%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)0.111
M≥4.30.1660.0001.0000.0000.0000.097 (9.67%)[9.10% 10.27%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)0.089
M≥4.40.1310.0001.0000.0000.0000.077 (7.75%)[7.24% 8.30%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)0.070
M≥4.50.1050.0001.0000.0000.0000.064 (6.35%)[5.88% 6.85%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)0.056
M≥4.60.0830.0001.0000.0000.0000.052 (5.20%)[4.78% 5.66%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)0.045
M≥4.70.0680.0001.0000.0000.0000.043 (4.29%)[3.91% 4.71%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)0.037
M≥4.80.0560.0001.0000.0000.0000.036 (3.63%)[3.28% 4.02%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)0.031
M≥4.90.0450.0001.0000.0000.0000.030 (2.97%)[2.65% 3.33%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)0.025
M≥50.0360.0000.0000.0000.0000.024 (2.41%)[2.12% 2.73%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)0.020
M≥5.10.0290.0000.0000.0000.0000.020 (2.03%)[1.77% 2.33%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)0.017
M≥5.20.0230.0000.0000.0000.0000.017 (1.66%)[1.42% 1.93%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)0.013
M≥5.30.0190.0000.0000.0000.0000.014 (1.41%)[1.19% 1.67%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)0.011
M≥5.40.0160.0000.0000.0000.0000.012 (1.16%)[0.96% 1.39%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)9.40E-3
M≥5.50.0120.0000.0000.0000.0009.00E-3 (0.90%)[0.73% 1.11%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)7.10E-3
M≥5.69.00E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.00E-3 (0.70%)[0.55% 0.89%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)5.60E-3
M≥5.77.40E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.80E-3 (0.58%)[0.44% 0.75%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)4.80E-3
M≥5.86.00E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.80E-3 (0.48%)[0.36% 0.64%]3.30E-3 (0.33%)4.00E-3
M≥5.95.00E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.10E-3 (0.41%)[0.30% 0.56%]3.10E-3 (0.31%)3.60E-3
M≥64.70E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.80E-3 (0.38%)[0.27% 0.53%]3.00E-3 (0.30%)3.40E-3
M≥6.13.80E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.20E-3 (0.32%)[0.22% 0.46%]2.80E-3 (0.28%)2.80E-3
M≥6.23.40E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.90E-3 (0.29%)[0.20% 0.42%]2.50E-3 (0.25%)2.50E-3
M≥6.32.60E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.20E-3 (0.22%)[0.14% 0.34%]2.00E-3 (0.20%)1.80E-3
M≥6.42.20E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.90E-3 (0.19%)[0.12% 0.30%]1.90E-3 (0.19%)1.60E-3
M≥6.51.80E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.60E-3 (0.16%)[0.09% 0.27%]1.60E-3 (0.16%)1.30E-3
M≥6.61.40E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.30E-3 (0.13%)[0.07% 0.23%]1.30E-3 (0.13%)1.10E-3
M≥6.71.00E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.05% 0.19%]1.00E-3 (0.10%)8.00E-4
M≥6.81.00E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.05% 0.19%]1.00E-3 (0.10%)8.00E-4
M≥6.98.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0008.00E-4 (0.08%)[0.04% 0.16%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)6.00E-4
M≥76.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0006.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.02% 0.14%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)5.00E-4
M≥7.15.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)5.00E-4
M≥7.24.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.01% 0.11%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)4.00E-4
M≥7.33.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)3.00E-4
M≥7.43.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)3.00E-4
M≥7.51.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)1.00E-4
M≥7.61.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)1.00E-4
M≥7.71.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)1.00E-4
M≥7.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Day Magnitude Number Distribution

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1 Day Magnitude Number Distribution, Including Spontaneous

(top)

Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 d Probability1 d Prob 95% Conf1 d Supra-Seis Prob
M≥2.54.3980.00010.0003.0002.0000.954 (95.38%)[94.95% 95.78%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥2.63.5040.0008.0002.0002.0000.916 (91.58%)[91.01% 92.11%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥2.72.7860.0007.0002.0001.0000.862 (86.18%)[85.48% 86.85%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥2.82.2120.0006.0001.0001.0000.789 (78.86%)[78.04% 79.65%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥2.91.7590.0005.0001.0001.0000.709 (70.93%)[70.03% 71.82%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥31.3890.0004.0001.0000.0000.626 (62.57%)[61.61% 63.52%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥3.11.1060.0004.0001.0000.0000.545 (54.55%)[53.57% 55.53%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥3.20.8770.0003.0000.0000.0000.466 (46.58%)[45.60% 47.56%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥3.30.6970.0003.0000.0000.0000.393 (39.25%)[38.29% 40.22%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥3.40.5560.0003.0000.0000.0000.330 (32.99%)[32.07% 33.92%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥3.50.4340.0002.0000.0000.0000.271 (27.05%)[26.18% 27.93%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥3.60.3470.0002.0000.0000.0000.224 (22.40%)[21.59% 23.23%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥3.70.2770.0002.0000.0000.0000.184 (18.42%)[17.67% 19.20%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥3.80.2170.0001.0000.0000.0000.145 (14.50%)[13.82% 15.21%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥3.90.1710.0001.0000.0000.0000.117 (11.65%)[11.03% 12.30%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥40.1350.0001.0000.0000.0000.094 (9.42%)[8.86% 10.01%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥4.10.1090.0001.0000.0000.0000.076 (7.61%)[7.10% 8.15%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥4.20.0850.0001.0000.0000.0000.060 (6.00%)[5.55% 6.49%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥4.30.0680.0001.0000.0000.0000.048 (4.80%)[4.39% 5.24%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥4.40.0520.0001.0000.0000.0000.038 (3.80%)[3.44% 4.20%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥4.50.0420.0001.0000.0000.0000.031 (3.11%)[2.78% 3.47%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥4.60.0350.0001.0000.0000.0000.026 (2.56%)[2.26% 2.89%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥4.70.0290.0000.0000.0000.0000.022 (2.17%)[1.90% 2.48%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥4.80.0230.0000.0000.0000.0000.019 (1.86%)[1.61% 2.15%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥4.90.0180.0000.0000.0000.0000.015 (1.47%)[1.25% 1.73%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥50.0140.0000.0000.0000.0000.012 (1.18%)[0.98% 1.42%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥5.10.0110.0000.0000.0000.0009.30E-3 (0.93%)[0.76% 1.14%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥5.29.30E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.60E-3 (0.76%)[0.60% 0.96%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥5.37.50E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.30E-3 (0.63%)[0.49% 0.81%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥5.46.10E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.20E-3 (0.52%)[0.39% 0.69%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥5.55.20E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.30E-3 (0.43%)[0.32% 0.58%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥5.64.00E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.40E-3 (0.34%)[0.24% 0.48%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥5.73.10E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.60E-3 (0.26%)[0.17% 0.39%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥5.82.80E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.30E-3 (0.23%)[0.15% 0.35%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥5.92.10E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.80E-3 (0.18%)[0.11% 0.29%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥62.00E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.70E-3 (0.17%)[0.10% 0.28%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥6.11.50E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.30E-3 (0.13%)[0.07% 0.23%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥6.21.50E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.30E-3 (0.13%)[0.07% 0.23%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)
M≥6.31.40E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.20E-3 (0.12%)[0.07% 0.22%]1.10E-3 (0.11%)
M≥6.41.40E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.20E-3 (0.12%)[0.07% 0.22%]1.10E-3 (0.11%)
M≥6.51.10E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.05% 0.19%]9.00E-4 (0.09%)
M≥6.61.00E-30.0000.0000.0000.0009.00E-4 (0.09%)[0.04% 0.18%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)
M≥6.75.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)
M≥6.84.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.01% 0.11%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)
M≥6.93.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)
M≥72.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)
M≥7.11.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)
M≥7.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)

1 Day Magnitude Number Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

(top)

Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 d Probability1 d Prob 95% Conf1 d Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.51.3610.0004.0001.0000.0000.579 (57.89%)[56.91% 58.86%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)0.870
M≥2.61.0830.0004.0000.0000.0000.497 (49.75%)[48.77% 50.73%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)0.692
M≥2.70.8570.0003.0000.0000.0000.420 (42.00%)[41.03% 42.98%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)0.545
M≥2.80.6790.0003.0000.0000.0000.346 (34.58%)[33.65% 35.52%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)0.428
M≥2.90.5400.0002.0000.0000.0000.288 (28.85%)[27.97% 29.75%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)0.339
M≥30.4300.0002.0000.0000.0000.238 (23.80%)[22.97% 24.65%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)0.269
M≥3.10.3460.0002.0000.0000.0000.196 (19.60%)[18.83% 20.39%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)0.214
M≥3.20.2720.0002.0000.0000.0000.159 (15.88%)[15.17% 16.61%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)0.169
M≥3.30.2210.0001.0000.0000.0000.133 (13.31%)[12.65% 13.99%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)0.138
M≥3.40.1770.0001.0000.0000.0000.108 (10.79%)[10.19% 11.42%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)0.110
M≥3.50.1390.0001.0000.0000.0000.085 (8.48%)[7.94% 9.05%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)0.085
M≥3.60.1100.0001.0000.0000.0000.068 (6.78%)[6.30% 7.29%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)0.067
M≥3.70.0850.0001.0000.0000.0000.054 (5.36%)[4.93% 5.82%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)0.051
M≥3.80.0670.0001.0000.0000.0000.041 (4.14%)[3.76% 4.55%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)0.039
M≥3.90.0530.0001.0000.0000.0000.034 (3.38%)[3.04% 3.76%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)0.032
M≥40.0420.0001.0000.0000.0000.027 (2.73%)[2.42% 3.07%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)0.025
M≥4.10.0330.0000.0000.0000.0000.021 (2.13%)[1.86% 2.44%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)0.020
M≥4.20.0260.0000.0000.0000.0000.017 (1.69%)[1.45% 1.97%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)0.015
M≥4.30.0210.0000.0000.0000.0000.013 (1.33%)[1.12% 1.58%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)0.012
M≥4.40.0160.0000.0000.0000.0000.011 (1.07%)[0.88% 1.30%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)9.40E-3
M≥4.50.0130.0000.0000.0000.0008.80E-3 (0.88%)[0.71% 1.09%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)7.60E-3
M≥4.60.0110.0000.0000.0000.0007.30E-3 (0.73%)[0.58% 0.92%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)6.30E-3
M≥4.79.00E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.20E-3 (0.62%)[0.48% 0.80%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)5.30E-3
M≥4.87.80E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.90E-3 (0.59%)[0.45% 0.77%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)5.00E-3
M≥4.96.40E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.10E-3 (0.51%)[0.38% 0.68%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)4.10E-3
M≥55.40E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.30E-3 (0.43%)[0.32% 0.58%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)3.50E-3
M≥5.14.30E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.40E-3 (0.34%)[0.24% 0.48%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)2.70E-3
M≥5.23.40E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.70E-3 (0.27%)[0.18% 0.40%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)2.00E-3
M≥5.32.80E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.30E-3 (0.23%)[0.15% 0.35%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)1.70E-3
M≥5.42.10E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.60E-3 (0.16%)[0.09% 0.27%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)1.20E-3
M≥5.51.70E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.20E-3 (0.12%)[0.07% 0.22%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)9.00E-4
M≥5.61.40E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.10E-3 (0.11%)[0.06% 0.20%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)9.00E-4
M≥5.71.30E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.05% 0.19%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)9.00E-4
M≥5.81.30E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.05% 0.19%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)9.00E-4
M≥5.91.10E-30.0000.0000.0000.0009.00E-4 (0.09%)[0.04% 0.18%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)8.00E-4
M≥61.10E-30.0000.0000.0000.0009.00E-4 (0.09%)[0.04% 0.18%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)8.00E-4
M≥6.18.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0006.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.02% 0.14%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)6.00E-4
M≥6.28.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0006.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.02% 0.14%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)6.00E-4
M≥6.37.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)5.00E-4
M≥6.47.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)5.00E-4
M≥6.55.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.01% 0.11%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)3.00E-4
M≥6.64.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)2.00E-4
M≥6.71.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)0.000
M≥6.81.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)0.000
M≥6.91.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)0.000
M≥70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Hour Magnitude Number Distribution

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1 Hour Magnitude Number Distribution, Including Spontaneous

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Note: This section includes both spontaneous and triggered events

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 hr Probability1 hr Prob 95% Conf1 hr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥2.50.1350.0001.0000.0000.0000.121 (12.14%)[11.51% 12.80%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥2.60.1090.0001.0000.0000.0000.099 (9.94%)[9.36% 10.55%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥2.70.0860.0001.0000.0000.0000.080 (7.99%)[7.47% 8.54%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥2.80.0670.0001.0000.0000.0000.063 (6.26%)[5.80% 6.76%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥2.90.0510.0001.0000.0000.0000.048 (4.80%)[4.39% 5.24%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥30.0410.0001.0000.0000.0000.039 (3.88%)[3.51% 4.28%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥3.10.0320.0001.0000.0000.0000.030 (2.99%)[2.67% 3.35%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥3.20.0260.0000.0000.0000.0000.025 (2.48%)[2.19% 2.81%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥3.30.0220.0000.0000.0000.0000.021 (2.06%)[1.79% 2.36%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥3.40.0170.0000.0000.0000.0000.016 (1.63%)[1.40% 1.90%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥3.50.0130.0000.0000.0000.0000.013 (1.26%)[1.05% 1.50%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥3.60.0100.0000.0000.0000.0000.010 (1.00%)[0.82% 1.22%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥3.77.90E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.60E-3 (0.76%)[0.60% 0.96%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥3.86.20E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.90E-3 (0.59%)[0.45% 0.77%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥3.94.50E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.30E-3 (0.43%)[0.32% 0.58%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥43.80E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.60E-3 (0.36%)[0.26% 0.50%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥4.12.80E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.70E-3 (0.27%)[0.18% 0.40%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥4.22.00E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-3 (0.20%)[0.13% 0.31%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥4.31.70E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.70E-3 (0.17%)[0.10% 0.28%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥4.41.30E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.30E-3 (0.13%)[0.07% 0.23%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥4.51.00E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.05% 0.19%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥4.68.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0008.00E-4 (0.08%)[0.04% 0.16%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥4.77.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0007.00E-4 (0.07%)[0.03% 0.15%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥4.85.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥4.95.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥54.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.01% 0.11%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥5.14.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.01% 0.11%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥5.21.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥5.31.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥5.41.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥5.51.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥5.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥5.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥5.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥5.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥6.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥6.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥6.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥6.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥6.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥6.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥6.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥6.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥6.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)

1 Hour Magnitude Number Distribution, Including Spontaneous, Triggered Events

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Note: This section only includes triggered events, spontaneous were calculated but filtered out here

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 hr Probability1 hr Prob 95% Conf1 hr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.50.0380.0001.0000.0000.0000.035 (3.55%)[3.20% 3.94%]0.000 (0.00%)0.036
M≥2.60.0300.0001.0000.0000.0000.028 (2.82%)[2.51% 3.17%]0.000 (0.00%)0.028
M≥2.70.0240.0000.0000.0000.0000.022 (2.22%)[1.94% 2.53%]0.000 (0.00%)0.022
M≥2.80.0180.0000.0000.0000.0000.017 (1.73%)[1.49% 2.01%]0.000 (0.00%)0.018
M≥2.90.0130.0000.0000.0000.0000.013 (1.28%)[1.07% 1.53%]0.000 (0.00%)0.013
M≥30.0110.0000.0000.0000.0000.010 (1.00%)[0.82% 1.22%]0.000 (0.00%)0.010
M≥3.17.80E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.30E-3 (0.73%)[0.58% 0.92%]0.000 (0.00%)7.30E-3
M≥3.26.60E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.20E-3 (0.62%)[0.48% 0.80%]0.000 (0.00%)6.20E-3
M≥3.35.60E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.30E-3 (0.53%)[0.40% 0.70%]0.000 (0.00%)5.30E-3
M≥3.44.70E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.40E-3 (0.44%)[0.32% 0.60%]0.000 (0.00%)4.40E-3
M≥3.53.50E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.30E-3 (0.33%)[0.23% 0.47%]0.000 (0.00%)3.30E-3
M≥3.62.80E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.70E-3 (0.27%)[0.18% 0.40%]0.000 (0.00%)2.70E-3
M≥3.71.80E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.80E-3 (0.18%)[0.11% 0.29%]0.000 (0.00%)1.80E-3
M≥3.81.60E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.60E-3 (0.16%)[0.09% 0.27%]0.000 (0.00%)1.60E-3
M≥3.91.40E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.40E-3 (0.14%)[0.08% 0.24%]0.000 (0.00%)1.40E-3
M≥41.00E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.05% 0.19%]0.000 (0.00%)1.00E-3
M≥4.17.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0007.00E-4 (0.07%)[0.03% 0.15%]0.000 (0.00%)7.00E-4
M≥4.24.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.01% 0.11%]0.000 (0.00%)4.00E-4
M≥4.34.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.01% 0.11%]0.000 (0.00%)4.00E-4
M≥4.44.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.01% 0.11%]0.000 (0.00%)4.00E-4
M≥4.54.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.01% 0.11%]0.000 (0.00%)4.00E-4
M≥4.63.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)3.00E-4
M≥4.73.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]0.000 (0.00%)3.00E-4
M≥4.82.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]0.000 (0.00%)2.00E-4
M≥4.92.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]0.000 (0.00%)2.00E-4
M≥52.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]0.000 (0.00%)2.00E-4
M≥5.12.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]0.000 (0.00%)2.00E-4
M≥5.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥5.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥5.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥5.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥5.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥5.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥5.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥5.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥6.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥6.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥6.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥6.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥6.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥6.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥6.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥6.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥6.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Hazard Change Over Time

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These plots show how the probability of ruptures of various magnitudes statewide changes over time

M≥5.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard ChangeGain
Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour1.20E-3 [1.04E-3 - 1.81E-3]2.00E-41.00E-31.29.86E-4
1 Day0.028 [0.027 - 0.029]4.30E-30.0241.180.023
1 Week0.175 [0.173 - 0.178]0.0240.1551.130.153
1 Month0.555 [0.552 - 0.558]0.0840.5141.080.508
1 Year1.000 [1.000 - 1.000]0.6021.00011.000
10 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000]0.9991.00011.000
30 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **1.0001 *1.000
100 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **1.0001 *1.000

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥6.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard ChangeGain
Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour1.14E-4 [1.14E-4 - 5.93E-4]0.0001.14E-419.93E-5
1 Day3.63E-3 [3.17E-3 - 4.50E-3]9.00E-42.73E-31.332.38E-3
1 Week0.023 [0.022 - 0.024]3.80E-30.0191.20.017
1 Month0.088 [0.087 - 0.090]0.0100.0791.120.069
1 Year0.672 [0.670 - 0.674]0.1090.6321.060.581
10 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000]0.5791.00011.000
30 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **1.0001 *1.000
100 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **1.0001 *1.000

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥7.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard ChangeGain
Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour1.17E-5 [1.17E-5 - 4.90E-4]0.0001.17E-519.51E-6
1 Day2.82E-4 [2.82E-4 - 7.60E-4]0.0002.82E-412.28E-4
1 Week2.57E-3 [2.21E-3 - 3.34E-3]6.00E-41.97E-31.31.60E-3
1 Month0.010 [9.43E-3 - 0.011]1.70E-38.41E-31.26.82E-3
1 Year0.109 [0.107 - 0.111]0.0120.0981.110.080
10 Years0.676 [0.674 - 0.678]0.0940.6421.050.566
30 Years0.957 [0.957 - 0.957] **0.9531 *0.918
100 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **1.0001 *1.000

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥8.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard ChangeGain
Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour3.13E-7 [3.13E-7 - 4.79E-4]0.0003.13E-712.64E-7
1 Day7.52E-6 [7.52E-6 - 4.86E-4]0.0007.52E-616.33E-6
1 Week5.26E-5 [5.26E-5 - 5.31E-4]0.0005.26E-514.43E-5
1 Month5.25E-4 [3.03E-4 - 1.18E-3]3.00E-42.25E-42.331.90E-4
1 Year3.14E-3 [2.87E-3 - 3.84E-3]4.00E-42.74E-31.152.31E-3
10 Years0.031 [0.030 - 0.032]2.90E-30.0281.10.023
30 Years0.092 [0.091 - 0.093] **0.0901.03 *0.067
100 Years0.290 [0.289 - 0.291] **0.2881.01 *0.206

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

Trigger Rupture Fault Map

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Map

Individual Simulated Catalog Maps

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These are map plots of individual catalogs from the simulations, selected as the closest catalog to each of the given percentiles in terms of total number of events.

Durationp0.0 %-ilep25.0 %-ilep50.0 %-ilep75.0 %-ilep90.0 %-ilep95.0 %-ilep97.5 %-ilep98.0 %-ilep99.0 %-ilep99.99 %-ile
1 WeekMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap
1 MonthMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap
1 YearMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap
10 YearMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap

ComCat Data Comparisons

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These plots compare simulated sequences with data from ComCat. All plots only consider events with hypocenters inside the ComCat region defined in the JSON input file.

Last updated at 2021/10/18 19:36:01 UTC, 3.8 years after the simulation start time.

Total matching ComCat events found: 8277

ComCat Magnitude-Number Distributions

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Incremental MNDCumulative MND
Incremental MNDCumi MND

ComCat Magnitude-Time Functions

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These plots show the show the magnitude versus time probability function since simulation start. Observed event data lie on top, with those input to the simulation plotted as magenta circles and those that occurred after the simulation start time as cyan circles. Time is relative to the simulation start time. Probabilities are only shown above the minimum simulated magnitude, M=2.5.

One Week
One Month
Full Mag/Time

ComCat Time-Dependent Mc

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The following plots compare simulation results with ComCat data above a magnitude threshold. Plots labeled as M≥Mc(t) use the time-dependent magnitude of completeness (Mc) defined in Helmstetter et al. (2006), which is plotted below. In the case of multiple M≥5 ruptures, either as input to the simulation or in the comparison data, the maximum calculated time-dependent Mc is used. This time-dependent Mc function is plotted below.

TD MC

ComCat Cumulative Number Vs Time

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M≥Mc(t)M≥3M≥4M≥5M≥6M≥7M≥8
MNDMNDMNDMNDMNDMNDMND

ComCat Cumulative Number Simulation Percentiles

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MND

ComCat Probability Spatial Distribution

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1 Day1 Week1 Month1 YearCurrent (3.8 Year)
M≥Mc(t)MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 95.38%, Actual: 3Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 20Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 67Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 772Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 7286
M≥3MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 62.55%, Actual: 2Prob: 99.87%, Actual: 5Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 15Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 192Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 2859
M≥4MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 9.42%, Actual: 0Prob: 51.83%, Actual: 1Prob: 95.60%, Actual: 2Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 17Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 291
M≥5MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 1.18%, Actual: 0Prob: 8.23%, Actual: 0Prob: 30.07%, Actual: 0Prob: 98.81%, Actual: 1Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 21
M≥6MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 0.17%, Actual: 0Prob: 1.12%, Actual: 0Prob: 4.21%, Actual: 0Prob: 43.23%, Actual: 0Prob: 88.66%, Actual: 4
M≥7MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 0.02%, Actual: 0Prob: 0.18%, Actual: 0Prob: 0.59%, Actual: 0Prob: 5.96%, Actual: 0Prob: 21.06%, Actual: 1
M≥8MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 0.00%, Actual: 0Prob: 0.00%, Actual: 0Prob: 0.05%, Actual: 0Prob: 0.16%, Actual: 0Prob: 0.58%, Actual: 0

ComCat Mean Expectation Spatial Distribution

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1 Day1 Week1 Month1 YearCurrent (3.8 Year)
M≥Mc(t)MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 4.395, Actual: 3Mean: 36.954, Actual: 20Mean: 171.772, Actual: 67Mean: 2278.259, Actual: 772Mean: 9169.580, Actual: 7286
M≥3MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 1.388, Actual: 2Mean: 11.676, Actual: 5Mean: 54.198, Actual: 15Mean: 720.360, Actual: 192Mean: 2901.334, Actual: 2859
M≥4MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 0.135, Actual: 0Mean: 1.172, Actual: 1Mean: 5.422, Actual: 2Mean: 72.117, Actual: 17Mean: 290.224, Actual: 291
M≥5MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 0.014, Actual: 0Mean: 0.121, Actual: 0Mean: 0.539, Actual: 0Mean: 7.145, Actual: 1Mean: 28.887, Actual: 21
M≥6MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 2.00E-3, Actual: 0Mean: 0.014, Actual: 0Mean: 0.053, Actual: 0Mean: 0.703, Actual: 0Mean: 2.777, Actual: 4
M≥7MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 2.00E-4, Actual: 0Mean: 1.80E-3, Actual: 0Mean: 5.90E-3, Actual: 0Mean: 0.064, Actual: 0Mean: 0.249, Actual: 1
M≥8MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 0.000, Actual: 0Mean: 0.000, Actual: 0Mean: 5.00E-4, Actual: 0Mean: 1.60E-3, Actual: 0Mean: 5.80E-3, Actual: 0

ComCat Depth Distribution

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M≥Mc(t)M≥3M≥4M≥5M≥6M≥7M≥8
Depth DistributionDepth DistributionDepth DistributionDepth DistributionDepth DistributionDepth DistributionDepth Distribution

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min Mag1 yr Complete Catalog (including spontaneous)1 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)10 yr Complete Catalog (including spontaneous)10 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)10 yr Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 312 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal 10 Year Mean CountTotal 1 Day ProbTotal 1 Day 95% ConfTotal 1 Week ProbTotal 1 Week 95% ConfTotal 1 Month ProbTotal 1 Month 95% ConfTotal 1 Year ProbTotal 1 Year 95% ConfTotal 10 Year ProbTotal 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.43770.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]9.00E-4 (0.09%)[0.04% 0.18%]3.40E-3 (0.34%)[0.24% 0.48%]0.040 (3.98%)[3.61% 4.39%]0.410 (41.00%)[40.03% 41.97%]0.12450.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]1.40E-3 (0.14%)[0.08% 0.24%]0.013 (1.30%)[1.09% 1.55%]0.120 (12.05%)[11.42% 12.71%]0.0877
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.40780.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]1.30E-3 (0.13%)[0.07% 0.23%]3.50E-3 (0.35%)[0.25% 0.49%]0.042 (4.20%)[3.82% 4.62%]0.329 (32.89%)[31.97% 33.82%]0.05450.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]7.00E-4 (0.07%)[0.03% 0.15%]1.70E-3 (0.17%)[0.10% 0.28%]9.40E-3 (0.94%)[0.76% 1.15%]0.050 (4.96%)[4.55% 5.41%]0.0311
Mendocino0.27332.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]9.00E-4 (0.09%)[0.04% 0.18%]3.50E-3 (0.35%)[0.25% 0.49%]0.029 (2.85%)[2.54% 3.20%]0.245 (24.54%)[23.70% 25.40%]0.06532.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)[0.04% 0.16%]1.10E-3 (0.11%)[0.06% 0.20%]9.60E-3 (0.96%)[0.78% 1.18%]0.063 (6.28%)[5.82% 6.78%]0.0437
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.26241.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]2.30E-3 (0.23%)[0.15% 0.35%]0.022 (2.23%)[1.95% 2.54%]0.207 (20.71%)[19.92% 21.52%]0.05410.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]5.10E-3 (0.51%)[0.38% 0.68%]0.044 (4.39%)[4.00% 4.81%]0.0297
Cerro Prieto0.18781.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.02% 0.14%]1.40E-3 (0.14%)[0.08% 0.24%]0.020 (2.04%)[1.78% 2.34%]0.182 (18.18%)[17.43% 18.95%]0.03870.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]5.20E-3 (0.52%)[0.39% 0.69%]0.038 (3.83%)[3.47% 4.23%]0.0208
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.15890.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]1.10E-3 (0.11%)[0.06% 0.20%]0.016 (1.60%)[1.37% 1.87%]0.154 (15.37%)[14.67% 16.10%]0.03150.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]5.50E-3 (0.55%)[0.42% 0.72%]0.031 (3.12%)[2.79% 3.48%]0.0188
Imperial0.15110.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]1.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.05% 0.19%]0.015 (1.51%)[1.28% 1.77%]0.145 (14.52%)[13.84% 15.23%]0.02980.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]5.10E-3 (0.51%)[0.38% 0.68%]0.029 (2.93%)[2.61% 3.28%]0.0186
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.13382.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.02% 0.14%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)[0.04% 0.16%]0.011 (1.13%)[0.94% 1.36%]0.121 (12.13%)[11.50% 12.79%]0.01851.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]2.50E-3 (0.25%)[0.17% 0.37%]0.017 (1.69%)[1.45% 1.97%]0.0091
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.11020.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)[0.07% 0.22%]0.010 (1.02%)[0.84% 1.24%]0.102 (10.24%)[9.66% 10.85%]0.01550.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)[0.07% 0.22%]0.015 (1.47%)[1.25% 1.73%]0.0073
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev0.10791.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]1.50E-3 (0.15%)[0.09% 0.25%]9.10E-3 (0.91%)[0.74% 1.12%]0.092 (9.18%)[8.62% 9.77%]0.01241.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]2.00E-3 (0.20%)[0.13% 0.31%]0.011 (1.07%)[0.88% 1.30%]0.0065

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 303 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal 10 Year Mean CountTotal 1 Day ProbTotal 1 Day 95% ConfTotal 1 Week ProbTotal 1 Week 95% ConfTotal 1 Month ProbTotal 1 Month 95% ConfTotal 1 Year ProbTotal 1 Year 95% ConfTotal 10 Year ProbTotal 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
Cerro Prieto0.16171.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.02% 0.14%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)[0.07% 0.22%]0.017 (1.69%)[1.45% 1.97%]0.159 (15.92%)[15.21% 16.66%]0.03480.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]4.40E-3 (0.44%)[0.32% 0.60%]0.035 (3.47%)[3.12% 3.85%]0.0188
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.13320.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.01% 0.11%]1.60E-3 (0.16%)[0.09% 0.27%]0.013 (1.30%)[1.09% 1.55%]0.123 (12.27%)[11.64% 12.93%]0.020.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]7.00E-4 (0.07%)[0.03% 0.15%]3.40E-3 (0.34%)[0.24% 0.48%]0.019 (1.94%)[1.68% 2.23%]0.0124
Mendocino0.12771.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.02% 0.14%]1.80E-3 (0.18%)[0.11% 0.29%]0.013 (1.33%)[1.12% 1.58%]0.124 (12.39%)[11.75% 13.06%]0.03651.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.02% 0.14%]9.00E-4 (0.09%)[0.04% 0.18%]5.90E-3 (0.59%)[0.45% 0.77%]0.036 (3.58%)[3.23% 3.97%]0.0242
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.11040.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)[0.04% 0.16%]0.011 (1.10%)[0.91% 1.33%]0.108 (10.76%)[10.16% 11.39%]0.01920.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]3.70E-3 (0.37%)[0.26% 0.52%]0.019 (1.91%)[1.65% 2.20%]0.0115
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.11032.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.02% 0.14%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)[0.04% 0.16%]9.60E-3 (0.96%)[0.78% 1.18%]0.103 (10.32%)[9.73% 10.94%]0.01521.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]2.10E-3 (0.21%)[0.13% 0.33%]0.014 (1.41%)[1.19% 1.67%]0.0075
Imperial0.10960.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)[0.04% 0.16%]0.011 (1.10%)[0.91% 1.33%]0.107 (10.69%)[10.09% 11.32%]0.01850.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]3.70E-3 (0.37%)[0.26% 0.52%]0.018 (1.84%)[1.59% 2.13%]0.0112
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.10050.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]1.30E-3 (0.13%)[0.07% 0.23%]8.90E-3 (0.89%)[0.72% 1.10%]0.097 (9.73%)[9.16% 10.33%]0.01840.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]9.00E-4 (0.09%)[0.04% 0.18%]0.018 (1.80%)[1.55% 2.09%]0.0104
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.09830.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]1.10E-3 (0.11%)[0.06% 0.20%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)[0.75% 1.13%]0.093 (9.29%)[8.73% 9.88%]0.01470.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]1.10E-3 (0.11%)[0.06% 0.20%]0.014 (1.41%)[1.19% 1.67%]0.007
San Andreas (Coachella) rev0.08780.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)[0.04% 0.16%]8.40E-3 (0.84%)[0.67% 1.04%]0.087 (8.69%)[8.15% 9.26%]0.01470.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]2.50E-3 (0.25%)[0.17% 0.37%]0.015 (1.46%)[1.24% 1.72%]0.0092
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0830.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]1.10E-3 (0.11%)[0.06% 0.20%]7.80E-3 (0.78%)[0.62% 0.98%]0.082 (8.21%)[7.68% 8.77%]0.0170.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.01% 0.11%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)[0.07% 0.22%]0.017 (1.68%)[1.44% 1.96%]0.0109

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 10 of 265 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal 10 Year Mean CountTotal 1 Day ProbTotal 1 Day 95% ConfTotal 1 Week ProbTotal 1 Week 95% ConfTotal 1 Month ProbTotal 1 Month 95% ConfTotal 1 Year ProbTotal 1 Year 95% ConfTotal 10 Year ProbTotal 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.08020.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]1.10E-3 (0.11%)[0.06% 0.20%]7.50E-3 (0.75%)[0.59% 0.94%]0.080 (7.96%)[7.44% 8.51%]0.01560.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]1.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.05% 0.19%]0.015 (1.55%)[1.32% 1.82%]0.0093
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.07770.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]1.10E-3 (0.11%)[0.06% 0.20%]7.30E-3 (0.73%)[0.58% 0.92%]0.077 (7.72%)[7.21% 8.26%]0.01560.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.01% 0.11%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)[0.07% 0.22%]0.015 (1.55%)[1.32% 1.82%]0.0098
San Andreas (Coachella) rev0.07580.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)[0.04% 0.16%]7.10E-3 (0.71%)[0.56% 0.90%]0.076 (7.56%)[7.05% 8.10%]0.01240.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]2.00E-3 (0.20%)[0.13% 0.31%]0.012 (1.23%)[1.03% 1.47%]0.0079
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0740.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)[0.07% 0.22%]7.60E-3 (0.76%)[0.60% 0.96%]0.071 (7.12%)[6.63% 7.65%]0.01420.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.02% 0.14%]2.30E-3 (0.23%)[0.15% 0.35%]0.014 (1.41%)[1.19% 1.67%]0.0091
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0740.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]1.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.05% 0.19%]6.60E-3 (0.66%)[0.51% 0.84%]0.073 (7.33%)[6.83% 7.86%]0.01310.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]7.00E-4 (0.07%)[0.03% 0.15%]0.013 (1.30%)[1.09% 1.55%]0.0076
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0680.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.02% 0.14%]6.20E-3 (0.62%)[0.48% 0.80%]0.068 (6.78%)[6.30% 7.29%]0.01150.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]1.90E-3 (0.19%)[0.12% 0.30%]0.011 (1.14%)[0.95% 1.37%]0.0071
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0670.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]9.00E-4 (0.09%)[0.04% 0.18%]6.80E-3 (0.68%)[0.53% 0.87%]0.066 (6.57%)[6.10% 7.08%]0.01080.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]9.00E-4 (0.09%)[0.04% 0.18%]0.011 (1.08%)[0.89% 1.31%]0.0059
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.06530.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]1.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.05% 0.19%]6.70E-3 (0.67%)[0.52% 0.86%]0.065 (6.47%)[6.00% 6.97%]0.01150.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)[0.04% 0.16%]0.011 (1.14%)[0.95% 1.37%]0.0067
Imperial0.06480.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.02% 0.14%]6.00E-3 (0.60%)[0.46% 0.78%]0.065 (6.46%)[5.99% 6.96%]0.01080.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]1.90E-3 (0.19%)[0.12% 0.30%]0.011 (1.07%)[0.88% 1.30%]0.0067
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)0.06450.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)[0.04% 0.16%]7.20E-3 (0.72%)[0.57% 0.91%]0.064 (6.42%)[5.95% 6.92%]0.01080.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]1.50E-3 (0.15%)[0.09% 0.25%]0.011 (1.07%)[0.88% 1.30%]0.0069

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 10 of 185 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal 10 Year Mean CountTotal 1 Day ProbTotal 1 Day 95% ConfTotal 1 Week ProbTotal 1 Week 95% ConfTotal 1 Month ProbTotal 1 Month 95% ConfTotal 1 Year ProbTotal 1 Year 95% ConfTotal 10 Year ProbTotal 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.06440.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]1.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.05% 0.19%]6.70E-3 (0.67%)[0.52% 0.86%]0.064 (6.41%)[5.94% 6.91%]0.01120.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)[0.04% 0.16%]0.011 (1.12%)[0.93% 1.35%]0.0065
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.05980.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]1.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.05% 0.19%]5.80E-3 (0.58%)[0.44% 0.75%]0.060 (5.97%)[5.52% 6.46%]0.01080.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]7.00E-4 (0.07%)[0.03% 0.15%]0.011 (1.08%)[0.89% 1.31%]0.0065
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.05880.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]1.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.05% 0.19%]5.70E-3 (0.57%)[0.44% 0.74%]0.059 (5.86%)[5.41% 6.34%]0.01040.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]7.00E-4 (0.07%)[0.03% 0.15%]0.010 (1.04%)[0.85% 1.26%]0.0064
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.05590.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]9.00E-4 (0.09%)[0.04% 0.18%]5.40E-3 (0.54%)[0.41% 0.71%]0.056 (5.59%)[5.15% 6.06%]0.00980.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.02% 0.14%]9.80E-3 (0.98%)[0.80% 1.20%]0.006
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.05290.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]9.00E-4 (0.09%)[0.04% 0.18%]4.80E-3 (0.48%)[0.36% 0.64%]0.053 (5.29%)[4.86% 5.75%]0.00920.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]9.20E-3 (0.92%)[0.75% 1.13%]0.0055
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.05050.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)[0.04% 0.16%]5.20E-3 (0.52%)[0.39% 0.69%]0.050 (5.02%)[4.60% 5.47%]0.00870.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]7.00E-4 (0.07%)[0.03% 0.15%]8.70E-3 (0.87%)[0.70% 1.08%]0.005
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.03930.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.06%]7.00E-4 (0.07%)[0.03% 0.15%]3.60E-3 (0.36%)[0.26% 0.50%]0.039 (3.93%)[3.56% 4.33%]0.00670.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]6.70E-3 (0.67%)[0.52% 0.86%]0.0041
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)0.03870.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.02% 0.14%]3.90E-3 (0.39%)[0.28% 0.54%]0.039 (3.86%)[3.50% 4.26%]0.00710.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]7.00E-4 (0.07%)[0.03% 0.15%]7.10E-3 (0.71%)[0.56% 0.90%]0.0044
San Andreas (Coachella) rev0.03350.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.02% 0.14%]3.90E-3 (0.39%)[0.28% 0.54%]0.033 (3.34%)[3.00% 3.72%]0.00610.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]1.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.05% 0.19%]6.10E-3 (0.61%)[0.47% 0.79%]0.0038
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)0.03350.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.02% 0.14%]4.10E-3 (0.41%)[0.30% 0.56%]0.033 (3.34%)[3.00% 3.72%]0.00650.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]9.00E-4 (0.09%)[0.04% 0.18%]6.50E-3 (0.65%)[0.51% 0.83%]0.004

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

(top)

First 10 of 50 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal 10 Year Mean CountTotal 1 Day ProbTotal 1 Day 95% ConfTotal 1 Week ProbTotal 1 Week 95% ConfTotal 1 Month ProbTotal 1 Month 95% ConfTotal 1 Year ProbTotal 1 Year 95% ConfTotal 10 Year ProbTotal 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0160.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]1.60E-3 (0.16%)[0.09% 0.27%]0.016 (1.60%)[1.37% 1.87%]0.00280.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.01% 0.11%]2.80E-3 (0.28%)[0.19% 0.41%]0.0017
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.01590.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]1.60E-3 (0.16%)[0.09% 0.27%]0.016 (1.59%)[1.36% 1.86%]0.00280.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.01% 0.11%]2.80E-3 (0.28%)[0.19% 0.41%]0.0017
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.01570.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]1.60E-3 (0.16%)[0.09% 0.27%]0.016 (1.57%)[1.34% 1.84%]0.00290.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.01% 0.11%]2.90E-3 (0.29%)[0.20% 0.42%]0.0018
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.01560.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]1.60E-3 (0.16%)[0.09% 0.27%]0.016 (1.56%)[1.33% 1.83%]0.00280.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.01% 0.11%]2.80E-3 (0.28%)[0.19% 0.41%]0.0017
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.01550.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]1.60E-3 (0.16%)[0.09% 0.27%]0.015 (1.55%)[1.32% 1.82%]0.00280.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.01% 0.11%]2.80E-3 (0.28%)[0.19% 0.41%]0.0017
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.01520.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]1.40E-3 (0.14%)[0.08% 0.24%]0.015 (1.52%)[1.29% 1.78%]0.00270.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]2.70E-3 (0.27%)[0.18% 0.40%]0.0016
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.01280.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)[0.07% 0.22%]0.013 (1.28%)[1.07% 1.53%]0.00230.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]2.30E-3 (0.23%)[0.15% 0.35%]0.0015
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.00970.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.02% 0.12%]1.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.05% 0.19%]9.70E-3 (0.97%)[0.79% 1.19%]0.00170.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]1.70E-3 (0.17%)[0.10% 0.28%]0.0013
San Andreas (Coachella) rev0.00870.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.01% 0.11%]1.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.05% 0.19%]8.70E-3 (0.87%)[0.70% 1.08%]0.00170.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.01% 0.11%]1.70E-3 (0.17%)[0.10% 0.28%]0.0012
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)0.00870.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.01% 0.11%]1.10E-3 (0.11%)[0.06% 0.20%]8.70E-3 (0.87%)[0.70% 1.08%]0.00180.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.05%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.00% 0.08%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.01% 0.10%]1.80E-3 (0.18%)[0.11% 0.29%]0.0014

Fault Magnitude-Probability Distributions

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The first 5 sections (sorted by trigger rate) are plotted below. All fault MPDs are available here

1 Week1 Month1 Year10 Year
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥2.5Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 10000,
  "duration": 10.0,
  "startTimeMillis": 1514764801000,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 1571772828727,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_triggered_descendants",
      "descendantsOnly": true
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "ComCat data 5.7 yr between historical and 2018-01-01, Statewide, Point Sources, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "/home/scec-02/kmilner/ucerf3/etas_sim/2019_10_22-ComCatdata5p7yrbetweenhistoricaland20180101_Statewide_PointSources_Spontaneous_Historical",
  "triggerCatalog": "/export/opensha-00/kmilner/ucerf3-etas-launcher/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "/export/opensha-00/kmilner/ucerf3-etas-launcher/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": false,
  "triggerRuptures": [
    "omitted due to length, see original input file"
  ],
  "cacheDir": "/export/opensha-00/kmilner/ucerf3-etas-launcher/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "/export/opensha-00/kmilner/ucerf3-etas-launcher/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.14,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "configCommand": "u3etas_comcat_config_builder.sh --start-after-historical --end-date 2018-01-01 --historical-catalog --include-spontaneous --num-simulations 10000 --finite-surf-shakemap --finite-surf-shakemap-min-mag 6 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec",
  "configTime": 1571772828727,
  "comcatMetadata": {
    "region": {
      "border": [
        {
          "latitude": 43.0,
          "longitude": -125.2
        },
        {
          "latitude": 43.0,
          "longitude": -119.0
        },
        {
          "latitude": 39.4,
          "longitude": -119.0
        },
        {
          "latitude": 35.7,
          "longitude": -114.00000000000001
        },
        {
          "latitude": 34.3,
          "longitude": -113.1
        },
        {
          "latitude": 32.9,
          "longitude": -113.5
        },
        {
          "latitude": 32.2,
          "longitude": -113.6
        },
        {
          "latitude": 31.7,
          "longitude": -114.5
        },
        {
          "latitude": 31.5,
          "longitude": -117.1
        },
        {
          "latitude": 31.900000000000002,
          "longitude": -117.90000000000002
        },
        {
          "latitude": 32.8,
          "longitude": -118.40000000000002
        },
        {
          "latitude": 33.7,
          "longitude": -121.0
        },
        {
          "latitude": 34.2,
          "longitude": -121.6
        },
        {
          "latitude": 37.7,
          "longitude": -123.80000000000001
        },
        {
          "latitude": 40.2,
          "longitude": -125.4
        },
        {
          "latitude": 40.5,
          "longitude": -125.4
        }
      ]
    },
    "minDepth": -10.0,
    "maxDepth": 24.0,
    "minMag": 2.5,
    "startTime": 1335296660000,
    "endTime": 1514764800000
  }
}