Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.16, No Faults, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog Results

Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV=1.16, No Faults, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog
Num Simulations1000
Start Time2012/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1325376000000
Duration500 Years
Includes Spontaneous?true
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Historical Ruptures60366 Trigger Ruptures
First: M7.3 at 1852/01/05 04:40:39 UTC
Last: M3.2 at 2011/12/31 19:14:44 UTC
Largest: M7.9 at 1857/01/09 16:25:39 UTC
Config Generated Withu3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --gridded-only --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.16 --random-seed 123456789 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec

Table Of Contents

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥57.5364.77613.7746.9968.1368.2611.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥5.15.9843.79210.9265.5705.0586.5611.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥5.24.7542.9968.7264.4244.1385.2101.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥5.33.7742.3646.8703.5063.0764.1371.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥5.42.9981.8865.4402.7922.8203.2851.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥5.52.3781.4824.3382.2141.8842.6081.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥5.61.8891.1723.3921.7621.7622.0701.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥5.71.5000.9142.7001.4041.2701.6431.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥5.81.1910.7282.1641.1080.9381.3031.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥5.90.9440.5741.7360.8800.8081.0201.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥60.7480.4501.3880.6960.6480.8281.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥6.10.5930.3501.0860.5500.4580.6561.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥6.20.4700.2740.8780.4360.3800.5271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥6.30.3730.2140.6980.3460.3160.4191.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥6.40.2960.1660.5680.2760.2740.3321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥6.50.2340.1280.4440.2200.2240.2601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥6.60.1850.0960.3500.1720.1480.2051.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥6.70.1460.0720.2820.1360.1200.1601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥6.80.1150.0540.2200.1060.1020.1271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥6.90.0910.0420.1780.0840.0800.1001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥70.0710.0320.1460.0660.0600.0781.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.10.0560.0240.1120.0520.0460.0601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.20.0440.0160.0900.0400.0380.0451.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.30.0340.0120.0720.0320.0240.0351.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.40.0268.00E-30.0580.0240.0200.0271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.50.0204.00E-30.0460.0180.0180.0190.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.60.0152.00E-30.0380.0140.0120.0140.994 (99.40%)[98.63% 99.76%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.70.0112.00E-30.0280.0100.0109.58E-30.987 (98.70%)[97.73% 99.28%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.88.12E-30.0000.0228.00E-36.00E-36.19E-30.965 (96.50%)[95.11% 97.51%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥7.95.71E-30.0000.0164.00E-34.00E-33.51E-30.906 (90.60%)[88.58% 92.30%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥83.78E-30.0000.0124.00E-32.00E-32.03E-30.791 (79.10%)[76.42% 81.55%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.12.13E-30.0008.00E-32.00E-30.0001.02E-30.619 (61.90%)[58.80% 64.91%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.29.88E-40.0006.00E-30.0000.0004.48E-40.367 (36.70%)[33.72% 39.78%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0001.02E-40.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)

Long Term Rate Variability

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162 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.5483956.6604944.37037043.44358254.27777775.07407439.70987716.364197
5.15.99342785.30246934.63580232.74002533.39506174.02469167.69135813.049383
5.24.7621424.20987653.3827162.1831572.6543213.1913586.12345710.320988
5.33.78043413.33950612.6481481.73700922.08641982.53086424.8765438.203704
5.43.0034322.6481482.37654331.38363651.64814822.03.87654336.5617285
5.52.38290952.11111121.8456791.1021081.29629621.58024693.09876545.185185
5.61.89255141.67283951.64814820.87904121.01851861.24691362.45061734.111111
5.71.50215221.33333341.12345680.704242470.802469130.98765431.95679013.2901235
5.81.19262351.06172840.92592590.56597780.617283940.77777781.56172842.617284
5.90.945615230.839506150.895061730.45204120.46913580.61111111.24074082.1049383
6.00.74956380.66666670.543209850.363173540.370370360.48148150.98148151.6790123
6.10.594030860.524691340.456790120.290604470.283950630.376543220.77777781.3271605
6.20.470788060.419753070.351851850.235203820.216049390.290123460.62345681.0617284
6.30.374090520.333333340.27777780.190251160.160493820.228395060.50.845679
6.40.29683540.26543210.253086420.154149230.123456790.179012340.40740740.6728395
6.50.234687240.209876540.185185180.124645240.092592590.135802460.320987640.537037
6.60.185448560.166666670.135802460.101150290.067901230.104938270.259259250.43209878
6.70.146458850.129629630.104938270.082313540.0493827160.080246910.20370370.3580247
6.80.115475310.104938270.080246910.067841560.0308641980.0617283960.166666670.28395063
6.90.090800410.080246910.067901230.0560016860.0185185190.0432098770.129629630.2345679
7.00.071401230.0617283960.0432098770.045770610.0185185190.0308641980.104938270.19135803
7.10.056137860.0493827160.0370370370.0379516850.0123456790.0246913580.0864197540.14814815
7.20.0437530880.0370370370.0308641980.031170550.00617283960.0185185190.067901230.12345679
7.30.0339711940.0308641980.0185185190.025994350.00.0123456790.0555555560.09876543
7.40.0262098760.0185185190.0123456790.0214262160.00.00617283960.0432098770.08024691
7.50.0201255140.0185185190.0123456790.0174658580.00.00617283960.0370370370.061728396
7.60.0152962960.0123456790.00617283960.0145081750.00.00.0246913580.055555556
7.70.0113436220.00617283960.00617283960.0117595280.00.00.0185185190.043209877
7.80.0081502060.00617283960.00.0093231280.00.00.0123456790.030864198
7.90.00575308640.00617283960.00.00740532160.00.00.0123456790.024691358
8.00.00380452680.00.00.0056645030.00.00.00617283960.018518519
8.10.0021543210.00.00.0040036590.00.00.00617283960.012345679
8.29.979424E-40.00.00.00260620050.00.00.00.0061728396
8.30.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

80 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.5527086.2754.654.55719143.88754.68759.919.4
5.15.9967194.9753.6253.6265043.06253.71257.82515.425
5.24.764943.953.16252.88989782.41252.93756.2512.2875
5.33.7826983.13752.81252.30049541.8752.3254.9759.8
5.43.00530222.52.26251.83221981.4751.83753.9757.7375
5.52.3841791.98751.68751.45926481.13751.453.156.1625
5.61.89346871.5751.2251.16445370.8751.152.51254.925
5.71.50305631.251.03750.933198330.68750.92.03.925
5.81.19341040.98750.9250.75040680.5250.71.63.0875
5.90.94631460.78750.6750.599977550.40.551.2752.4625
6.00.75012710.6250.48750.482245150.31250.4251.01251.975
6.10.59438130.50.3750.386146520.2250.33750.81251.575
6.20.471027080.38750.350.312517260.1750.26250.651.2625
6.30.37427290.31250.28750.25290150.1250.20.5250.9875
6.40.29696040.250.20.205805540.08750.150.4250.8
6.50.234810410.20.150.166936680.06250.11250.33750.65
6.60.185518760.150.10.13586090.03750.08750.2750.525
6.70.146508340.1250.10.1110476550.0250.06250.2250.4375
6.80.115508330.08750.0750.091630230.01250.050.1750.35
6.90.090822920.0750.050.0755451550.01250.03750.13750.2875
7.00.071431250.050.03750.0619980950.00.0250.11250.2375
7.10.0561645850.03750.0250.0512882360.00.01250.08750.1875
7.20.043793750.03750.0250.0425047460.00.01250.0750.15
7.30.033991670.0250.01250.03549260.00.00.06250.125
7.40.0262333340.01250.01250.0292417460.00.00.050.1
7.50.0201395820.01250.00.0241660870.00.00.03750.0875
7.60.0153250.01250.00.0200910210.00.00.0250.0625
7.70.011368750.01250.00.0164582750.00.00.0250.05
7.80.0081895830.00.00.013193920.00.00.01250.0375
7.90.00578958350.00.00.0105160690.00.00.01250.0375
8.00.0038250.00.00.0080793620.00.00.01250.025
8.10.00216666660.00.00.0057326360.00.00.00.0125
8.20.00100208330.00.00.00372396710.00.00.00.0125
8.30.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

28 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.550835.7857145.1428576.69748543.3571434.2142869.82142822.964285
5.15.99536564.6071433.8928575.3350322.6071433.32142857.82142918.178572
5.24.7639373.6428572.92857154.25320772.02.6071436.2514.428572
5.33.7818152.8928572.32142853.38757681.57142852.07142854.96428611.535714
5.43.0047712.32142851.85714282.70054391.21428571.60714283.96428569.178572
5.52.38384251.82142851.64285722.1550380.92857141.253.17857157.321429
5.61.89311131.46428571.10714281.72035940.67857141.02.53571445.857143
5.71.5026681.17857150.892857131.37968710.50.752.03571444.642857
5.81.19295380.92857140.785714271.10939090.392857130.57142861.64285723.75
5.90.94602940.750.57142860.88805630.28571430.46428571.32142853.0
6.00.749844550.57142860.50.717363360.178571430.357142871.03571432.392857
6.10.594140770.46428570.357142870.57559650.142857150.250.857142871.8928572
6.20.47079830.357142870.28571430.467235120.107142860.178571430.67857141.5357143
6.30.374069330.28571430.214285720.379405020.0714285750.142857150.535714271.25
6.40.296819330.214285720.142857150.309287430.0357142870.107142860.428571431.0
6.50.234726890.178571430.107142860.251518580.00.0714285750.357142870.8214286
6.60.185468480.142857150.0714285750.205316870.00.0357142870.28571430.6785714
6.70.146510510.107142860.0714285750.168606280.00.0357142870.250.53571427
6.80.1155357140.0714285750.0357142870.139584750.00.0357142870.178571430.42857143
6.90.090838240.0714285750.0357142870.115565430.00.00.142857150.35714287
7.00.071424370.0357142870.00.095722270.00.00.142857150.32142857
7.10.0561638660.0357142870.00.0798160660.00.00.107142860.25
7.20.043800420.0357142870.00.066550340.00.00.0714285750.21428572
7.30.0339894970.00.00.055487960.00.00.0714285750.17857143
7.40.0262331930.00.00.0460281630.00.00.0714285750.14285715
7.50.020126050.00.00.038264550.00.00.0357142870.10714286
7.60.0153277310.00.00.032109620.00.00.0357142870.10714286
7.70.0113802520.00.00.0265224320.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.80.0081974790.00.00.0214962850.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.90.00579411770.00.00.017299680.00.00.00.035714287
8.00.00383193280.00.00.0133530510.00.00.00.035714287
8.10.0021701680.00.00.0095214940.00.00.00.035714287
8.20.0010.00.00.0061658610.00.00.00.035714287
8.30.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Variability Duration Dependence

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Duration Dependence Plot

Download CSV Here

Duration (years)MeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
1.07.5364225.03.021.0541420.02.010.030.0
4.07.5364225.04.013.0895362.03.259.2529.25
8.07.54126025.254.12510.275762.53.6259.527.625
12.07.54602865.41666654.08.9046922.83333333.83333339.58333326.416666
16.07.54126025.56254.18758.1558263.03.93759.687525.125
20.07.5364225.654.357.42195563.154.059.824.2
24.07.5527085.70833354.70833356.9177123.29166674.1259.83333323.583334
28.07.550835.7857145.1428576.69748543.3571434.2142869.82142822.964285
32.07.5527085.843754.406256.37062263.43754.281259.8437522.4375
36.07.54364545.8611114.94444476.07007463.54.33333359.88888921.88889
40.07.5527085.9254.955.85501863.554.49.92521.725
44.07.5504595.97727254.20454555.60759353.63636374.4090919.88636421.295454
48.07.5527086.04166655.1255.49970773.66666674.479166510.020.916666
52.07.54364546.09615375.2307695.4466273.67307694.4807699.86538520.307692
56.07.54000236.1428575.55.04246433.7321434.5535719.92857220.232143
60.07.5527086.16666654.8666675.01147753.76666674.58333359.96666620.3
64.07.54000236.1718754.593754.92210053.7968754.6093759.9062520.125
68.07.550836.19117645.32352924.8687273.83823544.6470599.92647119.897058
72.07.53778036.2361115.3611114.63910633.88888884.66666659.90277819.76389
76.07.5392066.2631584.68421034.62586263.8815794.68421039.85526319.736841
80.07.5527086.2754.654.55719143.88754.68759.919.4
84.07.5361126.3214295.3928574.3445743.8928574.73809539.86904719.011906
88.07.53917746.32954555.11363654.2984533.9659094.77272759.79545518.681818
92.07.53883036.33695655.0217394.30004644.04.7717399.77173918.782608
96.07.5527086.3754.61458354.2884353.98958334.80208359.77083318.791666
100.07.5364226.365.084.2219324.024.849.8118.5
200.07.53154236.75.4153.29780984.325.1559.5515.865
300.07.57413346.83333355.62.84247164.615.389.70666714.08
400.07.53154236.885.06252.54149224.64255.56759.3813.985
500.07.5364226.9968.1362.28429964.7765.7089.313.774

Simulation Stationarity

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Stationarity Plot

Moment Rate Plot

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term Model
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 1000,
  "duration": 500.0,
  "startYear": 2012,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 123456789,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Start 2012, 500 yr, kCOV\u003d1.16, No Faults, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2019_10_18-Start2012_500yr_kCOV1p16_NoFaults_Spontaneous_HistoricalCatalog",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": true,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "POISSON",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.0,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": true,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "etas_k_cov": 1.16,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 2012 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --gridded-only --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k-cov 1.16 --random-seed 123456789 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec",
  "configTime": 1571427781713
}