ComCat M7.1 (ci38457511), ShakeMap Surfaces, Log10(k)=-2.52, p=1.21, c=0.004168694, ModMag6.53 Results

ComCat M7.1 (ci38457511), ShakeMap Surfaces, Log10(k)=-2.52, p=1.21, c=0.004168694, ModMag6.53
Num Simulations100000
Start Time2019/07/06 03:19:54 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1562383194040
Duration10 Years
Includes Spontaneous?false
Trigger Ruptures270 Trigger Ruptures
First: M3.98 at 2019/07/04 17:02:55 UTC
Last: M7.1 at 2019/07/06 03:19:53 UTC
Largest: M7.1 at 2019/07/06 03:19:53 UTC
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Config Generated Withu3etas_comcat_event_config_builder.sh --event-id ci38457511 --num-simulations 100000 --days-before 7 --mag-complete 3.5 --etas-k -2.52 --etas-p 1.21 --etas-c 0.004168694 --name-add ModMag6.53 --finite-surf-shakemap --finite-surf-shakemap-min-mag 5 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec

Table Of Contents

Probabilities Summary Table

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Magnitude1 Hour Prob1 Day Prob1 Week Prob1 Month Prob1 Year Prob10 Year Prob
M≥41.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf[100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%]
M≥4.50.999 (99.95%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf[99.93% 99.96%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%]
M≥50.911 (91.12%)0.991 (99.06%)0.997 (99.69%)0.998 (99.83%)0.999 (99.92%)1.000 (99.95%)
95% Conf[90.94% 91.30%][99.00% 99.12%][99.66% 99.73%][99.81% 99.86%][99.90% 99.94%][99.94% 99.96%]
M≥5.50.520 (51.96%)0.769 (76.95%)0.839 (83.86%)0.870 (86.99%)0.899 (89.93%)0.914 (91.35%)
95% Conf[51.65% 52.27%][76.69% 77.21%][83.63% 84.08%][86.78% 87.20%][89.74% 90.12%][91.17% 91.52%]
M≥60.178 (17.84%)0.331 (33.11%)0.397 (39.71%)0.433 (43.32%)0.476 (47.60%)0.499 (49.90%)
95% Conf[17.60% 18.08%][32.82% 33.40%][39.41% 40.01%][43.02% 43.63%][47.29% 47.91%][49.59% 50.21%]
M≥6.50.043 (4.27%)0.085 (8.50%)0.106 (10.64%)0.120 (12.00%)0.136 (13.61%)0.145 (14.53%)
95% Conf[4.15% 4.40%][8.33% 8.68%][10.45% 10.83%][11.80% 12.20%][13.39% 13.82%][14.31% 14.75%]
M≥70.015 (1.55%)0.031 (3.05%)0.038 (3.81%)0.043 (4.27%)0.049 (4.92%)0.053 (5.25%)
95% Conf[1.47% 1.63%][2.95% 3.16%][3.69% 3.93%][4.15% 4.40%][4.79% 5.05%][5.12% 5.39%]
M≥7.10.013 (1.30%)0.026 (2.58%)0.032 (3.21%)0.036 (3.61%)0.041 (4.13%)0.044 (4.40%)
95% Conf[1.23% 1.37%][2.49% 2.68%][3.10% 3.32%][3.49% 3.72%][4.00% 4.25%][4.28% 4.53%]
M≥7.54.66E-3 (0.47%)9.48E-3 (0.95%)0.012 (1.16%)0.013 (1.31%)0.015 (1.51%)0.016 (1.62%)
95% Conf[0.43% 0.51%][0.89% 1.01%][1.10% 1.23%][1.24% 1.38%][1.43% 1.58%][1.54% 1.70%]
M≥81.20E-4 (0.01%)1.60E-4 (0.02%)1.80E-4 (0.02%)2.40E-4 (0.02%)2.80E-4 (0.03%)3.20E-4 (0.03%)
95% Conf[0.01% 0.02%][0.01% 0.03%][0.01% 0.03%][0.02% 0.04%][0.02% 0.04%][0.02% 0.05%]

Magnitude Number Distribution

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10 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode10 yr Probability10 yr Prob 95% Conf10 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.53484.7942540.0008115.0003041.0002886.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.222 (22.19%)1867.850
M≥2.62767.8932014.0006448.0002416.0002310.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.222 (22.19%)1483.551
M≥2.72198.5201593.0005126.0001920.0001814.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.222 (22.19%)1178.412
M≥2.81746.3581261.0004072.0001526.0001443.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.222 (22.19%)936.009
M≥2.91387.180998.0003228.0001213.0001120.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.222 (22.19%)743.552
M≥31101.770788.0002563.000964.000913.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.222 (22.19%)590.563
M≥3.1875.016622.0002041.000766.000713.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.222 (22.19%)469.000
M≥3.2694.966490.0001622.000608.000580.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.222 (22.19%)372.484
M≥3.3552.006386.0001287.000484.000452.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.222 (22.19%)295.869
M≥3.4438.450303.0001022.000385.000365.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.222 (22.19%)235.013
M≥3.5348.260238.000816.000306.000288.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.222 (22.19%)186.671
M≥3.6276.531186.000648.000243.000230.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.222 (22.19%)148.233
M≥3.7219.606145.000516.000194.000184.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.222 (22.19%)117.724
M≥3.8174.394113.000409.000154.000141.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.222 (22.19%)93.490
M≥3.9138.50588.000326.000122.000113.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.222 (22.19%)74.255
M≥4109.96968.000260.00097.00092.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.222 (22.19%)58.961
M≥4.187.31852.000207.00077.00071.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.222 (22.19%)46.817
M≥4.269.30740.000166.00062.00057.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.222 (22.19%)37.166
M≥4.354.99630.000132.00049.00045.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.222 (22.19%)29.494
M≥4.443.62023.000106.00039.00036.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.222 (22.19%)23.393
M≥4.534.59117.00084.00031.00029.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.222 (22.19%)18.554
M≥4.627.41613.00067.00024.00023.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.222 (22.19%)14.707
M≥4.721.7139.00053.00019.00018.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.222 (22.19%)11.648
M≥4.817.1897.00043.00015.00014.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.222 (22.19%)9.229
M≥4.913.5885.00034.00012.00011.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.222 (22.19%)7.300
M≥510.7273.00028.0009.0008.0001.000 (99.95%)[99.94% 99.96%]0.222 (22.19%)5.761
M≥5.18.4532.00022.0007.0006.0000.998 (99.78%)[99.75% 99.80%]0.222 (22.19%)4.537
M≥5.26.6491.00018.0006.0005.0000.992 (99.23%)[99.18% 99.29%]0.222 (22.19%)3.569
M≥5.35.2171.00015.0004.0004.0000.979 (97.90%)[97.81% 97.99%]0.222 (22.19%)2.801
M≥5.44.0780.00012.0003.0003.0000.954 (95.45%)[95.31% 95.57%]0.222 (22.19%)2.187
M≥5.53.1750.00010.0003.0002.0000.914 (91.35%)[91.17% 91.52%]0.222 (22.19%)1.706
M≥5.62.4610.0008.0002.0001.0000.853 (85.32%)[85.10% 85.54%]0.222 (22.19%)1.324
M≥5.71.8890.0007.0001.0001.0000.776 (77.58%)[77.32% 77.84%]0.222 (22.19%)1.015
M≥5.81.4360.0005.0001.0000.0000.686 (68.62%)[68.33% 68.91%]0.222 (22.19%)0.775
M≥5.91.0790.0004.0001.0000.0000.589 (58.93%)[58.63% 59.24%]0.222 (22.18%)0.584
M≥60.8290.0004.0000.0000.0000.499 (49.90%)[49.59% 50.21%]0.222 (22.17%)0.445
M≥6.10.6040.0003.0000.0000.0000.402 (40.20%)[39.90% 40.51%]0.192 (19.23%)0.328
M≥6.20.3960.0002.0000.0000.0000.292 (29.17%)[28.89% 29.46%]0.151 (15.10%)0.216
M≥6.30.2980.0002.0000.0000.0000.233 (23.27%)[23.01% 23.53%]0.129 (12.94%)0.164
M≥6.40.2270.0002.0000.0000.0000.183 (18.27%)[18.03% 18.51%]0.112 (11.25%)0.124
M≥6.50.1760.0001.0000.0000.0000.145 (14.53%)[14.31% 14.75%]0.098 (9.79%)0.097
M≥6.60.1430.0001.0000.0000.0000.124 (12.35%)[12.15% 12.56%]0.090 (9.04%)0.081
M≥6.70.1160.0001.0000.0000.0000.102 (10.22%)[10.03% 10.41%]0.079 (7.88%)0.067
M≥6.80.0930.0001.0000.0000.0000.085 (8.47%)[8.30% 8.64%]0.069 (6.86%)0.055
M≥6.90.0720.0001.0000.0000.0000.067 (6.71%)[6.55% 6.86%]0.056 (5.63%)0.043
M≥70.0550.0001.0000.0000.0000.053 (5.25%)[5.12% 5.39%]0.046 (4.59%)0.033
M≥7.10.0460.0001.0000.0000.0000.044 (4.40%)[4.28% 4.53%]0.040 (4.03%)0.027
M≥7.20.0340.0001.0000.0000.0000.033 (3.32%)[3.21% 3.43%]0.031 (3.13%)0.020
M≥7.30.0240.0000.0000.0000.0000.023 (2.34%)[2.25% 2.44%]0.022 (2.24%)0.014
M≥7.40.0210.0000.0000.0000.0000.021 (2.08%)[2.00% 2.18%]0.020 (2.05%)0.012
M≥7.50.0160.0000.0000.0000.0000.016 (1.62%)[1.54% 1.70%]0.016 (1.61%)9.41E-3
M≥7.68.59E-30.0000.0000.0000.0008.48E-3 (0.85%)[0.79% 0.91%]8.42E-3 (0.84%)4.86E-3
M≥7.72.61E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.59E-3 (0.26%)[0.23% 0.29%]2.54E-3 (0.25%)1.39E-3
M≥7.81.64E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.64E-3 (0.16%)[0.14% 0.19%]1.61E-3 (0.16%)9.00E-4
M≥7.99.30E-40.0000.0000.0000.0009.30E-4 (0.09%)[0.08% 0.11%]9.30E-4 (0.09%)4.80E-4
M≥83.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.05%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)1.70E-4
M≥8.18.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0008.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)3.00E-5
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 yr Probability1 yr Prob 95% Conf1 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.53220.2462379.0007210.0002826.0002680.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.208 (20.84%)1781.832
M≥2.62557.7771884.0005725.0002246.0002108.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.208 (20.84%)1415.227
M≥2.72031.6291492.0004548.0001785.0001675.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.208 (20.84%)1124.147
M≥2.81613.7961180.0003617.0001418.0001334.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.208 (20.84%)892.917
M≥2.91281.882933.0002873.0001127.0001070.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.208 (20.84%)709.311
M≥31018.132737.0002276.000896.000840.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.208 (20.84%)563.364
M≥3.1808.592581.0001816.000712.000678.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.208 (20.84%)447.407
M≥3.2642.213458.0001441.000566.000540.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.208 (20.84%)355.336
M≥3.3510.101360.0001146.000450.000413.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.208 (20.84%)282.251
M≥3.4405.160283.000911.000358.000332.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.208 (20.84%)224.196
M≥3.5321.822222.000724.000285.000274.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.208 (20.84%)178.090
M≥3.6255.533173.000576.000226.000211.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.208 (20.84%)141.411
M≥3.7202.938135.000458.000180.000172.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.208 (20.84%)112.312
M≥3.8161.163105.000365.000143.000135.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.208 (20.84%)89.194
M≥3.9127.98982.000291.000114.000108.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.208 (20.84%)70.841
M≥4101.62063.000232.00091.00085.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.208 (20.84%)56.249
M≥4.180.68948.000185.00072.00069.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.208 (20.84%)44.662
M≥4.264.04837.000148.00057.00053.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.208 (20.84%)35.456
M≥4.350.82128.000118.00045.00042.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.208 (20.84%)28.135
M≥4.440.31021.00094.00036.00032.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.208 (20.84%)22.314
M≥4.531.96516.00075.00029.00026.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.208 (20.84%)17.697
M≥4.625.33211.00060.00023.00022.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.208 (20.84%)14.026
M≥4.720.0628.00048.00018.00017.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.208 (20.84%)11.109
M≥4.815.8846.00039.00014.00013.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.208 (20.84%)8.802
M≥4.912.5564.00031.00011.00010.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.98% 99.99%]0.208 (20.84%)6.962
M≥59.9133.00025.0009.0008.0000.999 (99.92%)[99.90% 99.94%]0.208 (20.84%)5.493
M≥5.17.8132.00020.0007.0006.0000.997 (99.67%)[99.64% 99.71%]0.208 (20.84%)4.327
M≥5.26.1441.00017.0005.0004.0000.990 (98.97%)[98.90% 99.03%]0.208 (20.84%)3.402
M≥5.34.8210.00013.0004.0003.0000.974 (97.36%)[97.26% 97.46%]0.208 (20.84%)2.670
M≥5.43.7690.00011.0003.0002.0000.945 (94.48%)[94.34% 94.62%]0.208 (20.84%)2.084
M≥5.52.9350.0009.0002.0002.0000.899 (89.93%)[89.74% 90.12%]0.208 (20.84%)1.625
M≥5.62.2750.0007.0002.0001.0000.835 (83.48%)[83.25% 83.71%]0.208 (20.84%)1.262
M≥5.71.7460.0006.0001.0001.0000.753 (75.34%)[75.07% 75.60%]0.208 (20.84%)0.967
M≥5.81.3280.0005.0001.0000.0000.662 (66.20%)[65.90% 66.49%]0.208 (20.84%)0.738
M≥5.90.9980.0004.0001.0000.0000.565 (56.47%)[56.16% 56.78%]0.208 (20.83%)0.556
M≥60.7660.0003.0000.0000.0000.476 (47.60%)[47.29% 47.91%]0.208 (20.82%)0.424
M≥6.10.5590.0003.0000.0000.0000.382 (38.15%)[37.85% 38.45%]0.181 (18.07%)0.312
M≥6.20.3660.0002.0000.0000.0000.275 (27.50%)[27.22% 27.78%]0.141 (14.15%)0.205
M≥6.30.2760.0002.0000.0000.0000.219 (21.88%)[21.62% 22.13%]0.121 (12.13%)0.157
M≥6.40.2100.0002.0000.0000.0000.172 (17.16%)[16.92% 17.39%]0.105 (10.54%)0.118
M≥6.50.1630.0001.0000.0000.0000.136 (13.61%)[13.39% 13.82%]0.092 (9.18%)0.092
M≥6.60.1330.0001.0000.0000.0000.116 (11.56%)[11.37% 11.76%]0.085 (8.47%)0.078
M≥6.70.1080.0001.0000.0000.0000.096 (9.56%)[9.38% 9.74%]0.074 (7.38%)0.064
M≥6.80.0870.0001.0000.0000.0000.079 (7.95%)[7.78% 8.12%]0.064 (6.45%)0.052
M≥6.90.0670.0001.0000.0000.0000.063 (6.28%)[6.13% 6.43%]0.053 (5.29%)0.041
M≥70.0510.0001.0000.0000.0000.049 (4.92%)[4.79% 5.05%]0.043 (4.31%)0.032
M≥7.10.0430.0001.0000.0000.0000.041 (4.13%)[4.00% 4.25%]0.038 (3.78%)0.026
M≥7.20.0320.0001.0000.0000.0000.031 (3.10%)[3.00% 3.21%]0.029 (2.93%)0.019
M≥7.30.0220.0000.0000.0000.0000.022 (2.19%)[2.10% 2.28%]0.021 (2.09%)0.013
M≥7.40.0200.0000.0000.0000.0000.020 (1.95%)[1.87% 2.04%]0.019 (1.92%)0.012
M≥7.50.0150.0000.0000.0000.0000.015 (1.51%)[1.43% 1.58%]0.015 (1.50%)8.98E-3
M≥7.68.08E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.97E-3 (0.80%)[0.74% 0.85%]7.91E-3 (0.79%)4.64E-3
M≥7.72.42E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.40E-3 (0.24%)[0.21% 0.27%]2.35E-3 (0.24%)1.32E-3
M≥7.81.55E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.55E-3 (0.15%)[0.13% 0.18%]1.52E-3 (0.15%)8.80E-4
M≥7.98.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0008.60E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]8.60E-4 (0.09%)4.60E-4
M≥82.80E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)1.70E-4
M≥8.16.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0006.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]6.00E-5 (0.01%)3.00E-5
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Month Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 mo Probability1 mo Prob 95% Conf1 mo Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.52777.7522104.0005815.0002468.0002347.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.185 (18.50%)1627.813
M≥2.62206.3191666.0004621.0001961.0001828.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.185 (18.50%)1292.914
M≥2.71752.4841318.0003672.0001558.0001493.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.185 (18.50%)1027.002
M≥2.81392.0511042.0002916.0001239.0001161.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.185 (18.50%)815.744
M≥2.91105.741824.0002317.000984.000930.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.185 (18.50%)648.004
M≥3878.247650.0001843.000782.000735.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.185 (18.50%)514.678
M≥3.1697.502512.0001465.000622.000589.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.185 (18.50%)408.751
M≥3.2553.968403.0001164.000494.000458.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.185 (18.50%)324.629
M≥3.3440.006316.000924.000393.000368.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.185 (18.50%)257.853
M≥3.4349.484248.000734.000313.000293.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.185 (18.50%)204.818
M≥3.5277.595194.000585.000249.000234.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.185 (18.50%)162.694
M≥3.6220.418152.000467.000198.000189.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.185 (18.50%)129.184
M≥3.7175.047118.000369.000157.000149.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.185 (18.50%)102.599
M≥3.8139.00892.000295.000125.000120.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.185 (18.50%)81.481
M≥3.9110.40071.000235.00099.00094.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.185 (18.50%)64.718
M≥487.65455.000188.00079.00076.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.185 (18.50%)51.387
M≥4.169.59442.000150.00063.00060.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.185 (18.50%)40.800
M≥4.255.23832.000120.00050.00047.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.185 (18.50%)32.388
M≥4.343.83224.00096.00040.00037.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.185 (18.50%)25.703
M≥4.434.77018.00077.00031.00029.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.185 (18.50%)20.384
M≥4.527.57413.00061.00025.00024.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.185 (18.50%)16.167
M≥4.621.85110.00049.00020.00018.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.185 (18.50%)12.812
M≥4.717.3057.00040.00016.00015.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.185 (18.50%)10.145
M≥4.813.7035.00032.00012.00011.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.99% 100.00%]0.185 (18.50%)8.039
M≥4.910.8323.00026.00010.0008.0001.000 (99.97%)[99.96% 99.98%]0.185 (18.50%)6.360
M≥58.5502.00021.0008.0007.0000.998 (99.83%)[99.81% 99.86%]0.185 (18.50%)5.017
M≥5.16.7411.00017.0006.0005.0000.994 (99.42%)[99.37% 99.47%]0.185 (18.50%)3.953
M≥5.25.3001.00014.0005.0004.0000.984 (98.37%)[98.29% 98.45%]0.185 (18.50%)3.108
M≥5.34.1580.00012.0004.0003.0000.962 (96.18%)[96.06% 96.30%]0.185 (18.50%)2.438
M≥5.43.2500.00010.0003.0002.0000.925 (92.47%)[92.30% 92.63%]0.185 (18.50%)1.902
M≥5.52.5310.0008.0002.0001.0000.870 (86.99%)[86.78% 87.20%]0.185 (18.50%)1.484
M≥5.61.9620.0007.0002.0001.0000.797 (79.70%)[79.45% 79.95%]0.185 (18.50%)1.151
M≥5.71.5050.0005.0001.0001.0000.710 (71.00%)[70.72% 71.28%]0.185 (18.50%)0.882
M≥5.81.1430.0004.0001.0000.0000.616 (61.60%)[61.30% 61.90%]0.185 (18.50%)0.672
M≥5.90.8600.0004.0001.0000.0000.520 (51.98%)[51.67% 52.29%]0.185 (18.49%)0.507
M≥60.6600.0003.0000.0000.0000.433 (43.32%)[43.02% 43.63%]0.185 (18.48%)0.386
M≥6.10.4810.0003.0000.0000.0000.344 (34.39%)[34.09% 34.68%]0.161 (16.08%)0.284
M≥6.20.3160.0002.0000.0000.0000.245 (24.53%)[24.26% 24.80%]0.125 (12.53%)0.187
M≥6.30.2380.0002.0000.0000.0000.194 (19.43%)[19.19% 19.68%]0.107 (10.74%)0.143
M≥6.40.1810.0001.0000.0000.0000.152 (15.16%)[14.93% 15.38%]0.093 (9.33%)0.107
M≥6.50.1410.0001.0000.0000.0000.120 (12.00%)[11.80% 12.20%]0.081 (8.12%)0.084
M≥6.60.1150.0001.0000.0000.0000.102 (10.20%)[10.01% 10.39%]0.075 (7.52%)0.071
M≥6.70.0930.0001.0000.0000.0000.084 (8.43%)[8.26% 8.60%]0.065 (6.55%)0.058
M≥6.80.0760.0001.0000.0000.0000.070 (6.99%)[6.84% 7.15%]0.057 (5.69%)0.048
M≥6.90.0580.0001.0000.0000.0000.055 (5.49%)[5.35% 5.63%]0.046 (4.64%)0.037
M≥70.0440.0001.0000.0000.0000.043 (4.27%)[4.15% 4.40%]0.037 (3.75%)0.029
M≥7.10.0370.0001.0000.0000.0000.036 (3.61%)[3.49% 3.72%]0.033 (3.31%)0.024
M≥7.20.0280.0001.0000.0000.0000.027 (2.70%)[2.60% 2.80%]0.025 (2.55%)0.017
M≥7.30.0190.0000.0000.0000.0000.019 (1.90%)[1.81% 1.98%]0.018 (1.81%)0.012
M≥7.40.0170.0000.0000.0000.0000.017 (1.69%)[1.62% 1.78%]0.017 (1.66%)0.011
M≥7.50.0130.0000.0000.0000.0000.013 (1.31%)[1.24% 1.38%]0.013 (1.30%)8.28E-3
M≥7.67.00E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.94E-3 (0.69%)[0.64% 0.75%]6.88E-3 (0.69%)4.23E-3
M≥7.72.09E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.07E-3 (0.21%)[0.18% 0.24%]2.02E-3 (0.20%)1.19E-3
M≥7.81.36E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.36E-3 (0.14%)[0.11% 0.16%]1.33E-3 (0.13%)8.00E-4
M≥7.97.50E-40.0000.0000.0000.0007.50E-4 (0.07%)[0.06% 0.09%]7.50E-4 (0.07%)4.10E-4
M≥82.40E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.02% 0.04%]2.40E-4 (0.02%)1.40E-4
M≥8.15.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0005.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]5.00E-5 (0.01%)2.00E-5
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Week Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 wk Probability1 wk Prob 95% Conf1 wk Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.52431.6231878.0004852.0002182.0002068.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.166 (16.58%)1496.091
M≥2.61931.4131487.0003851.0001734.0001649.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.166 (16.58%)1188.313
M≥2.71534.1781176.0003057.0001378.0001284.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.166 (16.58%)943.937
M≥2.81218.631930.0002426.0001095.0001029.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.166 (16.58%)749.747
M≥2.9968.025735.0001929.000871.000811.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.166 (16.58%)595.599
M≥3768.840579.0001531.000692.000649.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.166 (16.58%)473.048
M≥3.1610.600456.0001218.000550.000526.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.166 (16.58%)375.674
M≥3.2484.939359.000968.000437.000416.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.166 (16.58%)298.359
M≥3.3385.178281.000770.000348.000329.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.166 (16.58%)236.986
M≥3.4305.921221.000614.000277.000263.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.166 (16.58%)188.235
M≥3.5242.998173.000490.000220.000214.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.166 (16.58%)149.526
M≥3.6192.947135.000389.000175.000166.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.166 (16.58%)118.728
M≥3.7153.228105.000310.000139.000133.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.166 (16.58%)94.295
M≥3.8121.68281.000247.000111.000107.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.166 (16.58%)74.891
M≥3.996.63963.000197.00088.00082.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.166 (16.58%)59.480
M≥476.73048.000157.00070.00065.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.166 (16.58%)47.232
M≥4.160.92237.000126.00056.00052.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.166 (16.58%)37.502
M≥4.248.35228.000101.00044.00042.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.166 (16.58%)29.769
M≥4.338.36621.00080.00035.00034.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.166 (16.58%)23.624
M≥4.430.42916.00064.00028.00025.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.166 (16.58%)18.732
M≥4.524.13111.00052.00022.00020.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.166 (16.58%)14.856
M≥4.619.1228.00042.00017.00016.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.166 (16.58%)11.773
M≥4.715.1426.00034.00014.00012.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.99% 100.00%]0.166 (16.58%)9.323
M≥4.811.9954.00027.00011.00010.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.98% 99.99%]0.166 (16.58%)7.388
M≥4.99.4843.00022.0009.0008.0000.999 (99.94%)[99.92% 99.95%]0.166 (16.58%)5.846
M≥57.4832.00018.0007.0006.0000.997 (99.69%)[99.66% 99.73%]0.166 (16.58%)4.610
M≥5.15.9001.00015.0005.0004.0000.990 (99.02%)[98.96% 99.08%]0.166 (16.58%)3.632
M≥5.24.6381.00012.0004.0003.0000.975 (97.50%)[97.41% 97.60%]0.166 (16.58%)2.856
M≥5.33.6390.00010.0003.0003.0000.947 (94.67%)[94.53% 94.81%]0.166 (16.58%)2.241
M≥5.42.8450.0008.0002.0002.0000.901 (90.14%)[89.95% 90.32%]0.166 (16.58%)1.750
M≥5.52.2160.0007.0002.0001.0000.839 (83.86%)[83.63% 84.08%]0.166 (16.58%)1.365
M≥5.61.7170.0006.0001.0001.0000.760 (75.98%)[75.71% 76.24%]0.166 (16.58%)1.059
M≥5.71.3170.0005.0001.0000.0000.669 (66.90%)[66.61% 67.19%]0.166 (16.58%)0.811
M≥5.81.0000.0004.0001.0000.0000.575 (57.45%)[57.15% 57.76%]0.166 (16.58%)0.618
M≥5.90.7530.0003.0000.0000.0000.480 (48.02%)[47.71% 48.33%]0.166 (16.58%)0.466
M≥60.5770.0003.0000.0000.0000.397 (39.71%)[39.41% 40.01%]0.166 (16.57%)0.355
M≥6.10.4210.0002.0000.0000.0000.312 (31.22%)[30.94% 31.51%]0.144 (14.42%)0.261
M≥6.20.2750.0002.0000.0000.0000.220 (21.98%)[21.72% 22.23%]0.112 (11.21%)0.171
M≥6.30.2080.0002.0000.0000.0000.173 (17.34%)[17.11% 17.58%]0.096 (9.61%)0.131
M≥6.40.1580.0001.0000.0000.0000.135 (13.46%)[13.25% 13.67%]0.083 (8.35%)0.098
M≥6.50.1220.0001.0000.0000.0000.106 (10.64%)[10.45% 10.83%]0.073 (7.28%)0.077
M≥6.60.1010.0001.0000.0000.0000.091 (9.06%)[8.88% 9.24%]0.067 (6.74%)0.065
M≥6.70.0820.0001.0000.0000.0000.075 (7.49%)[7.32% 7.65%]0.059 (5.88%)0.054
M≥6.80.0670.0001.0000.0000.0000.062 (6.23%)[6.08% 6.38%]0.051 (5.12%)0.044
M≥6.90.0510.0001.0000.0000.0000.049 (4.87%)[4.74% 5.01%]0.042 (4.16%)0.034
M≥70.0390.0001.0000.0000.0000.038 (3.81%)[3.69% 3.93%]0.034 (3.36%)0.027
M≥7.10.0330.0001.0000.0000.0000.032 (3.21%)[3.10% 3.32%]0.030 (2.95%)0.022
M≥7.20.0240.0000.0000.0000.0000.024 (2.39%)[2.30% 2.49%]0.023 (2.26%)0.016
M≥7.30.0170.0000.0000.0000.0000.017 (1.67%)[1.59% 1.75%]0.016 (1.60%)0.011
M≥7.40.0150.0000.0000.0000.0000.015 (1.50%)[1.42% 1.58%]0.015 (1.47%)0.010
M≥7.50.0120.0000.0000.0000.0000.012 (1.16%)[1.10% 1.23%]0.012 (1.16%)7.80E-3
M≥7.66.14E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.10E-3 (0.61%)[0.56% 0.66%]6.04E-3 (0.60%)3.98E-3
M≥7.71.80E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.78E-3 (0.18%)[0.15% 0.21%]1.73E-3 (0.17%)1.14E-3
M≥7.81.14E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.14E-3 (0.11%)[0.09% 0.14%]1.11E-3 (0.11%)7.60E-4
M≥7.96.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0006.20E-4 (0.06%)[0.05% 0.08%]6.20E-4 (0.06%)3.90E-4
M≥81.80E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.80E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]1.80E-4 (0.02%)1.30E-4
M≥8.14.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)2.00E-5
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Day Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 d Probability1 d Prob 95% Conf1 d Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.51882.1281507.0003488.0001719.0001628.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.134 (13.44%)1264.128
M≥2.61494.9601192.0002770.0001366.0001323.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.134 (13.44%)1004.066
M≥2.71187.472941.0002201.0001085.0001053.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.134 (13.44%)797.572
M≥2.8943.202743.0001750.000863.000831.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.134 (13.44%)633.473
M≥2.9749.257586.0001390.000686.000656.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.134 (13.44%)503.221
M≥3595.074461.0001103.000545.000533.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.134 (13.44%)399.683
M≥3.1472.622363.000877.000434.000418.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.134 (13.44%)317.414
M≥3.2375.385284.000697.000345.000329.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.134 (13.44%)252.105
M≥3.3298.161223.000553.000274.000268.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.134 (13.44%)200.246
M≥3.4236.797174.000439.000218.000213.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.134 (13.44%)159.047
M≥3.5188.088136.000350.000173.000167.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.134 (13.44%)126.335
M≥3.6149.342106.000278.000138.000131.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.134 (13.44%)100.305
M≥3.7118.60282.000222.000110.000106.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.134 (13.44%)79.663
M≥3.894.19063.000177.00087.00085.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.134 (13.44%)63.269
M≥3.974.80849.000140.00069.00065.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.134 (13.44%)50.245
M≥459.40137.000112.00055.00052.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.134 (13.44%)39.902
M≥4.147.16528.00090.00044.00043.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.134 (13.44%)31.686
M≥4.237.43021.00072.00035.00033.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.134 (13.44%)25.148
M≥4.329.70716.00058.00028.00027.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.134 (13.44%)19.961
M≥4.423.55812.00046.00022.00020.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.134 (13.44%)15.827
M≥4.518.6898.00038.00017.00016.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.134 (13.44%)12.553
M≥4.614.8046.00031.00014.00013.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.99% 100.00%]0.134 (13.44%)9.944
M≥4.711.7244.00025.00011.00010.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.98% 99.99%]0.134 (13.44%)7.876
M≥4.89.2883.00020.0008.0007.0000.999 (99.94%)[99.92% 99.95%]0.134 (13.44%)6.242
M≥4.97.3442.00017.0007.0006.0000.997 (99.71%)[99.68% 99.74%]0.134 (13.44%)4.939
M≥55.7961.00014.0005.0005.0000.991 (99.06%)[99.00% 99.12%]0.134 (13.44%)3.897
M≥5.14.5661.00012.0004.0003.0000.977 (97.65%)[97.56% 97.74%]0.134 (13.44%)3.070
M≥5.23.5910.00010.0003.0003.0000.950 (94.99%)[94.85% 95.12%]0.134 (13.44%)2.415
M≥5.32.8160.0008.0002.0002.0000.906 (90.57%)[90.39% 90.75%]0.134 (13.44%)1.894
M≥5.42.2000.0007.0002.0001.0000.844 (84.43%)[84.20% 84.65%]0.134 (13.44%)1.477
M≥5.51.7140.0006.0001.0001.0000.769 (76.95%)[76.69% 77.21%]0.134 (13.44%)1.153
M≥5.61.3280.0005.0001.0001.0000.682 (68.25%)[67.96% 68.53%]0.134 (13.44%)0.895
M≥5.71.0190.0004.0001.0000.0000.588 (58.79%)[58.49% 59.10%]0.134 (13.44%)0.685
M≥5.80.7740.0003.0000.0000.0000.495 (49.55%)[49.24% 49.86%]0.134 (13.44%)0.523
M≥5.90.5830.0003.0000.0000.0000.407 (40.73%)[40.42% 41.03%]0.134 (13.44%)0.394
M≥60.4460.0002.0000.0000.0000.331 (33.11%)[32.82% 33.40%]0.134 (13.43%)0.300
M≥6.10.3250.0002.0000.0000.0000.257 (25.67%)[25.40% 25.94%]0.117 (11.73%)0.221
M≥6.20.2120.0002.0000.0000.0000.178 (17.76%)[17.53% 18.00%]0.091 (9.05%)0.144
M≥6.30.1610.0001.0000.0000.0000.139 (13.94%)[13.73% 14.16%]0.078 (7.76%)0.110
M≥6.40.1220.0001.0000.0000.0000.108 (10.76%)[10.57% 10.96%]0.067 (6.74%)0.083
M≥6.50.0950.0001.0000.0000.0000.085 (8.50%)[8.33% 8.68%]0.059 (5.89%)0.065
M≥6.60.0790.0001.0000.0000.0000.073 (7.28%)[7.12% 7.45%]0.055 (5.48%)0.056
M≥6.70.0650.0001.0000.0000.0000.060 (6.03%)[5.88% 6.18%]0.048 (4.78%)0.046
M≥6.80.0530.0001.0000.0000.0000.050 (5.01%)[4.87% 5.15%]0.042 (4.16%)0.038
M≥6.90.0410.0001.0000.0000.0000.039 (3.92%)[3.80% 4.04%]0.034 (3.37%)0.030
M≥70.0310.0001.0000.0000.0000.031 (3.05%)[2.95% 3.16%]0.027 (2.72%)0.023
M≥7.10.0260.0001.0000.0000.0000.026 (2.58%)[2.49% 2.68%]0.024 (2.39%)0.019
M≥7.20.0190.0000.0000.0000.0000.019 (1.92%)[1.84% 2.01%]0.018 (1.82%)0.014
M≥7.30.0130.0000.0000.0000.0000.013 (1.33%)[1.26% 1.41%]0.013 (1.28%)9.66E-3
M≥7.40.0120.0000.0000.0000.0000.012 (1.20%)[1.14% 1.27%]0.012 (1.18%)8.68E-3
M≥7.59.57E-30.0000.0000.0000.0009.48E-3 (0.95%)[0.89% 1.01%]9.41E-3 (0.94%)6.84E-3
M≥7.64.98E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.95E-3 (0.50%)[0.45% 0.54%]4.89E-3 (0.49%)3.51E-3
M≥7.71.44E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.42E-3 (0.14%)[0.12% 0.17%]1.37E-3 (0.14%)9.70E-4
M≥7.89.40E-40.0000.0000.0000.0009.40E-4 (0.09%)[0.08% 0.12%]9.10E-4 (0.09%)6.50E-4
M≥7.95.10E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.10E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]5.10E-4 (0.05%)3.30E-4
M≥81.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)1.20E-4
M≥8.14.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)2.00E-5
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Hour Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 hr Probability1 hr Prob 95% Conf1 hr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5863.383746.0001203.000827.000813.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.068 (6.76%)719.125
M≥2.6685.812588.000955.000657.000647.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.068 (6.76%)571.212
M≥2.7544.768463.000760.000523.000512.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.068 (6.76%)453.728
M≥2.8432.729364.000603.000416.000408.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.068 (6.76%)360.411
M≥2.9343.766286.000480.000330.000328.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.068 (6.76%)286.308
M≥3273.000224.000382.000263.000254.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.068 (6.76%)227.367
M≥3.1216.827175.000304.000209.000201.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.068 (6.76%)180.561
M≥3.2172.222136.000242.000166.000163.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.068 (6.76%)143.425
M≥3.3136.792106.000193.000132.000131.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.068 (6.76%)113.916
M≥3.4108.63682.000155.000105.000105.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.068 (6.76%)90.467
M≥3.586.28663.000124.00083.00080.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.068 (6.76%)71.852
M≥3.668.51449.00099.00066.00064.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.068 (6.76%)57.053
M≥3.754.42537.00080.00053.00053.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.068 (6.76%)45.323
M≥3.843.22028.00065.00042.00041.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.068 (6.76%)35.995
M≥3.934.32121.00053.00033.00032.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.068 (6.76%)28.579
M≥427.24916.00043.00026.00025.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.068 (6.76%)22.690
M≥4.121.63312.00035.00021.00019.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.068 (6.76%)18.016
M≥4.217.1639.00029.00016.00015.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.068 (6.76%)14.293
M≥4.313.6206.00024.00013.00012.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.99% 100.00%]0.068 (6.76%)11.342
M≥4.410.8024.00020.00010.00010.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.068 (6.76%)8.991
M≥4.58.5693.00016.0008.0008.0000.999 (99.95%)[99.93% 99.96%]0.068 (6.76%)7.132
M≥4.66.7882.00014.0006.0006.0000.998 (99.78%)[99.75% 99.81%]0.068 (6.76%)5.653
M≥4.75.3781.00012.0005.0005.0000.992 (99.21%)[99.15% 99.26%]0.068 (6.76%)4.478
M≥4.84.2591.00010.0004.0003.0000.979 (97.91%)[97.82% 98.00%]0.068 (6.76%)3.548
M≥4.93.3670.0008.0003.0003.0000.953 (95.32%)[95.19% 95.45%]0.068 (6.76%)2.805
M≥52.6570.0007.0002.0002.0000.911 (91.12%)[90.94% 91.30%]0.068 (6.76%)2.211
M≥5.12.0910.0006.0002.0001.0000.854 (85.43%)[85.21% 85.65%]0.068 (6.76%)1.741
M≥5.21.6440.0005.0001.0001.0000.782 (78.21%)[77.96% 78.47%]0.068 (6.76%)1.369
M≥5.31.2880.0004.0001.0001.0000.699 (69.87%)[69.58% 70.15%]0.068 (6.76%)1.073
M≥5.41.0060.0004.0001.0000.0000.610 (60.97%)[60.66% 61.27%]0.068 (6.76%)0.838
M≥5.50.7830.0003.0001.0000.0000.520 (51.96%)[51.65% 52.27%]0.068 (6.76%)0.653
M≥5.60.6080.0003.0000.0000.0000.435 (43.50%)[43.19% 43.81%]0.068 (6.76%)0.507
M≥5.70.4660.0002.0000.0000.0000.355 (35.52%)[35.22% 35.82%]0.068 (6.76%)0.388
M≥5.80.3550.0002.0000.0000.0000.285 (28.53%)[28.25% 28.81%]0.068 (6.76%)0.296
M≥5.90.2680.0002.0000.0000.0000.225 (22.54%)[22.28% 22.80%]0.068 (6.75%)0.223
M≥60.2050.0001.0000.0000.0000.178 (17.84%)[17.60% 18.08%]0.068 (6.75%)0.171
M≥6.10.1510.0001.0000.0000.0000.135 (13.52%)[13.31% 13.74%]0.060 (5.98%)0.126
M≥6.20.0980.0001.0000.0000.0000.091 (9.09%)[8.91% 9.27%]0.046 (4.60%)0.082
M≥6.30.0750.0001.0000.0000.0000.071 (7.08%)[6.92% 7.24%]0.040 (3.96%)0.063
M≥6.40.0570.0001.0000.0000.0000.054 (5.41%)[5.27% 5.55%]0.035 (3.45%)0.048
M≥6.50.0450.0001.0000.0000.0000.043 (4.27%)[4.15% 4.40%]0.030 (3.02%)0.038
M≥6.60.0380.0001.0000.0000.0000.037 (3.67%)[3.55% 3.78%]0.028 (2.82%)0.032
M≥6.70.0310.0001.0000.0000.0000.030 (3.04%)[2.93% 3.15%]0.025 (2.46%)0.027
M≥6.80.0260.0001.0000.0000.0000.026 (2.55%)[2.46% 2.65%]0.021 (2.14%)0.022
M≥6.90.0200.0000.0000.0000.0000.020 (2.01%)[1.92% 2.10%]0.017 (1.75%)0.018
M≥70.0160.0000.0000.0000.0000.015 (1.55%)[1.47% 1.63%]0.014 (1.40%)0.013
M≥7.10.0130.0000.0000.0000.0000.013 (1.30%)[1.23% 1.37%]0.012 (1.21%)0.011
M≥7.29.48E-30.0000.0000.0000.0009.40E-3 (0.94%)[0.88% 1.00%]8.99E-3 (0.90%)7.99E-3
M≥7.36.57E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.52E-3 (0.65%)[0.60% 0.70%]6.34E-3 (0.63%)5.57E-3
M≥7.45.95E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.90E-3 (0.59%)[0.54% 0.64%]5.85E-3 (0.58%)5.02E-3
M≥7.54.70E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.66E-3 (0.47%)[0.43% 0.51%]4.65E-3 (0.46%)3.91E-3
M≥7.62.41E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.39E-3 (0.24%)[0.21% 0.27%]2.38E-3 (0.24%)1.93E-3
M≥7.76.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0006.50E-4 (0.07%)[0.05% 0.08%]6.50E-4 (0.07%)5.20E-4
M≥7.84.70E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.70E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.06%]4.70E-4 (0.05%)3.70E-4
M≥7.92.80E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)2.30E-4
M≥81.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)9.00E-5
M≥8.13.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0003.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]3.00E-5 (0.00%)2.00E-5
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Hazard Change Over Time

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These plots show how the probability of ruptures of various magnitudes within the region used to fetch ComCat trigger ruptures changes over time

M≥5.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard ChangeGain
Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour0.908 [0.906 - 0.910]0.9083.02E-530038.853.00E-5
1 Day0.990 [0.989 - 0.990]0.9907.25E-41365.037.20E-4
1 Week0.997 [0.996 - 0.997]0.9975.07E-3196.775.03E-3
1 Month0.998 [0.998 - 0.998]0.9980.02246.370.021
1 Year0.999 [0.999 - 0.999]0.9990.2334.290.231
10 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000]0.9990.9291.080.928
30 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **1.0001 *1.000
100 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **1.0001 *1.000

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥6.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard ChangeGain
Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour0.175 [0.172 - 0.177]0.1753.50E-649867.373.28E-6
1 Day0.324 [0.321 - 0.327]0.3248.40E-53858.047.86E-5
1 Week0.389 [0.386 - 0.392]0.3885.88E-4661.295.50E-4
1 Month0.425 [0.422 - 0.428]0.4242.52E-3168.942.36E-3
1 Year0.482 [0.479 - 0.485]0.4660.03015.950.028
10 Years0.624 [0.621 - 0.626]0.4880.2642.360.250
30 Years0.797 [0.796 - 0.798] **0.6031.32 *0.577
100 Years0.977 [0.977 - 0.977] **0.9561.02 *0.943

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥7.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard ChangeGain
Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour0.015 [0.015 - 0.016]0.0153.60E-742482.193.21E-7
1 Day0.030 [0.029 - 0.031]0.0308.64E-63472.787.71E-6
1 Week0.037 [0.036 - 0.038]0.0376.05E-5616.695.39E-5
1 Month0.042 [0.041 - 0.043]0.0422.59E-4162.012.31E-4
1 Year0.051 [0.050 - 0.052]0.0483.15E-316.172.81E-3
10 Years0.081 [0.079 - 0.082]0.0510.0312.590.028
30 Years0.139 [0.138 - 0.140] **0.0931.5 *0.081
100 Years0.330 [0.329 - 0.331] **0.2941.12 *0.245

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥8.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard ChangeGain
Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour1.20E-4 [6.50E-5 - 2.16E-4]1.20E-41.24E-89704.871.06E-8
1 Day1.60E-4 [9.50E-5 - 2.66E-4]1.60E-42.97E-7540.12.54E-7
1 Week1.82E-4 [1.12E-4 - 2.93E-4]1.80E-42.08E-687.641.78E-6
1 Month2.39E-4 [1.58E-4 - 3.60E-4]2.30E-48.90E-626.837.63E-6
1 Year3.68E-4 [2.82E-4 - 4.95E-4]2.60E-41.08E-43.49.29E-5
10 Years1.38E-3 [1.29E-3 - 1.51E-3]2.80E-41.10E-31.259.29E-4
30 Years3.78E-3 [3.69E-3 - 3.91E-3] **3.50E-31.08 *2.78E-3
100 Years0.014 [0.014 - 0.014] **0.0141.02 *9.25E-3

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

Trigger Rupture Fault Map

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Map

Trigger Rupture Depth Map

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Map

Fault Distances To Triggers

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Section NameStrike, Dip, Rake# Hypos In PolyMax Mag w/ Hypo In Poly# Surfs In PolyMax Mag w/ Surf In PolyMin Dist To Any (km)Min Poly Dist To Any (km)Min Dist To Largest (km)Min Poly Dist To Largest (km)Min Hypo Dist To Largest (km)Min Hypo Poly Dist To Largest (km)
Airport Lake359, 50, -90917.1917.10.0360.0000.0360.0005.6120.000
Little Lake327, 90, 180153.75167.12.2680.00011.2840.00013.4711.469
Garlock (Central)71, 90, 022.7637.15.6000.0005.6000.00022.76610.797
So Sierra Nevada2, 50, -90004.2484.2334.2484.23316.19115.188
Tank Canyon189, 50, -90009.0159.0119.0159.01117.03916.895
Blackwater323, 90, 1800014.3948.72614.3948.72629.62227.613

Individual Simulated Catalog Maps

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These are map plots of individual catalogs from the simulations, selected as the closest catalog to each of the given percentiles in terms of total number of events.

Durationp0.0 %-ilep25.0 %-ilep50.0 %-ilep75.0 %-ilep90.0 %-ilep95.0 %-ilep97.5 %-ilep98.0 %-ilep99.0 %-ilep99.5 %-ilep99.9 %-ilep100.0 %-ile
1 WeekMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap
1 MonthMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap
1 YearMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap
10 YearMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap

ComCat Data Comparisons

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These plots compare simulated sequences with data from ComCat. All plots only consider events with hypocenters inside the ComCat region defined in the JSON input file.

Last updated at 2021/10/16 17:35:56 UTC, 2.3 years after the simulation start time.

Total matching ComCat events found: 2625

ComCat Magnitude-Number Distributions

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Incremental MNDCumulative MND
Incremental MNDCumi MND

ComCat Magnitude-Time Functions

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These plots show the show the magnitude versus time probability function since simulation start. Observed event data lie on top, with those input to the simulation plotted as magenta circles and those that occurred after the simulation start time as cyan circles. Time is relative to the mainshock (M7.1, ci38457511, plotted as a brown circle). Probabilities are only shown above the minimum simulated magnitude, M=2.5.

One Week
One Month
Full Mag/Time

ComCat Time-Dependent Mc

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The following plots compare simulation results with ComCat data above a magnitude threshold. Plots labeled as M≥Mc(t) use the time-dependent magnitude of completeness (Mc) defined in Helmstetter et al. (2006), which is plotted below. In the case of multiple M≥5 ruptures, either as input to the simulation or in the comparison data, the maximum calculated time-dependent Mc is used. This time-dependent Mc function is plotted below.

TD MC

ComCat Cumulative Number Vs Time

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M≥Mc(t)M≥3.5M≥4M≥5M≥6M≥7
MNDMNDMNDMNDMNDMND

ComCat Cumulative Number Simulation Percentiles

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MND

ComCat Probability Spatial Distribution

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1 Day1 Week1 Month1 YearCurrent (2.3 Year)
M≥Mc(t)MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 332Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 846Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 1229Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 1645Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 1761
M≥3.5MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 244Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 304Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 332Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 375Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 386
M≥4MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 65Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 77Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 83Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 90Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 92
M≥5MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 98.98%, Actual: 2Prob: 99.66%, Actual: 2Prob: 99.81%, Actual: 2Prob: 99.91%, Actual: 3Prob: 99.93%, Actual: 3
M≥6MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 32.26%, Actual: 0Prob: 38.67%, Actual: 0Prob: 42.19%, Actual: 0Prob: 46.39%, Actual: 0Prob: 47.33%, Actual: 0
M≥7MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 2.97%, Actual: 0Prob: 3.67%, Actual: 0Prob: 4.12%, Actual: 0Prob: 4.72%, Actual: 0Prob: 4.86%, Actual: 0
M≥8MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 0.02%, Actual: 0Prob: 0.02%, Actual: 0Prob: 0.02%, Actual: 0Prob: 0.03%, Actual: 0Prob: 0.03%, Actual: 0

ComCat Mean Expectation Spatial Distribution

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1 Day1 Week1 Month1 YearCurrent (2.3 Year)
M≥Mc(t)MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 309.939, Actual: 332Mean: 809.984, Actual: 846Mean: 1126.551, Actual: 1229Mean: 1527.099, Actual: 1645Mean: 1624.760, Actual: 1761
M≥3.5MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 180.223, Actual: 244Mean: 231.065, Actual: 304Mean: 262.703, Actual: 332Mean: 302.735, Actual: 375Mean: 312.482, Actual: 386
M≥4MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 56.911, Actual: 65Mean: 72.954, Actual: 77Mean: 82.943, Actual: 83Mean: 95.585, Actual: 90Mean: 98.654, Actual: 92
M≥5MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 5.544, Actual: 2Mean: 7.104, Actual: 2Mean: 8.077, Actual: 2Mean: 9.308, Actual: 3Mean: 9.608, Actual: 3
M≥6MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 0.418, Actual: 0Mean: 0.536, Actual: 0Mean: 0.609, Actual: 0Mean: 0.703, Actual: 0Mean: 0.725, Actual: 0
M≥7MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 0.030, Actual: 0Mean: 0.037, Actual: 0Mean: 0.042, Actual: 0Mean: 0.049, Actual: 0Mean: 0.050, Actual: 0
M≥8MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 1.60E-4, Actual: 0Mean: 1.80E-4, Actual: 0Mean: 2.30E-4, Actual: 0Mean: 2.60E-4, Actual: 0Mean: 2.60E-4, Actual: 0

ComCat Depth Distribution

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M≥Mc(t)M≥3.5M≥4M≥5M≥6M≥7M≥8
Depth DistributionDepth DistributionDepth DistributionDepth DistributionDepth DistributionDepth DistributionDepth Distribution

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min Mag1 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)10 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)10 yr Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 182 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
Garlock (Central)0.099710.059 (5.90%)[5.76% 6.05%]0.072 (7.24%)[7.08% 7.40%]0.081 (8.06%)[7.89% 8.23%]0.091 (9.09%)[8.92% 9.27%]0.097 (9.69%)[9.51% 9.87%]0.06326
Tank Canyon0.070310.032 (3.17%)[3.06% 3.28%]0.042 (4.19%)[4.07% 4.32%]0.048 (4.84%)[4.71% 4.97%]0.057 (5.71%)[5.57% 5.86%]0.062 (6.24%)[6.09% 6.39%]0.02409
Little Lake0.046290.028 (2.84%)[2.74% 2.94%]0.034 (3.44%)[3.33% 3.56%]0.038 (3.81%)[3.70% 3.93%]0.043 (4.26%)[4.14% 4.39%]0.045 (4.54%)[4.41% 4.67%]0.03066
Airport Lake0.040150.026 (2.63%)[2.53% 2.73%]0.032 (3.16%)[3.05% 3.27%]0.035 (3.46%)[3.35% 3.57%]0.038 (3.79%)[3.68% 3.91%]0.040 (4.00%)[3.88% 4.12%]0.02935
Owl Lake0.02850.013 (1.31%)[1.24% 1.38%]0.017 (1.74%)[1.66% 1.82%]0.020 (2.01%)[1.92% 2.10%]0.024 (2.38%)[2.29% 2.48%]0.026 (2.58%)[2.48% 2.68%]0.00973
Panamint Valley0.021370.011 (1.13%)[1.07% 1.20%]0.014 (1.45%)[1.38% 1.52%]0.017 (1.65%)[1.57% 1.73%]0.019 (1.94%)[1.85% 2.02%]0.021 (2.10%)[2.01% 2.19%]0.00968
Garlock (East)0.01777.91E-3 (0.79%)[0.74% 0.85%]0.011 (1.08%)[1.02% 1.15%]0.013 (1.26%)[1.19% 1.33%]0.015 (1.51%)[1.43% 1.58%]0.016 (1.64%)[1.56% 1.72%]0.00632
Hunter Mountain-Saline Valley0.010526.11E-3 (0.61%)[0.56% 0.66%]7.46E-3 (0.75%)[0.69% 0.80%]8.37E-3 (0.84%)[0.78% 0.90%]9.65E-3 (0.97%)[0.91% 1.03%]0.010 (1.04%)[0.98% 1.11%]0.00571
Blackwater0.007173.08E-3 (0.31%)[0.28% 0.34%]4.19E-3 (0.42%)[0.38% 0.46%]5.13E-3 (0.51%)[0.47% 0.56%]6.33E-3 (0.63%)[0.59% 0.68%]6.94E-3 (0.69%)[0.64% 0.75%]0.00214
Ash Hill0.007072.87E-3 (0.29%)[0.26% 0.32%]4.20E-3 (0.42%)[0.38% 0.46%]5.00E-3 (0.50%)[0.46% 0.55%]6.04E-3 (0.60%)[0.56% 0.65%]6.79E-3 (0.68%)[0.63% 0.73%]0.00145

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 150 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
Garlock (Central)0.042270.025 (2.47%)[2.37% 2.57%]0.031 (3.06%)[2.96% 3.17%]0.034 (3.44%)[3.33% 3.55%]0.039 (3.92%)[3.80% 4.05%]0.042 (4.18%)[4.06% 4.31%]0.02605
Airport Lake0.030570.020 (2.01%)[1.92% 2.10%]0.024 (2.40%)[2.31% 2.50%]0.026 (2.64%)[2.54% 2.74%]0.029 (2.89%)[2.79% 3.00%]0.031 (3.05%)[2.95% 3.16%]0.0225
Little Lake0.028740.018 (1.80%)[1.72% 1.89%]0.022 (2.17%)[2.09% 2.27%]0.024 (2.41%)[2.31% 2.50%]0.027 (2.67%)[2.58% 2.78%]0.028 (2.84%)[2.74% 2.95%]0.01975
Panamint Valley0.019980.011 (1.09%)[1.03% 1.16%]0.014 (1.38%)[1.31% 1.45%]0.016 (1.56%)[1.48% 1.64%]0.018 (1.82%)[1.74% 1.91%]0.020 (1.97%)[1.89% 2.06%]0.00955
Owl Lake0.016579.17E-3 (0.92%)[0.86% 0.98%]0.012 (1.18%)[1.11% 1.24%]0.013 (1.33%)[1.26% 1.40%]0.016 (1.55%)[1.48% 1.63%]0.017 (1.65%)[1.57% 1.73%]0.00867
Garlock (East)0.012446.26E-3 (0.63%)[0.58% 0.68%]8.32E-3 (0.83%)[0.78% 0.89%]9.46E-3 (0.95%)[0.89% 1.01%]0.011 (1.10%)[1.04% 1.17%]0.012 (1.19%)[1.12% 1.26%]0.00593
Hunter Mountain-Saline Valley0.010376.03E-3 (0.60%)[0.56% 0.65%]7.37E-3 (0.74%)[0.69% 0.79%]8.28E-3 (0.83%)[0.77% 0.89%]9.53E-3 (0.95%)[0.89% 1.02%]0.010 (1.03%)[0.97% 1.09%]0.00569
Tank Canyon0.008043.80E-3 (0.38%)[0.34% 0.42%]5.22E-3 (0.52%)[0.48% 0.57%]6.13E-3 (0.61%)[0.57% 0.66%]7.30E-3 (0.73%)[0.68% 0.79%]8.01E-3 (0.80%)[0.75% 0.86%]0.00269
Garlock (West)0.006483.80E-3 (0.38%)[0.34% 0.42%]4.76E-3 (0.48%)[0.43% 0.52%]5.41E-3 (0.54%)[0.50% 0.59%]6.12E-3 (0.61%)[0.57% 0.66%]6.47E-3 (0.65%)[0.60% 0.70%]0.00404
So Sierra Nevada0.002981.37E-3 (0.14%)[0.12% 0.16%]1.82E-3 (0.18%)[0.16% 0.21%]2.21E-3 (0.22%)[0.19% 0.25%]2.65E-3 (0.27%)[0.23% 0.30%]2.97E-3 (0.30%)[0.26% 0.33%]7.9E-4

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 107 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
Garlock (Central)0.03730.022 (2.19%)[2.10% 2.28%]0.027 (2.70%)[2.60% 2.81%]0.030 (3.03%)[2.93% 3.14%]0.035 (3.48%)[3.36% 3.59%]0.037 (3.70%)[3.58% 3.82%]0.02302
Panamint Valley0.014548.44E-3 (0.84%)[0.79% 0.90%]0.010 (1.04%)[0.98% 1.11%]0.012 (1.17%)[1.10% 1.23%]0.013 (1.34%)[1.27% 1.42%]0.015 (1.45%)[1.38% 1.53%]0.00816
Owl Lake0.012937.84E-3 (0.78%)[0.73% 0.84%]9.62E-3 (0.96%)[0.90% 1.02%]0.011 (1.08%)[1.01% 1.14%]0.012 (1.23%)[1.16% 1.30%]0.013 (1.29%)[1.22% 1.37%]0.00832
Hunter Mountain-Saline Valley0.010125.96E-3 (0.60%)[0.55% 0.65%]7.28E-3 (0.73%)[0.68% 0.78%]8.16E-3 (0.82%)[0.76% 0.87%]9.38E-3 (0.94%)[0.88% 1.00%]0.010 (1.01%)[0.95% 1.08%]0.00564
Garlock (East)0.009615.26E-3 (0.53%)[0.48% 0.57%]6.80E-3 (0.68%)[0.63% 0.73%]7.69E-3 (0.77%)[0.72% 0.83%]8.89E-3 (0.89%)[0.83% 0.95%]9.55E-3 (0.95%)[0.90% 1.02%]0.0057
Garlock (West)0.006423.77E-3 (0.38%)[0.34% 0.42%]4.73E-3 (0.47%)[0.43% 0.52%]5.37E-3 (0.54%)[0.49% 0.58%]6.07E-3 (0.61%)[0.56% 0.66%]6.42E-3 (0.64%)[0.59% 0.69%]0.00403
Little Lake0.006264.05E-3 (0.40%)[0.37% 0.45%]4.85E-3 (0.48%)[0.44% 0.53%]5.23E-3 (0.52%)[0.48% 0.57%]5.88E-3 (0.59%)[0.54% 0.64%]6.26E-3 (0.63%)[0.58% 0.68%]0.00463
Airport Lake0.005983.88E-3 (0.39%)[0.35% 0.43%]4.66E-3 (0.47%)[0.43% 0.51%]5.00E-3 (0.50%)[0.46% 0.55%]5.64E-3 (0.56%)[0.52% 0.61%]5.98E-3 (0.60%)[0.55% 0.65%]0.00448
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.002661.48E-3 (0.15%)[0.13% 0.17%]1.84E-3 (0.18%)[0.16% 0.21%]2.13E-3 (0.21%)[0.19% 0.24%]2.45E-3 (0.24%)[0.22% 0.28%]2.63E-3 (0.26%)[0.23% 0.30%]0.00148
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.001991.12E-3 (0.11%)[0.09% 0.14%]1.36E-3 (0.14%)[0.11% 0.16%]1.61E-3 (0.16%)[0.14% 0.19%]1.86E-3 (0.19%)[0.16% 0.22%]1.99E-3 (0.20%)[0.17% 0.23%]0.00115

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 61 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
Garlock (Central)0.015058.96E-3 (0.90%)[0.84% 0.96%]0.011 (1.09%)[1.03% 1.16%]0.012 (1.23%)[1.16% 1.30%]0.014 (1.41%)[1.33% 1.48%]0.015 (1.50%)[1.43% 1.58%]0.00908
Panamint Valley0.009955.90E-3 (0.59%)[0.54% 0.64%]7.19E-3 (0.72%)[0.67% 0.77%]8.02E-3 (0.80%)[0.75% 0.86%]9.23E-3 (0.92%)[0.87% 0.98%]9.95E-3 (1.00%)[0.93% 1.06%]0.00562
Hunter Mountain-Saline Valley0.009915.87E-3 (0.59%)[0.54% 0.64%]7.15E-3 (0.71%)[0.66% 0.77%]7.98E-3 (0.80%)[0.74% 0.86%]9.19E-3 (0.92%)[0.86% 0.98%]9.91E-3 (0.99%)[0.93% 1.05%]0.00559
Garlock (West)0.005753.34E-3 (0.33%)[0.30% 0.37%]4.16E-3 (0.42%)[0.38% 0.46%]4.75E-3 (0.47%)[0.43% 0.52%]5.42E-3 (0.54%)[0.50% 0.59%]5.75E-3 (0.57%)[0.53% 0.62%]0.00362
Garlock (East)0.003642.08E-3 (0.21%)[0.18% 0.24%]2.62E-3 (0.26%)[0.23% 0.30%]2.96E-3 (0.30%)[0.26% 0.33%]3.40E-3 (0.34%)[0.31% 0.38%]3.64E-3 (0.36%)[0.33% 0.40%]0.00237
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.002641.46E-3 (0.15%)[0.12% 0.17%]1.82E-3 (0.18%)[0.16% 0.21%]2.11E-3 (0.21%)[0.18% 0.24%]2.43E-3 (0.24%)[0.21% 0.28%]2.61E-3 (0.26%)[0.23% 0.30%]0.00148
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.001911.07E-3 (0.11%)[0.09% 0.13%]1.31E-3 (0.13%)[0.11% 0.16%]1.53E-3 (0.15%)[0.13% 0.18%]1.78E-3 (0.18%)[0.15% 0.21%]1.91E-3 (0.19%)[0.17% 0.22%]0.00109
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.001316.90E-4 (0.07%)[0.05% 0.09%]8.70E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.07E-3 (0.11%)[0.09% 0.13%]1.20E-3 (0.12%)[0.10% 0.14%]1.29E-3 (0.13%)[0.11% 0.15%]6.6E-4
Owl Lake0.001067.00E-4 (0.07%)[0.05% 0.09%]8.30E-4 (0.08%)[0.07% 0.10%]9.10E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.02E-3 (0.10%)[0.08% 0.12%]1.06E-3 (0.11%)[0.09% 0.13%]6.6E-4
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)4.9E-42.60E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]3.10E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]3.90E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.05%]4.50E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]4.90E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]2.2E-4

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 33 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (Mojave N)3.2E-41.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]1.80E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.02% 0.04%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.05%]1.7E-4
San Andreas (Mojave S)3.2E-41.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]1.80E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.02% 0.04%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.05%]1.7E-4
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)3.2E-41.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]1.80E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.02% 0.04%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.05%]1.7E-4
Garlock (Central)2.8E-41.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]1.80E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.30E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]2.60E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]1.6E-4
Garlock (West)2.8E-41.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]1.80E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.30E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]2.60E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]1.6E-4
Garlock (East)2.3E-41.50E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.03%]1.70E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]1.90E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.10E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.30E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]1.4E-4
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)1.4E-46.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]6.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]7.0E-5
San Jacinto (San Bernardino)1.1E-48.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]9.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.10E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]6.0E-5
San Jacinto (San Jacinto Valley) rev1.1E-48.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]9.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.10E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]6.0E-5
San Jacinto (Stepovers Combined)1.1E-48.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]9.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.10E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]6.0E-5

Fault Magnitude-Probability Distributions

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The first 5 sections (sorted by trigger rate) are plotted below. All fault MPDs are available here

1 Week1 Month1 Year10 Year
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥2.5Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 100000,
  "duration": 10.0,
  "startTimeMillis": 1562383194040,
  "includeSpontaneous": false,
  "randomSeed": 1569621567439,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "ComCat M7.1 (ci38457511), ShakeMap Surfaces, Log10(k)\u003d-2.52, p\u003d1.21, c\u003d0.004168694, ModMag6.53",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "/home/scec-02/kmilner/ucerf3/etas_sim/2019_09_27-ComCatM7p1_ci38457511_ShakeMapSurfaces_Log10_k_2p52_p1p21_c0p004168694_ModMag6p53",
  "triggerRuptures": [
    "omitted due to length, see original input file"
  ],
  "cacheDir": "/export/opensha-00/kmilner/ucerf3-etas-launcher/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "/export/opensha-00/kmilner/ucerf3-etas-launcher/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.14,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "etas_p": 1.21,
  "etas_c": 0.004168694,
  "etas_log10_k": -2.52,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_comcat_event_config_builder.sh --event-id ci38457511 --num-simulations 100000 --days-before 7 --mag-complete 3.5 --etas-k -2.52 --etas-p 1.21 --etas-c 0.004168694 --name-add ModMag6.53 --finite-surf-shakemap --finite-surf-shakemap-min-mag 5 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec",
  "configTime": 1569621567439,
  "comcatMetadata": {
    "region": {
      "border": [
        {
          "latitude": 35.15123745324938,
          "longitude": -117.46198765392752
        },
        {
          "latitude": 35.170513097218205,
          "longitude": -117.55046477274733
        },
        {
          "latitude": 35.201997575622634,
          "longitude": -117.63356287896195
        },
        {
          "latitude": 35.24474776584818,
          "longitude": -117.70878534540662
        },
        {
          "latitude": 35.2893890362986,
          "longitude": -117.76387551603122
        },
        {
          "latitude": 35.288830898189985,
          "longitude": -117.76465036296011
        },
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