Start 1919, 500 yr, Log10(k)=-2.31, p=1.08, c=0.04, Scale Factor 1.0, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog Results

Start 1919, 500 yr, Log10(k)=-2.31, p=1.08, c=0.04, Scale Factor 1.0, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog
Num Simulations1000
Start Time1919/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds-1609459200000
Duration500 Years
Includes Spontaneous?true
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Historical Ruptures165 Trigger Ruptures
First: M7.3 at 1852/01/05 04:40:39 UTC
Last: M6.5 at 1918/07/15 00:24:39 UTC
Largest: M7.9 at 1857/01/09 16:25:39 UTC
Config Generated Withu3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 1919 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k -2.31 --etas-p 1.08 --etas-c 0.04 --scale-factor 1.0 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec

Table Of Contents

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution500 yr Probability500 yr Prob 95% Conf500 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥57.2886.7367.9247.2707.2548.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.15.7645.3106.2665.7545.6926.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.24.5594.1804.9644.5544.7045.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.33.5993.2823.9483.5963.6284.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.42.8362.5803.1162.8342.8463.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.52.2312.0222.4642.2282.2642.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.61.7501.5721.9401.7461.7342.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.71.3671.2201.5301.3641.3501.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.81.0630.9381.1981.0621.0441.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.90.8110.7120.9180.8080.8021.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥60.6420.5580.7340.6400.6460.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.10.4940.4240.5720.4940.4840.6601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.20.3900.3280.4560.3880.3960.5291.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.30.3080.2580.3640.3060.3160.4201.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.40.2400.2000.2880.2380.2380.3321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.50.1850.1500.2260.1840.1860.2601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.60.1430.1140.1760.1420.1420.2051.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.70.1100.0840.1400.1100.1020.1601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.80.0860.0660.1080.0860.0800.1271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.90.0670.0480.0860.0660.0700.1001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥70.0520.0340.0680.0520.0520.0781.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.10.0390.0260.0540.0380.0380.0601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.20.0290.0180.0420.0280.0280.0451.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.30.0230.0120.0340.0220.0220.0351.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.40.0170.0100.0280.0180.0180.0271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.50.0126.00E-30.0200.0120.0100.0191.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.69.19E-34.00E-30.0168.00E-38.00E-30.0141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.76.48E-32.00E-30.0126.00E-36.00E-39.58E-30.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.999 (99.90%)
M≥7.84.50E-32.00E-38.00E-34.00E-34.00E-36.19E-30.982 (98.20%)[97.11% 98.90%]0.982 (98.20%)
M≥7.92.44E-30.0006.00E-32.00E-32.00E-33.51E-30.808 (80.80%)[78.19% 83.17%]0.808 (80.80%)
M≥81.32E-30.0004.00E-32.00E-30.0002.03E-30.548 (54.80%)[51.65% 57.91%]0.548 (54.80%)
M≥8.16.08E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-30.281 (28.10%)[25.35% 31.02%]0.281 (28.10%)
M≥8.22.38E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0004.48E-40.118 (11.80%)[9.90% 14.00%]0.118 (11.80%)
M≥8.36.20E-50.0002.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-40.031 (3.10%)[2.15% 4.42%]0.031 (3.10%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)

Long Term Rate Variability

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162 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.2872597.25308667.1913580.57956376.2716056.7037047.86419778.481482
5.15.76397945.74691345.8086420.469730884.9197535.2962966.2345686.7530866
5.24.5585314.5370374.2407410.381839163.86419754.17901234.94444475.339506
5.33.59944033.58641983.7283950.309769753.03703713.29012353.90740754.228395
5.42.83616882.82716062.74074080.25384832.37654332.58641983.0802473.3580246
5.52.23119762.22222232.10493830.207829371.85185182.02469132.43209892.648148
5.61.75004531.74074081.78395060.170305681.43827161.58024691.91975312.0987654
5.71.36705761.35802471.38271610.140890061.10493831.22839511.50617291.654321
5.81.06318521.05555561.05555560.115394590.8456790.95061731.17283951.308642
5.90.8109630.808641970.790123460.094541520.635802450.71604940.901234571.0123457
6.00.642376540.635802450.62962960.078943990.50.56172840.71604940.8148148
6.10.494448570.493827160.493827160.066485580.370370360.425925940.55555560.63580245
6.20.39002470.38888890.376543220.0564259660.290123460.333333340.444444450.5123457
6.30.307987660.308641970.283950630.0480682740.222222220.259259250.35802470.4074074
6.40.24006790.23456790.228395060.0412873440.166666670.197530870.283950630.3271605
6.50.184681070.185185180.172839510.0355415050.123456790.148148150.222222220.25925925
6.60.143292170.141975310.135802460.030627920.0864197540.111111110.172839510.20987654
6.70.109681070.104938270.104938270.0263395870.0617283960.0864197540.135802460.16666667
6.80.085895060.0864197540.080246910.0225464090.0432098770.0617283960.111111110.13580246
6.90.0667098760.067901230.067901230.019958330.0308641980.0493827160.0864197540.11111111
7.00.051794240.0493827160.0493827160.0174936470.0185185190.0370370370.067901230.086419754
7.10.0390843640.0370370370.0370370370.0150254720.0123456790.0246913580.0555555560.074074075
7.20.0292366260.0308641980.0246913580.0128313720.00617283960.0185185190.0432098770.055555556
7.30.0228333320.0246913580.0185185190.0110114290.00617283960.0123456790.0308641980.043209877
7.40.0174958850.0185185190.0185185190.0095370210.00.00617283960.0246913580.037037037
7.50.0123744860.0123456790.0123456790.0079127820.00.00617283960.0185185190.030864198
7.60.0091728390.00617283960.00617283960.00649618120.00.00.0185185190.024691358
7.70.0064506170.00617283960.00617283960.00549083950.00.00.0123456790.018518519
7.80.0044835390.00617283960.00617283960.00446389570.00.00.00617283960.012345679
7.90.00244032920.00.00.00339119950.00.00.00617283960.012345679
8.00.00132098770.00.00.0026159820.00.00.00617283960.0061728396
8.16.090535E-40.00.00.00185488420.00.00.00.0061728396
8.22.4074074E-40.00.00.00119522970.00.00.00.0061728396
8.36.378601E-50.00.06.243413E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

80 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.285267.27.0250.86211415.86256.458.13759.2
5.15.7620545.75.70.697899944.65.0756.43757.3
5.24.5569254.51254.38750.564884543.64.05.11255.7875
5.33.5980753.56253.43750.456936062.81253.154.03754.6
5.42.83503132.82.76250.373029382.22.46253.23.6375
5.52.23038342.21252.10.30358531.71.9252.5252.875
5.61.74936461.73751.650.248332991.31251.51.98752.275
5.71.3665731.351.36250.204093561.01251.16251.56251.8
5.81.06287291.051.0250.166685010.7750.91.2251.4125
5.90.810708340.80.8250.135366980.56250.6750.951.1
6.00.64226460.63750.66250.1139920060.43750.5250.750.8875
6.10.494258340.48750.48750.0963694450.3250.40.58750.7
6.20.389820840.38750.350.08156920.23750.31250.4750.5625
6.30.307839570.30.31250.0704488460.18750.23750.3750.45
6.40.239914580.23750.2250.0601275230.13750.1750.30.3625
6.50.184543740.18750.1750.0518924780.08750.13750.23750.3
6.60.143156250.13750.1250.0444992780.06250.10.18750.2375
6.70.1095520850.11250.10.0384310630.03750.0750.150.1875
6.80.08576250.08750.0750.0331525470.0250.050.11250.15
6.90.06661250.06250.06250.0291145280.01250.03750.10.125
7.00.051720830.050.03750.0254667050.01250.0250.0750.1125
7.10.0390395820.03750.03750.0222516080.00.01250.06250.0875
7.20.029168750.0250.0250.0191008840.00.01250.050.075
7.30.0227645840.0250.01250.0164529350.00.01250.03750.0625
7.40.0174291670.01250.01250.0141920390.00.00.0250.05
7.50.0123250.01250.01250.0117079270.00.00.0250.0375
7.60.0091416670.01250.00.0099419430.00.00.01250.0375
7.70.00641250.00.00.0083470180.00.00.01250.025
7.80.004450.00.00.0068577150.00.00.01250.025
7.90.00242916660.00.00.00514269430.00.00.01250.0125
8.00.0013250.00.00.00386180360.00.00.00.0125
8.16.1041664E-40.00.00.00269421770.00.00.00.0125
8.22.3958333E-40.00.00.00171402480.00.00.00.0
8.36.4583335E-50.00.08.9624466E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

28 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.28330237.0357146.7857141.46464445.1428575.9642868.60714210.892858
5.15.76048335.5714295.2142861.18224954.04.6785716.8214298.678572
5.24.5556894.3928574.1428570.957525973.1071433.67857155.4285716.857143
5.33.5972293.53.21428560.77654522.3928572.8928574.3214295.464286
5.42.83454422.752.6428570.631738661.82142852.253.42857154.321429
5.52.22990752.17857151.96428570.5136331.39285721.752.71428563.4285715
5.61.74900421.71428571.64285720.41933361.03571431.35714282.1428572.7142856
5.71.366291.32142851.28571430.34324330.785714271.03571431.67857152.142857
5.81.06268911.03571431.03571430.281634780.57142860.785714271.32142851.7142857
5.90.810594560.785714270.785714270.229631860.428571430.57142861.03571431.3214285
6.00.642176450.642857130.607142870.193512570.321428570.46428570.82142861.0714285
6.10.494182770.46428570.46428570.163580180.214285720.321428570.642857130.85714287
6.20.3897710.392857130.357142870.139341530.142857150.250.535714270.6785714
6.30.30773950.28571430.28571430.1205871250.107142860.178571430.428571430.5714286
6.40.239838240.214285720.214285720.104021480.0714285750.142857150.357142870.4642857
6.50.184439080.178571430.142857150.089358110.0357142870.107142860.28571430.39285713
6.60.14302730.142857150.107142860.076952020.0357142870.0714285750.214285720.32142857
6.70.1094054650.107142860.107142860.066312710.00.0357142870.178571430.25
6.80.085630250.0714285750.0714285750.0578880870.00.0357142870.142857150.21428572
6.90.066460080.0714285750.0357142870.0505150440.00.00.107142860.17857143
7.00.051617650.0357142870.0357142870.0441171970.00.00.107142860.14285715
7.10.038970590.0357142870.0357142870.03821480.00.00.0714285750.14285715
7.20.0291176480.0357142870.00.0326992720.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.30.022724790.00.00.028488380.00.00.0357142870.10714286
7.40.0174075630.00.00.0247068420.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.50.0123067230.00.00.0206652150.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.60.0091197480.00.00.0176983660.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.70.00639075650.00.00.0148062540.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.80.0044327730.00.00.0122628450.00.00.00.035714287
7.90.0024222690.00.00.00908833650.00.00.00.035714287
8.00.00132352940.00.00.00675795270.00.00.00.035714287
8.16.0504203E-40.00.00.00460910150.00.00.00.0
8.22.3529412E-40.00.00.00288937520.00.00.00.0
8.36.302521E-50.00.00.00149901980.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Variability Duration Dependence

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Duration Dependence Plot

Download CSV Here

Duration (years)MeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
1.07.2875886.05.06.1379331.03.010.020.0
4.07.2875886.56.03.45743563.254.759.516.25
8.07.2868916.756.1252.575554.1255.259.12514.125
12.07.28663836.83333356.16666652.1606074.41666655.59.013.0
16.07.2868916.8756.6251.90302524.755.6258.87512.3125
20.07.2875886.956.41.7194644.855.88.811.7
24.07.285267.06.79166651.58183095.05.8758.66666711.291667
28.07.28330237.0357146.7857141.46464445.1428575.9642868.60714210.892858
32.07.285267.031256.751.37605375.256.031258.5312510.65625
36.07.2808297.08333356.6111111.29789675.30555536.08333358.510.361111
40.07.285267.17.0251.2323775.3756.1258.410.25
44.07.2868027.11363656.5909091.17657395.4318186.1818188.40909110.045455
48.07.285267.1256.72916651.13341095.52083356.22916658.3759.9375
52.07.2808297.13461546.69230751.07729595.53846176.258.3269239.807693
56.07.27499537.1428577.0714291.03569835.5714296.3035718.2678589.714286
60.07.285267.156.81.00072845.66666656.33333358.259.583333
64.07.27499537.1718757.1093750.96903825.68756.343758.2343759.484375
68.07.28330237.19117646.7205880.945276865.73529436.3529418.2058829.3970585
72.07.2681557.16666656.79166650.905088075.7638896.3888898.1388899.319445
76.07.27668437.18421037.00.887255975.78947356.42105258.1447379.263158
80.07.285267.27.0250.86211415.86256.458.13759.2
84.07.2692337.1785717.0952380.83887695.8571436.4523818.0952389.142858
88.07.2718577.1931827.07954550.81694335.85227256.47727258.0795459.022727
92.07.27914577.1956526.89130450.80040815.91304356.58.0760878.967391
96.07.285267.22916657.29166650.77834855.95833356.52083358.0520838.9375
100.07.2875887.236.740.759841565.996.538.068.95
200.07.2703957.2457.4150.5148856.3356.777.7658.345
300.07.23265657.22333347.0166670.395287546.4633336.85333357.628.026667
400.07.2703957.25257.28250.34417446.6256.937.6057.9925
500.07.2875887.277.2540.302622886.7366.997.5827.924

Simulation Stationarity

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Stationarity Plot

Moment Rate Plot

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term Model
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 313 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0434761.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.047238618
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0273981.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.03419009
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0182841.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.016211301
Mendocino0.0164981.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.028919645
Cerro Prieto0.012650.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]0.015186971
Imperial0.0113441.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.014349225
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0105261.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.013392845
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0086420.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.009440966
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev0.0071340.985 (98.50%)[97.48% 99.13%]0.008455746
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0071080.997 (99.70%)[99.05% 99.92%]0.008909097

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 306 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
Cerro Prieto0.0107340.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]0.013091409
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0098381.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.012216282
Mendocino0.0080420.997 (99.70%)[99.05% 99.92%]0.012516479
Imperial0.0077780.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]0.0096799815
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0073820.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]0.009075132
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0073080.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]0.008140643
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0063180.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.0067372364
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0061880.994 (99.40%)[98.63% 99.76%]0.00821497
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0059460.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]0.0067538084
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0052420.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]0.006128417

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 273 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0059880.985 (98.50%)[97.48% 99.13%]0.007612852
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0048940.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]0.005722108
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0048921.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0057427646
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0047340.984 (98.40%)[97.36% 99.05%]0.0062776324
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0044520.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]0.0052993274
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.003990.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]0.0051040766
San Andreas (Coachella) rev0.0038960.971 (97.10%)[95.81% 98.01%]0.004435764
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0038560.955 (95.50%)[93.98% 96.66%]0.004749499
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0037860.992 (99.20%)[98.36% 99.63%]0.0045623486
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0037560.983 (98.30%)[97.23% 98.97%]0.005556243

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 212 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.00390.993 (99.30%)[98.50% 99.69%]0.0049894005
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0036420.989 (98.90%)[97.98% 99.42%]0.0044245115
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0035320.983 (98.30%)[97.23% 98.97%]0.0045267143
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.003440.979 (97.90%)[96.75% 98.66%]0.004201805
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0032740.958 (95.80%)[94.31% 96.92%]0.0040264158
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0030080.954 (95.40%)[93.86% 96.58%]0.0045710644
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0028880.856 (85.60%)[83.23% 87.69%]0.0038110747
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0028220.885 (88.50%)[86.32% 90.38%]0.0037959707
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0025560.847 (84.70%)[82.28% 86.84%]0.0032088608
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM0.0025080.889 (88.90%)[86.75% 90.75%]0.0035515025

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 58 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 500 Year ProbTotal 500 Year 95% ConfLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0011680.499 (49.90%)[46.76% 53.04%]0.0018098651
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0011660.499 (49.90%)[46.76% 53.04%]0.0017508415
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0011520.494 (49.40%)[46.26% 52.55%]0.0017453934
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.001150.493 (49.30%)[46.16% 52.45%]0.0017636013
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0011320.487 (48.70%)[45.56% 51.85%]0.0017193216
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0010920.476 (47.60%)[44.47% 50.75%]0.0016807786
San Andreas (Parkfield)9.84E-40.434 (43.40%)[40.31% 46.54%]0.0015122787
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM9.36E-40.413 (41.30%)[38.24% 44.43%]0.0014250289
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM6.58E-40.301 (30.10%)[27.29% 33.07%]0.0010319632
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM5.88E-40.275 (27.50%)[24.77% 30.40%]9.2652056E-4

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term Model
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 1000,
  "duration": 500.0,
  "startYear": 1919,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 1567206915843,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Start 1919, 500 yr, Log10(k)\u003d-2.31, p\u003d1.08, c\u003d0.04, Scale Factor 1.0, Spontaneous, Historical Catalog",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2019_08_30-Start1919_500yr_Log10_k_2p31_p1p08_c0p04_ScaleFactor1p0_Spontaneous_HistoricalCatalog",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": true,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.0,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "etas_p": 1.08,
  "etas_c": 0.04,
  "etas_log10_k": -2.31,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 1919 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 500 --include-spontaneous --historical-catalog --etas-k -2.31 --etas-p 1.08 --etas-c 0.04 --scale-factor 1.0 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec",
  "configTime": 1567206915843
}