ComCat M7.1 (ci38457511), Mainshock Log10(k)=-2.3, ShakeMap Surfaces, Log10(k)=-3.03, p=1.15, c=0.002 Results

Table Of Contents

• Probabilities Summary Table
• Magnitude Number Distribution
  • 10 Year Magnitude Number Distribution
  • 1 Year Magnitude Number Distribution
  • 1 Month Magnitude Number Distribution
  • 1 Week Magnitude Number Distribution
  • 1 Day Magnitude Number Distribution
  • 1 Hour Magnitude Number Distribution
• Hazard Change Over Time
  • M≥5.0 Hazard Change Over Time
  • M≥6.0 Hazard Change Over Time
  • M≥7.0 Hazard Change Over Time
  • M≥8.0 Hazard Change Over Time
• Trigger Rupture Fault Map
• Trigger Rupture Depth Map
• Fault Distances To Triggers
• Individual Simulated Catalog Maps
• ComCat Data Comparisons
  • ComCat Magnitude-Number Distributions
  • ComCat Magnitude-Time Functions
  • ComCat Time-Dependent Mc
  • ComCat Cumulative Number Vs Time
  • ComCat Cumulative Number Simulation Percentiles
  • ComCat Probability Spatial Distribution
  • ComCat Mean Expectation Spatial Distribution
  • ComCat Depth Distribution
• Section Participation
  • Section Participation Plots
  • Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table
  • M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table
  • M≥7 Parent Sections Table
  • M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table
  • M≥8 Parent Sections Table
• Fault Magnitude-Probability Distributions
• Gridded Nucleation
• JSON Input File

Probabilities Summary Table

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Magnitude Number Distribution

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10 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

• Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 100000 catalogs
• Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• 10 yr Probability (thin red line): 10 year probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
• 10 yr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
• 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
• Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 100000 catalogs

1 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

• Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 100000 catalogs
• Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• 1 yr Probability (thin red line): 1 year probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
• 1 yr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
• 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
• Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 100000 catalogs

1 Month Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

• Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 100000 catalogs
• Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• 1 mo Probability (thin red line): 1 month probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
• 1 mo Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
• 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
• Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 100000 catalogs

1 Week Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

• Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 100000 catalogs
• Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• 1 wk Probability (thin red line): 1 week probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
• 1 wk Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
• 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
• Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 100000 catalogs

1 Day Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

• Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 100000 catalogs
• Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• 1 d Probability (thin red line): 1 day probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
• 1 d Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
• 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
• Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 100000 catalogs

1 Hour Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

• Mean (thick black line): mean expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): expected number percentiles across all 100000 catalogs
• Median (thin blue line): median expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• Mode (thin cyan line): modal expected number across all 100000 catalogs
• 1 hr Probability (thin red line): 1 hour probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
• 1 hr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
• 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability
• Primary (thin green line): mean expected number from primary triggered aftershocks only (no secondary, tertiary, etc...) across all 100000 catalogs

Hazard Change Over Time

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These plots show how the probability of ruptures of various magnitudes within the region used to fetch ComCat trigger ruptures changes over time

M≥5.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥6.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥7.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥8.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

Trigger Rupture Fault Map

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Trigger Rupture Depth Map

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Fault Distances To Triggers

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Individual Simulated Catalog Maps

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These are map plots of individual catalogs from the simulations, selected as the closest catalog to each of the given percentiles in terms of total number of events.

Duration	p0.0 %-ile	p25.0 %-ile	p50.0 %-ile	p75.0 %-ile	p90.0 %-ile	p95.0 %-ile	p97.5 %-ile	p98.0 %-ile	p99.0 %-ile	p99.5 %-ile	p99.9 %-ile	p100.0 %-ile
1 Week
1 Month
1 Year
10 Year

ComCat Data Comparisons

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These plots compare simulated sequences with data from ComCat. All plots only consider events with hypocenters inside the ComCat region defined in the JSON input file.

Last updated at 2021/10/16 09:52:36 UTC, 2.3 years after the simulation start time.

Total matching ComCat events found: 2621

ComCat Magnitude-Number Distributions

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Incremental MND	Cumulative MND

ComCat Magnitude-Time Functions

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These plots show the show the magnitude versus time probability function since simulation start. Observed event data lie on top, with those input to the simulation plotted as magenta circles and those that occurred after the simulation start time as cyan circles. Time is relative to the mainshock (M7.1, ci38457511, plotted as a brown circle). Probabilities are only shown above the minimum simulated magnitude, M=2.5.

ComCat Time-Dependent Mc

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The following plots compare simulation results with ComCat data above a magnitude threshold. Plots labeled as M≥Mc(t) use the time-dependent magnitude of completeness (Mc) defined in Helmstetter et al. (2006), which is plotted below. In the case of multiple M≥5 ruptures, either as input to the simulation or in the comparison data, the maximum calculated time-dependent Mc is used. This time-dependent Mc function is plotted below.

ComCat Cumulative Number Vs Time

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M≥Mc(t)	M≥3.5	M≥4	M≥5	M≥6	M≥7

ComCat Cumulative Number Simulation Percentiles

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ComCat Probability Spatial Distribution

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	1 Day	1 Week	1 Month	1 Year	Current (2.3 Year)
M≥Mc(t)
	Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 332	Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 846	Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 1228	Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 1644	Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 1757
M≥3.5
	Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 244	Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 304	Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 332	Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 375	Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 384
M≥4
	Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 65	Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 77	Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 83	Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 90	Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 91
M≥5
	Prob: 99.85%, Actual: 2	Prob: 99.96%, Actual: 2	Prob: 99.98%, Actual: 2	Prob: 99.99%, Actual: 3	Prob: 99.99%, Actual: 3
M≥6
	Prob: 39.93%, Actual: 0	Prob: 45.47%, Actual: 0	Prob: 48.54%, Actual: 0	Prob: 52.40%, Actual: 0	Prob: 53.32%, Actual: 0
M≥7
	Prob: 3.84%, Actual: 0	Prob: 4.52%, Actual: 0	Prob: 4.98%, Actual: 0	Prob: 5.50%, Actual: 0	Prob: 5.67%, Actual: 0
M≥8
	Prob: 0.02%, Actual: 0	Prob: 0.03%, Actual: 0	Prob: 0.03%, Actual: 0	Prob: 0.03%, Actual: 0	Prob: 0.04%, Actual: 0

ComCat Mean Expectation Spatial Distribution

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	1 Day	1 Week	1 Month	1 Year	Current (2.3 Year)
M≥Mc(t)
	Mean: 298.033, Actual: 332	Mean: 719.120, Actual: 846	Mean: 977.935, Actual: 1228	Mean: 1318.387, Actual: 1644	Mean: 1407.184, Actual: 1757
M≥3.5
	Mean: 223.458, Actual: 244	Mean: 266.309, Actual: 304	Mean: 292.179, Actual: 332	Mean: 326.189, Actual: 375	Mean: 335.054, Actual: 384
M≥4
	Mean: 70.532, Actual: 65	Mean: 84.056, Actual: 77	Mean: 92.222, Actual: 83	Mean: 102.948, Actual: 90	Mean: 105.747, Actual: 91
M≥5
	Mean: 6.844, Actual: 2	Mean: 8.159, Actual: 2	Mean: 8.951, Actual: 2	Mean: 9.990, Actual: 3	Mean: 10.262, Actual: 3
M≥6
	Mean: 0.517, Actual: 0	Mean: 0.616, Actual: 0	Mean: 0.677, Actual: 0	Mean: 0.756, Actual: 0	Mean: 0.776, Actual: 0
M≥7
	Mean: 0.039, Actual: 0	Mean: 0.046, Actual: 0	Mean: 0.050, Actual: 0	Mean: 0.056, Actual: 0	Mean: 0.058, Actual: 0
M≥8
	Mean: 2.20E-4, Actual: 0	Mean: 3.00E-4, Actual: 0	Mean: 3.30E-4, Actual: 0	Mean: 3.40E-4, Actual: 0	Mean: 3.50E-4, Actual: 0

ComCat Depth Distribution

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M≥Mc(t)	M≥3.5	M≥4	M≥5	M≥6	M≥7	M≥8

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min Mag	1 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)	10 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)	10 yr Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.
M≥6.5
M≥7
M≥7.5
M≥8

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 163 with matching ruptures shown

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 125 with matching ruptures shown

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 84 with matching ruptures shown

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 62 with matching ruptures shown

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 28 with matching ruptures shown

Fault Magnitude-Probability Distributions

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The first 5 sections (sorted by trigger rate) are plotted below. All fault MPDs are available here

1 Week	1 Month	1 Year	10 Year

Gridded Nucleation

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Min Mag	Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)	Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥2.5
M≥5
M≥6
M≥7

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 100000,
  "duration": 10.0,
  "startTimeMillis": 1562383194040,
  "includeSpontaneous": false,
  "randomSeed": 1567206851379,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "ComCat M7.1 (ci38457511), Mainshock Log10(k)\u003d-2.3, ShakeMap Surfaces, Log10(k)\u003d-3.03, p\u003d1.15, c\u003d0.002",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "/home/scec-02/kmilner/ucerf3/etas_sim/2019_08_30-ComCatM7p1_ci38457511_MainshockLog10_k_2p3_ShakeMapSurfaces_Log10_k_3p03_p1p15_c0p002",
  "triggerRuptures": [
    "omitted due to length, see original input file"
  ],
  "cacheDir": "/export/opensha-00/kmilner/ucerf3-etas-launcher/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "/export/opensha-00/kmilner/ucerf3-etas-launcher/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.14,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "etas_p": 1.15,
  "etas_c": 0.002,
  "etas_log10_k": -3.03,
  "configCommand": "u3etas_comcat_event_config_builder.sh --event-id ci38457511 --num-simulations 100000 --days-before 7 --mag-complete 3.5 --etas-k -3.03 --etas-p 1.15 --etas-c 0.002 --mainshock-etas-k -2.3 --finite-surf-shakemap --finite-surf-shakemap-min-mag 5 --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec",
  "configTime": 1567206851379,
  "comcatMetadata": {
    "region": {
      "border": [
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    "eventID": "ci38457511",
    "minDepth": -10.0,
    "maxDepth": 24.0,
    "minMag": 2.5,
    "startTime": 1561778393040,
    "endTime": 1562383193041,
    "magComplete": 3.5
  }
}