Start 1919, 100 yr, Spontaneous Results

Table Of Contents

• Magnitude Frequency Distribution
• Long Term Rate Variability
  • 80 Year Variability
  • 28 Year Variability
  • Variability Duration Dependence
• Simulation Stationarity
• Section Participation
  • Section Participation Plots
  • Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table
  • M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table
  • M≥7 Parent Sections Table
  • M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table
  • M≥8 Parent Sections Table
• Gridded Nucleation
• JSON Input File

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Legend

• Mean (thick black line): mean annual rate across all 1000 catalogs
• 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): annual rate percentiles across all 1000 catalogs
• Median (thin blue line): median annual rate across all 1000 catalogs
• Mode (thin cyan line): modal annual rate across all 1000 catalogs (scaled to annualized value)
• Fault System Solution (brown line): long-term MFD from the UCERF3 fault system solution
• 100 yr Probability (thin red line): 100 year probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
• 100 yr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
• 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability

Long Term Rate Variability

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80 Year Variability

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Download CSV Here

28 Year Variability

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Download CSV Here

Variability Duration Dependence

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Download CSV Here

Simulation Stationarity

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Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min Mag	Complete Catalog (including spontaneous)	Ratio WRT Long-Term Model
All Supra. Seis.
M≥6.5
M≥7
M≥7.5
M≥8

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 312 with matching ruptures shown

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 302 with matching ruptures shown

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 260 with matching ruptures shown

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 195 with matching ruptures shown

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 41 with matching ruptures shown

Gridded Nucleation

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Min Mag	Complete Catalog (including spontaneous)	Ratio WRT Long-Term Model
M≥5
M≥6
M≥7

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 1000,
  "duration": 100.0,
  "startYear": 1919,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 1566932699314,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "Start 1919, 100 yr, Spontaneous",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2019_08_27-Start1919_100yr_Spontaneous",
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.14,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED",
  "configCommand": "u3etas_config_builder.sh --start-year 1919 --num-simulations 1000 --duration-years 100 --include-spontaneous --hpc-site USC_HPC --nodes 36 --hours 24 --queue scec",
  "configTime": 1566932699314
}