ComCat M7.1 (ci38457511), 7 Days After, Finite Surface Results

ComCat M7.1 (ci38457511), 7 Days After, Finite Surface
Num Simulations100000
Start Time2019/07/13 03:19:54 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1562987994040
Duration10 Years
Includes Spontaneous?false
Trigger Ruptures1382 Trigger Ruptures
First: M3.98 at 2019/07/04 17:02:55 UTC
Last: M2.8 at 2019/07/13 02:47:44 UTC
Largest: M7.1 at 2019/07/06 03:19:53 UTC
Trigger Ruptures(none)

Table Of Contents

Probabilities Summary Table

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Magnitude1 Hour Prob1 Day Prob1 Week Prob1 Month Prob1 Year Prob10 Year Prob
M≥40.047 (4.73%)0.678 (67.75%)0.997 (99.67%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf[4.60% 4.87%][67.46% 68.04%][99.63% 99.71%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%]
M≥4.50.016 (1.56%)0.306 (30.65%)0.850 (84.95%)0.988 (98.81%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf[1.48% 1.64%][30.36% 30.94%][84.73% 85.17%][98.74% 98.88%][99.99% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%]
M≥54.92E-3 (0.49%)0.110 (10.98%)0.457 (45.65%)0.765 (76.49%)0.967 (96.65%)0.995 (99.49%)
95% Conf[0.45% 0.54%][10.79% 11.18%][45.34% 45.96%][76.22% 76.75%][96.54% 96.76%][99.45% 99.53%]
M≥5.51.52E-3 (0.15%)0.036 (3.60%)0.175 (17.52%)0.372 (37.20%)0.669 (66.94%)0.823 (82.34%)
95% Conf[0.13% 0.18%][3.49% 3.72%][17.29% 17.76%][36.91% 37.51%][66.65% 67.23%][82.10% 82.57%]
M≥63.70E-4 (0.04%)0.011 (1.07%)0.054 (5.36%)0.126 (12.56%)0.279 (27.89%)0.407 (40.73%)
95% Conf[0.03% 0.05%][1.01% 1.14%][5.23% 5.51%][12.36% 12.77%][27.62% 28.17%][40.42% 41.03%]
M≥6.58.00E-5 (0.01%)2.28E-3 (0.23%)0.013 (1.27%)0.031 (3.08%)0.074 (7.38%)0.117 (11.66%)
95% Conf[0.00% 0.02%][0.20% 0.26%][1.20% 1.34%][2.98% 3.19%][7.22% 7.55%][11.46% 11.86%]
M≥72.00E-5 (0.00%)8.10E-4 (0.08%)4.71E-3 (0.47%)0.011 (1.15%)0.028 (2.79%)0.044 (4.44%)
95% Conf[0.00% 0.01%][0.06% 0.10%][0.43% 0.52%][1.08% 1.21%][2.68% 2.89%][4.31% 4.57%]
M≥7.11.00E-5 (0.00%)7.50E-4 (0.08%)4.09E-3 (0.41%)9.73E-3 (0.97%)0.024 (2.40%)0.038 (3.82%)
95% Conf[0.00% 0.01%][0.06% 0.09%][0.37% 0.45%][0.91% 1.04%][2.30% 2.49%][3.70% 3.94%]
M≥7.50.000 (0.00%)3.10E-4 (0.03%)1.51E-3 (0.15%)3.42E-3 (0.34%)8.70E-3 (0.87%)0.015 (1.45%)
95% Conf[0.00% 0.00%][0.02% 0.04%][0.13% 0.18%][0.31% 0.38%][0.81% 0.93%][1.38% 1.53%]
M≥80.000 (0.00%)0.000 (0.00%)1.00E-5 (0.00%)4.00E-5 (0.00%)1.20E-4 (0.01%)2.50E-4 (0.03%)
95% Conf[0.00% 0.00%][0.00% 0.00%][0.00% 0.01%][0.00% 0.01%][0.01% 0.02%][0.02% 0.04%]

Magnitude Number Distribution

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10 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode10 yr Probability10 yr Prob 95% Conf10 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.52783.9701716.0008659.0002204.0002027.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.189 (18.92%)1194.236
M≥2.62211.3091359.0006873.0001751.0001548.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.189 (18.92%)948.561
M≥2.71756.5461075.0005473.0001392.0001257.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.189 (18.92%)753.479
M≥2.81395.151850.0004344.0001106.000969.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.189 (18.92%)598.486
M≥2.91108.113672.0003451.000879.000795.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.189 (18.92%)475.334
M≥3880.208530.0002741.000698.000633.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.189 (18.92%)377.582
M≥3.1699.243418.0002179.000556.000499.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.189 (18.92%)299.944
M≥3.2555.425329.0001733.000441.000394.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.189 (18.92%)238.278
M≥3.3441.116259.0001378.000351.000320.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.189 (18.92%)189.237
M≥3.4350.333203.0001093.000279.000254.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.189 (18.92%)150.330
M≥3.5278.217158.000869.000222.000200.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.189 (18.92%)119.381
M≥3.6220.985123.000693.000177.000159.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.189 (18.92%)94.811
M≥3.7175.52196.000549.000141.000127.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.189 (18.92%)75.306
M≥3.8139.37574.000439.000112.000104.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.189 (18.92%)59.792
M≥3.9110.64657.000347.00089.00082.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.189 (18.92%)47.470
M≥487.85244.000276.00071.00066.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.189 (18.92%)37.695
M≥4.169.72733.000219.00056.00050.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.189 (18.92%)29.923
M≥4.255.33625.000176.00045.00039.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.189 (18.92%)23.744
M≥4.343.90319.000140.00035.00032.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.189 (18.92%)18.828
M≥4.434.83314.000112.00028.00026.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.189 (18.92%)14.944
M≥4.527.62310.00090.00022.00018.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.189 (18.92%)11.853
M≥4.621.9007.00072.00018.00015.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.99% 100.00%]0.189 (18.92%)9.397
M≥4.717.3565.00057.00014.00012.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.189 (18.92%)7.445
M≥4.813.7344.00046.00011.0009.0001.000 (99.97%)[99.95% 99.98%]0.189 (18.92%)5.891
M≥4.910.8572.00037.0009.0007.0000.998 (99.84%)[99.82% 99.87%]0.189 (18.92%)4.657
M≥58.5731.00029.0007.0006.0000.995 (99.49%)[99.45% 99.53%]0.189 (18.92%)3.676
M≥5.16.7631.00024.0005.0004.0000.985 (98.54%)[98.46% 98.61%]0.189 (18.92%)2.898
M≥5.25.3290.00019.0004.0003.0000.966 (96.60%)[96.48% 96.71%]0.189 (18.92%)2.286
M≥5.34.1920.00015.0003.0002.0000.934 (93.44%)[93.29% 93.60%]0.189 (18.92%)1.798
M≥5.43.2850.00013.0002.0002.0000.886 (88.60%)[88.40% 88.79%]0.189 (18.92%)1.409
M≥5.52.5640.00010.0002.0001.0000.823 (82.34%)[82.10% 82.57%]0.189 (18.92%)1.103
M≥5.61.9930.0008.0001.0001.0000.748 (74.80%)[74.53% 75.07%]0.189 (18.92%)0.859
M≥5.71.5320.0007.0001.0000.0000.663 (66.30%)[66.00% 66.59%]0.189 (18.92%)0.662
M≥5.81.1700.0005.0001.0000.0000.573 (57.26%)[56.95% 57.57%]0.189 (18.92%)0.506
M≥5.90.8890.0004.0000.0000.0000.486 (48.58%)[48.27% 48.89%]0.189 (18.91%)0.385
M≥60.6890.0004.0000.0000.0000.407 (40.73%)[40.42% 41.03%]0.189 (18.90%)0.297
M≥6.10.5040.0003.0000.0000.0000.326 (32.57%)[32.28% 32.86%]0.162 (16.18%)0.221
M≥6.20.3350.0002.0000.0000.0000.237 (23.74%)[23.47% 24.00%]0.127 (12.74%)0.148
M≥6.30.2520.0002.0000.0000.0000.187 (18.72%)[18.48% 18.97%]0.107 (10.74%)0.112
M≥6.40.1930.0002.0000.0000.0000.146 (14.64%)[14.43% 14.86%]0.092 (9.22%)0.084
M≥6.50.1490.0001.0000.0000.0000.117 (11.66%)[11.46% 11.86%]0.079 (7.89%)0.065
M≥6.60.1190.0001.0000.0000.0000.099 (9.86%)[9.68% 10.05%]0.071 (7.13%)0.055
M≥6.70.0960.0001.0000.0000.0000.081 (8.14%)[7.97% 8.31%]0.062 (6.20%)0.045
M≥6.80.0780.0001.0000.0000.0000.069 (6.86%)[6.70% 7.01%]0.055 (5.52%)0.038
M≥6.90.0600.0001.0000.0000.0000.055 (5.49%)[5.35% 5.63%]0.046 (4.60%)0.030
M≥70.0470.0001.0000.0000.0000.044 (4.44%)[4.31% 4.57%]0.039 (3.88%)0.024
M≥7.10.0400.0001.0000.0000.0000.038 (3.82%)[3.70% 3.94%]0.035 (3.47%)0.020
M≥7.20.0310.0001.0000.0000.0000.030 (2.96%)[2.86% 3.07%]0.028 (2.77%)0.016
M≥7.30.0210.0000.0000.0000.0000.021 (2.09%)[2.01% 2.19%]0.020 (1.99%)0.011
M≥7.40.0190.0000.0000.0000.0000.018 (1.84%)[1.76% 1.93%]0.018 (1.80%)9.64E-3
M≥7.50.0150.0000.0000.0000.0000.015 (1.45%)[1.38% 1.53%]0.014 (1.44%)7.51E-3
M≥7.67.55E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.45E-3 (0.74%)[0.69% 0.80%]7.39E-3 (0.74%)3.99E-3
M≥7.72.46E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.43E-3 (0.24%)[0.21% 0.28%]2.41E-3 (0.24%)1.24E-3
M≥7.81.42E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.41E-3 (0.14%)[0.12% 0.17%]1.39E-3 (0.14%)6.90E-4
M≥7.98.50E-40.0000.0000.0000.0008.50E-4 (0.08%)[0.07% 0.11%]8.50E-4 (0.08%)4.20E-4
M≥82.50E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.50E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]2.50E-4 (0.03%)1.40E-4
M≥8.14.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)2.00E-5
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 yr Probability1 yr Prob 95% Conf1 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.51641.5481072.0004508.0001335.0001222.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.120 (12.03%)818.922
M≥2.61303.910847.0003581.0001061.0001004.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.120 (12.03%)650.455
M≥2.71035.766669.0002841.000843.000754.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.120 (12.03%)516.680
M≥2.8822.658528.0002258.000670.000595.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.120 (12.03%)410.407
M≥2.9653.381416.0001794.000533.000490.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.120 (12.03%)325.948
M≥3518.951327.0001423.000424.000386.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.120 (12.03%)258.907
M≥3.1412.248257.0001131.000337.000305.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.120 (12.03%)205.662
M≥3.2327.452201.000899.000268.000251.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.120 (12.03%)163.377
M≥3.3260.044158.000715.000213.000200.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.120 (12.03%)129.742
M≥3.4206.517123.000569.000170.000151.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.120 (12.03%)103.047
M≥3.5163.99295.000451.000135.000126.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.120 (12.03%)81.835
M≥3.6130.25974.000358.000107.000102.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.120 (12.03%)64.992
M≥3.7103.44157.000284.00085.00081.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.120 (12.03%)51.615
M≥3.882.13144.000227.00068.00061.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.120 (12.03%)40.978
M≥3.965.18933.000180.00054.00049.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.120 (12.03%)32.525
M≥451.77325.000143.00043.00039.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.120 (12.03%)25.832
M≥4.141.10219.000114.00034.00030.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.120 (12.03%)20.515
M≥4.232.61414.00091.00027.00024.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.120 (12.03%)16.278
M≥4.325.87710.00073.00021.00019.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.120 (12.03%)12.908
M≥4.420.5387.00058.00017.00015.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.120 (12.03%)10.246
M≥4.516.2935.00047.00013.00012.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.99% 100.00%]0.120 (12.03%)8.129
M≥4.612.9174.00037.00011.0009.0001.000 (99.97%)[99.95% 99.98%]0.120 (12.03%)6.440
M≥4.710.2382.00030.0008.0007.0000.999 (99.85%)[99.82% 99.87%]0.120 (12.03%)5.101
M≥4.88.0991.00024.0007.0005.0000.995 (99.50%)[99.45% 99.54%]0.120 (12.03%)4.037
M≥4.96.3991.00020.0005.0004.0000.986 (98.55%)[98.48% 98.63%]0.120 (12.03%)3.189
M≥55.0550.00016.0004.0003.0000.967 (96.65%)[96.54% 96.76%]0.120 (12.03%)2.517
M≥5.13.9880.00013.0003.0002.0000.933 (93.34%)[93.19% 93.50%]0.120 (12.03%)1.984
M≥5.23.1410.00011.0002.0002.0000.886 (88.64%)[88.44% 88.84%]0.120 (12.03%)1.564
M≥5.32.4710.0009.0002.0001.0000.825 (82.48%)[82.24% 82.72%]0.120 (12.03%)1.230
M≥5.41.9370.0008.0001.0001.0000.751 (75.09%)[74.82% 75.36%]0.120 (12.03%)0.964
M≥5.51.5140.0006.0001.0000.0000.669 (66.94%)[66.65% 67.23%]0.120 (12.03%)0.755
M≥5.61.1770.0005.0001.0000.0000.584 (58.38%)[58.07% 58.68%]0.120 (12.03%)0.588
M≥5.70.9040.0004.0000.0000.0000.497 (49.65%)[49.34% 49.96%]0.120 (12.03%)0.453
M≥5.80.6920.0004.0000.0000.0000.415 (41.53%)[41.22% 41.83%]0.120 (12.03%)0.347
M≥5.90.5260.0003.0000.0000.0000.341 (34.14%)[33.85% 34.44%]0.120 (12.03%)0.264
M≥60.4080.0003.0000.0000.0000.279 (27.89%)[27.62% 28.17%]0.120 (12.02%)0.203
M≥6.10.2990.0002.0000.0000.0000.218 (21.77%)[21.52% 22.03%]0.103 (10.28%)0.152
M≥6.20.1990.0002.0000.0000.0000.155 (15.46%)[15.24% 15.69%]0.080 (8.03%)0.101
M≥6.30.1490.0001.0000.0000.0000.121 (12.05%)[11.85% 12.26%]0.068 (6.77%)0.077
M≥6.40.1140.0001.0000.0000.0000.093 (9.32%)[9.14% 9.50%]0.058 (5.80%)0.058
M≥6.50.0880.0001.0000.0000.0000.074 (7.38%)[7.22% 7.55%]0.050 (4.95%)0.045
M≥6.60.0710.0001.0000.0000.0000.062 (6.20%)[6.05% 6.35%]0.045 (4.49%)0.038
M≥6.70.0570.0001.0000.0000.0000.051 (5.09%)[4.95% 5.23%]0.039 (3.91%)0.031
M≥6.80.0470.0001.0000.0000.0000.043 (4.28%)[4.16% 4.41%]0.035 (3.48%)0.026
M≥6.90.0370.0001.0000.0000.0000.034 (3.43%)[3.32% 3.55%]0.029 (2.90%)0.021
M≥70.0290.0001.0000.0000.0000.028 (2.79%)[2.68% 2.89%]0.024 (2.45%)0.017
M≥7.10.0250.0000.0000.0000.0000.024 (2.40%)[2.30% 2.49%]0.022 (2.19%)0.014
M≥7.20.0190.0000.0000.0000.0000.018 (1.84%)[1.75% 1.92%]0.017 (1.73%)0.011
M≥7.30.0130.0000.0000.0000.0000.013 (1.28%)[1.21% 1.35%]0.012 (1.23%)7.57E-3
M≥7.40.0110.0000.0000.0000.0000.011 (1.11%)[1.05% 1.18%]0.011 (1.09%)6.76E-3
M≥7.58.80E-30.0000.0000.0000.0008.70E-3 (0.87%)[0.81% 0.93%]8.61E-3 (0.86%)5.28E-3
M≥7.64.66E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.64E-3 (0.46%)[0.42% 0.51%]4.60E-3 (0.46%)2.81E-3
M≥7.71.48E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.46E-3 (0.15%)[0.12% 0.17%]1.44E-3 (0.14%)8.70E-4
M≥7.88.30E-40.0000.0000.0000.0008.20E-4 (0.08%)[0.07% 0.10%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)4.70E-4
M≥7.94.70E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.70E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.06%]4.70E-4 (0.05%)2.60E-4
M≥81.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)6.00E-5
M≥8.14.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)2.00E-5
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Month Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 mo Probability1 mo Prob 95% Conf1 mo Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5627.992428.0001318.000525.000488.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.050 (4.96%)373.663
M≥2.6498.811337.0001048.000417.000389.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.050 (4.96%)296.795
M≥2.7396.231264.000834.000332.000316.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.050 (4.96%)235.780
M≥2.8314.717207.000663.000264.000246.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.050 (4.96%)187.288
M≥2.9249.926162.000529.000210.000197.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.050 (4.96%)148.733
M≥3198.496126.000421.000167.000161.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.050 (4.96%)118.143
M≥3.1157.65298.000334.000133.000126.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.050 (4.96%)93.838
M≥3.2125.21176.000266.000106.00098.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.050 (4.96%)74.536
M≥3.399.44258.000213.00084.00077.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.050 (4.96%)59.202
M≥3.478.97445.000170.00067.00064.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.050 (4.96%)47.020
M≥3.562.71434.000136.00053.00048.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.050 (4.96%)37.340
M≥3.649.81126.000109.00042.00039.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.050 (4.96%)29.653
M≥3.739.55019.00087.00034.00031.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.050 (4.96%)23.545
M≥3.831.39615.00070.00027.00024.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.050 (4.96%)18.693
M≥3.924.92411.00056.00021.00020.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.050 (4.96%)14.839
M≥419.7968.00045.00017.00015.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.050 (4.96%)11.785
M≥4.115.7105.00037.00013.00012.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.99% 100.00%]0.050 (4.96%)9.352
M≥4.212.4624.00030.00010.0009.0001.000 (99.98%)[99.97% 99.99%]0.050 (4.96%)7.420
M≥4.39.8913.00024.0008.0007.0000.999 (99.90%)[99.88% 99.92%]0.050 (4.96%)5.886
M≥4.47.8492.00020.0007.0006.0000.996 (99.59%)[99.55% 99.63%]0.050 (4.96%)4.674
M≥4.56.2281.00017.0005.0004.0000.988 (98.81%)[98.74% 98.88%]0.050 (4.96%)3.708
M≥4.64.9380.00014.0004.0003.0000.971 (97.06%)[96.95% 97.16%]0.050 (4.96%)2.937
M≥4.73.9150.00011.0003.0002.0000.942 (94.16%)[94.01% 94.30%]0.050 (4.96%)2.328
M≥4.83.0950.0009.0002.0002.0000.898 (89.79%)[89.60% 89.98%]0.050 (4.96%)1.841
M≥4.92.4420.0008.0002.0001.0000.839 (83.88%)[83.65% 84.11%]0.050 (4.96%)1.455
M≥51.9290.0007.0001.0001.0000.765 (76.49%)[76.22% 76.75%]0.050 (4.96%)1.148
M≥5.11.5220.0006.0001.0000.0000.685 (68.45%)[68.17% 68.74%]0.050 (4.96%)0.906
M≥5.21.2000.0005.0001.0000.0000.603 (60.27%)[59.96% 60.57%]0.050 (4.96%)0.714
M≥5.30.9460.0004.0001.0000.0000.522 (52.21%)[51.90% 52.52%]0.050 (4.96%)0.563
M≥5.40.7410.0004.0000.0000.0000.444 (44.40%)[44.09% 44.70%]0.050 (4.96%)0.441
M≥5.50.5790.0003.0000.0000.0000.372 (37.20%)[36.91% 37.51%]0.050 (4.96%)0.346
M≥5.60.4500.0003.0000.0000.0000.306 (30.61%)[30.33% 30.90%]0.050 (4.96%)0.269
M≥5.70.3460.0002.0000.0000.0000.248 (24.83%)[24.56% 25.10%]0.050 (4.96%)0.208
M≥5.80.2650.0002.0000.0000.0000.199 (19.92%)[19.67% 20.17%]0.050 (4.96%)0.160
M≥5.90.2020.0002.0000.0000.0000.158 (15.81%)[15.58% 16.04%]0.050 (4.96%)0.122
M≥60.1560.0001.0000.0000.0000.126 (12.56%)[12.36% 12.77%]0.050 (4.96%)0.094
M≥6.10.1150.0001.0000.0000.0000.096 (9.60%)[9.42% 9.78%]0.043 (4.26%)0.070
M≥6.20.0770.0001.0000.0000.0000.067 (6.66%)[6.50% 6.81%]0.033 (3.30%)0.047
M≥6.30.0580.0001.0000.0000.0000.051 (5.11%)[4.97% 5.25%]0.028 (2.77%)0.036
M≥6.40.0440.0001.0000.0000.0000.039 (3.89%)[3.77% 4.01%]0.024 (2.38%)0.027
M≥6.50.0350.0001.0000.0000.0000.031 (3.08%)[2.98% 3.19%]0.020 (2.03%)0.021
M≥6.60.0280.0001.0000.0000.0000.026 (2.57%)[2.48% 2.68%]0.018 (1.85%)0.018
M≥6.70.0230.0000.0000.0000.0000.021 (2.11%)[2.02% 2.20%]0.016 (1.62%)0.014
M≥6.80.0190.0000.0000.0000.0000.018 (1.78%)[1.70% 1.87%]0.015 (1.46%)0.012
M≥6.90.0150.0000.0000.0000.0000.014 (1.41%)[1.34% 1.49%]0.012 (1.20%)9.79E-3
M≥70.0120.0000.0000.0000.0000.011 (1.15%)[1.08% 1.21%]0.010 (1.01%)7.80E-3
M≥7.19.93E-30.0000.0000.0000.0009.73E-3 (0.97%)[0.91% 1.04%]8.94E-3 (0.89%)6.64E-3
M≥7.27.57E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.45E-3 (0.74%)[0.69% 0.80%]7.03E-3 (0.70%)5.04E-3
M≥7.35.17E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.11E-3 (0.51%)[0.47% 0.56%]4.90E-3 (0.49%)3.45E-3
M≥7.44.51E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.48E-3 (0.45%)[0.41% 0.49%]4.39E-3 (0.44%)3.06E-3
M≥7.53.42E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.42E-3 (0.34%)[0.31% 0.38%]3.38E-3 (0.34%)2.34E-3
M≥7.61.87E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.87E-3 (0.19%)[0.16% 0.22%]1.86E-3 (0.19%)1.29E-3
M≥7.75.90E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.90E-4 (0.06%)[0.05% 0.08%]5.90E-4 (0.06%)4.20E-4
M≥7.83.50E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.50E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.05%]3.50E-4 (0.03%)2.40E-4
M≥7.92.10E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.10E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.10E-4 (0.02%)1.50E-4
M≥84.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)2.00E-5
M≥8.11.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)1.00E-5
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Week Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 wk Probability1 wk Prob 95% Conf1 wk Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5247.546166.000470.000210.000200.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.020 (2.04%)163.251
M≥2.6196.628130.000374.000167.000158.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.020 (2.04%)129.682
M≥2.7156.186101.000297.000133.000125.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.020 (2.04%)103.026
M≥2.8124.07778.000237.000106.000101.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.020 (2.04%)81.855
M≥2.998.52560.000189.00084.00081.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.020 (2.04%)65.004
M≥378.27546.000151.00067.00063.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.020 (2.04%)51.647
M≥3.162.17435.000121.00053.00050.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.020 (2.04%)41.026
M≥3.249.37427.00096.00042.00042.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.020 (2.04%)32.584
M≥3.339.20920.00077.00034.00032.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.020 (2.04%)25.875
M≥3.431.14615.00062.00027.00025.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.020 (2.04%)20.557
M≥3.524.72111.00050.00021.00020.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.020 (2.04%)16.321
M≥3.619.6418.00041.00017.00016.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.020 (2.04%)12.965
M≥3.715.5956.00033.00013.00012.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.020 (2.04%)10.296
M≥3.812.3824.00027.00011.0009.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.98% 99.99%]0.020 (2.04%)8.174
M≥3.99.8293.00022.0008.0008.0000.999 (99.92%)[99.90% 99.94%]0.020 (2.04%)6.491
M≥47.8062.00018.0007.0006.0000.997 (99.67%)[99.63% 99.71%]0.020 (2.04%)5.154
M≥4.16.1961.00015.0005.0004.0000.990 (98.99%)[98.93% 99.05%]0.020 (2.04%)4.090
M≥4.24.9180.00013.0004.0003.0000.975 (97.49%)[97.39% 97.58%]0.020 (2.04%)3.248
M≥4.33.9030.00011.0003.0003.0000.948 (94.75%)[94.61% 94.89%]0.020 (2.04%)2.578
M≥4.43.1000.0009.0002.0002.0000.905 (90.55%)[90.36% 90.73%]0.020 (2.04%)2.047
M≥4.52.4620.0007.0002.0001.0000.850 (84.95%)[84.73% 85.17%]0.020 (2.04%)1.626
M≥4.61.9530.0006.0001.0001.0000.779 (77.92%)[77.66% 78.17%]0.020 (2.04%)1.290
M≥4.71.5480.0005.0001.0001.0000.700 (69.96%)[69.68% 70.25%]0.020 (2.04%)1.023
M≥4.81.2230.0005.0001.0000.0000.617 (61.74%)[61.44% 62.04%]0.020 (2.04%)0.808
M≥4.90.9660.0004.0001.0000.0000.535 (53.51%)[53.20% 53.82%]0.020 (2.04%)0.639
M≥50.7630.0003.0000.0000.0000.457 (45.65%)[45.34% 45.96%]0.020 (2.04%)0.504
M≥5.10.6000.0003.0000.0000.0000.384 (38.41%)[38.11% 38.71%]0.020 (2.04%)0.398
M≥5.20.4730.0003.0000.0000.0000.320 (32.00%)[31.71% 32.29%]0.020 (2.04%)0.313
M≥5.30.3730.0002.0000.0000.0000.265 (26.48%)[26.21% 26.75%]0.020 (2.04%)0.247
M≥5.40.2930.0002.0000.0000.0000.217 (21.67%)[21.41% 21.92%]0.020 (2.04%)0.194
M≥5.50.2290.0002.0000.0000.0000.175 (17.52%)[17.29% 17.76%]0.020 (2.04%)0.152
M≥5.60.1780.0001.0000.0000.0000.140 (14.00%)[13.79% 14.22%]0.020 (2.04%)0.118
M≥5.70.1370.0001.0000.0000.0000.111 (11.09%)[10.89% 11.28%]0.020 (2.04%)0.091
M≥5.80.1050.0001.0000.0000.0000.087 (8.74%)[8.56% 8.92%]0.020 (2.04%)0.070
M≥5.90.0800.0001.0000.0000.0000.068 (6.84%)[6.68% 7.00%]0.020 (2.03%)0.054
M≥60.0620.0001.0000.0000.0000.054 (5.36%)[5.23% 5.51%]0.020 (2.03%)0.042
M≥6.10.0470.0001.0000.0000.0000.041 (4.09%)[3.97% 4.22%]0.018 (1.77%)0.031
M≥6.20.0310.0001.0000.0000.0000.028 (2.79%)[2.69% 2.89%]0.014 (1.37%)0.021
M≥6.30.0240.0000.0000.0000.0000.021 (2.14%)[2.05% 2.23%]0.011 (1.15%)0.016
M≥6.40.0180.0000.0000.0000.0000.016 (1.62%)[1.54% 1.70%]9.93E-3 (0.99%)0.012
M≥6.50.0140.0000.0000.0000.0000.013 (1.27%)[1.20% 1.34%]8.37E-3 (0.84%)9.36E-3
M≥6.60.0120.0000.0000.0000.0000.011 (1.07%)[1.01% 1.14%]7.68E-3 (0.77%)7.90E-3
M≥6.79.36E-30.0000.0000.0000.0008.71E-3 (0.87%)[0.81% 0.93%]6.74E-3 (0.67%)6.48E-3
M≥6.87.75E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.35E-3 (0.73%)[0.68% 0.79%]6.09E-3 (0.61%)5.44E-3
M≥6.96.03E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.80E-3 (0.58%)[0.53% 0.63%]4.99E-3 (0.50%)4.28E-3
M≥74.80E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.71E-3 (0.47%)[0.43% 0.52%]4.19E-3 (0.42%)3.42E-3
M≥7.14.15E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.09E-3 (0.41%)[0.37% 0.45%]3.79E-3 (0.38%)2.94E-3
M≥7.23.24E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.19E-3 (0.32%)[0.29% 0.36%]3.05E-3 (0.30%)2.29E-3
M≥7.32.27E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.23E-3 (0.22%)[0.20% 0.25%]2.14E-3 (0.21%)1.56E-3
M≥7.41.97E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.96E-3 (0.20%)[0.17% 0.23%]1.93E-3 (0.19%)1.35E-3
M≥7.51.51E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.51E-3 (0.15%)[0.13% 0.18%]1.49E-3 (0.15%)1.03E-3
M≥7.68.50E-40.0000.0000.0000.0008.50E-4 (0.08%)[0.07% 0.11%]8.50E-4 (0.08%)5.70E-4
M≥7.72.80E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)1.80E-4
M≥7.81.70E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.70E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]1.70E-4 (0.02%)1.10E-4
M≥7.99.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0009.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]9.00E-5 (0.01%)6.00E-5
M≥81.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Day Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 d Probability1 d Prob 95% Conf1 d Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.544.03225.00080.00039.00038.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)33.359
M≥2.634.97919.00064.00031.00029.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)26.500
M≥2.727.78614.00052.00024.00023.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)21.052
M≥2.822.07110.00042.00019.00019.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)16.726
M≥2.917.5207.00034.00015.00014.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)13.279
M≥313.9145.00027.00012.00011.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.99% 100.00%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)10.545
M≥3.111.0494.00022.00010.0009.0001.000 (99.98%)[99.97% 99.99%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)8.373
M≥3.28.7762.00019.0008.0007.0000.999 (99.91%)[99.89% 99.93%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)6.652
M≥3.36.9692.00015.0006.0005.0000.996 (99.58%)[99.53% 99.61%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)5.281
M≥3.45.5371.00013.0005.0004.0000.988 (98.78%)[98.71% 98.84%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)4.197
M≥3.54.3950.00011.0004.0003.0000.970 (97.01%)[96.91% 97.12%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)3.332
M≥3.63.4890.0009.0003.0002.0000.939 (93.86%)[93.71% 94.01%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)2.645
M≥3.72.7690.0008.0002.0002.0000.892 (89.21%)[89.02% 89.40%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)2.099
M≥3.82.1950.0006.0002.0001.0000.830 (83.02%)[82.79% 83.26%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)1.665
M≥3.91.7400.0005.0001.0001.0000.757 (75.69%)[75.42% 75.95%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)1.321
M≥41.3830.0005.0001.0001.0000.678 (67.75%)[67.46% 68.04%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)1.050
M≥4.11.0970.0004.0001.0000.0000.595 (59.48%)[59.17% 59.78%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)0.833
M≥4.20.8700.0004.0001.0000.0000.513 (51.26%)[50.95% 51.57%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)0.661
M≥4.30.6900.0003.0000.0000.0000.437 (43.74%)[43.43% 44.04%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)0.525
M≥4.40.5480.0003.0000.0000.0000.367 (36.73%)[36.44% 37.03%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)0.417
M≥4.50.4350.0002.0000.0000.0000.306 (30.65%)[30.36% 30.94%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)0.331
M≥4.60.3440.0002.0000.0000.0000.252 (25.22%)[24.95% 25.49%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)0.261
M≥4.70.2720.0002.0000.0000.0000.207 (20.67%)[20.42% 20.92%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)0.207
M≥4.80.2160.0002.0000.0000.0000.168 (16.85%)[16.62% 17.08%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)0.164
M≥4.90.1700.0001.0000.0000.0000.137 (13.67%)[13.45% 13.88%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)0.130
M≥50.1340.0001.0000.0000.0000.110 (10.98%)[10.79% 11.18%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)0.102
M≥5.10.1060.0001.0000.0000.0000.088 (8.82%)[8.65% 9.00%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)0.081
M≥5.20.0840.0001.0000.0000.0000.071 (7.11%)[6.95% 7.27%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)0.064
M≥5.30.0670.0001.0000.0000.0000.057 (5.70%)[5.56% 5.85%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)0.051
M≥5.40.0520.0001.0000.0000.0000.046 (4.55%)[4.43% 4.69%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)0.040
M≥5.50.0410.0001.0000.0000.0000.036 (3.60%)[3.49% 3.72%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)0.032
M≥5.60.0310.0001.0000.0000.0000.028 (2.79%)[2.69% 2.89%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)0.024
M≥5.70.0240.0000.0000.0000.0000.022 (2.19%)[2.10% 2.29%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)0.019
M≥5.80.0190.0000.0000.0000.0000.017 (1.74%)[1.66% 1.82%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)0.015
M≥5.90.0150.0000.0000.0000.0000.013 (1.34%)[1.27% 1.42%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)0.011
M≥60.0110.0000.0000.0000.0000.011 (1.07%)[1.01% 1.14%]3.71E-3 (0.37%)8.93E-3
M≥6.18.52E-30.0000.0000.0000.0008.09E-3 (0.81%)[0.75% 0.87%]3.26E-3 (0.33%)6.69E-3
M≥6.25.74E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.49E-3 (0.55%)[0.50% 0.60%]2.60E-3 (0.26%)4.44E-3
M≥6.34.22E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.03E-3 (0.40%)[0.37% 0.44%]2.08E-3 (0.21%)3.29E-3
M≥6.43.23E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.07E-3 (0.31%)[0.27% 0.34%]1.83E-3 (0.18%)2.52E-3
M≥6.52.41E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.28E-3 (0.23%)[0.20% 0.26%]1.44E-3 (0.14%)1.83E-3
M≥6.61.92E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.85E-3 (0.18%)[0.16% 0.21%]1.32E-3 (0.13%)1.50E-3
M≥6.71.68E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.63E-3 (0.16%)[0.14% 0.19%]1.27E-3 (0.13%)1.34E-3
M≥6.81.48E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.45E-3 (0.14%)[0.12% 0.17%]1.18E-3 (0.12%)1.17E-3
M≥6.91.09E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.08E-3 (0.11%)[0.09% 0.13%]9.10E-4 (0.09%)8.40E-4
M≥78.10E-40.0000.0000.0000.0008.10E-4 (0.08%)[0.06% 0.10%]7.20E-4 (0.07%)6.00E-4
M≥7.17.50E-40.0000.0000.0000.0007.50E-4 (0.07%)[0.06% 0.09%]6.90E-4 (0.07%)5.40E-4
M≥7.25.50E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.50E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.07%]5.30E-4 (0.05%)3.90E-4
M≥7.34.10E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.10E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)2.90E-4
M≥7.43.80E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.80E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.05%]3.80E-4 (0.04%)2.70E-4
M≥7.53.10E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.10E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]3.10E-4 (0.03%)2.30E-4
M≥7.61.70E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.70E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]1.70E-4 (0.02%)1.30E-4
M≥7.72.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.81.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.91.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)0.000
M≥80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Hour Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 hr Probability1 hr Prob 95% Conf1 hr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.51.6880.0005.0001.0001.0000.789 (78.92%)[78.67% 79.17%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)1.558
M≥2.61.3410.0004.0001.0001.0000.711 (71.14%)[70.85% 71.42%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)1.238
M≥2.71.0670.0004.0001.0000.0000.628 (62.85%)[62.55% 63.15%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)0.985
M≥2.80.8450.0003.0001.0000.0000.543 (54.33%)[54.02% 54.64%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)0.780
M≥2.90.6710.0003.0000.0000.0000.463 (46.27%)[45.96% 46.58%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)0.619
M≥30.5340.0002.0000.0000.0000.391 (39.08%)[38.78% 39.39%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)0.492
M≥3.10.4230.0002.0000.0000.0000.326 (32.56%)[32.27% 32.85%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)0.390
M≥3.20.3370.0002.0000.0000.0000.270 (27.00%)[26.73% 27.28%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)0.311
M≥3.30.2670.0002.0000.0000.0000.221 (22.06%)[21.81% 22.32%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)0.246
M≥3.40.2110.0001.0000.0000.0000.180 (17.97%)[17.73% 18.21%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)0.194
M≥3.50.1670.0001.0000.0000.0000.145 (14.51%)[14.29% 14.73%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)0.154
M≥3.60.1320.0001.0000.0000.0000.117 (11.74%)[11.54% 11.94%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)0.122
M≥3.70.1040.0001.0000.0000.0000.094 (9.39%)[9.21% 9.57%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)0.096
M≥3.80.0820.0001.0000.0000.0000.075 (7.51%)[7.35% 7.68%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)0.076
M≥3.90.0650.0001.0000.0000.0000.060 (5.96%)[5.82% 6.11%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)0.060
M≥40.0510.0001.0000.0000.0000.047 (4.73%)[4.60% 4.87%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)0.047
M≥4.10.0410.0001.0000.0000.0000.038 (3.82%)[3.70% 3.94%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)0.038
M≥4.20.0330.0001.0000.0000.0000.031 (3.11%)[3.00% 3.22%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)0.031
M≥4.30.0260.0000.0000.0000.0000.025 (2.47%)[2.38% 2.57%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)0.024
M≥4.40.0200.0000.0000.0000.0000.020 (1.96%)[1.87% 2.04%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)0.019
M≥4.50.0160.0000.0000.0000.0000.016 (1.56%)[1.48% 1.64%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)0.015
M≥4.60.0130.0000.0000.0000.0000.012 (1.25%)[1.18% 1.32%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)0.012
M≥4.70.0100.0000.0000.0000.0009.82E-3 (0.98%)[0.92% 1.05%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)9.45E-3
M≥4.88.06E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.80E-3 (0.78%)[0.73% 0.84%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)7.49E-3
M≥4.96.50E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.31E-3 (0.63%)[0.58% 0.68%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)6.05E-3
M≥55.08E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.92E-3 (0.49%)[0.45% 0.54%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)4.77E-3
M≥5.14.00E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.86E-3 (0.39%)[0.35% 0.43%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)3.74E-3
M≥5.23.21E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.09E-3 (0.31%)[0.28% 0.35%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)3.03E-3
M≥5.32.62E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.54E-3 (0.25%)[0.22% 0.29%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)2.49E-3
M≥5.42.02E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.97E-3 (0.20%)[0.17% 0.23%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)1.92E-3
M≥5.51.57E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.52E-3 (0.15%)[0.13% 0.18%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)1.47E-3
M≥5.61.13E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.10E-3 (0.11%)[0.09% 0.13%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)1.06E-3
M≥5.79.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0008.90E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)8.50E-4
M≥5.86.80E-40.0000.0000.0000.0006.80E-4 (0.07%)[0.05% 0.09%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)6.40E-4
M≥5.95.30E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.30E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)5.00E-4
M≥63.70E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.70E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.05%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)3.60E-4
M≥6.12.50E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.50E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)2.40E-4
M≥6.21.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)1.50E-4
M≥6.31.10E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.10E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]6.00E-5 (0.01%)1.00E-4
M≥6.48.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0008.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]6.00E-5 (0.01%)8.00E-5
M≥6.58.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0008.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]6.00E-5 (0.01%)8.00E-5
M≥6.67.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0007.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]5.00E-5 (0.01%)7.00E-5
M≥6.77.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0007.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]5.00E-5 (0.01%)7.00E-5
M≥6.86.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0006.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)6.00E-5
M≥6.94.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)4.00E-5
M≥72.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)2.00E-5
M≥7.11.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)1.00E-5
M≥7.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥7.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Hazard Change Over Time

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These plots show how the probability of ruptures of various magnitudes within the region used to fetch ComCat trigger ruptures changes over time

M≥5.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard ChangeGain
Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour4.86E-3 [4.44E-3 - 5.31E-3]4.83E-33.07E-5158.323.05E-5
1 Day0.109 [0.107 - 0.111]0.1087.37E-4147.677.31E-4
1 Week0.454 [0.450 - 0.457]0.4515.14E-388.165.11E-3
1 Month0.764 [0.761 - 0.767]0.7590.02234.950.022
1 Year0.973 [0.972 - 0.974]0.9650.2364.120.234
10 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000]0.9940.9321.070.931
30 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **1.0001 *1.000
100 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **1.0001 *1.000

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥6.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard ChangeGain
Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour3.54E-4 [2.51E-4 - 4.96E-4]3.50E-43.54E-61003.31E-6
1 Day0.011 [9.95E-3 - 0.011]0.0108.48E-5124.517.95E-5
1 Week0.053 [0.052 - 0.054]0.0525.94E-489.235.56E-4
1 Month0.125 [0.123 - 0.127]0.1232.54E-349.082.38E-3
1 Year0.294 [0.292 - 0.297]0.2720.0319.640.029
10 Years0.559 [0.556 - 0.561]0.3980.2672.090.252
30 Years0.764 [0.762 - 0.765] **0.6071.26 *0.581
100 Years0.975 [0.974 - 0.975] **0.9581.02 *0.945

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥7.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard ChangeGain
Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour2.04E-5 [3.83E-6 - 8.10E-5]2.00E-53.61E-756.43.22E-7
1 Day8.09E-4 [6.47E-4 - 1.01E-3]8.00E-48.66E-693.347.73E-6
1 Week4.64E-3 [4.24E-3 - 5.08E-3]4.58E-36.06E-576.525.41E-5
1 Month0.011 [0.011 - 0.012]0.0112.60E-444.162.32E-4
1 Year0.030 [0.029 - 0.031]0.0273.16E-39.592.82E-3
10 Years0.073 [0.072 - 0.074]0.0430.0312.340.028
30 Years0.132 [0.131 - 0.133] **0.0931.42 *0.081
100 Years0.325 [0.324 - 0.326] **0.2951.1 *0.246

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥8.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard ChangeGain
Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour1.24E-8 [1.24E-8 - 4.79E-5]0.0001.24E-811.06E-8
1 Day2.97E-7 [2.97E-7 - 4.82E-5]0.0002.97E-712.54E-7
1 Week1.21E-5 [2.60E-6 - 6.70E-5]1.00E-52.08E-65.811.78E-6
1 Month4.89E-5 [2.17E-5 - 1.19E-4]4.00E-58.91E-65.497.63E-6
1 Year2.18E-4 [1.66E-4 - 3.12E-4]1.10E-41.08E-42.019.29E-5
10 Years1.32E-3 [1.24E-3 - 1.44E-3]2.20E-41.10E-31.29.29E-4
30 Years3.72E-3 [3.64E-3 - 3.84E-3] **3.50E-31.06 *2.78E-3
100 Years0.014 [0.014 - 0.014] **0.0141.02 *9.25E-3

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

Trigger Rupture Fault Map

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Map

Trigger Rupture Depth Map

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Map

Fault Distances To Triggers

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Section NameStrike, Dip, Rake# Hypos In PolyMax Mag w/ Hypo In Poly# Surfs In PolyMax Mag w/ Surf In PolyMin Dist To Any (km)Min Poly Dist To Any (km)Min Dist To Largest (km)Min Poly Dist To Largest (km)Min Hypo Dist To Largest (km)Min Hypo Poly Dist To Largest (km)
Airport Lake359, 50, -907767.17767.10.1450.0000.2230.0005.6120.000
Little Lake327, 90, 1802705.52717.11.9370.0009.7880.00013.4711.469
Garlock (Central)71, 90, 0954.49967.10.2250.0005.6970.00031.94719.940
So Sierra Nevada2, 50, -90614.52614.521.1340.0002.5041.92616.19115.188
Ash Hill162, 90, 180153.57153.570.5630.00035.29624.23936.00325.242
Panamint Valley334, 90, -150143.57143.576.4080.00030.38718.41540.23628.550
Tank Canyon189, 50, -9013.013.01.2520.0009.8849.19523.73723.674
Blackwater323, 90, 18013.5413.545.3960.00013.5919.54739.38038.300
Sierra Nevada (No Extension)344, 50, -90005.6963.69637.96837.56558.68058.391
Owens Valley346, 90, 1800013.56712.58146.82646.45368.29966.819
Scodie Lineament221, 68, 00016.72215.78127.68526.53736.55932.668
Lenwood-Lockhart-Old Woman Springs301, 90, 1800018.69216.53452.12640.30263.64653.437
Garlock (West)56, 90, 00019.04218.94964.10462.04066.72762.627

Individual Simulated Catalog Maps

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These are map plots of individual catalogs from the simulations, selected as the closest catalog to each of the given percentiles in terms of total number of events.

Durationp0.0 %-ilep25.0 %-ilep50.0 %-ilep75.0 %-ilep90.0 %-ilep95.0 %-ilep97.5 %-ilep98.0 %-ilep99.0 %-ilep99.5 %-ilep99.9 %-ilep100.0 %-ile
1 WeekMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap
1 MonthMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap
1 YearMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap
10 YearMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap

ComCat Data Comparisons

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These plots compare simulated sequences with data from ComCat. All plots only consider events with hypocenters inside the ComCat region defined in the JSON input file.

Last updated at 2021/10/13 01:35:46 UTC, 2.3 years after the simulation start time.

Total matching ComCat events found: 919

ComCat Magnitude-Number Distributions

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Incremental MNDCumulative MND
Incremental MNDCumi MND

ComCat Magnitude-Time Functions

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These plots show the show the magnitude versus time probability function since simulation start. Observed event data lie on top, with those input to the simulation plotted as magenta circles and those that occurred after the simulation start time as cyan circles. Time is relative to the simulation start time. Probabilities are only shown above the minimum simulated magnitude, M=2.5.

One Week
One Month
Full Mag/Time

ComCat Time-Dependent Mc

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The following plots compare simulation results with ComCat data above a magnitude threshold. Plots labeled as M≥Mc(t) use the time-dependent magnitude of completeness (Mc) defined in Helmstetter et al. (2006), which is plotted below. In the case of multiple M≥5 ruptures, either as input to the simulation or in the comparison data, the maximum calculated time-dependent Mc is used. This time-dependent Mc function is plotted below.

TD MC

ComCat Cumulative Number Vs Time

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M≥Mc(t)M≥3.5M≥4M≥5M≥6M≥7
MNDMNDMNDMNDMNDMND

ComCat Cumulative Number Simulation Percentiles

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MND

ComCat Probability Spatial Distribution

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1 Day1 Week1 Month1 YearCurrent (2.3 Year)
M≥Mc(t)MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 29Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 221Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 406Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 801Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 917
M≥3.5MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 96.86%, Actual: 1Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 17Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 28Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 71Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 82
M≥4MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 67.20%, Actual: 0Prob: 99.64%, Actual: 4Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 6Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 13Prob: 100.00%, Actual: 15
M≥5MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 10.81%, Actual: 0Prob: 45.07%, Actual: 0Prob: 75.87%, Actual: 0Prob: 96.45%, Actual: 1Prob: 98.11%, Actual: 1
M≥6MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 1.05%, Actual: 0Prob: 5.22%, Actual: 0Prob: 12.20%, Actual: 0Prob: 27.10%, Actual: 0Prob: 31.75%, Actual: 0
M≥7MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 0.08%, Actual: 0Prob: 0.45%, Actual: 0Prob: 1.11%, Actual: 0Prob: 2.68%, Actual: 0Prob: 3.21%, Actual: 0
M≥8MapMapMapMapMap
Prob: 0.00%, Actual: 0Prob: 0.00%, Actual: 0Prob: 0.00%, Actual: 0Prob: 0.01%, Actual: 0Prob: 0.01%, Actual: 0

ComCat Mean Expectation Spatial Distribution

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1 Day1 Week1 Month1 YearCurrent (2.3 Year)
M≥Mc(t)MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 42.483, Actual: 29Mean: 235.426, Actual: 221Mean: 592.593, Actual: 406Mean: 1520.108, Actual: 801Mean: 1862.682, Actual: 917
M≥3.5MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 4.241, Actual: 1Mean: 23.514, Actual: 17Mean: 59.175, Actual: 28Mean: 151.850, Actual: 71Mean: 186.097, Actual: 82
M≥4MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 1.334, Actual: 0Mean: 7.424, Actual: 4Mean: 18.675, Actual: 6Mean: 47.938, Actual: 13Mean: 58.754, Actual: 15
M≥5MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 0.129, Actual: 0Mean: 0.724, Actual: 0Mean: 1.815, Actual: 0Mean: 4.670, Actual: 1Mean: 5.721, Actual: 1
M≥6MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 0.011, Actual: 0Mean: 0.058, Actual: 0Mean: 0.145, Actual: 0Mean: 0.369, Actual: 0Mean: 0.450, Actual: 0
M≥7MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 8.00E-4, Actual: 0Mean: 4.53E-3, Actual: 0Mean: 0.011, Actual: 0Mean: 0.028, Actual: 0Mean: 0.033, Actual: 0
M≥8MapMapMapMapMap
Mean: 0.000, Actual: 0Mean: 1.00E-5, Actual: 0Mean: 4.00E-5, Actual: 0Mean: 1.10E-4, Actual: 0Mean: 1.30E-4, Actual: 0

ComCat Depth Distribution

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M≥Mc(t)M≥3.5M≥4M≥5M≥6M≥7M≥8
Depth DistributionDepth DistributionDepth DistributionDepth DistributionDepth DistributionDepth DistributionDepth Distribution

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min Mag1 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)10 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)10 yr Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 186 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
Garlock (Central)0.086231.68E-3 (0.17%)[0.14% 0.20%]9.56E-3 (0.96%)[0.90% 1.02%]0.022 (2.25%)[2.16% 2.34%]0.053 (5.31%)[5.17% 5.45%]0.083 (8.32%)[8.15% 8.49%]0.04881
Tank Canyon0.069517.60E-4 (0.08%)[0.06% 0.10%]4.25E-3 (0.43%)[0.39% 0.47%]0.012 (1.22%)[1.15% 1.29%]0.034 (3.36%)[3.25% 3.47%]0.060 (5.96%)[5.81% 6.11%]0.01774
Little Lake0.035387.70E-4 (0.08%)[0.06% 0.10%]3.78E-3 (0.38%)[0.34% 0.42%]8.99E-3 (0.90%)[0.84% 0.96%]0.022 (2.20%)[2.11% 2.29%]0.035 (3.46%)[3.34% 3.57%]0.02096
Owl Lake0.027483.50E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.05%]2.27E-3 (0.23%)[0.20% 0.26%]5.59E-3 (0.56%)[0.51% 0.61%]0.014 (1.44%)[1.36% 1.51%]0.024 (2.40%)[2.31% 2.50%]0.00742
Airport Lake0.022574.60E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.06%]2.56E-3 (0.26%)[0.23% 0.29%]5.85E-3 (0.58%)[0.54% 0.63%]0.014 (1.44%)[1.37% 1.52%]0.022 (2.25%)[2.16% 2.34%]0.01473
Panamint Valley0.020523.10E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]1.65E-3 (0.17%)[0.14% 0.19%]4.31E-3 (0.43%)[0.39% 0.47%]0.011 (1.15%)[1.09% 1.22%]0.020 (1.99%)[1.91% 2.08%]0.00724
Garlock (East)0.018082.10E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]1.54E-3 (0.15%)[0.13% 0.18%]3.54E-3 (0.35%)[0.32% 0.39%]9.35E-3 (0.94%)[0.88% 1.00%]0.016 (1.60%)[1.53% 1.68%]0.00474
Hunter Mountain-Saline Valley0.009272.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]7.90E-4 (0.08%)[0.06% 0.10%]2.01E-3 (0.20%)[0.17% 0.23%]5.32E-3 (0.53%)[0.49% 0.58%]9.10E-3 (0.91%)[0.85% 0.97%]0.0043
Ash Hill0.008951.80E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]7.80E-4 (0.08%)[0.06% 0.10%]1.77E-3 (0.18%)[0.15% 0.21%]4.80E-3 (0.48%)[0.44% 0.53%]8.52E-3 (0.85%)[0.80% 0.91%]0.00223
Blackwater0.007285.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]1.05E-3 (0.10%)[0.09% 0.13%]3.77E-3 (0.38%)[0.34% 0.42%]7.06E-3 (0.71%)[0.66% 0.76%]0.00153

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 155 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
Garlock (Central)0.037257.20E-4 (0.07%)[0.06% 0.09%]4.12E-3 (0.41%)[0.37% 0.45%]9.82E-3 (0.98%)[0.92% 1.05%]0.023 (2.31%)[2.21% 2.40%]0.036 (3.65%)[3.53% 3.76%]0.0204
Little Lake0.019954.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]2.21E-3 (0.22%)[0.19% 0.25%]5.10E-3 (0.51%)[0.47% 0.56%]0.013 (1.26%)[1.19% 1.33%]0.020 (1.97%)[1.88% 2.06%]0.0121
Panamint Valley0.018932.90E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]1.57E-3 (0.16%)[0.13% 0.18%]4.10E-3 (0.41%)[0.37% 0.45%]0.011 (1.07%)[1.01% 1.13%]0.018 (1.84%)[1.76% 1.93%]0.00709
Airport Lake0.016443.30E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.05%]1.83E-3 (0.18%)[0.16% 0.21%]4.37E-3 (0.44%)[0.40% 0.48%]0.011 (1.07%)[1.01% 1.14%]0.016 (1.64%)[1.56% 1.72%]0.0109
Owl Lake0.015632.70E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]1.53E-3 (0.15%)[0.13% 0.18%]3.98E-3 (0.40%)[0.36% 0.44%]9.73E-3 (0.97%)[0.91% 1.04%]0.016 (1.55%)[1.48% 1.63%]0.00676
Garlock (East)0.011851.80E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]1.18E-3 (0.12%)[0.10% 0.14%]2.64E-3 (0.26%)[0.23% 0.30%]6.60E-3 (0.66%)[0.61% 0.71%]0.011 (1.11%)[1.04% 1.17%]0.00455
Hunter Mountain-Saline Valley0.009082.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]7.70E-4 (0.08%)[0.06% 0.10%]1.96E-3 (0.20%)[0.17% 0.23%]5.23E-3 (0.52%)[0.48% 0.57%]8.95E-3 (0.90%)[0.84% 0.96%]0.00424
Tank Canyon0.007887.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]4.60E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.06%]1.56E-3 (0.16%)[0.13% 0.18%]4.22E-3 (0.42%)[0.38% 0.46%]7.85E-3 (0.78%)[0.73% 0.84%]0.00211
Garlock (West)0.006141.40E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]7.40E-4 (0.07%)[0.06% 0.09%]1.56E-3 (0.16%)[0.13% 0.18%]3.85E-3 (0.39%)[0.35% 0.43%]6.13E-3 (0.61%)[0.57% 0.66%]0.00344
So Sierra Nevada0.003334.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.30E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]7.10E-4 (0.07%)[0.06% 0.09%]1.95E-3 (0.19%)[0.17% 0.22%]3.29E-3 (0.33%)[0.29% 0.37%]6.8E-4

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 103 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
Garlock (Central)0.032976.50E-4 (0.07%)[0.05% 0.08%]3.64E-3 (0.36%)[0.33% 0.40%]8.66E-3 (0.87%)[0.81% 0.93%]0.020 (2.05%)[1.96% 2.14%]0.032 (3.24%)[3.13% 3.35%]0.01794
Panamint Valley0.012812.10E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]1.14E-3 (0.11%)[0.09% 0.14%]2.99E-3 (0.30%)[0.27% 0.34%]7.68E-3 (0.77%)[0.72% 0.82%]0.013 (1.28%)[1.21% 1.35%]0.00597
Owl Lake0.011582.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.02% 0.04%]1.33E-3 (0.13%)[0.11% 0.16%]3.22E-3 (0.32%)[0.29% 0.36%]7.58E-3 (0.76%)[0.71% 0.81%]0.012 (1.16%)[1.09% 1.23%]0.00654
Hunter Mountain-Saline Valley0.008731.80E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]7.40E-4 (0.07%)[0.06% 0.09%]1.91E-3 (0.19%)[0.17% 0.22%]5.08E-3 (0.51%)[0.47% 0.55%]8.72E-3 (0.87%)[0.82% 0.93%]0.00418
Garlock (East)0.008381.80E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]1.03E-3 (0.10%)[0.08% 0.13%]2.25E-3 (0.22%)[0.20% 0.26%]5.27E-3 (0.53%)[0.48% 0.57%]8.32E-3 (0.83%)[0.78% 0.89%]0.00444
Garlock (West)0.006091.40E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]7.40E-4 (0.07%)[0.06% 0.09%]1.56E-3 (0.16%)[0.13% 0.18%]3.84E-3 (0.38%)[0.35% 0.42%]6.09E-3 (0.61%)[0.56% 0.66%]0.00344
Little Lake0.003695.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]3.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.05%]9.30E-4 (0.09%)[0.08% 0.11%]2.51E-3 (0.25%)[0.22% 0.28%]3.68E-3 (0.37%)[0.33% 0.41%]0.00241
Airport Lake0.003354.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]8.20E-4 (0.08%)[0.07% 0.10%]2.28E-3 (0.23%)[0.20% 0.26%]3.35E-3 (0.34%)[0.30% 0.37%]0.00221
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.002642.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.90E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]6.20E-4 (0.06%)[0.05% 0.08%]1.56E-3 (0.16%)[0.13% 0.18%]2.57E-3 (0.26%)[0.23% 0.29%]0.00141
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.001832.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.30E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]5.10E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]1.09E-3 (0.11%)[0.09% 0.13%]1.82E-3 (0.18%)[0.16% 0.21%]9.1E-4

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 66 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
Garlock (Central)0.013353.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]1.40E-3 (0.14%)[0.12% 0.17%]3.21E-3 (0.32%)[0.29% 0.36%]8.12E-3 (0.81%)[0.76% 0.87%]0.013 (1.33%)[1.26% 1.40%]0.00723
Panamint Valley0.008471.80E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]7.30E-4 (0.07%)[0.06% 0.09%]1.87E-3 (0.19%)[0.16% 0.22%]4.89E-3 (0.49%)[0.45% 0.53%]8.47E-3 (0.85%)[0.79% 0.91%]0.00412
Hunter Mountain-Saline Valley0.008441.80E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]7.20E-4 (0.07%)[0.06% 0.09%]1.86E-3 (0.19%)[0.16% 0.22%]4.88E-3 (0.49%)[0.45% 0.53%]8.44E-3 (0.84%)[0.79% 0.90%]0.00412
Garlock (West)0.005491.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]7.00E-4 (0.07%)[0.05% 0.09%]1.42E-3 (0.14%)[0.12% 0.17%]3.48E-3 (0.35%)[0.31% 0.39%]5.49E-3 (0.55%)[0.50% 0.60%]0.00318
Garlock (East)0.003247.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]3.70E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.05%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)[0.06% 0.10%]2.04E-3 (0.20%)[0.18% 0.23%]3.24E-3 (0.32%)[0.29% 0.36%]0.00187
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.002612.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]6.10E-4 (0.06%)[0.05% 0.08%]1.55E-3 (0.15%)[0.13% 0.18%]2.55E-3 (0.26%)[0.23% 0.29%]0.00141
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.001762.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.10E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]4.80E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.06%]1.04E-3 (0.10%)[0.09% 0.13%]1.75E-3 (0.18%)[0.15% 0.20%]8.9E-4
Owl Lake0.001243.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.70E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]3.50E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.05%]8.60E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.24E-3 (0.12%)[0.10% 0.15%]7.8E-4
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.001051.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.30E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]2.60E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]5.80E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.08%]1.05E-3 (0.10%)[0.09% 0.13%]5.1E-4
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)5.0E-41.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]9.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]2.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.02% 0.04%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]1.9E-4

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 27 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (Mojave N)2.5E-40.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]2.50E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]1.4E-4
San Andreas (Mojave S)2.5E-40.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]2.50E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]1.4E-4
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)2.5E-40.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]2.50E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]1.4E-4
Garlock (Central)2.2E-40.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.10E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]2.20E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]1.3E-4
Garlock (West)2.2E-40.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.10E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]2.20E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]1.3E-4
Garlock (East)1.6E-40.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]9.0E-5
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)1.5E-40.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]6.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.50E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.03%]7.0E-5
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)1.4E-40.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]5.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]7.0E-5
San Andreas (Coachella) rev1.1E-40.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.10E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]5.0E-5
San Jacinto (San Bernardino)6.0E-50.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]6.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]5.0E-5

Fault Magnitude-Probability Distributions

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The first 5 sections (sorted by trigger rate) are plotted below. All fault MPDs are available here

1 Week1 Month1 Year10 Year
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥2.5Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 100000,
  "duration": 10.0,
  "startTimeMillis": 1562987994040,
  "includeSpontaneous": false,
  "randomSeed": 1562998625418,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "simulationName": "ComCat M7.1 (ci38457511), 7 Days After, Finite Surface",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "/home/scec-02/kmilner/ucerf3/etas_sim/2019_07_12-ComCatM7p1_ci38457511_7DaysAfter_FiniteSurface-noSpont-full_td-scale1.14",
  "triggerRuptures": [
    "omitted due to length, see original input file"
  ],
  "cacheDir": "/export/opensha-00/kmilner/ucerf3-etas-launcher/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "/export/opensha-00/kmilner/ucerf3-etas-launcher/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.14,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
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