Searless Valley Sequence Finite Fault Results

Searless Valley Sequence Finite Fault
Num Simulations100000
Start Time2019/07/06 03:19:53 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1562383193000
Duration10 Years
Includes Spontaneous?false
Trigger Ruptures217 Trigger Ruptures
First: M3.98 at 2019/07/04 17:02:55 UTC
Last: M7.1 at 2019/07/06 03:19:52 UTC
Largest: M7.1 at 2019/07/06 03:19:52 UTC
Trigger Ruptures(none)

Table Of Contents

Probabilities Summary Table

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Magnitude1 Hour Prob1 Day Prob1 Week Prob1 Month Prob1 Year Prob10 Year Prob
M≥41.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf[100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%]
M≥4.50.991 (99.10%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf[99.04% 99.16%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%]
M≥50.773 (77.34%)0.978 (97.79%)0.996 (99.58%)0.999 (99.87%)1.000 (99.98%)1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf[77.08% 77.60%][97.70% 97.88%][99.53% 99.61%][99.85% 99.89%][99.97% 99.99%][99.99% 100.00%]
M≥5.50.357 (35.68%)0.689 (68.89%)0.814 (81.37%)0.875 (87.53%)0.939 (93.86%)0.968 (96.77%)
95% Conf[35.39% 35.98%][68.60% 69.17%][81.13% 81.61%][87.32% 87.73%][93.71% 94.01%][96.66% 96.88%]
M≥60.108 (10.75%)0.266 (26.62%)0.366 (36.57%)0.437 (43.70%)0.545 (54.51%)0.627 (62.74%)
95% Conf[10.56% 10.95%][26.35% 26.90%][36.27% 36.87%][43.40% 44.01%][54.20% 54.81%][62.44% 63.04%]
M≥6.50.023 (2.29%)0.062 (6.16%)0.091 (9.08%)0.114 (11.38%)0.156 (15.65%)0.195 (19.52%)
95% Conf[2.20% 2.38%][6.01% 6.31%][8.90% 9.26%][11.19% 11.58%][15.42% 15.88%][19.27% 19.76%]
M≥75.86E-3 (0.59%)0.016 (1.62%)0.024 (2.42%)0.031 (3.06%)0.043 (4.32%)0.055 (5.51%)
95% Conf[0.54% 0.64%][1.54% 1.70%][2.33% 2.52%][2.96% 3.17%][4.19% 4.45%][5.37% 5.65%]
M≥7.14.67E-3 (0.47%)0.013 (1.27%)0.019 (1.92%)0.024 (2.42%)0.034 (3.41%)0.043 (4.35%)
95% Conf[0.43% 0.51%][1.21% 1.35%][1.84% 2.01%][2.33% 2.52%][3.30% 3.52%][4.22% 4.47%]
M≥7.51.53E-3 (0.15%)4.01E-3 (0.40%)6.33E-3 (0.63%)8.05E-3 (0.80%)0.011 (1.14%)0.015 (1.46%)
95% Conf[0.13% 0.18%][0.36% 0.44%][0.59% 0.68%][0.75% 0.86%][1.08% 1.21%][1.39% 1.54%]
M≥81.00E-5 (0.00%)4.00E-5 (0.00%)9.00E-5 (0.01%)1.10E-4 (0.01%)1.60E-4 (0.02%)2.30E-4 (0.02%)
95% Conf[0.00% 0.01%][0.00% 0.01%][0.00% 0.02%][0.01% 0.02%][0.01% 0.03%][0.01% 0.04%]

Magnitude Number Distribution

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10 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode10 yr Probability10 yr Prob 95% Conf10 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.55248.0483641.00011960.0004564.0004154.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.273 (27.26%)2381.891
M≥2.64168.5012886.0009504.0003626.0003244.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.273 (27.26%)1891.879
M≥2.73311.0672288.0007564.0002881.0002642.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.273 (27.26%)1502.766
M≥2.82629.9941812.0006005.0002288.0002183.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.273 (27.26%)1193.638
M≥2.92089.0181436.0004772.0001819.0001653.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.273 (27.26%)948.108
M≥31659.2841136.0003785.0001446.0001354.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.273 (27.26%)752.967
M≥3.11317.865898.0003015.0001148.0001092.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.273 (27.26%)598.022
M≥3.21046.777709.0002393.000913.000827.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.273 (27.26%)474.973
M≥3.3831.351560.0001899.000725.000688.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.273 (27.26%)377.209
M≥3.4660.181441.0001511.000577.000545.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.273 (27.26%)299.560
M≥3.5524.321347.0001202.000458.000441.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.273 (27.26%)237.919
M≥3.6416.399272.000957.000365.000347.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.273 (27.26%)188.935
M≥3.7330.653213.000761.000290.000267.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.273 (27.26%)150.018
M≥3.8262.584167.000605.000230.000214.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.273 (27.26%)119.119
M≥3.9208.501130.000481.000183.000167.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.273 (27.26%)94.576
M≥4165.526101.000384.000146.000132.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.273 (27.26%)75.082
M≥4.1131.42478.000306.000116.000107.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.273 (27.26%)59.610
M≥4.2104.32560.000244.00092.00083.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.273 (27.26%)47.310
M≥4.382.78046.000195.00073.00067.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.273 (27.26%)37.541
M≥4.465.65035.000154.00058.00051.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.273 (27.26%)29.781
M≥4.552.06827.000123.00046.00041.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.273 (27.26%)23.626
M≥4.641.26620.00098.00037.00033.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.273 (27.26%)18.732
M≥4.732.67215.00079.00029.00025.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.273 (27.26%)14.822
M≥4.825.86511.00063.00023.00021.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.273 (27.26%)11.733
M≥4.920.4468.00050.00018.00016.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.273 (27.26%)9.274
M≥516.1435.00040.00014.00012.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.99% 100.00%]0.273 (27.26%)7.322
M≥5.112.7264.00032.00011.00010.0001.000 (99.98%)[99.97% 99.99%]0.273 (27.26%)5.770
M≥5.210.0132.00026.0009.0008.0000.999 (99.88%)[99.86% 99.90%]0.273 (27.26%)4.536
M≥5.37.8552.00021.0007.0005.0000.995 (99.51%)[99.46% 99.55%]0.273 (27.26%)3.557
M≥5.46.1511.00017.0005.0004.0000.986 (98.64%)[98.57% 98.71%]0.273 (27.26%)2.785
M≥5.54.7900.00014.0004.0003.0000.968 (96.77%)[96.66% 96.88%]0.273 (27.26%)2.165
M≥5.63.7120.00011.0003.0002.0000.933 (93.26%)[93.10% 93.41%]0.273 (27.26%)1.674
M≥5.72.8550.0009.0002.0002.0000.880 (88.00%)[87.80% 88.21%]0.273 (27.26%)1.284
M≥5.82.1750.0007.0002.0001.0000.808 (80.79%)[80.55% 81.03%]0.273 (27.26%)0.976
M≥5.91.6400.0006.0001.0001.0000.720 (72.00%)[71.72% 72.28%]0.273 (27.25%)0.732
M≥61.2520.0005.0001.0000.0000.627 (62.74%)[62.44% 63.04%]0.272 (27.23%)0.551
M≥6.10.8910.0004.0001.0000.0000.514 (51.39%)[51.07% 51.70%]0.220 (21.99%)0.398
M≥6.20.6080.0003.0000.0000.0000.399 (39.87%)[39.56% 40.17%]0.186 (18.63%)0.272
M≥6.30.4460.0003.0000.0000.0000.316 (31.61%)[31.32% 31.90%]0.153 (15.32%)0.201
M≥6.40.3350.0002.0000.0000.0000.250 (24.97%)[24.71% 25.24%]0.135 (13.51%)0.149
M≥6.50.2510.0002.0000.0000.0000.195 (19.52%)[19.27% 19.76%]0.115 (11.47%)0.112
M≥6.60.1950.0002.0000.0000.0000.160 (15.99%)[15.76% 16.22%]0.102 (10.17%)0.089
M≥6.70.1510.0001.0000.0000.0000.128 (12.76%)[12.56% 12.97%]0.086 (8.59%)0.070
M≥6.80.1140.0001.0000.0000.0000.101 (10.05%)[9.87% 10.24%]0.072 (7.20%)0.054
M≥6.90.0820.0001.0000.0000.0000.075 (7.46%)[7.30% 7.62%]0.056 (5.59%)0.039
M≥70.0590.0001.0000.0000.0000.055 (5.51%)[5.37% 5.65%]0.043 (4.33%)0.028
M≥7.10.0460.0001.0000.0000.0000.043 (4.35%)[4.22% 4.47%]0.037 (3.66%)0.021
M≥7.20.0330.0001.0000.0000.0000.032 (3.23%)[3.12% 3.34%]0.028 (2.82%)0.015
M≥7.30.0230.0000.0000.0000.0000.023 (2.26%)[2.17% 2.35%]0.021 (2.06%)9.96E-3
M≥7.40.0200.0000.0000.0000.0000.019 (1.93%)[1.85% 2.02%]0.019 (1.85%)8.51E-3
M≥7.50.0150.0000.0000.0000.0000.015 (1.46%)[1.39% 1.54%]0.014 (1.44%)6.25E-3
M≥7.67.68E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.55E-3 (0.76%)[0.70% 0.81%]7.46E-3 (0.75%)3.21E-3
M≥7.72.54E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.52E-3 (0.25%)[0.22% 0.29%]2.48E-3 (0.25%)9.30E-4
M≥7.81.55E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.54E-3 (0.15%)[0.13% 0.18%]1.52E-3 (0.15%)6.20E-4
M≥7.97.80E-40.0000.0000.0000.0007.80E-4 (0.08%)[0.06% 0.10%]7.80E-4 (0.08%)3.50E-4
M≥82.30E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.30E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]2.30E-4 (0.02%)9.00E-5
M≥8.13.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0003.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]3.00E-5 (0.00%)2.00E-5
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 yr Probability1 yr Prob 95% Conf1 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.54004.9222939.0008111.0003561.0003233.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.216 (21.62%)2076.278
M≥2.63181.1112329.0006434.0002829.0002575.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.216 (21.62%)1649.143
M≥2.72526.7361845.0005120.0002248.0002120.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.216 (21.62%)1309.965
M≥2.82007.0501460.0004075.0001786.0001632.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.216 (21.62%)1040.492
M≥2.91594.2021155.0003234.0001419.0001322.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.216 (21.62%)826.455
M≥31266.191914.0002572.0001128.0001038.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.216 (21.62%)656.335
M≥3.11005.678721.0002043.000897.000823.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.216 (21.62%)521.275
M≥3.2798.830569.0001625.000713.000661.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.216 (21.62%)414.017
M≥3.3634.417448.0001295.000566.000529.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.216 (21.62%)328.798
M≥3.4503.811353.0001031.000450.000428.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.216 (21.62%)261.112
M≥3.5400.154277.000819.000358.000337.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.216 (21.62%)207.400
M≥3.6317.807217.000652.000285.000268.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.216 (21.62%)164.706
M≥3.7252.358170.000519.000226.000211.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.216 (21.62%)130.785
M≥3.8200.403132.000413.000180.000165.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.216 (21.62%)103.837
M≥3.9159.129103.000330.000143.000133.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.216 (21.62%)82.445
M≥4126.32880.000263.000114.000105.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.216 (21.62%)65.459
M≥4.1100.29161.000209.00090.00083.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.216 (21.62%)51.968
M≥4.279.59547.000167.00072.00067.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.216 (21.62%)41.241
M≥4.363.15636.000133.00057.00053.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.216 (21.62%)32.722
M≥4.450.09227.000107.00045.00041.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.216 (21.62%)25.962
M≥4.539.73220.00085.00036.00033.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.216 (21.62%)20.595
M≥4.631.48915.00069.00028.00026.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.216 (21.62%)16.327
M≥4.724.92911.00055.00023.00020.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.216 (21.62%)12.918
M≥4.819.7348.00045.00018.00016.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.216 (21.62%)10.227
M≥4.915.5986.00036.00014.00012.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.99% 100.00%]0.216 (21.62%)8.083
M≥512.3174.00029.00011.00010.0001.000 (99.98%)[99.97% 99.99%]0.216 (21.62%)6.382
M≥5.19.7073.00024.0009.0008.0000.999 (99.88%)[99.86% 99.90%]0.216 (21.62%)5.029
M≥5.27.6352.00019.0007.0006.0000.996 (99.58%)[99.54% 99.62%]0.216 (21.62%)3.953
M≥5.35.9931.00016.0005.0004.0000.988 (98.75%)[98.68% 98.82%]0.216 (21.62%)3.101
M≥5.44.6910.00013.0004.0003.0000.971 (97.05%)[96.95% 97.16%]0.216 (21.62%)2.428
M≥5.53.6570.00011.0003.0002.0000.939 (93.86%)[93.71% 94.01%]0.216 (21.62%)1.889
M≥5.62.8330.0009.0002.0002.0000.888 (88.82%)[88.62% 89.02%]0.216 (21.62%)1.461
M≥5.72.1760.0007.0002.0001.0000.820 (82.02%)[81.78% 82.26%]0.216 (21.62%)1.121
M≥5.81.6580.0006.0001.0001.0000.736 (73.59%)[73.32% 73.87%]0.216 (21.61%)0.852
M≥5.91.2510.0005.0001.0000.0000.641 (64.07%)[63.77% 64.37%]0.216 (21.61%)0.639
M≥60.9530.0004.0001.0000.0000.545 (54.51%)[54.20% 54.81%]0.216 (21.59%)0.481
M≥6.10.6790.0003.0000.0000.0000.437 (43.66%)[43.35% 43.96%]0.175 (17.49%)0.347
M≥6.20.4640.0003.0000.0000.0000.332 (33.19%)[32.90% 33.48%]0.147 (14.74%)0.238
M≥6.30.3400.0002.0000.0000.0000.259 (25.91%)[25.64% 26.18%]0.121 (12.07%)0.176
M≥6.40.2550.0002.0000.0000.0000.202 (20.22%)[19.97% 20.47%]0.107 (10.66%)0.131
M≥6.50.1910.0002.0000.0000.0000.156 (15.65%)[15.42% 15.88%]0.090 (9.05%)0.098
M≥6.60.1490.0001.0000.0000.0000.127 (12.74%)[12.54% 12.95%]0.080 (8.03%)0.079
M≥6.70.1160.0001.0000.0000.0000.101 (10.13%)[9.94% 10.32%]0.068 (6.78%)0.061
M≥6.80.0880.0001.0000.0000.0000.080 (7.96%)[7.79% 8.13%]0.057 (5.68%)0.047
M≥6.90.0630.0001.0000.0000.0000.059 (5.90%)[5.75% 6.04%]0.044 (4.40%)0.035
M≥70.0460.0001.0000.0000.0000.043 (4.32%)[4.19% 4.45%]0.034 (3.38%)0.024
M≥7.10.0350.0001.0000.0000.0000.034 (3.41%)[3.30% 3.52%]0.029 (2.86%)0.019
M≥7.20.0260.0001.0000.0000.0000.025 (2.52%)[2.42% 2.62%]0.022 (2.20%)0.013
M≥7.30.0180.0000.0000.0000.0000.018 (1.77%)[1.69% 1.85%]0.016 (1.61%)8.91E-3
M≥7.40.0160.0000.0000.0000.0000.015 (1.52%)[1.45% 1.60%]0.015 (1.46%)7.61E-3
M≥7.50.0120.0000.0000.0000.0000.011 (1.14%)[1.08% 1.21%]0.011 (1.12%)5.68E-3
M≥7.66.03E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.96E-3 (0.60%)[0.55% 0.65%]5.90E-3 (0.59%)2.96E-3
M≥7.71.91E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.89E-3 (0.19%)[0.16% 0.22%]1.86E-3 (0.19%)8.70E-4
M≥7.81.19E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.18E-3 (0.12%)[0.10% 0.14%]1.17E-3 (0.12%)5.80E-4
M≥7.96.10E-40.0000.0000.0000.0006.10E-4 (0.06%)[0.05% 0.08%]6.10E-4 (0.06%)3.30E-4
M≥81.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)8.00E-5
M≥8.12.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)2.00E-5
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Month Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 mo Probability1 mo Prob 95% Conf1 mo Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.52794.0602180.0005072.0002549.0002373.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.156 (15.60%)1685.042
M≥2.62219.2781726.0004027.0002025.0001912.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.156 (15.60%)1338.405
M≥2.71762.8241366.0003199.0001610.0001495.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.156 (15.60%)1063.148
M≥2.81400.2371080.0002543.0001279.0001219.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.156 (15.60%)844.459
M≥2.91112.218853.0002022.0001017.000939.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.156 (15.60%)670.763
M≥3883.362674.0001606.000808.000758.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.156 (15.60%)532.697
M≥3.1701.647531.0001277.000642.000605.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.156 (15.60%)423.101
M≥3.2557.351418.0001015.000511.000494.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.156 (15.60%)336.053
M≥3.3442.634328.000805.000406.000385.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.156 (15.60%)266.884
M≥3.4351.504258.000640.000323.000303.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.156 (15.60%)211.937
M≥3.5279.175202.000510.000257.000243.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.156 (15.60%)168.331
M≥3.6221.734158.000406.000204.000196.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.156 (15.60%)133.691
M≥3.7176.074123.000323.000162.000155.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.156 (15.60%)106.166
M≥3.8139.82395.000258.000129.000123.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.156 (15.60%)84.300
M≥3.9111.02374.000205.000103.00096.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.156 (15.60%)66.928
M≥488.14157.000163.00081.00076.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.156 (15.60%)53.132
M≥4.169.96643.000131.00065.00063.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.156 (15.60%)42.175
M≥4.255.53233.000105.00051.00048.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.156 (15.60%)33.472
M≥4.344.05425.00084.00041.00039.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.156 (15.60%)26.557
M≥4.434.94519.00067.00032.00031.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.156 (15.60%)21.074
M≥4.527.71914.00054.00026.00023.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.156 (15.60%)16.717
M≥4.621.97410.00044.00020.00019.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.156 (15.60%)13.255
M≥4.717.3967.00036.00016.00014.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.156 (15.60%)10.489
M≥4.813.7685.00029.00013.00011.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.156 (15.60%)8.302
M≥4.910.8804.00024.00010.0009.0001.000 (99.98%)[99.97% 99.99%]0.156 (15.60%)6.562
M≥58.5902.00020.0008.0007.0000.999 (99.87%)[99.85% 99.89%]0.156 (15.60%)5.182
M≥5.16.7671.00016.0006.0005.0000.995 (99.46%)[99.42% 99.51%]0.156 (15.60%)4.082
M≥5.25.3241.00013.0005.0004.0000.984 (98.45%)[98.37% 98.52%]0.156 (15.60%)3.209
M≥5.34.1780.00011.0004.0003.0000.965 (96.45%)[96.33% 96.56%]0.156 (15.60%)2.517
M≥5.43.2690.0009.0003.0002.0000.929 (92.91%)[92.74% 93.06%]0.156 (15.60%)1.970
M≥5.52.5460.0008.0002.0002.0000.875 (87.53%)[87.32% 87.73%]0.156 (15.60%)1.533
M≥5.61.9730.0006.0002.0001.0000.805 (80.48%)[80.24% 80.73%]0.156 (15.60%)1.186
M≥5.71.5160.0005.0001.0001.0000.720 (71.99%)[71.71% 72.27%]0.156 (15.60%)0.910
M≥5.81.1540.0004.0001.0000.0000.626 (62.57%)[62.27% 62.87%]0.156 (15.60%)0.692
M≥5.90.8680.0004.0001.0000.0000.528 (52.84%)[52.53% 53.15%]0.156 (15.59%)0.519
M≥60.6600.0003.0000.0000.0000.437 (43.70%)[43.40% 44.01%]0.156 (15.58%)0.391
M≥6.10.4710.0003.0000.0000.0000.341 (34.09%)[33.79% 34.38%]0.127 (12.68%)0.281
M≥6.20.3210.0002.0000.0000.0000.251 (25.11%)[24.84% 25.38%]0.106 (10.59%)0.192
M≥6.30.2350.0002.0000.0000.0000.193 (19.28%)[19.04% 19.53%]0.086 (8.64%)0.142
M≥6.40.1760.0001.0000.0000.0000.148 (14.82%)[14.60% 15.04%]0.076 (7.64%)0.106
M≥6.50.1310.0001.0000.0000.0000.114 (11.38%)[11.19% 11.58%]0.065 (6.52%)0.079
M≥6.60.1030.0001.0000.0000.0000.092 (9.24%)[9.06% 9.42%]0.058 (5.81%)0.064
M≥6.70.0810.0001.0000.0000.0000.073 (7.32%)[7.16% 7.48%]0.049 (4.90%)0.050
M≥6.80.0610.0001.0000.0000.0000.057 (5.71%)[5.57% 5.86%]0.041 (4.09%)0.038
M≥6.90.0440.0001.0000.0000.0000.042 (4.22%)[4.09% 4.34%]0.032 (3.16%)0.028
M≥70.0320.0001.0000.0000.0000.031 (3.06%)[2.96% 3.17%]0.024 (2.42%)0.020
M≥7.10.0250.0000.0000.0000.0000.024 (2.42%)[2.33% 2.52%]0.020 (2.03%)0.015
M≥7.20.0180.0000.0000.0000.0000.018 (1.77%)[1.69% 1.85%]0.015 (1.54%)0.011
M≥7.30.0120.0000.0000.0000.0000.012 (1.22%)[1.15% 1.29%]0.011 (1.12%)7.34E-3
M≥7.40.0110.0000.0000.0000.0000.011 (1.06%)[1.00% 1.13%]0.010 (1.02%)6.33E-3
M≥7.58.15E-30.0000.0000.0000.0008.05E-3 (0.80%)[0.75% 0.86%]7.92E-3 (0.79%)4.75E-3
M≥7.64.19E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.16E-3 (0.42%)[0.38% 0.46%]4.11E-3 (0.41%)2.44E-3
M≥7.71.28E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.26E-3 (0.13%)[0.11% 0.15%]1.23E-3 (0.12%)6.80E-4
M≥7.87.90E-40.0000.0000.0000.0007.80E-4 (0.08%)[0.06% 0.10%]7.70E-4 (0.08%)4.50E-4
M≥7.94.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.20E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]4.20E-4 (0.04%)2.80E-4
M≥81.10E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.10E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.10E-4 (0.01%)6.00E-5
M≥8.11.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)1.00E-5
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Week Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 wk Probability1 wk Prob 95% Conf1 wk Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.52164.0541748.0003645.0002002.0001959.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.123 (12.28%)1428.062
M≥2.61718.9421383.0002900.0001591.0001535.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.123 (12.28%)1134.312
M≥2.71365.4021093.0002302.0001265.0001193.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.123 (12.28%)901.033
M≥2.81084.573864.0001833.0001005.000958.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.123 (12.28%)715.713
M≥2.9861.475682.0001455.000799.000757.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.123 (12.28%)568.483
M≥3684.222537.0001157.000635.000606.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.123 (12.28%)451.479
M≥3.1543.478423.000920.000505.000490.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.123 (12.28%)358.603
M≥3.2431.709332.000731.000402.000387.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.123 (12.28%)284.819
M≥3.3342.865261.000581.000319.000304.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.123 (12.28%)226.212
M≥3.4272.268204.000462.000254.000248.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.123 (12.28%)179.636
M≥3.5216.236159.000369.000202.000191.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.123 (12.28%)142.677
M≥3.6171.756124.000293.000160.000153.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.123 (12.28%)113.322
M≥3.7136.38797.000233.000128.000121.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.123 (12.28%)89.991
M≥3.8108.30375.000187.000101.00097.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.123 (12.28%)71.457
M≥3.985.99058.000149.00081.00078.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.123 (12.28%)56.732
M≥468.26244.000119.00064.00061.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.123 (12.28%)45.032
M≥4.154.19234.00095.00051.00048.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.123 (12.28%)35.751
M≥4.243.01325.00076.00040.00038.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.123 (12.28%)28.373
M≥4.334.12219.00062.00032.00031.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.123 (12.28%)22.510
M≥4.427.06814.00050.00025.00024.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.123 (12.28%)17.862
M≥4.521.47110.00040.00020.00019.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.123 (12.28%)14.168
M≥4.617.0178.00033.00016.00015.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.123 (12.28%)11.230
M≥4.713.4685.00027.00013.00012.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.99% 100.00%]0.123 (12.28%)8.885
M≥4.810.6604.00022.00010.0009.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.98% 99.99%]0.123 (12.28%)7.035
M≥4.98.4222.00018.0008.0007.0000.999 (99.91%)[99.89% 99.93%]0.123 (12.28%)5.562
M≥56.6501.00015.0006.0005.0000.996 (99.58%)[99.53% 99.61%]0.123 (12.28%)4.392
M≥5.15.2391.00012.0005.0004.0000.986 (98.64%)[98.56% 98.71%]0.123 (12.28%)3.460
M≥5.24.1180.00010.0004.0003.0000.967 (96.68%)[96.56% 96.79%]0.123 (12.28%)2.720
M≥5.33.2310.0009.0003.0002.0000.933 (93.34%)[93.18% 93.49%]0.123 (12.28%)2.132
M≥5.42.5270.0007.0002.0002.0000.882 (88.21%)[88.01% 88.41%]0.123 (12.28%)1.668
M≥5.51.9670.0006.0002.0001.0000.814 (81.37%)[81.13% 81.61%]0.123 (12.28%)1.298
M≥5.61.5230.0005.0001.0001.0000.732 (73.17%)[72.90% 73.45%]0.123 (12.28%)1.004
M≥5.71.1690.0004.0001.0000.0000.640 (63.97%)[63.67% 64.27%]0.123 (12.28%)0.770
M≥5.80.8900.0004.0001.0000.0000.544 (54.41%)[54.10% 54.72%]0.123 (12.28%)0.584
M≥5.90.6690.0003.0000.0000.0000.451 (45.05%)[44.75% 45.36%]0.123 (12.28%)0.438
M≥60.5080.0003.0000.0000.0000.366 (36.57%)[36.27% 36.87%]0.123 (12.27%)0.331
M≥6.10.3630.0002.0000.0000.0000.281 (28.07%)[27.79% 28.35%]0.100 (10.03%)0.238
M≥6.20.2460.0002.0000.0000.0000.203 (20.30%)[20.05% 20.55%]0.084 (8.36%)0.163
M≥6.30.1820.0001.0000.0000.0000.155 (15.53%)[15.31% 15.76%]0.069 (6.85%)0.121
M≥6.40.1360.0001.0000.0000.0000.119 (11.88%)[11.69% 12.09%]0.061 (6.07%)0.090
M≥6.50.1020.0001.0000.0000.0000.091 (9.08%)[8.90% 9.26%]0.052 (5.20%)0.068
M≥6.60.0800.0001.0000.0000.0000.073 (7.34%)[7.18% 7.51%]0.046 (4.63%)0.054
M≥6.70.0630.0001.0000.0000.0000.058 (5.81%)[5.67% 5.96%]0.039 (3.92%)0.042
M≥6.80.0480.0001.0000.0000.0000.045 (4.50%)[4.37% 4.63%]0.033 (3.25%)0.032
M≥6.90.0350.0001.0000.0000.0000.033 (3.31%)[3.20% 3.43%]0.025 (2.52%)0.024
M≥70.0250.0000.0000.0000.0000.024 (2.42%)[2.33% 2.52%]0.019 (1.93%)0.017
M≥7.10.0200.0000.0000.0000.0000.019 (1.92%)[1.84% 2.01%]0.016 (1.63%)0.013
M≥7.20.0140.0000.0000.0000.0000.014 (1.39%)[1.32% 1.47%]0.012 (1.23%)9.29E-3
M≥7.39.76E-30.0000.0000.0000.0009.63E-3 (0.96%)[0.90% 1.03%]8.88E-3 (0.89%)6.31E-3
M≥7.48.54E-30.0000.0000.0000.0008.43E-3 (0.84%)[0.79% 0.90%]8.13E-3 (0.81%)5.49E-3
M≥7.56.40E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.33E-3 (0.63%)[0.59% 0.68%]6.25E-3 (0.62%)4.12E-3
M≥7.63.30E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.29E-3 (0.33%)[0.29% 0.37%]3.25E-3 (0.33%)2.05E-3
M≥7.79.50E-40.0000.0000.0000.0009.50E-4 (0.10%)[0.08% 0.12%]9.30E-4 (0.09%)5.50E-4
M≥7.85.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.60E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.07%]5.50E-4 (0.06%)3.30E-4
M≥7.93.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)2.00E-4
M≥89.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0009.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]9.00E-5 (0.01%)4.00E-5
M≥8.11.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)1.00E-5
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Day Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 d Probability1 d Prob 95% Conf1 d Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.51425.5881201.0002140.0001348.0001312.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.083 (8.33%)1063.773
M≥2.61132.280949.0001700.0001071.0001043.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.083 (8.33%)844.897
M≥2.7899.388749.0001351.000851.000829.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.083 (8.33%)671.135
M≥2.8714.381590.0001074.000677.000663.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.083 (8.33%)533.094
M≥2.9567.464465.000855.000538.000526.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.083 (8.33%)423.439
M≥3450.707365.000681.000428.000411.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.083 (8.33%)336.289
M≥3.1358.015287.000541.000340.000327.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.083 (8.33%)267.118
M≥3.2284.368225.000432.000271.000261.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.083 (8.33%)212.148
M≥3.3225.835176.000343.000215.000209.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.083 (8.33%)168.483
M≥3.4179.326137.000272.000171.000168.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.083 (8.33%)133.783
M≥3.5142.432107.000218.000136.000133.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.083 (8.33%)106.267
M≥3.6113.14582.000174.000108.000104.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.083 (8.33%)84.415
M≥3.789.84164.000139.00086.00084.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.083 (8.33%)67.031
M≥3.871.32749.000111.00068.00066.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.083 (8.33%)53.218
M≥3.956.63037.00090.00054.00052.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.083 (8.33%)42.250
M≥444.96028.00072.00043.00042.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.083 (8.33%)33.536
M≥4.135.69521.00058.00034.00033.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.083 (8.33%)26.622
M≥4.228.33116.00047.00027.00026.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.083 (8.33%)21.130
M≥4.322.48112.00038.00021.00021.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.083 (8.33%)16.766
M≥4.417.8359.00031.00017.00016.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.083 (8.33%)13.305
M≥4.514.1396.00026.00013.00013.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.083 (8.33%)10.550
M≥4.611.2084.00021.00011.00010.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.083 (8.33%)8.363
M≥4.78.8713.00018.0008.0008.0000.999 (99.94%)[99.93% 99.96%]0.083 (8.33%)6.615
M≥4.87.0232.00015.0007.0006.0000.998 (99.77%)[99.74% 99.80%]0.083 (8.33%)5.238
M≥4.95.5501.00012.0005.0005.0000.992 (99.21%)[99.16% 99.27%]0.083 (8.33%)4.140
M≥54.3811.00010.0004.0003.0000.978 (97.79%)[97.70% 97.88%]0.083 (8.33%)3.269
M≥5.13.4500.0009.0003.0003.0000.951 (95.12%)[94.98% 95.25%]0.083 (8.33%)2.573
M≥5.22.7080.0007.0002.0002.0000.908 (90.81%)[90.63% 90.99%]0.083 (8.33%)2.021
M≥5.32.1270.0006.0002.0001.0000.849 (84.90%)[84.67% 85.12%]0.083 (8.33%)1.585
M≥5.41.6620.0005.0001.0001.0000.775 (77.46%)[77.20% 77.72%]0.083 (8.33%)1.240
M≥5.51.2950.0004.0001.0001.0000.689 (68.89%)[68.60% 69.17%]0.083 (8.33%)0.966
M≥5.61.0020.0004.0001.0000.0000.598 (59.77%)[59.47% 60.08%]0.083 (8.33%)0.748
M≥5.70.7700.0003.0001.0000.0000.506 (50.56%)[50.24% 50.87%]0.083 (8.33%)0.573
M≥5.80.5850.0003.0000.0000.0000.417 (41.70%)[41.39% 42.01%]0.083 (8.33%)0.435
M≥5.90.4390.0002.0000.0000.0000.336 (33.55%)[33.26% 33.85%]0.083 (8.32%)0.326
M≥60.3330.0002.0000.0000.0000.266 (26.62%)[26.35% 26.90%]0.083 (8.32%)0.245
M≥6.10.2380.0002.0000.0000.0000.201 (20.06%)[19.81% 20.31%]0.069 (6.87%)0.177
M≥6.20.1610.0001.0000.0000.0000.142 (14.16%)[13.94% 14.38%]0.057 (5.67%)0.120
M≥6.30.1180.0001.0000.0000.0000.107 (10.67%)[10.48% 10.86%]0.046 (4.64%)0.089
M≥6.40.0890.0001.0000.0000.0000.081 (8.13%)[7.96% 8.30%]0.041 (4.14%)0.066
M≥6.50.0670.0001.0000.0000.0000.062 (6.16%)[6.01% 6.31%]0.036 (3.56%)0.050
M≥6.60.0530.0001.0000.0000.0000.050 (4.99%)[4.86% 5.13%]0.032 (3.18%)0.040
M≥6.70.0410.0001.0000.0000.0000.039 (3.93%)[3.81% 4.05%]0.027 (2.68%)0.031
M≥6.80.0310.0001.0000.0000.0000.030 (3.02%)[2.91% 3.13%]0.022 (2.22%)0.024
M≥6.90.0230.0000.0000.0000.0000.022 (2.20%)[2.11% 2.29%]0.017 (1.70%)0.018
M≥70.0170.0000.0000.0000.0000.016 (1.62%)[1.54% 1.70%]0.013 (1.30%)0.013
M≥7.10.0130.0000.0000.0000.0000.013 (1.27%)[1.21% 1.35%]0.011 (1.09%)9.82E-3
M≥7.29.14E-30.0000.0000.0000.0009.03E-3 (0.90%)[0.85% 0.96%]7.93E-3 (0.79%)6.80E-3
M≥7.36.15E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.10E-3 (0.61%)[0.56% 0.66%]5.65E-3 (0.56%)4.57E-3
M≥7.45.39E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.34E-3 (0.53%)[0.49% 0.58%]5.17E-3 (0.52%)4.01E-3
M≥7.54.04E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.01E-3 (0.40%)[0.36% 0.44%]3.96E-3 (0.40%)3.07E-3
M≥7.62.12E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.12E-3 (0.21%)[0.18% 0.24%]2.09E-3 (0.21%)1.52E-3
M≥7.76.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0006.60E-4 (0.07%)[0.05% 0.08%]6.40E-4 (0.06%)4.20E-4
M≥7.84.10E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.10E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]4.00E-4 (0.04%)2.60E-4
M≥7.92.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.20E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.20E-4 (0.02%)1.60E-4
M≥84.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)2.00E-5
M≥8.11.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)1.00E-5
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Hour Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 hr Probability1 hr Prob 95% Conf1 hr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5504.879444.000602.000496.000492.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.030 (3.04%)457.773
M≥2.6400.992349.000481.000394.000392.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.030 (3.04%)363.577
M≥2.7318.500274.000384.000313.000312.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.030 (3.04%)288.787
M≥2.8252.981214.000307.000249.000247.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.030 (3.04%)229.380
M≥2.9200.970167.000246.000198.000196.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.030 (3.04%)182.210
M≥3159.590130.000198.000157.000157.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.030 (3.04%)144.690
M≥3.1126.772101.000160.000125.000122.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.030 (3.04%)114.942
M≥3.2100.70278.000129.00099.00098.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.030 (3.04%)91.294
M≥3.379.96860.000104.00079.00079.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.030 (3.04%)72.496
M≥3.463.49646.00084.00062.00060.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.030 (3.04%)57.564
M≥3.550.45835.00069.00050.00048.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.030 (3.04%)45.745
M≥3.640.08227.00056.00039.00039.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.030 (3.04%)36.338
M≥3.731.82620.00046.00031.00030.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.030 (3.04%)28.849
M≥3.825.26915.00038.00025.00024.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.030 (3.04%)22.904
M≥3.920.06411.00031.00020.00019.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.030 (3.04%)18.187
M≥415.9268.00026.00016.00015.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.030 (3.04%)14.436
M≥4.112.6416.00021.00012.00012.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.99% 100.00%]0.030 (3.04%)11.459
M≥4.210.0314.00018.00010.0009.0001.000 (99.98%)[99.97% 99.99%]0.030 (3.04%)9.094
M≥4.37.9613.00015.0008.0007.0000.999 (99.94%)[99.92% 99.95%]0.030 (3.04%)7.217
M≥4.46.3162.00012.0006.0006.0000.997 (99.73%)[99.70% 99.77%]0.030 (3.04%)5.726
M≥4.55.0101.00010.0005.0004.0000.991 (99.10%)[99.04% 99.16%]0.030 (3.04%)4.542
M≥4.63.9721.0009.0004.0003.0000.976 (97.63%)[97.53% 97.72%]0.030 (3.04%)3.600
M≥4.73.1420.0007.0003.0003.0000.949 (94.91%)[94.77% 95.05%]0.030 (3.04%)2.847
M≥4.82.4870.0006.0002.0002.0000.906 (90.59%)[90.41% 90.77%]0.030 (3.04%)2.253
M≥4.91.9660.0005.0002.0001.0000.846 (84.57%)[84.34% 84.79%]0.030 (3.04%)1.781
M≥51.5550.0005.0001.0001.0000.773 (77.34%)[77.08% 77.60%]0.030 (3.04%)1.410
M≥5.11.2240.0004.0001.0001.0000.690 (69.03%)[68.75% 69.32%]0.030 (3.04%)1.109
M≥5.20.9590.0003.0001.0000.0000.602 (60.17%)[59.87% 60.48%]0.030 (3.04%)0.870
M≥5.30.7530.0003.0001.0000.0000.515 (51.50%)[51.19% 51.81%]0.030 (3.04%)0.682
M≥5.40.5870.0003.0000.0000.0000.432 (43.24%)[42.93% 43.54%]0.030 (3.04%)0.532
M≥5.50.4570.0002.0000.0000.0000.357 (35.68%)[35.39% 35.98%]0.030 (3.04%)0.414
M≥5.60.3530.0002.0000.0000.0000.290 (28.96%)[28.68% 29.24%]0.030 (3.04%)0.320
M≥5.70.2710.0002.0000.0000.0000.231 (23.09%)[22.83% 23.36%]0.030 (3.04%)0.245
M≥5.80.2060.0001.0000.0000.0000.182 (18.17%)[17.93% 18.41%]0.030 (3.04%)0.186
M≥5.90.1540.0001.0000.0000.0000.140 (13.96%)[13.75% 14.18%]0.030 (3.04%)0.139
M≥60.1160.0001.0000.0000.0000.108 (10.75%)[10.56% 10.95%]0.030 (3.04%)0.105
M≥6.10.0840.0001.0000.0000.0000.079 (7.87%)[7.70% 8.04%]0.025 (2.55%)0.076
M≥6.20.0570.0001.0000.0000.0000.054 (5.39%)[5.25% 5.54%]0.021 (2.06%)0.051
M≥6.30.0420.0001.0000.0000.0000.040 (4.01%)[3.89% 4.13%]0.017 (1.69%)0.038
M≥6.40.0310.0001.0000.0000.0000.030 (3.02%)[2.92% 3.13%]0.015 (1.50%)0.028
M≥6.50.0240.0000.0000.0000.0000.023 (2.29%)[2.20% 2.38%]0.013 (1.31%)0.021
M≥6.60.0190.0000.0000.0000.0000.018 (1.85%)[1.76% 1.93%]0.012 (1.18%)0.017
M≥6.70.0150.0000.0000.0000.0000.015 (1.47%)[1.39% 1.54%]0.010 (1.00%)0.013
M≥6.80.0110.0000.0000.0000.0000.011 (1.12%)[1.05% 1.18%]8.32E-3 (0.83%)0.010
M≥6.98.11E-30.0000.0000.0000.0008.05E-3 (0.80%)[0.75% 0.86%]6.27E-3 (0.63%)7.37E-3
M≥75.91E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.86E-3 (0.59%)[0.54% 0.64%]4.68E-3 (0.47%)5.44E-3
M≥7.14.68E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.67E-3 (0.47%)[0.43% 0.51%]4.06E-3 (0.41%)4.31E-3
M≥7.23.29E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.29E-3 (0.33%)[0.29% 0.37%]2.88E-3 (0.29%)3.01E-3
M≥7.32.11E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.11E-3 (0.21%)[0.18% 0.24%]1.99E-3 (0.20%)1.89E-3
M≥7.41.89E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.89E-3 (0.19%)[0.16% 0.22%]1.83E-3 (0.18%)1.71E-3
M≥7.51.53E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.53E-3 (0.15%)[0.13% 0.18%]1.50E-3 (0.15%)1.37E-3
M≥7.67.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0007.60E-4 (0.08%)[0.06% 0.10%]7.50E-4 (0.07%)6.40E-4
M≥7.72.40E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.02% 0.04%]2.30E-4 (0.02%)1.70E-4
M≥7.81.10E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.10E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.10E-4 (0.01%)7.00E-5
M≥7.98.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0008.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)6.00E-5
M≥81.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Hazard Change Over Time

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These plots show how the probability of ruptures of various magnitudes within 100km of any scenario rupture changes over time

M≥5.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard Change

Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour0.771 [0.769 - 0.774]0.7717.05E-510936.87.00E-5
1 Day0.977 [0.976 - 0.978]0.9771.69E-3577.841.68E-3
1 Week0.996 [0.995 - 0.996]0.9960.01284.520.012
1 Month0.999 [0.998 - 0.999]0.9990.05020.170.049
1 Year1.000 [1.000 - 1.000]1.0000.4612.170.459
10 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000]1.0000.99810.998
30 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **1.0001 *1.000
100 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **1.0001 *1.000

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥6.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard Change

Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour0.107 [0.105 - 0.109]0.1077.71E-613855.297.22E-6
1 Day0.264 [0.261 - 0.267]0.2641.85E-41427.171.73E-4
1 Week0.363 [0.360 - 0.366]0.3621.29E-3280.541.21E-3
1 Month0.436 [0.433 - 0.440]0.4335.54E-378.835.19E-3
1 Year0.571 [0.568 - 0.574]0.5410.0658.730.061
10 Years0.808 [0.806 - 0.810]0.6220.4921.640.469
30 Years0.951 [0.950 - 0.951] **0.8691.09 *0.850
100 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **0.9991 *0.998

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥7.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard Change

Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour5.85E-3 [5.39E-3 - 6.35E-3]5.85E-37.11E-78228.026.43E-7
1 Day0.016 [0.015 - 0.017]0.0161.71E-5935.031.54E-5
1 Week0.024 [0.023 - 0.025]0.0241.19E-4200.721.08E-4
1 Month0.031 [0.030 - 0.032]0.0305.12E-459.844.63E-4
1 Year0.048 [0.047 - 0.050]0.0426.21E-37.785.62E-3
10 Years0.111 [0.110 - 0.113]0.0540.0611.840.055
30 Years0.217 [0.216 - 0.219] **0.1731.26 *0.156
100 Years0.510 [0.510 - 0.511] **0.4821.06 *0.431

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥8.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard Change

Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour1.00E-5 [5.34E-7 - 6.50E-5]1.00E-51.24E-8809.661.06E-8
1 Day4.03E-5 [1.31E-5 - 1.10E-4]4.00E-52.97E-7135.782.54E-7
1 Week8.21E-5 [3.93E-5 - 1.67E-4]8.00E-52.08E-639.511.78E-6
1 Month1.09E-4 [5.97E-5 - 1.99E-4]1.00E-48.90E-612.237.63E-6
1 Year2.48E-4 [1.88E-4 - 3.50E-4]1.40E-41.08E-42.299.29E-5
10 Years1.31E-3 [1.23E-3 - 1.42E-3]2.10E-41.10E-31.199.29E-4
30 Years3.71E-3 [3.64E-3 - 3.83E-3] **3.50E-31.06 *2.78E-3
100 Years0.014 [0.014 - 0.014] **0.0141.02 *9.25E-3

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

Trigger Rupture Fault Map

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Map

Trigger Rupture Depth Map

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Map

Fault Distances To Triggers

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Section NameStrike, Dip, Rake# Hypos In PolyMax Mag w/ Hypo In Poly# Surfs In PolyMax Mag w/ Surf In PolyMin Dist To Any (km)Min Poly Dist To Any (km)Min Dist To Largest (km)Min Poly Dist To Largest (km)Min Hypo Dist To Largest (km)Min Hypo Poly Dist To Largest (km)
Airport Lake359, 50, -90867.1867.10.1420.0000.1420.0004.7770.000
Little Lake327, 90, 180163.85177.12.3210.00010.9640.00013.4840.874
Garlock (Central)69, 90, 023.2137.110.4870.00011.3720.00032.26019.784
So Sierra Nevada2, 50, -9012.7512.751.4100.0004.0513.71915.01514.621
Tank Canyon189, 50, -90008.8288.8228.8288.82225.78324.211
Scodie Lineament221, 68, 00016.72215.78128.43727.47037.41432.142
Blackwater325, 90, 1800018.75115.13318.75115.13339.59738.195

Individual Simulated Catalog Maps

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These are map plots of individual catalogs from the simulations, selected as the closest catalog to each of the given percentiles in terms of total number of events.

Durationp0.0 %-ilep25.0 %-ilep50.0 %-ilep75.0 %-ilep90.0 %-ilep95.0 %-ilep97.5 %-ilep98.0 %-ilep99.0 %-ilep99.5 %-ilep99.9 %-ilep100.0 %-ile
1 WeekMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap
1 MonthMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap
1 YearMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap
10 YearMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min Mag1 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)10 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)10 yr Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 198 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
Tank Canyon0.1350.024 (2.38%)[2.28% 2.47%]0.039 (3.89%)[3.77% 4.01%]0.053 (5.34%)[5.20% 5.48%]0.083 (8.29%)[8.12% 8.46%]0.114 (11.40%)[11.20% 11.60%]0.03483
Garlock (Central)0.079950.023 (2.35%)[2.25% 2.44%]0.035 (3.47%)[3.36% 3.59%]0.044 (4.37%)[4.25% 4.50%]0.061 (6.08%)[5.93% 6.23%]0.077 (7.68%)[7.52% 7.85%]0.03845
Little Lake0.063610.021 (2.13%)[2.05% 2.23%]0.031 (3.05%)[2.95% 3.16%]0.038 (3.79%)[3.67% 3.91%]0.050 (5.01%)[4.87% 5.14%]0.061 (6.15%)[6.00% 6.30%]0.03629
Airport Lake0.049060.019 (1.88%)[1.79% 1.96%]0.026 (2.56%)[2.46% 2.66%]0.031 (3.13%)[3.02% 3.24%]0.040 (4.03%)[3.91% 4.15%]0.049 (4.88%)[4.75% 5.02%]0.0324
Owl Lake0.030045.93E-3 (0.59%)[0.55% 0.64%]9.55E-3 (0.95%)[0.90% 1.02%]0.013 (1.27%)[1.20% 1.34%]0.019 (1.94%)[1.86% 2.03%]0.026 (2.63%)[2.53% 2.73%]0.0068
Panamint Valley0.026025.55E-3 (0.56%)[0.51% 0.60%]8.97E-3 (0.90%)[0.84% 0.96%]0.012 (1.20%)[1.14% 1.27%]0.019 (1.86%)[1.78% 1.95%]0.025 (2.52%)[2.42% 2.62%]0.00794
Garlock (East)0.019143.78E-3 (0.38%)[0.34% 0.42%]5.92E-3 (0.59%)[0.55% 0.64%]7.81E-3 (0.78%)[0.73% 0.84%]0.013 (1.26%)[1.20% 1.33%]0.017 (1.74%)[1.66% 1.82%]0.00454
Ash Hill0.012342.06E-3 (0.21%)[0.18% 0.24%]3.34E-3 (0.33%)[0.30% 0.37%]4.92E-3 (0.49%)[0.45% 0.54%]7.96E-3 (0.80%)[0.74% 0.85%]0.012 (1.17%)[1.10% 1.24%]0.00228
Blackwater0.010552.12E-3 (0.21%)[0.18% 0.24%]3.36E-3 (0.34%)[0.30% 0.37%]4.65E-3 (0.46%)[0.42% 0.51%]7.10E-3 (0.71%)[0.66% 0.76%]9.98E-3 (1.00%)[0.94% 1.06%]0.00263
Hunter Mountain-Saline Valley0.010192.63E-3 (0.26%)[0.23% 0.30%]4.17E-3 (0.42%)[0.38% 0.46%]5.37E-3 (0.54%)[0.49% 0.58%]7.64E-3 (0.76%)[0.71% 0.82%]9.91E-3 (0.99%)[0.93% 1.05%]0.00399

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 174 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
Little Lake0.039070.014 (1.35%)[1.28% 1.42%]0.019 (1.93%)[1.85% 2.02%]0.024 (2.38%)[2.28% 2.47%]0.031 (3.14%)[3.03% 3.25%]0.038 (3.83%)[3.71% 3.95%]0.02333
Airport Lake0.036160.014 (1.38%)[1.31% 1.46%]0.019 (1.89%)[1.81% 1.98%]0.023 (2.30%)[2.20% 2.39%]0.030 (2.97%)[2.87% 3.08%]0.036 (3.61%)[3.50% 3.73%]0.02388
Garlock (Central)0.035420.010 (1.01%)[0.95% 1.08%]0.015 (1.52%)[1.45% 1.60%]0.019 (1.92%)[1.83% 2.00%]0.027 (2.71%)[2.61% 2.82%]0.035 (3.47%)[3.36% 3.58%]0.0164
Panamint Valley0.023645.27E-3 (0.53%)[0.48% 0.57%]8.41E-3 (0.84%)[0.79% 0.90%]0.011 (1.12%)[1.06% 1.19%]0.017 (1.71%)[1.63% 1.79%]0.023 (2.30%)[2.20% 2.39%]0.0077
Owl Lake0.015463.83E-3 (0.38%)[0.35% 0.42%]6.01E-3 (0.60%)[0.55% 0.65%]7.72E-3 (0.77%)[0.72% 0.83%]0.011 (1.15%)[1.08% 1.22%]0.015 (1.53%)[1.46% 1.61%]0.00545
Tank Canyon0.014812.78E-3 (0.28%)[0.25% 0.31%]4.47E-3 (0.45%)[0.41% 0.49%]6.27E-3 (0.63%)[0.58% 0.68%]0.010 (1.03%)[0.97% 1.10%]0.015 (1.47%)[1.40% 1.55%]0.00395
Garlock (East)0.012272.86E-3 (0.29%)[0.25% 0.32%]4.52E-3 (0.45%)[0.41% 0.50%]5.72E-3 (0.57%)[0.53% 0.62%]8.81E-3 (0.88%)[0.82% 0.94%]0.012 (1.16%)[1.09% 1.23%]0.00409
Hunter Mountain-Saline Valley0.009872.59E-3 (0.26%)[0.23% 0.29%]4.09E-3 (0.41%)[0.37% 0.45%]5.26E-3 (0.53%)[0.48% 0.57%]7.49E-3 (0.75%)[0.70% 0.80%]9.71E-3 (0.97%)[0.91% 1.03%]0.00393
Garlock (West)0.005511.57E-3 (0.16%)[0.13% 0.18%]2.44E-3 (0.24%)[0.21% 0.28%]3.06E-3 (0.31%)[0.27% 0.34%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)[0.39% 0.48%]5.51E-3 (0.55%)[0.51% 0.60%]0.00249
So Sierra Nevada0.004248.00E-4 (0.08%)[0.06% 0.10%]1.27E-3 (0.13%)[0.11% 0.15%]1.88E-3 (0.19%)[0.16% 0.22%]2.99E-3 (0.30%)[0.27% 0.34%]4.18E-3 (0.42%)[0.38% 0.46%]9.1E-4

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 116 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
Garlock (Central)0.031429.10E-3 (0.91%)[0.85% 0.97%]0.014 (1.37%)[1.30% 1.45%]0.017 (1.71%)[1.63% 1.79%]0.024 (2.42%)[2.33% 2.52%]0.031 (3.09%)[2.99% 3.20%]0.01461
Panamint Valley0.013853.78E-3 (0.38%)[0.34% 0.42%]5.71E-3 (0.57%)[0.53% 0.62%]7.35E-3 (0.73%)[0.68% 0.79%]0.011 (1.05%)[0.99% 1.12%]0.014 (1.38%)[1.31% 1.45%]0.00571
Owl Lake0.010773.10E-3 (0.31%)[0.28% 0.35%]4.72E-3 (0.47%)[0.43% 0.52%]5.86E-3 (0.59%)[0.54% 0.64%]8.31E-3 (0.83%)[0.78% 0.89%]0.011 (1.08%)[1.01% 1.14%]0.00508
Hunter Mountain-Saline Valley0.009442.55E-3 (0.26%)[0.23% 0.29%]3.98E-3 (0.40%)[0.36% 0.44%]5.10E-3 (0.51%)[0.47% 0.56%]7.28E-3 (0.73%)[0.68% 0.78%]9.41E-3 (0.94%)[0.88% 1.00%]0.00389
Garlock (East)0.008322.34E-3 (0.23%)[0.21% 0.27%]3.66E-3 (0.37%)[0.33% 0.41%]4.51E-3 (0.45%)[0.41% 0.49%]6.59E-3 (0.66%)[0.61% 0.71%]8.28E-3 (0.83%)[0.77% 0.89%]0.0038
Little Lake0.007682.93E-3 (0.29%)[0.26% 0.33%]4.00E-3 (0.40%)[0.36% 0.44%]4.98E-3 (0.50%)[0.46% 0.54%]6.36E-3 (0.64%)[0.59% 0.69%]7.68E-3 (0.77%)[0.72% 0.82%]0.00513
Airport Lake0.007192.77E-3 (0.28%)[0.25% 0.31%]3.82E-3 (0.38%)[0.35% 0.42%]4.67E-3 (0.47%)[0.43% 0.51%]5.98E-3 (0.60%)[0.55% 0.65%]7.19E-3 (0.72%)[0.67% 0.77%]0.00482
Garlock (West)0.005371.55E-3 (0.15%)[0.13% 0.18%]2.42E-3 (0.24%)[0.21% 0.27%]3.02E-3 (0.30%)[0.27% 0.34%]4.26E-3 (0.43%)[0.39% 0.47%]5.37E-3 (0.54%)[0.49% 0.58%]0.00245
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.002436.60E-4 (0.07%)[0.05% 0.08%]9.50E-4 (0.10%)[0.08% 0.12%]1.23E-3 (0.12%)[0.10% 0.15%]1.81E-3 (0.18%)[0.16% 0.21%]2.39E-3 (0.24%)[0.21% 0.27%]9.3E-4
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.002025.50E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.07%]7.60E-4 (0.08%)[0.06% 0.10%]1.01E-3 (0.10%)[0.08% 0.12%]1.52E-3 (0.15%)[0.13% 0.18%]2.01E-3 (0.20%)[0.17% 0.23%]8.1E-4

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 66 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
Garlock (Central)0.012773.71E-3 (0.37%)[0.33% 0.41%]5.72E-3 (0.57%)[0.53% 0.62%]7.20E-3 (0.72%)[0.67% 0.77%]0.010 (1.01%)[0.95% 1.07%]0.013 (1.27%)[1.20% 1.34%]0.00582
Panamint Valley0.008932.47E-3 (0.25%)[0.22% 0.28%]3.87E-3 (0.39%)[0.35% 0.43%]4.91E-3 (0.49%)[0.45% 0.54%]6.95E-3 (0.69%)[0.64% 0.75%]8.93E-3 (0.89%)[0.84% 0.95%]0.00381
Hunter Mountain-Saline Valley0.008922.47E-3 (0.25%)[0.22% 0.28%]3.87E-3 (0.39%)[0.35% 0.43%]4.91E-3 (0.49%)[0.45% 0.54%]6.94E-3 (0.69%)[0.64% 0.75%]8.92E-3 (0.89%)[0.84% 0.95%]0.00381
Garlock (West)0.004771.37E-3 (0.14%)[0.12% 0.16%]2.13E-3 (0.21%)[0.19% 0.24%]2.69E-3 (0.27%)[0.24% 0.30%]3.79E-3 (0.38%)[0.34% 0.42%]4.77E-3 (0.48%)[0.44% 0.52%]0.00221
Garlock (East)0.002888.20E-4 (0.08%)[0.07% 0.10%]1.30E-3 (0.13%)[0.11% 0.15%]1.63E-3 (0.16%)[0.14% 0.19%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)[0.20% 0.26%]2.88E-3 (0.29%)[0.26% 0.32%]0.00136
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.002416.50E-4 (0.07%)[0.05% 0.08%]9.40E-4 (0.09%)[0.08% 0.12%]1.22E-3 (0.12%)[0.10% 0.15%]1.80E-3 (0.18%)[0.16% 0.21%]2.38E-3 (0.24%)[0.21% 0.27%]9.3E-4
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.001885.20E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]7.20E-4 (0.07%)[0.06% 0.09%]9.50E-4 (0.10%)[0.08% 0.12%]1.43E-3 (0.14%)[0.12% 0.17%]1.87E-3 (0.19%)[0.16% 0.22%]7.6E-4
Owl Lake0.001092.90E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]4.40E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]5.70E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.07%]8.20E-4 (0.08%)[0.07% 0.10%]1.09E-3 (0.11%)[0.09% 0.13%]4.4E-4
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.001012.60E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]3.80E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.05%]5.50E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.07%]7.70E-4 (0.08%)[0.06% 0.10%]1.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.08% 0.12%]4.2E-4
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)4.6E-41.40E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.60E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]3.50E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.05%]4.60E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.06%]2.0E-4

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 26 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (Mojave N)2.3E-44.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]9.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.10E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.30E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]9.0E-5
San Andreas (Mojave S)2.3E-44.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]9.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.10E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.30E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]9.0E-5
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)2.3E-44.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]9.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.10E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.30E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]9.0E-5
Garlock (Central)2.1E-44.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]2.10E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]8.0E-5
Garlock (West)2.1E-44.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]2.10E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]8.0E-5
Garlock (East)1.8E-43.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]6.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.80E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]8.0E-5
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)1.5E-43.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]6.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.10E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.50E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.03%]6.0E-5
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)1.5E-43.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]6.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.10E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.50E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.03%]6.0E-5
San Andreas (Coachella) rev1.4E-43.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]6.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]7.0E-5
San Andreas (North Branch Mill Creek)5.0E-50.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]3.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]5.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.0E-5

Fault Magnitude-Probability Distributions

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The first 5 sections (sorted by trigger rate) are plotted below. All fault MPDs are available here

1 Week1 Month1 Year10 Year
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥2.5Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 100000,
  "duration": 10.0,
  "startTimeMillis": 1562383193000,
  "includeSpontaneous": false,
  "randomSeed": 123456789,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "reuseERFs": true,
  "simulationName": "Searless Valley Sequence Finite Fault",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "/home/scec-02/kmilner/ucerf3/etas_sim/2019_07_06-SearlessValleySequenceFiniteFault-noSpont-full_td-10yr-following-M7.1",
  "triggerRuptures": [
    "omitted due to length, see original input file"
  ],
  "cacheDir": "/home/scec-02/kmilner/ucerf3/ucerf3-etas-launcher/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "/home/scec-02/kmilner/ucerf3/ucerf3-etas-launcher/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.14,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED"
}