Searles Valley M6.4 and M7.1 PointSource Results

Searles Valley M6.4 and M7.1 PointSource
Num Simulations100000
Start Time2019/07/06 03:19:52 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1562383192000
Duration10 Years
Includes Spontaneous?false
Trigger Ruptures(none)

Table Of Contents

Probabilities Summary Table

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Magnitude1 Hour Prob1 Day Prob1 Week Prob1 Month Prob1 Year Prob10 Year Prob
M≥41.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf[100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%]
M≥4.50.992 (99.17%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf[99.12% 99.23%][99.99% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%]
M≥50.766 (76.64%)0.975 (97.49%)0.995 (99.46%)0.998 (99.83%)1.000 (99.98%)1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf[76.37% 76.90%][97.39% 97.58%][99.41% 99.50%][99.81% 99.86%][99.96% 99.98%][99.99% 100.00%]
M≥5.50.345 (34.46%)0.668 (66.75%)0.793 (79.33%)0.857 (85.73%)0.924 (92.41%)0.957 (95.72%)
95% Conf[34.17% 34.76%][66.46% 67.04%][79.08% 79.58%][85.52% 85.95%][92.25% 92.58%][95.59% 95.85%]
M≥60.089 (8.94%)0.226 (22.56%)0.314 (31.44%)0.378 (37.79%)0.481 (48.07%)0.561 (56.13%)
95% Conf[8.77% 9.12%][22.30% 22.82%][31.15% 31.72%][37.49% 38.09%][47.76% 48.38%][55.83% 56.44%]
M≥6.50.014 (1.44%)0.041 (4.13%)0.063 (6.33%)0.081 (8.11%)0.115 (11.54%)0.147 (14.70%)
95% Conf[1.36% 1.51%][4.01% 4.26%][6.18% 6.48%][7.94% 8.28%][11.35% 11.74%][14.48% 14.92%]
M≥72.81E-3 (0.28%)8.09E-3 (0.81%)0.013 (1.29%)0.017 (1.71%)0.025 (2.53%)0.034 (3.39%)
95% Conf[0.25% 0.32%][0.75% 0.87%][1.22% 1.36%][1.63% 1.80%][2.43% 2.63%][3.28% 3.50%]
M≥7.12.03E-3 (0.20%)6.10E-3 (0.61%)9.95E-3 (1.00%)0.013 (1.32%)0.020 (1.97%)0.026 (2.64%)
95% Conf[0.18% 0.23%][0.56% 0.66%][0.93% 1.06%][1.25% 1.39%][1.88% 2.05%][2.54% 2.74%]
M≥7.55.50E-4 (0.06%)1.67E-3 (0.17%)2.77E-3 (0.28%)3.67E-3 (0.37%)5.85E-3 (0.58%)8.48E-3 (0.85%)
95% Conf[0.04% 0.07%][0.14% 0.19%][0.25% 0.31%][0.33% 0.41%][0.54% 0.63%][0.79% 0.91%]
M≥82.00E-5 (0.00%)3.00E-5 (0.00%)5.00E-5 (0.01%)8.00E-5 (0.01%)1.30E-4 (0.01%)1.60E-4 (0.02%)
95% Conf[0.00% 0.01%][0.00% 0.01%][0.00% 0.01%][0.00% 0.02%][0.01% 0.02%][0.01% 0.03%]

Magnitude Number Distribution

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10 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode10 yr Probability10 yr Prob 95% Conf10 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.54797.7023484.0009523.0004302.0003911.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.172 (17.18%)2295.240
M≥2.63810.9662762.0007560.0003419.0003208.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.172 (17.18%)1823.133
M≥2.73027.0282189.0006006.0002716.0002495.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.172 (17.18%)1448.078
M≥2.82404.3871734.0004775.0002158.0002026.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.172 (17.18%)1150.185
M≥2.91909.7481372.0003795.0001715.0001605.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.172 (17.18%)913.522
M≥31516.8801086.0003016.0001363.0001254.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.172 (17.18%)725.553
M≥3.11204.765858.0002397.0001083.0001020.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.172 (17.18%)576.254
M≥3.2956.814678.0001909.000860.000773.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.172 (17.18%)457.636
M≥3.3759.945535.0001513.000684.000632.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.172 (17.18%)363.447
M≥3.4603.482421.0001203.000543.000513.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.172 (17.18%)288.593
M≥3.5479.242331.000958.000432.000396.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.172 (17.18%)229.174
M≥3.6380.530260.000762.000343.000322.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.172 (17.18%)181.939
M≥3.7302.101203.000606.000273.000254.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.172 (17.18%)144.433
M≥3.8239.851159.000482.000217.000195.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.172 (17.18%)114.650
M≥3.9190.423124.000384.000172.000161.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.172 (17.18%)90.997
M≥4151.16196.000304.000137.000128.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.172 (17.18%)72.233
M≥4.1119.97674.000242.000109.000103.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.172 (17.18%)57.325
M≥4.295.18057.000193.00086.00080.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.172 (17.18%)45.469
M≥4.375.50044.000155.00069.00066.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.172 (17.18%)36.065
M≥4.459.86933.000123.00054.00052.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.172 (17.18%)28.600
M≥4.547.46425.00098.00043.00041.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.172 (17.18%)22.660
M≥4.637.59519.00079.00034.00030.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.172 (17.18%)17.939
M≥4.729.75014.00064.00027.00025.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.172 (17.18%)14.191
M≥4.823.52510.00051.00021.00018.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.172 (17.18%)11.213
M≥4.918.5697.00041.00017.00015.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.172 (17.18%)8.842
M≥514.6455.00034.00013.00011.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.99% 100.00%]0.172 (17.18%)6.965
M≥5.111.5243.00027.00010.0009.0001.000 (99.98%)[99.96% 99.98%]0.172 (17.18%)5.469
M≥5.29.0492.00022.0008.0007.0000.998 (99.82%)[99.79% 99.84%]0.172 (17.18%)4.290
M≥5.37.0771.00018.0006.0005.0000.994 (99.36%)[99.31% 99.41%]0.172 (17.18%)3.349
M≥5.45.5181.00015.0005.0004.0000.982 (98.16%)[98.08% 98.24%]0.172 (17.18%)2.602
M≥5.54.2760.00012.0004.0003.0000.957 (95.72%)[95.59% 95.85%]0.172 (17.18%)2.008
M≥5.63.2880.00010.0003.0002.0000.914 (91.42%)[91.24% 91.59%]0.172 (17.18%)1.533
M≥5.72.5070.0008.0002.0001.0000.852 (85.25%)[85.02% 85.46%]0.172 (17.18%)1.162
M≥5.81.8840.0007.0001.0001.0000.769 (76.94%)[76.68% 77.20%]0.172 (17.18%)0.862
M≥5.91.3930.0005.0001.0000.0000.669 (66.93%)[66.64% 67.22%]0.172 (17.16%)0.629
M≥61.0330.0004.0001.0000.0000.561 (56.13%)[55.83% 56.44%]0.171 (17.14%)0.452
M≥6.10.7220.0004.0000.0000.0000.446 (44.59%)[44.28% 44.90%]0.123 (12.29%)0.317
M≥6.20.4930.0003.0000.0000.0000.337 (33.65%)[33.36% 33.95%]0.105 (10.53%)0.212
M≥6.30.3510.0002.0000.0000.0000.256 (25.62%)[25.35% 25.89%]0.081 (8.10%)0.148
M≥6.40.2530.0002.0000.0000.0000.193 (19.26%)[19.01% 19.50%]0.069 (6.91%)0.102
M≥6.50.1850.0002.0000.0000.0000.147 (14.70%)[14.48% 14.92%]0.055 (5.50%)0.074
M≥6.60.1360.0001.0000.0000.0000.113 (11.33%)[11.14% 11.53%]0.046 (4.60%)0.054
M≥6.70.1000.0001.0000.0000.0000.085 (8.52%)[8.35% 8.69%]0.038 (3.79%)0.039
M≥6.80.0720.0001.0000.0000.0000.064 (6.40%)[6.25% 6.56%]0.032 (3.15%)0.028
M≥6.90.0510.0001.0000.0000.0000.046 (4.63%)[4.50% 4.76%]0.024 (2.45%)0.019
M≥70.0360.0001.0000.0000.0000.034 (3.39%)[3.28% 3.50%]0.020 (2.01%)0.014
M≥7.10.0280.0001.0000.0000.0000.026 (2.64%)[2.54% 2.74%]0.018 (1.80%)9.81E-3
M≥7.20.0210.0000.0000.0000.0000.020 (1.99%)[1.90% 2.08%]0.015 (1.53%)6.78E-3
M≥7.30.0140.0000.0000.0000.0000.014 (1.39%)[1.31% 1.46%]0.012 (1.17%)4.24E-3
M≥7.40.0110.0000.0000.0000.0000.011 (1.10%)[1.04% 1.17%]0.010 (1.02%)3.26E-3
M≥7.58.64E-30.0000.0000.0000.0008.48E-3 (0.85%)[0.79% 0.91%]8.22E-3 (0.82%)2.43E-3
M≥7.64.32E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.26E-3 (0.43%)[0.39% 0.47%]4.16E-3 (0.42%)1.37E-3
M≥7.71.70E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.69E-3 (0.17%)[0.14% 0.20%]1.65E-3 (0.17%)5.50E-4
M≥7.89.70E-40.0000.0000.0000.0009.60E-4 (0.10%)[0.08% 0.12%]9.40E-4 (0.09%)2.90E-4
M≥7.94.70E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.70E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.06%]4.70E-4 (0.05%)1.00E-4
M≥81.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)4.00E-5
M≥8.12.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.21.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 yr Probability1 yr Prob 95% Conf1 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.53694.7852828.0006545.0003385.0003154.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.129 (12.91%)2007.494
M≥2.62934.9302241.0005196.0002689.0002537.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.129 (12.91%)1594.596
M≥2.72331.1681774.0004125.0002137.0001994.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.129 (12.91%)1266.546
M≥2.81851.6191404.0003285.0001698.0001598.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.129 (12.91%)1006.003
M≥2.91470.6541111.0002607.0001349.0001249.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.129 (12.91%)798.988
M≥31168.111878.0002072.0001072.0001046.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.129 (12.91%)634.584
M≥3.1927.775693.0001644.000853.000801.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.129 (12.91%)504.015
M≥3.2736.834547.0001307.000678.000654.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.129 (12.91%)400.282
M≥3.3585.225430.0001041.000538.000501.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.129 (12.91%)317.893
M≥3.4464.750338.000828.000428.000400.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.129 (12.91%)252.426
M≥3.5369.064265.000657.000340.000317.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.129 (12.91%)200.462
M≥3.6293.039208.000523.000270.000258.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.129 (12.91%)159.155
M≥3.7232.624163.000416.000215.000199.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.129 (12.91%)126.335
M≥3.8184.677127.000332.000171.000160.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.129 (12.91%)100.283
M≥3.9146.60098.000265.000136.000130.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.129 (12.91%)79.596
M≥4116.36276.000211.000108.000101.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.129 (12.91%)63.181
M≥4.192.35159.000168.00086.00080.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.129 (12.91%)50.139
M≥4.273.26245.000135.00068.00063.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.129 (12.91%)39.772
M≥4.358.10834.000108.00054.00051.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.129 (12.91%)31.547
M≥4.446.07626.00087.00043.00042.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.129 (12.91%)25.014
M≥4.536.52419.00070.00034.00031.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.129 (12.91%)19.815
M≥4.628.93414.00056.00027.00026.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.129 (12.91%)15.688
M≥4.722.89010.00045.00021.00019.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.129 (12.91%)12.407
M≥4.818.1007.00037.00017.00016.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.129 (12.91%)9.803
M≥4.914.2855.00030.00013.00011.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.99% 100.00%]0.129 (12.91%)7.730
M≥511.2614.00025.00010.0009.0001.000 (99.98%)[99.96% 99.98%]0.129 (12.91%)6.087
M≥5.18.8552.00020.0008.0007.0000.999 (99.88%)[99.85% 99.90%]0.129 (12.91%)4.780
M≥5.26.9521.00017.0006.0005.0000.995 (99.47%)[99.42% 99.51%]0.129 (12.91%)3.748
M≥5.35.4331.00014.0005.0004.0000.985 (98.45%)[98.37% 98.53%]0.129 (12.91%)2.926
M≥5.44.2340.00011.0004.0003.0000.962 (96.23%)[96.11% 96.34%]0.129 (12.91%)2.274
M≥5.53.2780.0009.0003.0002.0000.924 (92.41%)[92.25% 92.58%]0.129 (12.91%)1.753
M≥5.62.5160.0008.0002.0001.0000.866 (86.62%)[86.41% 86.83%]0.129 (12.91%)1.337
M≥5.71.9180.0006.0002.0001.0000.790 (79.01%)[78.75% 79.26%]0.129 (12.91%)1.014
M≥5.81.4370.0005.0001.0001.0000.695 (69.55%)[69.26% 69.83%]0.129 (12.91%)0.751
M≥5.91.0610.0004.0001.0000.0000.589 (58.87%)[58.56% 59.17%]0.129 (12.90%)0.548
M≥60.7810.0004.0000.0000.0000.481 (48.07%)[47.76% 48.38%]0.129 (12.89%)0.393
M≥6.10.5450.0003.0000.0000.0000.372 (37.23%)[36.93% 37.53%]0.092 (9.17%)0.275
M≥6.20.3700.0002.0000.0000.0000.275 (27.51%)[27.23% 27.78%]0.078 (7.81%)0.183
M≥6.30.2630.0002.0000.0000.0000.206 (20.64%)[20.39% 20.89%]0.060 (5.96%)0.128
M≥6.40.1880.0002.0000.0000.0000.153 (15.25%)[15.03% 15.48%]0.051 (5.05%)0.088
M≥6.50.1380.0001.0000.0000.0000.115 (11.54%)[11.35% 11.74%]0.040 (4.00%)0.064
M≥6.60.1010.0001.0000.0000.0000.088 (8.82%)[8.65% 9.00%]0.033 (3.35%)0.046
M≥6.70.0740.0001.0000.0000.0000.066 (6.55%)[6.40% 6.71%]0.027 (2.74%)0.033
M≥6.80.0530.0001.0000.0000.0000.049 (4.88%)[4.75% 5.02%]0.023 (2.27%)0.024
M≥6.90.0370.0001.0000.0000.0000.035 (3.48%)[3.37% 3.60%]0.017 (1.74%)0.017
M≥70.0270.0001.0000.0000.0000.025 (2.53%)[2.43% 2.63%]0.014 (1.44%)0.012
M≥7.10.0200.0000.0000.0000.0000.020 (1.97%)[1.88% 2.05%]0.013 (1.30%)8.54E-3
M≥7.20.0150.0000.0000.0000.0000.015 (1.47%)[1.39% 1.54%]0.011 (1.10%)5.93E-3
M≥7.30.0100.0000.0000.0000.0009.90E-3 (0.99%)[0.93% 1.05%]8.18E-3 (0.82%)3.73E-3
M≥7.47.91E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.81E-3 (0.78%)[0.73% 0.84%]7.16E-3 (0.72%)2.87E-3
M≥7.55.92E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.85E-3 (0.58%)[0.54% 0.63%]5.66E-3 (0.57%)2.14E-3
M≥7.62.96E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.94E-3 (0.29%)[0.26% 0.33%]2.85E-3 (0.29%)1.20E-3
M≥7.71.21E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.21E-3 (0.12%)[0.10% 0.15%]1.17E-3 (0.12%)5.10E-4
M≥7.86.70E-40.0000.0000.0000.0006.70E-4 (0.07%)[0.05% 0.09%]6.50E-4 (0.07%)2.60E-4
M≥7.93.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)9.00E-5
M≥81.30E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.30E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.30E-4 (0.01%)4.00E-5
M≥8.11.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.21.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Month Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 mo Probability1 mo Prob 95% Conf1 mo Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.52616.8732114.0004110.0002451.0002313.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.087 (8.67%)1638.896
M≥2.62078.6771673.0003264.0001948.0001834.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.087 (8.67%)1301.768
M≥2.71651.0021324.0002594.0001547.0001469.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.087 (8.67%)1033.959
M≥2.81311.3891046.0002061.0001230.0001175.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.087 (8.67%)821.269
M≥2.91041.539827.0001639.000977.000940.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.087 (8.67%)652.261
M≥3827.286652.0001303.000777.000754.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.087 (8.67%)518.062
M≥3.1657.042514.0001034.000617.000591.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.087 (8.67%)411.450
M≥3.2521.801405.000822.000491.000470.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.087 (8.67%)326.760
M≥3.3414.419318.000655.000390.000374.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.087 (8.67%)259.498
M≥3.4329.106249.000522.000310.000297.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.087 (8.67%)206.064
M≥3.5261.332195.000415.000246.000237.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.087 (8.67%)163.650
M≥3.6207.479152.000331.000196.000185.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.087 (8.67%)129.920
M≥3.7164.699118.000264.000156.000154.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.087 (8.67%)103.133
M≥3.8130.74292.000211.000124.000117.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.087 (8.67%)81.866
M≥3.9103.78171.000169.00098.00093.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.087 (8.67%)64.976
M≥482.37455.000135.00078.00074.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.087 (8.67%)51.576
M≥4.165.36942.000108.00062.00058.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.087 (8.67%)40.928
M≥4.251.86632.00087.00049.00046.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.087 (8.67%)32.469
M≥4.341.13424.00070.00039.00037.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.087 (8.67%)25.749
M≥4.432.61018.00057.00031.00030.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.087 (8.67%)20.413
M≥4.525.84013.00046.00024.00024.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.087 (8.67%)16.167
M≥4.620.46810.00037.00019.00018.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.087 (8.67%)12.801
M≥4.716.1907.00030.00015.00015.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.99% 100.00%]0.087 (8.67%)10.124
M≥4.812.7975.00025.00012.00011.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.99% 100.00%]0.087 (8.67%)7.999
M≥4.910.0973.00021.0009.0008.0001.000 (99.97%)[99.95% 99.98%]0.087 (8.67%)6.308
M≥57.9552.00017.0007.0007.0000.998 (99.83%)[99.81% 99.86%]0.087 (8.67%)4.966
M≥5.16.2531.00014.0006.0005.0000.994 (99.40%)[99.35% 99.45%]0.087 (8.67%)3.899
M≥5.24.9041.00012.0004.0004.0000.982 (98.20%)[98.11% 98.28%]0.087 (8.67%)3.057
M≥5.33.8290.00010.0003.0003.0000.958 (95.83%)[95.71% 95.96%]0.087 (8.67%)2.384
M≥5.42.9790.0008.0003.0002.0000.918 (91.75%)[91.58% 91.92%]0.087 (8.67%)1.852
M≥5.52.3030.0007.0002.0001.0000.857 (85.73%)[85.52% 85.95%]0.087 (8.67%)1.428
M≥5.61.7650.0006.0001.0001.0000.778 (77.84%)[77.58% 78.10%]0.087 (8.67%)1.089
M≥5.71.3430.0005.0001.0001.0000.687 (68.73%)[68.44% 69.01%]0.087 (8.67%)0.826
M≥5.81.0020.0004.0001.0000.0000.584 (58.41%)[58.10% 58.71%]0.087 (8.67%)0.611
M≥5.90.7370.0003.0000.0000.0000.478 (47.80%)[47.49% 48.11%]0.087 (8.66%)0.446
M≥60.5380.0003.0000.0000.0000.378 (37.79%)[37.49% 38.09%]0.086 (8.65%)0.318
M≥6.10.3750.0002.0000.0000.0000.285 (28.52%)[28.24% 28.80%]0.061 (6.15%)0.223
M≥6.20.2530.0002.0000.0000.0000.205 (20.50%)[20.25% 20.75%]0.052 (5.21%)0.148
M≥6.30.1780.0001.0000.0000.0000.150 (15.04%)[14.82% 15.26%]0.039 (3.93%)0.102
M≥6.40.1260.0001.0000.0000.0000.109 (10.89%)[10.69% 11.08%]0.033 (3.32%)0.070
M≥6.50.0920.0001.0000.0000.0000.081 (8.11%)[7.94% 8.28%]0.026 (2.57%)0.051
M≥6.60.0670.0001.0000.0000.0000.061 (6.11%)[5.97% 6.26%]0.022 (2.16%)0.037
M≥6.70.0490.0001.0000.0000.0000.045 (4.53%)[4.41% 4.66%]0.018 (1.78%)0.027
M≥6.80.0360.0001.0000.0000.0000.034 (3.35%)[3.24% 3.47%]0.015 (1.47%)0.019
M≥6.90.0250.0000.0000.0000.0000.024 (2.37%)[2.28% 2.47%]0.011 (1.13%)0.013
M≥70.0180.0000.0000.0000.0000.017 (1.71%)[1.63% 1.80%]9.38E-3 (0.94%)9.50E-3
M≥7.10.0130.0000.0000.0000.0000.013 (1.31%)[1.25% 1.39%]8.44E-3 (0.84%)6.82E-3
M≥7.29.79E-30.0000.0000.0000.0009.63E-3 (0.96%)[0.90% 1.03%]7.06E-3 (0.71%)4.73E-3
M≥7.36.53E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.43E-3 (0.64%)[0.59% 0.69%]5.21E-3 (0.52%)2.95E-3
M≥7.45.09E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.03E-3 (0.50%)[0.46% 0.55%]4.54E-3 (0.45%)2.28E-3
M≥7.53.72E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.67E-3 (0.37%)[0.33% 0.41%]3.51E-3 (0.35%)1.70E-3
M≥7.61.95E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.94E-3 (0.19%)[0.17% 0.22%]1.85E-3 (0.18%)9.60E-4
M≥7.78.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0008.60E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]8.20E-4 (0.08%)4.20E-4
M≥7.84.90E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.90E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]4.70E-4 (0.05%)2.30E-4
M≥7.92.10E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.10E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.10E-4 (0.02%)7.00E-5
M≥88.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0008.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)3.00E-5
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Week Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 wk Probability1 wk Prob 95% Conf1 wk Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.52050.5751705.0003015.0001943.0001896.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.065 (6.54%)1396.141
M≥2.61628.8071348.0002395.0001544.0001456.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.065 (6.54%)1108.926
M≥2.71293.6841065.0001904.0001227.0001179.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.065 (6.54%)880.792
M≥2.81027.572842.0001513.000975.000943.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.065 (6.54%)699.582
M≥2.9816.153664.0001204.000775.000751.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.065 (6.54%)555.626
M≥3648.262523.000958.000616.000608.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.065 (6.54%)441.320
M≥3.1514.871412.000762.000490.000481.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.065 (6.54%)350.505
M≥3.2408.881323.000607.000389.000373.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.065 (6.54%)278.350
M≥3.3324.732254.000483.000309.000303.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.065 (6.54%)221.059
M≥3.4257.877198.000385.000246.000241.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.065 (6.54%)175.543
M≥3.5204.773155.000306.000195.000187.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.065 (6.54%)139.412
M≥3.6162.585120.000245.000155.000151.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.065 (6.54%)110.681
M≥3.7129.06094.000196.000123.000121.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.065 (6.54%)87.861
M≥3.8102.44572.000156.00098.00095.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.065 (6.54%)69.736
M≥3.981.32756.000126.00078.00075.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.065 (6.54%)55.352
M≥464.54543.000101.00062.00060.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.065 (6.54%)43.933
M≥4.151.22532.00081.00049.00048.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.065 (6.54%)34.867
M≥4.240.64324.00066.00039.00037.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.065 (6.54%)27.657
M≥4.332.23318.00053.00031.00029.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.065 (6.54%)21.933
M≥4.425.55414.00043.00024.00023.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.065 (6.54%)17.386
M≥4.520.24810.00035.00019.00018.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.065 (6.54%)13.772
M≥4.616.0437.00029.00015.00014.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.065 (6.54%)10.907
M≥4.712.6905.00024.00012.00011.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.99% 100.00%]0.065 (6.54%)8.626
M≥4.810.0283.00020.0009.0008.0001.000 (99.96%)[99.95% 99.97%]0.065 (6.54%)6.815
M≥4.97.9102.00016.0007.0007.0000.998 (99.85%)[99.82% 99.87%]0.065 (6.54%)5.371
M≥56.2341.00014.0006.0005.0000.995 (99.46%)[99.41% 99.50%]0.065 (6.54%)4.231
M≥5.14.9031.00011.0005.0004.0000.985 (98.46%)[98.38% 98.54%]0.065 (6.54%)3.325
M≥5.23.8460.0009.0003.0003.0000.963 (96.28%)[96.16% 96.40%]0.065 (6.54%)2.607
M≥5.33.0000.0008.0003.0002.0000.925 (92.53%)[92.37% 92.69%]0.065 (6.54%)2.032
M≥5.42.3320.0007.0002.0002.0000.868 (86.80%)[86.59% 87.01%]0.065 (6.54%)1.578
M≥5.51.8010.0006.0002.0001.0000.793 (79.33%)[79.08% 79.58%]0.065 (6.54%)1.216
M≥5.61.3780.0005.0001.0001.0000.704 (70.36%)[70.07% 70.64%]0.065 (6.54%)0.927
M≥5.71.0470.0004.0001.0000.0000.607 (60.66%)[60.36% 60.97%]0.065 (6.54%)0.702
M≥5.80.7800.0003.0001.0000.0000.505 (50.50%)[50.19% 50.81%]0.065 (6.54%)0.519
M≥5.90.5720.0003.0000.0000.0000.405 (40.49%)[40.19% 40.80%]0.065 (6.54%)0.379
M≥60.4150.0002.0000.0000.0000.314 (31.44%)[31.15% 31.72%]0.065 (6.53%)0.270
M≥6.10.2890.0002.0000.0000.0000.233 (23.35%)[23.08% 23.61%]0.046 (4.65%)0.188
M≥6.20.1950.0001.0000.0000.0000.165 (16.49%)[16.26% 16.72%]0.039 (3.92%)0.125
M≥6.30.1370.0001.0000.0000.0000.120 (11.96%)[11.76% 12.17%]0.030 (2.96%)0.086
M≥6.40.0960.0001.0000.0000.0000.085 (8.55%)[8.38% 8.72%]0.025 (2.50%)0.059
M≥6.50.0700.0001.0000.0000.0000.063 (6.33%)[6.18% 6.48%]0.019 (1.92%)0.043
M≥6.60.0510.0001.0000.0000.0000.047 (4.73%)[4.60% 4.86%]0.016 (1.61%)0.031
M≥6.70.0370.0001.0000.0000.0000.035 (3.48%)[3.37% 3.60%]0.013 (1.34%)0.022
M≥6.80.0270.0001.0000.0000.0000.026 (2.56%)[2.47% 2.66%]0.011 (1.11%)0.016
M≥6.90.0190.0000.0000.0000.0000.018 (1.80%)[1.71% 1.88%]8.48E-3 (0.85%)0.011
M≥70.0130.0000.0000.0000.0000.013 (1.29%)[1.22% 1.36%]7.06E-3 (0.71%)7.92E-3
M≥7.10.0100.0000.0000.0000.0009.95E-3 (1.00%)[0.93% 1.06%]6.30E-3 (0.63%)5.68E-3
M≥7.27.32E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.20E-3 (0.72%)[0.67% 0.77%]5.21E-3 (0.52%)3.93E-3
M≥7.34.92E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.84E-3 (0.48%)[0.44% 0.53%]3.85E-3 (0.39%)2.50E-3
M≥7.43.79E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.74E-3 (0.37%)[0.34% 0.41%]3.32E-3 (0.33%)1.93E-3
M≥7.52.81E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.77E-3 (0.28%)[0.25% 0.31%]2.63E-3 (0.26%)1.49E-3
M≥7.61.52E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.51E-3 (0.15%)[0.13% 0.18%]1.42E-3 (0.14%)8.50E-4
M≥7.76.90E-40.0000.0000.0000.0006.90E-4 (0.07%)[0.05% 0.09%]6.50E-4 (0.07%)3.70E-4
M≥7.83.90E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.90E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.05%]3.70E-4 (0.04%)2.10E-4
M≥7.91.40E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.40E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)6.00E-5
M≥85.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0005.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]5.00E-5 (0.01%)3.00E-5
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Day Magnitude Number Distribution

(top)

Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 d Probability1 d Prob 95% Conf1 d Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.51373.8751182.0001846.0001323.0001305.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.041 (4.09%)1048.487
M≥2.61091.258934.0001467.0001051.0001025.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.041 (4.09%)832.772
M≥2.7866.725737.0001166.000836.000815.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.041 (4.09%)661.432
M≥2.8688.426581.000927.000664.000643.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.041 (4.09%)525.362
M≥2.9546.733457.000737.000528.000511.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.041 (4.09%)417.200
M≥3434.267359.000587.000420.000415.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.041 (4.09%)331.381
M≥3.1344.899282.000468.000334.000323.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.041 (4.09%)263.180
M≥3.2273.907220.000373.000265.000258.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.041 (4.09%)209.000
M≥3.3217.528172.000298.000211.000206.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.041 (4.09%)165.981
M≥3.4172.730134.000238.000167.000163.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.041 (4.09%)131.801
M≥3.5137.158104.000191.000133.000129.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.041 (4.09%)104.665
M≥3.6108.90781.000153.000106.000103.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.041 (4.09%)83.103
M≥3.786.45562.000123.00084.00081.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.041 (4.09%)65.969
M≥3.868.62648.00099.00067.00066.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.041 (4.09%)52.363
M≥3.954.47336.00080.00053.00052.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.041 (4.09%)41.561
M≥443.22928.00065.00042.00041.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.041 (4.09%)32.980
M≥4.134.31321.00053.00033.00032.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.041 (4.09%)26.172
M≥4.227.22816.00043.00026.00026.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.041 (4.09%)20.759
M≥4.321.59611.00035.00021.00020.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.041 (4.09%)16.462
M≥4.417.1188.00029.00016.00016.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.99% 100.00%]0.041 (4.09%)13.047
M≥4.513.5626.00024.00013.00012.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.99% 100.00%]0.041 (4.09%)10.334
M≥4.610.7434.00020.00010.00010.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.98% 99.99%]0.041 (4.09%)8.181
M≥4.78.5003.00016.0008.0007.0000.999 (99.92%)[99.90% 99.94%]0.041 (4.09%)6.472
M≥4.86.7192.00014.0006.0006.0000.997 (99.72%)[99.68% 99.75%]0.041 (4.09%)5.113
M≥4.95.2981.00011.0005.0005.0000.990 (99.01%)[98.95% 99.07%]0.041 (4.09%)4.029
M≥54.1760.00010.0004.0003.0000.975 (97.49%)[97.39% 97.58%]0.041 (4.09%)3.173
M≥5.13.2860.0008.0003.0002.0000.947 (94.75%)[94.61% 94.89%]0.041 (4.09%)2.495
M≥5.22.5770.0007.0002.0002.0000.902 (90.18%)[89.99% 90.36%]0.041 (4.09%)1.956
M≥5.32.0080.0006.0002.0001.0000.839 (83.86%)[83.63% 84.09%]0.041 (4.09%)1.523
M≥5.41.5600.0005.0001.0001.0000.759 (75.87%)[75.60% 76.13%]0.041 (4.09%)1.182
M≥5.51.2040.0004.0001.0001.0000.668 (66.75%)[66.46% 67.04%]0.041 (4.09%)0.911
M≥5.60.9200.0004.0001.0000.0000.571 (57.05%)[56.75% 57.36%]0.041 (4.09%)0.694
M≥5.70.6970.0003.0000.0000.0000.475 (47.52%)[47.22% 47.84%]0.041 (4.09%)0.525
M≥5.80.5160.0002.0000.0000.0000.382 (38.23%)[37.93% 38.54%]0.041 (4.08%)0.387
M≥5.90.3780.0002.0000.0000.0000.298 (29.84%)[29.56% 30.13%]0.041 (4.08%)0.282
M≥60.2720.0002.0000.0000.0000.226 (22.56%)[22.30% 22.82%]0.041 (4.08%)0.201
M≥6.10.1890.0001.0000.0000.0000.163 (16.35%)[16.12% 16.58%]0.029 (2.88%)0.139
M≥6.20.1260.0001.0000.0000.0000.113 (11.28%)[11.09% 11.48%]0.024 (2.44%)0.092
M≥6.30.0880.0001.0000.0000.0000.080 (8.03%)[7.86% 8.20%]0.018 (1.84%)0.063
M≥6.40.0610.0001.0000.0000.0000.057 (5.66%)[5.51% 5.80%]0.016 (1.57%)0.043
M≥6.50.0440.0001.0000.0000.0000.041 (4.13%)[4.01% 4.26%]0.012 (1.19%)0.031
M≥6.60.0330.0001.0000.0000.0000.031 (3.08%)[2.98% 3.19%]9.96E-3 (1.00%)0.023
M≥6.70.0240.0000.0000.0000.0000.022 (2.24%)[2.15% 2.33%]8.19E-3 (0.82%)0.016
M≥6.80.0170.0000.0000.0000.0000.016 (1.63%)[1.55% 1.71%]6.80E-3 (0.68%)0.011
M≥6.90.0120.0000.0000.0000.0000.011 (1.13%)[1.06% 1.20%]5.10E-3 (0.51%)7.95E-3
M≥78.32E-30.0000.0000.0000.0008.09E-3 (0.81%)[0.75% 0.87%]4.36E-3 (0.44%)5.64E-3
M≥7.16.22E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.10E-3 (0.61%)[0.56% 0.66%]3.82E-3 (0.38%)4.08E-3
M≥7.24.41E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.34E-3 (0.43%)[0.39% 0.48%]3.12E-3 (0.31%)2.81E-3
M≥7.32.95E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.90E-3 (0.29%)[0.26% 0.33%]2.29E-3 (0.23%)1.84E-3
M≥7.42.31E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.28E-3 (0.23%)[0.20% 0.26%]2.01E-3 (0.20%)1.44E-3
M≥7.51.69E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.67E-3 (0.17%)[0.14% 0.19%]1.57E-3 (0.16%)1.05E-3
M≥7.69.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0009.20E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]8.60E-4 (0.09%)6.30E-4
M≥7.74.50E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.50E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]4.20E-4 (0.04%)2.90E-4
M≥7.82.70E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.70E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]2.60E-4 (0.03%)1.90E-4
M≥7.91.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)6.00E-5
M≥83.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0003.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]3.00E-5 (0.00%)3.00E-5
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Hour Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 hr Probability1 hr Prob 95% Conf1 hr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5497.190441.000577.000492.000485.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.30%)454.391
M≥2.6394.901346.000461.000391.000384.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.30%)360.897
M≥2.7313.639271.000369.000310.000308.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.30%)286.637
M≥2.8249.119212.000295.000247.000243.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.30%)227.676
M≥2.9197.843166.000237.000196.000194.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.30%)180.815
M≥3157.141129.000191.000156.000154.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.30%)143.615
M≥3.1124.792100.000154.000124.000123.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.30%)114.054
M≥3.299.10178.000124.00098.00097.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.30%)90.575
M≥3.378.69160.000101.00078.00078.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.30%)71.923
M≥3.462.48846.00082.00062.00063.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.30%)57.115
M≥3.549.62135.00067.00049.00048.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.30%)45.354
M≥3.639.39927.00054.00039.00039.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.30%)36.013
M≥3.731.26920.00044.00031.00030.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.30%)28.583
M≥3.824.82715.00036.00024.00024.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.30%)22.693
M≥3.919.70611.00030.00019.00019.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.30%)18.014
M≥415.6378.00025.00015.00015.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.30%)14.293
M≥4.112.4096.00021.00012.00012.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.30%)11.340
M≥4.29.8474.00017.00010.0009.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.99% 100.00%]0.013 (1.30%)8.998
M≥4.37.8073.00014.0008.0007.0000.999 (99.94%)[99.92% 99.96%]0.013 (1.30%)7.133
M≥4.46.1872.00012.0006.0005.0000.998 (99.75%)[99.72% 99.78%]0.013 (1.30%)5.654
M≥4.54.8971.00010.0005.0004.0000.992 (99.17%)[99.12% 99.23%]0.013 (1.30%)4.474
M≥4.63.8781.0008.0004.0003.0000.977 (97.68%)[97.59% 97.77%]0.013 (1.30%)3.542
M≥4.73.0690.0007.0003.0002.0000.948 (94.78%)[94.64% 94.92%]0.013 (1.30%)2.804
M≥4.82.4270.0006.0002.0002.0000.904 (90.38%)[90.19% 90.56%]0.013 (1.30%)2.216
M≥4.91.9140.0005.0002.0001.0000.842 (84.24%)[84.01% 84.47%]0.013 (1.30%)1.747
M≥51.5080.0004.0001.0001.0000.766 (76.64%)[76.37% 76.90%]0.013 (1.30%)1.377
M≥5.11.1870.0004.0001.0001.0000.684 (68.37%)[68.08% 68.65%]0.013 (1.30%)1.084
M≥5.20.9310.0003.0001.0000.0000.594 (59.44%)[59.14% 59.75%]0.013 (1.30%)0.851
M≥5.30.7240.0003.0001.0000.0000.505 (50.55%)[50.24% 50.86%]0.013 (1.30%)0.661
M≥5.40.5620.0002.0000.0000.0000.421 (42.14%)[41.83% 42.44%]0.013 (1.30%)0.513
M≥5.50.4330.0002.0000.0000.0000.345 (34.46%)[34.17% 34.76%]0.013 (1.30%)0.396
M≥5.60.3300.0002.0000.0000.0000.276 (27.56%)[27.29% 27.84%]0.013 (1.30%)0.302
M≥5.70.2500.0002.0000.0000.0000.217 (21.70%)[21.44% 21.96%]0.013 (1.30%)0.228
M≥5.80.1840.0001.0000.0000.0000.165 (16.53%)[16.30% 16.76%]0.013 (1.30%)0.168
M≥5.90.1340.0001.0000.0000.0000.124 (12.35%)[12.15% 12.56%]0.013 (1.30%)0.122
M≥60.0960.0001.0000.0000.0000.089 (8.94%)[8.77% 9.12%]0.013 (1.30%)0.087
M≥6.10.0660.0001.0000.0000.0000.063 (6.29%)[6.14% 6.45%]8.99E-3 (0.90%)0.060
M≥6.20.0430.0001.0000.0000.0000.042 (4.18%)[4.05% 4.30%]7.51E-3 (0.75%)0.039
M≥6.30.0300.0001.0000.0000.0000.029 (2.89%)[2.79% 3.00%]5.58E-3 (0.56%)0.027
M≥6.40.0200.0000.0000.0000.0000.020 (1.96%)[1.88% 2.05%]4.66E-3 (0.47%)0.018
M≥6.50.0150.0000.0000.0000.0000.014 (1.44%)[1.36% 1.51%]3.65E-3 (0.36%)0.013
M≥6.60.0100.0000.0000.0000.0000.010 (1.02%)[0.96% 1.08%]2.97E-3 (0.30%)9.15E-3
M≥6.77.58E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.46E-3 (0.75%)[0.69% 0.80%]2.45E-3 (0.24%)6.69E-3
M≥6.85.49E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.44E-3 (0.54%)[0.50% 0.59%]2.08E-3 (0.21%)4.75E-3
M≥6.93.84E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.82E-3 (0.38%)[0.35% 0.42%]1.57E-3 (0.16%)3.37E-3
M≥72.82E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.81E-3 (0.28%)[0.25% 0.32%]1.38E-3 (0.14%)2.48E-3
M≥7.12.04E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.03E-3 (0.20%)[0.18% 0.23%]1.18E-3 (0.12%)1.79E-3
M≥7.21.29E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.28E-3 (0.13%)[0.11% 0.15%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)1.13E-3
M≥7.38.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0008.50E-4 (0.08%)[0.07% 0.11%]6.60E-4 (0.07%)7.30E-4
M≥7.46.80E-40.0000.0000.0000.0006.80E-4 (0.07%)[0.05% 0.09%]6.00E-4 (0.06%)5.90E-4
M≥7.55.50E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.50E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.07%]4.90E-4 (0.05%)4.60E-4
M≥7.63.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.05%]2.90E-4 (0.03%)2.80E-4
M≥7.71.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)1.40E-4
M≥7.81.30E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.30E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.30E-4 (0.01%)1.10E-4
M≥7.94.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)4.00E-5
M≥82.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)2.00E-5
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Hazard Change Over Time

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These plots show how the probability of ruptures of various magnitudes within 100km of any scenario rupture changes over time

M≥5.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard Change

Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour0.764 [0.761 - 0.767]0.7645.91E-512921.745.87E-5
1 Day0.974 [0.973 - 0.975]0.9741.42E-36871.41E-3
1 Week0.994 [0.994 - 0.995]0.9949.88E-3100.619.81E-3
1 Month0.998 [0.998 - 0.999]0.9980.04223.960.041
1 Year1.000 [1.000 - 1.000]1.0000.4042.470.402
10 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000]1.0000.9941.010.994
30 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **1.0001 *1.000
100 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **1.0001 *1.000

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥6.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard Change

Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour0.088 [0.087 - 0.090]0.0886.89E-612835.546.43E-6
1 Day0.223 [0.221 - 0.226]0.2231.65E-41349.281.54E-4
1 Week0.312 [0.309 - 0.314]0.3111.16E-3269.321.08E-3
1 Month0.376 [0.373 - 0.379]0.3734.95E-376.074.62E-3
1 Year0.506 [0.503 - 0.509]0.4750.0598.630.055
10 Years0.757 [0.755 - 0.759]0.5550.4541.670.431
30 Years0.928 [0.927 - 0.928] **0.8381.11 *0.815
100 Years0.999 [0.999 - 0.999] **0.9981 *0.996

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥7.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard Change

Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour2.73E-3 [2.42E-3 - 3.08E-3]2.73E-36.53E-74182.45.89E-7
1 Day7.76E-3 [7.23E-3 - 8.32E-3]7.74E-31.57E-5494.951.41E-5
1 Week0.013 [0.012 - 0.013]0.0121.10E-4114.239.90E-5
1 Month0.017 [0.016 - 0.018]0.0164.70E-436.034.24E-4
1 Year0.030 [0.029 - 0.031]0.0245.71E-35.245.15E-3
10 Years0.086 [0.085 - 0.088]0.0330.0561.550.050
30 Years0.187 [0.187 - 0.188] **0.1601.17 *0.144
100 Years0.473 [0.472 - 0.473] **0.4551.04 *0.403

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥8.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard Change

Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour2.00E-5 [3.48E-6 - 8.07E-5]2.00E-51.24E-81618.321.06E-8
1 Day3.03E-5 [8.04E-6 - 9.59E-5]3.00E-52.97E-7102.082.54E-7
1 Week4.21E-5 [1.49E-5 - 1.12E-4]4.00E-52.08E-620.251.78E-6
1 Month7.89E-5 [3.96E-5 - 1.60E-4]7.00E-58.90E-68.867.63E-6
1 Year2.08E-4 [1.59E-4 - 2.99E-4]1.00E-41.08E-41.929.29E-5
10 Years1.22E-3 [1.16E-3 - 1.31E-3]1.20E-41.10E-31.119.29E-4
30 Years3.62E-3 [3.57E-3 - 3.72E-3] **3.50E-31.03 *2.78E-3
100 Years0.014 [0.014 - 0.014] **0.0141.01 *9.25E-3

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

Trigger Rupture Fault Map

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Map

Fault Distances To Triggers

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Section NameStrike, Dip, Rake# Hypos In PolyMax Mag w/ Hypo In Poly# Surfs In PolyMax Mag w/ Surf In PolyMin Dist To Any (km)Min Poly Dist To Any (km)Min Dist To Largest (km)Min Poly Dist To Largest (km)
Airport Lake359, 50, -9017.117.14.7580.0004.7580.000
Little Lake327, 90, 1800013.4420.82913.4420.829
So Sierra Nevada3, 50, -900014.98214.58814.98214.588
Tank Canyon189, 50, -900017.24117.23525.80824.238

Individual Simulated Catalog Maps

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These are map plots of individual catalogs from the simulations, selected as the closest catalog to each of the given percentiles in terms of total number of events.

Durationp0.0 %-ilep25.0 %-ilep50.0 %-ilep75.0 %-ilep90.0 %-ilep95.0 %-ilep97.5 %-ilep98.0 %-ilep99.0 %-ilep99.5 %-ilep99.9 %-ilep100.0 %-ile
1 WeekMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap
1 MonthMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap
1 YearMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap
10 YearMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min Mag1 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)10 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)10 yr Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 200 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
Tank Canyon0.111720.020 (1.97%)[1.88% 2.06%]0.032 (3.18%)[3.07% 3.29%]0.043 (4.35%)[4.22% 4.48%]0.068 (6.78%)[6.63% 6.94%]0.094 (9.38%)[9.20% 9.56%]0.02849
Garlock (Central)0.031836.53E-3 (0.65%)[0.60% 0.71%]0.011 (1.08%)[1.02% 1.15%]0.015 (1.46%)[1.39% 1.54%]0.022 (2.23%)[2.14% 2.33%]0.031 (3.08%)[2.98% 3.19%]0.00964
Panamint Valley0.018073.29E-3 (0.33%)[0.29% 0.37%]5.43E-3 (0.54%)[0.50% 0.59%]7.49E-3 (0.75%)[0.70% 0.80%]0.012 (1.21%)[1.14% 1.28%]0.017 (1.75%)[1.67% 1.83%]0.00406
Owl Lake0.016352.26E-3 (0.23%)[0.20% 0.26%]3.98E-3 (0.40%)[0.36% 0.44%]5.72E-3 (0.57%)[0.53% 0.62%]9.65E-3 (0.97%)[0.91% 1.03%]0.014 (1.42%)[1.35% 1.50%]0.0028
Little Lake0.0164.33E-3 (0.43%)[0.39% 0.48%]6.93E-3 (0.69%)[0.64% 0.75%]8.75E-3 (0.88%)[0.82% 0.94%]0.012 (1.23%)[1.16% 1.30%]0.016 (1.60%)[1.52% 1.68%]0.00737
Ash Hill0.011541.64E-3 (0.16%)[0.14% 0.19%]2.94E-3 (0.29%)[0.26% 0.33%]4.26E-3 (0.43%)[0.39% 0.47%]7.28E-3 (0.73%)[0.68% 0.78%]0.011 (1.10%)[1.03% 1.16%]0.00223
Garlock (East)0.010511.38E-3 (0.14%)[0.12% 0.16%]2.50E-3 (0.25%)[0.22% 0.28%]3.65E-3 (0.36%)[0.33% 0.40%]6.36E-3 (0.64%)[0.59% 0.69%]9.61E-3 (0.96%)[0.90% 1.02%]0.00165
Blackwater0.007111.29E-3 (0.13%)[0.11% 0.15%]2.32E-3 (0.23%)[0.20% 0.26%]3.05E-3 (0.30%)[0.27% 0.34%]4.96E-3 (0.50%)[0.45% 0.54%]6.78E-3 (0.68%)[0.63% 0.73%]0.00181
Hunter Mountain-Saline Valley0.0061.14E-3 (0.11%)[0.09% 0.14%]1.96E-3 (0.20%)[0.17% 0.23%]2.56E-3 (0.26%)[0.23% 0.29%]4.10E-3 (0.41%)[0.37% 0.45%]5.88E-3 (0.59%)[0.54% 0.64%]0.0015
Gravel Hills-Harper Lk0.00498.00E-4 (0.08%)[0.06% 0.10%]1.51E-3 (0.15%)[0.13% 0.18%]2.11E-3 (0.21%)[0.18% 0.24%]3.35E-3 (0.34%)[0.30% 0.37%]4.65E-3 (0.46%)[0.42% 0.51%]0.00127

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 165 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
Panamint Valley0.016693.07E-3 (0.31%)[0.27% 0.34%]5.01E-3 (0.50%)[0.46% 0.55%]6.91E-3 (0.69%)[0.64% 0.74%]0.011 (1.12%)[1.06% 1.19%]0.016 (1.62%)[1.54% 1.70%]0.00385
Garlock (Central)0.015613.17E-3 (0.32%)[0.28% 0.35%]5.22E-3 (0.52%)[0.48% 0.57%]7.00E-3 (0.70%)[0.65% 0.75%]0.011 (1.10%)[1.03% 1.16%]0.015 (1.54%)[1.46% 1.61%]0.00481
Tank Canyon0.013482.53E-3 (0.25%)[0.22% 0.29%]4.11E-3 (0.41%)[0.37% 0.45%]5.84E-3 (0.58%)[0.54% 0.63%]9.41E-3 (0.94%)[0.88% 1.00%]0.013 (1.34%)[1.27% 1.41%]0.00318
Owl Lake0.006891.20E-3 (0.12%)[0.10% 0.14%]2.10E-3 (0.21%)[0.18% 0.24%]2.88E-3 (0.29%)[0.26% 0.32%]4.70E-3 (0.47%)[0.43% 0.51%]6.87E-3 (0.69%)[0.64% 0.74%]0.00172
Garlock (East)0.006378.90E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.61E-3 (0.16%)[0.14% 0.19%]2.47E-3 (0.25%)[0.22% 0.28%]4.14E-3 (0.41%)[0.38% 0.46%]6.05E-3 (0.60%)[0.56% 0.66%]0.00126
Little Lake0.006321.59E-3 (0.16%)[0.14% 0.19%]2.58E-3 (0.26%)[0.23% 0.29%]3.31E-3 (0.33%)[0.30% 0.37%]4.79E-3 (0.48%)[0.44% 0.52%]6.31E-3 (0.63%)[0.58% 0.68%]0.00298
Hunter Mountain-Saline Valley0.00571.09E-3 (0.11%)[0.09% 0.13%]1.85E-3 (0.18%)[0.16% 0.21%]2.41E-3 (0.24%)[0.21% 0.27%]3.90E-3 (0.39%)[0.35% 0.43%]5.63E-3 (0.56%)[0.52% 0.61%]0.00142
So Sierra Nevada0.003879.00E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.40E-3 (0.14%)[0.12% 0.17%]1.77E-3 (0.18%)[0.15% 0.21%]2.82E-3 (0.28%)[0.25% 0.32%]3.86E-3 (0.39%)[0.35% 0.43%]0.00106
Ash Hill0.003185.20E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]9.10E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.28E-3 (0.13%)[0.11% 0.15%]2.12E-3 (0.21%)[0.18% 0.24%]3.17E-3 (0.32%)[0.28% 0.35%]7.1E-4
Garlock (West)0.0035.50E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.07%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.24E-3 (0.12%)[0.10% 0.15%]2.02E-3 (0.20%)[0.18% 0.23%]3.00E-3 (0.30%)[0.27% 0.34%]0.001

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 119 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
Garlock (Central)0.013752.80E-3 (0.28%)[0.25% 0.32%]4.60E-3 (0.46%)[0.42% 0.50%]6.24E-3 (0.62%)[0.58% 0.68%]9.67E-3 (0.97%)[0.91% 1.03%]0.014 (1.36%)[1.29% 1.44%]0.00432
Panamint Valley0.008041.50E-3 (0.15%)[0.13% 0.18%]2.59E-3 (0.26%)[0.23% 0.29%]3.47E-3 (0.35%)[0.31% 0.39%]5.62E-3 (0.56%)[0.52% 0.61%]8.00E-3 (0.80%)[0.75% 0.86%]0.00212
Hunter Mountain-Saline Valley0.005321.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.08% 0.12%]1.71E-3 (0.17%)[0.15% 0.20%]2.26E-3 (0.23%)[0.20% 0.26%]3.66E-3 (0.37%)[0.33% 0.41%]5.29E-3 (0.53%)[0.49% 0.58%]0.00134
Owl Lake0.004089.60E-4 (0.10%)[0.08% 0.12%]1.51E-3 (0.15%)[0.13% 0.18%]1.95E-3 (0.19%)[0.17% 0.22%]2.90E-3 (0.29%)[0.26% 0.33%]4.08E-3 (0.41%)[0.37% 0.45%]0.00139
Garlock (East)0.003916.80E-4 (0.07%)[0.05% 0.09%]1.13E-3 (0.11%)[0.09% 0.14%]1.73E-3 (0.17%)[0.15% 0.20%]2.73E-3 (0.27%)[0.24% 0.31%]3.91E-3 (0.39%)[0.35% 0.43%]0.00107
Garlock (West)0.00295.30E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]8.60E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.19E-3 (0.12%)[0.10% 0.14%]1.93E-3 (0.19%)[0.17% 0.22%]2.90E-3 (0.29%)[0.26% 0.33%]9.6E-4
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.001463.40E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.05%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]6.50E-4 (0.07%)[0.05% 0.08%]9.80E-4 (0.10%)[0.08% 0.12%]1.44E-3 (0.14%)[0.12% 0.17%]4.4E-4
So Sierra Nevada0.001253.50E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.05%]5.10E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]6.30E-4 (0.06%)[0.05% 0.08%]9.10E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.24E-3 (0.12%)[0.10% 0.15%]3.8E-4
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.001233.40E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.05%]4.90E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]6.20E-4 (0.06%)[0.05% 0.08%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.21E-3 (0.12%)[0.10% 0.15%]3.8E-4
Tank Canyon0.001081.90E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]3.70E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.05%]5.20E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]8.10E-4 (0.08%)[0.06% 0.10%]1.08E-3 (0.11%)[0.09% 0.13%]2.3E-4

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 67 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
Garlock (Central)0.006441.25E-3 (0.12%)[0.10% 0.15%]2.05E-3 (0.21%)[0.18% 0.24%]2.74E-3 (0.27%)[0.24% 0.31%]4.41E-3 (0.44%)[0.40% 0.48%]6.43E-3 (0.64%)[0.59% 0.69%]0.00188
Hunter Mountain-Saline Valley0.004839.20E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.53E-3 (0.15%)[0.13% 0.18%]2.04E-3 (0.20%)[0.18% 0.23%]3.36E-3 (0.34%)[0.30% 0.37%]4.83E-3 (0.48%)[0.44% 0.53%]0.00124
Panamint Valley0.004839.20E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.53E-3 (0.15%)[0.13% 0.18%]2.04E-3 (0.20%)[0.18% 0.23%]3.36E-3 (0.34%)[0.30% 0.37%]4.83E-3 (0.48%)[0.44% 0.53%]0.00124
Garlock (West)0.002514.60E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.06%]7.50E-4 (0.07%)[0.06% 0.09%]1.02E-3 (0.10%)[0.08% 0.12%]1.64E-3 (0.16%)[0.14% 0.19%]2.51E-3 (0.25%)[0.22% 0.28%]7.7E-4
Garlock (East)0.001672.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.02% 0.04%]4.40E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]6.40E-4 (0.06%)[0.05% 0.08%]1.07E-3 (0.11%)[0.09% 0.13%]1.67E-3 (0.17%)[0.14% 0.19%]4.2E-4
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.001453.40E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.05%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]6.40E-4 (0.06%)[0.05% 0.08%]9.70E-4 (0.10%)[0.08% 0.12%]1.43E-3 (0.14%)[0.12% 0.17%]4.4E-4
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.001133.10E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]4.30E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]5.50E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.07%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)[0.06% 0.10%]1.11E-3 (0.11%)[0.09% 0.13%]3.5E-4
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)6.6E-41.80E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.50E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]3.30E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.05%]4.50E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]6.60E-4 (0.07%)[0.05% 0.08%]1.8E-4
Death Valley (No)5.1E-41.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.02% 0.04%]3.60E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.05%]5.10E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]1.4E-4
Death Valley (Black Mtns Frontal)5.0E-41.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.50E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]3.70E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.05%]5.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]1.3E-4

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 28 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (Mojave N)1.6E-43.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]5.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.30E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]4.0E-5
San Andreas (Mojave S)1.6E-43.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]5.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.30E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]4.0E-5
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)1.6E-43.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]5.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.30E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]4.0E-5
Garlock (Central)1.2E-43.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]7.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]4.0E-5
Garlock (West)1.2E-43.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]7.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]4.0E-5
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)1.2E-41.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]3.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]5.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]2.0E-5
San Andreas (Coachella) rev1.1E-42.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]3.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]9.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.10E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]3.0E-5
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)1.0E-41.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]3.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]2.0E-5
Garlock (East)9.0E-50.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]7.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]9.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.0E-5
San Andreas (Big Bend)4.0E-50.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]3.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]0.0

Fault Magnitude-Probability Distributions

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The first 5 sections (sorted by trigger rate) are plotted below. All fault MPDs are available here

1 Week1 Month1 Year10 Year
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥2.5Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 100000,
  "duration": 10.0,
  "startTimeMillis": 1562383192000,
  "includeSpontaneous": false,
  "randomSeed": 123456789,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_triggered_descendants",
      "descendantsOnly": true
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "reuseERFs": true,
  "simulationName": "Searles Valley M6.4 and M7.1 PointSource",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2019_07_05-M7.1_SearlesValley_Sequence_UpdatedMw_and_depth",
  "triggerRuptures": [
    {
      "mag": 6.4,
      "latitude": 35.705,
      "longitude": -117.508,
      "depth": 8.7,
      "occurrenceTimeMillis": 1562261628000
    },
    {
      "mag": 7.1,
      "latitude": 35.766,
      "longitude": -117.605,
      "depth": 17.0,
      "occurrenceTimeMillis": 1562383192000 
    } 
  ],
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.14,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED"
}