Searles Valley M6.4 Results

Searles Valley M6.4
Num Simulations100000
Start Time2019/07/04 17:33:48 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1562261628000
Duration10 Years
Includes Spontaneous?false
Trigger Ruptures(none)

Table Of Contents

Probabilities Summary Table

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Magnitude1 Hour Prob1 Day Prob1 Week Prob1 Month Prob1 Year Prob10 Year Prob
M≥31.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf[100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%]
M≥3.51.000 (99.99%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf[99.98% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%]
M≥40.947 (94.67%)0.999 (99.92%)1.000 (99.99%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)1.000 (100.00%)
95% Conf[94.53% 94.81%][99.90% 99.94%][99.98% 99.99%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%][100.00% 100.00%]
M≥4.50.608 (60.78%)0.900 (90.01%)0.955 (95.54%)0.976 (97.56%)0.991 (99.05%)0.996 (99.58%)
95% Conf[60.48% 61.08%][89.82% 90.19%][95.41% 95.67%][97.46% 97.65%][98.99% 99.11%][99.53% 99.61%]
M≥50.256 (25.64%)0.524 (52.40%)0.638 (63.85%)0.706 (70.60%)0.789 (78.91%)0.842 (84.22%)
95% Conf[25.36% 25.91%][52.08% 52.70%][63.55% 64.14%][70.31% 70.88%][78.66% 79.16%][83.99% 84.45%]
M≥5.50.087 (8.68%)0.206 (20.63%)0.276 (27.65%)0.325 (32.49%)0.399 (39.89%)0.458 (45.81%)
95% Conf[8.51% 8.86%][20.38% 20.88%][27.37% 27.93%][32.20% 32.78%][39.59% 40.19%][45.50% 46.12%]
M≥60.025 (2.53%)0.064 (6.41%)0.089 (8.94%)0.110 (10.98%)0.144 (14.37%)0.174 (17.40%)
95% Conf[2.43% 2.63%][6.26% 6.56%][8.77% 9.12%][10.79% 11.17%][14.15% 14.59%][17.16% 17.64%]
M≥6.47.32E-3 (0.73%)0.019 (1.93%)0.028 (2.79%)0.035 (3.46%)0.047 (4.66%)0.059 (5.85%)
95% Conf[0.68% 0.79%][1.85% 2.02%][2.68% 2.89%][3.35% 3.58%][4.53% 4.79%][5.71% 6.00%]
M≥6.55.28E-3 (0.53%)0.014 (1.40%)0.020 (2.01%)0.025 (2.54%)0.035 (3.46%)0.044 (4.35%)
95% Conf[0.48% 0.58%][1.33% 1.47%][1.92% 2.10%][2.44% 2.64%][3.35% 3.57%][4.23% 4.48%]
M≥78.40E-4 (0.08%)2.42E-3 (0.24%)3.54E-3 (0.35%)4.75E-3 (0.47%)6.83E-3 (0.68%)9.19E-3 (0.92%)
95% Conf[0.07% 0.10%][0.21% 0.27%][0.32% 0.39%][0.43% 0.52%][0.63% 0.74%][0.86% 0.98%]
M≥7.51.60E-4 (0.02%)4.40E-4 (0.04%)7.70E-4 (0.08%)9.80E-4 (0.10%)1.48E-3 (0.15%)2.08E-3 (0.21%)
95% Conf[0.01% 0.03%][0.03% 0.06%][0.06% 0.10%][0.08% 0.12%][0.13% 0.17%][0.18% 0.24%]
M≥80.000 (0.00%)0.000 (0.00%)2.00E-5 (0.00%)2.00E-5 (0.00%)3.00E-5 (0.00%)4.00E-5 (0.00%)
95% Conf[0.00% 0.00%][0.00% 0.00%][0.00% 0.01%][0.00% 0.01%][0.00% 0.01%][0.00% 0.01%]

Magnitude Number Distribution

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10 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode10 yr Probability10 yr Prob 95% Conf10 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5934.425543.0002602.000719.000613.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.051 (5.08%)417.998
M≥2.6742.164428.0002064.000572.000509.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.051 (5.08%)331.977
M≥2.7589.463337.0001638.000454.000398.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.051 (5.08%)263.664
M≥2.8468.175265.0001303.000361.000324.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.051 (5.08%)209.418
M≥2.9371.885207.0001035.000288.000259.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.051 (5.08%)166.350
M≥3295.447162.000824.000229.000203.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.051 (5.08%)132.167
M≥3.1234.697127.000656.000182.000172.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.051 (5.08%)104.983
M≥3.2186.40298.000522.000145.000128.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.051 (5.08%)83.376
M≥3.3148.07476.000415.000115.00099.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.051 (5.08%)66.217
M≥3.4117.61859.000330.00092.00082.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.051 (5.08%)52.601
M≥3.593.43145.000263.00073.00064.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.051 (5.08%)41.775
M≥3.674.18935.000209.00058.00052.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.051 (5.08%)33.165
M≥3.758.91526.000167.00046.00042.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.051 (5.08%)26.345
M≥3.846.78620.000133.00037.00030.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.051 (5.08%)20.924
M≥3.937.15115.000107.00029.00025.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.051 (5.08%)16.609
M≥429.50811.00086.00023.00020.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.051 (5.08%)13.194
M≥4.123.4348.00069.00018.00016.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.99% 100.00%]0.051 (5.08%)10.480
M≥4.218.5996.00055.00015.00012.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.99% 100.00%]0.051 (5.08%)8.313
M≥4.314.7594.00045.00012.00010.0001.000 (99.98%)[99.97% 99.99%]0.051 (5.08%)6.593
M≥4.411.7203.00036.0009.0007.0000.999 (99.91%)[99.89% 99.93%]0.051 (5.08%)5.237
M≥4.59.2912.00029.0007.0006.0000.996 (99.58%)[99.53% 99.61%]0.051 (5.08%)4.155
M≥4.67.3741.00024.0006.0004.0000.987 (98.74%)[98.67% 98.81%]0.051 (5.08%)3.297
M≥4.75.8510.00019.0004.0003.0000.971 (97.12%)[97.01% 97.22%]0.051 (5.08%)2.615
M≥4.84.6350.00016.0003.0002.0000.943 (94.27%)[94.12% 94.41%]0.051 (5.08%)2.073
M≥4.93.6640.00013.0003.0002.0000.899 (89.91%)[89.72% 90.10%]0.051 (5.08%)1.639
M≥52.8950.00011.0002.0001.0000.842 (84.22%)[83.99% 84.45%]0.051 (5.08%)1.294
M≥5.12.2870.0009.0002.0001.0000.773 (77.29%)[77.03% 77.55%]0.051 (5.08%)1.020
M≥5.21.8040.0008.0001.0000.0000.696 (69.60%)[69.32% 69.89%]0.051 (5.08%)0.803
M≥5.31.4200.0006.0001.0000.0000.616 (61.59%)[61.28% 61.89%]0.051 (5.08%)0.631
M≥5.41.1160.0005.0001.0000.0000.535 (53.49%)[53.18% 53.79%]0.051 (5.08%)0.494
M≥5.50.8770.0005.0000.0000.0000.458 (45.81%)[45.50% 46.12%]0.051 (5.08%)0.388
M≥5.60.6840.0004.0000.0000.0000.386 (38.58%)[38.28% 38.88%]0.051 (5.08%)0.301
M≥5.70.5310.0003.0000.0000.0000.321 (32.07%)[31.78% 32.36%]0.051 (5.08%)0.233
M≥5.80.4100.0003.0000.0000.0000.263 (26.31%)[26.04% 26.59%]0.051 (5.08%)0.178
M≥5.90.3150.0002.0000.0000.0000.213 (21.26%)[21.00% 21.51%]0.051 (5.07%)0.136
M≥60.2480.0002.0000.0000.0000.174 (17.40%)[17.16% 17.64%]0.051 (5.07%)0.105
M≥6.10.1770.0002.0000.0000.0000.132 (13.25%)[13.04% 13.46%]0.033 (3.33%)0.077
M≥6.20.1290.0001.0000.0000.0000.102 (10.18%)[9.99% 10.37%]0.027 (2.71%)0.057
M≥6.30.0950.0001.0000.0000.0000.077 (7.73%)[7.57% 7.90%]0.021 (2.12%)0.042
M≥6.40.0700.0001.0000.0000.0000.059 (5.85%)[5.71% 6.00%]0.018 (1.77%)0.030
M≥6.50.0510.0001.0000.0000.0000.044 (4.35%)[4.23% 4.48%]0.014 (1.42%)0.021
M≥6.60.0380.0001.0000.0000.0000.033 (3.31%)[3.20% 3.42%]0.012 (1.22%)0.016
M≥6.70.0270.0000.0000.0000.0000.024 (2.44%)[2.35% 2.54%]9.81E-3 (0.98%)0.011
M≥6.80.0200.0000.0000.0000.0000.018 (1.79%)[1.71% 1.88%]8.37E-3 (0.84%)7.89E-3
M≥6.90.0130.0000.0000.0000.0000.013 (1.26%)[1.19% 1.33%]6.54E-3 (0.65%)5.16E-3
M≥79.64E-30.0000.0000.0000.0009.19E-3 (0.92%)[0.86% 0.98%]5.35E-3 (0.53%)3.45E-3
M≥7.17.07E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.82E-3 (0.68%)[0.63% 0.74%]4.67E-3 (0.47%)2.28E-3
M≥7.25.18E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.06E-3 (0.51%)[0.46% 0.55%]3.80E-3 (0.38%)1.58E-3
M≥7.33.56E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.47E-3 (0.35%)[0.31% 0.39%]2.92E-3 (0.29%)1.05E-3
M≥7.42.91E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.84E-3 (0.28%)[0.25% 0.32%]2.58E-3 (0.26%)8.00E-4
M≥7.52.15E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.08E-3 (0.21%)[0.18% 0.24%]2.02E-3 (0.20%)5.80E-4
M≥7.61.07E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.04E-3 (0.10%)[0.09% 0.13%]1.02E-3 (0.10%)2.80E-4
M≥7.73.80E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.70E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.05%]3.60E-4 (0.04%)9.00E-5
M≥7.82.70E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.70E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]2.60E-4 (0.03%)7.00E-5
M≥7.91.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)3.00E-5
M≥84.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Year Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 yr Probability1 yr Prob 95% Conf1 yr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5719.568454.0001796.000582.000539.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.038 (3.79%)370.156
M≥2.6571.510357.0001425.000462.000422.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.038 (3.79%)293.979
M≥2.7453.926280.0001133.000368.000333.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.038 (3.79%)233.477
M≥2.8360.523220.000903.000293.000267.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.038 (3.79%)185.436
M≥2.9286.389172.000719.000233.000208.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.038 (3.79%)147.303
M≥3227.510134.000572.000185.000170.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.038 (3.79%)117.027
M≥3.1180.723104.000453.000148.000135.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.038 (3.79%)92.950
M≥3.2143.53381.000360.000117.000108.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.038 (3.79%)73.822
M≥3.3114.03063.000287.00093.00082.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.038 (3.79%)58.626
M≥3.490.57448.000229.00074.00070.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.038 (3.79%)46.567
M≥3.571.94737.000182.00059.00055.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.038 (3.79%)36.981
M≥3.657.12428.000145.00047.00043.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.038 (3.79%)29.354
M≥3.745.36721.000116.00037.00034.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.038 (3.79%)23.314
M≥3.836.03516.00093.00030.00027.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.038 (3.79%)18.514
M≥3.928.60212.00075.00024.00022.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.038 (3.79%)14.691
M≥422.7218.00060.00019.00016.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.038 (3.79%)11.674
M≥4.118.0456.00048.00015.00013.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.99% 100.00%]0.038 (3.79%)9.271
M≥4.214.3234.00039.00012.00010.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.038 (3.79%)7.354
M≥4.311.3633.00032.0009.0008.0000.999 (99.94%)[99.92% 99.95%]0.038 (3.79%)5.830
M≥4.49.0212.00026.0007.0006.0000.997 (99.71%)[99.67% 99.74%]0.038 (3.79%)4.630
M≥4.57.1521.00021.0006.0005.0000.991 (99.05%)[98.99% 99.11%]0.038 (3.79%)3.674
M≥4.65.6731.00017.0005.0004.0000.976 (97.61%)[97.51% 97.70%]0.038 (3.79%)2.914
M≥4.74.5020.00014.0004.0003.0000.950 (95.04%)[94.91% 95.18%]0.038 (3.79%)2.312
M≥4.83.5670.00012.0003.0002.0000.911 (91.12%)[90.94% 91.30%]0.038 (3.79%)1.832
M≥4.92.8190.00010.0002.0001.0000.856 (85.64%)[85.42% 85.86%]0.038 (3.79%)1.449
M≥52.2270.0008.0002.0001.0000.789 (78.91%)[78.66% 79.16%]0.038 (3.79%)1.144
M≥5.11.7590.0007.0001.0001.0000.713 (71.27%)[70.99% 71.55%]0.038 (3.79%)0.901
M≥5.21.3880.0006.0001.0000.0000.632 (63.19%)[62.89% 63.49%]0.038 (3.79%)0.710
M≥5.31.0930.0005.0001.0000.0000.551 (55.14%)[54.83% 55.44%]0.038 (3.79%)0.558
M≥5.40.8580.0004.0000.0000.0000.472 (47.21%)[46.90% 47.52%]0.038 (3.79%)0.437
M≥5.50.6750.0004.0000.0000.0000.399 (39.89%)[39.59% 40.19%]0.038 (3.79%)0.343
M≥5.60.5260.0003.0000.0000.0000.332 (33.17%)[32.88% 33.46%]0.038 (3.79%)0.266
M≥5.70.4080.0003.0000.0000.0000.273 (27.27%)[26.99% 27.54%]0.038 (3.79%)0.205
M≥5.80.3160.0002.0000.0000.0000.221 (22.09%)[21.83% 22.34%]0.038 (3.79%)0.157
M≥5.90.2420.0002.0000.0000.0000.177 (17.71%)[17.48% 17.95%]0.038 (3.79%)0.120
M≥60.1900.0002.0000.0000.0000.144 (14.37%)[14.15% 14.59%]0.038 (3.79%)0.093
M≥6.10.1370.0001.0000.0000.0000.108 (10.83%)[10.64% 11.02%]0.025 (2.46%)0.068
M≥6.20.1000.0001.0000.0000.0000.083 (8.28%)[8.11% 8.45%]0.020 (2.00%)0.050
M≥6.30.0730.0001.0000.0000.0000.062 (6.23%)[6.08% 6.38%]0.015 (1.55%)0.037
M≥6.40.0540.0001.0000.0000.0000.047 (4.66%)[4.53% 4.79%]0.013 (1.29%)0.027
M≥6.50.0390.0001.0000.0000.0000.035 (3.46%)[3.35% 3.57%]0.010 (1.04%)0.019
M≥6.60.0290.0001.0000.0000.0000.026 (2.60%)[2.51% 2.70%]9.00E-3 (0.90%)0.014
M≥6.70.0210.0000.0000.0000.0000.019 (1.89%)[1.80% 1.97%]7.09E-3 (0.71%)9.76E-3
M≥6.80.0150.0000.0000.0000.0000.014 (1.38%)[1.31% 1.45%]6.04E-3 (0.60%)6.92E-3
M≥6.90.0100.0000.0000.0000.0009.59E-3 (0.96%)[0.90% 1.02%]4.63E-3 (0.46%)4.56E-3
M≥77.13E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.83E-3 (0.68%)[0.63% 0.74%]3.78E-3 (0.38%)3.07E-3
M≥7.15.14E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.97E-3 (0.50%)[0.45% 0.54%]3.34E-3 (0.33%)2.03E-3
M≥7.23.75E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.66E-3 (0.37%)[0.33% 0.41%]2.76E-3 (0.28%)1.43E-3
M≥7.32.54E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.47E-3 (0.25%)[0.22% 0.28%]2.08E-3 (0.21%)9.50E-4
M≥7.42.05E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.99E-3 (0.20%)[0.17% 0.23%]1.85E-3 (0.18%)7.40E-4
M≥7.51.54E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.48E-3 (0.15%)[0.13% 0.17%]1.45E-3 (0.14%)5.60E-4
M≥7.67.70E-40.0000.0000.0000.0007.40E-4 (0.07%)[0.06% 0.09%]7.20E-4 (0.07%)2.70E-4
M≥7.72.80E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.70E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]2.60E-4 (0.03%)9.00E-5
M≥7.82.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]1.90E-4 (0.02%)7.00E-5
M≥7.91.40E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.40E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)3.00E-5
M≥83.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0003.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]3.00E-5 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Month Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 mo Probability1 mo Prob 95% Conf1 mo Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5513.830352.0001121.000438.000409.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.026 (2.61%)308.642
M≥2.6408.072276.000889.000348.000325.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.026 (2.61%)245.111
M≥2.7324.117216.000707.000277.000253.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.026 (2.61%)194.670
M≥2.8257.411169.000561.000221.000203.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.026 (2.61%)154.602
M≥2.9204.454132.000447.000176.000165.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.026 (2.61%)122.807
M≥3162.433103.000356.000140.000130.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.026 (2.61%)97.565
M≥3.1129.02879.000283.000111.000104.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.026 (2.61%)77.492
M≥3.2102.48861.000226.00088.00082.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.026 (2.61%)61.554
M≥3.381.42747.000180.00070.00065.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.026 (2.61%)48.884
M≥3.464.68136.000144.00056.00053.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.026 (2.61%)38.830
M≥3.551.38327.000115.00045.00039.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.026 (2.61%)30.836
M≥3.640.79121.00092.00035.00032.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.026 (2.61%)24.472
M≥3.732.38915.00074.00028.00026.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.026 (2.61%)19.435
M≥3.825.72311.00059.00022.00020.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.026 (2.61%)15.433
M≥3.920.4238.00048.00018.00016.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.026 (2.61%)12.249
M≥416.2266.00039.00014.00012.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.026 (2.61%)9.734
M≥4.112.8874.00031.00011.0009.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.98% 99.99%]0.026 (2.61%)7.730
M≥4.210.2303.00026.0009.0007.0000.999 (99.92%)[99.91% 99.94%]0.026 (2.61%)6.132
M≥4.38.1142.00021.0007.0006.0000.997 (99.69%)[99.65% 99.72%]0.026 (2.61%)4.862
M≥4.46.4421.00017.0005.0005.0000.990 (99.03%)[98.97% 99.09%]0.026 (2.61%)3.862
M≥4.55.1101.00014.0004.0003.0000.976 (97.56%)[97.46% 97.65%]0.026 (2.61%)3.064
M≥4.64.0540.00012.0003.0003.0000.949 (94.89%)[94.75% 95.03%]0.026 (2.61%)2.431
M≥4.73.2170.00010.0003.0002.0000.908 (90.79%)[90.61% 90.97%]0.026 (2.61%)1.928
M≥4.82.5470.0008.0002.0001.0000.852 (85.25%)[85.03% 85.47%]0.026 (2.61%)1.526
M≥4.92.0130.0007.0002.0001.0000.783 (78.31%)[78.06% 78.57%]0.026 (2.61%)1.207
M≥51.5910.0006.0001.0001.0000.706 (70.60%)[70.31% 70.88%]0.026 (2.61%)0.953
M≥5.11.2550.0005.0001.0000.0000.624 (62.39%)[62.09% 62.69%]0.026 (2.61%)0.751
M≥5.20.9900.0004.0001.0000.0000.542 (54.17%)[53.86% 54.48%]0.026 (2.61%)0.592
M≥5.30.7810.0004.0000.0000.0000.464 (46.40%)[46.09% 46.71%]0.026 (2.61%)0.466
M≥5.40.6130.0003.0000.0000.0000.391 (39.05%)[38.75% 39.35%]0.026 (2.61%)0.365
M≥5.50.4820.0003.0000.0000.0000.325 (32.49%)[32.20% 32.78%]0.026 (2.61%)0.286
M≥5.60.3750.0002.0000.0000.0000.266 (26.64%)[26.37% 26.92%]0.026 (2.61%)0.222
M≥5.70.2900.0002.0000.0000.0000.216 (21.61%)[21.35% 21.86%]0.026 (2.61%)0.172
M≥5.80.2240.0002.0000.0000.0000.173 (17.27%)[17.03% 17.50%]0.026 (2.61%)0.131
M≥5.90.1720.0002.0000.0000.0000.137 (13.66%)[13.44% 13.87%]0.026 (2.61%)0.100
M≥60.1350.0001.0000.0000.0000.110 (10.98%)[10.79% 11.17%]0.026 (2.61%)0.078
M≥6.10.0980.0001.0000.0000.0000.082 (8.23%)[8.06% 8.40%]0.017 (1.67%)0.057
M≥6.20.0710.0001.0000.0000.0000.062 (6.21%)[6.06% 6.36%]0.013 (1.35%)0.042
M≥6.30.0530.0001.0000.0000.0000.047 (4.67%)[4.54% 4.80%]0.010 (1.04%)0.031
M≥6.40.0390.0001.0000.0000.0000.035 (3.46%)[3.35% 3.58%]8.73E-3 (0.87%)0.022
M≥6.50.0280.0001.0000.0000.0000.025 (2.54%)[2.44% 2.64%]6.93E-3 (0.69%)0.016
M≥6.60.0200.0000.0000.0000.0000.019 (1.88%)[1.80% 1.97%]5.92E-3 (0.59%)0.012
M≥6.70.0150.0000.0000.0000.0000.014 (1.35%)[1.28% 1.43%]4.59E-3 (0.46%)8.15E-3
M≥6.80.0100.0000.0000.0000.0009.68E-3 (0.97%)[0.91% 1.03%]3.88E-3 (0.39%)5.79E-3
M≥6.96.96E-30.0000.0000.0000.0006.75E-3 (0.68%)[0.63% 0.73%]2.99E-3 (0.30%)3.82E-3
M≥74.89E-30.0000.0000.0000.0004.75E-3 (0.47%)[0.43% 0.52%]2.47E-3 (0.25%)2.53E-3
M≥7.13.41E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.33E-3 (0.33%)[0.30% 0.37%]2.17E-3 (0.22%)1.66E-3
M≥7.22.45E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.42E-3 (0.24%)[0.21% 0.27%]1.79E-3 (0.18%)1.13E-3
M≥7.31.67E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.65E-3 (0.17%)[0.14% 0.19%]1.39E-3 (0.14%)7.20E-4
M≥7.41.36E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.34E-3 (0.13%)[0.11% 0.16%]1.26E-3 (0.13%)5.70E-4
M≥7.51.00E-30.0000.0000.0000.0009.80E-4 (0.10%)[0.08% 0.12%]9.60E-4 (0.10%)4.20E-4
M≥7.65.50E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.40E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]5.30E-4 (0.05%)2.20E-4
M≥7.71.80E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.80E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]1.80E-4 (0.02%)6.00E-5
M≥7.81.30E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.30E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.30E-4 (0.01%)4.00E-5
M≥7.91.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)2.00E-5
M≥82.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Week Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 wk Probability1 wk Prob 95% Conf1 wk Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5405.967290.000804.000357.000342.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.020 (2.01%)267.548
M≥2.6322.400228.000640.000284.000270.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.020 (2.01%)212.468
M≥2.7256.049178.000508.000226.000212.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.020 (2.01%)168.738
M≥2.8203.345139.000405.000180.000171.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.020 (2.01%)134.003
M≥2.9161.500108.000322.000143.000135.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.020 (2.01%)106.433
M≥3128.30684.000257.000114.000108.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.020 (2.01%)84.559
M≥3.1101.91565.000205.00091.00083.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.020 (2.01%)67.157
M≥3.280.94850.000163.00072.00069.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.020 (2.01%)53.342
M≥3.364.31238.000130.00057.00054.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.020 (2.01%)42.363
M≥3.451.09629.000104.00046.00043.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.020 (2.01%)33.654
M≥3.540.58822.00083.00036.00034.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.020 (2.01%)26.731
M≥3.632.22116.00067.00029.00027.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.020 (2.01%)21.215
M≥3.725.58112.00054.00023.00020.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.020 (2.01%)16.845
M≥3.820.3129.00044.00018.00016.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.020 (2.01%)13.377
M≥3.916.1216.00035.00014.00014.0001.000 (100.00%)[99.99% 100.00%]0.020 (2.01%)10.613
M≥412.8114.00029.00011.00011.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.98% 99.99%]0.020 (2.01%)8.434
M≥4.110.1753.00023.0009.0008.0001.000 (99.96%)[99.94% 99.97%]0.020 (2.01%)6.698
M≥4.28.0752.00019.0007.0006.0000.998 (99.78%)[99.75% 99.81%]0.020 (2.01%)5.313
M≥4.36.4041.00016.0006.0005.0000.993 (99.26%)[99.20% 99.31%]0.020 (2.01%)4.211
M≥4.45.0871.00013.0004.0004.0000.980 (97.95%)[97.86% 98.04%]0.020 (2.01%)3.347
M≥4.54.0340.00011.0003.0003.0000.955 (95.54%)[95.41% 95.67%]0.020 (2.01%)2.654
M≥4.63.2000.0009.0003.0002.0000.917 (91.71%)[91.53% 91.88%]0.020 (2.01%)2.105
M≥4.72.5390.0008.0002.0001.0000.863 (86.34%)[86.12% 86.55%]0.020 (2.01%)1.669
M≥4.82.0110.0007.0002.0001.0000.797 (79.74%)[79.49% 79.99%]0.020 (2.01%)1.322
M≥4.91.5890.0006.0001.0001.0000.720 (71.99%)[71.71% 72.27%]0.020 (2.01%)1.045
M≥51.2570.0005.0001.0000.0000.638 (63.85%)[63.55% 64.14%]0.020 (2.01%)0.826
M≥5.10.9910.0004.0001.0000.0000.556 (55.60%)[55.29% 55.91%]0.020 (2.01%)0.651
M≥5.20.7810.0004.0000.0000.0000.476 (47.57%)[47.26% 47.88%]0.020 (2.01%)0.513
M≥5.30.6160.0003.0000.0000.0000.402 (40.19%)[39.89% 40.50%]0.020 (2.01%)0.404
M≥5.40.4840.0003.0000.0000.0000.335 (33.50%)[33.21% 33.80%]0.020 (2.01%)0.316
M≥5.50.3800.0002.0000.0000.0000.276 (27.65%)[27.37% 27.93%]0.020 (2.01%)0.247
M≥5.60.2950.0002.0000.0000.0000.225 (22.46%)[22.20% 22.72%]0.020 (2.01%)0.192
M≥5.70.2280.0002.0000.0000.0000.180 (18.04%)[17.80% 18.28%]0.020 (2.01%)0.149
M≥5.80.1760.0001.0000.0000.0000.143 (14.28%)[14.06% 14.50%]0.020 (2.01%)0.114
M≥5.90.1350.0001.0000.0000.0000.112 (11.20%)[11.01% 11.40%]0.020 (2.01%)0.086
M≥60.1050.0001.0000.0000.0000.089 (8.94%)[8.77% 9.12%]0.020 (2.00%)0.067
M≥6.10.0770.0001.0000.0000.0000.067 (6.69%)[6.54% 6.85%]0.013 (1.29%)0.050
M≥6.20.0560.0001.0000.0000.0000.050 (5.03%)[4.90% 5.17%]0.010 (1.04%)0.036
M≥6.30.0410.0001.0000.0000.0000.038 (3.77%)[3.65% 3.89%]8.04E-3 (0.80%)0.027
M≥6.40.0300.0001.0000.0000.0000.028 (2.79%)[2.68% 2.89%]6.65E-3 (0.66%)0.019
M≥6.50.0220.0000.0000.0000.0000.020 (2.01%)[1.92% 2.10%]5.15E-3 (0.52%)0.014
M≥6.60.0160.0000.0000.0000.0000.015 (1.49%)[1.41% 1.57%]4.35E-3 (0.43%)9.87E-3
M≥6.70.0110.0000.0000.0000.0000.011 (1.05%)[0.99% 1.12%]3.29E-3 (0.33%)6.94E-3
M≥6.87.83E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.49E-3 (0.75%)[0.70% 0.80%]2.85E-3 (0.29%)4.97E-3
M≥6.95.26E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.14E-3 (0.51%)[0.47% 0.56%]2.19E-3 (0.22%)3.24E-3
M≥73.62E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.54E-3 (0.35%)[0.32% 0.39%]1.78E-3 (0.18%)2.11E-3
M≥7.12.59E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.55E-3 (0.26%)[0.23% 0.29%]1.60E-3 (0.16%)1.41E-3
M≥7.21.86E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.84E-3 (0.18%)[0.16% 0.21%]1.34E-3 (0.13%)9.50E-4
M≥7.31.22E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.21E-3 (0.12%)[0.10% 0.15%]1.01E-3 (0.10%)5.90E-4
M≥7.41.00E-30.0000.0000.0000.0009.90E-4 (0.10%)[0.08% 0.12%]9.30E-4 (0.09%)4.80E-4
M≥7.57.80E-40.0000.0000.0000.0007.70E-4 (0.08%)[0.06% 0.10%]7.60E-4 (0.08%)3.70E-4
M≥7.64.50E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.40E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]4.30E-4 (0.04%)1.90E-4
M≥7.71.40E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.40E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)4.00E-5
M≥7.81.20E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)3.00E-5
M≥7.91.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)2.00E-5
M≥82.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Day Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 d Probability1 d Prob 95% Conf1 d Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.5275.669207.000480.000253.000239.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.28%)205.781
M≥2.6218.917162.000382.000201.000195.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.28%)163.417
M≥2.7173.873126.000304.000160.000156.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.28%)129.783
M≥2.8138.08098.000242.000127.000122.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.28%)103.064
M≥2.9109.65776.000193.000101.00094.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.28%)81.854
M≥387.12559.000155.00080.00079.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.28%)65.028
M≥3.169.21345.000123.00064.00062.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.28%)51.654
M≥3.254.96534.00099.00051.00049.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.28%)41.018
M≥3.343.67426.00079.00040.00039.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.28%)32.584
M≥3.434.70020.00064.00032.00031.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.28%)25.888
M≥3.527.56815.00051.00025.00023.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.28%)20.567
M≥3.621.88711.00042.00020.00019.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.28%)16.326
M≥3.717.3768.00034.00016.00015.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.28%)12.963
M≥3.813.8006.00027.00013.00012.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]0.013 (1.28%)10.295
M≥3.910.9484.00023.00010.0009.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.98% 100.00%]0.013 (1.28%)8.166
M≥48.7003.00019.0008.0007.0000.999 (99.92%)[99.90% 99.94%]0.013 (1.28%)6.490
M≥4.16.9092.00015.0006.0006.0000.997 (99.71%)[99.67% 99.74%]0.013 (1.28%)5.153
M≥4.25.4811.00013.0005.0004.0000.989 (98.94%)[98.87% 99.00%]0.013 (1.28%)4.089
M≥4.34.3440.00011.0004.0003.0000.974 (97.36%)[97.26% 97.46%]0.013 (1.28%)3.239
M≥4.43.4530.0009.0003.0002.0000.944 (94.42%)[94.27% 94.56%]0.013 (1.28%)2.576
M≥4.52.7410.0008.0002.0002.0000.900 (90.01%)[89.82% 90.19%]0.013 (1.28%)2.044
M≥4.62.1740.0007.0002.0001.0000.840 (84.02%)[83.79% 84.24%]0.013 (1.28%)1.620
M≥4.71.7240.0006.0001.0001.0000.769 (76.85%)[76.59% 77.11%]0.013 (1.28%)1.285
M≥4.81.3660.0005.0001.0001.0000.689 (68.94%)[68.65% 69.22%]0.013 (1.28%)1.018
M≥4.91.0790.0004.0001.0000.0000.606 (60.56%)[60.25% 60.86%]0.013 (1.28%)0.805
M≥50.8530.0004.0001.0000.0000.524 (52.40%)[52.08% 52.70%]0.013 (1.28%)0.635
M≥5.10.6720.0003.0000.0000.0000.445 (44.52%)[44.22% 44.83%]0.013 (1.28%)0.500
M≥5.20.5290.0003.0000.0000.0000.373 (37.25%)[36.95% 37.55%]0.013 (1.28%)0.394
M≥5.30.4170.0002.0000.0000.0000.309 (30.92%)[30.64% 31.21%]0.013 (1.28%)0.310
M≥5.40.3280.0002.0000.0000.0000.254 (25.39%)[25.12% 25.66%]0.013 (1.28%)0.242
M≥5.50.2560.0002.0000.0000.0000.206 (20.63%)[20.38% 20.88%]0.013 (1.28%)0.189
M≥5.60.2000.0002.0000.0000.0000.166 (16.58%)[16.35% 16.81%]0.013 (1.28%)0.147
M≥5.70.1550.0001.0000.0000.0000.132 (13.22%)[13.01% 13.43%]0.013 (1.28%)0.114
M≥5.80.1190.0001.0000.0000.0000.104 (10.37%)[10.18% 10.56%]0.013 (1.28%)0.087
M≥5.90.0910.0001.0000.0000.0000.081 (8.08%)[7.91% 8.25%]0.013 (1.28%)0.066
M≥60.0720.0001.0000.0000.0000.064 (6.41%)[6.26% 6.56%]0.013 (1.28%)0.052
M≥6.10.0520.0001.0000.0000.0000.048 (4.76%)[4.63% 4.90%]8.25E-3 (0.83%)0.038
M≥6.20.0380.0001.0000.0000.0000.035 (3.54%)[3.42% 3.65%]6.67E-3 (0.67%)0.028
M≥6.30.0280.0001.0000.0000.0000.026 (2.64%)[2.54% 2.74%]5.12E-3 (0.51%)0.021
M≥6.40.0210.0000.0000.0000.0000.019 (1.93%)[1.85% 2.02%]4.15E-3 (0.41%)0.015
M≥6.50.0150.0000.0000.0000.0000.014 (1.40%)[1.33% 1.47%]3.26E-3 (0.33%)0.011
M≥6.60.0110.0000.0000.0000.0000.010 (1.04%)[0.98% 1.10%]2.73E-3 (0.27%)7.73E-3
M≥6.77.52E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.24E-3 (0.72%)[0.67% 0.78%]2.11E-3 (0.21%)5.47E-3
M≥6.85.35E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.17E-3 (0.52%)[0.47% 0.56%]1.82E-3 (0.18%)4.00E-3
M≥6.93.53E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.50E-3 (0.35%)[0.31% 0.39%]1.37E-3 (0.14%)2.55E-3
M≥72.44E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.42E-3 (0.24%)[0.21% 0.27%]1.11E-3 (0.11%)1.68E-3
M≥7.11.65E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.64E-3 (0.16%)[0.14% 0.19%]9.80E-4 (0.10%)1.09E-3
M≥7.21.17E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.17E-3 (0.12%)[0.10% 0.14%]8.10E-4 (0.08%)7.40E-4
M≥7.37.40E-40.0000.0000.0000.0007.40E-4 (0.07%)[0.06% 0.09%]5.80E-4 (0.06%)4.50E-4
M≥7.46.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0006.00E-4 (0.06%)[0.05% 0.08%]5.30E-4 (0.05%)3.60E-4
M≥7.54.40E-40.0000.0000.0000.0004.40E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]4.20E-4 (0.04%)2.70E-4
M≥7.62.50E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.50E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]2.30E-4 (0.02%)1.50E-4
M≥7.76.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0006.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]6.00E-5 (0.01%)3.00E-5
M≥7.85.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0005.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]5.00E-5 (0.01%)2.00E-5
M≥7.94.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0004.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)1.00E-5
M≥80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

1 Hour Magnitude Number Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianMode1 hr Probability1 hr Prob 95% Conf1 hr Supra-Seis ProbPrimary Aftershocks Mean
M≥2.599.74476.000134.00097.00096.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)90.518
M≥2.679.20559.000108.00077.00076.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)71.875
M≥2.762.90445.00087.00061.00060.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)57.079
M≥2.849.95235.00070.00049.00047.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)45.331
M≥2.939.66926.00057.00039.00039.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)36.001
M≥331.51320.00047.00031.00030.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)28.598
M≥3.125.03315.00038.00024.00024.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)22.718
M≥3.219.87411.00031.00019.00019.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)18.033
M≥3.315.7848.00026.00015.00015.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)14.320
M≥3.412.5376.00021.00012.00012.0001.000 (100.00%)[100.00% 100.00%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)11.372
M≥3.59.9614.00018.00010.0009.0001.000 (99.99%)[99.98% 100.00%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)9.035
M≥3.67.9093.00015.0008.0007.0000.999 (99.94%)[99.92% 99.95%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)7.173
M≥3.76.2762.00012.0006.0006.0000.997 (99.69%)[99.66% 99.73%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)5.691
M≥3.84.9831.00010.0005.0004.0000.990 (99.01%)[98.95% 99.07%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)4.519
M≥3.93.9510.0009.0004.0003.0000.974 (97.44%)[97.34% 97.54%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)3.583
M≥43.1390.0007.0003.0002.0000.947 (94.67%)[94.53% 94.81%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)2.848
M≥4.12.4940.0006.0002.0002.0000.903 (90.33%)[90.14% 90.51%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)2.263
M≥4.21.9780.0005.0002.0001.0000.844 (84.37%)[84.15% 84.60%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)1.795
M≥4.31.5670.0005.0001.0001.0000.772 (77.16%)[76.90% 77.42%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)1.421
M≥4.41.2470.0004.0001.0001.0000.692 (69.18%)[68.89% 69.46%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)1.132
M≥4.50.9910.0004.0001.0000.0000.608 (60.78%)[60.48% 61.08%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)0.900
M≥4.60.7870.0003.0001.0000.0000.524 (52.44%)[52.13% 52.75%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)0.714
M≥4.70.6240.0003.0000.0000.0000.447 (44.72%)[44.41% 45.02%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)0.566
M≥4.80.4930.0002.0000.0000.0000.376 (37.57%)[37.27% 37.87%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)0.448
M≥4.90.3910.0002.0000.0000.0000.312 (31.19%)[30.90% 31.48%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)0.355
M≥50.3090.0002.0000.0000.0000.256 (25.64%)[25.36% 25.91%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)0.281
M≥5.10.2440.0002.0000.0000.0000.209 (20.88%)[20.63% 21.14%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)0.221
M≥5.20.1920.0001.0000.0000.0000.169 (16.89%)[16.66% 17.12%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)0.175
M≥5.30.1520.0001.0000.0000.0000.136 (13.64%)[13.43% 13.85%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)0.138
M≥5.40.1190.0001.0000.0000.0000.109 (10.85%)[10.66% 11.05%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)0.108
M≥5.50.0940.0001.0000.0000.0000.087 (8.68%)[8.51% 8.86%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)0.085
M≥5.60.0720.0001.0000.0000.0000.068 (6.81%)[6.65% 6.97%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)0.066
M≥5.70.0560.0001.0000.0000.0000.053 (5.32%)[5.18% 5.46%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)0.051
M≥5.80.0430.0001.0000.0000.0000.042 (4.16%)[4.04% 4.29%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)0.039
M≥5.90.0330.0001.0000.0000.0000.032 (3.22%)[3.11% 3.33%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)0.030
M≥60.0260.0001.0000.0000.0000.025 (2.53%)[2.43% 2.63%]4.32E-3 (0.43%)0.024
M≥6.10.0190.0000.0000.0000.0000.019 (1.86%)[1.78% 1.95%]2.78E-3 (0.28%)0.017
M≥6.20.0140.0000.0000.0000.0000.014 (1.37%)[1.30% 1.44%]2.24E-3 (0.22%)0.013
M≥6.30.0100.0000.0000.0000.0000.010 (1.01%)[0.95% 1.08%]1.63E-3 (0.16%)9.37E-3
M≥6.47.45E-30.0000.0000.0000.0007.32E-3 (0.73%)[0.68% 0.79%]1.26E-3 (0.13%)6.72E-3
M≥6.55.37E-30.0000.0000.0000.0005.28E-3 (0.53%)[0.48% 0.58%]1.00E-3 (0.10%)4.83E-3
M≥6.63.94E-30.0000.0000.0000.0003.89E-3 (0.39%)[0.35% 0.43%]8.20E-4 (0.08%)3.55E-3
M≥6.72.75E-30.0000.0000.0000.0002.71E-3 (0.27%)[0.24% 0.31%]6.40E-4 (0.06%)2.51E-3
M≥6.81.95E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.93E-3 (0.19%)[0.17% 0.22%]5.50E-4 (0.06%)1.84E-3
M≥6.91.27E-30.0000.0000.0000.0001.27E-3 (0.13%)[0.11% 0.15%]4.30E-4 (0.04%)1.18E-3
M≥78.40E-40.0000.0000.0000.0008.40E-4 (0.08%)[0.07% 0.10%]3.50E-4 (0.03%)7.50E-4
M≥7.15.00E-40.0000.0000.0000.0005.00E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]3.10E-4 (0.03%)4.50E-4
M≥7.23.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0003.60E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.05%]2.60E-4 (0.03%)3.10E-4
M≥7.32.50E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.50E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]2.20E-4 (0.02%)2.00E-4
M≥7.42.10E-40.0000.0000.0000.0002.10E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)1.70E-4
M≥7.51.60E-40.0000.0000.0000.0001.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)1.30E-4
M≥7.67.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0007.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]7.00E-5 (0.01%)6.00E-5
M≥7.72.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)1.00E-5
M≥7.82.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0002.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)1.00E-5
M≥7.91.00E-50.0000.0000.0000.0001.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)0.000
M≥80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.10.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.20.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.30.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]0.000 (0.00%)0.000

Hazard Change Over Time

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These plots show how the probability of ruptures of various magnitudes within 100km of any scenario rupture changes over time

M≥5.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard Change

Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour0.255 [0.252 - 0.257]0.2545.52E-54610.645.47E-5
1 Day0.521 [0.518 - 0.524]0.5211.32E-3393.721.31E-3
1 Week0.638 [0.635 - 0.641]0.6359.23E-369.159.16E-3
1 Month0.714 [0.711 - 0.717]0.7030.03918.330.039
1 Year0.868 [0.867 - 0.870]0.7860.3842.260.381
10 Years0.999 [0.999 - 0.999]0.8390.9921.010.992
30 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **1.0001 *1.000
100 Years1.000 [1.000 - 1.000] **1.0001 *1.000

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥6.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard Change

Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour0.025 [0.024 - 0.026]0.0256.60E-63782.36.15E-6
1 Day0.063 [0.062 - 0.065]0.0631.58E-4400.221.48E-4
1 Week0.089 [0.088 - 0.091]0.0881.11E-380.531.03E-3
1 Month0.113 [0.111 - 0.115]0.1084.74E-323.744.42E-3
1 Year0.190 [0.188 - 0.192]0.1420.0563.380.052
10 Years0.536 [0.535 - 0.537]0.1720.4401.220.417
30 Years0.855 [0.855 - 0.855] **0.8251.04 *0.801
100 Years0.998 [0.998 - 0.998] **0.9971 *0.995

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥7.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard Change

Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour8.31E-4 [6.66E-4 - 1.03E-3]8.30E-46.47E-71283.175.84E-7
1 Day2.41E-3 [2.12E-3 - 2.73E-3]2.39E-31.55E-5154.831.40E-5
1 Week3.59E-3 [3.24E-3 - 3.98E-3]3.48E-31.09E-4339.81E-5
1 Month5.12E-3 [4.72E-3 - 5.57E-3]4.66E-34.66E-4114.20E-4
1 Year0.012 [0.012 - 0.013]6.68E-35.66E-32.175.10E-3
10 Years0.064 [0.063 - 0.064]8.96E-30.0551.150.050
30 Years0.166 [0.166 - 0.167] **0.1591.05 *0.142
100 Years0.457 [0.457 - 0.458] **0.4521.01 *0.401

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

M≥8.0 Hazard Change Over Time

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Hazard Change

Forecast DurationUCERF3-ETAS [95% Conf]UCERF3-ETAS Triggered OnlyUCERF3-TDUCERF3-ETAS/TD GainUCERF3-TI
1 Hour1.24E-8 [1.24E-8 - 4.79E-5]0.0001.24E-811.06E-8
1 Day2.97E-7 [2.97E-7 - 4.82E-5]0.0002.97E-712.54E-7
1 Week1.21E-5 [2.60E-6 - 6.70E-5]1.00E-52.08E-65.811.78E-6
1 Month1.89E-5 [9.43E-6 - 7.39E-5]1.00E-58.90E-62.127.63E-6
1 Year1.28E-4 [1.12E-4 - 1.89E-4]2.00E-51.08E-41.189.29E-5
10 Years1.12E-3 [1.10E-3 - 1.18E-3]2.00E-51.10E-31.029.29E-4
30 Years3.52E-3 [3.51E-3 - 3.58E-3] **3.50E-31.01 *2.78E-3
100 Years0.014 [0.014 - 0.014] **0.0141 *9.25E-3

* forecast duration is longer than simulation length, only ETAS ruptures from the first 10 years are included

Trigger Rupture Fault Map

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Map

Fault Distances To Triggers

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Section NameStrike, Dip, RakeHypocenter In Polygon?Surface In Polygon?Minimum Distance (km)Minimum Poly Distance (km)
Airport Lake358, 50, -90falsefalse12.3912.343
Little Lake327, 90, 180falsefalse16.5924.590
Tank Canyon189, 50, -90falsefalse17.24117.235

Individual Simulated Catalog Maps

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These are map plots of individual catalogs from the simulations, selected as the closest catalog to each of the given percentiles in terms of total number of events.

Durationp0.0 %-ilep25.0 %-ilep50.0 %-ilep75.0 %-ilep90.0 %-ilep95.0 %-ilep97.5 %-ilep98.0 %-ilep99.0 %-ilep99.5 %-ilep99.9 %-ilep100.0 %-ile
1 WeekMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap
1 MonthMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap
1 YearMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap
10 YearMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMapMap

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min Mag1 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)10 yr Triggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)10 yr Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 128 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
Tank Canyon0.035677.22E-3 (0.72%)[0.67% 0.78%]0.011 (1.14%)[1.07% 1.20%]0.015 (1.51%)[1.44% 1.59%]0.022 (2.24%)[2.15% 2.34%]0.031 (3.07%)[2.96% 3.18%]0.00916
Garlock (Central)0.009952.18E-3 (0.22%)[0.19% 0.25%]3.36E-3 (0.34%)[0.30% 0.37%]4.45E-3 (0.45%)[0.41% 0.49%]6.84E-3 (0.68%)[0.63% 0.74%]9.72E-3 (0.97%)[0.91% 1.04%]0.00266
Panamint Valley0.005059.10E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.52E-3 (0.15%)[0.13% 0.18%]2.13E-3 (0.21%)[0.19% 0.24%]3.37E-3 (0.34%)[0.30% 0.38%]5.00E-3 (0.50%)[0.46% 0.55%]0.00118
Owl Lake0.004589.10E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.38E-3 (0.14%)[0.12% 0.16%]1.87E-3 (0.19%)[0.16% 0.22%]2.90E-3 (0.29%)[0.26% 0.33%]3.97E-3 (0.40%)[0.36% 0.44%]7.3E-4
Little Lake0.002999.60E-4 (0.10%)[0.08% 0.12%]1.36E-3 (0.14%)[0.11% 0.16%]1.66E-3 (0.17%)[0.14% 0.19%]2.35E-3 (0.24%)[0.21% 0.27%]2.96E-3 (0.30%)[0.26% 0.33%]0.00132
Garlock (East)0.002784.60E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.06%]6.90E-4 (0.07%)[0.05% 0.09%]1.00E-3 (0.10%)[0.08% 0.12%]1.64E-3 (0.16%)[0.14% 0.19%]2.52E-3 (0.25%)[0.22% 0.29%]4.3E-4
Blackwater0.002275.50E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.07%]8.90E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.01E-3 (0.10%)[0.08% 0.12%]1.60E-3 (0.16%)[0.14% 0.19%]2.17E-3 (0.22%)[0.19% 0.25%]6.2E-4
Ash Hill0.001833.30E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.05%]5.90E-4 (0.06%)[0.05% 0.08%]8.20E-4 (0.08%)[0.07% 0.10%]1.28E-3 (0.13%)[0.11% 0.15%]1.76E-3 (0.18%)[0.15% 0.20%]3.7E-4
Hunter Mountain-Saline Valley0.001442.90E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]4.90E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]6.70E-4 (0.07%)[0.05% 0.09%]1.01E-3 (0.10%)[0.08% 0.12%]1.41E-3 (0.14%)[0.12% 0.17%]4.2E-4
Gravel Hills-Harper Lk0.00132.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.02% 0.04%]4.30E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]6.40E-4 (0.06%)[0.05% 0.08%]9.20E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.24E-3 (0.12%)[0.10% 0.15%]3.1E-4

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 98 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
Panamint Valley0.00478.50E-4 (0.08%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.43E-3 (0.14%)[0.12% 0.17%]1.98E-3 (0.20%)[0.17% 0.23%]3.19E-3 (0.32%)[0.29% 0.36%]4.66E-3 (0.47%)[0.43% 0.51%]0.00111
Garlock (Central)0.004379.70E-4 (0.10%)[0.08% 0.12%]1.51E-3 (0.15%)[0.13% 0.18%]2.09E-3 (0.21%)[0.18% 0.24%]3.16E-3 (0.32%)[0.28% 0.35%]4.34E-3 (0.43%)[0.39% 0.48%]0.00117
Tank Canyon0.004218.50E-4 (0.08%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.39E-3 (0.14%)[0.12% 0.16%]1.89E-3 (0.19%)[0.16% 0.22%]2.93E-3 (0.29%)[0.26% 0.33%]4.18E-3 (0.42%)[0.38% 0.46%]0.00116
Owl Lake0.001924.70E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.06%]6.60E-4 (0.07%)[0.05% 0.08%]8.80E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.43E-3 (0.14%)[0.12% 0.17%]1.92E-3 (0.19%)[0.17% 0.22%]3.7E-4
Garlock (East)0.001652.90E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]4.60E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.06%]7.10E-4 (0.07%)[0.06% 0.09%]1.05E-3 (0.10%)[0.09% 0.13%]1.55E-3 (0.15%)[0.13% 0.18%]3.0E-4
Hunter Mountain-Saline Valley0.001382.60E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]4.50E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]6.30E-4 (0.06%)[0.05% 0.08%]9.70E-4 (0.10%)[0.08% 0.12%]1.36E-3 (0.14%)[0.11% 0.16%]3.8E-4
Little Lake0.00134.20E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]6.10E-4 (0.06%)[0.05% 0.08%]7.70E-4 (0.08%)[0.06% 0.10%]1.07E-3 (0.11%)[0.09% 0.13%]1.30E-3 (0.13%)[0.11% 0.15%]5.4E-4
Garlock (West)8.7E-42.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]3.60E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.05%]4.40E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]6.20E-4 (0.06%)[0.05% 0.08%]8.70E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]2.4E-4
Airport Lake8.6E-42.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]3.70E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.05%]4.90E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]7.00E-4 (0.07%)[0.05% 0.09%]8.60E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]4.1E-4
Death Valley (So)5.3E-47.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]3.30E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.05%]5.10E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]4.0E-5

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 56 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
Garlock (Central)0.003848.50E-4 (0.08%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.33E-3 (0.13%)[0.11% 0.16%]1.83E-3 (0.18%)[0.16% 0.21%]2.80E-3 (0.28%)[0.25% 0.32%]3.83E-3 (0.38%)[0.35% 0.42%]0.00106
Panamint Valley0.002133.30E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.05%]5.70E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.07%]8.60E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.43E-3 (0.14%)[0.12% 0.17%]2.13E-3 (0.21%)[0.19% 0.24%]4.7E-4
Hunter Mountain-Saline Valley0.001312.40E-4 (0.02%)[0.02% 0.04%]4.10E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]5.90E-4 (0.06%)[0.05% 0.08%]9.10E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.30E-3 (0.13%)[0.11% 0.15%]3.5E-4
Owl Lake0.001233.20E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.05%]4.60E-4 (0.05%)[0.03% 0.06%]5.70E-4 (0.06%)[0.04% 0.07%]9.20E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.23E-3 (0.12%)[0.10% 0.15%]3.0E-4
Garlock (East)0.001032.10E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]3.40E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.05%]5.30E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]7.10E-4 (0.07%)[0.06% 0.09%]1.02E-3 (0.10%)[0.08% 0.12%]2.5E-4
Garlock (West)8.5E-42.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]3.60E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.05%]4.30E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]6.10E-4 (0.06%)[0.05% 0.08%]8.50E-4 (0.08%)[0.07% 0.11%]2.4E-4
Tank Canyon3.8E-46.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.50E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.20E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]3.80E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.05%]4.0E-5
San Andreas (Mojave N)3.2E-45.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.30E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]2.10E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]3.10E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]6.0E-5
San Andreas (Mojave S)3.0E-47.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.50E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.30E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.04%]3.00E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]7.0E-5
Little Lake2.6E-41.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.70E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.60E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]1.1E-4

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 38 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
Garlock (Central)0.001744.00E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.06%]6.80E-4 (0.07%)[0.05% 0.09%]8.60E-4 (0.09%)[0.07% 0.11%]1.27E-3 (0.13%)[0.11% 0.15%]1.74E-3 (0.17%)[0.15% 0.20%]5.0E-4
Hunter Mountain-Saline Valley0.001122.20E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]3.60E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.05%]4.90E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)[0.06% 0.10%]1.12E-3 (0.11%)[0.09% 0.14%]3.2E-4
Panamint Valley0.001122.20E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]3.60E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.05%]4.90E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]8.00E-4 (0.08%)[0.06% 0.10%]1.12E-3 (0.11%)[0.09% 0.14%]3.2E-4
Garlock (West)7.5E-41.80E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]3.30E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.05%]3.80E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.05%]5.40E-4 (0.05%)[0.04% 0.07%]7.50E-4 (0.07%)[0.06% 0.09%]1.9E-4
Garlock (East)3.8E-41.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.70E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.90E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]3.80E-4 (0.04%)[0.03% 0.05%]1.0E-4
San Andreas (Mojave N)3.2E-45.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.30E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.40E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]2.10E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]3.10E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]6.0E-5
San Andreas (Mojave S)2.8E-45.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.20E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.30E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]2.10E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.80E-4 (0.03%)[0.02% 0.04%]6.0E-5
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)2.1E-44.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.10E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]1.60E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]2.10E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]4.0E-5
Owl Lake2.0E-44.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]7.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]8.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.30E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]2.00E-4 (0.02%)[0.01% 0.03%]4.0E-5
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)1.3E-42.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]5.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]5.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.01%]9.00E-5 (0.01%)[0.00% 0.02%]1.30E-4 (0.01%)[0.01% 0.02%]2.0E-5

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 22 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTriggered 10 Year Mean CountTriggered 1 Day ProbTriggered 1 Day 95% ConfTriggered 1 Week ProbTriggered 1 Week 95% ConfTriggered 1 Month ProbTriggered 1 Month 95% ConfTriggered 1 Year ProbTriggered 1 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year ProbTriggered 10 Year 95% ConfTriggered 10 Year Primary Mean Count
San Andreas (Mojave N)4.0E-50.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]3.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]0.0
San Andreas (Mojave S)4.0E-50.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]3.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]0.0
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)4.0E-50.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]3.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]4.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]0.0
San Andreas (San Bernardino S)3.0E-50.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]3.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]0.0
San Andreas (San Gorgonio Pass-Garnet HIll)3.0E-50.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]3.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]0.0
Garlock (Central)2.0E-50.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]0.0
Garlock (East)2.0E-50.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]0.0
Garlock (West)2.0E-50.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]0.0
San Andreas (Big Bend)2.0E-50.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]0.0
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev2.0E-50.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.00%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]1.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]2.00E-5 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.01%]0.0

Fault Magnitude-Probability Distributions

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The first 5 sections (sorted by trigger rate) are plotted below. All fault MPDs are available here

1 Week1 Month1 Year10 Year
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD
MPDMPDMPDMPD

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagTriggered Ruptures (no spontaneous)Triggered Ruptures (primary aftershocks only)
M≥2.5Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 100000,
  "duration": 10.0,
  "startTimeMillis": 1562261628000,
  "includeSpontaneous": false,
  "randomSeed": 123456789,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_triggered_descendants",
      "descendantsOnly": true
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "reuseERFs": true,
  "simulationName": "Searles Valley M6.4",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2019_07_04-SearlesValleyM64-includeSpont-full_td-10yr",
  "triggerRuptures": [
    {
      "mag": 6.4,
      "latitude": 35.705,
      "longitude": -117.508,
      "depth": 8.7
    }
  ],
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.14,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED"
}