Spontaneous Results

Table Of Contents

• Magnitude Frequency Distribution
• Long Term Rate Variability
  • 162 Year Variability
  • 80 Year Variability
  • 28 Year Variability
  • Variability Duration Dependence
• Simulation Stationarity
• Section Participation
  • Section Participation Plots
  • Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table
  • M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table
  • M≥7 Parent Sections Table
  • M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table
  • M≥8 Parent Sections Table
• Gridded Nucleation
• JSON Input File

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Legend

• Mean (thick black line): mean annual rate across all 1000 catalogs
• 2.5%,97.5% (thin black lines): annual rate percentiles across all 1000 catalogs
• Median (thin blue line): median annual rate across all 1000 catalogs
• Mode (thin cyan line): modal annual rate across all 1000 catalogs (scaled to annualized value)
• Fault System Solution (brown line): long-term MFD from the UCERF3 fault system solution
• 1000 yr Probability (thin red line): 1000 year probability calculated as the fraction of catalogs with at least 1 occurrence
• 1000 yr Supraseismogenic Probability (thin dashed red line): same as above, but only for supraseismogenic ruptures on explicitly modeled UCERF3 faults
• 95% Conf (light red shaded region): binomial 95% confidence bounds on probability

Long Term Rate Variability

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162 Year Variability

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Download CSV Here

80 Year Variability

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Download CSV Here

28 Year Variability

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Download CSV Here

Variability Duration Dependence

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Download CSV Here

Simulation Stationarity

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Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min Mag	Complete Catalog (including spontaneous)	Ratio WRT Long-Term Model
All Supra. Seis.
M≥6.5
M≥7
M≥7.5
M≥8

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 313 with matching ruptures shown

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 306 with matching ruptures shown

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 274 with matching ruptures shown

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 221 with matching ruptures shown

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 71 with matching ruptures shown

Gridded Nucleation

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Min Mag	Complete Catalog (including spontaneous)	Ratio WRT Long-Term Model
M≥5
M≥6
M≥7

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 1000,
  "duration": 1000.0,
  "startYear": 2012,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 123456789,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "reuseERFs": false,
  "simulationName": "Spontaneous",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2019_06_05-Spontaneous-includeSpont-historicalCatalog-no_ert-1000yr",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": true,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "NO_ERT",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.14,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED"
}