Spontaneous Results

Spontaneous
Num Simulations1000
Start Time2012/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1325376000000
Duration1000 Years
Includes Spontaneous?true
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Historical Ruptures60366 Trigger Ruptures
First: M7.3 at 1852/01/05 04:40:39 UTC
Last: M3.2 at 2011/12/31 19:14:44 UTC
Largest: M7.9 at 1857/01/09 16:25:39 UTC

Table Of Contents

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution1000 yr Probability1000 yr Prob 95% Conf1000 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥58.5817.9819.1218.5928.8198.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.16.7956.3187.2206.8016.5846.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.25.3774.9865.7325.3855.4235.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.34.2513.9384.5424.2614.2704.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.43.3583.1023.5943.3643.4933.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.52.6502.4432.8382.6572.6642.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.62.0841.9192.2362.0862.1332.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.71.6371.5041.7601.6391.6741.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.81.2811.1761.3791.2851.2921.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.90.9850.8991.0660.9870.9981.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥60.7880.7140.8570.7910.8020.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.10.6140.5530.6690.6150.6190.6601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.20.4910.4410.5370.4910.4810.5291.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.30.3930.3500.4340.3940.4050.4201.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.40.3110.2750.3440.3120.3140.3321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.50.2420.2120.2720.2420.2380.2601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.60.1910.1640.2140.1900.1970.2051.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.70.1470.1260.1670.1470.1490.1601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.80.1170.0980.1340.1170.1120.1271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.90.0930.0770.1080.0930.0920.1001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥70.0730.0600.0870.0730.0730.0781.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.10.0560.0440.0680.0560.0590.0601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.20.0420.0320.0530.0420.0420.0451.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.30.0340.0250.0420.0340.0330.0351.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.40.0260.0190.0330.0260.0260.0271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.50.0180.0130.0240.0180.0190.0191.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.60.0139.00E-30.0180.0130.0140.0141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.79.02E-35.00E-30.0139.00E-39.00E-39.58E-31.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.86.19E-33.00E-39.00E-36.00E-36.00E-36.19E-31.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.93.33E-31.00E-36.00E-33.00E-34.00E-33.51E-30.984 (98.40%)[97.36% 99.05%]0.984 (98.40%)
M≥81.77E-30.0004.00E-32.00E-32.00E-32.03E-30.876 (87.60%)[85.36% 89.55%]0.876 (87.60%)
M≥8.17.83E-40.0002.00E-31.00E-30.0001.02E-30.583 (58.30%)[55.17% 61.37%]0.583 (58.30%)
M≥8.22.96E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0004.48E-40.267 (26.70%)[24.00% 29.58%]0.267 (26.70%)
M≥8.37.40E-50.0001.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-40.073 (7.30%)[5.80% 9.14%]0.073 (7.30%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)

Long Term Rate Variability

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162 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.5806898.543218.6111110.780114777.1234577.83333359.35185110.234568
5.16.79497346.7592596.67901230.62877025.6172846.1913587.4197538.135802
5.25.3769245.35802465.17283960.50817034.41358044.8827165.8765436.4382715
5.34.2513614.2283954.1543210.40952093.47530873.8518524.6543215.0987654
5.43.35829733.33950613.16049390.33203112.74074083.03703713.68518524.04321
5.52.6498142.63580252.54320980.26913752.1481482.3827162.91358023.1975307
5.62.0843942.0740742.01851840.219028981.67901231.87037042.30246932.5370371
5.71.6367121.62962961.60493830.178677131.3086421.4629631.82098772.006173
5.81.28131271.27160491.27160490.146449091.00617291.13580251.4259261.5802469
5.90.98465020.98148150.932098750.1184126140.771604960.864197551.10493831.2283951
6.00.78848660.78395060.746913550.099643590.604938270.691358030.88888890.99382716
6.10.61391870.61111110.604938270.083361760.462962960.53086420.697530870.79012346
6.20.490820970.487654330.475308660.070279640.364197520.419753070.56172840.63580245
6.30.393172830.38888890.38888890.0596764760.283950630.333333340.450617280.5185185
6.40.311212960.308641970.302469130.0511450470.216049390.259259250.364197520.41975307
6.50.242216050.240740750.23456790.0435045030.166666670.197530870.283950630.33333334
6.60.190581280.191358030.191358030.036684650.123456790.154320990.228395060.2654321
6.70.147201640.148148150.148148150.0310218390.092592590.117283950.179012340.20987654
6.80.117278810.117283950.104938270.0265433880.067901230.092592590.141975310.17283951
6.90.092747940.092592590.0864197540.0231363830.0493827160.067901230.117283950.14197531
7.00.073319960.0740740750.0740740750.0200368610.0370370370.0555555560.092592590.11728395
7.10.0560720150.0555555560.0555555560.0172135870.0246913580.0370370370.0740740750.09259259
7.20.0423148160.0432098770.0432098770.0144641590.0185185190.0308641980.0555555560.074074075
7.30.033611110.0308641980.0308641980.0124725810.0123456790.0185185190.0432098770.061728396
7.40.0259104930.0246913580.0246913580.0106809610.00617283960.0123456790.0370370370.049382716
7.50.0181656390.0185185190.0185185190.0086996090.00617283960.0123456790.0246913580.037037037
7.60.0134094650.0123456790.0123456790.0070862860.00.00617283960.0185185190.030864198
7.70.0090308650.00617283960.00617283960.0057381130.00.00617283960.0123456790.018518519
7.80.00619238660.00617283960.00617283960.0047061720.00.00.0123456790.018518519
7.90.00333127570.00.00.00374541620.00.00.00617283960.012345679
8.00.00176440330.00.00.00293130960.00.00.00617283960.0061728396
8.17.7777775E-40.00.00.00206714290.00.00.00.0061728396
8.22.932099E-40.00.00.00132274710.00.00.00.0061728396
8.37.304527E-50.00.06.675593E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

80 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.5797548.48758.51251.21534286.5257.3759.787511.2125
5.16.79439166.7256.46250.97424295.13755.8257.76258.875
5.25.37656165.31255.43750.782878944.054.61256.157.0625
5.34.25110964.24.150.628700443.1753.63754.8755.6
5.43.35807093.31253.28750.50700732.48752.86253.86254.425
5.52.64955932.6252.46250.408552021.93752.253.053.5
5.62.08416462.06252.01250.329851241.51251.76252.41252.775
5.71.63653541.6251.61250.267763351.1751.3751.92.2
5.81.28123961.26251.21250.217201840.91.06251.51.7375
5.90.98459790.9750.98750.174676660.6750.81251.16251.3625
6.00.788408340.7750.78750.146190850.5250.650.9251.1
6.10.613793730.60.550.122208790.40.50.73750.875
6.20.490715620.48750.46250.1031971350.31250.38750.58750.7125
6.30.393098950.38750.350.0883374660.23750.31250.4750.5875
6.40.31117290.30.30.0755431060.1750.23750.38750.475
6.50.242168750.23750.2250.064351580.1250.1750.31250.375
6.60.190543760.18750.1750.05512320.10.13750.250.3125
6.70.147185420.150.13750.047216240.06250.10.20.25
6.80.11731250.11250.11250.0408245060.050.0750.16250.2
6.90.092756250.08750.08750.0355232880.03750.06250.1250.175
7.00.073310420.0750.06250.0309314770.0250.03750.10.1375
7.10.0560572930.050.050.026843430.01250.0250.08750.1125
7.20.0422927070.03750.03750.0226798910.00.0250.06250.0875
7.30.0335708340.03750.0250.0197203180.00.01250.050.075
7.40.0258677080.0250.0250.0168969780.00.01250.03750.0625
7.50.0181333330.01250.01250.0139903460.00.00.03750.05
7.60.013393750.01250.01250.0117102220.00.00.0250.0375
7.70.0090166670.01250.00.0094735880.00.00.01250.025
7.80.00617604140.00.00.0077139290.00.00.01250.025
7.90.00332395830.00.00.0058437540.00.00.01250.0125
8.00.00175416670.00.00.00442207370.00.00.00.0125
8.17.7083334E-40.00.00.00300698960.00.00.00.0125
8.22.8958335E-40.00.00.0018804860.00.00.00.0
8.37.2916664E-50.00.09.5195434E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

28 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.08.581828.1785727.752.12171085.5357146.60714310.57142813.785714
5.16.79588566.55.7857141.69893534.3214295.2142868.39285810.928572
5.25.3776045.1428574.8214291.36304653.3571434.1071436.6428578.714286
5.34.25172334.0714293.8571431.09266642.6071433.255.2857146.892857
5.43.3586493.21428562.8928570.879961852.02.53571444.1785715.428571
5.52.65012652.53571442.3571430.71001041.53571431.96428573.32142854.321429
5.62.08458162.01.78571430.57158281.17857151.53571432.6428573.4285715
5.71.63686121.57142851.60714280.461808030.892857131.17857152.07142852.7142856
5.81.28148471.251.14285720.37319680.67857140.92857141.64285722.142857
5.90.98481940.964285730.892857130.300041560.50.67857141.28571431.6785715
6.00.78859490.750.750.251407180.357142870.535714271.03571431.3571428
6.10.614036740.607142870.57142860.210893630.250.392857130.82142861.0714285
6.20.49091630.46428570.46428570.179264890.178571430.321428570.67857140.89285713
6.30.393272460.392857130.357142870.15364910.142857150.250.535714270.75
6.40.311281620.28571430.28571430.131573840.107142860.178571430.428571430.60714287
6.50.242296930.214285720.214285720.112990880.0714285750.142857150.357142870.5
6.60.190652040.178571430.142857150.097242560.0357142870.107142860.28571430.39285713
6.70.147286730.142857150.107142860.083305880.00.0714285750.214285720.32142857
6.80.117356120.107142860.0714285750.0725571140.00.0357142870.178571430.2857143
6.90.092824490.0714285750.0714285750.063437580.00.0357142870.142857150.25
7.00.0733857150.0714285750.0357142870.0555784960.00.0357142870.142857150.21428572
7.10.056108160.0357142870.0357142870.047986890.00.00.107142860.17857143
7.20.042350.0357142870.0357142870.0408742170.00.00.0714285750.14285715
7.30.0336408170.0357142870.00.0359233880.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.40.0259244890.0357142870.00.0310581740.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.50.0181642860.00.00.025762380.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.60.0134061220.00.00.021591840.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.70.0090316330.00.00.017526480.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.80.00619081640.00.00.0144322740.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.90.00332551030.00.00.0106008080.00.00.00.035714287
8.00.00176326530.00.00.00779832760.00.00.00.035714287
8.17.785714E-40.00.00.00521543160.00.00.00.0
8.22.9285715E-40.00.00.00322082520.00.00.00.0
8.37.346939E-50.00.00.00161820380.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Variability Duration Dependence

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Duration Dependence Plot

Download CSV Here

Duration (years)MeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
1.08.5805527.05.08.9335281.03.012.029.0
4.08.5805527.256.05.06509353.55.011.522.75
8.08.5805527.6256.6253.76638444.255.62511.2519.0
12.08.5808297.83333357.08333353.15241074.66666656.011.16666717.083334
16.08.5814837.93757.252.7654535.06.187511.015.8125
20.08.5805528.057.62.48886875.26.3510.814.95
24.08.5810318.1257.41666652.28743865.3756.510.66666714.333333
28.08.581828.1785727.752.12171085.5357146.60714310.57142813.785714
32.08.5814838.257.531251.9899875.656256.7187510.4687513.4375
36.08.5806898.2777787.751.8729535.77777776.805555310.41666713.0
40.08.5805528.3257.81.77442315.856.87510.312.75
44.08.5809898.3409097.8409091.68777325.9318186.954545510.22727312.5
48.08.5797548.3541678.1666671.61478856.02083357.010.16666712.270833
52.08.5817868.3846158.4807691.55098896.11538467.07692310.11538512.115385
56.08.5802788.4107148.0357141.47749756.1964297.14285710.05357211.910714
60.08.5797548.4166678.21.42345396.257.29.98333411.766666
64.08.5797548.43758.5781251.37460416.31257.218759.95312511.578125
68.08.5802788.4558827.82352921.32682296.3529417.26470579.897058511.470589
72.08.5822448.4722228.2777781.29318856.41666657.31944479.84722211.402778
76.08.5817868.4868428.2105261.24442436.46052657.34210549.81578911.263158
80.08.5797548.48758.51251.21534286.5257.3759.787511.2125
84.08.5813468.4880958.0119051.17731456.5357147.4285719.7511.142858
88.08.5809898.58.5795451.14303236.57954557.45454559.72727311.022727
92.08.5813058.58.3043481.12245836.6195657.45652159.69565210.956522
96.08.5797548.5104178.843751.08807116.68757.48958359.66666710.916667
100.08.5805528.538.251.05389426.717.539.6410.78
200.08.5805528.5458.4750.68691317.337.9059.269.985
300.08.5824658.5833338.6233330.54972387.518.0233349.129.683333
400.08.5856398.5858.5950.467235247.668.13259.05759.475
500.08.5805528.5848.4280.401030877.798.1988.989.35
600.08.6155148.6316678.660.35747457.9058.288.9659.288333
700.08.5994628.6071428.9142860.33629787.98.2685728.9357159.221429
800.08.5856398.593758.601250.317195277.913758.271258.901259.18125
900.08.5824658.5933338.620.301775727.94666678.2955558.8877779.132222
1000.08.5805528.5928.8190.288593447.9818.2948.8629.121

Simulation Stationarity

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Stationarity Plot

Moment Rate Plot

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term Model
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 313 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 1000 Year ProbTotal 1000 Year 95% ConfLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0536651.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.047238618
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0345451.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.03419009
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0278041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.016211301
Mendocino0.0207411.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.028919645
Cerro Prieto0.0172171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.015186971
Imperial0.0135881.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.014349225
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0125771.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.009440966
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0124621.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.013392845
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0120931.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.008909097
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev0.0117011.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.008455746

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 306 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 1000 Year ProbTotal 1000 Year 95% ConfLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
Cerro Prieto0.0147591.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.013091409
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0136161.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.012216282
Mendocino0.0112731.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.012516479
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0106891.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.008140643
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0099981.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0067372364
Imperial0.0092951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0096799815
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0088211.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.009075132
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0087861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0067538084
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0085911.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.006658823
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0085241.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.00821497

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 274 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 1000 Year ProbTotal 1000 Year 95% ConfLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0085891.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.007612852
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.006941.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.005722108
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0068461.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0057427646
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0066681.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0052993274
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0066141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0062776324
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0060141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.005556243
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0057771.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.004749499
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0057491.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0051040766
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0057411.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0049385377
Cerro Prieto0.0054731.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0048668785

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 221 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 1000 Year ProbTotal 1000 Year 95% ConfLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0055981.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0049894005
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0051751.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0044245115
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0050381.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0045267143
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0047751.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.004201805
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.004591.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0045710644
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0045441.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0040264158
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0041511.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0037959707
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0039740.995 (99.50%)[98.77% 99.82%]0.0038110747
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM0.0037091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0035515025
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0035260.996 (99.60%)[98.90% 99.87%]0.0032088608

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 71 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 1000 Year ProbTotal 1000 Year 95% ConfLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0015650.851 (85.10%)[82.71% 87.22%]0.0018098651
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0015280.846 (84.60%)[82.18% 86.75%]0.0017508415
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0015250.846 (84.60%)[82.18% 86.75%]0.0017453934
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0015220.841 (84.10%)[81.65% 86.28%]0.0017636013
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0014940.839 (83.90%)[81.44% 86.09%]0.0017193216
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0014630.830 (83.00%)[80.49% 85.25%]0.0016807786
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0012940.786 (78.60%)[75.90% 81.08%]0.0015122787
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0011890.727 (72.70%)[69.80% 75.42%]0.0014250289
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM8.38E-40.596 (59.60%)[56.48% 62.65%]0.0010319632
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM7.38E-40.559 (55.90%)[52.76% 59.00%]9.2652056E-4

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term Model
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 1000,
  "duration": 1000.0,
  "startYear": 2012,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 123456789,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "reuseERFs": false,
  "simulationName": "Spontaneous",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2019_06_05-Spontaneous-includeSpont-historicalCatalog-no_ert-1000yr",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": true,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "NO_ERT",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.14,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED"
}