Spontaneous Results

Spontaneous
Num Simulations1000
Start Time2012/01/01 00:00:00 UTC
Start Time Epoch Milliseconds1325376000000
Duration1000 Years
Includes Spontaneous?true
Trigger Ruptures(none)
Historical Ruptures60366 Trigger Ruptures
First: M7.3 at 1852/01/05 04:40:39 UTC
Last: M3.2 at 2011/12/31 19:14:44 UTC
Largest: M7.9 at 1857/01/09 16:25:39 UTC

Table Of Contents

Magnitude Frequency Distribution

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Legend

MFD Plot

MagMean2.5 %ile97.5 %ileMedianModeLong-Term Fault System Solution1000 yr Probability1000 yr Prob 95% Conf1000 yr Supra-Seis Prob
M≥57.3996.8098.0537.3887.4188.6091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.15.8515.3686.3615.8475.8976.8301.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.24.6204.2245.0374.6134.5635.4171.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.33.6433.3264.0033.6333.5724.2951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.42.8672.6093.1492.8592.7843.4041.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.52.2502.0452.4752.2452.2042.6961.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.61.7601.5891.9461.7561.8152.1331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.71.3701.2351.5171.3641.3991.6861.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.81.0600.9521.1821.0571.0411.3311.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥5.90.8030.7180.9020.8020.8141.0361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥60.6330.5640.7140.6300.6250.8361.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.10.4840.4260.5510.4820.4800.6601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.20.3810.3300.4370.3800.3660.5291.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.30.3010.2630.3450.3000.3100.4201.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.40.2340.1990.2710.2330.2350.3321.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.50.1790.1490.2120.1790.1750.2601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.60.1390.1110.1670.1390.1300.2051.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.70.1070.0850.1310.1060.1100.1601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.80.0840.0670.1040.0840.0830.1271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥6.90.0650.0510.0820.0650.0650.1001.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥70.0510.0380.0660.0510.0520.0781.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.10.0380.0280.0500.0380.0370.0601.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.20.0290.0200.0390.0290.0290.0451.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.30.0230.0150.0310.0220.0220.0351.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.40.0170.0110.0240.0170.0180.0271.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.50.0127.00E-30.0180.0120.0120.0191.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.69.45E-35.00E-30.0149.00E-39.00E-30.0141.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.76.73E-33.00E-30.0117.00E-37.00E-39.58E-31.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]1.000 (100.00%)
M≥7.84.76E-32.00E-38.00E-35.00E-34.00E-36.19E-30.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]0.998 (99.80%)
M≥7.92.66E-30.0005.00E-33.00E-32.00E-33.51E-30.971 (97.10%)[95.81% 98.01%]0.971 (97.10%)
M≥81.51E-30.0004.00E-31.00E-31.00E-32.03E-30.841 (84.10%)[81.65% 86.28%]0.841 (84.10%)
M≥8.17.21E-40.0002.00E-31.00E-30.0001.02E-30.547 (54.70%)[51.55% 57.81%]0.547 (54.70%)
M≥8.23.28E-40.0002.00E-30.0000.0004.48E-40.295 (29.50%)[26.71% 32.45%]0.295 (29.50%)
M≥8.36.50E-50.0001.00E-30.0000.0001.02E-40.065 (6.50%)[5.09% 8.26%]0.065 (6.50%)
M≥8.40.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.50.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.60.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.70.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.80.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥8.90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)
M≥90.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000 (0.00%)[0.00% 0.48%]0.000 (0.00%)

Long Term Rate Variability

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162 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.3982197.37037047.5802470.699054666.14197546.69753078.0925928.845679
5.15.85005665.82716045.79012350.56377654.8395065.29012356.40123467.0061727
5.24.6196454.59876544.43827150.454549553.79629644.16666655.07407435.5493827
5.33.64252693.62345673.62345670.367334842.97530873.27777774.00617274.3950615
5.42.866752.8518522.83950610.296971052.32716062.5740743.16666673.4753087
5.52.24919252.23456792.23456790.240847741.81481482.01234582.4938272.7530863
5.61.75993111.75308641.81481480.195578141.41358031.56790131.95679012.1604939
5.71.36997121.35802471.38888880.158725541.09259261.20987651.53086421.7037038
5.81.05994961.05555561.01234570.129307940.82716050.932098751.1913581.3333334
5.90.80324180.79629630.802469130.1039484440.61111110.697530870.90740741.0185186
6.00.632596730.62962960.604938270.0868376050.475308660.54938270.71604940.8148148
6.10.483851850.48148150.456790120.071985180.351851850.413580240.55555560.6296296
6.20.38095370.376543220.370370360.06029990.271604930.320987640.43827160.50617284
6.30.30053190.29629630.290123460.0509626530.209876540.253086420.351851850.4074074
6.40.233638880.228395060.228395060.0430157070.154320990.191358030.27777780.32098764
6.50.179034980.179012340.172839510.036503260.111111110.141975310.216049390.25308642
6.60.13875720.135802460.135802460.0309039190.0864197540.111111110.166666670.2037037
6.70.106544240.104938270.098765430.0264121550.0617283960.080246910.129629630.16049382
6.80.083943420.080246910.080246910.0225034620.0432098770.0617283960.104938270.12962963
6.90.0651676950.0617283960.0617283960.019424070.0308641980.0432098770.0864197540.10493827
7.00.050963990.0493827160.0493827160.0166484710.0246913580.0370370370.067901230.086419754
7.10.0382644050.0370370370.0370370370.0140922480.0123456790.0246913580.0493827160.06790123
7.20.0285997950.0308641980.0308641980.0118059110.00617283960.0185185190.0370370370.055555556
7.30.0225329210.0246913580.0185185190.0101664970.00617283960.0123456790.0308641980.043209877
7.40.0173323040.0185185190.0185185190.00887813050.00.00617283960.0246913580.037037037
7.50.0123281890.0123456790.0123456790.0073187240.00.00617283960.0185185190.030864198
7.60.00940637850.00617283960.00617283960.00615098230.00.00617283960.0123456790.024691358
7.70.0066975310.00617283960.00617283960.0051604770.00.00.0123456790.018518519
7.80.0047551440.00617283960.00617283960.0043692340.00.00.00617283960.012345679
7.90.00264609050.00.00.00343298940.00.00.00617283960.012345679
8.00.00150.00.00.00274200020.00.00.00617283960.0061728396
8.17.1090535E-40.00.00.00198032220.00.00.00.0061728396
8.23.2407406E-40.00.00.0013768620.00.00.00.0061728396
8.36.481481E-50.00.06.292507E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

80 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.3981947.37.3251.03388675.6756.3758.41259.7375
5.15.84999375.7755.63750.829081364.46255.0256.66257.7375
5.24.6194584.56254.31250.665500643.51253.96255.2756.1
5.33.6423493.58753.41250.53552862.73753.1254.16254.825
5.42.86663652.8252.76250.430897952.1252.453.28753.8125
5.52.24911982.2252.250.346610641.651.91252.58753.0125
5.61.75990831.73751.73750.279617731.2751.48752.0252.375
5.71.36998441.351.33750.225817010.9751.151.58751.8625
5.81.05990211.051.050.182869610.73750.88751.23751.4625
5.90.803178130.80.81250.146641880.550.66250.951.125
6.00.63253120.6250.650.12117050.4250.51250.750.8875
6.10.483873960.4750.48750.10024160.30.38750.58750.7
6.20.381018760.3750.3750.084290960.23750.30.46250.5625
6.30.30061770.30.30.0717858750.1750.2250.3750.45
6.40.23371250.2250.2250.0615607050.1250.1750.28750.3625
6.50.179076050.1750.1750.0528173560.08750.1250.2250.3
6.60.1387750.13750.13750.044894270.06250.10.18750.2375
6.70.106534380.10.10.038464890.03750.0750.150.1875
6.80.083930210.0750.0750.0331700440.0250.050.11250.15
6.90.065150.06250.06250.028723710.01250.03750.08750.125
7.00.050956250.050.050.0250270120.01250.0250.0750.1
7.10.0382291670.03750.03750.0214409640.00.01250.06250.0875
7.20.028556250.0250.0250.018222740.00.01250.050.0625
7.30.0224833340.0250.01250.0159177580.00.01250.03750.0625
7.40.0172947920.01250.01250.01379660.00.00.0250.05
7.50.01230.01250.01250.0114801530.00.00.0250.0375
7.60.0093854160.01250.00.0097918470.00.00.0250.025
7.70.00668750.00.00.0082219630.00.00.01250.025
7.80.004743750.00.00.00693727940.00.00.01250.025
7.90.0026406250.00.00.0053028850.00.00.01250.0125
8.00.0014968750.00.00.00411587950.00.00.00.0125
8.17.114583E-40.00.00.00289616220.00.00.00.0125
8.23.2395835E-40.00.00.0019861670.00.00.00.0125
8.36.5625E-50.00.09.0336805E-40.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

28 Year Variability

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Fixed Time Plot

Download CSV Here

MagnitudeMeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
5.07.3980397.0714296.251.74963224.9285715.8214298.96428611.75
5.15.8499115.5714295.2857141.40206663.82142854.5714297.1071439.321428
5.24.6195554.4285713.96428561.12428022.96428563.6071435.6428577.392857
5.33.6424093.53.32142850.90247422.28571442.82142854.4642865.821429
5.42.8666482.752.50.72626171.752.17857153.53571444.607143
5.52.24916122.17857152.03571440.58387571.32142851.71428572.78571443.642857
5.61.75983981.71428571.57142850.469813671.01.32142852.21428562.857143
5.71.3699961.32142851.250.378164350.751.01.71428572.25
5.81.05990821.03571430.964285730.304631470.57142860.751.35714281.75
5.90.80321530.785714270.750.243875060.392857130.57142861.03571431.3571428
6.00.632582660.607142870.57142860.20241980.28571430.428571430.82142861.0714285
6.10.483843860.46428570.428571430.168624040.214285720.321428570.642857130.85714287
6.20.38093060.357142870.357142870.142738330.142857150.250.535714270.6785714
6.30.30052960.28571430.28571430.122154470.107142860.178571430.428571430.5714286
6.40.233658160.214285720.214285720.104695450.0714285750.142857150.321428570.4642857
6.50.179043870.178571430.142857150.089965420.0357142870.107142860.250.39285713
6.60.138769390.142857150.107142860.07698020.00.0714285750.214285720.32142857
6.70.106561220.107142860.0714285750.066325950.00.0357142870.178571430.25
6.80.0839581640.0714285750.0714285750.0577940570.00.0357142870.142857150.21428572
6.90.065197960.0714285750.0357142870.0500861970.00.00.107142860.17857143
7.00.0509816330.0357142870.0357142870.0439011750.00.00.107142860.14285715
7.10.0382653070.0357142870.0357142870.037631470.00.00.0714285750.14285715
7.20.0286071430.0357142870.00.0323484280.00.00.0714285750.10714286
7.30.0225438770.00.00.0283652620.00.00.0357142870.10714286
7.40.0173448980.00.00.0246855430.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.50.012326530.00.00.0207169340.00.00.0357142870.071428575
7.60.0094030610.00.00.0178378170.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.70.00669387770.00.00.0149886310.00.00.0357142870.035714287
7.80.004750.00.00.01263990250.00.00.00.035714287
7.90.00264387760.00.00.0094708050.00.00.00.035714287
8.00.00149795910.00.00.0071796710.00.00.00.035714287
8.17.112245E-40.00.00.00498956350.00.00.00.0
8.23.265306E-40.00.00.00339934040.00.00.00.0
8.36.530612E-50.00.00.0015258320.00.00.00.0
8.40.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.50.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.60.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.70.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.80.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
8.90.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
9.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Variability Duration Dependence

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Duration Dependence Plot

Download CSV Here

Duration (years)MeanMedianModeStd. Dev.2.5 %-ile16 %-ile84 %-ile97.5 %-ile
1.07.3993316.05.07.34695151.03.011.023.0
4.07.3993316.55.754.13054233.04.59.7518.5
8.07.3993316.6255.753.0763053.8755.09.515.875
12.07.39971886.83333356.16666652.57487964.255.33333359.33333314.5
16.07.3996336.8756.31252.25777034.55.59.2513.4375
20.07.3993316.956.252.04016164.75.659.1512.7
24.07.3994287.04166656.41666651.87748834.83333355.759.08333312.208333
28.07.3980397.0714296.251.74963224.9285715.8214298.96428611.75
32.07.3996337.093756.93751.63928095.031255.906258.937511.40625
36.07.3982197.1111116.72222231.55403665.1111115.94444478.86111111.166667
40.07.3993317.156.551.47177145.26.0258.77510.9
44.07.39810237.1818186.751.40206865.27272756.0681828.7510.681818
48.07.3981947.18756.95833351.34572485.31256.1258.70833310.5625
52.07.400027.21153836.86538461.29473055.38461546.1730778.65384610.423077
56.07.3984177.2321436.8751.25220725.4107146.1785718.62510.303572
60.07.3981947.2333337.31666661.20348245.4833336.2333338.58333310.183333
64.07.3981947.2656256.593751.16349955.5156256.2656258.5312510.015625
68.07.3984177.2794126.8970591.12913635.55882366.29411758.59.926471
72.07.39890057.27777776.68055531.0944055.6111116.31944478.4722229.875
76.07.400027.28947357.27631571.06602125.6447376.3552638.4342119.789474
80.07.3981947.37.3251.03388675.6756.3758.41259.7375
84.07.39841037.30952367.4285711.01060435.7023816.4047628.3928589.642858
88.07.39810237.3181827.27272750.977397265.73863656.42045458.3636369.545455
92.07.39893677.31521757.21739150.961254665.76086956.43478258.3478269.532609
96.07.3981947.32291657.23958350.93787855.79166656.468758.3229179.4375
100.07.3993317.327.420.91970285.826.498.319.4
200.07.3993317.367.2750.62213416.286.7958.018.74
300.07.3972227.3666677.3266670.51437596.466.8866677.98.51
400.07.40507367.397.390.456828426.55256.957.8758.3425
500.07.3993317.3747.330.405918426.6826.9887.8128.238
600.07.43040667.4057.280.382908466.67166667.0557.81666668.16
700.07.41434867.40285737.32428550.36528166.747.047.80714278.155714
800.07.40507367.388757.510.34683496.746257.063757.758.0925
900.07.3972227.3788897.37777760.329284766.8011117.0611117.71888888.057777
1000.07.3993317.3887.4180.318104836.8097.0897.7228.053

Simulation Stationarity

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Stationarity Plot

Moment Rate Plot

Section Participation

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Section Participation Plots

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term Model
All Supra. Seis.Participation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥6.5Participation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7Participation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥7.5Participation PlotParticipation Plot
M≥8Participation PlotParticipation Plot

Supra-Seismogenic Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 313 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 1000 Year ProbTotal 1000 Year 95% ConfLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.044561.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.047238618
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0286551.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.03419009
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0195091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.016211301
Mendocino0.0179071.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.028919645
Cerro Prieto0.0139591.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.015186971
Imperial0.0115781.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.014349225
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0106671.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.013392845
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0096431.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.009440966
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0088091.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.008909097
Elsinore (Glen Ivy) rev0.0085821.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.008455746

M≥6.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 306 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 1000 Year ProbTotal 1000 Year 95% ConfLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
Cerro Prieto0.0119521.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.013091409
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0109811.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.012216282
Mendocino0.0091151.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.012516479
Hayward (So) 2011 CFM0.0081661.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.008140643
Imperial0.007951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0096799815
Brawley (Seismic Zone) alt 10.0075181.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.009075132
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0073941.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.00821497
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0065651.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0067372364
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0062121.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.006658823
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0059671.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0067538084

M≥7 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 273 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 1000 Year ProbTotal 1000 Year 95% ConfLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0069841.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.007612852
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM0.0056981.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0062776324
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0052951.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0057427646
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0052851.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.005722108
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0046331.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0052993274
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0046190.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.005556243
Cerro Prieto0.0043330.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.0048668785
San Andreas (Offshore) 2011 CFM0.0042641.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0049385377
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0042561.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0051040766
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0040981.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0045623486

M≥7.5 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 207 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 1000 Year ProbTotal 1000 Year 95% ConfLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0041651.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0049894005
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.003971.000 (100.00%)[99.52% 100.00%]0.0044245115
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.0037680.999 (99.90%)[99.35% 99.99%]0.004201805
San Andreas (North Coast) 2011 CFM0.0037130.989 (98.90%)[97.98% 99.42%]0.0045710644
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0036970.997 (99.70%)[99.05% 99.92%]0.0045267143
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0036030.998 (99.80%)[99.20% 99.97%]0.0040264158
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0033250.984 (98.40%)[97.36% 99.05%]0.0038110747
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM0.0031140.984 (98.40%)[97.36% 99.05%]0.0035515025
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0030020.988 (98.80%)[97.85% 99.35%]0.0037959707
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0028430.986 (98.60%)[97.60% 99.20%]0.0032088608

M≥8 Parent Sections Table

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First 10 of 68 with matching ruptures shown

Parent NameTotal Mean Annual RateTotal 1000 Year ProbTotal 1000 Year 95% ConfLong-Term Fault System Solution Rate
San Andreas (Mojave N)0.0013310.804 (80.40%)[77.77% 82.79%]0.0018098651
San Andreas (Carrizo) rev0.001330.801 (80.10%)[77.46% 82.50%]0.0017508415
San Andreas (Big Bend)0.0013190.799 (79.90%)[77.25% 82.31%]0.0017453934
San Andreas (Cholame) rev0.0013030.790 (79.00%)[76.31% 81.46%]0.0017193216
San Andreas (Mojave S)0.0012880.787 (78.70%)[76.00% 81.17%]0.0017636013
San Andreas (San Bernardino N)0.0012240.768 (76.80%)[74.03% 79.36%]0.0016807786
San Andreas (Parkfield)0.0011650.740 (74.00%)[71.14% 76.67%]0.0015122787
San Andreas (Creeping Section) 2011 CFM0.0010910.704 (70.40%)[67.45% 73.20%]0.0014250289
San Andreas (Santa Cruz Mts) 2011 CFM8.05E-40.588 (58.80%)[55.67% 61.86%]0.0010319632
San Andreas (Peninsula) 2011 CFM7.23E-40.550 (55.00%)[51.85% 58.11%]9.2652056E-4

Gridded Nucleation

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Min MagComplete Catalog (including spontaneous)Ratio WRT Long-Term Model
M≥5Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥6Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot
M≥7Nucleation PlotNucleation Plot

JSON Input File

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{
  "numSimulations": 1000,
  "duration": 1000.0,
  "startYear": 2012,
  "includeSpontaneous": true,
  "randomSeed": 123456789,
  "binaryOutput": true,
  "binaryOutputFilters": [
    {
      "prefix": "results_complete",
      "descendantsOnly": false
    },
    {
      "prefix": "results_m5_preserve_chain",
      "minMag": 5.0,
      "preserveChainBelowMag": true,
      "descendantsOnly": false
    }
  ],
  "forceRecalc": false,
  "reuseERFs": false,
  "simulationName": "Spontaneous",
  "numRetries": 3,
  "outputDir": "${ETAS_SIM_DIR}/2019_06_05-Spontaneous-includeSpont-historicalCatalog-full_td-1000yr",
  "triggerCatalog": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog.txt",
  "triggerCatalogSurfaceMappings": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/u3_historical_catalog_finite_fault_mappings.xml",
  "treatTriggerCatalogAsSpontaneous": true,
  "cacheDir": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/cache_fm3p1_ba",
  "fssFile": "${ETAS_LAUNCHER}/inputs/2013_05_10-ucerf3p3-production-10runs_COMPOUND_SOL_FM3_1_SpatSeisU3_MEAN_BRANCH_AVG_SOL.zip",
  "probModel": "FULL_TD",
  "applySubSeisForSupraNucl": true,
  "totRateScaleFactor": 1.14,
  "gridSeisCorr": true,
  "timeIndependentERF": false,
  "griddedOnly": false,
  "imposeGR": false,
  "includeIndirectTriggering": true,
  "gridSeisDiscr": 0.1,
  "catalogCompletenessModel": "RELAXED"
}